Monday, March 30, 2015

April 2 Low to negative global interest rates have given deadbeat corporate executives virtually free money to replace wasted money and to give themselves bonuses, travel, and parties because a near 0% rate costs nothing and a negative rate gives every dying business a beautiful face lift. But not just deadbeat executives and failing corporations get the benefits. Deadbeat consumers continue to borrow money to make payments on old loans and with today’s new “Stupid Party” credit standards, stupid people continue to loan deadbeats more money. Stupid party bankers have now lowered credit standards and now keep loaning as long as the deadbeat just makes the payments. So all the deadbeat does is get new loans from other stupid party bankers to keep up their payments to the original stupid party bankers who give out the stupid party FED’s newly minted free cash supported by existing worthless debt obligations. That is basically what Obama’s new redistribution of your wealth is doing and why there appears to be no consequences for this stupidity as long as interest rates stay low or go negative. It has of course a tragic ending for the American stock market because it hides the fact that American companies are so far underwater that they would now be virtually bankrupt even at an interest rate of 5%. During Obama’s stupid party cousin Jimmy Carter’s reign of economic terror, inflation broke out and the prime interest rate went over 15% before President Ronald Regan of the “Intelligent Party” got elected and worked on the supply side to get inflation down. The problem with the “stupid party” FED is they are as stupid and incompetent as the Weimar Republic politicians in Germany were in the 1920’s. The FED may yet bankrupt not just America but the free world with their flooding of the world with US currency and debt.

With national debt, either you end up like Greece where they have so much debt they cannot continue to make debt payments or you end up like Germany in the 1920’s.  Hyperinflation occurs when your national debt becomes impossible to pay but the debtor forces you to continue making the payments like the EU is forcing Greece today.  In the case of Germany it caused Hitler’s socialist “Stupid Party” to honestly win his election majority because the people were infuriated by the pound of flesh demanded and the foreign occupation of land and the theft of their resources by foreign occupiers.  The current EU demands for Greece to sell their ports and islands to foreigners are not unlike the demands of the WWI allies that Germany surrender the resources of the Ruhr valley.  In Germany’s 1923 case, Germany with its aggression acted more like Ackman, a market manipulating bully, who is now being investigated for his Herbalife stock manipulations.   Germany probably got what it deserved but it caused WWII and the rise of “stupid party” socialism (NAZI GR and USSR communism) which were worse.   In the case of Greece we have the classic overextended under motivated deadbeat borrower who cannot manage to pay the interest on their debt.  The EU should indefinitely drop their interest rate to a point they can afford to pay without loaning them any more money.  If that interest rate is zero it would be an act of generosity just as the US was generous to both American allies and former enemies in Europe with the Marshal plan.   The evil socialist USSR stole the factory machines of Germany and Poland ruining most of them in the process and took them back to the USSR.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-herbalife-stock-manipulation-probe-china-20150401-story.html
       The U.S. trade gap in February shrank to its lowest level since October 2009, largely reflecting the West Coast ports dispute that created a bottleneck of goods.
            April 1  Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Sterne Agee & Leach Inc. in Chicago, said “There is little hope for noticeable momentum in manufacturing activity” due to weak economic growth and the strong dollar. The factory index declined in spite of the resolution of the dockworkers work stoppage at West Coast ports, implying the slowdown was a national economic problem not a labor problem. Consumer sentiment is now 40% lower than it was just before the DotCom bubble broke in 2000.
Total manufacturing is at its lowest level since Obama took office.
ADP Employment Report Mar for new hiring fell to 189K from 214K last month.
The manufacturing ISM Index for Mar fell to 51.5 from 52.9 where 50 signify zero growth.
International trade is now in decline but has reduced the US trade deficit to -$35.4B, down from -$42.7B last month.
     Construction Spending for Feb fell to -0.7% after falling -1.1% last month.  The government tried to hide the bad numbers shifting the bad news back to last month from this month but we refused to change the raw data.
     Mar 31 February pending home sales rose to their highest level since June 2013.  That sounds pretty good at first doesn’t it?  But just how good were the actual sales in early 2013?  In 2013 they were about 65% of the 2007 sales and almost as bad as 1997 home sales.  But this news is distorted to justify a ridiculously high market PE of about 60 today when you do it more correctly.   As described by a guest on Squawk Box, they ignore all the corporations that have zero earnings because they have infinite PE ratios.  They now use a median (midway stock PE) because the average PE would be close to 60 today but the median they is less than 30.   It is even more foolish to believe Wall Street than the office of the presidency.  The PE today, when done consistently, is higher than during the Dot Com bubble.  Some of the biggest stocks today are evaluated not on the basis of income but on revenue or worse yet hits and tweets.
Jobless claims seem to have bottomed out and are rising again.
Jobless claims seem to have bottomed out and are rising again.
Consumer sentiment is 40% lower than it was just before the DotCom bubble broke in 2000,
Total manufacturing is at its lowest level since Obama took office.
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Monday, March 23, 2015

Mar 27 2015 The stock market is being manipulated by the high speed traders. They are bankrupting hedge funds along with individual traders with their volatility. Yesterday was a particularly destructive day for private wealth. The close was exactly the same NYSE index value as it was at the gapped down opening. That means the manipulators managed to buy into the stock market at prices below the close of both yesterday and the day before and by definition they made a large profit just before the close. Their attack caused prices to gap down and triggered stop loss orders that never would have been triggered without illegal manipulation and that caused people with stop loss protection to lose much more than if the market makers had provided continuity. The manipulators caused discontinuites and then bought in below the starting and closing price while others were selling. With knowledge of the conditions for every conditional order they can use their knowledge and their selling and buying power to skim profits. In fact yesterday the WSJ revealed that many banks swap/sell the portfolio information of their clients with/to others. Knowledgeable “Stupid Party” corrupt predators then know what will force the bank and investment firm clients to sell because that information is collected and in the computer system which the corupt Obama government can tap. If the stupid party is not itself illegally involved why does Obama allow these problems to occur?

