We need to vote the “Obama Evil Empire” out of office. Otherwise when the Obama FED Ponzi scheme is recognized US interest rates on debt will soar and pension funds and conservative investor cash holdings will evaporate. There could also be a run to throw out the dollar that could wipe out cash that corporations are holding on their balance sheets. If a socialist is in office at the time he will enjoy the crisis and use it to nationalize major sectors starting with the US Banks. We expect bank stocks would quickly become worthless. That is what socialists in Britain have done in the past. Years later conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thacher privatized British banks again but the people who lost everything got nothing back. America has never faced a socialist government like Obama’s before and Americans do not realize that socialists make their gains by creating and claiming they are managing the crisis when in reality they maintain the crisis and claim they had to because free enterprise has failed.

But in America’s 230-year history free enterprise has never gone bankrupt. Free enterprise erases failed ideas like socialism in a regenerative creative process. Just as Obama blames Bush for everything… the socialists always blame capitalism for the destruction the socialists spread. The USSR survived and oppressed their citizens for about 70 years. The USSR’s most popular and successful leaders were Yeltsin and Gorbachev who put an end to the rule of the socialists and broke up their “evil empire.”


Forty years ago, the Club of Rome wrote a best-selling report warning humanity that western prosperity was on a collision course with the world's finite resources and that the only way to avoid a crash was to stop economic growth. The predictions proved spectacularly wrong. They predicted that gold might run out as early as 1979 and would certainly do so by 1999. We were to run out of fossil fuels by 2020. That was based on sophisticated MIT models and the report was 100% wrong preserving the 100% record of the environmentalists on every disaster they have predicted.

Environmental Alarmism, Then and Now, The Club of Rome’s Problem -- and Ours
http://www.cfr.org/energyenvironment/environmental-alarmism-then-now/p28606

The WSJ Morning MarketBeat today said, “Nobody thought earnings season would be quite this bad, and if companies are struggling, it will likely be another blow for an already weak jobs market.”

The U.S. Fed and European Central Bank face a critical test this week amid heightened expectations that they are moving toward new coordinated Ponzi schemes to tackle fragility in the global economy with their usual unintended Ponzi consequence of a complete collapse.

The only difference between Obama’s Ponzi Scheme and the one Greece was using is the Greeks were borrowing from the EU and America has borrowed primarily from the novice China. China does not understand Obama is playing on the Chinese. China is getting credits ten years of credits that in ten years will be worth as much as all the Greek worthless credits. Unlike Bernie’s Ponzi scheme, Obama’s spend with no taxation is plain for everyone to see but China and the EU are fooled because Obama rejects American free enterprise, and wants Nigerian/Indonesian religions, economics and culture. Obama thinks America is stealing valuable minerals from developing countries and giving them worthless material things. Obama goes not believe in competition. He wants government o mandate what health care, recreation, and food that people can have. When China regulates everything he thinks competition is not needed because the government knows best.

Investors continued to pull money out of equity mutual funds in the first half of this year at a high pace relative to the two previous years. At the same time the equities market has become more illiquid and cannot support rapid in or out flows without massive volatility. The Investment Company Institute said $55 billion exited in the first six months this year, compared to $24.6 billion in the first six months of 2010, and $13.6 billion the first six months last year. We are warning that we have been in a bear market since August 2011.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney stuck in a 47% to 44%dead heat with Obama. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


World market this week
Half of India is under an electricity blackout.

Signs of economic weakness are emerging out of Asian tigers South Korea and Taiwan as the slowdown in key trading partner China takes a toll on the export-driven nations.

Toshiba Corp. reported Tuesday that it swung into a net loss in the fiscal first quarter as restructuring costs and the high yen outweighed growth in its energy-related infrastructure business.

UBS said it would start legal proceedings against exchange operator Nasdaq OMX Group after the Swiss bank's second quarter was hit by a big loss from the Facebook stock-market debut

Economic confidence in the 17-nation euro area fell to 87.9 from 89.9 in June… more than economists forecast to the lowest in almost three years in July, suggesting the economy’s slump extended into the third quarter as governments struggled to tame the debt crisis. The Euro fell to $1.22.

China’s volatility indexes are increasing according to Bloomberg which tracks US and other market volatility. That is a sign that the bull trap is beginning to close on all world stock markets and the bears know Obama-Bernanke are running a Ponzi scheme.

The glut in the shipping fleet has pushed new vessel prices to eight-year lows and caused a 49 percent plunge in first-half orders at China’s more than 1,500 shipbuilders. It’s also put smaller yards into bankruptcy and hit earnings at larger players.

Emerging markets faltered at recent high which is well blow the March level which is well below the high of 2012. All world markets will suffer now unless Obama is given the heave-ho. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering below the recent high which is well blow the March level which is well below the high of 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but well below the 2011 high.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.8% same as last months 0.8%

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new homes fell 8.4% last month from May’s 369k rate to a 350K rate in Jun

MBA Mortgage Index 07/21 was 0.9% down sharply from 16.9% last month. This means the Democrat liar loan crisis has not eased.

Crude Inventories 07/21 rose 2.717M even as prices plummet due to a world economic slowdown.

Yesterday
Initial Claims 07/21 355K down from 386K good

Continuing Claims 07/14 3304K up from 3300K bad

Durable Orders Jun 1.6% unchanged from 1.6%

Durable Orders - ex Transportation Jun -1.1% way down from 0.8% very bad

Pending Home Sales Jun -1.4% way down from 5.9% very bad

GDP-Adv. Q2 1.5% adjusted down from Obama’s original 2%+ estimate

Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 1.6% which is higher than the growth rate that says the recession continues.

Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul 72.3 up slightly from 72.0 last month.

Today
Jul 31 8:30 AM Personal Income Jun

Jul 31 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jun

Jul 31 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Jun

Jul 31 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q2

Jul 31 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index May

Jul 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jul

Jul 31 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jul

This Week

Aug 1 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/28

Aug 1 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jul

Aug 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jul

Aug 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jun

Aug 1 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/28

Aug 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jul

Aug 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jul

Aug 1 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jul

Aug 2 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jul

Aug 2 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/28

Aug 2 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/21

Aug 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders Jun

Aug 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jul

Aug 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls July

Aug 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jul

Aug 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jul

Aug 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jul

Aug 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jul



Market outlook July 31, 2012
People forget that the DJI is not the stock market signal. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together last August and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last “safe” place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. The DJI bull trap opened all the way on Friday. Yesterday’s wasn’t a breakout of even the March high much less the 2011 high. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the safety of the DJ Industrials.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Cash and precious metals are a better choice than being fully invested in stocks right now until it is abundantly evident Obama and Holder will be out of office. Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke are running a Federal Ponzi Scheme now to make Treasuries appear attractive so they can finance a $1.2Trillion per year debt which will bankrupt the USA if they are not thrown out in November. Corporations are cash rich now because they are hoarding cash because the collapse of the US treasuries will leave America without any cash. There is only credit, gold, and silver available in America because few people hold cash today. And in fact most corporations do not actually have any cash, they just have a cash balance in a bank account of a bank which will be bankrupt when this Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke Ponzi scheme collapses.

The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than is the DOW anything. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.  So the DOW sell signal remains in place.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that yesterday wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is now showing the bear market has started but the VIX indicates the market still has a long way to go until the VIX rises above 30 where bear markets normally end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is falling again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama around, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of gangster socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were up last night. China down -0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, Singapore up 0.1%, Japan up 0.7%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of +0.5% to -0.4%

American market futures are up about 0.3% in after-hour trading at 7 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.

The WSJ reported the economy is slowing to a crawl as consumers cut back spending on big-ticket items and businesses curtailed investments, fueling fears that the US could sink to stall-speed this year. I investors continued to pull money out of equity mutual funds in the first half of this year at a high pace relative to the two previous years. At the same time the equities market has become more illiquid and cannot support rapid in or out flows without massive volatility. The Investment Company Institute said $55 billion exited in the first six months this year, compared to $24.6 billion in the first six months of 2010, and $13.6 billion the first six months last year. We are warning that we have been in a bear market since August 2011.

Thursday the bull trap remained open all the way.

Amazon.com suffered a 96% plunge in second-quarter earnings amid acquisition charges and disappointing sales growth.

