There is now clearly an asset bubble starting in the world. It resembles 2004 but it is not real estate driving this bubble. It appears to be cash from the FED flowing into the stock market from banks and stimulus money. This bubble could break at any time but it is conceivable that it could run for three or possibly four years.
The amount of bills, notes and bonds coming due for Japan , the U.K. , Germany , France , Italy , Brazil , Russia , India and China will drop in 2012 while the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner plans to leave the administration at the end of January.
The manufacturing index climbed from a three-year low of 49.5 in November to 50.7. Anything below 50 is a contraction.
The fiscal bill passed by Congress averts income-tax increases for most Americans while taxing top-earners more, yet does nothing to balance the budget and tame the accelerating federal debt. Moody's said that the U.S. needs to take more dramatic action than kicking the can down 60 days in order to shake the negative outlook on its top-notch debt rating.
Warren Buffet to take advantage of the one-year extension of a U.S. tax credit for wind power an industry that’s expected to stall this year.
World Economies
Bolivian army and police seized buildings occupied by Spain
The pound strengthened against the euro after data business confidence for 2013 improved this month, indicating the control on spending is working.
Stocks in the fastest developing markets are lagging behind global equities for a third year as faster economic growth does not outweigh the losses from government interference in corporate management and markets. The shares in Brazil , Russia , India and China China
The stock market has been disengaged from the economy for some time and is becoming increasingly unstable because the FED has created a bloated balance sheet.
The US dollar initially started to fall last month under pressure as it is expected tax revenue falls off the end of 2013 and the 2014 projected deficit explodes and because China
This week
Jan 2
MBA Mortgage Index 12/29 again omitted! sharply lower?
ISM Index Dec 50.7 no longer contracting as last time 49.5
Construction Spending Nov -0.3 sharply lower than 1.4%
Jan 3
MBA Mortgage Index 12/29 -21.6 much, much worse than -12.3% obviously release was delayed twice
Challenger Job Cuts Dec -22.1% much much worse than 34.4% last month
ADP Employment Change Dec 215K increased private hiring from 118K
Initial Claims 12/29 372K up from 350K
Continuing Claims 12/22 3245K much worse than last week 3206K
AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/29
Jan 4
Nonfarm Payrolls Dec
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec
Unemployment Rate Dec
Hourly Earnings Dec
Average Workweek Dec
Factory Orders Nov
ISM Services Dec
Crude Inventories 12/29
The markets have been disengaged from the economy for some time due to the FED pumping cash into the system with little effective deployment. The inflation has been channeled into stocks and bonds raising their prices and risks simultaneously. Many think this is another opportunity to take profits because the Fiscal Cliff still looms in about 53 days. But when the FED bubble bursts there will be no time to get on the sidelines. It will likely be a flash crash. Many markets have now given buy signals at their current highs. But when the world realizes the current administration has no intension of ever balancing the budget the US
Dollar volume remains very thin (down 60%) at record lows which means a 60% lower selling volume could cause the same level crash that began the day Obama was elected. Yes Obama’s election was the leading indicator for the effects of socialist policies.
http://www.otcbb.com/dynamic/tradingdata/sharedollarvolume/dollar.htm
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development report "Education at a Glance 2010" said that among 18 countries tracked by the OECD, the United States USA is behind Slovakia Slovakia
Why doesn’t Obama support a strong mother-father core family structure like he himself has instead of a Hilary Clinton “It takes a Village” structure? America was the leader in the civilized world until the tribal village structure replaced the core respected mother and father family that America
When it costs nothing there is no incentive to finish and earn back the cost of college. Obama’s policies are causing a massive increase in welfare costs because Obama is destroying the hope that his followers had of a better life. Education and jobs, not education loans and welfare are what encourage and create “hope and change”. An education loan creates a debt that destroys hope. Hard work studying creates smarts that gets a scholarship not a loan. Scholarships are recognition of hard work and truly trying to make a better world. Why not offer scholarships to the students who work hard and study. Why do we believe in an "equality of debt and poverty."
If a child has no exposure to competent parenting the child cannot become a competent parent. Incompetent parenting is often the cause teachers give for the breakdown in what continues to be an excellent educational system for American students who truly wish to learn. While the average American student scores below the average European student the highest achieving 5% of Americans are roughly in the top 1%. Teacher competency is not the issue with education, parent competency is a bigger issue.
As children our personal feelings are based on our experiences and they tell us who and what are relevant, reliable, and trustworthy. They allow us to choose the people we wish to learn from and who to consult for advice on how to make decisions and lead our lives. Unfortunately parents who have no interest in their children’s education deep down know they are the problem and tend to avoid and not support teachers. Poverty is not the result of lack of education it is more the result of choices such as not practicing reading, doing no homework, and hanging with fools and thugs.
A poor education is perhaps less than 20% the fault of poor teachers and more than 80% the fault of poor parenting. The special bonding of competent parents with their children that only humans have for ten or more years is essential for the children to develop the kind of emotional intelligence that leads to a positive life rather than to a life of crime or poverty. Good teachers can help fill the gap caused by parent incompetence but competent parenting is really what is needed if world poverty is to be overcome. Overpopulation, poverty, ignorance, and abuses of women and children are all highly correlated.
As children our personal feelings are based on our experiences and they tell us who and what are relevant, reliable, and trustworthy. They allow us to choose the people we wish to learn from and who to consult for advice on how to make decisions and lead our lives. Unfortunately parents who have no interest in their children’s education deep down know they are the problem and tend to avoid and not support teachers. Poverty is not the result of lack of education it is more the result of choices such as not practicing reading, doing no homework, and hanging with fools and thugs.
A poor education is perhaps less than 20% the fault of poor teachers and more than 80% the fault of poor parenting. The special bonding of competent parents with their children that only humans have for ten or more years is essential for the children to develop the kind of emotional intelligence that leads to a positive life rather than to a life of crime or poverty. Good teachers can help fill the gap caused by parent incompetence but competent parenting is really what is needed if world poverty is to be overcome. Overpopulation, poverty, ignorance, and abuses of women and children are all highly correlated.
The DJ Rails are within 3% of confirming a DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR is rising faster than the DOW. The two are now converging toward a confirmation of a DOW buy signal possibly by mid year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails beat the last 3-month shoulder. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=1y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
The USA VIX collapsed again. It seldom has stayed low this long. A low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. Volume indicated churning in December most probably profit taking before tax rates rise.
Is the Baltic Dry Index is near a new low. China
Stock market update:
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