Market forces May 29,
Durable goods orders
The biggest socialist liars:
Whether Hitler's big lies or former Soviet Union economic reports, socialism ghetto economics, freedom, and reports on their 5-year plans have always been falsified. We really have no idea right now what is going on in China for instance. We in the free world demand honesty. If our president is caught in a lie we disown him as we did with President Nixon even if they themselves are innocent of anything but the lie. But socialism is government run like a ghetto where it is image not substance that counts. So right up to their collapse we foolishly believed the Soviets were doing fine because we were taught honesty was the best policy and we knew that without honesty our financial system would collapse. But honesty would destroy socialism. Socialism is the criminal society one finds in ghettos where the flashy car and some money gives you all the influence you need and you get what you want by taking it from others.
Socialism is based in dishonesty:
Socialist economics is the economics of dishonesty, extortion(taking not giving), and outright fraud. The socialist countries are where 90% of e-mail fraud, illicit drug production, computer viruses, human trade in flesh; environmental destruction and starvation are centered. The starvation of the world is all in socialist countries. (Note that in order to declare that the US is a major polluter the socialist radicals have had to declare the CO2 we exhale as pollution.) Now this ghetto socialist economics has entered the US government administration. Here is how the Obama socialists think they are fooling Americans. They have government departments report optimistic numbers. We expect our elected government to tell the truth and so we are gullible and we think the socialists are making progress just like they expect us to think. Then when the report is obsolete they often correct their last number and think no one will notice and indeed Pravda doesn't care to report that to us. So then the distortion of the fraud is effectively erased and since the old numbers now look worse the new estimates are made to look even worse. So that allows them to report a new fake optimistic number each month because the socialist economists clearly think Americans are looking for a free ride like the typical populations that adore leaders like Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, and Mao.
Yesterday they reported more phony numbers:
First lets get the numbers straight because they don't want us to even know what they are talking about. Durable goods orders are down over 25% year to year. If you look at what they reported last year you see from the data scatter that the Bush administration erred on the pessimistic side by at least 2% in 2008 which means by definition that the decline this month in this indicator would have been less (optimistic) by 2% because it is quoted relative to the statistically low number reported last year.
The phony 1.9 percent increase reported by the Commerce Department Thursday in followed a revised 2.1 percent drop in March that was more than twice as large as originally reported. So March was already down 1% but they revised March down another 1.1% so that they could increase April by 1.1% to make it a +1.9% change this month to impress Americans with the magic of ghetto socialist economics. In reality the entire gain is due to Bush pessimism last year of 2% plus 1.1 % administration fraud. It is a total of 3.1% distortion of reality towards bullishness. Without that distortion we would be 1.9% -3.1% or
-1.2% for April not +1.9%.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_mnord.htm
You can see that they expected a 0.5% real improvement durable goods orders and they got a -1.2% worsening instead. So the truth of -1.2% would have been bearish but the socialists spun it to be +1.9%.
http://www.martincapital.com/main/econ_cyc.htm
You need to look at the real numbers to know the truth:
You see the real picture is that we are down 25% year to year and ghetto socialist economics has us looking at a +1.9% statistical artifact that is 50% based on fraud. You can think of it this way. We are weighing an elephant and it lost over 25% since last year. But instead Pravda tells us it improved 1.9% in April relative to how much it weighed in March relative to March of 2008 after we revised March down 1.1%. The statistic is an apples to oranges +0.8% artifact (April vs. March) caused by statistical variation that is then doubled by revising March lower by 1.1%. Look at the charts yourself and you can see that April is not improving and the situation is far worse than when the DOT-Com bubble burst in 2001. But they convinced investors to be very bullish yesterday. But the government corruption gets even worse.
Ghetto socialism creates dishonest occupations:
In the ghetto the local criminal organization gives the people protection, food, drugs, sex, pornography bookie betting, human degrading entertainment and the productivity is all in the governance sectors run by the drug and other crime organizations. The honest pay protection as a tax to help finance the ghetto government. That is how growth occurs in socialist governments. Under the leftist socialist ghetto-like dictatorial governments the growth comes from and in the criminal government itself. Everything becomes liberalized (You can even sell your young women as wives to foreigners). With that in mind lets look at Durable goods orders again.
Durable goods orders under current US ghetto socialism:
Orders for autos and a surge in government defense spending overshadowed the declines in private sector business equipment that signal real investment and indicating that the private sectors will be the last areas of the economy to recover. The stimulus package is only stimulating spending where the ghetto socialist government is throwing the money. America does not need or want legalized drugs, legalized pornography, legalized late abortions, sexual deviates legally running naked on city streets (i.e. San Francisco), gay marriages pushed in American schools, ACORN thugs preventing checkers from requiring proof of voter identity, nationalization of auto and financial sectors and other spending guided by empty headed leftist ghetto socialist radicals and anti-nuclear energy loony tunes. We see the results and the money is not flowing into productive private enterprise. Instead durable goods orders show most of the money is flowing into and expanding government web of dishonest, immoral, unethical, coercive and formerly criminal activities now sponsored by government. They still encourage mortgages for people who cannot afford the house that Congressman Rangel gave them when the US Senate Banking Commission run by ghetto socialists started and encouraged the criminal fraud that last year brought down our capitalist economy.
More than 616,000 loans were hit with foreclosure actions in the first 3 months of this year. Despite all the socialist hand wringing the number of foreclosure actions just started hit a record high. The National Delinquency Survey released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association reported the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in foreclosure starts since it began keeping records. It was a 27% increase in lenders initiated foreclosures from the 1.08% rate during the last three months of 2008 and a 36% rise from the first quarter of 2008. 616,000 mortgages were hit with foreclosure actions.
Delinquencies, the stage in which borrowers have fallen behind on payments but have not yet reached the point where they've received intent-to-foreclose notices, also hit record highs at 9.12% of all existing loans last quarter. Can you believe that… 9.12% toxic waste still just coming on to the bank's books! We were told the toxic waste was less than 1%!