JPMorgan Chase, which is reeling from the fallout of a big trading loss at one of its divisions, announced a broad reshuffling of its top management on Friday.

Investors wiped $10 billion off the value of Facebook Inc on Friday.  Facebook continues to show no earnings growth and share prices were down over 30% now since the IPO. It will take a few years to completely dissipate the $100 Billion people threw into the Facebook pit. The joke is they the investors believe they have good management. The IPO was nothing but a Ponzi scheme where sales were restricted so that demand could only drive prices through the roof. Ponzi schemes all require that investors buy and sales of investors are restricted. Facebook was a Ponzi scheme where to get into the deal you had to agree not to sell until they told you that you could.

The FED is running a Ponzi scheme with American banks right now. In this case the FED guarantees a profit if the Banks take low interest loans from the FED and agree to use that borrowed money to buy FED debt given the. So the Banks get small guaranteed profit from the difference in what they pay the fed to borrow debt and what interest the FED pays them for using the borrowed money to buy American Treasury debt. Profit has no risk as long as public purchase of the debt continues at low interest rates (as long as the Ponzi scheme runs) and the FED has virtually unlimited borrowing at about 0% inflation adjusted interest rates. That allows theoretically infinite US FED debt until the world catches on that this is a Ponzi scheme as long as no one wants his or her money back. But as soon as investors realize US Treasuries are pumped up via a Ponzi scheme and want to get out of the Ponzi Scheme the scheme collapses and the cost of US Treasury debt will soar over 7% interest rate. The value of treasuries then plummet relative to precious metals or real estate, as the interest rates on US Treasuries soar as the value of the US Dollar and Treasuries heads towards zero. That is what awaits seniors and union pension funds that are primarily in fixed rate or controlled rate securities.

Apple still has about 30% to 50% to fall over the next year as they rapidly lose to competition now that Steve Jobs is gone. The employees all know it is happening and have been selling their stock as fast as they can for over a past year because they know it is overpriced at half the current price.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AAPL+Insider+Transactions

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney stuck in a 47% to 45%dead heat with Obama. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Economic confidence in the 17-nation euro area fell to 87.9 from 89.9 in June… more than economists forecast to the lowest in almost three years in July, suggesting the economy’s slump extended into the third quarter as governments struggled to tame the debt crisis.

European treasuries were little changed amid speculation the European Central Bank will purchase euro-region bonds to reduce their yields and stabilize the debt crisis with the same Ponzi scheme Obama –Bernanke-Geithner are using.

China’s volatility indexes are increasing according to Bloomberg who tracks US and other market volatility. That is a sign that the bull trap is beginning to close on all world stock markets and the bears know Obama-Bernanke are running a Ponzi scheme.

Gu Kailai, wife of ousted Politburo member Bo Xilai, was accused of “intentional homicide” by poisoning British citizen Neil Heywood in a case that’s shaken the Communist Party months before the recent leadership transition.

The glut in the shipping fleet has pushed new vessel prices to eight-year lows and caused a 49 percent plunge in first-half orders at China’s more than 1,500 shipbuilders. It’s also put smaller yards into bankruptcy and hit earnings at larger players.

Emerging markets faltered at recent high which is well blow the March level which is well below the high of 2012. All world markets will suffer now unless Obama is given the heave-ho. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering below the recent high which is well blow the March level which is well below the high of 2012: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but well below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
When the FED Ponzi scheme is recognized US interest rates will soar and pension funds and conservative investor cash holdings will drop in double digits. There could also be a run on the dollar that will wipe out cash that corporations are holding. If a socialist is in office he will enjoy the crisis and use it to expand socialization by nationalizing major sectors starting with the US Banks. We expect bank stocks will quickly become worthless. That is what socialists in Britain have done in the past. Years later conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thacher privatized British banks again but the people who lost everything got nothing back. America has never faced a socialist government before and Americans do not realize that socialists make their gains by creating and claiming they are managing the crisis when in reality they maintain the crisis and claim they had to because free enterprise has failed. But in America’s 230-year history free enterprise has never gone bankrupt. But just as Obama blames Bush for everything the socialists always blame capitalism for the revolution and destruction the socialists create. The USSR survived and oppressed their citizens for about 70 years. The most popular and successful leaders were Yeltsin and Gorbachev who ended the rule of the socialists and broke up the USSR.

FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.8% same as last months 0.8%

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new homes fell 8.4% last month from May’s 369k rate to a 350K rate in Jun

MBA Mortgage Index 07/21 was 0.9% down sharply from 16.9% last month.

Crude Inventories 07/21 rose 2.717M even as prices plummet due to a world economic slowdown.

Yesterday
Initial Claims 07/21 355K down from 386K good

Continuing Claims 07/14 3304K up from 3300K bad

Durable Orders Jun 1.6% unchanged from 1.6%

Durable Orders - ex Transportation Jun -1.1% way down from 0.8% very bad

Pending Home Sales Jun -1.4% way down from 5.9% very bad

GDP-Adv. Q2 1.5% adjusted down from Obama’s original 2%+ estimate

Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 1.6% which is higher than the growth rate that says the recession continues.

Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul 72.3 up slightly from 72.0 last month.

This Week Jul 31 8:30 AM Personal Income Jun

Jul 31 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jun

Jul 31 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Jun

Jul 31 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q2

Jul 31 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index May

Jul 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jul

Jul 31 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jul

Aug 1 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/28

Aug 1 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jul

Aug 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jul

Aug 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jun

Aug 1 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/28

Aug 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jul

Aug 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jul

Aug 1 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jul

Aug 2 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jul

Aug 2 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/28

Aug 2 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/21

Aug 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders Jun

Aug 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jul

Aug 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls July

Aug 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jul

Aug 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jul

Aug 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jul

Aug 3 10:00 AM ISM Services Jul


Market outlook July 30, 2012
The DJI is the last “safe” place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. The DJI bull trap opened all the way on Friday. Yesterday wasn’t a breakout of even the NYSE March high much less the 2011 high.

Cash and precious metals are a better choice than being fully invested in stocks right now until it is abundantly evident Obama and Holder will be out of office. Corporations are cash rich because they are hoarding cash.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.  So the DOW sell signal remains in place.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that yesterday wasn’t even a breakout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is now showing the bear market has started but the VIX indicates the market still has a long way to go until the VIX rises above 30 where bear markets normally end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is falling again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama around, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of gangster socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were up last night. China down -0.9%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, Japan up 0.8%.

European markets were up half way through their day in a range of +0% to 0.9%

American market futures are down about -0.2% in after-hour trading at 7 AM EST.

Yesterday the bull trap opened all the way. The U.S. is now third behind Australia and Canada in a ranking of countries with the highest percentage of citizens who feel that people who create wealth deserve their wealth. Only 58% of Americans surveyed in GlobeScan’s 2012 study of income inequality said they “agree” or “strongly agree” that rich people in the U.S. deserve their wealth they earned. That explains why the indigents are flocking to get their share as socialists take over the last three free-enterprise governments in the world.

Whoever Americans elect as president in November is almost certainly going to choose at least one and maybe more new members of the Supreme Court — in addition to hundreds of other life-tenured federal judges, all of whom will be making decisions about our lives for decades to come.


1. Justice Scalia just turned 78

2. Justice Kennedy will turn 78 later this year

3. Justice Breyer will be 76 in August

4. Justice Ginsburg is 81.

5. Justice Roberts just joined the socialists on Obamascare..

So for anybody who is thinking of not voting because your favorite didn’t get nominated, or writing in a candidate, just imagine this if Obama wins in November. Supreme Court Justice Eric Holder

Amazon.com suffered a 96% plunge in second-quarter earnings amid acquisition charges and disappointing sales growth.

Facebook continues to show no earnings growth and share prices were down over 30% now since the IPO. It will take a few years to completely dissipate the $100 Billion people threw into the Facebook pit. The joke is they the investors believe they have good management. The IPO was nothing but a Ponzi scheme where sales were restricted so that demand could only drive prices through the roof.

