Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to do and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone with a 50% haircut who owns US Treasuries in about 7 years. The USA needs to throw out the socialist Democrats who believe in spending beyond our means.
Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”
World markets
Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s government credit rating to junk bond status
European Banking Authority may ask German lenders to boost their capital level by more than $16 billion as the regulator reviews their ability to withstand losses from the sovereign-debt crisis.
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are said to be swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
This Week
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
GDP - Second Estimate Q3 2.0% dropped from 2.5%
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 2.5% unchanged from 2.5%
That means inflation adjusted GDP dropped from 0% to –0.5%
MBA Mortgage Index 11/19 -1.2% much improved from previous -10.0%
Initial Claims 11/19 393K up slightly from 388K
Continuing Claims 11/12 3691K up significantly from 3608K
Personal Income Oct 0.4% up from 0.1%
Personal Spending Oct 0.1% down sharply from 0.6%
PCE Prices - Core Oct 0.1% up slightly from 0.0%
Durable Orders Oct -0.7% down slightly from -0.6%
Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct 0.7% down sharply from 1.8%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov 64.1 down slightly from 64.2
Crude Inventories 11/19 -6.219M down sharply from -1.056M
Market outlook November 25, 2011
Stocks hover above recent lows. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
The recent bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
"Hank" Greenberg just sued the U.S. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
"Hank" Greenberg, the former chief executive of American International Group Inc, just sued the U.S. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on behalf of Starr International Co. and other AIG shareholders. The lawsuits accused the Treasury Department and New York Fed of wrongly taking control of the insurer and using it as a vehicle to funnel tens of billions of dollars to AIG's trading partners, which included large U.S. and European banks. That means the Democrat Obama Administration used US taxpayer money to illegally bail out EU banks.
MF Global shortfall of organized crime payoffs could top $1.2 Billion in missing cash from customer accounts at MF Global's brokerage unit, more than double the previous estimate for the democrat fraud..
U.S. District Judge Christopher C. Conner said Hussein Obama's plan to require individual Americans to obtain health insurance or pay a penalty (a key pillar of his health-care legislation), is unconstitutional. The 53-page opinion said that the federal government did not give it the authority to compel individual citizens to purchase products against their will. The lawsuit was filed by a married couple against Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, asking that the law be overturned. The couple said they dropped their health-care coverage because of the expense was more than their monthly mortgage payments.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. President Michael C. Woodford disclosed that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. That sounds like the same socialist MOB the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Yesterday
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
Today
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
This Week
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 221, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect a rally today. The bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were stable last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.8%, and Japan down -0.6%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.3% to 0.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
MF Global shortfall of organized crime payoffs could top $1.2 Billion in missing cash from customer accounts at MF Global's brokerage unit, more than double the previous estimate for the democrat fraud..
U.S. District Judge Christopher C. Conner said Hussein Obama's plan to require individual Americans to obtain health insurance or pay a penalty (a key pillar of his health-care legislation), is unconstitutional. The 53-page opinion said that the federal government did not give it the authority to compel individual citizens to purchase products against their will. The lawsuit was filed by a married couple against Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, asking that the law be overturned. The couple said they dropped their health-care coverage because of the expense was more than their monthly mortgage payments.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. President Michael C. Woodford disclosed that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. That sounds like the same socialist MOB the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Yesterday
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
Today
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
This Week
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 221, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect a rally today. The bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stock markets were stable last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.8%, and Japan down -0.6%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.3% to 0.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 8:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Republicans want to trim Federal government not give seniors a haircut. The first department to be eliminated would be the US Energy Starvation Dept
Republicans want to trim Federal government not give seniors a haircut. The first department to be eliminated would be the US Energy Starvation Department.
The Republican candidates suggested that three to five government agencies are run by morons and are keeping our economy mired. The Energy Department is the worst on the list because it has really become the US Energy Starvation Department.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. (7733) President Michael C. Woodford admitted that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. Sounds like the same socialist crowd the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices continue to fall and pop the real estate bubble.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Today
Nov 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct
This Week
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 21, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about:
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect today is an initial bear attack on the US markets possibly driving prices to this years lows again. Then we expect a bounce with the close down slightly for the day.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong down –1.4%, India down –2.6%, and Japan down -0.3%.
European markets are down big again today in a range –2% to –3.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are down about -1.4% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
The Republican candidates suggested that three to five government agencies are run by morons and are keeping our economy mired. The Energy Department is the worst on the list because it has really become the US Energy Starvation Department.
There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.
Former Olympus Corp. (7733) President Michael C. Woodford admitted that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. Sounds like the same socialist crowd the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.
Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files
William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.
World markets
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices continue to fall and pop the real estate bubble.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Today
Nov 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct
This Week
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2
Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19
Market outlook November 21, 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about:
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm
What we expect today is an initial bear attack on the US markets possibly driving prices to this years lows again. Then we expect a bounce with the close down slightly for the day.
The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction
Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment
We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong down –1.4%, India down –2.6%, and Japan down -0.3%.
European markets are down big again today in a range –2% to –3.8% half way through their day.
American market futures are down about -1.4% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Friday, November 18, 2011
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash
World markets
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed today, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices fall too sharply and pop the real estate bubble.
An Indian airline was hijacked by its crew, which collected about $16000 from the passengers claiming they ran out of gas half way to India. They face possible bankruptcy as unions demand more money and while they lose money. If they hike airline prices people will switch to better run airlines.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have real cash. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
Spain and Italy got some relief from the ECB buying debt. Most European markets are new support levels. Germany declined for 5 sessions.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week. Gold traders and doomsday survivalists selling gold are scamming many conservative investors. Some gold owners are getting scammed when they sell gold that they inherited. They are told the weight and copper content knocks the value down. That is a lie if you are buying USA minted coins. Those dealers are bald-faced liars who prey on people who inherit gold and do not understand how it is valued.
Past Week
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 -10.0% down from 10.3% very bad
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Crude Inventories 11/12 -1.056M drop again -1.370M good when inventories are lower
Yesterday
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Housing Starts Oct 628K down from 658K meaningless since it is not seasonally corrected and expected to decline in winter.