The ugly report was not unexpected due to socialist interventions. According to Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist, "We suspected that the [foreclosure] numbers were artificially low due to various state and local moratoria, the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac halt on foreclosures, and various company-level moratoria."
Market Outlook
Our analysis does not change every other day as you typically see on the NBC/GE/Pravda network. A new ominous wrinkle may be the rise of interest rates that will delay economic recovery and could lead to socialist bankruptcy.
Last night Asian markets were up. China’s markets were 1.7%, India up 2.3%, and Japan up 0.8 %.
After seriously dropping yesterday, European markets are up today in the range of 1% to 1.6% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start higher today.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Market drops retracing fizzled ghetto economics rally
Market forces May 28,
Coffee fad enters a downward spiral:
This year Colombia's coffee output is expected to decline 4.3% to the lowest level since the small harvest of 2001. Prices rose sharply after farms were battered by heavy rainfall. Higher prices raise the costs of the product and reduce the profit margins and sales of the coffee roasters. This is driving up prices just as the coffee fad that Starbucks started is fading.
Ghetto economics is a failure:
Ghetto economics is Congressman Rangel’s idea that anyone in the ghetto who wants a house should be able to own one even if they can’t afford it. It is what caused the financial meltdown. It is the idea that credit cards should not have to be paid off if you can’t afford them because the credit card company must have deceived and tempted you unfairly. It is Obama’s idea that socialists should be able to spend whatever they want and hard working people and other countries should pay for socialism by buying US Treasuries. Well ghetto economics is why the people in ghettos live in poverty. Once one subscribes to ghetto economics interest rates start going up and soon all the ghetto free cash goes to paying off interest.
Stocks fell Wednesday, giving back the gains from the previous session, after a sharp rise in Treasury yields and the benchmark 10-year bond jumped to a 6-month high. The Dow Jones industrial fell 2%. The S&P 500 lost 1.9% and the NASDAQ composite slid 1.1%. There is a growing concern that GM will not be able to avoid bankruptcy and all the government stimulus funds will just stimulate fraud and political corruption. The word on the street is that the only correlation found in the elimination of car dealerships is that if the owner is Republican it is likely to be eliminated. The sell off gained momentum in the afternoon. The difference in yields between Treasury two-year and 10-year notes widened to a record as surging sales of Obama socialist debt overwhelmed the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low. Higher interest rates make debt a relentless burden as the historic cost of Obama socialist programs and wealth redistribution increases the national deficit. Obama has taken the credit card debt game of American Ghetto economics and made it the cornerstone of his national socialist financial solution. The FED will likely have to print money even faster to keep Treasury rates from rising too fast. But printing money also raises rates by causing inflation and that then requires the printing of more money to offset the decrease in value of the currency. That leads only to hyperinflation. The truth is that rates will rise unless the Treasury exclusively uses printed cash because the auction method requires bids, and the bidders want higher rates of return due to the erosion of the US dollar. Socialism is nothing more than politically correct ghetto economics.
Hedge funds are loaded with worthless assets:
Part of the reason the stock market is dropping is because the unregulated hedge funds can say their assets have appreciated based on some model they use when in fact the market for their illiquid assets has disappeared. In that way the Hedge fund can claim paper profits and take their high management fees as the hedge fund becomes a worthless shell. The reason they get away with it is that like Bernie Madoff's investors… hedge fund investors are usually wealthy and ashamed to talk about being so gullible to be taken to the cleaners by hedge funds. And hedge funds can just lock you in if too many people want out. Pequot Capital Management plans to liquidate their hedge funds because they claim a federal investigation has “cast a cloud over the firm.” Pequot, started in 1986 and Pequot’s assets peaked at about $15 billion in 2001, making it the world’s largest hedge-fund managed at the time. It was only $3.47 billion in paper value as of May 15, down from $4.3 billion in November. Pequot Partners claim they returned an average of 16.8% paper profits since its inception 22 years ago, and they always took less than 40% in management fees. Yet the funds, now only have about $2 billion in disposable assets, and they say they will return a “significant amount” of cash to investors by June. The rest will be paid out over the next several months, pending a year-end audit and liquidation of harder-to-sell toxic assets. Perhaps trillions of dollars in hedge fund losses still remain hidden as paper profits. This unregulated hedge fund fraud situation could rival the toxic mortgage scam. Forced liquidation forces the recognition of lost value of the leverages collateral and it tends to drive the stock market lower because that is a loss of investment cash reserves on the sidelines.
Obama program to rid banks of bad loans has failed:
The Legacy Loans Program, crafted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., is part of the $1 trillion Public Private Investment Program the Obama administration announced in March as a way to encourage banks to sell securities and loans weighing on their balance sheets to investors. This effort was viewed as central to tackling the financial crisis. But prospective buyers and sellers have expressed reticence to the FDIC about participating for fear the program's rules will change with Obama’s leftist hostility to Wall Street. All the rich people who funded the Obama campaign are suddenly the enemy.
Market Outlook
We now will wait for more signs that the coming pull back is close to a bottom. Our analysis does not change every other day as you typically see on the NBC/GE/Pravda network. A new wrinkle may be the rise of interest rates which will delay economic recovery and could lead to national democrat socialist bankruptcy.
Last night Asian markets were up. China’s markets were closed, India up 1.3%, and Japan up 0.1 %.
European markets are down in the range of -1% to -1.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start off flat again today. Obama administration’s failure to sell debt plan could bring the stimulus package to a halt or worse yet it could drain the cash from the productive private enterprise economy.
Market forces May 28,
Coffee fad enters a downward spiral:
This year Colombia's coffee output is expected to decline 4.3% to the lowest level since the small harvest of 2001. Prices rose sharply after farms were battered by heavy rainfall. Higher prices raise the costs of the product and reduce the profit margins and sales of the coffee roasters. This is driving up prices just as the coffee fad that Starbucks started is fading.
