Boltonct Commentary

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

China has been making noises and has been claiming they are stimulating and growing their economy for over a year now but many of China’s companies are essentially bankrupt shells at this point with little chance of a turn around. Bulk trade which is the indicator of China’s health has been dead for over a year now. Under socialism it is impossible to fire 50% of the workers at a steel plant and hire the same number somewhere else to build railroads and electrify rural areas. They now need to deal with infrastructure and high pollution if they are going to resume real national economic growth in value.

Under Obama’s socialism the USA now has the same problem with workers in highly automated American ports that do little and collect $180,000/yr and 9 weeks vacation every year. They are under executive request to do Obama a favor and not to shut down the entire American east and west seaboards as they voted to do.

The French market indicates stagnation since 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my

German stocks in 2013 are now all-time highs as when the bubbles burst in 2000 and 2007. See:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

A triple-dip recession looms as UK economy falters again. The British market indicates peaking in 2000 and stagnation since 2007. Look at the sharp spike up in is stock prices the last month as Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000 each month even exceeds the capacity of the American economy to absorb and it begins to be wasted on investments abroad of which most will be lost forever. QE crippled Japan by 1990 and they still have not recovered. The Obama/Bernanke bubble will destroy even the British, French, German and others that are being sucked into this socialist tornado of cash.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. But once again look at the spike up in stock prices with Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000/month gift from America to the stock and bond markets of the world as more people enter poverty, go hungry and lose their jobs under Socialism’s equality of poverty.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 but no spike up. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

American Economy

The stock market continues disengaged from the economy and is becoming increasingly unstable because the FED has created a balance sheet bloated at a rate of $85,000,000,000 per month. Volume is extremely low meaning very little cash can and is controlling the market.

The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high. Look at the spike up as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets each month. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

This week

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jan 22

Existing Home Sales Dec 4.94M down from 5.04M

Jan 23

MBA Mortgage Index 01/19 7.0% down sharply from 15.2%

MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/19 NA

FHFA Housing Price Index Nov 0.6% no change from 0.6%

Jan 24

Initial Claims 01/19 330K down slightly from 335K

Continuing Claims 01/12 3157K 3200K down slightly from 3214K

Leading Indicators Dec 0.5% Up due to the stock market from -0.2%

Natural Gas Inventories 01/19 -172 bcf fell from -148 bcf

Crude Inventories 01/19 2.813M up from -0.951M

Jan 25

New Home Sales Dec 369K down from the Nov 385K

Yet this is how the decline in New Home Sales is hyped….New-home sales the most since 2009.

See how Americans are deceived just like citizens were in the USSR and are in China today. Here is the real situation.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=home

Markets January 25, 2013

We need to look at Japan to see what will likely happen in America after the QE experiment because we are copying Japan’s Quantitative Easing that they used from 1985 to 1990. Japan’s stock market is now down about 70% from 1990. The question now is can we salvage America from the path of socialism Japan took; jobs for life. If we side step socialism the next question to ask is will there be a Democrat president elected again in the next 100 years?

It is intuitively obvious that if US treasury interest rates rise bond prices must fall. But the US has QE to keep rates low and if we continue we will only be more addicted to the QE high. If we stop QE we will have much higher unemployment. And if we never stop QE we get like Japan and bonds will be flat but stocks will plummet.

The DJ Rails confirmed a DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR had confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and both now confirmed a DOW buy signal too late to be worth a nickel. Those two indices are now so manipulated we would not trust them at all. They now are just an indicator of the waste of

taxpayer money going into stock markets instead of jobs, research, and liquidating the bankrupt housing overhang.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The VIX is down to where it was in 2007 before the last bubble burst. A low VIX normally precedes a panic sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Is the Baltic Dry Index is near a new low.

China

probably hit bottom.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

World stock market updates:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Friday, January 18, 2013

Was it a stroke of genius… or was it just an accident that President Obama’s threat of sharply higher taxes next year will bring in a bumper crop of tax revenue this year, 2013? This is good news that the American news media has not picked up on yet.

All the tax dodgers took profits in 2012 and asked that their dividends be pushed forward into 2012 thinking they would have to pay much more in 2014 if they didn’t pay the taxes in 2013. And some corporations gave their dividends for the first time in December rather than January just to help their shareholders avoid USA taxes due in 2014.

Let us examine their logic for a lower tax on dividends for one moment. It goes like this. They say a dividend tax is double taxation because the corporation already paid taxes on dividends which are usually from earnings. That however is not always true. There are companies that borrowed money to pay the dividends and even pay the CEO and other bigger bonuses. Those are companies that clearly are not run by entrepreneurs and they are bleeding those companies to death.