The "dark pools" are places that manipulator connected with our corrupt government can get access to private information collected under the fabricated cover of  necessary for national security.   How did Obama know the messages of Governor Christy's staff a month before Governor Christy learned? Every potential Republican presidential candidate has been illegally and corruptly monitored and sabotaged by this administration.  That means sick “stupid party” government officials can now even financially target Christians, Jews, conservatives, businessmen, gun owners, and you if they wish.   Does the Stupid Party government also illegally regularly request information on clients from the Banks they investigate?  The Obama administration already had the IRS illegally target Christians, Jews, conservatives, Republicans, the Chamber of Commerce, and gun owners once.  
     High speed traders and the “stupid party” both need to be slowed down and the sharing of personal bank, brokerage, and government client information should be illegal.  Trading volume limits are worthless when high speed manipulators can spread the trades over microseconds and always guarantee they have enough cash during any one millisecond.   A detectable type of volume activity was associated with the selloffs of July 2009, the selloff the summer of 2010 and the fall of 2011.  It has been happening now again for the past month.   Just plot NYSE volume vs time since 2005.  That is why we think it is now possible for the selloff to begin earlier than we originally estimated would occur by October 2015.
     The stupid party administration is deep into criminal activity and “dirty tricks” or so it seems and it has a habit of losing all records and phone messages unlike honest people like Governor Christie whose staff messages were read first by Obama’s dirty tricks stupid party to destroy Christie’s reputation.   Christie himself did not read his staff’s private messages until after Obama’s stupid party made their dirty trick public.  The Attorney General must know this is a “stupid party” smear campaign since they have not brought any charges and will be embarrassed it will be disclosed a one of Obama’s dirty tricks.  In fact the NY Governor has joined Governor Christie and asked for the resignation of all the corrupt Washington Bridge officials who perpetrated the dirty trick.
     The percentage of Americans participating in the American labor force continues to decline under Obama’s Stupid Party administration.  It was steady at a 66% of the population when Obama won election in October 2008.  It was down to 63.7% when he was re-elected in October of 2012.  It is now down to 62.8% today and still falling.  And without Obama converting the work force from full time workers to hamburger helpers his unemployment rate would be a several percent higher.   The “stupid party” administration is all smoke and mirrors and there is unfortunately no wizard behind Obama’s “Alice in Wonderland” curtain. Obama’s socialist wealth redistribution is a farce; it amounts to poverty redistribution as Churchill said.
     In our opinion jobless claims have flattened out at best and it is due to the decline in average weekly work hours and pay while the stupid party continues to cost Americans full employment, and national achievement.  Instead the stupid party released five of the world’s worst terrorists in exchange for one American deserter that cost the lives of American soldiers who went looking for him.  The Stupid Party attitude encourages terrorists planning genocide for the nation of Israel and is enabling terrorist nations to develop nuclear weapons which they could use first against Israel then Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to create their hoped for new powerful terrorist Persian Empire.  Obama is another hapless Jimmy Carter when it comes to dealing with Iran.  But this time Iran has taken the whole Obama administration hostage.
 
