Boltonct Commentary: June 2013

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

June 27 Chinese companies are no longer in the ranks of the world’s 10 biggest stocks by market value for the first time since 2006 amid a cash crunch, slower growth and hostage taking of an American factory owner for ransom.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/0626/Meet-the-American-factory-owner-held-for-ransom-in-China

Increasingly high interest rates under Jimmy Carter killed the stock market in the 1970’s and lead to record high gold prices. Gold and interest rates rise together with inflation and the stock market generally goes nowhere until supply side economics of cheap energy is restored.

The CFTC formally charged former governor Jon Corzine and former assistant treasurer Edith O’Brien for corrupt practices in violating regulations relating to segregated customer accounts at MF Global. While it is obviously good for Americans to conserve resources and not waste or pollute, socialists would rather create and profit from a highly emotional fraud on the public to line their pockets with government wasted dollars from such as Solyndra and other shadow businesses like MF Global and causing job losses by preventing pipelines and gas exploration needed to keep energy prices reasonable and America growing and independent of the al Qaeda influenced Arab oil cartel.

China is on the verge of an uncontrolled financial collapse of their credit system due to loans corporations get from the Bank of China and then turn around charging high interest rates on high risk shadow loans to ventures that can’t and should not get the loans. The risks of defaults and a collapse of credit are now much higher as a result. For over a year trade has been down sharply and China had fraudulently reported as much as 40% higher trade. It is estimated growth is less than 4% not more than 7% as reported in China. Fraud is the status quo for socialist countries which operate under the delusion that government is a creator not a consumer. The only thing governments can create is fraud, waste, and train wrecks. They are inept at selecting technologies to support. They tend to believe corrupt inept individuals with degrees from socialist run institutions. Every scientist knows we have global warming but only the inept or corrupt Neanderthal socialists don’t apparently know global warming and then cooling has been going on well before Neanderthals migrated from Africa.

Greenspan said that the problem with QE3 is that the FED has no control over free markets and the market not the FED will end QE3. The FED has not begun cutting it’s buying of US debt! The free market has begun dumping US debt bonds because the world is now demanding higher interest rates. When the FED does actually begin reducing FED bond purchases interest rates will get much, much worse.

The Obama-Bernanke “spend our way out of debt plan” has clearly failed. As you can see this decline may not be over yet even if we do get a bounce. And if it is like 2012 or worse yet 2011 it could go two or three times lower than it has gone thus far.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200%2Ce50&a=m26-12-9&c=

Stocks suffer with higher interest rates because debt cost and inflation cut profit margin and make stock buy backs expensive. The end of the bull market always comes with higher interest rates and a decelerating economy.

That is what happened under Jimmy Carter when gold prices soared over 1000%. Inflation not deflation causes gold to increase in relative value. The guest on MSNBC Squawk Box on Wednesday had that backwards and no one on the show corrected him. We in 2013 are entering a situation similar to the end of Jimmy Carter’s last term. We need a real leader like former President Reagan to get us out of the socialist swamp Obama put us in. We may have another sharp Obama recession and inflation (a high Jimmy Carter type misery index) before the dust settles. The Fed also stands to lose 60% or more of the value of their QE3 balance sheet assets sharply increasing American national debt as interest rates rise.

Three weeks ago the Hindenburg Omen was confirmed. The Hindenburg Omen is an indication that the market became contrived (polarized) not necessarily illegally but in large part because of a type of group-think advice that evolves. Suddenly a particularly large wealthy group acts systematically and small investors get clobbered. Jim Cramer is currently a primary agent in the creation of stock market group-think and he himself has become the ultimate Hindenburg Omen. When Jim Cramer ever becomes bearish you know the stock market is up in flames.

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

Jiangxi Copper Co. China’s biggest producer of the metal, dropped 4.6 percent in Hong Kong. Copper prices are a portal for seeing what lies ahead. Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., a unit of China’s largest shipbuilder, plunged 17 percent after announcing plans to sell shares and buy a shipyard. Trade is another indication on what lies ahead and now may not be the time to expand.

Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The SandP is parabolic at old inflation adjusted resistance levels which were set in 2000 and 2007 and at this level it has not even matched inflation. Simple mathematics says that after a 66.6% drop in value it has to go up 300% from the low to get back to breaking even. The market (accounting for inflation) was lower in 2007 than in 2002 and is lower now in 2013 than in 2007. And MSNBC/Pravda says we are recovering because we are at the same stock market level we had in early 2000 before the Clinton recession, the Bush election and 911.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy

Jun 25

Durable Orders May 3.6% unchanged from 3.6% -

Durable Goods -ex transportation May 0.7% down from 1.5% ---

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr 12.1% up from 10.9% +

FHFA Housing Price Index Apr 0.7% down from 1.3% ---

Consumer Confidence Jun 81.4 up from 76.2 + Is much hyped but actually not very high. In the 1990’s it was over 140 or about 60% higher, See:

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

New Home Sales May 476K up from 466K + Also much hyped but still terribly low.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=home

Jun 26

MBA Mortgage Index 06/22 -3.0% down from -3.3% ---

GDP - Third Estimate Q1 1.8% down sharply from 2.4% ---

GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q1 1.2% up from 1.1% --

Crude Inventories 06/22 0.018M down from 0.313M

Jun 27

Initial Claims 06/22 346K down from 355K +

Continuing Claims 06/15 2965K up from 2951K -

Personal Income May 0.5% up from 0.1% ++

Personal Spending May 0.3% up from -0.2% +

PCE Prices - Core May 0.1% up from 0%

Pending Home Sales May 6.7% up from - 0.4+++

The Markets June 27, 2013

Obama is employing the same near sighted policies that Carter employed but for different reasons. Carter thought we were running out of fossil fuels and Obama thinks we are just burning too much fossil fuels. One thought there was too little and we had to conserve. The other thinks there is too much and we need to cut back. Both have been wrong and apparently understand very little about energy and thus created unemployment and misery during their terms in office.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/061511-575513-return-of-the-dreaded-misery-index.htm

The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock market is about to be shattered. The great increase in wealth exists in paper like shares of stocks and bonds. When the bull market ends the wealth effect ends. This Bernanke QE3 is not sustainable it is another bubble phenomenon that pops when it deflates. And as Greenberg suggested the market determines when it pops and it appears after a small recovery it will be ready to pop. The net drop we estimate will be two to three times as large as the initial drop similar to 2011 in magnitude and timing.

Anyone getting into the stock market will take a hair cut soon.

This market appears to be both polarized and topping due to systemic churning of small investors by market manipulators like MSNBC’s Jim Crammer who is their primary cheer leader. The manipulators rotate in and out telling small investors to buy and then sell right after they buy and sell.

The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=target

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Monday, June 24, 2013

June 24 MSNBC reports that China is on the verge of an uncontrolled financial collapse. For over a year trade has been down sharply and China fraudulently reported 40% higher trade. It is estimated growth is less than 4% not more than 7% as reported in China. Fraud is the status quo for socialist countries which operate under the delusion that government is a creator not a consumer. The only thing governments can create is fraud, waste, and train wrecks. They are inept at selecting technologies to support. They tend to believe corrupt inept individuals with degrees from socialist run institutions. Every scientist knows we have global warming but only the inept or corrupt don’t apparently know we have had approximately 10 cycles of global warming and cooling in the last one million years. It is natural and that glacial global warming then cooling cycle began well before Neanderthals migrated from Africa.

While it is good to conserve resources and not waste, socialists would rather create a highly emotional fraud on the public to line their pockets with government wasted dollars such as Solyndra.
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/figure1.html

We are believed to be in the fifth great “Ice Age” which started almost 2.6 million years ago with the Earth being about 4.9 billion years old.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation

The contention that global warming is caused by humans burning fossil fuels is hotly contested.

http://www.co2science.org/subject/c/summaries/glacialcycles.php

More than 30,000 scientists including Edward Teller say global warming is natural not man made.

http://petaluma.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=3&clip_id=986&meta_id=190703

http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2008/07/01/30000-scientists-sign-petition-global-warming

The problem is that the FED has not begun cutting it’s buying of

debt but that the world has begun dumping US debt bonds and the world is now demanding higher interest rates. So when the FED does actually begin reducing bond purchases things will get much, much worse.