The dividend is a financial product of the corporation for the expressed purpose enticing people to buy the corporation stock with the incentive that they avoid a higher tax rate and the volatility (risk) of the stock market. The wealthiest families use dividends as a low risk, high return way to avoid taxes and investment in municipal bonds. Dividend taxes are not good for cities and states to impose them because wealth moves out. Only the Federal government can do dividend taxes wisely. We need things like dividends because they improve the stability of the economy especially for the elderly who cannot tolerate volatility well.

But isn’t a sales tax also a form of double taxation? It is… but it is but it applies to all competitive corporations products equally and to foreign products as well, so it does not hurt American inter-competition! That is why Europe uses the sales tax successfully.

But Americans pay a 20+% tax in Europe when they shop and can file and get the tax money back when they return to the USA. That creates unfair competition. The USA needs to tax that EU kickback because it damages America’s ability to compete and as long as America does not do it Europe will continue to do it. It was so bad 50 years ago that Americans would start their vacation by buying a new car on arrival in Europe at a low cost, tour Europe in it and have it shipped to the USA as a used car. The USA caught on to that. Another option is to negotiate with Europe to eliminate that game or put a 100% tax on that “sales tax EU kickback” and collect the EU sales tax for ourselves. That is not simple. The sales tax hurts balance of trade to some degree which is worse than vanilia double taxation.

Municipal bonds compete with dividends because both offer investment stability and a lower Federal tax. Dividends are a direct competitor with the needs of states and cities to raise capital. If dividend taxes were higher municipalities could pay a lower interest rate on their bonds because wealth would invest more in cities because dividends would be taxed higher. Only the Federal government can do a dividend tax with minimum effect on cities and states but must realize that at some point when taxes go up the wealthy will move out of the country. Today they already move out of municipalities and states that have dividend taxes.

Was that threat of a higher dividend tax a brilliant maneuver on the part of President Obama or just an unanticipated consequence? Now the tax dodgers raised their own taxes this year by moving some of their dividend income forward and President Obama will get a revenue boost. Warren Buffett must be happy.

The shame of socialism is the harassment of people who think and express themselves. They lose their jobs and they end up with nothing, living in poverty on the charity of family and friends. Great Americans such as Abraham Lincoln put up with a lot of criticism but he was a great American who knew it was wrong to misuse government power to harass critics because harassment is the method and mode of governments of socialist tyranny.

Winston Churchill said, “Some people (International socialists) regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. “Others (nationalist socialists) look on it as a cow they can milk.” But either kind of socialist tyranny spies on and harasses their citizens and ultimately does far, far worse things. That is when you know a tyranny is actually growing. Lincoln was a Republican reviled and hated by many and tolerated the free speech that truly was despicable towards both himself and his family but never lost sight of his ideals to end slavery. Had he employed harassment and been vindictive and arrogant he would have failed because America has and will never tolerate a tyrant. The second ammendment is there not there for hunters and sportsmen. The founding fathers made it clear that the second ammendment is there because it was necessary for Americans to overthrow their tyranic government in 1776 and the second ammendment gives Americans the right to do it again if necessary. The USSR lasted four decades only because they could not bear arms. It clearly puts any potential American tyrant on notice that tyranny will not be tolerated in America. The shame and damage from the exposure of USSR government harassment finally won Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn his freedom.

Nuclear physicist and writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said the following about the USSR.

For us in Russia, communism is a dead dog, while, for many people in the West, it is still a living lion.
Everything you add to the truth subtracts from the truth.
I have spent all my life under a Communist regime, and I will tell you that a society without any objective legal scale is a terrible one indeed. But a society with no other scale but the legal one is not quite worthy of man either.
In our country the lie has become not just a moral category but a pillar of the State.
It would have been difficult to design a path out of communism worse than the one that has been followed.
Our government declared that it is conducting some kind of great reforms. In reality, no real reforms were begun and no one at any point has declared a coherent program.
The name of "reform" simply covers what is latently a process of the theft of the national heritage.
Violence can only be concealed by a lie, and the lie can only be maintained by violence.
Woe to that nation whose literature is cut short by the intrusion of force. This is not merely interference with freedom of the press but the sealing up of a nation's heart, the excision of its memory.
We have arrived at an intellectual chaos.

