Thursday, November 10, 2011

One American border guard died as a result of that Obama "fast and furious" gun running.

Alabama's Jefferson County Legislators yesterday voted 4 to 1 to file for bankruptcy in what would be the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. They have teetered on the edge of a bankruptcy since 2008 and would surpass the Orange County, California, and bankruptcy in 1994. The filing could add to heightened concerns about the $3.7 trillion U.S. municipal debt, which has recently been hit hard by the high-profile debt crisis in Pennsylvania's capital of Harrisburg. Brokers have been selling municipal bonds to investors claiming they are safer than stocks but it is the international debt (bonds) that are the source of stock market fears.

Obama’s/Warren Buffet’s U.S. wind turbine BS will “fall off a cliff” unless lawmakers extend tax credits supporting the market beyond 2012, said Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the biggest maker of the machines. That is right, unless the American taxpayer pays for them nobody buys them because they do not even pay for themselves in the energy needed to produce them.

“The solar PV market has certainly reached a point where some illusions are meeting reality,” Wacker Chief Executive Officer Rudolf Staudigl told investors in an Oct. 28 conference call. “About the length of the downturn in polysilicon, I simply cannot answer.” said Robert Schramm- Fuchs and Shai Hill, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. Polysilicon has plunged 93 percent to $33 a kilogram from $475 three years ago as the industry cannot sell the panels even with Obama taxpayer subsidies and the taxpayer money spent on Solyndra and other companies is used to funnel money into the campaigns of socialists who now own over 90% of the US national news media.

The US Poverty level reaches a record high of 16% under Obama. 20% of single men over 25 yr. old are living at home. There are more homeless people in America since the Socialists won with Obama.

Bodies of warriors have gone missing and apparently the Obama administration had them incinerated and used for landfill.

GM already owes $10Billion to the union pensions since the bailout. GE is another Solyndra type scandal for Obama.

Holder admits his agency did the Mexican gun running that was supposed to create a national outcry against gun owners and trigger gun controls on Americans in violation of the US Constitution. One American border guard died as a result of that Obama "fast and furious" gun running.

September 2011 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $403.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (+/-0.9)* from the revised August level and were up 15.0 percent (+/- 1.2%) from the September 2010 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $0.1 billion. September sales of durable goods were down 0.4 percent (+/- 1.1%)* from last month, but were up 13.5 percent (+/-1.6%) from a year ago. Sales of nondurable goods were up 1.2 percent (+/-1.1%) from August and were up 16.3 percent (+/- 1.8%) from last September. Sales of chemicals and allied products were up 7.8 percent from last month and sales of petroleum and petroleum products were up 3.9 percent.

September 2011 Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $462.0 billion at the end of September, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%)* from the revised August level, but were up 11.9 percent (+/-0.9%) from the September 2010 level. The August preliminary estimate was revised downward $1.6 billion or 0.3 percent. September inventories of durable goods were up 0.4 percent (+/- 0.4%)* from last month and were up 12.0 percent (+/-1.4%) from a year ago. Inventories of machinery, equipment, and supplies were up 2.7 percent from last month, while inventories of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software were down 2.5 percent. Inventories of nondurable goods were down 0.9 percent (+/-0.7%) from August, but were up 11.8 percent (+/-1.9%) from last September. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 8.2 percent from last month and inventories of petroleum and petroleum products were down 4.0 percent.

Inventories/Sales Ratio
The September inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.15. The September 2010 ratio was 1.18. That is a slight year to year improvement. It is desirable to average 1.0 over time.


World markets
The European Central Bank stepped in and bought Italy’s debt when Italy sold the $5B Euro debt today. That has not sunk in yet. When it sinks in, investors will panic and try to sell their Italian bonds to the ECB forcing the ECB to stop supporting Italy. Obama economic ignorance and socialist ideas are setting the USA up for the same crisis the EU is having. If this contagion spreads Japan will fall, the USA will fall and China will lose all the currency it is hoarding and go bankrupt too. All the people owning gold will lose too because that is a depression not inflation. Cash could become king again.

Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to bag the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist .

Italian sovereign debt interest rates rise triggering an end to 18 years of Berlusconi spending. USA banks need to pull investments out of Greece, Spain, Iceland, and Italy until they cut their government spending. Italy, with its public debt of roughly $2.6 trillion, or 120% of its total economic output, has become the latest focus. The yield on the country's debt has ballooned since the summer and the benchmark 10-year note hit a fresh euro-era high of 7.495% on Wednesday

Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.

China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


American Economy

Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.

Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.

This Week
Nov 10 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/05
Nov 10 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/29
Nov 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Nov 10 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep
Nov 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct

Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov

Market Outlook November 10 2011
More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 sliding 3.7 percent. No one seems to worry about the fact that Japan has become the greatest per person debtor in the world and has got in that precarious situation by borrowing from its own people who could lose all his or her savings. The volume yesterday was relatively low indicating very little selling pressure but the market makers simply priced the market down 2% at the start where it stayed until about 1 PM and then drifted down about another 1.5%.

The high VIX shot up to 36 yesterday and says investor’s fears are high. That correlates more with a continuing bull market because complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Since September, international trade has fallen. China must be hurting badly. However today it looks like the index may have stopped declining. We need to watch trade to see if the recovery takes hold again. See 1yr chart. You may need to cut and paste this in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down -1.8%, Hong Kong down -5.3%, India closed. Taiwan down –3.3% and Japan down –2.9%.

European markets are up today in a range 04% to 1.4 % half way through their day.

American market futures are up about 1% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.

If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not paper money. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money.

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