The US stock market bounced twice at its lower resistance level over the past six months and a downside breakdown at this point would set off numerous sell signals and possibly be the start of a bear market. That could happen with another 1.5% to 3% net decline.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200%2Ce50&a=m26-12-9&c=

The US stock market has failed so far to decisively break through the upper resistance levels of 2000 and 2008 and 2013. US treasuries slumped, pushing 10-year yields to the highest since 2011, as government bonds from Australia to Germany slid as the Obama-Bernanke spend our way out of debt plan has clearly failed. Spending on welfare and food stamps and pumping up the stock market has made the wealthiest 7% of Americans an estimated 26% wealthier and the bottom 93% of Americans 6% poorer now. That is a net loss for America and the world economy. Governments are manned and run by lazy opportunists looking for a cushy job with no responsibility. The head of the IRS says she was clueless about their political harassment in apparent illegal and Unconstitutional support of Obama’s election campaign.

Obama will provide arms and ammunition to the al-Qaeda rebels who now lead the opposition to the Syrian state after saying Bashar al- Assad’s forces used chemical weapons in the civil war against the al-Qaeda rebels.

http://www.dailypaul.com/289024/usa-today-syrian-rebels-pledge-loyalty-to-al-qaeda

Once again we warn that if you check your ETFs against the underlying commodities or sectors you will find many have no correlation. We have heard ETF advocates say the lack of correlation is due to the false values of the commodities and the “true market assessment” is from the ETF traders. That ETF claim is not just delusional; an eventual collapse of the ETFs will show that those ETF claims are overt fraud. If your ETF does not correlate with the underlying stocks or if the ETF does not give you a method for weighting the values of the components then you are at extreme risk that the ETF is either managed incompetently or fraudulently and you had better beware. We predict these popular derivatives will underlie a future financial crisis.

The stock market will rapidly lose value as interest rates rise because the return on market risk will be dropping two ways. First the risk free rates will be higher. Secondly all the low interest debt accumulated since 2007 will be rotating into higher interest debt. That is what killed Greece. They could afford their debt ten years ago but not 5 years ago. But once debt costs eat into stock profit margin… stocks will be clobbered just as much as bonds. And people who took a hair cut in stocks before they switched to bonds and then made a profit in bonds had better take profits fast and not get into stocks because stocks will be giving haircuts again along with bonds.

Stocks suffer three ways with higher interest rates; debt cost and inflation on profit margin, competition from new bonds offering higher returns and low risk, and the end of the bull market that always comes with higher interest rates and a decelerating economy. We in 2013 are entering a situation similar to the end of Jimmy Carter’s last term. We may have a sharp recession before the dust settles. But world currencies will also come under attack again and George Soros will no doubt lead the attacks. Then he will switch back to gold. The stock market is now tightening the noose around the FED’s neck. The Fed stands to lose 60% or more of the value of their QE3 balance sheet assets sharply increasing American national debt.

Two weeks ago the Hindenburg Omen was confirmed. A Hindenburg Omen predicts a rising chance of a stock market crash because when a market has reached beyond its grasp. The major fund market manipulators begin to reinforce one another to gain additional profits by signaling which sectors are hot and which sectors will soon be abandoned. Right now they say dump dividend stocks and by the cyclicals.

That happens when there are insufficient funds to float all the boats so they informally signal which overextended sectors will be sunk. This is when the market is churned. Consequently they polarize the market and crush the small investors caught in the downdraft that wipes out previous profits and other investors who have no idea the market is being orchestrated. So the Hindenburg Omen is an indication that the market is contrived not necessarily illegally but in large part because of a type of group-think that evolves. Suddenly a particularly large wealthy group acts systematically and abandons some stock groups in favor of others.