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Philadelphia Fed Nov 3.6 declined from 8.7 indicating a slow down…not good
Today
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 18 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
We should see downside resistance soon before the advance resumes. The resistance level is about 2% lower than yesterday but it could happen intra day within the week. But complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –1.9%, Hong Kong down –1.7%, India down –0.6%, and Japan up 1.2%.
European markets are down again today in a range –0.1% to –2 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 7:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed today, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices fall too sharply and pop the real estate bubble.
An Indian airline was hijacked by its crew, which collected about $16000 from the passengers claiming they ran out of gas half way to India. They face possible bankruptcy as unions demand more money and while they lose money. If they hike airline prices people will switch to better run airlines.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have real cash. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.
Spain and Italy got some relief from the ECB buying debt. Most European markets are new support levels. Germany declined for 5 sessions.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week. Gold traders and doomsday survivalists selling gold are scamming many conservative investors. Some gold owners are getting scammed when they sell gold that they inherited. They are told the weight and copper content knocks the value down. That is a lie if you are buying USA minted coins. Those dealers are bald-faced liars who prey on people who inherit gold and do not understand how it is valued.
Past Week
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 -10.0% down from 10.3% very bad
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Crude Inventories 11/12 -1.056M drop again -1.370M good when inventories are lower
Yesterday
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Housing Starts Oct 628K down from 658K meaningless since it is not seasonally corrected and expected to decline in winter.
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Philadelphia Fed Nov 3.6 declined from 8.7 indicating a slow down…not good
Today
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 18 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
We should see downside resistance soon before the advance resumes. The resistance level is about 2% lower than yesterday but it could happen intra day within the week. But complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –1.9%, Hong Kong down –1.7%, India down –0.6%, and Japan up 1.2%.
European markets are down again today in a range –0.1% to –2 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.4% at 7:00 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Edward DeMarco, the acting head of FHFA, said Freddie and Fannie executives were too incompetent to handle their work and spent $millions to get quali
Edward DeMarco, the acting head of FHFA, said Freddie and Fannie executives were too incompetent to handle their work and spent $millions to get qualified and experienced counsel in addition to each taking base salaries of $900,000 annually.
They stand to make as much as $6 million a year after receiving their deferred pay and bonuses which taxpayers are not supposed to know about until they get them so they don’t count yet. At least that is what they think. The executives’ compensation packages jumped 40% as soon as the Senator Barney Frank had the government take over the firms over in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two firms. Newt Gingrich was paid Newt $1.6 million for his advice. This further informs the public how stupid and corrupt the Obama administration is to hire and pay Newt and other politicians on the take. When asked at the debate what he did to earn a $300,000 payment in 2006, the former speaker said he “offered them advice on precisely what they didn’t do,” and warned the company that its lending practices were “insane.” Newt doesn't like to talk about the $100,000 he owes Tiffanies for jewelry he bought for someone he will not disclose.
Boone Pickens Wednesday on MSNBC said Obama people are the dumbest people who ever came to town and the Obama Energy director CHU is an idiot saying we will have the energy plan in place within 30 yrs. Canada will now just sell its cheap oil to Red China because Obama and his administration are so stupid.
World markets
China is expected to report tomorrow that housing prices in the cities have stalled since July. If this is a bubble pop then China could enter its first recession since it experimented with free enterprise.
An Indian airline was hijacked by its crew, which collected about $16000 from the passengers claiming they ran out of gas half way to India.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have real cash. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based paper. By trading worthless paper that way they do not have to recognize the true loss.
Spain sold 3.56 billion euros ($4.8 billion) of a new 10-year benchmark at an average yield of 6.975 %, the highest for Spain since the euro’s creation. French debt jumped about 0.4%.
Ten German government-owned Landesbank’s banks had their senior debt and deposit ratings cut by Moody’s because it said “there is now a lower likelihood” that the lenders would get government support.
European shares slid again into the red yesterday after the Bank of England raised the specter that Europe's debt crisis is spreading far outside the continent's periphery. They want a bail out from the smiling morons in the Obama administration.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week. Many conservative investors are being scammed by gold traders and doomsday survivalists.
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 -10.0% down from 10.3% very bad
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Crude Inventories 11/12 -1.056M drop again -1.370M good when inventories are lower
Today
Nov 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/12
Nov 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/05
Nov 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct
Nov 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct
Nov 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Nov
This Week
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 17 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
We could see a few percent decline here before the advance resumes. But complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for 6% increase volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down slightly last night. China down –0.2%, Hong Kong down –0.8%, India down –1.9%, and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are down again today in a range -1% to –2.3 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about –0.7% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
They stand to make as much as $6 million a year after receiving their deferred pay and bonuses which taxpayers are not supposed to know about until they get them so they don’t count yet. At least that is what they think. The executives’ compensation packages jumped 40% as soon as the Senator Barney Frank had the government take over the firms over in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two firms. Newt Gingrich was paid Newt $1.6 million for his advice. This further informs the public how stupid and corrupt the Obama administration is to hire and pay Newt and other politicians on the take. When asked at the debate what he did to earn a $300,000 payment in 2006, the former speaker said he “offered them advice on precisely what they didn’t do,” and warned the company that its lending practices were “insane.” Newt doesn't like to talk about the $100,000 he owes Tiffanies for jewelry he bought for someone he will not disclose.
Boone Pickens Wednesday on MSNBC said Obama people are the dumbest people who ever came to town and the Obama Energy director CHU is an idiot saying we will have the energy plan in place within 30 yrs. Canada will now just sell its cheap oil to Red China because Obama and his administration are so stupid.
World markets
China is expected to report tomorrow that housing prices in the cities have stalled since July. If this is a bubble pop then China could enter its first recession since it experimented with free enterprise.
An Indian airline was hijacked by its crew, which collected about $16000 from the passengers claiming they ran out of gas half way to India.
European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have real cash. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based paper. By trading worthless paper that way they do not have to recognize the true loss.
Spain sold 3.56 billion euros ($4.8 billion) of a new 10-year benchmark at an average yield of 6.975 %, the highest for Spain since the euro’s creation. French debt jumped about 0.4%.