Ghetto economics is a failure:
Ghetto economics is Congressman Rangel’s idea that anyone in the ghetto who wants a house should be able to own one even if they can’t afford it. It is what caused the financial meltdown. It is the idea that credit cards should not have to be paid off if you can’t afford them because the credit card company must have deceived and tempted you unfairly. It is Obama’s idea that socialists should be able to spend whatever they want and hard working people and other countries should pay for socialism by buying US Treasuries. Well ghetto economics is why the people in ghettos live in poverty. Once one subscribes to ghetto economics interest rates start going up and soon all the ghetto free cash goes to paying off interest.
Stocks fell Wednesday, giving back the gains from the previous session, after a sharp rise in Treasury yields and the benchmark 10-year bond jumped to a 6-month high. The Dow Jones industrial fell 2%. The S&P 500 lost 1.9% and the NASDAQ composite slid 1.1%. There is a growing concern that GM will not be able to avoid bankruptcy and all the government stimulus funds will just stimulate fraud and political corruption. The word on the street is that the only correlation found in the elimination of car dealerships is that if the owner is Republican it is likely to be eliminated. The sell off gained momentum in the afternoon. The difference in yields between Treasury two-year and 10-year notes widened to a record as surging sales of Obama socialist debt overwhelmed the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low. Higher interest rates make debt a relentless burden as the historic cost of Obama socialist programs and wealth redistribution increases the national deficit. Obama has taken the credit card debt game of American Ghetto economics and made it the cornerstone of his national socialist financial solution. The FED will likely have to print money even faster to keep Treasury rates from rising too fast. But printing money also raises rates by causing inflation and that then requires the printing of more money to offset the decrease in value of the currency. That leads only to hyperinflation. The truth is that rates will rise unless the Treasury exclusively uses printed cash because the auction method requires bids, and the bidders want higher rates of return due to the erosion of the US dollar. Socialism is nothing more than politically correct ghetto economics.
Hedge funds are loaded with worthless assets:
Part of the reason the stock market is dropping is because the unregulated hedge funds can say their assets have appreciated based on some model they use when in fact the market for their illiquid assets has disappeared. In that way the Hedge fund can claim paper profits and take their high management fees as the hedge fund becomes a worthless shell. The reason they get away with it is that like Bernie Madoff's investors… hedge fund investors are usually wealthy and ashamed to talk about being so gullible to be taken to the cleaners by hedge funds. And hedge funds can just lock you in if too many people want out. Pequot Capital Management plans to liquidate their hedge funds because they claim a federal investigation has “cast a cloud over the firm.” Pequot, started in 1986 and Pequot’s assets peaked at about $15 billion in 2001, making it the world’s largest hedge-fund managed at the time. It was only $3.47 billion in paper value as of May 15, down from $4.3 billion in November. Pequot Partners claim they returned an average of 16.8% paper profits since its inception 22 years ago, and they always took less than 40% in management fees. Yet the funds, now only have about $2 billion in disposable assets, and they say they will return a “significant amount” of cash to investors by June. The rest will be paid out over the next several months, pending a year-end audit and liquidation of harder-to-sell toxic assets. Perhaps trillions of dollars in hedge fund losses still remain hidden as paper profits. This unregulated hedge fund fraud situation could rival the toxic mortgage scam. Forced liquidation forces the recognition of lost value of the leverages collateral and it tends to drive the stock market lower because that is a loss of investment cash reserves on the sidelines.
Obama program to rid banks of bad loans has failed:
The Legacy Loans Program, crafted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., is part of the $1 trillion Public Private Investment Program the Obama administration announced in March as a way to encourage banks to sell securities and loans weighing on their balance sheets to investors. This effort was viewed as central to tackling the financial crisis. But prospective buyers and sellers have expressed reticence to the FDIC about participating for fear the program's rules will change with Obama’s leftist hostility to Wall Street. All the rich people who funded the Obama campaign are suddenly the enemy.
Market Outlook
We now will wait for more signs that the coming pull back is close to a bottom. Our analysis does not change every other day as you typically see on the NBC/GE/Pravda network. A new wrinkle may be the rise of interest rates which will delay economic recovery and could lead to national democrat socialist bankruptcy.
Last night Asian markets were up. China’s markets were closed, India up 1.3%, and Japan up 0.1 %.
European markets are down in the range of -1% to -1.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start off flat again today. Obama administration’s failure to sell debt plan could bring the stimulus package to a halt or worse yet it could drain the cash from the productive private enterprise economy.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Test rally fizzled yesterday on low volume
Market forces May 27,
Investors started buying when NBC/GE/Pravda used the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rise to 54.9 from 40.8 to say the worst is over. Studies have shown that consumer confidence is not a predictor of the stock market. To see how consumer confidence really looks go to:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
Treasurys have begun to sell off as they are considered less of a safe haven. Systemic risks are rising again and interest rates are rising.
Foreclosure home sales are up in many parts of the country and prices continue to decline. Prices in 20 major metropolitan areas dropped by 18.7 percent in March when compared with March a year ago, according to the Standard & Poor’s Home Price Index that was released Tuesday. That was about the same as February and shy of January’s record plunge of 19 percent. That is almost a straight-line rate, as we would expect at an economic inflection point. It confirms our analysis that uses the fact that the inflection point occurs about half way to the bottom of a major crisis. Sales have fallen 38 percent from the peak in 2005. The Mortgage Bankers Association said that the highest home loan rates in more than two months drained demand for refinancing last week, dragging total U.S. mortgage applications to the lowest level since early March. The cost of borrowing between banks is on the rise again. Foreclosures have picked up again and that is an indication that we may not even be half way through this decline. The recession is just starting to bite. Seventeen of the cities tracked by the S&P index declined from February. That was an improvement over the previous month, when prices in all 20 areas fell. But here again the turning point has not yet been reached because that would be when half the areas improve and half decline.