The Hindenburg Omen is not predictable (or at least not in the past) because the manner in which the wealthy reach a consensus is not given in any text book. Jim Cramer is currently a primary agent in the creation of stock market group-think and he is the ultimate Hindenburg Omen. When Jim Cramer ever becomes bearish you know the stock market is up in flames.

The Hindenburg Omen is a complex set of conditions that all must be met for an occurrence to be valid:

The number of New York Stock Exchange 52-week highs and lows must both be greater than 2.5% of the total issues traded that day. This is market polarization into the haves and have-nots.

The smaller of the 52-week highs and lows must be greater than or equal to 79.

The NYSE's 10-week moving average must be rising. This is market extreme polarization of the market.

The McClellan Oscillator, a measure of market breadth based on exponential moving averages of advancing and declining stocks, must be negative saying the haves have peaked and the average is falling.

The number of 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52-week lows. Otherwise the market is not divided enough and money is still flowing into the market.

The first occurrence of a Hindenburg Omen must be matched by at least once more within 36 trading days for there to be "confirmation" of the signal. This is a confirmation that it is persistent and therefore probably running out of steam.

Once a Hindenburg Omen signal has been confirmed, the probability of a market downturn within the next several months of 5% or greater is 67.8%. There is then a likelihood of progressively more severe drops.

Bloomberg reported that Gold traders are the most bullish in two months since the retreat in equities from an almost five-year high and a weakening dollar spurred demand for bullion.

Jim Cramer on the morning show June 6 indicated the best thing for the market right now is to have FED thinking polarized and indecisive with the job numbers not strong so the FED does nothing… yet not weak so investors do not sell. He got his wish and the market erased half the recent losses.

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

Euro-area bonds fell after negotiations among the 27-member bloc’s finance ministers stalled over the weekend in Luxembourg. They failed to agree on assigning losses at failing banks as part of proposed rules on bank resolution and recovery. They failed to stave off a resurgence of market tremors. European stocks fell for a fifth day, erasing their gains for 2013.

Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI+Basic+Chart&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy

Jun 17

Empire Manufacturing Jun 7.8 better than -1.4 ++

Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr negative --

NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 52 better than 44 +

Jun 18

CPI May 0.1% erratic -0.4% - -

Core CPI May 0.2% deflationary 0.1% - -

Housing Starts May 914K up from 853K ++

Building Permits May 974K contracting from 1017K ---

Jun 19

MBA Mortgage Index 06/15 -3.3% bad decline 5.0% ---

Crude Inventories 06/15 0.313M contracting from 2.523M -

FOMC Rate Decision Jun QE# is out of control and a stimulant like opium not an economic stimulus. ------

Jun 20

Initial Claims 06/15 354K worse than 334K ---

Continuing Claims 06/08 2951K manipulated 2973K ---

Existing Home Sales May 5.18M improved 4.97M +++

Philadelphia Fed Jun 12.5 manipulated -5.2 ---

Leading Indicators May 0.1% worse 0.6% ---

Natural Gas Inventories 06/15 91 bcf down 95 bcf -

The Markets June 24, 2013

Anyone getting into the stock market at these inflated values will take a hair cut soon.

This market appears to be both polarized and topping due to systemic churning of small investors by market manipulators like MSNBC’s Jim Crammer who is their primary cheer leader. They rotate in and out telling small investors to buy and then sell right after they do.

Volume on the latest market advances was extremely low. The volume is now 30% higher on declines. So far the markets failed to break the previous highs of 2000 and 2007 and investors will know they are late selling when Jim Cramer says to sell.

Japan has a national debt that is 214% of their GDP because they have been using QE since 1990. Greece only has a national debt 161% of their GDP. The USA is currently at 74% but Obama will have the USA debt over 200% by the time he leaves office if he does to stop QE3 and cut welfare programs to give poor Americans an incentive to work for minimum wage just as almost every middle class American and successful entrepreneur started and were grateful for the chance to be productive human beings.