Ten German government-owned Landesbank’s banks had their senior debt and deposit ratings cut by Moody’s because it said “there is now a lower likelihood” that the lenders would get government support.
European shares slid again into the red yesterday after the Bank of England raised the specter that Europe's debt crisis is spreading far outside the continent's periphery. They want a bail out from the smiling morons in the Obama administration.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week. Many conservative investors are being scammed by gold traders and doomsday survivalists.
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 11/12 -10.0% down from 10.3% very bad
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Crude Inventories 11/12 -1.056M drop again -1.370M good when inventories are lower
Today
Nov 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/12
Nov 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/05
Nov 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct
Nov 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct
Nov 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Nov
This Week
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 17 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
We could see a few percent decline here before the advance resumes. But complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for 6% increase volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down slightly last night. China down –0.2%, Hong Kong down –0.8%, India down –1.9%, and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are down again today in a range -1% to –2.3 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about –0.7% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Boone Pickens today on MSNBC said Obama people are the dumbest people who ever came to town and the Obama Energy director is an idiot saying we will h
Boone Pickens today on MSNBC said Obama people are the dumbest people who ever came to town and the Obama Energy director is an idiot saying we will have the energy plan in place within 30 yrs.
Boone Pitkins says Canada will sell it’s cheap oil to Red China because Obama and his administration are so stupid. We gave Obama a good opinion until his inauguration when Obama decided to do nothing and just blame others for his corrupt and stupid administration activities. Obama began his raids of corporations and his investigations this year to inform American free enterprise that they must buy Obama off or he will drive them into the ground like what used to be the fastest growing and best run bank in America, “Bank of America.” The money Obama is raising is an indication of the Obama Gestapo State corruption that uses government to intimidate corporations into funding the corrupt and moronic Obama administration.
We predict this will change rapidly next year when a Republican candidate is selected. The hatred of the Obama KGB will suddenly overwhelm the media. We predict 5% of the MSNBC staff ill be fired/reassigned before the 2012 elections. You can see the change has now occurred in the business Squawk Box show at 7AM. That is where they now discuss Obama objectively.
Newt Gingrich made consulting for mortgage company Freddie Mac and said he advised them against accepting mortgages that were given without ascertaining whether they could even be paid back. Obama supporters say the Obama administration paid Newt $1.6 million for the advice. This further informs the public ho stupid and corrupt the Obama administration is to hire and pay Newt for the advice at taxpayer expense so that it can now attempt to smear Newt. When asked at the debate what he did to earn a $300,000 payment in 2006, the former speaker said he “offered them advice on precisely what they didn’t do,” and warned the company that its lending practices were “insane.”
Gold and silver have peaked and volume of trading is fast falling. After reaching a high under Jimmy Carter gold fell 70% and silver fell over 84% and did not begin to recover for 29 years. Obama is a lot dumber than Jimmy was. See commodity prices:
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZG/C0
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SV_/C0
World markets
European shares slid into the red after the Bank of England raised the specter that Europe's debt crisis is spreading far outside the continent's periphery. The want a bail out from the smiling morons in the Obama administration.
EU finally makes a list of countries to be ejected from the 17-nation EURO bloc due to national immaturity and childlike socialist greed and selfishness. German and French politicians are already creating exit plans for the weakest members.
Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to saddle the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist unless the people on welfare come to realize they need to get a real life.
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Last week
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
Initial Claims 11/05 390K continues to decline: from 397K good news
Continuing Claims 10/29 3615K down again 3683K
Export Prices ex-ag. Oct -1.5% down is good from 0.3%
Import Prices ex-oil Oct -0.2% low import hurts USA 0.2%
Trade Balance Sep -$43.1B slight improvement from -$45.6B
Treasury Budget Oct -$98.5 deficit still way too high though down from -$140.4B
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov 64.2 60.up from 60.9 last month, great news
Yesterday
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Today
Nov 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/12
Nov 16 8:30 AM CPI Oct
Nov 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Oct
Nov 16 9:00 AM Net long-term TIC Flows Sept
Nov 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct
Nov 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct
Nov 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Nov
Nov 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/12
This Week
Nov 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/12
Nov 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/05
Nov 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct
Nov 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct
Nov 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Nov
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 16 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for 6% increase volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down –2.51%, Hong Kong down -2%, India down –0.6%, Taiwan down –1.4% and Japan down –0.9%.
European markets are mixed today in a range 0.3% to -1.9 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about –0.7% at 8 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week.
Boone Pitkins says Canada will sell it’s cheap oil to Red China because Obama and his administration are so stupid. We gave Obama a good opinion until his inauguration when Obama decided to do nothing and just blame others for his corrupt and stupid administration activities. Obama began his raids of corporations and his investigations this year to inform American free enterprise that they must buy Obama off or he will drive them into the ground like what used to be the fastest growing and best run bank in America, “Bank of America.” The money Obama is raising is an indication of the Obama Gestapo State corruption that uses government to intimidate corporations into funding the corrupt and moronic Obama administration.
We predict this will change rapidly next year when a Republican candidate is selected. The hatred of the Obama KGB will suddenly overwhelm the media. We predict 5% of the MSNBC staff ill be fired/reassigned before the 2012 elections. You can see the change has now occurred in the business Squawk Box show at 7AM. That is where they now discuss Obama objectively.
Newt Gingrich made consulting for mortgage company Freddie Mac and said he advised them against accepting mortgages that were given without ascertaining whether they could even be paid back. Obama supporters say the Obama administration paid Newt $1.6 million for the advice. This further informs the public ho stupid and corrupt the Obama administration is to hire and pay Newt for the advice at taxpayer expense so that it can now attempt to smear Newt. When asked at the debate what he did to earn a $300,000 payment in 2006, the former speaker said he “offered them advice on precisely what they didn’t do,” and warned the company that its lending practices were “insane.”