Roubini, who is widely credited for predicting the current economic turmoil, spoke at the Seoul Digital Forum. "We are not yet at the bottom of the U.S. and the global recession," said Roubini. "There is still too much optimism that a recovery is just around the corner," said Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor, an independent economic research firm. Roubini said the outlook for Asia was more positive than for Europe, Japan and the United States, thanks to stronger fundamentals. Once the recession ends, "U.S. economic growth is going to be below potential for at least two years," he said, amid multiple imbalances in the housing sector and the financial system, and the rise of public debt.
Staples 1Q profit is down 33% but Pravda is now spinning that as positive by lowering their estimates.
Market Outlook
Yesterday both our Re-Spiral based indicators went negative. The momentum of the market was not enough to keep us waiting for a pullback to buy in again. This is ominous in that buying on a 10% to 15% market pullback is no longer a given conclusion. We now will wait for more signs that the coming pull back is close to a bottom. Our analysis does not change every other day as you typically see on the NBC/GE/Pravda network.
NBC/GE/Pravda's Jim Cramer reversed himself again yesterday evening. There is nothing wrong with changing one's mind but with him he absolutely destroys investors by whip sawing them. We are going to start tracking Jim Cramer's market analysis using the D OW at the closing before his recommendation.
He said:
Sell May 21 @ 8293 because market leadership was lost.
Buy May 26 @ 8474 because leaders had pulled back 10% and then rose. -2.2% in 2 business days
Last night Asian markets were up sharply. China up 1.7%, Hong Kong up 5.3%, India up 3.8%, and Japan up 1.3%.
European markets are up in the range of -0.1% to +0.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start off flat again today. Lately optimistic investors are encouraged to buy earlier in the day and funds and day traders then take profits later. The volume yesterday was very low and the market was up early and then it looked like boredom set in.
Investors started buying when NBC/GE/Pravda used the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rise to 54.9 from 40.8 to say the worst is over. Studies have shown that consumer confidence is not a predictor of the stock market. To see how consumer confidence really looks go to:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
Treasurys have begun to sell off as they are considered less of a safe haven. Systemic risks are rising again and interest rates are rising.
Foreclosure home sales are up in many parts of the country and prices continue to decline. Prices in 20 major metropolitan areas dropped by 18.7 percent in March when compared with March a year ago, according to the Standard & Poor’s Home Price Index that was released Tuesday. That was about the same as February and shy of January’s record plunge of 19 percent. That is almost a straight-line rate, as we would expect at an economic inflection point. It confirms our analysis that uses the fact that the inflection point occurs about half way to the bottom of a major crisis. Sales have fallen 38 percent from the peak in 2005. The Mortgage Bankers Association said that the highest home loan rates in more than two months drained demand for refinancing last week, dragging total U.S. mortgage applications to the lowest level since early March. The cost of borrowing between banks is on the rise again. Foreclosures have picked up again and that is an indication that we may not even be half way through this decline. The recession is just starting to bite. Seventeen of the cities tracked by the S&P index declined from February. That was an improvement over the previous month, when prices in all 20 areas fell. But here again the turning point has not yet been reached because that would be when half the areas improve and half decline.
Roubini, who is widely credited for predicting the current economic turmoil, spoke at the Seoul Digital Forum. "We are not yet at the bottom of the U.S. and the global recession," said Roubini. "There is still too much optimism that a recovery is just around the corner," said Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor, an independent economic research firm. Roubini said the outlook for Asia was more positive than for Europe, Japan and the United States, thanks to stronger fundamentals. Once the recession ends, "U.S. economic growth is going to be below potential for at least two years," he said, amid multiple imbalances in the housing sector and the financial system, and the rise of public debt.
Staples 1Q profit is down 33% but Pravda is now spinning that as positive by lowering their estimates.
Market Outlook
Yesterday both our Re-Spiral based indicators went negative. The momentum of the market was not enough to keep us waiting for a pullback to buy in again. This is ominous in that buying on a 10% to 15% market pullback is no longer a given conclusion. We now will wait for more signs that the coming pull back is close to a bottom. Our analysis does not change every other day as you typically see on the NBC/GE/Pravda network.
NBC/GE/Pravda's Jim Cramer reversed himself again yesterday evening. There is nothing wrong with changing one's mind but with him he absolutely destroys investors by whip sawing them. We are going to start tracking Jim Cramer's market analysis using the D OW at the closing before his recommendation.
He said:
Sell May 21 @ 8293 because market leadership was lost.
Buy May 26 @ 8474 because leaders had pulled back 10% and then rose. -2.2% in 2 business days
Last night Asian markets were up sharply. China up 1.7%, Hong Kong up 5.3%, India up 3.8%, and Japan up 1.3%.
European markets are up in the range of -0.1% to +0.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start off flat again today. Lately optimistic investors are encouraged to buy earlier in the day and funds and day traders then take profits later. The volume yesterday was very low and the market was up early and then it looked like boredom set in.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
N Korea nukes the world's hope for stability
Market forces May 26,2009
German exports and corporate spending plunged in the first quarter, dragging Europe’s largest economy into its deepest slump on record. Exports dropped 9.7 percent from the fourth the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 3.8 percent from the previous three months, the office said, confirming initial estimates we provided.
Oil fell below $60 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured partly by a firmer U.S. dollar and expectations an OPEC meeting later this week would keep the producer group's output steady. London Brent crude was down $1.31 today at $58.90. President Obama plans to institute sharply higher taxes on oil products to reduce dependence on oil by 80%. The higher taxes will reduce overall energy consumption and cover some of the cost of developing alternative renewable and nuclear sources of energy. France started in the late 1970s and is now 85% independent of oil. China and America also have the world's largest supply of coal, far exceeding the worlds oil reserves. Clean coal combustion is now being actively developed.