When exposed to the public in all its self-evident leadership tyranny, harassment of citizens who think and express themselves is the beginning of the end for all demigods. Compassionate people eventually know the State has arrived at intellectual chaos when good people are harassed by government.

The Founding Fathers feared "The Dictatorship of the Majority." That is what both National Socialism and International Socialism are. Hitler and Stalin and all the rest came to power by "democratic vote." It might have been voter fraud but for all appearances it was democratic.

Thousands of New England roofs are now in danger of decay due to environmental agency restrictions on the materials in asphalt shingles that went into effect about ten years ago. Moss, mold, and fungus now attack them and weaken them. Homeowners have to hire people to power wash and treat the roofs and possibly far more damage is done to the environment. The agency should have done some homework before they passed their regulations. Scrap pieces of zinc metal is being put on many roofs as a temporary solution. The effects of the regulations in Eastern Europe were that they didn’t even paint their homes for the 50+ years they were under socialism (a dictatorship of the majority).

It was a shameful time when elected and employed state officials no longer helped citizens who were mistreated or harassed but instead become the harassers themselves.

Obama so far refuses to propose spending cuts to balance the out-of-control budget. The specter of a severe setback to the

U.S.

economy will exist until the President and Congress do something meaningful to get the spending binge under control.

President Obama must get serious about overdue spending cuts and the debt limit is the perfect time for it, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell pleaded. Republican John Boehner, the House of Representatives speaker, said: "The American people do not support raising the debt ceiling without reducing government spending at the same time."

It took 10 years and $1Trillion to place an American on the moon when America believed in exceptionalism. Today America is already running a deficit alone of over $1Trillion each year. Our children will be impoverished and our grandchildren will be starving like they did in Easter Europe, the USSR, N. Korea, and every country that destroys the incentive to work. China’s entire recent prosperity is the result of their experiment with American free enterprise and only a socialist is not capable of understanding that.

American industry has begun a surge in manufacturing thanks to American robotics development. The total cost of robot labor is now down to the cost of a Chinese factory worker. Soon American robots will bring US and foreign manufacturing back to the USA. Then in a few years China and Japan will have stolen patents and copied everything unless we make a chip breakthrough in small size and high complexity it cannot be copied. That is how the USA won the Cold War. In one example the USA produced cooled gas turbine blades that none of the Socialists could duplicate. Therefore when US fighters established speed records they were done under normal military limits that ensured at least 6000 flight cycles before overhaul. When the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) established their records it was that one single flight and then the engine was on the scrap heap for spare parts.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s economic index dropped to minus -5.8 from 4.6 in December. Readings lower than zero mean contraction in the area of eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The reinforce the significance of the New York Fed data released this week that showed factory activity shrank for a sixth month indicating that manufacturing, the pillar of the recovery has had its day in the light. The business news reported this week that deficits and refusal to reign in spending, expanding government, thousands of pages of change to business regulations, and stagnant prices give companies little hope for any positive change worth investing in at the present moment.

World Economies

Gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency region will stay unchanged in the three months through March, before rising 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent in the second and third quarters, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News monthly survey showed. GDP probably fell 0.4 percent last year and will decline 0.1 percent in 2013, economists said.

The World Bank on Jan. 15 cut its global growth estimate to 2.4 percent from 3 percent.

Brazil had 1% growth and 5.84 percent inflation in 2012. The BRICK is now RICK

China has been making noises and has been claiming they are stimulating and growing their economy for over a year now but investors who first believed the news still have not broken even and presently their stocks are looking pricy with many of China’s companies essentially bankrupt shells at this point with little chance of a turn around. They no need to deal with infrastructure and high pollution if they are going to resume real national economic growth in value.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

See what QE 1985 to 1990 did to Japan. Japan’s market indicates stagnation since 1990 when they ended their QE experiment.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my

German stocks in 2013 are now at the same highs as when the German markets collapsed of 2000 and 2007. See:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The British market indicates peaking in 2000 and stagnation since 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m20%2Ce50&a=m26-12-9&c=

The DOW is highly manipulated and the NASDAC tends to bubble up and burst.

American Economy

The stock market continues disengaged from the economy and is becoming increasingly unstable because the FED has created a bloated balance sheet. Volume is extremely low meaning very little cash can and is controlling the market.