Gold and silver have peaked and volume of trading is fast falling. After reaching a high under Jimmy Carter gold fell 70% and silver fell over 84% and did not begin to recover for 29 years. Obama is a lot dumber than Jimmy was. See commodity prices:
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZG/C0
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SV_/C0
World markets
European shares slid into the red after the Bank of England raised the specter that Europe's debt crisis is spreading far outside the continent's periphery. The want a bail out from the smiling morons in the Obama administration.
EU finally makes a list of countries to be ejected from the 17-nation EURO bloc due to national immaturity and childlike socialist greed and selfishness. German and French politicians are already creating exit plans for the weakest members.
Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to saddle the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist unless the people on welfare come to realize they need to get a real life.
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Last week
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
Initial Claims 11/05 390K continues to decline: from 397K good news
Continuing Claims 10/29 3615K down again 3683K
Export Prices ex-ag. Oct -1.5% down is good from 0.3%
Import Prices ex-oil Oct -0.2% low import hurts USA 0.2%
Trade Balance Sep -$43.1B slight improvement from -$45.6B
Treasury Budget Oct -$98.5 deficit still way too high though down from -$140.4B
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov 64.2 60.up from 60.9 last month, great news
Yesterday
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
Today
Nov 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/12
Nov 16 8:30 AM CPI Oct
Nov 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Oct
Nov 16 9:00 AM Net long-term TIC Flows Sept
Nov 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct
Nov 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct
Nov 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Nov
Nov 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/12
This Week
Nov 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/12
Nov 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/05
Nov 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct
Nov 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct
Nov 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Nov
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct
Market Outlook November 16 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.
Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Demand from Asia should be sufficient for 6% increase volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down –2.51%, Hong Kong down -2%, India down –0.6%, Taiwan down –1.4% and Japan down –0.9%.
European markets are mixed today in a range 0.3% to -1.9 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about –0.7% at 8 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Obama will change the name of the Department of Energy to the Obama Department of American Poverty. Obama killed the much needed oil pipeline from Ca
Obama will change the name of the Department of Energy to the Obama Department of American Poverty. Obama killed the much needed oil pipeline from Canada and over 2000 jobs just raise US cost of energy again so that Solyndra doesn’t look like such a corrupt and stupid campaign funding scheme. Solyndra was buying Chinese solar panels and assembling them in America pretending that Solyndra was a high-tech manufacturer. The US Poverty level reached a record high of 16% this week under Obama. 20% of single men over 25 yr. old are living at home. There are more homeless people in America since the Socialists won with Obama.
Gold and silver have peaked and volume of trading is fast falling. After reaching a high under Jimmy Carter gold fell 70% and silver fell 84% and did not begin to recover for 29 years. Obama is a lot dumber than Jimmy was. See commodity prices:
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZG/C0
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SV_/C0
Holder, who is Obama’s Attorney General, and holds the highest legal position in America admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to create a national outcry against American gun owners and trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard died as a result of that Obama “personally approved” "fast and furious" gun running.
The global operators of supertankers, headed for their biggest weekly stock price gain since 1998 on signs of stronger demand to charter the worlds crude-oil carriers as anticipation grow that Obama’s lack of an intelligent energy policy will raise oil prices considerably in the coming winter months.
Obama’s & Warren Buffet’s U.S. wind turbine BS will “fall off a cliff” unless lawmakers extend tax credits supporting the market beyond 2012, said Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the biggest seller of Chinese made windmills. That is right, unless the American taxpayer pays for them nobody buys them because they do not even pay for themselves in the energy needed to produce them. Obama wastes more energy building windmills and solar panels than most will produce in their limited life. They fail in less than half the lifetime they produce and that maintenance/failure rate is how Obama environmentalist lies to fool the idiot socialist administration.
“The solar PV market has certainly reached a point where some illusions are meeting reality,” Wacker Chief Executive Officer Rudolf Staudigl told investors in an Oct. 28 conference call. “About the length of the downturn in polysilicon, I simply cannot answer.” said Robert Schramm- Fuchs and Shai Hill, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. Polysilicon has plunged 93 percent to $33 a kilogram from $475 three years ago as the industry cannot sell the panels even with Obama taxpayer subsidies and the taxpayer money spent on Solyndra and other companies is used to funnel money into the campaigns of socialists who now own over 90% of the US national news media.
GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama to raise campaign funds.
World markets
EU finally makes a list of countries to be ejected from the 17-nation EURO bloc due to national immaturity and childlike socialist greed and selfishness. German and French politicians are already creating exit plans for the weakest members.
The European Central Bank stepped in and bought Italy’s debt when Italy sold the $5B Euro debt today. That has not sunk in yet. When it sinks in, investors will panic and try to sell their Italian bonds to the ECB forcing the ECB to stop supporting Italy. When the ECB stops buying the Italian bonds the investors who bought in will get a 40% haircut. They are mostly retired people living on their “safe” government bond income! Obama economic ignorance and socialist ideas are setting the USA up for the same crisis the EU is having. If this contagion spreads Japan will fall, the USA will fall and China will lose all the currency it is hoarding and go bankrupt too. All the people owning gold will lose too because that is a depression not inflation. Cash could become king again.
Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to bag the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist unless the people on welfare come to realize they need to get a real life.
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
Yesterday
Initial Claims 11/05 390K continues to decline: from 397K good news
Continuing Claims 10/29 3615K down again 3683K
Export Prices ex-ag. Oct -1.5% down is good from 0.3%
Import Prices ex-oil Oct -0.2% low import hurts USA 0.2%
Trade Balance Sep -$43.1B slight improvement from -$45.6B
Treasury Budget Oct -$98.5 deficit still way too high though down from -$140.4B
This Week
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 11 2011
More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 3.7 percent. No one seems to worry about the fact that Japan has become the greatest per person debtor in the world and has got in that precarious situation by borrowing from its own people who could lose all his or her savings. The volume yesterday was relatively low indicating very little selling pressure but the market makers simply priced the market down 2% at the start where it stayed until about 1 PM and then drifted down about another 1.5%.
The high VIX shot up to 36 yesterday and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. However today it looks like the index may have stopped declining. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were up last night. China up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.9%, India down –1%, Taiwan up 0.8% and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.7% to 1.7 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.7% at 8 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not paper money. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week.