The indicators we follow appear more ominous. We were estimating a 10% to 15% market pullback. It is now appearing as though the markets could go down over 30% and set a new low this summer. For our spiral (parabolic SAR) analysis we use fast, median, and slow cycles. The fast and medium turned negative and Tuesday may be the day even the slow index turns negative while the MACD index confirms a sell indication.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda's credibility has been very low, as in recent weeks they have put a lot of lipstick on some ugly equities recommendations to pump up stock prices. Signs were they wanted to dump their inflated investments on you and I. Well perhaps they are now done unloading because the "Wall Street money" now seems to be going negative. The end of the May will tell us if US employee 401 plans are now growing fast enough to avoid a new market low. Even though more people are being laid off and those forced into retiring are not being counted as unemployed, the current lack of diversion of cash into good real estate opportunities helps support stock prices. But as real estate strengthens equities will once again appear less attractive than real estate at current high stock PE multiples. Most corporations have losses not earnings. Reported PE ratios are fictitiously low because they are based on future earnings estimates pulled from NBC/Pravda's hats and various parts of other analysts' anatomy.
Last night Asian markets were down sharply. China down -0.8%, Hong Kong down - 0.8%, India down -2.4%, and Japan down -0.4%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.9% to -1.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start today flat. Lately optimistic investors are encouraged to buy earlier in the day and funds and day traders then sell off.
German exports and corporate spending plunged in the first quarter, dragging Europe’s largest economy into its deepest slump on record. Exports dropped 9.7 percent from the fourth the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 3.8 percent from the previous three months, the office said, confirming initial estimates we provided.
Oil fell below $60 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured partly by a firmer U.S. dollar and expectations an OPEC meeting later this week would keep the producer group's output steady. London Brent crude was down $1.31 today at $58.90. President Obama plans to institute sharply higher taxes on oil products to reduce dependence on oil by 80%. The higher taxes will reduce overall energy consumption and cover some of the cost of developing alternative renewable and nuclear sources of energy. France started in the late 1970s and is now 85% independent of oil. China and America also have the world's largest supply of coal, far exceeding the worlds oil reserves. Clean coal combustion is now being actively developed.
The indicators we follow appear more ominous. We were estimating a 10% to 15% market pullback. It is now appearing as though the markets could go down over 30% and set a new low this summer. For our spiral (parabolic SAR) analysis we use fast, median, and slow cycles. The fast and medium turned negative and Tuesday may be the day even the slow index turns negative while the MACD index confirms a sell indication.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda's credibility has been very low, as in recent weeks they have put a lot of lipstick on some ugly equities recommendations to pump up stock prices. Signs were they wanted to dump their inflated investments on you and I. Well perhaps they are now done unloading because the "Wall Street money" now seems to be going negative. The end of the May will tell us if US employee 401 plans are now growing fast enough to avoid a new market low. Even though more people are being laid off and those forced into retiring are not being counted as unemployed, the current lack of diversion of cash into good real estate opportunities helps support stock prices. But as real estate strengthens equities will once again appear less attractive than real estate at current high stock PE multiples. Most corporations have losses not earnings. Reported PE ratios are fictitiously low because they are based on future earnings estimates pulled from NBC/Pravda's hats and various parts of other analysts' anatomy.
Last night Asian markets were down sharply. China down -0.8%, Hong Kong down - 0.8%, India down -2.4%, and Japan down -0.4%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.9% to -1.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start today flat. Lately optimistic investors are encouraged to buy earlier in the day and funds and day traders then sell off.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Warning! Indicators say stay out of equities at this time
Market forces May 23,
We had recommended investors take profits and get completely out of the market over the past few weeks but also to be prepared to buy into the next decline. However, the indicators we follow are beginning to appear more menacing. We were contemplating a 10% to 15% pullback. It is now appearing as though the markets could go down over 30% and set a new low. For our spiral (parabolic SAR) analysis we use fast, median, and slow cycles. The fast and medium turned negative and Tuesday could be the day the slow index turns negative as the MACD index switches from buy to sell. It appears highly probable that the anticipated buying opportunity will be cancelled on Tuesday before there was any actual buying.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda's credibility has been very low, as in recent weeks they have put a lot of lipstick on some ugly recommendations. Signs were they wanted to unload their inflated investments on you and I. Well perhaps they are now done unloading because the "Wall Street money" now seems to be going negative.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around with about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottoms. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their domination of the three branches of American government.
We are on the sidelines now until the market re-tests its lows. NBC/GE/Pravda /Jim Cramer this week said sell stocks and get into real estate. But he changes his advice every day. His technical advisor called the last bottom and said to get out three weeks ago.
We had recommended investors take profits and get completely out of the market over the past few weeks but also to be prepared to buy into the next decline. However, the indicators we follow are beginning to appear more menacing. We were contemplating a 10% to 15% pullback. It is now appearing as though the markets could go down over 30% and set a new low. For our spiral (parabolic SAR) analysis we use fast, median, and slow cycles. The fast and medium turned negative and Tuesday could be the day the slow index turns negative as the MACD index switches from buy to sell. It appears highly probable that the anticipated buying opportunity will be cancelled on Tuesday before there was any actual buying.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda's credibility has been very low, as in recent weeks they have put a lot of lipstick on some ugly recommendations. Signs were they wanted to unload their inflated investments on you and I. Well perhaps they are now done unloading because the "Wall Street money" now seems to be going negative.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around with about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottoms. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their domination of the three branches of American government.
We are on the sidelines now until the market re-tests its lows. NBC/GE/Pravda /Jim Cramer this week said sell stocks and get into real estate. But he changes his advice every day. His technical advisor called the last bottom and said to get out three weeks ago.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Jim Cramer says, "Obama is destroying Wall Street. Take profits and get out before Memorial Day."