The DJA is 2013 is also now at the highs before the market collapses of 2000 and 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA+Basic+Tech.+market Analysis&t=my

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

This week

Jan 15

Retail Sales Dec 0.5% improved slightly from 0.4%

Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.3% improved from 0.0%

Producer Prices I Dec -0.2% continued lower energy costs -0.8%

Core PPI Dec 0.1% no change 0.1%

Empire Manufacturing Jan -7.8 once more very bad -8.1

MBA Mortgage Index 01/12 15.2% NA NA 11.7% -

Jan 16

CPI Dec 0.0% stable -0.3%

Core CPI Dec 0.1% still low 0.1%

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov $52.3B back to normal from $1.3B

Industrial Production Dec 0.3% down sharply from 1.1%

Capacity Utilization Dec 78.8% improved from 78.4%

NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 47 flat at 47

Crude Inventories 01/12 -0.941M worsened from 1.314M

Jan 17

Initial Claims 01/12 335K down from 371K looks suspicious

Continuing Claims 01/05 3214K up sharply 3109K

Housing Starts Dec 954K up from 861K

Building Permits Dec 903K up from 899K

Philadelphia Fed Jan -5.8 much worse 8.1

Natural Gas Inventories 01/12 -148 bcf still getting worse -189 bcf

Jan 18

Mich Sentiment Jan 71.3 down again from 72.9

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

Markets January 18, 2012

We need to look at Japan to see what will likely happen in America after the QE experiment because we are copying Japan’s Quantitative Easing they used from 1985 to 1990. Japan’s stock market is down about 70% from 1990. In Japan the bond holders have not lost much but if they want to make money the Japanese invest in emerging markets not Europe or over valued markets like the USA’s stocks.

It is intuitively obvious is that if US treasury interest rates rise bond prices must fall. But the US has QE and as long as we continue we will be more addicted to QE. And if we never stop QE we get like Japan and bonds will be flat but stocks will plummet.

The DJ Rails are within 1% of confirming a DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR was recently rising faster than the DOW. The two are now converging toward a confirmation of a DOW buy signal possibly by mid year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails beat the last 3-month shoulder. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=1y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The USA VIX collapsed again. It seldom has stayed low this long. A low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. Volume indicated churning in December most probably profit taking before tax rates rise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Is the Baltic Dry Index is near a new low. China probably hit bottom.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

World stock market updates:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

https://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=fGaDAThOHhA

Friday, January 11, 2013

China has hit a major slowdown but China’s economic numbers are being manipulated in hopes that they can improve their balance sheets. China’s economic manipulation was uncovered in research by Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “Benford’s Law,” holds that in any series of numbers, certain patterns will be found only if the statistics are naturally generated, not manipulated. China yesterday said exports rose indicating improvement in the world’s second-biggest economy. But even that does not make sense since bulk trade is near an all time low so it looks like China is jaw boning and that could be a serious sign of a meltdown. Slowdowns are most likely in emerging markets with high old-age dependency ratios, strong investment rates and undervalued currencies that lower their industry incentives to move up the technology ladder. The study released said those are the patterns of current conditions and recent policies in China. “Middle-income countries may find themselves slowing down at lower income levels than implied by our earlier estimates,” said Eichengreen, Kwanho Shin of Korea University and Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank. See:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/china-data-suspected-says-75-year-old-theory-cutting-research.html

Winston Churchill said, “Some people (International socialists) regard private enterprise as a predatory tiger to be shot. Others (nationalist socialists) look on it as a cow they can milk. Not enough people (free enterprise) see it as a healthy horse, pulling a sturdy wagon. The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries. It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried. Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival. You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.”

Headline: Crime escalates in Australia as the government disarms the citizens.

Here are some more “Brainey Quotes”

The fact that we are here today to debate raising

America

's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I, therefore, intend to oppose the effort to increase

America

's debt. ~ Barack Obama in a Senate speech

I hereby accuse the North American empire of being the biggest menace to our planet. ~Hugo Chavez

How can we help Obama? ~Fidel Castro

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/f/fidel_castro.html

Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. The price of greatness is responsibility. Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential. You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life. There is no such thing as a good tax. ~Winston Churchill

Bloomberg reported that new infections among drug users in

Greece

have exploded 35-fold in two years, adding pressure on a strained medical system faced with shrinking resources due to the financial crisis. A socialist government hiring freeze and spending cuts aimed at curbing the nation’s spiraling debt threaten to extend the wait for expensive legal addictive opiate drugs that drug addicts get free in socialist Greece so that they can quit addictive illegal drugs. Isn’t socialism wonderfully stupid?