Gold and silver have peaked and volume of trading is fast falling. After reaching a high under Jimmy Carter gold fell 70% and silver fell 84% and did not begin to recover for 29 years. Obama is a lot dumber than Jimmy was. See commodity prices:
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZG/C0
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SV_/C0
Holder, who is Obama’s Attorney General, and holds the highest legal position in America admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to create a national outcry against American gun owners and trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard died as a result of that Obama “personally approved” "fast and furious" gun running.
The global operators of supertankers, headed for their biggest weekly stock price gain since 1998 on signs of stronger demand to charter the worlds crude-oil carriers as anticipation grow that Obama’s lack of an intelligent energy policy will raise oil prices considerably in the coming winter months.
Obama’s & Warren Buffet’s U.S. wind turbine BS will “fall off a cliff” unless lawmakers extend tax credits supporting the market beyond 2012, said Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the biggest seller of Chinese made windmills. That is right, unless the American taxpayer pays for them nobody buys them because they do not even pay for themselves in the energy needed to produce them. Obama wastes more energy building windmills and solar panels than most will produce in their limited life. They fail in less than half the lifetime they produce and that maintenance/failure rate is how Obama environmentalist lies to fool the idiot socialist administration.
“The solar PV market has certainly reached a point where some illusions are meeting reality,” Wacker Chief Executive Officer Rudolf Staudigl told investors in an Oct. 28 conference call. “About the length of the downturn in polysilicon, I simply cannot answer.” said Robert Schramm- Fuchs and Shai Hill, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. Polysilicon has plunged 93 percent to $33 a kilogram from $475 three years ago as the industry cannot sell the panels even with Obama taxpayer subsidies and the taxpayer money spent on Solyndra and other companies is used to funnel money into the campaigns of socialists who now own over 90% of the US national news media.
GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama to raise campaign funds.
World markets
EU finally makes a list of countries to be ejected from the 17-nation EURO bloc due to national immaturity and childlike socialist greed and selfishness. German and French politicians are already creating exit plans for the weakest members.
The European Central Bank stepped in and bought Italy’s debt when Italy sold the $5B Euro debt today. That has not sunk in yet. When it sinks in, investors will panic and try to sell their Italian bonds to the ECB forcing the ECB to stop supporting Italy. When the ECB stops buying the Italian bonds the investors who bought in will get a 40% haircut. They are mostly retired people living on their “safe” government bond income! Obama economic ignorance and socialist ideas are setting the USA up for the same crisis the EU is having. If this contagion spreads Japan will fall, the USA will fall and China will lose all the currency it is hoarding and go bankrupt too. All the people owning gold will lose too because that is a depression not inflation. Cash could become king again.
Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to bag the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist unless the people on welfare come to realize they need to get a real life.
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
Yesterday
Initial Claims 11/05 390K continues to decline: from 397K good news
Continuing Claims 10/29 3615K down again 3683K
Export Prices ex-ag. Oct -1.5% down is good from 0.3%
Import Prices ex-oil Oct -0.2% low import hurts USA 0.2%
Trade Balance Sep -$43.1B slight improvement from -$45.6B
Treasury Budget Oct -$98.5 deficit still way too high though down from -$140.4B
This Week
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 11 2011
More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 3.7 percent. No one seems to worry about the fact that Japan has become the greatest per person debtor in the world and has got in that precarious situation by borrowing from its own people who could lose all his or her savings. The volume yesterday was relatively low indicating very little selling pressure but the market makers simply priced the market down 2% at the start where it stayed until about 1 PM and then drifted down about another 1.5%.
The high VIX shot up to 36 yesterday and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. However today it looks like the index may have stopped declining. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were up last night. China up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.9%, India down –1%, Taiwan up 0.8% and Japan up 0.2%.
European markets are up today in a range 0.7% to 1.7 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.7% at 8 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not paper money. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
One American border guard died as a result of that Obama "fast and furious" gun running.
Alabama's Jefferson County Legislators yesterday voted 4 to 1 to file for bankruptcy in what would be the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. They have teetered on the edge of a bankruptcy since 2008 and would surpass the Orange County, California, and bankruptcy in 1994. The filing could add to heightened concerns about the $3.7 trillion U.S. municipal debt, which has recently been hit hard by the high-profile debt crisis in Pennsylvania's capital of Harrisburg. Brokers have been selling municipal bonds to investors claiming they are safer than stocks but it is the international debt (bonds) that are the source of stock market fears.
Obama’s/Warren Buffet’s U.S. wind turbine BS will “fall off a cliff” unless lawmakers extend tax credits supporting the market beyond 2012, said Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the biggest maker of the machines. That is right, unless the American taxpayer pays for them nobody buys them because they do not even pay for themselves in the energy needed to produce them.
“The solar PV market has certainly reached a point where some illusions are meeting reality,” Wacker Chief Executive Officer Rudolf Staudigl told investors in an Oct. 28 conference call. “About the length of the downturn in polysilicon, I simply cannot answer.” said Robert Schramm- Fuchs and Shai Hill, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. Polysilicon has plunged 93 percent to $33 a kilogram from $475 three years ago as the industry cannot sell the panels even with Obama taxpayer subsidies and the taxpayer money spent on Solyndra and other companies is used to funnel money into the campaigns of socialists who now own over 90% of the US national news media.
The US Poverty level reaches a record high of 16% under Obama. 20% of single men over 25 yr. old are living at home. There are more homeless people in America since the Socialists won with Obama.
Bodies of warriors have gone missing and apparently the Obama administration had them incinerated and used for landfill.
GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama.
Holder admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to create a national outcry against gun owners and trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard died as a result of that Obama "fast and furious" gun running.
September 2011 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $403.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (+/-0.9)* from the revised August level and were up 15.0 percent (+/- 1.2%) from the September 2010 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $0.1 billion. September sales of durable goods were down 0.4 percent (+/- 1.1%)* from last month, but were up 13.5 percent (+/-1.6%) from a year ago. Sales of nondurable goods were up 1.2 percent (+/-1.1%) from August and were up 16.3 percent (+/- 1.8%) from last September. Sales of chemicals and allied products were up 7.8 percent from last month and sales of petroleum and petroleum products were up 3.9 percent.