Apple has about 30% to 50% to fall over the next year as they rapidly lose to competition now that Steve Jobs is gone. The employees all know it is happening. Check for yourself and see that insiders at Apple have been selling their stock as fast as they can for over a year because they know it is overpriced at half the current price. They have not been holding Apple stock long. They buy the options at 0 or very little and sell the stock as soon as they possibly can. They were dumping everything already back under $350 in March last year just before the stock skyrocketed. They are still selling as fast as they can. Why would you buy a stock at a price that all the employees of Apple think is ridiculous? That is the power of MSNBC/Pravda and that is how they stay in business and keep their advertisers. The companies that MSNBC pumps up… finance socialism and are Obama’s big campaign contributors. The advertisers on MSNBC are supporting socialism and totalitarianism. Apple still has about 25% to fall. Check out the insiders soon because the socialists will eventually remove or fudge this information just as they no longer accurately report trading volume of stock markets since 2003 because it allowed us to accurately compute investor cash flows.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AAPL+Insider+Transactions

Starbucks missed earnings expectations in the second quarter and lowered its fourth-quarter estimate.

The Bull trap opened yesterday and the bulls are charging into it.

The socialists run Government Motors and the big banks now. Bank of America was a great free enterprise company until Obama hounded their last entrepreneur president out and installed a socialist friend of Obama. That is the reason the Big Banks are corrupt and stink.

Government Motors is run by socialists now for the unions who take their ridiculous pensions at age 50 while the shareholders who have taken haircuts. Obama wants to nationalize GM and a few of the biggest banks and make the takeovers complete.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney stuck in a dead heat with Obama. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Gu Kailai, wife of ousted Politburo member Bo Xilai, was accused of “intentional homicide” by poisoning British citizen Neil Heywood in a case that’s shaken the Communist Party months before the recent leadership transition.

The glut in the shipping fleet has pushed new vessel prices to eight-year lows and caused a 49 percent plunge in first-half orders at China’s more than 1,500 shipbuilders. It’s also put smaller yards into bankruptcy and hit earnings at larger players.

Chinese cities begin to take on enormous debt. Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, a failing regional government, will spend 829.2 billion yuan ($130 billion) on 195 projects, which include an airport and subway lines. It sounds like the other 193 projects involve government waste and corruption and can not be reported. Shen Jianguang, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist for Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said in a note today. “With the central government’s tight controls on local government lending previously, there has been widespread panic among local governments in regard to the recent downturn.”

Sands China Ltd., the Hong Kong listed Las Vegas company, fell to the lowest level in seven months after it reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit.

Thailand’s central bank signaled the economy is caught in a global slowdown as it lowered the country’s growth and inflation forecasts.

Telefonica SA fell the most in more than two years after suspending its dividends, cutting a revenue forecast and slashing compensation for top executives in its most drastic response to Spain’s debt crisis.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policymakers would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.

Beyond its banks, Spain now has to deal with failing regional governments. After the region of Valencia formally requested a bailout, rumors that several others, including Catalonia and Murcia, spooked investors as expectations that Madrid will have to shoulder an even larger debt load.

Emerging markets faltered. All world markets will suffer now unless Obama is given the heave-ho. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering below the recent high: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


American Economy
This Week

FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.8% same as last months 0.8%

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new homes fell 8.4% last month from May’s 369k rate to a 350K rate in Jun

MBA Mortgage Index 07/21 was 0.9% down sharply from 16.9% last month.

Crude Inventories 07/21 rose 2.717M even as prices plummet due to a world economic slowdown.

Yesterday

Initial Claims 07/21 355K down from 386K good

Continuing Claims 07/14 3304K up from 3300K bad

Durable Orders Jun 1.6% unchanged from 1.6%

Durable Orders - ex Transportation Jun -1.1% way down from 0.8% very bad

Pending Home Sales Jun -1.4% way down from 5.9% very bad

Today

Jul 27 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q2

Jul 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2

Jul 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul


Market outlook July 27, 2012
Yesterday the bull trap opened all the way. Yesterday wasn’t even a breakout yet as markets are only at their moving averages now. Cash and precious metals are a better choice than being fully invested in stocks right now until it is abundantly evident Obama and Holder will be out of office.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily take America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data. Notice that yesterday wasn’t even a breakout.http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX is now showing the bear market has started but the VIX indicates the market still has a long way to go until the VIX rises above 30 where bear markets normally end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is falling again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama around, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of gangster socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were up last night. China up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 2%, Singapore down –0.2%, Taiwan up 2.2%, Japan up 1.5%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of +0.7% to -0.6%

American market futures are up about 0.2% in after-hour trading at 7 AM EST.

Does Obama-Soros socialism have any social redeeming value? After spending $100 million on negative ads in the last three months, President Barack Obama, George Soros and their allies haven’t been able to gain any traction in the states most likely to determine the general election. Obama ran more than 136,000 negative spots in his seven weakest states during the past 90 days, going so far as to attack small business entrepreneurs and to say that government spending not business investment are the reason for wealth and jobs and that is why the government has a right to take the wealth of American workers and redistribute it even for free cell phones just for the indigents on public assistance.

You probably qualify for a free phone if you participate in Medicaid, Food Stamps/SNAP, General Assistance, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, Federal Public Housing Assistance, Home Energy Assistance Programs (HEAP, LIHEAP & E-HEAP), The National School Lunch Program’s Free Lunch Program, Supplemental Security Income (SSDI) or possibly some other public assistance programs. If you are not on a government assistance program that is Lifeline-approved for your state, you can still qualify if your household income is at our below 135-150% (may vary upon state) of the federal poverty level. You will get a free phone plus 250 minutes of free airtime each month with Obama’s  Assurance Wireless program at absolutely no cost. This is so children on welfare can have cell phones which they use in class when they should be trying to learn something.

http://www.govcellphones.com/
http://www.freegovernmentcellphones.net/free-cell-phone-providers/assurance-wireless

The economic recovery in the U.S. has stalled again this year as it did the previous two years. But this time corporate earnings, the driving force of the stock market, are also stalling. In fact corporate earnings are now in sharp decline, and corporate warnings are coming faster than seen since 2001. Add to this the year-end Obama mandated “fiscal cliff” in January would damage the GDP recovery by as much as –5%, Bernanke said. Obama demanded that budget cuts be put off until after the November 2012 election. Then Obama can blame his Obama Depression on Mitt Romney. But Obama’s deficit of $10 Trillion sets the world up for a bout of high inflation if not hyperinflation in half the European countries and much worse in the developing world. Precious metals will move upward again in value.

Check for yourself and see that insiders at Apple have been selling their stock as fast as they can for over a year because they know it is overpriced at half the current price. They have not been holding Apple stock long. They buy the options at 0 or very little and sell the stock as soon as they possibly can. They were dumping everything already back under $350 in March of 2011 just before the stock skyrocketed. They are still selling as fast as they can. Why would you buy a stock at a price that all the employees of Apple think is ridiculous? That is the power of MSNBC/Pravda and that is how they stay in business and keep their advertisers. All the companies that MSNBC pumps up… finance socialism and are Obama’s big campaign contributors. The advertisers on MSNBC are supporting socialism and totalitarianism. Check out the insiders soon because the socialists will eventually remove this information just as they no longer accurately report trading volume of stocks since 2003 because it allows us to accurately compute investor cash flows. The socialists run Government Motors the big banks now. That is the reason the Big Banks are corrupt and stink. Bank of America was a great free enterprise company until Obama hounded their last entrepreneur president out and installed a socialist friend of Obama.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AAPL+Insider+Transactions

Obama has raised capital gains taxes from 15% to 45% starting with reporting in April 2013. That will result in the selloff of stocks that have already gone down to take the losses to avoid a taxes tripling with Obama’s tax increase. In the past this kind of increase alone was enough to cause a bear market. If Obama is not ejected in November those rates go into effect.

Here is how creeping socialism makes the data lie. The seasonally adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
see also
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1748956928001/real-unemployment-numbers

It is time to sell Caterpillar shares of stock. CAT is gambling on strong demand for its construction and mining equipment in the USA despite knowledge that the global economy is going nowhere as long as it depends on $1Trillion of Obama deficit spending each year on trickle up job creation with food stamps, free cell phones, medicare free prescription marijuana, rent subsidies and yes, why shouldn’t poor people be allow to spend their welfare checks at casino’s and why should someone on welfare have to look for work? Obama’s constituent voters are getting bored with their plasma TVs and cable TV.

