Wall Street is quaking today. The New York Stock exchange second neckline has broken as well as the first. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks. Markets could crash in some countries.

Baltic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. Not only did the Dow Rails fail to confirm the DOW industrials buy signal but the Rails and Industrials are testing lows again and could break down and both say sell today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Bloomberg reported that Facebook’s early investor, Saverin, joins a growing number of people giving up U.S. citizenship ahead of a possible increase in tax rates for top earners. The Brazilian-born resident of Singapore is one of several people who helped Mark Zuckerberg start Facebook and stand to reap obscene potential billions of dollars after the world’s largest social network holds its IPO. Saverin’s name is on a list of socialists who chose to renounce citizenship as of April 30, published by the Internal Revenue Service. Saverin made that move “around September” of last year, according to his spokesman. He prefers to go back to his own Banana Republic than pay taxes to the Obama Banana Republic. One reason for the Obama Great Depression is… Obama is driving wealth into cash, not investment, and he is driving wealthy people out of the USA. Obama does not understand that when taxes approach socialist Banana Republic levels, then raising taxes actually decreases tax revenue. Obama is not nearly as smart as Ronald Regan who lowered taxes, got more tax revenue, reduced the budget deficit and started America’s greatest growth period in the second half of the 20th century.

Jamie Dimon apparently is a big socialist investment looser who supports of Obama and has visited the White House a reported 16 times since the Obama Depression moved in.  MIT Sloan School professor and former IMF chief economist, Simon Johnson , says Jamie Dimon should also resign for taking such a stupid risk after taking the USA bailout.  Jamie got over $50 Million in salary and bonuses so far and this loss proves he did not earn it. Even Jamie admits it was a major mistake and fired three underlings. Incompetent Obama friends should not be allowed to profit from bankrupting America Companies.

http://compliancesearch.com/wallstreetjobreport/should-jamie-dimon-resign-over-trading-loss/

Governor Walker defeats Obama Union bosses and their attempt recall him for ending union control over the State budget.

Gallup reported that 61% registered voters think business executive Mitt Romney, if elected president, would do a very good or good job of handling the economy compared to 52% for Obama.  Obama is beginning to complain about negative media.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 48% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided. Given the chance, 68% would vote to replace the entire Congress and start from scratch.

Rasmussen was within 0.5% accuracy on both candidates in the 2008 election.  Other polls are usually off by more than 2%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



World market this week

Risk of crashing world stock markets is at a high now. The pall of the Obama 2008 campaign declared worldwide Great Depression grew last month as European exports and consumer demand dropped in March and as the euro region’s spreading fiscal crisis undermined the economy further.

The spread investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German debt widened to a euro-era record of more than 5 percentage points. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain faces being shut out of financial markets.

Greece’s 2 percent security maturing in February 2023 declined for a 12th day, pushing the price down to 13.54 percent.

Irish two-year yields jumped 55 basis points to 6.84 percent. .55/(6.84-.55) = 8.7% loss in value in one day.

France auctioned two-, three-, four- and five-year securities. The average yield on the September 2014 notes was 0.74 percent, compared with 0.85 percent at the last auction on April 19. On the February 2017 debt, it was 1.72 percent, down from 1.83 percent in the previous sale. Interest rates fall as depression gloom descends. Europe is becoming another failed socialist Japan. Japan has been stuck with low interest and low growth for over twenty years.

Singapore Airlines Ltd., flying to Athens since 1972, will halt the service to the Greek capital starting October because of weak demand.

China has declined for more than a year now and may be seeking a bottom. A triangle is forming indicating the upper and lower resistance levels are closing. But so far both the lows and the highs are going lower. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets are still lower than last year’s high and look like the head and shoulder sell signal is getting worse.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EMERV+Interactive#symbol=^merv;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(100,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



American Economy

Wall street is beginning to shake now.  Hedgefund managers are running scared, so scared no one dares to say anything that could rock the boat. We are on the cusp of a market collapse similar to last August

Retail Sales Apr 0.1% down from 0.8% bad

Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.1% 0 down from 0.8% bad

CPI Apr 0.0% 0 down from 0.3% deflationary, bad

Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat 0.2% OK

Empire Manufacturing May 17.1 up from 6.6 good

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $36.2B up from $10.1B good

Business Inventories Mar 0.3% down from 0.6% good

NAHB Housing Market Index May 29 up from 25 good

Today

May 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 05/12

May 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Apr

May 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Apr

May 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Apr

May 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr

May 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/12

May 16 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 4/25

This Week

May 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/12

May 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/05

May 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed May

May 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Apr



Market outlook May 16, 2012

A major “Head and Shoulders Sell signal” was give in the NYSE. The risk of world wide market crashes is high now.

More and more analysts were pointing out that the market is topping and has not been able to break out the top. Selling was broad-based again yesterday on higher volume. We are testing lows again and a downside breakout is again a real threat today.

he DJI has some grossly inflated stock prices and is no longer reflecting the stock market because people go to the DJI when they are afraid and seek safety during uncertainty. Consequently we no longer see the DJI as a safe haven.

No Dow Rails confirmation means there is no DOW buy signal since the collapse in August of 2011. It is still looking like a head and shoulder Dow sell signal forming not a buy signal. The Rails are testing lows again and could break down today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

n a quarterly cycle basis (look at 6 months) sell signal was given. The New York Stock exchange second neckline has broken as well as the first. Usually the market plunges when the second neckline is also broken. On an annual cycle basis (look at 2009 to today) it appears the head and shoulders is already in place and the market is about to break down for that mini cycle. On an economic business cycle basis (up to 20 + years) it shows the economy peaked in early 2000 and began to decline during the Clinton administration. For an Obama Great Depression to be declared the market would need to drop another 20% from this current level. That could happen if the Obama Regime is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is beginning to soar and should be above 40 in a few weeks as markets crash in some countries. A sharp computer sell-off could now trigger huge stop-losses and a plunge below the lows of 2000. The Obama-Holden regime will get even uglier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

altic Dry Index is declining again and less than 10% of its 2008 high. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:

Markets are tumbling today.

Asian markets were down again last night. China down –1.2%, Hong Kong down -3.2%, India down –1.8%, S. Korea down –3.8%, Taiwan down –2.2%, Japan down –1.1%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of –1.5% to +0.3%

American market futures are flat at about –0.1% in after hour trading at 7:00 AM EST