September 2011 Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $462.0 billion at the end of September, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%)* from the revised August level, but were up 11.9 percent (+/-0.9%) from the September 2010 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.6 billion or 0.3 percent. September inventories of durable goods were up 0.4 percent (+/- 0.4%)* from last month and were up 12.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from a year ago. Inventories of machinery, equipment, and supplies were up 2.7 percent from last month, while inventories of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software were down 2.5 percent. Inventories of nondurable goods were down 0.9 percent (+/-0.7%) from August, but were up 11.8 percent (+/-1.9%) from last September. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 8.2 percent from last month and inventories of petroleum and petroleum products were down 4.0 percent.
Inventories/Sales Ratio
The September inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.15. The September 2010 ratio was 1.18. That is a slight year to year improvement. It is desirable to average 1.0 over time.
World markets
The European Central Bank stepped in and bought Italy’s debt when Italy sold the $5B Euro debt today. That has not sunk in yet. When it sinks in, investors will panic and try to sell their Italian bonds to the ECB forcing the ECB to stop supporting Italy. Obama economic ignorance and socialist ideas are setting the USA up for the same crisis the EU is having. If this contagion spreads Japan will fall, the USA will fall and China will lose all the currency it is hoarding and go bankrupt too. All the people owning gold will lose too because that is a depression not inflation. Cash could become king again.
Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to bag the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist .
Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering an end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut their government spending. Italy, with its public debt of roughly $2.6 trillion, or 120% of its total economic output, has become the latest focus. The yield on the country's debt has ballooned since the summer and the benchmark 10-year note hit a fresh euro-era high of 7.495% on Wednesday
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
This Week
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 10 2011
More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 3.7 percent. No one seems to worry about the fact that Japan has become the greatest per person debtor in the world and has got in that precarious situation by borrowing from its own people who could lose all his or her savings. The volume yesterday was relatively low indicating very little selling pressure but the market makers simply priced the market down 2% at the start where it stayed until about 1 PM and then drifted down about another 1.5%.
The high VIX shot up to 36 yesterday and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. However today it looks like the index may have stopped declining. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down -1.8%, Hong Kong down -5.3%, India closed. Taiwan down –3.3% and Japan down –2.9%.
European markets are up today in a range 04% to 1.4 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 1% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not paper money. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money.
Obama’s/Warren Buffet’s U.S. wind turbine BS will “fall off a cliff” unless lawmakers extend tax credits supporting the market beyond 2012, said Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the biggest maker of the machines. That is right, unless the American taxpayer pays for them nobody buys them because they do not even pay for themselves in the energy needed to produce them.
“The solar PV market has certainly reached a point where some illusions are meeting reality,” Wacker Chief Executive Officer Rudolf Staudigl told investors in an Oct. 28 conference call. “About the length of the downturn in polysilicon, I simply cannot answer.” said Robert Schramm- Fuchs and Shai Hill, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. Polysilicon has plunged 93 percent to $33 a kilogram from $475 three years ago as the industry cannot sell the panels even with Obama taxpayer subsidies and the taxpayer money spent on Solyndra and other companies is used to funnel money into the campaigns of socialists who now own over 90% of the US national news media.
The US Poverty level reaches a record high of 16% under Obama. 20% of single men over 25 yr. old are living at home. There are more homeless people in America since the Socialists won with Obama.
Bodies of warriors have gone missing and apparently the Obama administration had them incinerated and used for landfill.
GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama.
Holder admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to create a national outcry against gun owners and trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard died as a result of that Obama "fast and furious" gun running.
September 2011 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $403.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (+/-0.9)* from the revised August level and were up 15.0 percent (+/- 1.2%) from the September 2010 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $0.1 billion. September sales of durable goods were down 0.4 percent (+/- 1.1%)* from last month, but were up 13.5 percent (+/-1.6%) from a year ago. Sales of nondurable goods were up 1.2 percent (+/-1.1%) from August and were up 16.3 percent (+/- 1.8%) from last September. Sales of chemicals and allied products were up 7.8 percent from last month and sales of petroleum and petroleum products were up 3.9 percent.
September 2011 Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $462.0 billion at the end of September, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%)* from the revised August level, but were up 11.9 percent (+/-0.9%) from the September 2010 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.6 billion or 0.3 percent. September inventories of durable goods were up 0.4 percent (+/- 0.4%)* from last month and were up 12.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from a year ago. Inventories of machinery, equipment, and supplies were up 2.7 percent from last month, while inventories of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software were down 2.5 percent. Inventories of nondurable goods were down 0.9 percent (+/-0.7%) from August, but were up 11.8 percent (+/-1.9%) from last September. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 8.2 percent from last month and inventories of petroleum and petroleum products were down 4.0 percent.
Inventories/Sales Ratio
The September inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.15. The September 2010 ratio was 1.18. That is a slight year to year improvement. It is desirable to average 1.0 over time.
World markets
The European Central Bank stepped in and bought Italy’s debt when Italy sold the $5B Euro debt today. That has not sunk in yet. When it sinks in, investors will panic and try to sell their Italian bonds to the ECB forcing the ECB to stop supporting Italy. Obama economic ignorance and socialist ideas are setting the USA up for the same crisis the EU is having. If this contagion spreads Japan will fall, the USA will fall and China will lose all the currency it is hoarding and go bankrupt too. All the people owning gold will lose too because that is a depression not inflation. Cash could become king again.
Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to bag the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist .
Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering an end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut their government spending. Italy, with its public debt of roughly $2.6 trillion, or 120% of its total economic output, has become the latest focus. The yield on the country's debt has ballooned since the summer and the benchmark 10-year note hit a fresh euro-era high of 7.495% on Wednesday
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
This Week
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 10 2011
More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 3.7 percent. No one seems to worry about the fact that Japan has become the greatest per person debtor in the world and has got in that precarious situation by borrowing from its own people who could lose all his or her savings. The volume yesterday was relatively low indicating very little selling pressure but the market makers simply priced the market down 2% at the start where it stayed until about 1 PM and then drifted down about another 1.5%.