“Free World” American bankers agree that the socialist “Liar Loans” would never have been made by the private “Free World” banking sector because they could not qualify for private bank mortgage guarantees. Fannie M and Freddie M were created by the socialist liberals because they thought everyone in America should be able to have their own house. That took American socialism to a new level of stupidity. We have gone from American socialists wanting everyone having steak and potatoes and a warm place to sleep to everyone getting a Fannie or Freddie home. But instead of that, most of the Fannie and Freddie liar loans went for houses that the people they tried to help have since abandoned. Most were vandalized, stripped of copper wire and copper plumbing and in Detroit they have been set on fire and burned to the ground so criminals can collect the insurance. But Obama and Holder are still suing private “Free World” banks to force them to make more liar loans for Fannie and Freddie to guarantee.

Squawk Box on Wednesday showed the Obama fiscal policy scenarios. Tey all predict unemployment will not get below 6.8% for between 6 and 18 years even with the best (least is best) of Obama policies. It predicted the more redistribution Obama achieves the greater unemployment and poverty will grow. In Eastern Europe the people pretended they were doing things like good socialists love to pretend to do. Finally by 1989 the people in East Germany and the

USSR

were starving and the iron curtain was torn down so the food from the charitable Free World could enter and the slaves of socialism could escape.

World Economies

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

With orders for new ships plunging to an eight-year low in 2012, China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings and its local rivals are foraying into the offshore business, lured by a market that will reach about $328 billion in 2017. The new entrants are lowering prices to grab contracts, hurting margins at Singapore-based Keppel Corp. and Sembcorp Marine Ltd., the world’s two-biggest rig makers. “It’s like moving from one bottomless pit to another,” said Park Moo Hyun, an analyst at E*Trade Securities Co. in Seoul. “Chinese shipyards are competitively trying to get into what they see as a lucrative business. But the consequence of that is they could end up distorting the whole market.” China’s inflation accelerated to a seven-month high and may limit room for easing to support an economic recovery.

Japan may finally be bottoming from their Quantitative Easing (QE) started in 1985 which collapsed their market from 1990 until 2012. It looks like the bottom has held for two years now. When Bernanke stops his QE it is possible the US stocks will also decline for 20 years and USA debt will exceed 100% of the GDP as it still does in Japan. That is what QE did to Japan.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

German stocks in 2013 are now at the same highs as when the German markets collapsed of 2000 and 2007. See:

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The British market indicates peaking in 2000 and stagnation since 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my

The French market indicates stagnation since 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my

American Economy

The DJA is 2013 is also now at the highs before the market collapses of 2000 and 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA+Basic+Tech.+market Analysis&t=my

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

This week

Jan 8

Consumer Credit Nov $16.0B got worse from $14.2B

Jan 9

MBA Mortgage Index 01/05 11.7% got better from -10.4%

Crude Inventories 01/05 1.314M got better from -11.1M -

Jan 10

Initial Claims 01/05 371K got worse from 367K

Continuing Claims 12/29 3109K got suspiciously better from 3245K

Wholesale Inventories Nov 0.6% 0. got worse from 0.3%

AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/05 -189 bcf got worse from -135BCF

Jan 11

Trade Balance Nov -$48.7B got worse from -$42.2B

AM Export Prices ex-ag. Dec -0.2% got better from -0.7% but at a declining rate
Import Prices ex-oil Dec -0.1% got worse from -0.2% but 0.3% less worse than last months net

Markets January 11, 2012

The stock market has been disengaged from the economy for some time and is becoming increasingly unstable because the FED has created a bloated balance sheet. Coining a $1Trillion coin with Obama's face on it and giving it to the central bank as collateral to underwrite $1Trillion in US debt is essentially only the equivalent of Bernanke’s Quantitative Easing. Bernanke currently is merely putting up uncollectable mortgages the USA has from Fannie and Freddie as collateral for buying US treasuries which is just another form of collateral they can use. That is why the stock markets are at old highs and could collapse at any moment. The stock markets are awash with cash available from borrowing on uncollectable collateral worth about as much as a single $20Trillion

Zimbabwe

postage stamp. That would be a very rare stamp and QE is all about psychological games the seller plays on the buyer.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Is the Baltic Dry Index is near a new low. China probably hit bottom. They may block this info now

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

If that did not work, insert the following…

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

and then click on

/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Then select 5 years and you get close to the same chart they had before.

World stock market updates:

Friday, January 4, 2013

President Barack Obama is back in Hawaii for vacation after a tense four days in December with about 53 days before the fiscal cliff is faced again. President Obama warned lawmakers that he quickly will seek more tax revenue by cutting deductions for high earners and corporations and that he won’t bargain in the impending battle over raising the nation’s debt limit. Republicans in Congress say the spending cuts that were missing from this week’s agreement must feature prominently in the next fiscal deal.