 Mar 26 2015   The key to investing is to keep losses small and let profits run without being eaten alive in a volatile market.   We have noticed that trading market makers have a new strategy to increase their profits.  Very often the first bounce off of a stock’s low is 3% to 5% and that market maker takes that for himself.  This tactic has reduced the profits of investors and hedge funds to the point that our stock market is now so inefficient that small investors and hedge funds are losing money fast.  This type of predatory trading has increased average daily volume on the NYSE by about 300,000 shares a day for the last month.  It has always existed as a sign that a stock market bubble is going to pop.   But now it is done at high speed.
     On a market cash flow basis, the New York Stock Exchange has been declining since July 1 2014.  The DJI Average itself has been flat lined since December 9.   The Standard and Poors average has been flat lined since December 30.  If you add back in the “non-recurring expenses” which are usually just recurring phony expense right-offs used to make earnings appear higher.  Thus it was reported this morning on CNBC that NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are at bubble price earnings levels well over a 60 PE ratio.  
     Canarsie Hedge Fund LLC collapsed.  According to a March 2014 regulatory filing, the fund then had a gross asset value of $98 million.  They lost 33% in 2014.  The hedge fund led by a longtime former head of risk management at Morgan Stanley lost all but $200,000 of its assets, most of it in a period of less than three weeks this year.  The firm’s trader, a 28-year old former Galleon Fund Management trader took risks that caused the hedge fund to become insolvent.   
    We predict that with the coming rapid deflation of the current stock market bubble many leveraged funds will be wiped out with the markets initial decline of 20% to 30%.  That will be the cause of a new banking crisis and another “Stupid Party” failure that will extend the collapse beyond the typical 60% drop to perhaps as much as 90 %.  Once the Stupid Party is ejected in 2016, the market should regain hope and confidence and form a bottom.   In 1998 Clinton ended all the 1932 FDR Great Depression banking regulation safeguards and the Stupid Party now has an Obama manifesto of banking regulations devised to maximize the socialist corruption of the American government with the buying of influence and the use of payoffs for avoiding prosecution.   The liar loan crisis of 2007-2008 was due to institutionalization of government stupidity with the good intension of redistributing home ownership to the poor but it had the “Stupid Party Effect” of bankrupting not just the poor but many of the proletariat (the working people).   Socialism benefits no one but the socialist government employees. 
   There are several new IRS scams going around where people are called and told the caller is from the IRS and that the IRS is about to prosecute them.  The reputation of the IRS is now so low that this new scam actually works.  Forbes thinks Lois Lerner could actually still have access to American taxpayer records so she could even be selling them.  When will Lerner and former Attorney General Holder be arrested for persecuting Christian and conservative taxpayers with abusive tax restrictions, fraudulent audits, and trumped up fines?
“Stupid Party” BS says that women do better in socialist countries.  They recently reported that in Russia 30% of the managers are women, but because the stupid party members are so stupid they don’t have a clue as to what they are talking about.   In 1989, when the Iron Curtain was torn down the “free world” manufacturers found out that the floor machinists in the Russian factories were paid more than the women managers in their front office.   That is how it is under socialism, women managing the office get paid less than men in the factory.  It is only in the Western World that women and children are not abused and women have “equal opportunity” to men.   Pay in the free world depends on what you accomplish.   But the politicians in the Stupid Party are too weak minded to admit that American freedoms are what keeps the “free world” prosperous.   Socialist dictatorship redistribution of the rewards of hard work is often just pure theft and murder in the poorest countries and it is the cause of world poverty.  Socialist redistribution is just a form of stealing from other workers including the proletariat for the benefit of the government employees.   Under Hitler and Stalin socialist redistribution was terrorism on a scale ten times the terror of socialist redistribution under ISIS today.  No intelligent person in their right mind thinks socialist redistribution in the East, Africa, South America, or the Mid East holds a candle to the freedom of the Free World.   Only the “Stupid Party” members advocate abolishing the opportunities only possible in the free world.  Winston Churchill was right and the fact that Obama hates Churchill and sent his statue back to England shows that Obama rightly belongs in the Stupid Party. 
Make pilots use a potty seat once they lock themselves in the cockpit.   
   It is now evident that one or more insane terrorist pilots were likely flying for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, and recently Germanwing and that the sane pilots, if any, were  locked out of the cockpits.   It was reported today that a few years ago a Beech airplane pilot prayed in Arabic as he committed suicide plunging his passengers into the ocean.  The cockpit doors are now so fortified to keep out terrorists that a terrorist pilot cannot be dislodged.  It looks like the first action is that all pilots with less than 3000 flight hours and all Moslem pilots will need to be grounded until rechecked for sanity and security and then all pilots will need annual security checks as well.    Higher security is now needed until world insane sanctioned beheadings subside to less than one beheading a day.   Beheadings sanctioned in this day and age is a sign of mass insanity within that organization or nation.  What Christian, Jew or atheist would fly with an airline where they allow insane pilots who believe in beheading infidels?  Pretty soon no one will fly on airlines of countries that pass insane pilots.  I would not want to own any airline stocks at all now until this problem with insane pilots is resolved.
Mar 25 2015  The stock market gave ominous indications that even the highest growth stocks are now topping out.   The broader market measured by the NYSE has been virtually flat since July 2014 in spite of the best efforts of the Wall Street snake charmers and snake oil salesmen to hype that we have a Teflon coated stock market bubble this time.  We on the other hand are thinking that the Stock Market Bubble collapse might be moving forward now to this summer from what previously we estimated would be in October based on analysis of past bubbles. 
    The housing market has stagnated in spite the low interest rates because the banks are thwarting homeowner efforts to refinance at lower rates because that hurts a bank’s bottom line. 
    The lower and lower interest rates on government and corporate debt has resulted in a bubble in the fixed rate investment market.  Each time the interest rate drops the market value of the debt skyrockets.  When interest rates dropped from 0.4% to 0.2% the bonds doubled in value.  When they drop from 0.2% to 0.1% they double again and so forth.  Theoretically any issued bond’s value approaches infinity when interest rates fall through 0% and go negative.  That is a precursor for the complete collapse of a banking system and an economy.  When that happened in Germany in the 1930’s the wealthiest 2% of their population, the people Obama hates the most, were the bankers in Germany.   They borrowed their bank saver’s money and bought out the banks and all the hard assets.  Then when hyperinflation followed they did what Warren Buffet likes to do all the time, they took the banks private and paid off the other owners, depositors, and creditors with what became the worthless German currency.  Warren Buffet does not have hyperinflation to play with yet.  That is the process by which Warren Buffet profits already and we only have moderate inflation.  There is nothing wrong with that form of capitalism except… when the economy collapsed Hitler went after the bankers, the top 2%, and Hitler became a national hero.  Obama has spoken against the top 2% many times and he displays totalitarian tendencies and wants to redistribute their wealth.   This Obama administration and his FED appointment Janet Yellen are setting America up for a financial collapse of Weimar Republic proportions.  And the disease is now spreading to the EU.  Socialists in South America have ruined their countries like clockwork with inflation and nationalization on 20 to 40 year intervals.
     Orders for durable goods dropped in February as we expected.  It is not just a sign the slowdown in global growth but is partly because this administration always fudges the numbers upward at year end and has to correct the inflated numbers down afterwards or else they drop the January or February numbers and blame it on the weather.  A competent administration upholds best practices which keeps the numbers seasonally adjusted so that they do not vary much with the seasonal weather.  A competent administration makes standard seasonal adjustments to show true growth because they do not have to lie about imaginary prosperity all year long by inflating numbers and then dropping them with corrections even 2 and 3 months later like Obama does.  This Stupid Party administration blames things on the winter weather just as they have blamed George Bush, Congress, and Israel to hide their Stupid Party’s incompetence.   
    Bookings for durable goods declined 1.4 percent after the January level was already quietly adjust lower from the 0.4% GDP Bulls..t they put out the second half of 2014.   Bloomberg, Squawk Box and others think demand for American-made products are softening as economies abroad struggle.
     Mar 24 2015  The stock market snake oil salesmen are trumpeting that new home sales are at a seven-year high but it is all spin that hides the fact that it has fallen far from nine or ten years ago and is anemic at best.  New house sales are still less than half what they were before Obama got into his redistribution act.  And now Obama smears the Jewish Nation for telling Americans things that Obama wanted to be kept secret such as his giving Iran Nuclear Holocaust capability if the ayatollah only waits 10 years so the next holocaust can be blamed on some other American president.    We have high volatility now because the economy has topped out and banks and stocks are now floating on high risk and debt.  Rick Santo... is one of the few on Squawk box that tries to tell the truth.  
      The Nasdaq bubble collapse started in early 2000 but was only admitted at the end of 2000 and of course the Stupid Party blamed it on G. Bush who took office two months later at the end of January 2001.  Initially the Stupid Party blamed 911 on G. Bush too but stopped when it came out that the warning was given in 1993 when al-Qaida first car bombed the Trade Towers and the Stupid Party did not ramp up security but instead they ramped up bank risk by canceling the Glass-Steagall Act.  Clinton eliminated the banking regulations and allowed derivative fraud, and off balance sheet hiding of debt as well as other financial fraud that created the 2000 and 2008 bubbles.  Now we have another Stupid Party Nasdaq bubble that started with Quantitative Easing, socialized medicine, and is ending with speculation in pharmaceuticals leading this current bubble.  We believe the market is getting ready to pop before the end of this year.  At least this time the Stupid Party will have to take responsibility?  Fat chance that will ever happen!
The Huffington Post said, “U.S. financial markets have been highly volatile but with little to show for investors, as opposed to traders, who make their best livings from pointless volatility, for all the swaying back and forth since the start of 2015. “
    Greece wants more than $110,000,000 in damages from Germany claiming they were bribed to buy certain German products.  The only problem is they can’t find a court to even agree to consider their case.   But just in December, Airbus Helicopters subsidiary Rheinmetall Defence Electronics paid 37 million euros in fines to end a criminal investigation in Germany into suspected bribes in Greek arms deals.  It would seem that such fines should go to the nations that were cheated not the nations with corrupt officials that took the bribes, because bribes cut into the income of the proletariat.   The Russian people go hungry while Putin gets bribes and lives like a king while executing or imprisoning his political enemies.  The Greek bribes should be taken from the hides of the corrupt Greek government officials who took them.  That is how Singapore fixed their economy and China is trying to copy..
    Reuters has found that when Hilary Clinton began working for Obama, the Clinton Foundation published what they claimed was a complete list of the names of its donors and has continued to update it. But it was a farce because the charity's so-called health program spends more than all of the other foundation initiatives put together, and it stopped making disclosures five years ago.
    In Singapore corruption gets the death penalty.  No Secretary of State from Singapore ever has had difficulty turning over their emails when requested by their government.  Ultimately when a democracy gets a government as corrupted this Obama administration with all their so-called charity work conflicts the electorate cleans out the government at the next election.
 