Ford Motor Co. second-quarter earnings fell by more than 50% because of losses in Europe and other regions of the world.

Texas Instruments saw second-quarter profit fall 34% to $446 million, or 38 cents a share, down from last year’s profit $672 million, or 45 cents a share, as revenue slipped to $3.34 billion, down from year-ago sales of $3.46 billion.

Obama has the home building industry down -66% from the normal level before he took office. It was worse for a while when it was down –78% under Obama. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney stuck in a dead heat with Obama. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


World market this week
Chinese cities begin to take on enormous debt. Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, a failing regional government, will spend 829.2 billion yuan ($130 billion) on 195 projects, which include an airport and subway lines. It sounds like the other 193 projects involve government waste and corruption and can not be reported. Shen Jianguang, Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist for Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said in a note today. “With the central government’s tight controls on local government lending previously, there has been widespread panic among local governments in regard to the recent downturn.”

Sands China Ltd., the Hong Kong listed Las Vegas company, fell to the lowest level in seven months after it reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit.

Thailand’s central bank signaled the economy is caught in a global slowdown as it lowered the country’s growth and inflation forecasts.

Telefonica SA fell the most in more than two years after suspending its dividends, cutting a revenue forecast and slashing compensation for top executives in its most drastic response to Spain’s debt crisis.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policymakers would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.

Beyond its banks, Spain now has to deal with failing regional governments. After the region of Valencia formally requested a bailout, rumors that several others, including Catalonia and Murcia, spooked investors as expectations that Madrid will have to shoulder an even larger debt load.

South Korea-based Posco, Asia’s third-biggest steel producer by output, said second-quarter profit declined 44 percent as demand waned from carmakers and shipbuilders.

When currencies collapse then commodities and gold and silver set new highs. We are seeing signs of that beginning now. It is exacerbated by international instability when empires collapse and massive uncontrollable migrations of people occur to escape increasing hardships.

Emerging markets faltered. All world markets will suffer now unless Obama is given the heave-ho. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering below the recent high: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
This Week
FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.8% same as last months 0.8%

Yesterday
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new homes fell 8.4% last month from May’s 369k rate to a 350K rate in Jun

MBA Mortgage Index 07/21 was 0.9% down sharply from 16.9% last month.

Crude Inventories 07/21 rose 2.717M even as prices plummet due to a world economic slowdown.

Today

Jul 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/21

Jul 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/21

Jul 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jun

Jul 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders - ex Transportation Jun

Jul 26 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jun

This Week

Jul 27 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q2

Jul 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2

Jul 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul



Market outlook July 26, 2012
Our anticipated world market drop similar to the one we saw starting in August of last year has begun. Cash and precious metals are a better choice than being fully invested in stocks right now until it is abundantly evident Obama and Holder will be out of office.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily take America into a profoundly deep depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is now extremely complacent and extremely dangerous. Low volatility means it takes very little to move the market down because no one is buying stocks. The VIX indicates the market has a long way to fall until the VIX rises above 30 where bear markets normally end.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is turning lower again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama around, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of gangster socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were mixed last night. China down -0.5%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, Taiwan down –0.1%%, Japan up 0.9%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of +0.6% to -0.9%

American market futures are down about –0.5% in after-hour trading at 6:30 AM EST.

While cash, not stocks, is a better choice, silver and gold will be seen as safe havens and rise typically 10% to 30% within weeks once currencies fall. When China finally realizes they bought into an Obama-Bernanke Ponzi scheme, they and other foreign debt holders will likely panic. It is most likely happening already. The collapse could trap recent buyers with 10% to 20% losses. Then a month or two later it will become a decent entry point as Americans go to the polls and remove Obama from office. If Obama wins re-election we expect a complete collapse of both the stock market and the US Dollar. That makes silver and gold even more attractive. Free cell phones and free minutes is a right for all of Obama's followers via their children. See: http://www.govcellphones.com/

The Obama administration Ponzi schemes and Chicago corrupt socialist fascist crony capitalism is now in collapse and China’s holders of American debt have discover that Obama IOU’s, not the American taxpayer backs the QE dollars. Americans may disavow Obama’s administration debt if it turns out he has been involved in a scam to redistribute wealth.

While cash, not stocks, is a better choice at the moment, silver and gold will be the safe havens and rise typically 10% to 30% within weeks once currencies fall. When China finally realizes they bought into an Obama-Bernanke Ponzi scheme, they and other foreign debt holders will eventually act. The drop could trap recent buyers with 10% to 20% losses. Then a month or two later it will become a decent entry point if Americans go to the polls and remove Obama from office. If Obama wins re-election we expect a deeper drop of both the stock market and the US Dollar. That makes silver and gold even more attractive.

Obama-Holder-Bernanke Treasuries climbed, with five-, 10- and 30-year yields sliding to records, as concern mounted that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening and before reports this week forecast to show U.S. growth cooled. The people fleeing to treasuries will lose their shirts too when the first Obama-Holder-Bernanke default and haircut occurs. Gold and silver are now at a relative low point.

Obama told the world last week just how stupid he is. He says America was a land of opportunity because it inherited an infrastructure and natural resources. He told Americans that they would have nothing if it were not handed to him like Americans handed Obama a free education at Harvard. Obama got into Harvard as a Nigerian citizen not an American and that is why his Harvard records are sealed.

But the truth is that America has wealth because Americans have a work ethic and brains. Nigerians have poverty, murder and persecution of Christians and Jews every month. Nigeria sits on oil but is so corrupt they distrust and kill their students who return to Nigeria to try to help reform their socialism. That is why Obama decided to claim he is an American and he hates Western European Christians who have the brains and initiative to build an economy with free enterprise, tolerance, justice, and liberty. Obama’s head is filled with 100% Nigerian Moslem socialist rubbish. Americans have tolerated Obama long enough.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated during his second day of testimony that the U.S. fiscal spending situation under Obama is “unsustainable.” It is a Ponzi scheme. Bernanke has lowered rates so that Obama’s debt is charged a lower rate and hence Obama has been able to load up with debt because Bernanke keeps the debt cost artificially low. The FED also pumps up bank earnings and bank purchases of Obama debt by offering Obama debt at an interest rate above the artificially low rate the banks pay to borrow from the FED. This is and has been the outright obvious fraudulent and deceptive Obama/Bernanke FED Ponzi scheme run under the name “quantitative easing.”

ObamaScare, no-work-welfare, housing assistance, and food stamps will have USA taxpayers $15 Trillion in debt if Obama is re-elected. Of course Obama doesn’t believe in term limits and thinks the president should serve as long as he gets re-elected by his deadbeat socialist constituency.

Obama has the home building industry down only -66% from the normal level before he took office. It was worse for a while when it was down –78% under Obama. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans.

“Eric Holder Sues Mortgage Bankers for refusing to continue to give Obama liar loans. Obama and Eric Holder filed a complaint against a mortgage banker alleging violations of the Fair Housing Act and Equal Credit Opportunity Act. The complaint alleges that defendant engaged in a pattern and practice of discrimination against deadbeats who could not or would not show they could make mortgage payments and therefore might be lying. Eric Holder claims they were not lying and should have been taken at their word instead of being embarrassed by having to prove they could make the payments just because whitey is required. Under Obama and Holder it is illegal for banks to ask people of “low self esteem” to show they are not a lying scam artist or deadbeats. Those is questions banks can only legally ask greedy white folks.
http://www.goodwinprocter.com/Publications/Newsletter-Articles/Consumer-Financial-Articles/2012_04/17_15.aspx

The year-end Obama mandated “fiscal cliff” would damage the GDP recovery by as much as –5%, Bernanke said. Obama demanded that budget cuts be put off until after the November 2012 election as punishment for the vast majority of Americans who will vote Obama out of office. Then Obama can blame his Obama Depression on Mitt Romney.