Market forces May 22,
The Market appears to have finished topping and the summer doldrums are approaching. Even Jim Cramer has begun telling investors to take stock profits and get out and into real estate now. The real estate market will have to recover first. That is not an option it is a requirement. The toxic waste of the mortgage industry must be eliminated before the economy can improve. Therefore by definition the real estate market will recover before the stock market or the economy. And money flowing from stocks into real estate will probably cause a retest of the stock market lows.
How many years will it take to recover from the raving socialist and their global warming idiots who just destroyed our automotive industry and gave it to the unions that demanded 90% pensions with retirement at age 55. Now they want the most invasive forms of socialism that the world has ever seen. These lunatic socialists who are chasing windmills are also putting American veterans and American thinkers on their potential terrorist lists. They asked Britain to put an obscure San Francisco talk show host on Britain's banned-from-Britain list. These raving Obama socialists want the news media to give equal talk show time to bone head socialists who no one listens to so that the radio industry will go bankrupt like the socialist newspapers and lose their audience like government subsidized socialist Pravda propaganda stations. No one wants to have to listen to these lunatic socialist and global warming idiots so they insist big government subsidize them by taxing productive and intelligent Americans.
The raving socialist and idiot supporters have only begun to destroy and nationalize the American economy. When destroying industries they first claim they saved them and then fill the ranks of management with their socialist political hacks, union bosses, ACORN thugs, and tax cheats.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda's socialist raving power drunk lunatics are lying as much now as they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to match Pravda's exact expectations. One broght up the analogy of the Planet of the Apes. That describes them perfectly.
Today they try to arbitrarily lower every stock and economic expectation to beat them. What wonderful surprises they continually give us. Let's face it NBC/GE/Pravda sold its soul a long time ago. They are a collection of broken clocks and change their minds often so that they can always lie and claim they got the market top and bottoms correctly. Yesterday Jim Cramer said he had predicted that Obama was one of five potential stock market hazards and we should all take our profits before this weekend. Well his broken clock seems it may have the right time on it today.
We estimate that America is about half way to a housing turn around with about a year to go to pass this recession bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the lunatic socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their domination of the three branches of American government.
Japan now says the worst of their Socialist full employment job-for-a-lifetime experiment is over and their socialist depression has finally bottomed after only 19 years. Just think we could still have 18 more years of Democrat-socialist Obama type carnage if voters re-elect them.
We are on the sidelines now until the market re-tests its lows. NBC/GE/Pravda /Jim Cramer said sell stocks and get into real estate. But he changes his advice every other day.
Last night Asian markets were down again. China down -0.5%, Hong Kong down - 0.8%, and Japan's down -0.4%.
European markets are up in the range of 0.9% to 1% mid way through their day after closing down almost 3% yesterday.
US futures indicate the markets will start out flat today.
The Market appears to have finished topping and the summer doldrums are approaching. Even Jim Cramer has begun telling investors to take stock profits and get out and into real estate now. The real estate market will have to recover first. That is not an option it is a requirement. The toxic waste of the mortgage industry must be eliminated before the economy can improve. Therefore by definition the real estate market will recover before the stock market or the economy. And money flowing from stocks into real estate will probably cause a retest of the stock market lows.
How many years will it take to recover from the raving socialist and their global warming idiots who just destroyed our automotive industry and gave it to the unions that demanded 90% pensions with retirement at age 55. Now they want the most invasive forms of socialism that the world has ever seen. These lunatic socialists who are chasing windmills are also putting American veterans and American thinkers on their potential terrorist lists. They asked Britain to put an obscure San Francisco talk show host on Britain's banned-from-Britain list. These raving Obama socialists want the news media to give equal talk show time to bone head socialists who no one listens to so that the radio industry will go bankrupt like the socialist newspapers and lose their audience like government subsidized socialist Pravda propaganda stations. No one wants to have to listen to these lunatic socialist and global warming idiots so they insist big government subsidize them by taxing productive and intelligent Americans.
The raving socialist and idiot supporters have only begun to destroy and nationalize the American economy. When destroying industries they first claim they saved them and then fill the ranks of management with their socialist political hacks, union bosses, ACORN thugs, and tax cheats.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda's socialist raving power drunk lunatics are lying as much now as they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to match Pravda's exact expectations. One broght up the analogy of the Planet of the Apes. That describes them perfectly.
Today they try to arbitrarily lower every stock and economic expectation to beat them. What wonderful surprises they continually give us. Let's face it NBC/GE/Pravda sold its soul a long time ago. They are a collection of broken clocks and change their minds often so that they can always lie and claim they got the market top and bottoms correctly. Yesterday Jim Cramer said he had predicted that Obama was one of five potential stock market hazards and we should all take our profits before this weekend. Well his broken clock seems it may have the right time on it today.
We estimate that America is about half way to a housing turn around with about a year to go to pass this recession bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the lunatic socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their domination of the three branches of American government.
Japan now says the worst of their Socialist full employment job-for-a-lifetime experiment is over and their socialist depression has finally bottomed after only 19 years. Just think we could still have 18 more years of Democrat-socialist Obama type carnage if voters re-elect them.
We are on the sidelines now until the market re-tests its lows. NBC/GE/Pravda /Jim Cramer said sell stocks and get into real estate. But he changes his advice every other day.
Last night Asian markets were down again. China down -0.5%, Hong Kong down - 0.8%, and Japan's down -0.4%.
European markets are up in the range of 0.9% to 1% mid way through their day after closing down almost 3% yesterday.
US futures indicate the markets will start out flat today.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Rule by raving socialist lunatics and idiots.
Market forces May 21,
FDR turned Hoover's financial crisis into the first great depression because FDR was so excited by the strides made by the Communists and the National Socialists during the financial crisis that he introduced just enough socialism and wealth redistribution taxation to run the American economy completely into the ground. Obama just had a 30% bear market rally. FDR had an 80% bear market rally. NBC/Pravda would like an FDR type 80% rally now, but to have that the socialists must first give us a 90% FDR type stock market decline. Then the 80% rally after the 90% decline gets us back to -82% (if they understood 5th grade math). That to the lunatic socialists is what they call a phenomenal 80% FDR growth achievement.
The Obama socialists are raving idiots. They say FDR brought about the greatest period of growth in American history and NBC/Pravda repeats their nonsense. We can't call it a lie because it is far too stupid to be a lie. Yes, after first destroying 90% of the American economy we had WWII and continuous growth until 1951 when the American economy wiped out FDR's losses and finally broke even again. That is how the Socialists calculate their 10 fold economic growth in less that 20 years. First they had to lose 90% of the American wealth. Then they had to abandon socialism and go to war against the National Socialists in German and Italy and to nuke the Emperor's Japan. Finally the American socialists got back from FDR's 90% loss to zero loss in 1951. That is what they call their 10000% (ten-fold) gain for American socialism under FDR. It took twenty years for America to recover from FDR's socialism. Therefore base on socialist mathematics we have proof that Obama socialists are raving idiots, QED.
How many years will it take to recover from the raving socialist idiots who just destroyed our automotive industry and gave it to the unions that demanded 90% pensions with retirement at age 55. Now they want the most invasive forms of socialism that the world has ever seen. These raving lunatic socialists who are chasing windmills are also putting American veterans and American thinkers on their potential terrorist lists. They asked Britain to put an obscure California talk show host on Britain's potential terrorist list so that he cannot enter Britain. These raving Obama socialists want the news media to give equal talk show time to bone head socialists (who no one listens to) so that the radio industry will either go bankrupt like the socialist newspapers or lose their audience like socialist NBC/GE/Pravda. Ultimately the socialists want to subsidize the media so they can run it.
These raving socialist lunatics have only begun to destroy and nationalize the American economy. By destroying industries they first can claim they saved them and then the socialists can fill the ranks of management with their political hacks, union bosses, and tax cheats.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda lied again and said there was a mystery sell-off at the end of the day yesterday whereas the sell-off started an hour after the opening and ran slowly all day on high volume. Investor 401 type plans contributed a positive $12billion cash flow into funds in April for the first positive cash flow in almost a year. But that was a drop in the bucket compared with the capital requirements of corporations.
Banks and corporation see the current market prices as possibly the highs for this year and hence they are selling stock to raise cash. Banks also need to sell stock because they have lost so much and still have so many toxic assets that they need more investor equity just to stay solvent.
If this were a bull market not a bear market rally top, then we would see cash rich corporations devouring smaller profitable companies. Instead we see cash strapped corporations trying to raise more capital to remain solvent.
Investor confidence is now at a high. The earliest forecast date that socialists are spinning for a stock market bottom has now slipped to August 2009. And because their economic forecast recovery keeps slipping we can expect their stock market bottom to slip further. In fact sane investors would say the stock market bottom could be as late as February 2010 now and the economic recovery could now start as late as August 2010. And then after that we enter the dark ages of Obama's $12 Trillion deficit resolution.
We are on the sidelines now until the market re-tests its lows. NBC/GE/Pravda /Jim Cramer said sell stocks and get into real estate. But he changes his advice every day.
Last night Asian markets were down sharply. China down -1.5%, Hong Kong down - 1.6%, India down -2.3%, and Japan's down -0.9%.
European markets are down in the range of -1.6% to -2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start down today by about 0.3%.
NBC/GE/Pravda's socialist raving power drunk lunatics are lying as much now as they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to match Pravda's expectations. Today they try to arbitrarily lower every expectation to beat every one.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around with about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the lunatic socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their domination of the three branches of American government.
FDR turned Hoover's financial crisis into the first great depression because FDR was so excited by the strides made by the Communists and the National Socialists during the financial crisis that he introduced just enough socialism and wealth redistribution taxation to run the American economy completely into the ground. Obama just had a 30% bear market rally. FDR had an 80% bear market rally. NBC/Pravda would like an FDR type 80% rally now, but to have that the socialists must first give us a 90% FDR type stock market decline. Then the 80% rally after the 90% decline gets us back to -82% (if they understood 5th grade math). That to the lunatic socialists is what they call a phenomenal 80% FDR growth achievement.
The Obama socialists are raving idiots. They say FDR brought about the greatest period of growth in American history and NBC/Pravda repeats their nonsense. We can't call it a lie because it is far too stupid to be a lie. Yes, after first destroying 90% of the American economy we had WWII and continuous growth until 1951 when the American economy wiped out FDR's losses and finally broke even again. That is how the Socialists calculate their 10 fold economic growth in less that 20 years. First they had to lose 90% of the American wealth. Then they had to abandon socialism and go to war against the National Socialists in German and Italy and to nuke the Emperor's Japan. Finally the American socialists got back from FDR's 90% loss to zero loss in 1951. That is what they call their 10000% (ten-fold) gain for American socialism under FDR. It took twenty years for America to recover from FDR's socialism. Therefore base on socialist mathematics we have proof that Obama socialists are raving idiots, QED.
How many years will it take to recover from the raving socialist idiots who just destroyed our automotive industry and gave it to the unions that demanded 90% pensions with retirement at age 55. Now they want the most invasive forms of socialism that the world has ever seen. These raving lunatic socialists who are chasing windmills are also putting American veterans and American thinkers on their potential terrorist lists. They asked Britain to put an obscure California talk show host on Britain's potential terrorist list so that he cannot enter Britain. These raving Obama socialists want the news media to give equal talk show time to bone head socialists (who no one listens to) so that the radio industry will either go bankrupt like the socialist newspapers or lose their audience like socialist NBC/GE/Pravda. Ultimately the socialists want to subsidize the media so they can run it.
These raving socialist lunatics have only begun to destroy and nationalize the American economy. By destroying industries they first can claim they saved them and then the socialists can fill the ranks of management with their political hacks, union bosses, and tax cheats.