The high VIX shot up to 36 yesterday and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. However today it looks like the index may have stopped declining. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down -1.8%, Hong Kong down -5.3%, India closed. Taiwan down –3.3% and Japan down –2.9%.
European markets are up today in a range 04% to 1.4 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 1% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not paper money. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Poverty level reaches a record high of 16% under Obama. 20% of single men over 25 yr. old are living at home.
Poverty level reaches a record high of 16% under Obama. 20% of single men over 25 yr. old are living at home. Socialists lose big in yesterday’s elections.
GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama.
Holder admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard was murdered as a result of that Obama fiasco.
World markets
Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering an end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut government spending.
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
New Home Sales Sep 313K improved 6% from 295K very good
Last week the good
Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% down from +211.5% -
Initial Claims 10/29 397K down from 402K
Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% up from -0.7%
Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -2.4% down from 3.3%
Factory Orders Sep 0.3% up from -0.2%
Last week the bad
Chicago PMI Oct 58.4 down from 60.4
Construction Spending Sep 0.2% down from 1.4%
ISM Index Oct 50.8 down from 51.6
MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% down from 4.9%
ADP Employment Change Oct 110K up from 91K
Crude Inventories 10/29 1.826M down from 4.735M
Continuing Claims 10/22 3683K up from 3645K
ISM Services Oct 52.9 down 53.0
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 80K down 103K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 104K down 137K
Last week the indifferent
FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% no change
Unemployment Rate Oct 9.0% makes no sense 9.1%
Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% constant 0.2%
Average Workweek Oct 34.3 no change 34.3
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news
This Week
Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05
Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 9 2011
A 90% price recovery relative to the 2011 market high is now possible by the end of January. Market likely to begin lower. The high VIX could go higher yet today and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were flat last night. China up 0.8%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, India down –1.2%, Taiwan down -0.5% and Japan up 1.2%.
European markets are down today in a range –1.4% to –3.6 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about 2% at 7 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama.
Holder admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard was murdered as a result of that Obama fiasco.
World markets
Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering an end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut government spending.
Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
New Home Sales Sep 313K improved 6% from 295K very good
Last week the good
Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% down from +211.5% -
Initial Claims 10/29 397K down from 402K
Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% up from -0.7%
Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -2.4% down from 3.3%
Factory Orders Sep 0.3% up from -0.2%
Last week the bad
Chicago PMI Oct 58.4 down from 60.4
Construction Spending Sep 0.2% down from 1.4%
ISM Index Oct 50.8 down from 51.6
MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% down from 4.9%
ADP Employment Change Oct 110K up from 91K
Crude Inventories 10/29 1.826M down from 4.735M
Continuing Claims 10/22 3683K up from 3645K
ISM Services Oct 52.9 down 53.0
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 80K down 103K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 104K down 137K
Last week the indifferent
FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% no change
Unemployment Rate Oct 9.0% makes no sense 9.1%
Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% constant 0.2%
Average Workweek Oct 34.3 no change 34.3
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news
This Week
Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05
Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 9 2011
A 90% price recovery relative to the 2011 market high is now possible by the end of January. Market likely to begin lower. The high VIX could go higher yet today and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were flat last night. China up 0.8%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, India down –1.2%, Taiwan down -0.5% and Japan up 1.2%.
European markets are down today in a range –1.4% to –3.6 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about 2% at 7 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
The clearest sign that Obama is killing the American economy is the fact that stores started to put up Christmas decorations the week before Halloween
The clearest sign that Obama is killing the American economy is the fact that stores started to put up Christmas decorations the week before Halloween. Obama’s performance is so bad the stores want to get some holiday cheer somehow.
Former NJ Democrat Governor Jon Corzine's resigned from MF Global after making 3:1 leveraged bets on the European sovereign debt problem and bankrupting the company he ran. Being a big socialist like George Soros, Jon Corzine expected another bailout not a German haircut. Recently they were trying to unload some on retirees saying they were safe bonds.
World markets
Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering potential end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut government spending.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
New Home Sales Sep 313K improved 6% from 295K very good
Last week the good
Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% down from +211.5% -
Initial Claims 10/29 397K down from 402K
Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% up from -0.7%
Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -2.4% down from 3.3%
Factory Orders Sep 0.3% up from -0.2%
Last week the bad
Chicago PMI Oct 58.4 down from 60.4
Construction Spending Sep 0.2% down from 1.4%
ISM Index Oct 50.8 down from 51.6
MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% down from 4.9%
ADP Employment Change Oct 110K up from 91K
Crude Inventories 10/29 1.826M down from 4.735M
Continuing Claims 10/22 3683K up from 3645K
ISM Services Oct 52.9 down 53.0
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 80K down 103K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 104K down 137K
Last week the indifferent
FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% no change
Unemployment Rate Oct 9.0% makes no sense 9.1%
Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% constant 0.2%
Average Workweek Oct 34.3 no change 34.3
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news
This Week
Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05
Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 8 2011
A 90% price recovery relative to the 2011 market high is now possible by the end of January. Volume action still good as it increases on the up side.
The high VIX says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The NYSE is already half way back to its July, 22,2011 level. That meets our prediction that, “We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery.”
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The market broke the 200dma and triggered a buy signal and surge.
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were flat last night. China down –0.2%, Hong Kong up 0.6%, India up 0.1%, Taiwan down -0.3% and Japan down –1.3%.
European markets are up today in a range +0.8% to +1.7 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.5% at 7 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Former NJ Democrat Governor Jon Corzine's resigned from MF Global after making 3:1 leveraged bets on the European sovereign debt problem and bankrupting the company he ran. Being a big socialist like George Soros, Jon Corzine expected another bailout not a German haircut. Recently they were trying to unload some on retirees saying they were safe bonds.