There is now clearly an asset bubble starting in the world. It resembles 2004 but it is not real estate driving this bubble. It appears to be cash from the FED flowing into the stock market from banks and stimulus money. This bubble could break at any time but it is conceivable that it could run for three or possibly four years.

The amount of bills, notes and bonds coming due for Japan, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Brazil, Russia, India and China will drop in 2012 while the

U.S.

will face an increase. Bloomberg said

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner plans to leave the administration at the end of January.

The manufacturing index climbed from a three-year low of 49.5 in November to 50.7. Anything below 50 is a contraction.

The fiscal bill passed by Congress averts income-tax increases for most Americans while taxing top-earners more, yet does nothing to balance the budget and tame the accelerating federal debt. Moody's said that the U.S. needs to take more dramatic action than kicking the can down 60 days in order to shake the negative outlook on its top-notch debt rating.

Warren Buffet to take advantage of the one-year extension of a U.S. tax credit for wind power an industry that’s expected to stall this year.

World Economies

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

U.K. manufacturing rose to 51.4 from 49.2 in November the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said in London.

Denmark is struggling to recover from a real estate slump that’s pushed at least a dozen banks into insolvency since 2008. Property values have lost more than 20 percent since their 2007 peak and will probably drop 4.7 percent this year, the government-backed Economic Council predicts.

China’s Shanghai index ended up 3.2% for 2012, the first gain in three years. The Shanghai index lost 21.7% in 2011 and lost 14.3% in 2010.

Bolivian army and police seized buildings occupied by

Spain

’s utility, Iberdrola, on Dec. 29, after President Evo Morales ordered the nationalization. That is irony, the socialists nationalizing another socialist's property.

The pound strengthened against the euro after data business confidence for 2013 improved this month, indicating the control on spending is working.

Stocks in the fastest developing markets are lagging behind global equities for a third year as faster economic growth does not outweigh the losses from government interference in corporate management and markets. The shares in Brazil, Russia, India and China rose only 11 percent this year trailing the World by 1.6 percentage points. Mutual funds that invest in BRIC nations recently posted $1.65 billion of outflows as Brazilian politicians intervened to cut utility rates, China took control of its biggest companies and Russian businesses spent profits on projects favored by Putin.

Japan’s industrial output in November tumbled more than forecast to the lowest since the aftermath of the 2011 earthquake. The Yen is being dropped to stimulate exports spurring growth and countering deflation through a looser monetary policy and weaker yen. Japan may finally be bottoming from their Quantitative easing started in 1985 which collapsed their growth since 1990. It looks like the bottom has held for two years now.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Germany has now made a possible peak or breakout move. This could be the top of the world stock markets for a while until the USA and Greece get their acts together. But there is definitely an asset bubble inflating in the world.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

American Economy

The stock market has been disengaged from the economy for some time and is becoming increasingly unstable because the FED has created a bloated balance sheet.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

The US dollar initially started to fall last month under pressure as it is expected tax revenue falls off the end of 2013 and the 2014 projected deficit explodes and because China said it was considering downgrading the American credit rating. That would cause interest rates to rise beyond the FEDs ability to control. When it eventually happens that will cause bonds to plunge first and bond money will flow into stocks… but stock investors will very likely simultaneously panic and sell everything and go into cash. Slowly the Obama administration has been lowering or removing the FED guarantees for all formerly Federally Insured assets. Brokerage firms will collapse and pay out cents on the dollar. Obviously the FED can’t allow this and suddenly the weak dollar strengthened again this week. The fiscal debt and the bloated FED balance sheet are two enormous risks. If they explode together senior citizens assets and corporation assets will be wiped out over night. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner plans to resign soon. Who can blame him?

This week

Jan 2

MBA Mortgage Index 12/29 again omitted! sharply lower?