This week we predict Apple computer will begin a long decline of 50% to 80% in stock value. This happened every time Steve Jobs left the company. Maybe they will hire Obama to help them redistribute the $80billion (68cents/share) they are sitting on.  One of benefits of Obama is all the free things he has for his people.  Free cell phones and free minutes is a right for all of Obama's followers via their children.  See: http://www.govcellphones.com/


Gold and silver will make a rapid comeback now as the world realizes that leftist socialists like Obama and Holder live a lie and socialism is not compassion it is Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Mr. Kim, and Castro etc.
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/northkorea/index.html

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney stuck at 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 45%. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
When currencies collapse then commodities and gold and silver set new highs. We are seeing signs of that beginning now. It is exacerbated by international instability when empires collapse and massive uncontrollable migrations of people occur to escape increasing hardships.

Catalonia Spain joined a list of the country’s regions that may tap aid from the central government in Madrid, spurring Spanish 10-year yields to surge above 7.5 percent for the first time and joins Athens in anticipated fiscal collapse.

Oil and energy dropped to the lowest level in four days in New York, with oil dropping below $90 a barrel amid renewed concern that Europe is failing and the EU will dissolve once again into fascist socialist aggressive states. Futures tumbled as much as 3.7 percent as the euro dropped to an 11-year low and the cost of insuring Spanish debt surged to a new record. International creditors meet in Athens tomorrow as concern grows that Greece will once again not meet its bailout targets and require another extension. Crude also fell after a Chinese central bank adviser said the nation’s economy will cool further, putting at risk consumption in the world’s second-biggest energy consumer. Dubai Shares Dropped 2.4% as oil loses to gold.

Emerging markets faltered. All world markets will suffer now unless Obama is given the heave-ho. If Obama wins in November he will destroy American democracy as well as free enterprise.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering below the recent high: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Markets are testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined



American Economy
Squawk Box said many hedge funds are rife with Ponzi schemes again that will go bankrupt soon.

Past Week
US Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June falling for a third month in a row as small companies refuse to hire until they are certain the Obama Scare will not go into effect. The limited employment gains took a toll on consumers.

20% of the unemployed are not counted (the blue line) because they have given up on socialism and have joined John Gault in retirement.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

Retail Sales ex-auto Jun were down again by -0.4%

Empire Manufacturing Jul 7.improved slightly to 7.4

Business Inventories rose again in May this time by 0.3%. Inventory build-up means production must be cut.

CPI Jun 0.0% up from -0.3% ok

Core CPI Jun 0.2% was.2% ok

Net Long-Term TIC Flows May $55.0 bln up from $25.6B the world is still buying our runaway debt

Industrial Production Jun 0.4% up from -0.1% good

Capacity Utilization Jun 78.9% declined from 79.0% bad

NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 35 was 29 This is complete fabrication

MBA Mortgage Index 07/14 +16.9up from -2.1% Good indication of some clearing of inventory.

Housing Starts Jun 760K up from 711K Improved from –78% to only -67% since Obama liar loans went into effect. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans.

Building Permits Jun 755K down from 784K not good for jobs but good since there are too many homes

Crude Inventories 07/14 -0.809M down from -4.696M, not good

Initial Claims 07/14 386K up sharply from 350K Bad

Continuing Claims 07/07 3314K up from 3304K Bad

Existing Home Sales Jun 4.37M down from 4.55M Bad

We want home sales. What is not helpful is building new homes when we currently have over 1% of homes occupied by Obama-Holder liar loan deadbeats who cannot afford them and almost 1% vacant.

Philadelphia Fed Jul -12.9 bad again -16.6 Bad

Leading Indicators Jun -0.3% sharp downturn from 0.3% Bad

This Week

Jul 24 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index May

Jul 25 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/21

Jul 25 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jun

Jul 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/21

Jul 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/21

Jul 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/21

Jul 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jun

Jul 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders - ex Transportation Jun

Jul 26 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jun

Jul 27 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q2

Jul 27 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2

Jul 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul

Market outlook July 23, 2012
Our anticipated world market collapse similar to the one we saw starting in August of last year has begun. Cash and precious metals are better than being fully invested in stocks right now until it is abundantly evident Obama and Holder will be out of office. But if Obama is re-elected currencies (including the dollar) will begin to collapse and inflation will rise rapidly. With a poorly educated Nigerian running America it will be America’s worst period in history. At some point China will panic and dump falling currencies. In summary, if Obama wins we expect a complete collapse of the stock market, the world economy and the US Dollar because nothing is too stupid for this administration to try. It could get much worse than in September of 2008 when Obama was first elected after he announced America was in a Great Obama pronounced Depression.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily take America into a profoundly deep depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is now extremely complacent and extremely dangerous. Low volatility means it takes very little to move the market down because no one is buying stocks.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is turning lower again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama around, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of gangster socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart


Stock market update:
Asian markets were down sharply last night. China down –1.3%, Hong Kong down -3%, India down –1.6%, Singapore down –1.1%, Taiwan down –1.9%, S Korea down –1.8%Japan down -1.9%.

European markets were down sharply half way through their day in a range of –1%Swiss to –4.8% Austria

American market futures are down about –1.2% in after-hour trading at 6:30 AM EST.

The Obama administration Ponzi schemes are ready to collapse any time China’s holders of American debt discover that Obama IOU’s, not the American taxpayer backs the dollar. While cash, not stocks, is a better choice at the moment, silver and gold will be seen as safe havens once currencies begin to collapse. When China finally realizes they bought into an Obama-Bernanke Ponzi scheme, they and other foreign debt holders will likely panic. It is most likely the next few days will see a stock market trap close. The trap may be executed by computer to first wipe out short sellers with an upward spike that draws in more buyers (that could have happened in the last few days). The collapse could then trap the buyers with 10% to 20% losses. Then a month or two later it will become a decent entry point as Americans go to the polls and remove Obama from office. If Obama wins re-election we expect a complete collapse of both the stock market and the US Dollar. That makes silver and gold more attractive.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated during his second day of testimony that the U.S. fiscal spending situation under Obama is “unsustainable.” It is a Ponzi scheme. Bernanke has lowered rates so that Obama’s debt is charged a lower rate and hence Obama has been able to load up with debt because Bernanke keeps the debt cost artificially low. The FED also pumps up bank earnings and bank purchases of Obama debt by offering Obama debt at an interest rate above the artificially low rate the banks pay to borrow from the FED. Then the FED allows the banks to turn around and borrow from the American taxpayer to buy the Obama debt that pays a slightly higher interest rate from the FED. This is and has been the outright obvious fraudulent and deceptive Obama/Bernanke FED Ponzi scheme run under the name “quantitative easing.” This Obama Ponzi scheme will also undermine the EU scheme as confidence in Socialist community activist deadbeats hits a new low. ObamaScare, no-work-welfare, housing assistance, and food stamps will have USA taxpayers $15 Trillion in debt if Obama is re-elected. Of course Obama doesn’t believe in term limits and thinks the president should serve as long as he gets re-elected by his deadbeat socialist constituency. That is what he told Venezuela’s Chavez who is one of Obama’s heroes. Of course Obama hates Churchill and sent his bust back to England.


Obama has the home building industry down only -66% from the normal level before he took office. It was worse for a while when it was down –78% under Obama. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans.

Even after the socialists in Congress on the Senate Banking Commission destroyed the American banking system 2004-2008 by requiring “Liar Loans” so that deadbeats can get equal opportunity to “good credit” home mortgages.… the Democrat-socialists add insult to injury and continue with Obama-Holder liar-loan fraud. The only way to give deadbeats a lower interest rate is to take the deadbeat at her word that she has sufficient income to make the mortgage payments. The “shame of socialism” is that very few male deadbeats have access to anything. Men living on the streets outnumber women by more than twenty to one. The Democrat-socialists make the system so biased against males that minority families have few stable father figures. The father figure has to disappear for the mother to get Obama-Holder welfare. Obama-Holder Socialism discriminates against father figures and allows deadbeats to get liar loans and sues banks who do not accept the lies required so that deadbeats can be qualified for lower interest rates.

“The Department of Justice Sues Mortgage Bankers for Violations of Fair Housing Act and Equal Credit Opportunity Act.