Mar 23 2015  Analysis of the latest “fools rally” in the stock market shows that it was due mostly to speculation in pharmaceuticals, coffee products, monster drinks, and other companies with unreliable and speculative incomes.   Today the snake oil sales force was actually cheerful comparing the Nasdaq level to the Bubble before it popped in 2000 under Bill Clinton.  The reason the FED will probably not reduce Quantitative Easing (QE) for several years is because inflation has dropped to below 1.5% and is declining.  When it was at 2% inflation the FED said they would wait until it hits 2.5%.  Now that it is below 1.5% inflation the FED said they would wait until it hits 2.0%.  The large world economies are headed towards a depression not inflation, i.e. negative inflation not inflation.  We have pointed out many times that Japan began using QE in 1990 and fell from being the second most powerful economy to the fourth place since then.  The Japanese stock market never recovered once they started QE in 1990.
The problem with low interest rates is that capitalism creates wealth only when capital grows when invested by earning interest.  Otherwise people do not invest money and the velocity of money drops because product prices decrease.  So by waiting you can buy more products later at a lower price.  Jim Cramer does not understand economics and he thinks falling commodity prices like we have now and had during the Great Depression are good for the American economy.  Jim Cramer learned nothing, absolutely nothing from history.  Germany is very worried now because their rates have already gone slightly negative as their prices fall faster than ours.  That is why the entire European Union is trying QE to try to create some inflation.  The FED will never phase out QE due to the declining interest rates.   Instead eventually they will likely start QE4 and risk putting the world on a path toward hyperinflation.  But that will not happen until after this stock market bubble bursts like it did in 1933 when stock prices plunged 90%.  Stocks only plunged 60% under Herbert Hover in 1929.  If our analysis is correct this stock market will be down at least 60% before elections in 2016 so that means Obama will not be able to blame it on anyone else this time.
The German bubble appears ready to burst.  http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
Germany’s banks are feeling the pressure of deflation and testing old lows.
 The French stocks have risen recently to former bubble highs.
The Swiss market is now exactly at its bubble high in 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
   China is supporting its currency and that will hurt their exports and their stock market down the road but will make their stocks more expensive to Americans in the short run.
   We expect Jim Cramer and other snake oil salesmen will wake up to the bubble having burst when the US stock market decline is about half over possibly by this fall.
Existing Home Sales Feb remained well below expectations with prices not rising and jobs stagnant so people are not moving and thus not selling their homes.
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Saturday, March 21, 2015

Here is how we know Obama and his “Stupid Party” lean toward totalitarianism. Obama has just proposed Americans be forced to vote by initially fining eligible voters who do not vote. They say you can always mail in a ballot or call up the “stupid party” and get a ballot personally from “stupid party” volunteers so there is no excuse not to vote. Obama-thinks-voting-should-be-mandatory! US News did a poll and has found that the Stupid Party is one third the American electorate now and they think voting should be compulsory. So does Obama, so did Hitler, so did all the USSR dictators starting with Lenin, and so did Iraq’s Saddam Husein who gassed political opponents and even forced his jailed political prisoners to vote 98% for him or be tortured until they did or died. And it is a fact that fascists like Hitler called themselves socialists in their very party name. And it is a fact that Hitler’s Nationalist Socialists and Stalin’s International socialists secretly worked together and signed a secret Pact to divide and enslave all of Europe between the two socialist slave states, and the only reason Hitler attacked Stalin was because Stalin did not invade Poland when he was supposed to and instead betrayed Hitler and waited for the Hitler to first destroy the Polish army before Stalin invaded. That betrayal by Stalin is why Hitler then attacked the USSR. These are all well established facts that “stupid party” Americans and other socialists are ignorant about or just too stupid to understand.





 

    We reported March 19 that one site labeled as a FOX site was obviously sabotaged by the Stupid Party and something began to take over our computer, so we quickly broke the connection and activated our security scanning.  There was no detected virus.  If there had been a virus then President Obama and his “Stupid Party” would be liable and would be sued by thousands of Americans who probably looked at the site just as we did.  It is sinister that the “stupid party” would even consider enraging the American Electorate that way by sabotaging sites of people and organizations that support American democracy.  It shows the “Stupid Party” wants a compulsory totalitarian election system and will do what Hussein, Hitler, Stalin and others did to get and hold power if they can.  The “Stupid Party” is suddenly becoming dangerous to American democracy.  And yet Republicans have some powerful “Stupid Candidates” as well.  On the Opinion page of the Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan has as usual an excellent article on the “Stupid Candidates” of both parties who need to get their acts straight or be trounced lest American democracy becomes a socialist dictatorship. 

    There is nothing wrong with our American proletariat, our working-class people.  It is when stupid criminal people rule and force the working people (the proletariat) electorate to vote 98% or 99% for them that Americans get engaged and fight for freedom.  Even a 98% turnout shows the election is a farce.  Obama wants a 100% turnout.  33% of Americans have put their head in the sand and now support his “stupid party.”  And Obama wants illegal aliens to complete his totalitarian dreams.   It is not illegal to fly a Communist or Islamic state flag or other foreign flag over an American flag but it is a sign of great disrespect for American democratic principles to do that.  People who invade our country are illegal by definition because they did not obey our laws from day one, and they often show contempt and fly a foreign flag above our flag, and they often want their foreign language forced on Americans… even indigenous Americans.  That is a fact, and we have all seen it and know it is a fact.  Before the Obama administration all immigrants had to enter America legally, and could not be Nazi, communists, criminals or others that do not agree to obey the laws and swear allegiance to America.






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Monday, March 16, 2015

Mar 21, 2015 The strong dollar has three adverse effects on the American stock markets. First it reduces American company revenue earned abroad when accounted for in US dollars and therefore hurts profits garnered abroad. Secondly it makes domestic US products more expensive abroad so it reduces sales abroad. Third it makes foreign products sold in the US less expensive hence hurting the US balance of trade and causing a loss of American competitiveness and hence a loss of American jobs.

Mar 20, 2015   Irrational exuberance definitely hit the ceiling again this week.  The FED report was spun ten ways to Sunday triggering thousands of stop loss orders.  Then over Thursday night, thousands of other investors covered shorts while still others put in buy orders.  Every index experiences about 80% of its total advance at the opening bell this morning.   But all but the NASDAQ bounced off their former highs and ended lower than their highs.  Some even ended lower that their morning opening surge.   All but the NASDAQ have failed to break new territory.  The NYSE, the broadest index has not broken new ground since July 2014.  Most investors have seen losses since July 2014 but so have short sellers who have been tossed about due to the high volatility.  Only the firms churning the market behind the scene and the brokers have profited from the volatility.  Ultimately the buyers will have their funds exhausted.  This is as it was in early 2008 after our sell signal in late 2007.  Again, while it is a coincidence that 2007 and 2014 are similar and volatility has increased similarly in 2008 and 2015, it only serves as a good warning to act prudently and not impatiently.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%221y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D 
 

     Friday the Stoxx 600 index in Europe rose 0.8 percent to within two points of its all-time high reached in 2000 when that bubble burst.  The NASDAQ’s record close then was 5,048.62. Even with today’s advance it remains a long way from its intraday high of 5,132.52, reached in 2000.   During the Dotcom bubble the situation was the same as today with many stocks having revenue but little or no profits.

The pain Russia is feeling from low oil prices has increased crude available for export and the rising shipments from Russia, one of the world’s largest oil producer should push crude prices down more than 60 percent from last year. Falling energy prices have pushed Russia to the brink of recession, damping demand for refined fuel products in the country and increasing the need to export more oil.


Housing Starts Feb 897K down from 1081K

MBA Mortgage Index 03/14 -3.9% down more from -1.3% 

Trade Balance Q4 -$113.5B worsens from -$98.9B
Mar 19, 2015   So far no one has given the right answer for the stock market surge yesterday that was executed with computer precision.  It was not man made; it had the signature of machine driven rally.  Apparently short sellers were covering shorts and swing trader buyers were getting buy signals triggered.  This is what must have happened.  The short sellers and swing traders always establish trading conditions and those conditions were met and automatically triggered.  For instance the swing traders saw the volume dropped the previous day and were anticipating a rally with a hair trigger.  The short traders had standard stop loss triggers and swing traders had their buy signal triggers based on what they computed to be the bottom.  As the market rose the most recent short sellers covered first and most swing traders joined in within the first 15 minutes.  That caught other investors by surprise and the volume convinced other institutional investors to pile in.  That is the computer driven explanation for yesterday and it implies that the lack of human thinking implies that it was a false rally that will not last long.
     Congratulations to Israel for re-electing the candidate Obama tried to defeat.  On Obama’s first tour of the Middle East he snubbed Israel a nation that is the target of a criminally insane minority who also wish to kill all Christians, Buddhists, and Hindus.  Obama appears to be willing to allow Iran to build nuclear weapons if they wait just ten years so it is not blamed on Obama. 
     Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and other large banks made loans to energy companies that have suffered the oil slump and could now default.  The banks hoped to repackage and sell the debt to investors but instead the banks could have tens of millions of dollars in losses.  
     Boone Pickens says that within four months the US will have cut oil production enough for prices to begin to stabilize and later begin to move up this summer.  He thinks that then within a year the oil price will stabilize at $80/barrel for quite some time.  Most American oil companies are now shutting down non-US shale operations and total world shale oil production has already been cut about 40%.
     Russian socialist harassment has resulted in a 75% drop in GM car sales in Russia forcing GM to shut down their auto production in Russia.  GM was the only American auto manufacturer that invested in Russia.  No other foreign auto makers have suffered Putin’s hostility.  That is a lesson for American “Stupid Party” members who think a dictatorship of the proletariat is a great idea because even the national leader of America’s “Stupid Party” has failed with liberal socialist dictator Putin.
    FOX news has the highest viewing audience and is rated as the most objective.  The Stupid Party proletariat have now infected some web sites that use the name FOX so beware.  Here is one we found today.   This site sent an alarm and threat but apparently did not launch a detectable attack.  If that ever occurs to you the first thing to do is disconnect from the web.  Then close their infecting site and then run a virus scan.   Microsoft found no threat was installed on our system.  If the “Stupid Party” is found to now be damaging the computers of Obama and/or Stupid Party critics there will be a major criminal investigation… far more than Watergate, and severe penalties.   This was the site from were the attack was triggered.
Ratings: Fox #1 for 13th Year, MSNBC Collapses By Double ...
 
    Corruption in Obama’s health programs now exceeds $3.3 billion per year, up from close to zero before.  And Obama only has about 8 million of the 40 million people he said would get his free entitlement coverage.  But $3.3 billion corruption is thought to be just the tip of the ice burg for his administration’s corruption.   Former vice president Cheney called Obama "the worst president in my lifetime, — it's a tragedy, a real tragedy, and we are going to pay a hell of a price just trying to dig out from under his presidency."
The single family housing market is in shambles and deteriorating.  It is still worse than after the DOTCOM bubble and the 911 attack.
 
MBA Mortgage Index 03/14 declined another -3.9% after declining -1.3% last month. 
 
   Mar 18, 2015   Wall Street at first sank while oil prices fell as data showed U.S. crude inventories hit a record high. U.S. crude supply rose nearly three times as much as expected last week according to the Energy Administration information.   Brent for May delivery rose to $54.35 while U.S. crude fell for a seventh straight session, hitting a six-year low at $42.03.   The Fed was weighing whether the U.S. recovery could hold up against collapsing oil prices.   The Federal Reserve did exactly what everyone predicted and yet the market gapped upward by about 1.3% in about 15 minutes time.  The FED has dropped its pledge to be “patient” before raising interest rates, freeing its hands to lift official borrowing costs for the first time in nearly a decade.  Apparently, there was some mechanism going on behind the scene because the market reacted positively to the possibility of FED tightening now.  This is the opposite of what happened every other time the FED suggested tightening again.  It is believed that the FED wants to further weaken the US dollar to strengthen US exports.  The rate of the NYSE trading volume doubled for about an hour after the announcement.   See data from 3-18-2015 on the 5 day plot.
 
Earlier the US Dollar had already weakened vs. major currencies while investors snapped up 3.3 billion Euros of 10-year German Bunds at a sale.   The previous soaring dollar had eaten away at profits of U.S. multinational corporations.  But concern is now growing that the EU's Quantitative easing is creating a shortage of top-rated European debt to back the currency inflation.   Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis said "The U.S. stock market is going to have trouble with interest rates the rest of the year."   
 
Mar 16, 2015   The broad NYSE shows it is a good predictor of the point when American capitalists ignore the paparazzi and hunker down to reality and right off losses, sell miss fitting enterprises, and finally bite the bullet and clean up their balance sheets and earnings reports. Hype is often motivating and energizing but periodically free enterprise economies need to hunker down, reduce debt, strategize for the next campaign, reinforce and prepare to wage a new era of technological and economic growth.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D
     NY State Manufacturing Mar 6.9 down from 7.8 
     March 2015 Industrial Production was -0.4% but they revised February down -0.5% from what had been +0.2% and brought that 0.5% forward to March to make March look like it improved 0.1% instead of actually falling -0.4% for March.  Most analysts will not examine the fraud this Obama administration perpetrates to make people think things are improving.  If the US banks acted like the Obama administration, people would put their money in Swiss bank accounts.
     The NAHB Housing Market Index for Mar fell 3.9% to 53 from 55 last month.
     Retail sales fell 0.9% last month
Rhttp://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=retail_sales
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Monday, March 9, 2015

March 14 The stock market decline on Wednesday and the rise on Thursday were on reduced volume. A capitulation is defined as a large reversal on 25% or higher volume. Wednesday’s volume was only 56% of the volume on Oct 15, 2014. But October was no where near capitulation volume levels. Wholesale prices declined in February for a fourth consecutive month, causing a slump in profit margins among wholesalers and retailers. Retail Sales Feb -0.6% down again after -0.8% for January. Business inventories remained unchanged at a high level.



     Russia's economic misery continues to deepen and their central bank slashed its growth forecast.   It now expects the Russian economy to contract by between 3.5% and 4% in 2015, down from its January prediction of growth.
     Robert O'Neill is the Navy Seal who risked his life and actually took out Oslam Bim Labin.  He is under attack now by the Stupid Party.  His crime is he stole the show from Barric Husane Obamba.   So now he is under attack to determine if the president can punish him in some way.   Isn’t that disgusting?
       Mar 12, 2015   U.S. business inventories were unchanged December to January and further declines in hoped-for January discount sales  pushed the number of months it would take to clear shelves to the highest since July 2009.  That suggests a reduction in stock orders in the months ahead and a further slowdown in production.   Unemployment claims appeared to have stopped falling and may be rising again indicating the Obama policies have failed and a new recession is beginning.  The unemployment plot looks very similar to the slowdown in 2007.
    The evidence of the slowdown is significant since the NYSE flat-lining since July 2007, the NYSE sell signal occurred in October and plunging oil prices followed the world’s 2014 economic slowdown in November.  And they all also occurred at the end of the previous business cycle.   Still it will be several months for the DJI, the NASDAQ to decline enough for the Stupid Party’s stock analysts to break the news and then blame George Bush or the US Congress again.  One thing is certain, Obama never has anything to do with and therefore accepts no responsibility for any of the disasters that seem to follow him everywhere.
    Mar 10, 2015   The first round of this bear market ended October 14, 2015.  Yesterday was the confirmation that the second round with the bear is underway.  This too will be followed by a rally which will take some stocks back to recent highs, but this time not just the NYSE will be topped out.   This time we expect some of the broader indices will give sell signals on a cash flow basis if not a price basis.  As we said before the NYSE  gave various stock market price and cash flow sell signals by last Oct 15. 
     Rising U.S. yields and EU Quantitative Easing are drawing funds away from the BRICS and other emerging markets, causing strains on their currencies. The Mexican peso hit a record low against the dollar while the Brazilian real fell against the dollar for the 13th time in the past 15 days.  It is contributing to the destabilization and decline in growth in the developed world that depends on stable trade.  U.S crude dropped below $50 to $49.61 yesterday. 
     JOLTS – January job Openings waiting for qualified workers fell to 4.998Million from 5.028M last month. 
    Target TGT laid off 1,700 workers on Tuesday as part of a previously announced round of cuts.
    Apple’s bonds have lost more than 3 percent since the end of January, almost twice the percent losses on Bank of America’s index of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds.
    The Average American’s Workweek in Feb was 34.6 hours.   Optimistically that means effectively more than half of all Americans now do part time work (less than 30 hrs per week).   Obama said the Unemployment Rate in Feb was 5.5%.  What if there was no Obama health care 30hr requirement and that 50% part time work force could work 40hrs/week or more.   What would the unemployment rate actually be without playing Obama’s games on who he thinks are just stupid Americans who must be lied to.  Unemployment, if everyone worked 40 hours, would increase (50%*(40-30)/ 40), or by 12.5% to exactly 20% unemployment in America today.  And that only is the unemployment that would be counted.  Many people now are taking early retirement or working “under the table” so they do not show up either.   In southern Italy and parts of Greece the underground economy is larger than the taxed economy.  That is one of the effects of wealth redistribution.
        Mar 9, 2015   S&P earnings have now turned about 2% negative for two consecutive quarters and more and more corporations will now give their balance sheets and income statements a thorough washing.  The losses that were hidden as capital investments and other things over the last six years will now be recognized as the losses they actually were.  Due to harassment by Jim Crammer and others, corporations play Jim’s crooked game and pretend revenue and earnings can grow indefinitely without interruption.   If they disappoint Crammer he bad mouths the management team.  Any semblance of corporate corner office honesty is punished seriously by Jim and his fired-up showmen.  That is why this bubble collapse and the coming Chinese collapse will be frightening to the investors who lose their shirts.   The more corruption and the higher the stock market pimps pump their target prices the longer the stock market run and the more economically disastrous the coming collapse. Some day the investors will get a lawyer and go after the people who demand and orchestrate the corporate cooking of the books and corruption from their positions in MSNBC and other Stupid Party controlled media.
     Intelligent and honest US Senators warned Iran and the rest of the world that the unilateral Executive Decisions of the current Lame Duck president can be cancelled by any future president or even Congress.  This president will be playing by himself in his sand box from now on since he has not learned to work with others.  
     Hanergy a Chinese solar company now sells at 95 times earnings.  The stock has advanced 600% in the past year and the company is now valued higher than Tesla.  This valuation along with China’s Alibaba and many other Chinese stocks are priced as ridiculously as the DOT.com bubble stocks when the market collapsed in 2000.  We expect the collapse of China’s stock market will be the biggest casualty this year.
     Jim Crammer said the market is being pulled down today by the Brazilian currency problems.  The part of his anatomy that gave him that explanation was obviously not his brain.  The real cause is partly the effect of the surge in the American dollar.  The strong dollar is raising US imports but more importantly it is hurting American exports. 
   Jim is also wrong saying falling oil prices are hurting the economy.  He has that backwards too; it is the slowing American economy, the increasing supply of American oil, and the rising dollar that is causing the dollar denominated oil price to decline.  
        Mar 9, 2015   The Wall Street Journal today advocates, Embrace the Bear Market.  That is how to Survive A Bear Market.  Since October 16, 2014 we first detected the latest bear market.  Then we estimated it would take a full year for the media to catch on because that was what it took the last time.  But the media is already coming to the realization only five months after our warning.   We have had sell signals before that were short term such as May 2010 and August of 2011 when there were major selloffs but they lasted only a week or two.  This one was a major sell signal that is a classic NYSE breakdown.  The weakest always breakdown first so one should never look to the DOW or NASDAQ for a timely sell signal.
 
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Friday, March 6, 2015

Mar 6, 2015 The economic advisors of morally and financially bankrupt MSNBC still do not understand why employment is growing while GDP is stagnant at under 3%. Once again the reason is because Obama recently created a free health care entitlement as an incentive for corporations to create more part time hamburger-helper workforces rather than professional workforces. After all, the new Stupid Party supporters making the decisions tend to be morons like their MIT healthcare advisor, not intelligent, honest or professional. The Obama incentive is to have the American workers pick up the health care costs if your employees work less than 30 hours a week. Therefore corporations are dropping the hours of employees and must hire one new unskilled hamburger helper for every three jobs cut from 40hr to 30 hrs per week. Hence employment is growing while American productivity and labor costs are flat. This is what our socialist leaning European allies did starting right after WWII.