ISM Index Dec 50.7 no longer contracting as last time 49.5

Construction Spending Nov -0.3 sharply lower than 1.4%

Jan 3

MBA Mortgage Index 12/29 -21.6 much, much worse than -12.3% obviously release was delayed twice

Challenger Job Cuts Dec -22.1% much much worse than 34.4% last month

ADP Employment Change Dec 215K increased private hiring from 118K

Initial Claims 12/29 372K up from 350K

Continuing Claims 12/22 3245K much worse than last week 3206K

AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/29

Jan 4

Nonfarm Payrolls Dec

Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec

Unemployment Rate Dec

Hourly Earnings Dec

Average Workweek Dec

Factory Orders Nov

ISM Services Dec

Crude Inventories 12/29

American markets

The markets have been disengaged from the economy for some time due to the FED pumping cash into the system with little effective deployment. The inflation has been channeled into stocks and bonds raising their prices and risks simultaneously. Many think this is another opportunity to take profits because the Fiscal Cliff still looms in about 53 days. But when the FED bubble bursts there will be no time to get on the sidelines. It will likely be a flash crash. Many markets have now given buy signals at their current highs. But when the world realizes the current administration has no intension of ever balancing the budget the US credit rating will collapse.

Dollar volume remains very thin (down 60%) at record lows which means a 60% lower selling volume could cause the same level crash that began the day Obama was elected. Yes Obama’s election was the leading indicator for the effects of socialist policies.

http://www.otcbb.com/dynamic/tradingdata/sharedollarvolume/dollar.htm

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development report "Education at a Glance 2010" said that among 18 countries tracked by the OECD, the United States finished lowest (46 percent) for the percentage of students who completed college once they started it. That is right, 54% of Americans now drop out of college and who do you think pays for that? USA is behind Slovakia with record high school and College dropout rates.

Slovakia

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-do-so-many-americans-drop-out-of-college/255226/

http://www.freegovernmentcellphones.net/

Why doesn’t Obama support a strong mother-father core family structure like he himself has instead of a Hilary Clinton “It takes a Village” structure? America was the leader in the civilized world until the tribal village structure replaced the core respected mother and father family that America and the developed world found worked best.

When it costs nothing there is no incentive to finish and earn back the cost of college. Obama’s policies are causing a massive increase in welfare costs because Obama is destroying the hope that his followers had of a better life. Education and jobs, not education loans and welfare are what encourage and create “hope and change”. An education loan creates a debt that destroys hope. Hard work studying creates smarts that gets a scholarship not a loan. Scholarships are recognition of hard work and truly trying to make a better world. Why not offer scholarships to the students who work hard and study. Why do we believe in an "equality of debt and poverty."

If a child has no exposure to competent parenting the child cannot become a competent parent. Incompetent parenting is often the cause teachers give for the breakdown in what continues to be an excellent educational system for American students who truly wish to learn. While the average American student scores below the average European student the highest achieving 5% of Americans are roughly in the top 1%. Teacher competency is not the issue with education, parent competency is a bigger issue.
As children our personal feelings are based on our experiences and they tell us who and what are relevant, reliable, and trustworthy. They allow us to choose the people we wish to learn from and who to consult for advice on how to make decisions and lead our lives. Unfortunately parents who have no interest in their children’s education deep down know they are the problem and tend to avoid and not support teachers. Poverty is not the result of lack of education it is more the result of choices such as not practicing reading, doing no homework, and hanging with fools and thugs.
A poor education is perhaps less than 20% the fault of poor teachers and more than 80% the fault of poor parenting. The special bonding of competent parents with their children that only humans have for ten or more years is essential for the children to develop the kind of emotional intelligence that leads to a positive life rather than to a life of crime or poverty. Good teachers can help fill the gap caused by parent incompetence but competent parenting is really what is needed if world poverty is to be overcome. Overpopulation, poverty, ignorance, and abuses of women and children are all highly correlated.

The DJ Rails are within 3% of confirming a DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR is rising faster than the DOW. The two are now converging toward a confirmation of a DOW buy signal possibly by mid year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Is the Baltic Dry Index is near a new low. China probably hit bottom. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.ss;range=2y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Stock market update:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvgvLX3xL68

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Obama showed no leadership again and kicked the Fiscal Cliff down the road 60 days with a bill that had no cuts only tax and spending increases. So far the Federal deficit rose 64% between when Obama was elected in 2008 and re-elected in 2012. Obama’s debts took the USA from 3% of the GDP to 9%... or to the level during the Civil War. It could have been worse since it is not as bad as WWII spending yet. But at Obama’s current rate it will be much worse when he leaves office. That is right, the Obama Welfare State as currently on track to cost more than defeating the Nazi and Japanese Socialists in WWII. Now the delayed Fiscal Cliff and the Debt ceiling will hit the stock market together in two months.

This chart provides the statistics used above.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

He has yet to start his domestic army to turn America into a socialist state.

