Tuesday, April 28, 2015

May 1, 2015 It appears the high speed traders are always manipulating stock and ETF prices. It seems even exchange traded funds are getting into it. Investors set stop losses and then the price swings momentarily when volume is low and the investor is stopped out with a 5% or 10% loss and the market is right back up for the next trade. The high speed trader then has made a risk-less instant profit. It should be illegal and the SEC should investigate this corruption of the free market. This also is done in an advancing market where it catches investors before they can move up their target price.





 

Read the Wall Street spin and you will think all of the news was positive today.   Yet it was all bad news.   Not only was Manufacturing down but so are orders.  ISM Index for the manufactures index for was flat in April at 51.5

It seems to have just passed the seasonal peak as did the Services index.


 

Total orders are at a low point.


 

Construction Spending for Mar was sharply lower at -0.6% worse than the decline of -0.1% last month.


May 01 10:00 Michigan Sentiment - Final Apr 95.9 flat at 95.9 down from over 110 a few years ago.


 

April 30   The trend lines for the DJIA, Russell 2000, and S and P all had trend line breakdowns today.   The DJIA, and the S and P have been flat lined since March 3.   Our proprietary DJIA, and the S and P cash flow indexes have been flat lined since approximately December 9 and the NYSE since last July.  That means technicians will warn that a technical sell signal may be coming soon.  It will likely be attributed to the summer leave in May adage.  People who believe in that adage could make it come true.  That then would give Jim Cramer a reason for waiting longer until the market is down 20% or more from the top before conceding we are in a recession and sell! Sell! Sell!  Things are falling into place.  The market high for this market cycle is likely now behind us.
        The profits of the oil energy sector have now begun plunging.  As we said last November, an oil price plunged prior to every major recession or depression and was a leading indicator for all world recessions and depressions during the last 100 years.  Now the world is slipping deeper and Europe and China are seeing the recession taking hold.  Exxon posted a 46% drop in first-quarter profit.   Shell reported earnings that fell by 56% from a year ago. ConocoPhillips reported a first-quarter loss of $0.18 a share.   The snake oil salesmen like Jim Cramer like to point out that those losses are better than they expected, no just spectacular and you should buy now and lose your pants as well as your shirt.  But some on Wall Street are beginning to see the truth so they will have to be shuffled off, retired, or even fired.  Only when everyone has lost their shorts will it be safe again for Jim Crammer to again say, “They’re Nuts” they got us into a recession!   It is 50-50 he says something like that by fall and a 90% chance he acknowledges the economy has tanked by January.                       The New York Times Company posted a $14 million net loss for the first quarter of 2015, a total revenue decrease of 1.6 percent, and a net profit loss of approximately 24%.
            Sony slashed its tiny full-year Smartphone sales forecast 14% to an infinitesimal 43 million phones.  Sony lost 126 billion yen for the year.
            Obama-Dodd-Frank liar loan mortgages are back in business.  Obama says it is OK for ineligible people get liar loans just as long as Goldman Sacks and others don’t use them to back derivatives to sell to retirees and small Norwegian fishing villages.  The Stupid Party will make sure the government bails out all the liars just as long as none of the liars are rich corporation executives.
Continuing Claims 04/18 now at 2253K up 1% even though Obama’s Stupid Party math says unemployment dropped.
Personal Income in March was flat lined.
Core prices in Mar rose 0.1%
            Republican candidates indicate they want to cut government salaries and pensions to balance state and federal budgets.  Government is a black hole that serves the public poorly but like the IRS it is highly adept at harassing citizens.
            The Employment Cost Index Q1 rose 0.7%.  Once again Obama’s Stupid Party economics don’t add up.  Obama predicts that due to his insightful leadership, the American job market shows signs of entering a new stage that will bolster households as state and city government departments fight to retain and attract workers by paying more and giving them full retirement pensions after five years.   Currently many state workers have to slave at a desk for ten years before they can retire.  And if reforms don’t happen soon Obama hints, wink -wink, more American cities will be on fire.   
            April 29  The Russell 2000 has tested and broken its trend line to the downside.  The other four indices we track are still testing theirs.
Today the bigger stock market movers seem to be conditioning investors to not flinch when volatility increases on the down side.   When they dump holdings they concentrate on certain stocks that the snake oil stock sales people focus their negative venom on.  Gradually we are conditioned not to react until it is too late.  Then they take advantage to burn the novices.  But at a critical technical point they reverse themselves and drive selected stocks in another sector up or even drive up some of the stocks novice investors sold too late and too low.  October 2014 was that type of month and the movers would like the novices to be conditioned to always expect a rebound and to stay in even when the -25% moves start. 
            Consumer Confidence in April plunged to 95.2 from 101.3 in March following the downward trend in consumer sentiment.
MBA Mortgage Index 04/25 fell (-2.3%) after previously growing at that same rate.
The GDP-Adv. Annual growth rate for the first quarter was only 0.2% down from the previous estimate of 2.2%
 The Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1 was a deflation rate of -0.1% a growing depression danger.
 Apr Pending Home Sales Mar fell to 1.1% from 3.1% claimed for March even though the weather improved substantially.
      The rate of economic growth in England during the first quarter plunged in half to 0.3% for an annual growth rate of 1.2%.  FED is investigating banks that put customer’s accounts at risk by loaning money on accounts that are already invested in stocks and bonds putting the banks in double jeopardy. 
     The fed must bite the bullet and raise the FED rate at least 0.05% and then incrementally grow the rate of increase so that the stock market collapse is not blamed on the FED.  The collapse will come because the stock market bubble must eventually burst and $Trillions of loan collateral will disappear resulting in a collapse of loan liquidity.   The fed must then put more actual dollars in circulation to prepare for credit defaults. 
      Today on page C5 the WSJ showed the DJUA back to Nov 2014 and it is close to giving a sell signal after bouncing down off the 65DMA on April 28.  Similarly they show topping of the DJTA.  This is the first time the WSJ has shown the deteriorating situation.
       Oil companies are beginning to now really feel the pinch of the slowdown.  Refineries will use the price spread to make up for declining sales but that will only make the decline worse for the producers.
     Cancer drug stocks may pay off only until their genetic engineering doesn’t accidentally causes a new mutant cancer or Ebola type disease.    They got the new idea from the Ebola virus which mutates the human cells and liquefies them.  They are using the idea to mutate and liquefy cancer cells.  But what happens if in the human body the drug mutates a normal virus, or a bacterium, or a blood cell that cause it to become cancerous or an Ebola type virus?  Money is flowing into someone’s pockets now but it will be many years and mistakes before these stocks make any money for true investors.  And when investors realize just how potentially dangerous this research is these stocks will hit a bottom.
 
April 28    The FED should just incrementally raise the FED rate and get it over with.  The market is going to react to it no matter what so just do it and everyone will realize the market was a bubble and the FED had nothing to do with the correction.  The market would then return close to its previous highs and the FED would then be off the hook as long as the FED waits a few months before raising the rates again.  The bubble is overblown and is dangerous until it corrects.  It is quite likely the stock market and the economy have been uncoupled for the over a year low.  Popping this US bubble is unlikely to have dire economic consequences for the USA.  However, China, Russia, and India may not be economically stable enough to face their massive waste of their economic resources during the past 10 years.  But still, the sooner the world gets through this economic cycle and begins the next the better the chance that the wasted resources do not lead to a depression.  For instance China has wasted so much on housing construction that China’s apartment builders could be out of work for five years causing a massive slowdown in expansion but opening an opportunity to become efficient and less polluting.  The burden of healthcare and sickness in China is enormous because they do not put a high enough value on human life.
     On an absolute bases the broadest indicator, the NYSE has been down since July 2014.   On a cash flow basis the DJI is flat since the end of November 2014 and the STD and Poors index is nearly flat.  On a cash flow basis the NASDAQ still has a slight upward slope.   But the Russell 2000 seems to have just peaked at its March 2014 accumulated cash flow high. 
     It appears the recovery of the Russell 2000 is responsible for the new 2000 bubble high set by the NASDAQ.  In that case the peaking of the Russell 2000 would mean that the NASDAQ cash flow has also peaked.   Historically when market cash stops its net inflow (as seems to be happening right now) the prices are near their peaks.  But it takes a few months for the classic sell signals to occur such as a descending bottom.  Therefore we hold to the our estimate that the topping of the US stock will become evident to investors before the end of summer and will be acknowledged by the stock snake oil salesmen (Jim Cramer) before winter. 
     Therefore if the FED waits too long to raise rates they will either be unfairly blamed for a stock market collapse and then conditions will likely make the rate increase impossible.  The mouse trap will snap and we will be caught in something like the Great Depression-Inflation-Hyperinflation scenario Germany and Zimbabwe have faced.   Germany then had WWII and 11% of their population was killed.   Zimbabwe slaughtered their white farmers, and still has no national currency and has to use currencies from other countries. 
     The FED knows it cannot push on a string.   To fight the next recession the FED needs an interest rate very soon that is high enough to have some leverage.
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Friday, April 24, 2015

Late April 24 We reported the news release that NASDAQ had achieved its previous record high during the Dot Com Bubble. We said that sounded like something we heard before. It is old news; NASDAQ did that in 2013 when the monthly average was already equal the highest month in the Clinton bubble. Now the Obama NASDAQ bubble is 25% higher than during the Clinton bubble. In 2000 the high quoted was a single close. Now in 2015 it has been about 25% higher for a full month, not just a sharp spike in prices. That means this Obama bubble is much worse than the Clinton bubble. Select the max time range to see the two bubbles consistently.


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Tuesday, April 21, 2015

April 24 The stock market inched up again today but Google, Amazon and Microsoft shot up even after all of them reporting poor profits. Microsoft’ revenue rose slightly from the same quarter last year but its Operating Income and net income both declined steadily for the last two years. But this is how stupid the ABC news was saying “Microsoft rose $4.41, or 10 percent, to $47.75. The software giant had results that beat expectations!”









http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/23/8484267/microsoft-earnings-report-q3-2015

       I seem to recall that a month or two ago they already claimed the NASDAQ had hit its Clintonesque 2000 bubble high and that was really nothing to brag about.  The drug-pharma business is the technology area that is probably most overpriced and they have no idea of the size of the Pandora’s Box they have opened.  It is a very clever idea to invent viruses that target and mutate the genetic structure of specific cancer cell DNAs but that may very well create many new Ebola type diseases that develop using a similar mechanism.  This would be a great time to sell out at this sector’s high prices before the environmentalists get word that the new process is far more dangerous to life on earth than crops that are genetically modified to be disease resistant.  It should be obvious that modifying cancer DNA is not inherently different from modifying human DNA and we may be in for a rash of deformed newborn babies like drug companies had with thalidomide babies only much much worse.   Perhaps two heads with four arms and four legs will occur 9 months after the mutated vector is stolen from a laboratory and spreads like the flue.  So this new technology probably is overvalued now by at least 1000%. 
       While the five indices have peaked on a price basis, on a cash flow basis four of the five have declined.  The NYSE cash flow peaked July of 2014 but its price has only flat-lined so far.  The snake oil stock sales force keeps supporting Obama claiming the economy is surging ahead and we keep showing you the real data plots that prove the “Stupid Party” policies are indeed stupid.
Yesterday they said how new home sales are up now.  Here though is the report.
New Home Sales Mar 481K down from 543K last month.  Yes they are up from last year but they are 60% below when Obama was elected.
         The BBC skipped the morning broadcast on Thursday and did not suggest the EU guarantee safe passage for radical Moslem immigrants today.  I hope they saw our comments on their stupid and irresponsible encouragement of the problem which wrote about the day before.  Radical Islam has been suggested by Moscow scientists to be a mental disease and Chechnya’s leader has ordered his people to shoot-to-kill Russians in uniform.       
April 23  Wednesday the five stock market indices we follow struggled once again to rise to former highs.  The Standard and Poors index had the best chance but it faltered at the end.  Time is running out and they say sell in May and then stay away for the entire summer.  38% of the available American work force is unemployed yet Obama and Clinton claim unemployment is down to what it was before the Obama-Dodd-Frank Liar Loan recession. New Home Sales have risen now to the levels they were 20 years ago.  The Obama/Clinton team thinks the economy is back to normal.  Yellen and Federal Reserve team think the Obama/Clinton team is nuts and they are struggling to give the Obama/Clinton economy life support.  The Obama/Clinton propaganda machine is run by MSNBC.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=819&genericContentID=97096&channelID=311


 If you listen to MSNBC and Obama everything is fine and dandy and back to normal.  If you listen to Hilary today she tells us that she just discovered that small businesses have been failing and that is why 60 million people are out of work even though only 5.5% of Americans are looking for work.  But the FED knows and you should know that our economy is worse than it was when we had the Clinton Dotcom bubble burst.  Here are some facts not what the “Stupid Party” is saying today.      The FHFA Housing Price Index Feb is up but the Home price index has flattened and is actually down at 2005 price levels.  The stupid party set that back ten years.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case
Existing Home Sales Mar were 5.19M but still lower than they were 15 years ago.



Housing starts still at recession levels


Crude Inventories 04/18 surge to 5.315M from 1.294M meaning the oil industry is still going lower.

April 22   Petrobras Oil of Brazil should be a case study for how the corrupt American “Stupid Party” Hilary Banana Republic would use government regulation of an industry to enrich themselves and fund their political campaigns.  Petrobras drills for oil and refines and sells it in a government monopoly.  Corruption and kickbacks are the biggest concerns in all socialist countries.  Even in China, government regulators for many years would disappear from public view so their corruption was not revealed.  The corruption in Brazil is so convoluted that a falling oil price means Petrobras loses less money because it can reduce the subsidy for consumers.   The lower public subsidy more than offsets the loss of income from the lower oil market price.  Of course their Brazilian President said she didn’t know that Petrobras corruption was what financed her charities, her parties, and her political campaigns.  And she never kept email or phone records because she has nothing to hide.  The investigators so far have found $3.7 billion stolen and redistributed to Stupid Party functionaries and dozens of their “Stupid Party” functionaries have  already been caught.  One promised to return $30 million if her misunderstanding could be forgiven.   The CEO of Petrobras, Maria das Gracas Foster said she knew nothing and she and five directors resigned. 
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/04/news/companies/brazil-petrobras-corruption/


       Tuesday the markets traded downward in a narrowing range between the previous highs and lower volatility bottoms.   A breakdown on high volatility is expected soon; in weeks not months.  But we expect the “Stupid Party” will be arguing that things are still getting better for three to seven more months.

        Russian and China stupid party officials have always been known to lubricate their economies with corruption.  Putin has almost 20 wealthy entrepreneurs who he periodically milks for funds.  Corruption has always been what lubricates the stupid socialist that buy 98% of their votes and pay and bus people to vote multiple times.  That is why the Obama/Clinton stupid party leaders refuse to clean up voter fraud by issuing photo ID cards.  They are willing to give illegal immigrants photo ID driver’s licenses to drive in America but they are unwilling to have photo ID’s for all people legally eligible to vote.  The corruption and fraud in padding of “stupid Party” votes and their corrupt milking of international sources is how Obama/Clinton and the Stupid Party have managed to turn America into a “Banana Republic” in just six years.  If the Stupid Party was not involved in voter fraud every eligible American would have a photo ID when they are 18 years old.  Get serious.  There is no reason for opposing the photo ID’s except for hiding current Stupid Party voter fraud, and Clinton and Obama know that.  And yes it makes a difference just as protecting American Embassies always makes a difference.

        The 2010 flash crash mystery when the Dow industrials sank by around 1,000 points before recovering fifteen minutes later has been solved.   Many lost money but some made windfall profits.   Tuesday the U.S. finally filed a criminal charge relating to it.  Obama was sure George Bush was somehow responsible but it apparently was a British trader, Nav Sarao who was charged.  He did it day-trading in futures contracts from his London home.   He made less than $900,000 that one day with very little risk or collateral but he caused more than 1Trillion dollars in criminal damages that day.  He continued on a smaller scale and made $9 million before he was caught almost five years later.  Think about how ETFs and stocks can be manipulated today.  People who use stop losses can be manipulated to go broke in what is now a mine field.  They take a 5% unexpected hit and just before they recover they take another and then another hit.  It is done with a thousand little cuts until small investors turn it over to wealth managers.

         Brokerage firm wealth management account executives and others are raking it in and their clients don’t realize that they have almost no chance of making even a 1% annual profit because they will stay in until it is too late to get out.   We are already being psychologically conditioned to ignore larger and larger corrections that are coming until it is already too late.  And it will be no consolation that everyone including the wealth management firms goes bankrupt.  But the wealth managers are raking it in right now with their commissions and will fold, disappear, and have nothing left but their fat wallets and private offshore bank accounts when many investors are flat broke.
        The average wealth fund manager does no better than an average investor does in an index fund.  So when the indexes are down 60% to 90% so will the average fully invested investor.  The average wealth fund will have to be down even more because they paid the managers a great salary based on how many investor accounts they captured.   Take a look and see how the clunky brokerage firms that now do wealth management have seen profits suddenly up over 20% each year.  That wealth is coming out of other people’s pockets.  And it is all possible because the “Stupid Party” has put the USA government about $17 Trillion in debt with loans and credit extended to the companies who contribute the most to the politician’s fund raisers and “charities.”   The more money Obama wastes the more broke and broken America becomes.  We now have the most corrupt government in American history and it is the stock markets not the average Americans that are taking in the wealth with Obama’s gift of money that was meant for future generations to invest.  It is not the fault of the senior citizens who saved.  It is the fault of the corrupt and incompetent Stupid Party and a stupid FED that don’t know how to do anything but waste other people’s money and to buy votes.  Another honest Ronald Reagan is what is needed and a competent Federal Reserve that has put America in the same QA straight jacket Japan adopted in 1980 when they thought QE would make them #1 economically in the world.  QE ended the Japanese economic boom and not it has ended America’s.  It is addictive and has serious withdrawal symptoms.

          April 21   Yesterday, the stock indices recovered less than half the ground the previously lost and it was on 25% lower volume showing a weak recovery.  The top resistance level has been unyielding but the Bottom resistance level has been rising and will force either a breakout or breakdown in about three weeks or less.  We are estimating another breakdown to at least the 200 day moving average.   That would be about a 15% drop.
          On Friday, using a cash flow basis, the indices we follow lost anywhere from one to three weeks of the previous cash that had flowed into the market.   There was even greater relative cash flow out of the Russian and Chinese stock markets.  Our prediction of some sort of manipulation in the China and Russian markets was right and China cracked down on margin accounts.  But there is also something else irregular going on with exchange traded funds that are not yet properly regulated.  They cannot possibly be properly regulated since the ETF problems are still unknown and will only be regulated after they are tested in a bear market and are identified.  No regulator is bright enough to know the problems until they jump out and hit them.  But then it is too late. 
 
        The collapse of the misguided Stupid Party Obama-Dodd-Frank Liar Loan derivatives that were associated with stupid ideas for expanding American home ownership was the unanticipated “Stupid Party” disaster that broke the banks in 2008.  That Stupid Party initiative has dropped home ownership to a 20 year low of 63.9%.  The homeownership hit its peak of 69.2 percent under George Bush in June of 2004 just before the “Stupid Party” began a FED policy of forcing banks and realtors to meet racial quotas of home sales.   The FED would run stings where a qualified minority member would apply but be rejected because the realtor or bank could not get documented proof of eligibility to make fixed rate mortgage payments.  The banks were forced to offer applicants adjustable rate mortgages because the applicants could not afford the payments on fixed rate mortgages.  The Stupid Party said the poor should have the same rights as the rich and could flip their house before the higher interest rate went into effect and make a big profit.  Unfortunately the poor did not flip the houses within three years and they defaulted and became squatters.  Much of Detroit’s and other city subsidized housing went under water and much of the American inner cities have since burned down during the Obama Administration… thanks to the “Stupid Party’s” best and brightest thinkers
         Just take the applicant’s word; they will flip the mortgages in time!  Many people lied and got houses and the banks then met their racial quotas.  Those loans corrupted the derivatives markets and broke the banks when all the liars went bankrupt.  Obama and Holder did their best to blame the bankers and the realtors but the fault was entirely due to the “Stupid Party.”  Thank you “Stupid Party” for the Liar Loan Obama-Dodd-Frank recession that you blamed on the Bush family.  Home ownership hit a 20yr low now of just 63.9% down from the Bush high of 69.2% but still Obama's stupid administration blames everything on Bush.












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Monday, April 20, 2015

The BBC is the cause of thousands of Moslems losing their lives drowning in the Mediterranean. The BBC falsely advertises the “wonderful Moslem life on EU welfare” that is available in Italy and Greece and secondly the BBC is destabilizing Africa, the Mideast, and Russia by giving the criminally insane the notoriety that they crave for and an incentive grow and carry out their terror to become famous. The more publicity the BBC gives dictators and the traffickers in human flesh the more terrorism and human trafficking, and human suffering is encouraged. The more positive publicity the BBC gives to the immigrant’s life of welfare in Europe the more people without common sense or skills risk drowning to be free but then complain about unemployment once they reach Europe. Their life in the EU that the BBC painted is a complete lie. The BBC shows very little about the immigrants begging, sleeping in alleys or kept in restricted (segregated) apartment areas because poor Moslem immigrants for the most part hate Christian Europe once they discover they have no skills or education to find a job. The hate is rapidly becoming mutual. Europeans can’t walk on some of their own streets at night any more. The second generation of the immigrants could possibly succeed in Europe but they are easily made to feel estranged and are easily radicalized.

     The Free World cannot solve Russia's "Putin problem" or the Moslem world's "terrorist problem".  We in the free world only solved our problems when we all took up arms ourselves, formed local armed units and then drove our oppressors out ourselves.      
      The pompous BBC shows nothing of the mayhem the BBC has caused and then the BBC has the audacity to say the European people have the responsibility not just to provide free welfare for Moslems in Europe but to pay for their safety while the Moslems illegally cross the Mediterranean.   But it is the BBC that is promoting the African and Mideast Islamic terrorism and the BBC should reimburse the victims of the BBC’s false advertising and the glorification of terrorists and the traffickers in human flesh.   The publicity of showing the evil of ISIS and human traffickers is what the evil radicals seek.  The evil of the world craves the notoriety the BBC gives them and the more the BBC destabilizes the world the more people watch the BBC because it is the shocking news that attracts crowds.  The criminally insane of Russia, Syria, Libya, and Iran are the main beneficiaries off the BBC news.   
     Conversely the BBC presents the leaders of the Free World as not only stupid, but today the BBC was attacking the entire EU population as uncaring but obligated to give the illegal Moslem immigrants free and safe passage.   Think of how stupid that BBC proposal is!  All the destitute of Moslem North Africa would migrate to Europe if the EU pays for their safe transportation!  The EU is now blamed by the BBC for the misery that the BBC actually causes with the publicity the Islamic terrorists love of death and the false dreams the BBC paints of a life on welfare in Europe.  The Free World can no longer afford the BBC.  The BBC thinks they are the only light in a dark world but they are in fact the kind of light that attracts moths to their death.  The BBC should reimburse the EU for the damages and cost of the BBC’s false promotions to insane radicals and destitute Moslems of North Africa.
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Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Late April 17 On a cash flow basis, on Friday, the indices we follow lost anywhere from one to three weeks of previous cash in flow. There was even greater relative cash flow out of the Russian and Chinese stock markets.


     The American leading indicators are drifting lower again.
 
       Bloomberg suffered an unprecedented global computer outage on Friday, disrupting trading around their world and frustrating investors just when they most needed to take action.  Stocks slid, completing the worst week of the year, with German stocks hit hard as concern grows over Greece’s negotiations with creditors.  Putin’s gift of a missile defense system this week has destroyed any leverage Obama once had with Iran and it is anticipated Putin has quietly undermined the EU with regard to Greece.
        China’s government acted with alarm to its first uncontrollable stock market bubble.  They know the bid up wealth has been used as collateral, and when the buyers stop buying anything built up on top of the bubble will be wiped out.  So China’s government may actually short the stock market and then shut it down and fleece all the speculators as a lesson to be learned the hard way.   That kind of thing happens every time Obama announces a new investigation to fleece the US banks and stimulate campaign contributions here and abroad.  That is why China, Saudis and others curry favor with the stupid party.  They not only love stupid politicians because they are clueless negotiators, but it allows them to show the world that some Americans are just as corrupt and abusive as they are.
 
Early April 17    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 1.8 percent to 403.6 at 4:32 p.m. in London, the biggest decline since January. All 19 industry groups slid. Germany’s DAX Index slid 5.6 percent for the period, the worst drop since 2011. Greece’s ASE Index sank 3 percent, pushing the gauge to the worst weekly performance among western-European markets.
        European stocks fell for a second day after reaching a fresh peak Wednesday, taking weekly losses to 2.3 percent. The Stoxx 600’s still up 18 percent this year, trading near the highest level relative to projected profits of its members in at least a decade.
       There were a few stock market head fakes but no market scores Thursday.   The major American markets again tested but failed to break out and even fell slightly.  Friday could be Black Friday or perhaps it will sink in by Monday after another Friday head fake rally.  We are at the historic highs and Mad Money has all the weak corporations hiding debts, losses, and declining revenues by playing games with their books.  But the government regulators now live in fear that the hundreds of $billions in repo market credit are only backed by the full faith, credit, and honesty of a junior varsity of untested traders.
       The major markets in Europe finished with large losses Thursday amid renewed concerns that Greece could default on its debts or worse yet perhaps rent harbor space to Russian destroyers in order to make their payments.  Putin is still considering selling older nuclear weapons to their Mid East ally Iran.  Obama let Iran invade Iraq to fight ISIS and now Iran won’t leave.  Half of Iraqis are Shiite Moslems and Iran wants to annex them now.
   The five American markets we follow were all down and four of them were on higher than average volume.  Again the market lost steam as it approached old highs and then sunk back from the previous day’s close.
        Sluggish housing starts have shaken builders’ confidence.
 
     April 16   Larry Fink today said that people who are investing with anticipating starting to use the funds within less than 20 years should be out of the stock market now because it could be 20 years to break even.  He said the big pension funds are now only 10% in stocks and 90% in bonds.  Under normal times they would be 50-50 in a balanced pension funds but it could be 20 years before the stock market sees the level it is at today.  After all it was 14 years ago that that the stock market was as high as it is now.   Once again highs were touched on Wednesday but there were no index price breakouts.  On a more accurate cash flow basis, all five of the five indices we follow appear to be topping out.
       George Bush got us out of the recession that followed Clinton’s yr 2000 Dot Com bubble without Quantitative Easing.  So far QE and everything else the Obama-Hillary Stupid Party has done has incentivized social decay.   And with no credible Stupid Party policies, we have criminal immigration at home and criminal Islamic and Putin Russian terror abroad destabilizing the world.  QE continues to drag the economy and infrastructure towards a breakdown and the precipice of another Great Depression.  We have the precipice of another stock market catastrophe in front of us ready to implode most of the wealth of the world.   And we have the precipice of a QE meltdown that could follow the depression with 1920’s type German hyperinflation that triggered the rise of genocide and the last World War.
       The stupid socialist’s parties of Stalin and Hitler took control in the 1930’s and they both exterminated their sick and poor under classes.  Everyone knows Hitler did it but few know that Stalin also starved to death his 10 Million impoverished peasants and his 5 million small farmers (Kulaks).   Everyone knows that on the “Night of the knives” Hitler had the stupid people of his underclass worker party (Brown Shirts) that originally gave him his power… murdered.  If the Stupid Party socialists get control of the world again they will also exterminate their underclass and cater to the wealthy just as the National and International socialists did.  Today the Stupid Party already uses its power to harass grass roots opponents and to reward the wealthy who contribute to their political action committees and charities.  http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/triumph/tr-roehm.htm
        The growing poor American underclass and the poor immigrants who refuse to learn English do not realized that they could be used by the Stupid Party.  Eventually Germany and Russia were ruled by “Executive Orders.”  The legislature was a rubber stamp, and the courts were appointed puppets of the worshiped leaders.   But when the German socialists got their 98% majority vote that Obama said would be a good thing for him, that is when they began to murder and expropriate the wealth of the top 2% and followed that by quietly killing all the stupid, sick and weak of the underclass that originally brought them to power.   The Jewish population dominated the Banking industry and was in the richest 2% when Hitler took power.  In spite of their extraordinary wealth, the socialists targeted them and directed hatred toward them and made them scapegoats.  Obama has frequently targeted the richest 2% in America and now they already support the Stupid Party.  The richest 2% think they can control the socialists with their money.  It took the “Stupid Nazis Party” less than ten years to take control and expropriate all the wealth of the richest 2% in Germany.
       NBC’s Cramer is once again badgering CEO’s and uses a wall of shame to incentivize corporations to use creative accounting to hide weakening earnings.  The Dollar strength is climbing again and that is making the US less competitive here and abroad. http://www.wsj.com/articles/pressure-in-repo-market-spreads-1428013415
MBA Mortgage Index 04/11sharply lower at -2.3% 
Empire Manufacturing Apr -1.2 a sharp fall in business activity from last month.
Industrial Production Mar -0.6% sharply lower
Capacity Utilization Mar 78.4% still falling
      April 15   China’s economy started the year on a downbeat note with its slowest quarterly growth rate in six years and weakness in key sectors which suggests the world's second-largest economy was still losing momentum.
       April 14   On Tuesday the market failed to break out again.  Emerging Markets, Small and Mid Caps, Semiconductors, Technology, and China stocks turned weaker while some US stocks rose slightly.  However no buy signals were given.   In fact within one or two weeks the Nasdaq, Russell, Standard and Poors, DJIA and NYSE indices all could have neckline breakdown sell signals with just slightly pessimistic news activity.  The NASDAQ still is lower than it was on March 3 of 2014.  Yet all of the indices are at their past bubble popping highs.
      IPO prices are 'completely nonsensical because the world is flooded with credit not cash.  Oil-rich nations are selling off their petrodollar assets at record pace trying to raise cash and anticipating a collapse in real estate transactions.
      Interest rates on national debt are plummeting and bank interest rates are starting to go negative.  Later this year we could be looking at a potential run on bank savings accounts because banks pay too little to offset the risk of a collapse of the world banking systems.   Why risk losing the money left at a bank that could go bankrupt?  We do most transactions with credit cards not cash and we do it transferring electrons (representing cash) across networks not real cash.   It came out just last week that it was USA FBI agents who electronically stole the BitCoin funds last year.   If some bank reserves vanished for a period of time and all you had was your cash held in your house, could your family live on it for a week?  What if the computer system breakdown lasted a whole month or several months?
      The Chinese economy is sputtering, so why did China's stocks soar this past week? The country's trade surplus slipped from 40.3 billion to 18.16 billion Yuan. Exports plunged nearly 15 percent year-on-year, and imports fell 12.3 percent.  The Communists apparently cracked down on gambling and the corruption cash outflows.   Recently it all flowed into domestic stocks which created an enormous bubble.    More bad news is expected Wednesday, when the government is scheduled to release data on China’s gross domestic product for the first quarter. Industrial production was "particularly weak" said Paribas’ Chief Economist Richard Iley. Bloomberg Industries analyst Kenneth Hoffman added, "China's metals demand is plummeting," "and it's a lot worse than you think."
 
Pension funds are prepared now for an expected stock market meltdown.  For the first time in more than a decade, they hold more bonds than in stocks.
 
Consumer prices decline as Obama deflation/depression sets in.
Business sales and inventories are slow under the Stupid Party.
 
Russia lifts its ban on weapons for Iran giving them a missile defense system that can knock down American or Israeli missiles as well as aircraft as the incompetent Stupid Party still can’t get its act together and another Obama deal falls apart.   Now Israel would not be able to defend itself.
 
The stupid party has a presidential candidate now.  It is the same person who abandoned the American Consulate in Libya allowing four Americans to be killed by Islamic Terrorists and then she blamed an American Jew for her incompetence because the American film maker dared to make a film on Islam.   The film maker simply showed that the Prophet took a bride of nine years of age.  That is not an insult to Islamists only the film maker being Jewish is an insult to them.  To this day men in Islamic nations and ISIS territory can take brides as young as nine years because the prophet did it.   No it was Hilary’s incompetence for not protecting any US embassy on the anniversary of the 911 attacks on the World Trade Towers.  On the next anniversary of 911, every embassy was in lockdown in a Stupid Party opposite extreme.
 
By Tuesday evening I checked, and this site was then working correctly.  Earlier it had appeared sabotaged.  I ran into another administration negative site last week that appeared to try to launch a virus attack.   One button cut off an attack and then I did a security scan and the attack was thwarted.  The politics of the Stupid Party is becoming more dangerous for freedom of speech as well as for religion.  The IRS attack on Historical Societies, the Tea Party and other "dangerous" thinkers in 2012 showed Americans the repulsive practices of the Stupid Party. http://video.foxnews.com/v/4168832065001/judge-jeanine-hillary-clinton-is-only-out-for-herself/?intcmp=obnetwork#sp=show-clips
 
April 13  The Nasdaq, Russell, Standard and Poors, and NYSE indices all ended at and tested their highs and failed on their first attempt to break out.  The NYSE has gone nowhere since July 3, 2014. The DJIA has gone nowhere since Dec 8, 2014.  Standard and Poors has gone nowhere since Feb 27, the Nasdaq and Russell have been topped out since March 3.   It is possible
 
While the DJIA ended above its 18000 level it was still more than 1% below its high.  Monday will be a critical test and if there is no breakout virtually every American index will likely have seen its high for this year.  There is still so much money chasing investments and this will be a major test of the NYSE sell signal last year that has been the NYSE limit since July 2014.  If this test does not result in a breakout buy signal, then we expect a major breakdown of the other indices starting very soon.  Caution is advised.
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Saturday, April 11, 2015

On Friday the DJIA was the only exchange that looked like they reported the correct volume of trades. Most exchanges reported low volumes off by a factor of six. When things get that bad you begin to wonder if the stock market is just a rigged show where investors are teased to buy stocks and the thieves behind the curtain manipulate the prices to maximize the fleecing of the public. The New York Stock Exchange volume was recently half of what it was reported in 2009. But now several exchanges reported even much lower volumes. On Friday it must have been a mistake because NYSE was about 9% of 2009 daily volume. The NYSE, Nasdaq, Russell, SandP were the exchanges affected. The data was still bogus April 14. Even the sources are bogus. How can anyone believe this stock market is real when we alone are still the only ones to notice so much trading data was bogus on April 10?

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Saturday, April 4, 2015

April 10 close, 2015 The Nasdaq, Russell, Standard and Poors, and NYSE indices all ended Friday testing their highs. While the DJIA ended above its 18000 level it was still more than 1% below its high. Monday will be a critical test and if there is no breakout virtually every American index will likely have seen its high for this year. There is still so much money chasing investments and this will be a major test of the NYSE sell signal last year that has been the NYSE limit since July 2014. If this test does not result in a breakout buy signal, then we expect a major breakdown of the other indices starting very soon. Caution is advised.

       Nikkei tops 20,000 for first time in 15 years, and Europe hits the 15-year high.  Now the major international stock markets have joined the US stock markets at their dotcom bubble levels teetering on the edge of a worldwide stock market crash and a potential “Stupid Party” led economic depression.  Obama and Yellen’s Quantitative Easing made the rich richer and apparently the EU and China are now using it to make their rich richer too.  Both the EU and China stock markets have shot up in recent weeks to their nose bleed high Dotcom bubble levels where the US markets recently hit their ceilings.  The reason that happens is because QE devalues the currency, drops imports, and boosts the exports of the country.   It floods the country with cash which the banks lend to the corporations which then reward the executives and investors with salary increases, bonuses, stock buy backs and higher dividends.   Bankers warn that about the coming crisis.
 
      The stupid party’s Obama Administration subsidizes and boosts the sales of Apple toys, and the new addictive candy like games by making them free to his electorate as handouts like the Romans who gave their masses welfare and the circus.   That buys community peace via ignorance and expands the “Stupid Party” voter list.  Apple products and social media expansion allows thousands of people who have nothing intelligent to say bombard millions of other people with their witticisms.  It is what the telephone was to teenagers fifty years ago.  Kids who go nowhere use the Apple products to keep themselves amused and ignorant of their potential to be productive members of society.  And when one gets lucky they will buy an apple watch and new rags to brag and pretend they are successful.  And so it is that the “Stupid Party” runs a political circus where the rich get richer and the poor get dumber and yet remain happy to vote for the “Stupid Party” agenda.   Meanwhile the working middle class in America is shrinking.
       Apple Corporation is lobbing their mind numbing products at children, who then whine and plead for whatever game or stimulating product they see cross their LED screens.  Do Apple products make adults stupid and children ignorant or is it just that stupid adults and ignorant children are attracted to them and become addicted to them?   The Walmart executives got stupid the moment before they joined forces with the Apple execs. 
      ISM Services industry index for March fell to 56.5 from 56.9 showing the US services industry is now slowing.
      JOLTS - Job Openings in Feb stand at 5,133,000 jobs which exceed the skills or intelligence levels of the growing American population of adults hypnotized by, or addicted to useless Apple and other toys the way little children are.
     Consumer Credit Feb $15.5B jumped up 50% from last month in an ominous sigh something is wrong because the American economy is still slowing down.
       Industrials dropped as Alcoa the biggest U.S. aluminum producer forecast a global supply glut for aluminum in 2015 due to the downturn in manufacturing.   U.S. stocks fell as investors weighed the outlook for all US corporate earnings, and retailers slumped amid a weaker-than-forecast outlook for consumer spending.  Americans are beginning to hunker down as the world’s leadership shifts away from basic western freedoms.
      April 9, 2015   Small investors are now heavily invested in the new investment vehicles called ETFs and could be at risk of losing everything.  We have pointed out before that the exchange traded funds are not sufficiently monitored and could in some cases even be rip-off Ponzi schemes.  On April 8, 2015, ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 (XPP) was up 3.65%.   Now look at these two ETF’s for China that appear manipulated.  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X ETF (YINN) was up 18.5% and the equal and the opposite trade of Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X ETF (YANG) was down a whopping 18.6%, both moved at close to 6X not the 3X as advertized.   If you look back you will find very few regular ETFs and no leveraged ETFs that underwent the collapsing 2008 stock market.  This apparent 200% error yesterday occurred when nothing really happened in China’s stock market.  It could be an indication of potential financial crime or incompetence in the management of ETFs and possibly a very high risk for small investors who are heavily invested in these new investment vehicles.  If an ETF can move 18% when nothing happened in China, one might say the China indexed ETF is being manipulated in the USA.
          If you look at the initial unemployment claims you could say they are at historical lows and that would sound encouraging.  But you could also point out that it is because our work force has been devalued by Obama because he rewards companies that fire full time employees and hire more part time employees.  But much worse, if you look at the following plot, each time we have reached these levels labor costs rose, earnings dropped and we went into a recession.  Indeed Wall Mart and other cut-throat companies have raised wages above the minimum now.  And historically when they reach these levels of layoffs you can see things got very bad very fast.
http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm
        The Economist reported “figures for manufacturing output, durable-goods orders, housing starts and retail sales have all been weaker than expected. The consensus forecast for annual growth rate in the first quarter is now only 1.4% (the annualized rate). But a nimbler model created by the Atlanta Federal Reserve points to just 0.2% annualized rate —barely any growth at all.”  Also, they show a remarkable relationship between corporate profits and the stock market.
The Euro continues to weaken versus the US Dollar taking business away from America but helping our friends in Europe who are on the verge of a “Great Depression.”
April 8, 2015  The DJI and the Standard and Poors indices appear to be getting ready to join the broadest indicator, the NYSE in showing the stock market has topped out.  The highly speculative NASDAQ looks ready to plunge.  The Russell 2000 seems like its stocks have been manipulated of late.   MSNBC/Pravda snake oil salesman, Jim Cramer, has been extremely nervous and agitated of date.   It is now highly probable that the market top has been put in already.   We originally predicted the market would be down 20% to 30% by October and then Jim Crammer would say Sell!SeLL!!SELL!!!!  But that may have been our optimism showing.  Jim could throw in the towel sooner or have a nervous breakdown the way he is lately reacting to the market.
      April 7   U.S. job openings Jolts surged 2.4% to a 14-year high in February, a sign that either wage offerings are too low or qualifications cannot be met.   A 5.13 million level of unfilled jobs posted is an indication of either extraordinarily sloppy Obama government record keeping or evidence of the greatest failure of the American educational system in history.
      April 6   Stupid party economic principles and hindsight were used by Cramer to explain why stocks on Wall Street rose today after a disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday.  They imagine it will likely postpone the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase in nearly a decade because the FED would never do that until the stock market is already crashing, otherwise the FED would get blamed.  Therefore the early wisdom on the street today was buy-buy-buy right up to the moment the market collapses.  Not very good advice but typical of the snake oil stock salesmen.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/06/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0MX0ZE20150406
       The more selective stock indices will be the last to fall when the next stock market meltdown occurs.   The broad market NYSE index has flat lined already the DJI may be in the process of peaking right now, but it will be a few more months to go before the growth and technology stocks fall.  In 2007 our indicators gave about a year warning.  The warning in Oct 2014 is likely to be more optimistic than pessimistic.  But selling at these highs and later buying part way down in the next major market correction we hope will still be profitable.  One wants to still have cash at these highs to invest on the future declines.   Those who do not take profits could end up with losses.   But one must not be drawn into a volatile situation because that is when the market makers devour investor cash with the volatility.  We would be happy to be 90% invested at a price level 60% below these current price levels given a more serious Obama recession this year.   The market could drop 90% in an Obama depression but that would be the extreme case.   When the market drops it will then bounce high and be very volatile.  There is no sure thing especially now that Cramer and everyone on Wall Street thinks this market is a sure thing. 
       It is depressing to think that with the Obama agreement Iran would likely have a nuclear weapon in ten years almost assuring a nuclear war in the Mid East. 
     
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