The Department of Justice filed a complaint against a mortgage banker alleging violations of the Fair Housing Act and Equal Credit Opportunity Act. The complaint alleges that defendant engaged in a pattern and practice of race and national origin discrimination by charging African American and Hispanic borrowers higher interest rates and fees on home mortgage loans compared to the rates and fees the defendant charged to similarly-situated non-Hispanic white borrowers. The Department of Justice alleged that in hundreds of instances African American and or Hispanic borrowers with similar credit and risk profiles as white borrowers, entering in the same type of home mortgage loan, paid higher interest rates and fees. Click here for the complaint.”
http://www.goodwinprocter.com/Publications/Newsletter-Articles/Consumer-Financial-Articles/2012_04/17_15.aspx

The position of this blog is that we first have to throw out Obama and then we need to let inflation rise to between 4% to 5% not the current 2.5% to put pressure on all governments to lower debts because interest rates always are charged higher than inflation. The 5%+ inflation rate would then help reduce world debt and would force corporations and people to stop hoarding cash, a practice that currently hurts investment… so that the returns are greater than the inflation rate. Today the  low interest rates allow incompetent governments and incompetent bank executives to have lower debt payments and grossly inflates financial sector profits because they pay close to 0% for the money they borrow from the fed. So they have a no-brain gain by borrowing tons at 0.25% interest from the fed to buy US government debt paying 2% interest. That is the game they have been playing for three years now. We have a disaster facing us now when this debt comes due.

The year-end Obama mandated “fiscal cliff” would damage the GDP recovery by as much as –5%, Bernanke said. Obama demanded that budget cuts be put off until after the November 2012 election as punishment for the vast majority of Americans who will vote Obama out of office. Then Obama can blame his Obama Depression on Mitt Romney.

The Aerospace Industries Association, presented a study predicting the across-the-board Obama Military cuts in federal programs may cost 2.14 million private industry jobs and reduce the gross domestic product by $215 billion next year. Former Vice President Dick Cheney said at a private meeting with Senate Republicans yesterday that the projected cuts totaling $500 billion could be “devastating” to military modernization and planning. The problem arose when Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was snookered and came up with an additional $400 Billion cuts for Obama after a similar size cut was already set to go into effect in January 2013.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc's quarterly profit fell 12 percent as investment income plunged.

State Street Corp.'s second-quarter earnings fell 4.5% on lower foreign exchange trading revenue and lower fees from investment management and servicing.

Alcatel-Lucent warned on Tuesday that it expects to post a second-quarter operating loss and miss a key performance goal as demand continues to slump in Europe.

There are reports that Microsoft may be illegally corrupting and thereby shutting down decade old software which owners are legally allowed to continue to use as they upgrade their computers. The problem may involve illegal access and disruption of user work. If Microsoft is involved then they will become liable for $billions in damages. Users who trust Microsoft and use their fault reporting may be most vulnerable.

Citigroup Inc said on Monday that quarterly earnings fell 12 percent as it was stung by losses from the liar-loan credit crisis-era assets, but the bank's results were better than many analysts expected after low-balling to try to give Obama a boos in the polls.

Facebook stock fell 8.1 percent to $28.25 at 4 p.m. in New York. It is down 26 percent since May when the California company sold shares in an initial public offering.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney stuck at 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 46%. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
When currencies collapse then commodities and gold and silver set new highs. We are seeing signs of that beginning now. It is exacerbated by international instability when empires collapse and massive uncontrollable migrations of people occur to escape increasing hardships.

Britain had a bigger budget deficit than economists forecast in June, casting fresh doubt on whether Britain can meet his full- year fiscal goals.

Nokia Oyj’s debt, already at junk status was lowered further by two steps at Fitch Ratings after the Finnish mobile- phone maker’s second-quarter loss widened.

North Korea said it is reviewing the “nuclear issue” to counter the U.S., days after Kim Jong Un consolidated his power by taking the nation’s top military rank and removing the army chief.

Sales of offshore wind turbines collapsed 75% in the first half of 2012, a sign the power industry and its financiers are struggling in Germany and Britain. U.K. inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, its lowest rate in 2 1/2 years

The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further if socialists in Europe do not act with enough force and speed to end their welfare states and go back to the free enterprise system.

London home sellers cut prices by a record 3.6 percent for the month of July from June as an increase in supply added to pressure on the property market during the traditional summer lull.

Peugeot Citroen plunged to a new 23-year low over concerns that socialist Holland will interfere after they announced plans to close a factory and cut some jobs to save the company.

Emerging markets faltered. News falsely reported Monday that they just had a six-week run-up and you can see they went down again in that time period. However, they will still do better than American stocks unless Obama is given the heave-ho.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering below the recent high but 20% higher than last year’s low: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Markets are testing highs. It gave a sell signal last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined



American Economy

Four American cities went bankrupt this month.

Squawk Box said hedge funds are rife with Ponzi schemes again that will go bankrupt soon.

J.P. Morgan 2Q Profit fell and reported earnings that were down 9% from a year ago, as it struggles to bounce back from a $6 Billion loss on a bad hedging bet.

Crude Oil Futures Drop From One-Week High



Past Week

US Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June falling for a third month in a row as small companies refuse to hire until they are certain the Obama Scare will not go into effect. The limited employment gains took a toll on consumers.

20% of the unemployed are not counted (the blue line) because they have given up on socialism and have joined John Gault in retirement.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

Retail Sales ex-auto Jun were down again by -0.4%

Empire Manufacturing Jul 7.improved slightly to 7.4

Business Inventories rose again in May this time by 0.3%. Inventory build-up means production must be cut.

CPI Jun 0.0% up from -0.3% ok

Core CPI Jun 0.2% was.2% ok

Net Long-Term TIC Flows May $55.0 bln up from $25.6B the world is still buying our runaway debt

Industrial Production Jun 0.4% up from -0.1% good

Capacity Utilization Jun 78.9% declined from 79.0% bad

NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 35 was 29 This is complete fabrication

MBA Mortgage Index 07/14 +16.9up from -2.1% Good indication of some clearing of inventory.

Housing Starts Jun 760K up from 711K Improved from –78% to only -67% since Obama liar loans went into effect. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans.

Building Permits Jun 755K down from 784K not good for jobs but good since there are too many homes

Crude Inventories 07/14 -0.809M down from -4.696M, not good

Yesterday
Initial Claims 07/14 386K up sharply from 350K Bad

Continuing Claims 07/07 3314K up from 3304K Bad

Existing Home Sales Jun 4.37M down from 4.55M Bad
We want home sales. What is not helpful is building new homes when we currently have over 1% of homes occupied by Obama-Holder liar loan deadbeats who cannot afford them and almost 1% vacant.

Philadelphia Fed Jul -12.9 bad again -16.6 Bad
Leading Indicators Jun -0.3% sharp downturn from 0.3% Bad

Market outlook July 20, 2012
Microsoft’s ill-fated acquisition of an online advertising business led to its first ever loss this last quarter, its first in more than two decades as a public company. We anticipate a market collapse within days similar to the one we saw starting in August of last year. Cash is better than being fully invested in stocks right now until Obama is out of office. But if Obama is re-elected currencies will begin to collapse and people will stop accumulating them. At some point China will panic and dump falling currencies. In summary, if Obama wins we expect a complete collapse of both the stock market and the US Dollar.

The market is hitting upper resistance levels again. The stock market rally since 2009 was based on assumed economic recovery. We produced a stock market recovery that is entirely hollow and no economic recovery. The recovery is based on artificially low FED rates that are dangerous enablers of socialism and socialist debt and also the enablers of financial institutions borrowing excessively from the FED at low rates to make artificially high profits while squandering the future livelihoods of our children.

As of the end of the 3rd quarter 2011, Wall’s Street estimated for 2nd quarter 2012 S&P 500 earnings would increase of 14.3% and that was the basis for the market rally. The estimates have now plunged to consensus expectations of a rise of only 5.8% less than half the number used to justify this current market level.

We now expect the stock market will soon slump for at least two months or more. The market will likely continue to slump further if Obama is re-elected. It is too close to call just how bad it will be. It could get worse than in September of 2008 when Obama was first elected after he announced America was in a Great Depression.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily be taking America into a profoundly deep depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is now extremely complacent and extremely dangerous.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is turning lower again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama malaise, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were down last night. China down -0.8%, Hong Kong up 0.4%, India down -0.7%, Singapore down –0.4%, Japan down -1.4%.