World markets
Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering potential end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut government spending.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
New Home Sales Sep 313K improved 6% from 295K very good
Last week the good
Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% down from +211.5% -
Initial Claims 10/29 397K down from 402K
Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% up from -0.7%
Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -2.4% down from 3.3%
Factory Orders Sep 0.3% up from -0.2%
Last week the bad
Chicago PMI Oct 58.4 down from 60.4
Construction Spending Sep 0.2% down from 1.4%
ISM Index Oct 50.8 down from 51.6
MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% down from 4.9%
ADP Employment Change Oct 110K up from 91K
Crude Inventories 10/29 1.826M down from 4.735M
Continuing Claims 10/22 3683K up from 3645K
ISM Services Oct 52.9 down 53.0
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 80K down 103K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 104K down 137K
Last week the indifferent
FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% no change
Unemployment Rate Oct 9.0% makes no sense 9.1%
Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% constant 0.2%
Average Workweek Oct 34.3 no change 34.3
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news
This Week
Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05
Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 8 2011
A 90% price recovery relative to the 2011 market high is now possible by the end of January. Volume action still good as it increases on the up side.
The high VIX says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The NYSE is already half way back to its July, 22,2011 level. That meets our prediction that, “We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery.”
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The market broke the 200dma and triggered a buy signal and surge.
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were flat last night. China down –0.2%, Hong Kong up 0.6%, India up 0.1%, Taiwan down -0.3% and Japan down –1.3%.
European markets are up today in a range +0.8% to +1.7 % half way through their day.
American market futures are up about 0.5% at 7 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.
Monday, November 7, 2011
In the long run liberals make it pay to be stupid. Energy blackouts give Obama a warm feeling
Obama is now the first president to have two major crippling blackouts in his term as president. And they both occurred in the last three months. This year he has instituted the requirement that special government emergency committees be set up and filed with democrat controlled states in order to get emergency crews into Northeast townships. If the town does not file the necessary government they get no private utility company crews to restore power. The most conservative towns got power within four days. The most liberal communities were screaming yesterday after a week because they can’t figure our how to form an emergency committee and fill out the paperwork. So last night the Democrat Governors waved the requirement. Now just competent town governments need to file to get the repair crews. In the long run liberals make it pay to be stupid. Power is almost on again in New England. The new government paperwork gives liberals a new excuse for extended energy blackouts. Energy blackouts give Obama a warm feeling because in the Obama homelands of Africa and the Far East they occur every day. American energy blackouts are part of Obama’s effort to bring equality to the world.
Former NJ Democrat Governor Jon Corzine's resigned from MF Global after making 3:1 leveraged bets on the European debt problem and bankrupting the company he ran. Being a big socialist like George Soros, Jon Corzine expected another bailout not a German haircut
World markets
Greece should be ejected from the EU. The USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut government spending.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
New Home Sales Sep 313K improved 6% from 295K very good
Last week the good
Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% down from +211.5% -
Initial Claims 10/29 397K down from 402K
Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% up from -0.7%
Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -2.4% down from 3.3%
Factory Orders Sep 0.3% up from -0.2%
Last week the bad
Chicago PMI Oct 58.4 down from 60.4
Construction Spending Sep 0.2% down from 1.4%
ISM Index Oct 50.8 down from 51.6
MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% down from 4.9%
ADP Employment Change Oct 110K up from 91K
Crude Inventories 10/29 1.826M down from 4.735M
Continuing Claims 10/22 3683K up from 3645K
ISM Services Oct 52.9 down 53.0
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 80K down 103K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 104K down 137K
Last week the indifferent
FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% no change
Unemployment Rate Oct 9.0% makes no sense 9.1%
Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% constant 0.2%
Average Workweek Oct 34.3 no change 34.3
This Week
Nov 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep
Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05
Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 7 2011
A 90% price recovery relative to the 2011 market high is now possible by the end of January. Volume action still good as it increases on the up side.
The high VIX says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The NYSE is already half way back to its July, 22,2011 level. That meets our prediction that, “We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery.”
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The market broke the 200dma and triggered a buy signal and surge.
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down –0.7%, Hong Kong down –0.8%, India up 0.4%, Taiwan up 0.2% and Japan down –0.4%.
European markets are erratic today in a range +0.9% to -0.9 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about –0.4% at 7 AM EST.
Former NJ Democrat Governor Jon Corzine's resigned from MF Global after making 3:1 leveraged bets on the European debt problem and bankrupting the company he ran. Being a big socialist like George Soros, Jon Corzine expected another bailout not a German haircut
World markets
Greece should be ejected from the EU. The USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut government spending.
China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
American Economy
New Home Sales Sep 313K improved 6% from 295K very good
Last week the good
Challenger Job Cuts Oct +12.6% down from +211.5% -
Initial Claims 10/29 397K down from 402K
Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% up from -0.7%
Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q3 -2.4% down from 3.3%
Factory Orders Sep 0.3% up from -0.2%
Last week the bad
Chicago PMI Oct 58.4 down from 60.4
Construction Spending Sep 0.2% down from 1.4%
ISM Index Oct 50.8 down from 51.6
MBA Mortgage Index 10/29 0.2% down from 4.9%
ADP Employment Change Oct 110K up from 91K
Crude Inventories 10/29 1.826M down from 4.735M
Continuing Claims 10/22 3683K up from 3645K
ISM Services Oct 52.9 down 53.0
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 80K down 103K
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 104K down 137K
Last week the indifferent
FOMC Rate Decision Nov 0.25% no change
Unemployment Rate Oct 9.0% makes no sense 9.1%
Hourly Earnings Oct 0.2% constant 0.2%
Average Workweek Oct 34.3 no change 34.3
This Week
Nov 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Sep
Nov 9 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/05
Nov 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep
Nov 9 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov
Market Outlook November 7 2011
A 90% price recovery relative to the 2011 market high is now possible by the end of January. Volume action still good as it increases on the up side.
The high VIX says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The NYSE is already half way back to its July, 22,2011 level. That meets our prediction that, “We still expect a normal advance of at least 50% of the total recent decline and possibly as much as 90% recovery.”
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The market broke the 200dma and triggered a buy signal and surge.
Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down –0.7%, Hong Kong down –0.8%, India up 0.4%, Taiwan up 0.2% and Japan down –0.4%.
European markets are erratic today in a range +0.9% to -0.9 % half way through their day.
American market futures are down about –0.4% at 7 AM EST.
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