The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. It is still a bearish sign that as the market breaks down small investors have remained bullish!

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

June 14 The US stock market bounced twice at its current lower resistance level and a breakdown at this point would set off numerous sell signals and possibly be the start of a bear market.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=1m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The

stock market has failed so far to decisively break through the upper resistance levels of 2000 and 2008 and 2013.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://www.dailypaul.com/289024/usa-today-syrian-rebels-pledge-loyalty-to-al-qaeda

Once again we warn that if you check your ETFs against the underlying commodities or sectors you will find many have no correlation. We have heard ETF advocates say their lack of correlation is due to the false values of the commodities themselves and the “true market assessment” is from the ETF traders. That ETF claim is not just delusional; an eventual collapse of the ETFs will show that those ETF claims are overt fraud. If your ETF does not correlate with the underlying stocks or if the ETF does not give you a method for weighting the values of the components then you are at extreme risk that the ETF is either managed incompetently or fraudulently and you had better beware. We predict these popular derivatives will underlie a future financial crisis. They don’t allow you to plot most of them for their entire history because they drop continuously over time so they have to keep making 4:1 splits to keep them from going to zero value.

Last week we had a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. A Hindenburg Omen predicts a rising chance of a stock market crash because when a market has reached beyond its grasp. The major wealth market manipulators begin to reinforce one another to gain additional profits by signaling which sectors are hot and which sectors will soon be abandoned. When there are insufficient funds to float all the boats they informally signal which overextended sectors will be sunk. Consequently they polarize the market and crush the small investors who have no idea the market is manipulated. So the Hindenburg Omen is an indication that the market is contrived not necessarily illegally but in large part because of a type of group-think that evolves. Suddenly a particularly large group acts systematically and abandons some stock groups in favor of others.

The Hindenburg Omen is not predictable (or at least not in the past) because the manner in which they reach a consensus is not given in any text book. Jim Cramer is currently a primary agent in the creation of stock market group-think and he is the ultimate Hindenburg Omen. When Jim Cramer ever becomes bearish you know the stock market is up in flames.

The Hindenburg Omen is a complex set of conditions that all must be met for an occurrence to be valid:

The number of New York Stock Exchange 52-week highs and lows must both be greater than 2.5% of the total issues traded that day. This is market polarization into the haves and have-nots.

The smaller of the 52-week highs and lows must be greater than or equal to 79.

The NYSE's 10-week moving average must be rising. This is market extreme polarization of the market.

The McClellan Oscillator, a measure of market breadth based on exponential moving averages of advancing and declining stocks, must be negative saying the haves have peaked and the average is falling.

The number of 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52-week lows. Otherwise the market is not divided enough and money is still flowing into the market.

Bloomberg reported that Gold traders are the most bullish in two months since the retreat in equities from an almost five-year high and a weakening dollar spurred demand for bullion.

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

On June 9, Bloomberg ran a story with these headlines which we have talked about in the months ago. “

China

Export Growth Plummets Amid Fake-Shipment Crackdown.” Former Chinese Railway Minister, Liu Zhijun is on trial today on bribery charges in the case of graft that accompanied their “green” infrastructure spending.

Japan is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

FTSE 100 Index is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE+Interactive#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The German market is close to its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000. It still is down 50% from 2008.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI+Basic+Chart&t=my

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy

June 11

Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.2% down from 0.4% This would be good if it was due to high consumption but it is unfortunately due to a contraction in manufacturing/production.

Jun 12

MBA Mortgage Index 06/08 5.0% improved from -11.5%

Crude Inventories 06/08 2.523M improved from -6.267M -

Treasury Budget May -$138.7B worsened from -$124.6B
June 13

Initial Claims 06/08 334K down slightly from 345K +
Continuing Claims 06/01 2973K up slightly from 2952K -
Retail Sales May 0.6% up from 0.1% + but too much to be real
Retail Sales ex-auto May 0.3% up from -0.2% ++
Export Prices ex-ag. May -0.7% down again -0.5% +
Import Prices ex-oil May -0.3% down again -0.2% +
Business Inventories Apr 0.3% sharply higher from -0.1% -- signals a slowdown in manufacturing to cut inventories
Natural Gas Inventories 06/08 95 bcf lower 111 bcf -

The Markets June 13, 2013

The myth that the collapse of bonds will inflate the stock market is about to be shattered. Anyone getting into the stock market at these inflated values will take a hair cut soon.