European markets were down half way through their day in a range of -0.3% to -1%

American market futures are down about -0.3% in after

Obama administration Ponzi schemes are ready to collapse now. Cash is the best place now with a market collapse now close at hand. It is most likely the next five days will see the trap close. The trap may be executed by computer to first wipe out short sellers with an upward spike that draws in more buyers. The collapse could then trap the buyers with 10% to 20% losses. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reiterated during his second day of testimony that the U.S. fiscal spending situation under Obama is “unsustainable.” It is a Ponzi scheme. Bernanke has lowered rates so that Obama’s debt is charged a lower rate and hence Obama has been able to load up with debt because Bernanke keeps the debt cost artificially low. The FED also pumps up bank earnings and bank purchases of Obama debt by offering Obama debt at an interest rate above the artificially low rate the banks pay to borrow from the FED. Then the FED allows the banks to turn around and buy the Obama debt that pays a slightly higher interest rate from the FED. This is and has been the outright obvious fraudulent and deceptive Obama/Bernanke FED Ponzi scheme run under the name “quantitative easing.” This Obama Ponzi scheme will also undermine the EU scheme as confidence in Socialist community activist deadbeats hits a new low.

Obama has the home building industry down only -66% from the high level before he took office. It was as bad as down –78% under Obama. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans. The position of this blog is that we first have to throw out Obama and then we need to let inflation rise to between 4% to 5% not the current 2.5% to put pressure on all governments to lower debts because interest rates always are higher than inflation. The5% inflation rate would then help reduce world debt and would force corporations and people to stop hoarding cash, a practice that currently hurts investment so that the returns are greater than the inflation rate.


The low interest rates allows incompetent governments and incompetent bank executives have lower debt payments and grossly inflate financial sector profits because they pay close to 0% for the money they borrow from the fed. So they have a no-brain gain by borrowing tons at 0.25% interest from the fed to buy US government debt paying 2% interest. That is the game they have been playing for three years now. We have a disaster facing us now when this debt comes due.

The year-end Obama mandated “fiscal cliff” would damage the GDP recovery by as much as –5%, Bernanke said. Obama demanded that budget cuts be put off until after the November 2012 election as punishment for the vast majority of Americans who will vote Obama out of office. Then Obama can blame his Obama Depression on Mitt Romney.

The Aerospace Industries Association, presented a study predicting the across-the-board Obama Military cuts in federal programs may cost 2.14 million private industry jobs and reduce the gross domestic product by $215 billion next year. Former Vice President Dick Cheney said at a private meeting with Senate Republicans yesterday that the projected cuts totaling $500 billion could be “devastating” to military modernization and planning. The problem arose when Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was snookered and came up with an additional $400 Billion cuts for Obama after a similar size cut was already set to go into effect in January 2013.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc's quarterly profit fell 12 percent as investment income plunged.

State Street Corp.'s second-quarter earnings fell 4.5% on lower foreign exchange trading revenue and lower fees from investment management and servicing.

Alcatel-Lucent warned on Tuesday that it expects to post a second-quarter operating loss and miss a key performance goal as demand continues to slump in Europe.

There are reports that Microsoft may be illegally corrupting and thereby shutting down decade old software which owners are legally allowed to continue to use as they upgrade their computers. The problem may involve illegal access and disruption of user work. If Microsoft is involved then they will become liable for $billions in damages. Users who trust Microsoft and use their fault reporting may be most vulnerable.

Citigroup Inc said on Monday that quarterly earnings fell 12 percent as it was stung by losses from the liar-loan credit crisis-era assets, but the bank's results were better than many analysts expected after low-balling to try to give Obama a boos in the polls.

Facebook stock fell 8.1 percent to $28.25 at 4 p.m. in New York. It is down 26 percent since May when the California company sold shares in an initial public offering.

On Friday July 13 and the trap was set for investors. The hook was bated. Each day the lure was lowered and then it went back up and many investors would miss the daily worm. Then Friday the July 13 they knew they figured it out. Investors decide to buy when it by 10:45 Am and prices are low and sell by 3:45 and they make 0.8% in just one day. They are hooked. Some days later they do the same thing but their particular stock goes down 25% and the people who sold the stock short it and it loses 80% before they get out. That is now happening with many stocks like Cummins that Jim Crammer got hooked on himself.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney stuck at 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. 52% of investors say the economy is getting worse. At the beginning of the year only 37% thought it was getting worse.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Poisoned dog food, human and animal feces in vegetables, hazardous gypsum board, shoddy workmanship, and manufacturing errors make American and German made products a better value than Chinese and Mexican products. Emerging-market stocks declined from a one-week high after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned of a “severe” jobs outlook and amid concern corporate earnings “have gone over the cliff.”

Shoddy merchandise from the BRICS results in products that are failing across the free world and that has collapsed demand for products from the emerging world. The products are cheap but worthless. It is seen in full force this summer as heat waves traverse the Northern Hemisphere where imported air conditioning units are failing. Americans made units that had lasted 20 years have now been replaced by Mexican and Chinese products that are failing in 2 to 5 years. Shoddy imports are causing Westerners to boycott the products. $Billions of gypsum board manufactured with solidified Chinese toxic waste are eating away the wiring and plumbing in new houses and are about to be declared heath hazards. Shoddy products are the cause of the decline in trade with BRICS. The financial health of the BRICS has been grossly exaggerated.

Sales of offshore wind turbines collapsed 75% in the first half of 2012, a sign the power industry and its financiers are struggling in Germany and Britain. U.K. inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, its lowest rate in 2 1/2 years

The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further if socialists in Europe do not act with enough force and speed to end their welfare states and go back to the free enterprise system.

London home sellers cut prices by a record 3.6 percent for the month of July from June as an increase in supply added to pressure on the property market during the traditional summer lull.

Chancellor Angela Merkel gave no ground on Germany’s demands for more central bank control over euro member states in return for joint burden-sharing as the region struggles to contain the debt crisis. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will issue its ruling on Sept. 12 the bids to halt Germany’s participation in the European Stability and the fiscal treaty. That’s a delay of more than two months.

Emerging markets faltered. News falsely reported Monday that they just had a six-week run-up and you can see they went down again in that time period. However, they will still do better than American stocks unless Obama is given the heave-ho.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering and 7% below the recent high but 20% higher than last year’s low: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Markets are now faltering too but are better than the DOW industrials. All gave a sell signal last year. Remember a Dow signal requires a Rails confirmation. Last year the Dow set a new high but the Rails did not confirm so it is still a sell signal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
Three more American cities went bankrupt last week.

Squawk Box said hedge funds are rife with Ponzi schemes again that will go bankrupt soon.

J.P. Morgan 2Q Profit fell and reported earnings that were down 9% from a year ago, as it struggles to bounce back from a $6 Billion loss on a bad hedging bet.
US Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June falling for a third month in a row as small companies refuse to hire until they are certain the Obama Scare will not go into effect. The limited employment gains took a toll on consumers.

20% of the unemployed are not counted (the blue line) because they have given up on socialism and have joined John Gault in retirement.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

Retail Sales ex-auto Jun were down again by -0.4%

Empire Manufacturing Jul 7.improved slightly to 7.4

Business Inventories rose again in May this time by 0.3%. Inventory build-up means production must be cut.

CPI Jun 0.0% up from -0.3% ok

Core CPI Jun 0.2% was.2% ok

Net Long-Term TIC Flows May $55.0 bln up from $25.6B the world is still buying our runaway debt

Industrial Production Jun 0.4% up from -0.1% good

Capacity Utilization Jun 78.9% declined from 79.0% bad

NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 35 was 29 This is complete fabrication

Yesterday

MBA Mortgage Index 07/14 +16.9up from -2.1% Good indication of some clearing of inventory.

Housing Starts Jun 760K up from 711K Improved from –78% to only -67% since Obama liar loans went into effect. Obama has continued the liar loans and is still suing banks that do not give liar loans.

Building Permits Jun 755K down from 784K not good

Crude Inventories 07/14 -0.809M down from -4.696M, not good

Today
Jul 19 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/14

Jul 19 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/07

Jul 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun

Jul 19 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jul

Jul 19 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jun

This Week
Market outlook July 19, 2012
We anticipate a market collapse within days similar to the one we saw in August of last year

The market is hitting upper resistance levels again. The stock market rally since 2009 was based on assumed economic recovery. We produced a stock market recovery that is entirely hollow and no economic recovery. The recovery is based on artificially low FED rates that are dangerous enablers of socialism and socialist debt and also the enablers of financial institutions borrowing excessively from the FED at low rates to make artificially high profits while squandering the future livelihoods of our children.