 

   Only about 62% of able bodied Americans are employed today and the percentage is declining.  It is in part due to the baby boomers retiring and living longer.   It is also the trend American socialists are picking up from the Europeans.  That trend in France is to work fewer hours, vacation 5 to 9 weeks a year, and retire by age 60.  It is even more relaxed in Southern Europe and in South America and that is the primary cause of the poorer laid back populations in the more socialist countries.  Much of the world is still in the Stone Age ruled by religious terrorist socialists.   In those cultures if you are born with a brain you are doomed.  Socialists think the government owes them cradle to grave economic support.  Communists think the government owes them everything, period.  Communist countries put their brilliant people, their diamonds, in prisons.  Socialist countries allow their brilliant people to emigrate to free enterprise countries where the brilliant can make their fortunes and send money home to help the families they left behind.  Free enterprise countries attract brilliant people because there are few government restrictions preventing the process of Creative Destruction that allows corporations to continually reinvent themselves.

     In 1994 the Stupid Party led by the Bill and Hillary Clinton asked Castro to let his people free.  Castro then literally sent his worst prison criminals to America.  It took over a year to stop the resulting crime wave at the cost to American workers of about 2000 of the Cuban criminals being fed and bedded in American prisons at the expense of American workers. 


 

That is what the “1994 Clinton Stupid Party” did then and now 21 years later the “Obama Stupid Party” wants to do again.   Not learning from experience is part of the definition of stupidity.   Castro is not going to let his “yearning to be free” people go to America because they will tell us just how rotten the socialist system can get.   But Obama wants another wave of stupid criminal Cuban immigrants to bolster the ranks of his Stupid Party.     Illegal immigrants are not at all like the poor independent thinking and hard working immigrants that sought freedom and legally requested asylum in America prior to the rise of the American “Stupid Party” under Jimmy Carter.  Illegal immigrants only speak Spanish and burn the American flag.  Good legal immigrants love America and their freedom.  Remember it was also the Stupid Party under Jimmy Carter that first used the terms stupid and senile to describe President Regan and his Republican party.  President Regan had ended the “cold war” that since president Kennedy had maintained peace using the insane Socialist/Communist principle of “mutually assured nuclear destruction.”  Regan was from the “Smart Party” and welcomed the USSR and China back into the fold of smart rational people.

  The criminals that Obama wants to now allow in demonstrated their disrespect for American laws by violating the laws from the very start.  They have illegally entered America showing their disrespect for the American laws as well as disrespect for our American flag and language.   They go directly on welfare and food stamps and register and vote for the “Stupid Party.”  They refuse to learn our language or laws.   Many of their children however would eventually find the American dream and quit the Stupid Party.  But they are also bringing the drugs, the gangs, and their criminal lords who have spread death and destruction everywhere south of our border.  The Obama “Stupid Party” shows no limit to its incompetence and stupidity.

     The Obama Stupid Party entitlement programs do not attract any poor outcasts yearning to breath free.  Entitlement programs attract the lazy, the violent, the criminals, and the evil of the world who think they are owed a living.  It is a whole new level of stupidity for Obama’s “Stupid Party.”  In the past America only attracted people yearning to work and breath free.  

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
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Monday, March 2, 2015

Mar 6, 2015 We seem to have entered a second long leg down. This time though we may have an opportunity to bottom fish. The price of oil will plummet as soon as all the storage capacity is filled and oil companies will be forced to shut down some production sharply for a few months. There will also be environmental damages to contend with. But finally the truth will be known that demand is also down and energy prices will be low for months. As the level of our economic river gets lower corporations and banks will start hitting the rocks. By fall we still estimate the stock market will be down 20% to 30% from the high and only then will MSNBC and other “Stupid Party” news/economics stations/commentators start to become embarrassed by their stupid leftist disinformation meant to support the “Stupid Party.”


Mar 5, 2015   Here is a highly probable scenario behind the coming economic collapse due to Quantitative Easing, QE.  Let’s exaggerate the numbers to make it very clear.  Boosting the money supply with QE makes business seem more profitable and very cash rich.  And with the low 0% or -0.2% interest on loans make borrowing profitable and that builds corporation cash.   Corporations can use that cash to repurchase say 20% of their own stock.  That boosts the corporate profit per share by 18% even if they lost 2% that year.  If green mailers like Karl Icahn raid the company they can give all the stockholders the cash as a 20% payout or a dividend.  It should be obvious to anyone with any intelligence that these abuses are going on right now and that kind of apparent economic health is just what happens at a major market top.  It is the reason why QE will cause another great recession or a great depression very soon.  It is what Japan has been doing since 1990 and only makes things worse.  But with Europe starting QE now we face a worldwide economic disaster.  Mergers and acquisitions peak as the cash flooded stock market peaks.  Alibaba is the monument to the coming market collapse.  Note that Japan’s economy in constant dollars has gone nowhere since 1990 when they started their QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D
   As we have pointed out in the past, there is one broad stock market index and then there are several indices that only include certain stocks what advisors think are the best of the pack.   The DOW is noted for picking the long term winners and the NASDAQ is noted for picking the fastest growth stocks which tend to be the new technology stocks.  And quite naturally the selective indices have a self-fulfilling characteristic that when every advisor agrees something is a long term growth stock they buy the stock and it becomes a growth stock for as long as there is a bull market.  But a bear market is another thing.  There is no way to predict the depths of desperate selling that goes on when investment advisors and their herd of followers who are on margin and heavily in debt are wiped out.  And if you use the DJI or the Nasdaq you will be the last to know the end has begun.  No you need to look at the canary in the mine shaft, the canary that is sensitive and will feint before the explosive gases are dangerous to humans.  Sectors are helpful but they continually rotate in and out of favor.  It is the broader market that covers all sectors and includes the weak as well as the strong that is the best predictor.  If you look at the DJI and the NASDAQ you will not know the direction of the whole market until it is too late.  Those two indices warn of a bear market about a year after the broad NYSE gives the warning.   So far the NYSE has been flat-lined since July 2014 and it gave us a sell signal in early Fall when most stocks tumbled. 
   But there are other economic indicators as well.  We pointed out that every recession or depression is preceded by falling commodity and energy prices because production or demand is slowing up faster than supply.   That is happening now in this Obama recession and it only means Obama is causing a deeper recession or an economic depression.   If Herbert Hoover had blamed his predecessor he might have won reelection just like Obama has done.   Now who will Obama blame since all his domestic and international policies have been tested and have failed.   Obama has worn out all his excuses.
   Oil production is still going up while the price of oil is still going down, because only low profit wells are being turned off so that it is still profitable to pump.  In the mean time the oil is filling every empty tanker and many cargo hulls in the world and there are many empty ships because the trade or raw materials (coal, copper, aluminum, iron)  has plummeted as China and other countries face a growing recession or depression.  That stored oil will suppress oil and gas prices until most of the stored oil is sold.
   It should be fairly obvious now that QE is a destroyer of economies and creates temporary wealth for the rich and does nothing to help the middle class or the poor.  That is the legacy of Obama’s “Stupid Party.”  It may well yet impoverish all Americans and it makes us more vulnerable in a religiously insane nuclear armed world.
 