This market appears to be both polarized and topping due to systemic churning to milk small investors. The market had dropped more than 15% before Jim Cramer said to get out of stocks when Obama was elected. You may recall that Jim Cramer was criticized by Obama supporters at that time and his “They’re nuts” comment is still part of the introduction to his show. At that time President Obama indicated his ignorance of financial matters and his poor selection of teleprompter advisors by claiming that PE is just a stock market index (not a significant financial valuation ratio).

Volume on the latest market advances is extremely low. We will know when it has topped if the market fails to top the previous high and we will know we are too late selling when Jim Cramer says to sell.

Note that according to Wikipedia, Japan has a national debt that is 214% of their GDP because they have been using QE since 1990. Greece only has a national debt 161% of their GDP. The USA is currently at 74% but Obama will have the USA debt over 200% by the time he leaves office if he does to stop QE3 and cut welfare programs to give poor Americans an incentive to work for minimum wage just as almost every middle class American and successful entrepreneur started and were grateful for the chance to be considered productive human beings.

The recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance or topping. That is a bearish sign!

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to 0% short term interest rates.

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=interest_rates_long

The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008. Again look at 5 years and you see the worst is yet to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 before the bear market ends.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

June 7...We possibly have three more years to go before this current great depression is lifted from the USA. It is the longest economic malaise since the one that started in 1929. FDR introduced socialist spending in 1932 when he was elected and dragged the depression out seven more years until 1939 when America began arming Europe against the Nazi. WWII put America back to work not Greek style socialism or Japanese style quantitative easing that has stagnated the Japanese economy for the last for 23 years. The great depression had a series of stock market crashes not just one. We could see another stock market crash at any time.

The dollar began to tumble on Thursday as the threat of inflation due to QE3++ and a perpetual Obama depression (the worst of both economic worlds) is slowly being put in place because the free world is being overrun by unemployables from oppressed nations about the world. For years the cities and states in the USA that offered the most welfare and free-bees like cell phone toys and electronic toys became the magnets for the lazy and the exploiters of American workers while seeking the gifts of the big government welfare state. Now the national borders have been opened and the flood gates of indigents and drunken drivers have come to the trough of the free world. Of course every indigent has a right to a phone and a great car. It is amazing that the latest statistics indicate that the Americans who are over 55 are the most qualified for today’s jobs and have the lowest unemployment rate. The liberals have destroyed the educational system and dummied down the entire free world while most of the oppressed world prays incessantly for “death to all freedoms.”

The National Security Agency has been collecting the telephone records of 121 million U.S. customers of Verizon under a top secret court order, according to a report in

Britain

's Guardian newspaper. The secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court order of April 25 is good until July 19. The order requires Verizon, one of the nation's largest telecommunications companies, on an "ongoing, daily basis" to give the NSA information on all telephone calls in its systems, both within the U.S. and between the U.S. and other countries. The newspaper said the document they obtained, shows for the first time that under the Obama administration the communication records of millions of U.S. citizens were being collected indiscriminately and in bulk, regardless of whether they were suspected of any wrongdoing other than criticizing the administration. However, could the administration also be sharing private business information with George Soros and other socialist supporters? On Tuesday MSNBC discussed the possibility that financial and stock market sensitive data are being shared with some before being made public. The problem may go beyond the invasion of privacy of Americans demigods in government.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2013/06/06/report-govt-scooping-up-verizon-phone-records.html?ESRC=eb.nl