As of the end of the 3rd quarter 2011, Wall’s Street estimated for 2nd quarter 2012 S&P 500 earnings would increase of 14.3% and that was the basis for the market rally. The estimates have now plunged to consensus expectations of a rise of only 5.8% less than half the number used to justify this current market level.

We now expect the stock market will soon slump for at least two months or more. The market will likely continue to slump further if Obama is re-elected. It is too close to call just how bad it will be. It could get worse than in September of 2008 when Obama was first elected after he announced America was in a Great Depression.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily be taking America into a profoundly deep depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is still complacent and extremely dangerous.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is turning lower again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama malaise, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were up last night. China up 0.7%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, India up 0.6%, Taiwan up 1.4%, Japan up 0.8%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of +0.3% to +1%

American market futures are up about 0.4% in after-hour trading at 7:30 AM EST.

The market is hitting upper resistance levels again. The stock market rally since 2009 was based on assumed economic recovery. We produced a stock market recovery that is entirely hollow and no economic recovery.

The Aerospace Industries Association, presented a study predicting the across-the-board Obama Military cuts in federal programs could cost 2.14 million private industry jobs and reduce the gross domestic product by $215 billion next year. Former Vice President Dick Cheney said at a private meeting with Senate Republicans yesterday that the projected cuts totaling $500 billion could be “devastating” to military modernization and planning. The problem arose when Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was snookered and came up with an additional $400 Billion cuts for Obama after a similar size cut was already set to go into effect in January 2013.


Goldman Sachs Group Inc's quarterly profit fell 12 percent as investment income plunged.

State Street Corp.'s second-quarter earnings fell 4.5% on lower foreign exchange trading revenue and lower fees from investment management and servicing.

Alcatel-Lucent warned on Tuesday that it expects to post a second-quarter operating loss and miss a key performance goal as demand continues to slump in Europe.

There are reports that Microsoft may be illegally corrupting and thereby shutting down decade old software which owners are legally allowed to continue to use as they upgrade their computers. The problem may involve illegal access and disruption of user work. If Microsoft is involved then they will become liable for $billions in damages. Users who trust Microsoft and use their fault reporting may be most vulnerable.

Citigroup Inc said on Monday that quarterly earnings fell 12 percent as it was stung by losses from the liar-loan credit crisis-era assets, but the bank's results were better than many analysts expected after low-balling to try to give Obama a boos in the polls.

Facebook stock fell 8.1 percent to $28.25 at 4 p.m. in New York. It is down 26 percent since May when the California company sold shares in an initial public offering.

On Friday July 13 and the trap was set for investors. The hook was bated. Each day the lure was lowered and then it went back up and many investors would miss the daily worm. Then Friday the July 13 they knew they figured it out. Investors decide to buy when it by 10:45 Am and prices are low and sell by 3:45 and they make 0.8% in just one day. They are hooked. Some days later they do the same thing but their particular stock goes down 25% and the people who sold the stock short it and it loses 80% before they get out. That is now happening with many stocks like Cummins that Jim Crammer got hooked on himself.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney stuck at 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. 52% of investors say the economy is getting worse. At the beginning of the year only 37% thought it was getting worse.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week

Shoddy merchandise from the BRICS results in products that are failing across the free world and that has collapsed demand for products from the emerging world. The products are cheap but worthless. It is seen in full force this summer as heat waves traverse the Northern Hemisphere where imported air conditioning units are failing. Americans made units that had lasted 20 years have now been replaced by Mexican and Chinese products that are failing in 2 to 5 years. Shoddy imports are causing Westerners to boycott the products. $Billions of gypsum board manufactured with solidified Chinese toxic waste are eating away the wiring and plumbing in new houses and are about to be declared heath hazards. Shoddy products are the cause of the decline in trade with BRICS. The financial health of the BRICS has been grossly exaggerated.

Sales of offshore wind turbines collapsed 75% in the first half of 2012, a sign the power industry and its financiers are struggling in Germany and Britain. U.K. inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, its lowest rate in 2 1/2 years

The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further if socialists in Europe do not act with enough force and speed to end their welfare states and go back to the free enterprise system.

London home sellers cut prices by a record 3.6 percent for the month of July from June as an increase in supply added to pressure on the property market during the traditional summer lull.

Peugeot Citroen plunged to a new 23-year low over concerns that socialist Holland will interfere after they announced plans to close a factory and cut some jobs to save the company.

Chancellor Angela Merkel gave no ground on Germany’s demands for more central bank control over euro member states in return for joint burden-sharing as the region struggles to contain the debt crisis. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will issue its ruling on Sept. 12 the bids to halt Germany’s participation in the European Stability and the fiscal treaty. That’s a delay of more than two months.

Emerging markets faltered. News falsely reported Monday that they just had a six-week run-up and you can see they went down again in that time period. However, they will still do better than American stocks unless Obama is given the heave-ho.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering and 7% below the recent high but 20% higher than last year’s low: Choose 2 or 5 years. The DAX can’t even keep up with the DJI!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Markets are now faltering too but are better than the DOW industrials. All gave a sell signal last year. Remember a Dow signal requires a Rails confirmation. Last year the Dow set a new high but the Rails did not confirm so it is still a sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
Three more American cities went bankrupt last week.

Squawk Box said hedge funds are rife with Ponzi schemes again that will go bankrupt soon.

J.P. Morgan 2Q Profit fell and reported earnings that were down 9% from a year ago, as it struggles to bounce back from a $6 Billion loss on a bad hedging bet.

Crude Oil Futures Drop From One-Week High

US Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June falling for a third month in a row as small companies refuse to hire until they are certain the Obama Scare will not go into effect. The limited employment gains took a toll on consumers.

20% of the unemployed are not counted (the blue line) because they have given up on socialism and have joined John Gault in retirement.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

Retail Sales ex-auto Jun were down again by -0.4%

Empire Manufacturing Jul 7.improved slightly to 7.4

Business Inventories rose again in May this time by 0.3%. Inventory build-up means production must be cut.

Yesterday

PI Jun 0.0% up from -0.3% ok

Core CPI Jun 0.2% was.2% ok

Net Long-Term TIC Flows May $55.0 bln up from $25.6B the world is still buying our runaway debt

Industrial Production Jun 0.4% up from -0.1% good

Capacity Utilization Jun 78.9% declined from 79.0% bad

NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 35 was 29 This is complete fabrication

Today
Jul 18 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/14

Jul 18 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jun

Jul 18 8:30 AM Building Permits Jun

Jul 18 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/14

Jul 18 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Jun

This Week
Jul 19 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/14

Jul 19 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/07

Jul 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun

Jul 19 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jul

Jul 19 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jun


Market outlook July 18, 2012
The market is hitting upper resistance levels again. The stock market rally since 2009 was based on assumed economic recovery. We produced a stock market recovery that is entirely hollow and no economic recovery.

As of the end of the 3rd quarter 2011, Wall’s Street estimated for 2nd quarter 2012 S&P 500 earnings would increase of 14.3% and that was the basis for the market rally. The estimates have now plunged to consensus expectations of a rise of only 5.8% less than half the number used to justify this current market level.

We now expect the stock market will soon slump for at least two months or more. The market will likely continue to slump further if Obama is re-elected. It is too close to call just how bad it will be. It could get worse than in September of 2008 when Obama was first elected after he announced America was in a Great Depression.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily be taking America into a profoundly deep depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is still complacent and extremely dangerous.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and now is turning lower again. World trade has now almost completely collapsed with just having Obama malaise, without tariffs that were the blame for the collapse during FDR’s socialist experimentation that resulted in the last Great Depression. Clearly it is the corruption of socialism and its crony capitalism, not rigorous free enterprise, that always ends in collapse of production and then economic depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were down last night. China up 0.4%, Hong Kong down –1.1%, India up 0.5%, Taiwan down -1.1%, S. Korea down -1.5%, Japan up down –0.3%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of +0.8% to –0.5%

American market futures are down about -0.3% in after-hour trading at 7:00 AM EST.