Reports showed Dec. 28 commodity contracts outstanding across the members of the GSCI are headed for the biggest monthly contraction since last June. Commodity speculators reduced net-long positions across futures and options by 11 percent last week, the lowest since the summer. Gold holdings reached a four-month low, while copper dropped for the first time in five weeks. Natural gas hit the lows of last May.

World Economies

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

China’s Shanghai index ended up 3.2% for 2012, the first gain in three years. The Shanghai index lost 21.7% in 2011 and lost 14.3% in 2010.

Bolivian army and police seized buildings occupied by

Spain

’s utility, Iberdrola, on Dec. 29, after President Evo Morales ordered the nationalization.

The pound strengthened against the euro after data business confidence for 2013 improved this month, indicating the control on spending is working.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Germany

has not made a breakout move... However it is close and could have a breakout soon. This could be the top of the world stock markets until the USA and Greece get their acts together.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

American Economy

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

The US dollar is starting to fall under pressure as it is expected tax revenue falls off in 2013 and the 2014 projected deficit explodes.

This week

Dec 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/22 not given-suspected very bad as the -12.3% last time.

The Mortgage Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from the previous week to while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. See

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/mba-mortgage-applications-decline.html

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Oct 4.3% year over year up from 3.0%

Continuing Claims 12/15 3206K 3200K 3200K stable 3225K

New Home Sales Nov 377K up slightly from 368K

Consumer Confidence Dec 65.1 down sharply again from 73.7

Dec 28

Chicago PMI Dec 51.6 up slightly from 50.4 where anything below 50 is a contraction.

Pending Home Sales Nov 1.7% down sharply from 5.2% last month.

Crude Inventories 12/21 -0.6M down again from -.96M

Next Week

Jan 2 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/29

Jan 2 10:00 AM ISM Index Dec

Jan 2 10:00 AM Construction Spending Nov

Jan 2 2:00 PM Auto Sales Dec

Jan 2 2:00 PM Truck Sales Dec

Jan 3 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Dec

Jan 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Dec

Jan 3 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/29

Jan 3 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/22

Jan 3 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/29

Jan 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Dec

Jan 4 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec

Jan 4 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Dec

Jan 4 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Dec

Jan 4 8:30 AM Average Workweek Dec

Jan 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Nov

Jan 4 10:00 AM ISM Services Dec

Jan 4 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 12/29

Markets January 2, 2012

The market will likely have a sigh of relief today. Many think this is another opportunity to take profits because the Fiscal Cliff still looms in 60 days.

Retirees are moving money from IRAs to Roth IRAs to avoid higher taxes on accumulated income. Consumers are already spending most of their disposable income so higher taxes translate directly into reduced consumer consumption. We are already seeing deflationary pressure and are tip toeing around a great double dip Obama depression like the on the socialist FDR had. He is not considered a socialist today but was considered one in his time. It just shows the USA is slowly creeping toward socialism with its poverty, class warfare and its union violence.

But by April 15, tax revenue will be increasing because people are taking profits now before the tax increase. Taxes on those profits come due next year. So the benefits of the surge in tax revenue will sharply reduce deficits because it will be exaggerated two fold in 2013 mostly because people are taking profits before 2013 begins. But that extra tax in 2013 will not be available in future years and the extreme increase in taxes next year will cause people to try to postpone taking 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 profits. That will make 2014 a disaster because deficits will rise sharply in a likely deeper 2013-16 recession. The USA will look much like Greece if Obama does not cut spending. But if he cuts spending the recession will initially be deeper. Still it will at least come to an end sooner.

So at present many are taking profits before the new taxes but it may not be advisable to re-invest profits right now as they are doing. We know that because volume is up but the market is just churning. What Obama is doing will make things progressively worse. He is not bright enough to know the revenue in 2013 is not his policy but the negative reaction to his negative policy (which is a positive tax windfall). That revenue will be wasted again and tax revenue will plummet in 2014 because there will be few corporate profits in 2013.

The DJ Rails continue to contradict the DJIndustrials and there still no DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. But evidence is that the two are now converging and it is a matter of there being another rally.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed to meet even the last 3-month shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal. But bulk trade is rising and October looks like a turn around beginning.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=1m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The USA VIX is possibly setting up for a major sell signal. It seldom has stayed low this long. A low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. Volume indicated churning in December most probably profit taking before tax rates rise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Is the Baltic Dry Index is dropping toward a new low. China probably hit bottom and has begun to bounce like a dead cat…unfortunately. And Obama stalling the American economy will compound the worldwide recession.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update: