April 10 close, 2015 The Nasdaq, Russell, Standard and Poors, and NYSE indices all ended Friday testing their highs. While the DJIA ended above its 18000 level it was still more than 1% below its high. Monday will be a critical test and if there is no breakout virtually every American index will likely have seen its high for this year. There is still so much money chasing investments and this will be a major test of the NYSE sell signal last year that has been the NYSE limit since July 2014. If this test does not result in a breakout buy signal, then we expect a major breakdown of the other indices starting very soon. Caution is advised.

       Nikkei tops 20,000 for first time in 15 years, and Europe hits the 15-year high.  Now the major international stock markets have joined the US stock markets at their dotcom bubble levels teetering on the edge of a worldwide stock market crash and a potential “Stupid Party” led economic depression.  Obama and Yellen’s Quantitative Easing made the rich richer and apparently the EU and China are now using it to make their rich richer too.  Both the EU and China stock markets have shot up in recent weeks to their nose bleed high Dotcom bubble levels where the US markets recently hit their ceilings.  The reason that happens is because QE devalues the currency, drops imports, and boosts the exports of the country.   It floods the country with cash which the banks lend to the corporations which then reward the executives and investors with salary increases, bonuses, stock buy backs and higher dividends.   Bankers warn that about the coming crisis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/fed-digs-into-clearinghouse-risks-after-jpmorgan-raises-alarms

 

      The stupid party’s Obama Administration subsidizes and boosts the sales of Apple toys, and the new addictive candy like games by making them free to his electorate as handouts like the Romans who gave their masses welfare and the circus.   That buys community peace via ignorance and expands the “Stupid Party” voter list.  Apple products and social media expansion allows thousands of people who have nothing intelligent to say bombard millions of other people with their witticisms.  It is what the telephone was to teenagers fifty years ago.  Kids who go nowhere use the Apple products to keep themselves amused and ignorant of their potential to be productive members of society.  And when one gets lucky they will buy an apple watch and new rags to brag and pretend they are successful.  And so it is that the “Stupid Party” runs a political circus where the rich get richer and the poor get dumber and yet remain happy to vote for the “Stupid Party” agenda.   Meanwhile the working middle class in America is shrinking.

       Apple Corporation is lobbing their mind numbing products at children, who then whine and plead for whatever game or stimulating product they see cross their LED screens.  Do Apple products make adults stupid and children ignorant or is it just that stupid adults and ignorant children are attracted to them and become addicted to them?   The Walmart executives got stupid the moment before they joined forces with the Apple execs. 

      ISM Services industry index for March fell to 56.5 from 56.9 showing the US services industry is now slowing.

      JOLTS - Job Openings in Feb stand at 5,133,000 jobs which exceed the skills or intelligence levels of the growing American population of adults hypnotized by, or addicted to useless Apple and other toys the way little children are.

     Consumer Credit Feb $15.5B jumped up 50% from last month in an ominous sigh something is wrong because the American economy is still slowing down.

       Industrials dropped as Alcoa the biggest U.S. aluminum producer forecast a global supply glut for aluminum in 2015 due to the downturn in manufacturing.   U.S. stocks fell as investors weighed the outlook for all US corporate earnings, and retailers slumped amid a weaker-than-forecast outlook for consumer spending.  Americans are beginning to hunker down as the world’s leadership shifts away from basic western freedoms.

      April 9, 2015   Small investors are now heavily invested in the new investment vehicles called ETFs and could be at risk of losing everything.  We have pointed out before that the exchange traded funds are not sufficiently monitored and could in some cases even be rip-off Ponzi schemes.  On April 8, 2015, ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 (XPP) was up 3.65%.   Now look at these two ETF’s for China that appear manipulated.  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X ETF (YINN) was up 18.5% and the equal and the opposite trade of Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X ETF (YANG) was down a whopping 18.6%, both moved at close to 6X not the 3X as advertized.   If you look back you will find very few regular ETFs and no leveraged ETFs that underwent the collapsing 2008 stock market.  This apparent 200% error yesterday occurred when nothing really happened in China’s stock market.  It could be an indication of potential financial crime or incompetence in the management of ETFs and possibly a very high risk for small investors who are heavily invested in these new investment vehicles.  If an ETF can move 18% when nothing happened in China, one might say the China indexed ETF is being manipulated in the USA.