Here is why the gap between the wealthy and the poor is increasing under Obamanomics and the gap between the employed and the unemployable is also increasing under Obamanomics. Bloomberg apparently agrees that Bernanke Quantitative Easing actually has caused money to leave less risky US corporate investments in research and production in search of higher growth outside the USA and higher stock market appreciation (not investment) in the USA. The alternatives offered in Asia up until now while higher risk offered a higher return on investment. In the

USA

the higher corporate profit has been achieved by cutting R&D and employment costs to the bone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/cash-outflows-turn-world-s-best-stocks-to-worst-southeast-asia.html

For example, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand led a rally in non-US corporation profits as QE spill over buoyed Asian economies sent corporate profits to records because the Fed’s debt buying spurred investors to seek higher-yielding assets. But now the threat of reduced Bernanke bond purchases by the U.S. sent stock markets in Asia from being the world’s best to among the worst. The Federal Reserve is sending foreign investors to the exit in anticipation that new growth will return to America even as the US stock market peaks. Yes, QE helped the US stock market but hurt US jobs because it torpedoed investment in stable low interest US corporation debt in favor of higher risk Asian debt returns.
For example: Impax Laboratories Inc said Wednesday that it cut about 10 percent of its workforce to boost profitability. This works well in long recessions where the lazy are the first to go and productivity multiplies with the fear factor so production increases and it stays up. Once a good work ethic is established the new hires bear the brunt of layoffs. That is how Bernanke’s quantitative easing destroys risk taking in the USA and encourages US cost cutting that destroys jobs, increases fear and improves the American work ethic among those with a job, but destroys the hope of the next generation. But Obamanomics makes the rich much richer because their wealth rises with the US stock market. That is why the gap between the wealthy and the poor is increasing under Obamanomics. Five years of Obamanomics has been a disastrous US recession. Getting rid of Bernanke QE will eventually be a boon to R&D and employment in the USA. The stock market may first crash but finally American employment and manufacturing growth will resume.

Bloomberg reported that forty-seven percent of Americans say they don’t believe Obama is honest compared with 40 percent who say he is being truthful, according to their National Poll of 1,002 adults conducted May 31 through June 3. The Attorney General's harassment, dirty tricks, and violation of other American Constitutional rights such as privacy has been undermining confidence in America’s government with simultaneous Fast and Furious gun running to impugn innocent gun owners, IRS harassment (based on names such as patriot, Christian, and constitution), and wire tapping of what had been an American free press. Holder and his agents need to remove themselves from office ASAP or they may drag down the administration. He is still in contempt of Congress. More and more democrats say Holder should leave. Even sources in the Whitehouse are leaking rumors he will. Today the WSJ differed with Bloomberg and said they did not trust the Obama Administration but think Obama himself might just not know what his government is doing.

Equity indexes in the three markets have declined more than 3.5 percent since May 22, when Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers could consider reducing stimulus if the U.S. labor market improves. International money managers pulled a combined $1.6 billion from the Southeast Asian countries in that period, the most since August 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Thailand

recorded the most withdrawals among the countries from May 22 through June 3, losing a net $769 million, according to stock exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg

Investors view computer screens at the Philippines Stock Exchange in Makati City in Manila. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index has dropped 9.6 percent since May 22. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

Monday stocks and the dollar declined in volatile trading after

U.S.

manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in May at the fastest pace in four years to the June 2009 level, showing that slowdowns in business and government spending are holding back the American economy.

Tesla Motors Inc., which has almost tripled in market value this year, is the latest stock market scam as great rumors abound and knowledgeable speculators unload the stock on the unwary. They claim it is efficient to burn hydrocarbons to make mechanical energy to convert to electricity, send it over the grid to charge batteries and then convert it back to mechanical energy in a car. They think that is more efficient than burning hydrocarbons in a normal car to directly generate mechanical energy and cut out all the middlemen and conversion wastes plus energy distribution waste. It is typical far left incompetence.

U.S.

oil stockpiles rose to the highest levels in more than 80 years.

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

U.K. construction returned to growth last month and retail sales increased.

Japan

is not a good investment for Americans because since beginning quantitative easing in 1990 they weaken their currency faster than they expanded their economy.