Challenger job cuts in Feb were 20.9% surging to their highest level in nearly two years as U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 53,041 jobs from their payrolls now. 
About 20,000 jobs of those are related to the oil glut.
Initial Claims 02/28 jumped to 320K from 313K last time.
Continuing Claims 02/21 rose to 2421K from 2401K.
Productivity-Rev. Q4 2014 declined -2.2% not the -1.8% previously reported when Obama was releasing optimistic numbers.  He degrades the numbers after they are first released so that he can inflate the number in the next report.  The stupid people who always vote for leftists don’t know the difference.
Unit Labor Costs -Rev Q4 rose much more than Obama previously reported, 4.1% not 2.7%.
Factory Orders Jan declined -0.2% after declining -3.5% in December 2014 when Obama reported record Christmas growth in orders and sales.   In summary, Obama is probably about as honest as Putin.  But so far Obama at least does not murder his critics.  He only harasses them with the IRS and every other means he can hide from investigation.
 
The noted Swedish leftist leader, Mr. Jagland, has been fired from the Nobel Prize
committee chairmanship after overseeing a number the controversial awards, including the one made to Barack Obama in 2009.   Rahm Emanuel even had criticized the Obama award and told the committee at the time that it was 'fawning'.   That was before Rahm fell out of favor.  No Nobel Prize chairman has ever been ousted since the awards were first made in 1901.   Now the world asks will the NPC demand the return of the prizes in time before Barack Obama toss it in his garbage along with the busts of the American founding fathers and Winston Churchill.
 
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) should have used the nuclear option to eliminate the illegal immigrant amnesty filibuster in response to the Stupid Party votes to block debate on the House-passed Homeland Security bill.   That is nothing akin to blocking Presidential appointments.   Is Mitch getting stupid too?  He had better smarten up soon.  Every Republican that blocked the nuclear option should be identified.  The Stupid Whigs apparently included Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, and Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho among others.  Abraham Lincoln would not have tolerated a corrupted bill that tacked on Obama’s latest vote buying initiative.
 
Mar 4, 2015   Accounting gimmicks are as prevalent now as they were during the DOT-COM bubble of 2000 under Clinton.  For instance even though current Construction Spending in Jan 2015 was down sharply (-1.1%) and still below the level in 2005,  yet a housing construction stock such as W.P. Carey (WTC) is now 180% higher than its stock price was in 2005 due to the accounting manipulations used to justify today’s high stock market prices.  That’s correct!   WTC ‘s price is 2.8 times as high now as it was during the  Obama-Frank liar-loan stimulated housing boom of 2005-2006.   Yes sir folks, this is Obama 2015 stock market bubble is like the Clinton 2000 bubble.  Today stock valuations are more than 100% to 120% higher than we expect they will be in about another year.  We expect a 50% to 60% drop and if Obama puts the USA into a war or a depression the market could be 90% lower before we can elect a competent president.   And this bubble is true not just of construction but every component of the economy.
The Apple Pay service is reported to be fraught with fraud.   Apple apparently shirks responsibility for the fraud happening on Apple Pay.  This is another less than useless application similar in value to the first GPS system Tim Cook foisted on the public.
Mar 3, 2015   From all indications the market correction is about ready to resume.
IServices Index Feb 52.8 down from 53.5 and manufacturing is doing no better under the “Stupid Party.”  Remember it was the “Stupid Party” that called President Regan senile and stupid.  Now most people have had another Jimmy Carter disaster reincarnated as Barrack Hussein Obama.
   House Senate and House Democrats decide to back a short term bill funding Homeland Security.  The Democrats agree with Republicans that the Supreme Court must first decide on the legality of Obama’s order.  What is hilarious is that the Republicans were willing to take the fall for that ridiculous Obama attachment to the bill with the following headline, “Boehner backs down in DHS funding.”  That headline shows the face saving required for the “Hysterically Stupid Obama Administration.”  Jimmy Carter had the most “Historically Stupid Administration.”  And Jimmy’s Stupid Party mocked President Regan who ended the Cold War and the treat of Russian Nuclear Holocaust.  Now Obama’s Stupid Party is planning to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons in just ten years.   That would cause an arms race in the Middle East and undoubtedly a hot nuclear war.  Obama has made gangster Putin look smart in comparison.  Putin had one of his critics bumped off the other day and such brazen stupidity will no doubt be the beginning of the end for Putin. 
    Bloomberg analysts predict profit at S&P 500 companies will drop 4.9 percent in the current quarter.   Warren Buffett is apparently preparing for a crash. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio,” has breached the sell-alert status indicating a collapse may happen at any moment.   We warned in September-October 2014 that the market was very much like September 2007 and that the market was peaking and the mainstream would probably call the recession late in 2015 similar to their late call in 2008 after the market was already down over 20%. 
Mar 2, 2015   The Fed seems to be just waiting now for the stock market bubble to burst.  To identify when the stock market bubble is ready to burst, Warren Buffet, who was on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning, said that any company that continually puts out projections of earnings improvements and continually beats them by a penny or more can almost be guaranteed to be using accounting games to manipulate their stated earnings and is part of the final bubble.  That was the practice that created the stock market bubble of the conglomerates of the 1960s and it is still being done.  But Buffet said his firm does not do it.  It is not illegal and he said he has sometimes partners in buy out deals with firms that practice those shaky accounting games.  When asked if it is going on right now he said yes just look at the earnings being reported.   He said he uses a conglomerate structure to manage his multiple companies together but he does not use debt leverage and the bubble accounting games to manipulate his firm's performance.
Feb 28, 2015   Greenspan threw a wet blanket on Obama’s economic growth BS.  He called the overall economic data for the United States "not strong."  The jobs growth is due to the work week hour reduction.  There is evidence of weakened productivity, he said.  "That is a key statistic which tells how the economy is functioning."
"The Stock Market looks great", but the economy is like "The Late Stages of the Great Depression."  Productivity is not increasing fast enough so the economy is shrinking.  The FED is not the cause and cannot help but they are behind the stock markets being oversold at record highs.  Obama entitlements are crowding out savings and hence slowing capital investments causing productivity to decline and the stagnant economy.    Together they are an imbalance that will resolve itself because the FED has stopped pumping up the stock market. 
Hence the stock market bubble no longer has the FED supporting it and will have the FED reverse the process as soon as the market declines.  The Fed already has the lower phony Obama unemployment numbers it wanted that is caused by the reduction of weekly working hours to under 30 hours as is required in order for a corporation’s employees to be eligible for free health care.  Presently the FED is only waiting for stock market to decline first so that the FED does not get the blame for the stock market’s decline.
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