          If you look at the initial unemployment claims you could say they are at historical lows and that would sound encouraging.  But you could also point out that it is because our work force has been devalued by Obama because he rewards companies that fire full time employees and hire more part time employees.  But much worse, if you look at the following plot, each time we have reached these levels labor costs rose, earnings dropped and we went into a recession.  Indeed Wall Mart and other cut-throat companies have raised wages above the minimum now.  And historically when they reach these levels of layoffs you can see things got very bad very fast.

http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm

        The Economist reported “figures for manufacturing output, durable-goods orders, housing starts and retail sales have all been weaker than expected. The consensus forecast for annual growth rate in the first quarter is now only 1.4% (the annualized rate). But a nimbler model created by the Atlanta Federal Reserve points to just 0.2% annualized rate —barely any growth at all.”  Also, they show a remarkable relationship between corporate profits and the stock market.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21647632-trend-corporate-profits-america-worrying-hung-drawn-and#correction

The Euro continues to weaken versus the US Dollar taking business away from America but helping our friends in Europe who are on the verge of a “Great Depression.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR

April 8, 2015  The DJI and the Standard and Poors indices appear to be getting ready to join the broadest indicator, the NYSE in showing the stock market has topped out.  The highly speculative NASDAQ looks ready to plunge.  The Russell 2000 seems like its stocks have been manipulated of late.   MSNBC/Pravda snake oil salesman, Jim Cramer, has been extremely nervous and agitated of date.   It is now highly probable that the market top has been put in already.   We originally predicted the market would be down 20% to 30% by October and then Jim Crammer would say Sell!SeLL!!SELL!!!!  But that may have been our optimism showing.  Jim could throw in the towel sooner or have a nervous breakdown the way he is lately reacting to the market.

      April 7   U.S. job openings Jolts surged 2.4% to a 14-year high in February, a sign that either wage offerings are too low or qualifications cannot be met.   A 5.13 million level of unfilled jobs posted is an indication of either extraordinarily sloppy Obama government record keeping or evidence of the greatest failure of the American educational system in history.

      April 6   Stupid party economic principles and hindsight were used by Cramer to explain why stocks on Wall Street rose today after a disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday.  They imagine it will likely postpone the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase in nearly a decade because the FED would never do that until the stock market is already crashing, otherwise the FED would get blamed.  Therefore the early wisdom on the street today was buy-buy-buy right up to the moment the market collapses.  Not very good advice but typical of the snake oil stock salesmen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/06/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0MX0ZE20150406

       The more selective stock indices will be the last to fall when the next stock market meltdown occurs.   The broad market NYSE index has flat lined already the DJI may be in the process of peaking right now, but it will be a few more months to go before the growth and technology stocks fall.  In 2007 our indicators gave about a year warning.  The warning in Oct 2014 is likely to be more optimistic than pessimistic.  But selling at these highs and later buying part way down in the next major market correction we hope will still be profitable.  One wants to still have cash at these highs to invest on the future declines.   Those who do not take profits could end up with losses.   But one must not be drawn into a volatile situation because that is when the market makers devour investor cash with the volatility.  We would be happy to be 90% invested at a price level 60% below these current price levels given a more serious Obama recession this year.   The market could drop 90% in an Obama depression but that would be the extreme case.   When the market drops it will then bounce high and be very volatile.  There is no sure thing especially now that Cramer and everyone on Wall Street thinks this market is a sure thing. 

       It is depressing to think that with the Obama agreement Iran would likely have a nuclear weapon in ten years almost assuring a nuclear war in the Mid East.