Market Outlook
NBC/GE/Pravda lied again and said there was a mystery sell-off at the end of the day yesterday whereas the sell-off started an hour after the opening and ran slowly all day on high volume. Investor 401 type plans contributed a positive $12billion cash flow into funds in April for the first positive cash flow in almost a year. But that was a drop in the bucket compared with the capital requirements of corporations.
Banks and corporation see the current market prices as possibly the highs for this year and hence they are selling stock to raise cash. Banks also need to sell stock because they have lost so much and still have so many toxic assets that they need more investor equity just to stay solvent.
If this were a bull market not a bear market rally top, then we would see cash rich corporations devouring smaller profitable companies. Instead we see cash strapped corporations trying to raise more capital to remain solvent.
Investor confidence is now at a high. The earliest forecast date that socialists are spinning for a stock market bottom has now slipped to August 2009. And because their economic forecast recovery keeps slipping we can expect their stock market bottom to slip further. In fact sane investors would say the stock market bottom could be as late as February 2010 now and the economic recovery could now start as late as August 2010. And then after that we enter the dark ages of Obama's $12 Trillion deficit resolution.
We are on the sidelines now until the market re-tests its lows. NBC/GE/Pravda /Jim Cramer said sell stocks and get into real estate. But he changes his advice every day.
Last night Asian markets were down sharply. China down -1.5%, Hong Kong down - 1.6%, India down -2.3%, and Japan's down -0.9%.
European markets are down in the range of -1.6% to -2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start down today by about 0.3%.
NBC/GE/Pravda's socialist raving power drunk lunatics are lying as much now as they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to match Pravda's expectations. Today they try to arbitrarily lower every expectation to beat every one.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around with about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the lunatic socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their domination of the three branches of American government.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Cramer admits NBC/Pravda "Big Lies"
Market forces May 20,
Jim Cramer yesterday announced a soon to be published report that indicates Jim Cramer's picks are sometimes profitable. Jim Cramer is not sure it is correct. Neither is anyone else. But Jim Cramer admitted much more. He admitted he believes it is NBC/GE/Pravda's duty to lie by spinning everything to be positive so more investors can be lured prematurely into a fake NBC/Pravda/Cramer bull market. He did so in examples as to why the Wall Street Journal and other media hurt his fake bull market by reporting the plain truth without spin. By NBC/GE/Pravda's lying in this manner it is possible for insiders to profit because the insiders can then bet against the public and profit by getting out before the public catches on, simply by saying they changed their mind… "Tough luck to us peon individual and pension fund investors."
There were actually three examples of truth telling yesterday but Cramer chose to condemn just the Wall Street Journal's audacity to report the record low housing starts rejecting the pressure to join NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda in spinning big lies. First, Hewlett-Packard Co CEO Mark Hurd said he’s basing the latest company forecast on the expectation that the economy won’t improve in coming months. Such bold straight talk from the world’s largest maker of personal computers and printers was punished as much as 5.1 percent in late trading for admitting that sales haven’t shown any signs of rebounding. HP said that projected annual revenue will drop 4 percent to 5 percent, to the lower end of a forecast range they had given in February. In other words the truth was the sales situation got worse since February.
Second, The S&P 500 Banks Index slumped 4.4 percent after the Moody’s report that U.S. commercial property prices are now down almost 23 percent from the October 2007 peak and transactions have dropped as much as 80 percent, according to Moody’s/REAL Indices issued today. Commercial property prices fell another 1.7 percent (a 20.4% annual rate) in March from February showing no let up in the slope of the decline. "Moody’s expects continued weakness and possibly further declines in volume in the coming months,” the ratings company said in a statement.
Third, record low construction starts stirred honest concerns about the economy and Cramer's big "bull market" lie. Data showing that housing construction fell to a record low in April dashed hopes that the housing market has hit bottom because it exposed there wasn't even a hint of an inflection point yet much less a bottom. You see the NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda big lie has been to claim that evidence of any inflection point (slow down in the rate of the indicator's free fall collapse) was a sign of a bottom). Many analysts see a recovery in housing from its three-year slide as necessary before the economy can begin to rebound and an inflection point indicates the slide is 50% over not 100% over as a bottom would indicate. The Commerce Department reported that construction of homes and apartments fell 12.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units, the lowest pace on records going back a half-century to when they started the records. It was 510K last month and analysts had expected it to increase by 3% to 527K this month but it declined 12.8% more instead.
Jim Cramer suggested the Wall Street Journal could have supported his NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda "bull market big lie" by spinning the accelerating housing price collapse as something good because housing inventories would decline faster. But falling home prices not only pinch consumers but also increase the toxic assets of the banks that hold the mortgages that are losing value.
The recent "Stress Test" was to assess the need for banks to increase their capital to cover the remainder of the residential and commercial property value slide. Obviously Geihtner and Bernacke do not believe the NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda "bull market lie."
Market Outlook
The Fear Index (VIX) is below 30 for first time since Sept. 19, 2008 indicating we are near a stock market top. The Volatility Index, which traces the prices at which investors are willing to buy and sell options on the Standard and Poor’s 500-stock index, tends to move down when investors are overconfident, just before a sharp stock market decline. Before the credit crisis hit VIX typically floated between 10 and 20. In May 2008, it was below 20 but during the worst of the economic crisis in October and November during the sharp sell-off it jumped to more than 80. Now once again investors appear to be overconfident and vulnerable to another sell-off.
In addition a comparison of current FED recovery forecasts with the February forecasts shows the forecast economic turn around slipped from Nov 2009 (forecast in Feb) to Jan 2010 (now being forecast) or a slip of two months over the elapsed period of just three months. Why is this important? It is important because that is how we estimate when the stock market will bottom. Typically the stock market bottoms up to six months before the economy bottoms. So in February when they forecast the economy would bottom in November we would then estimate that the stock market would bottom six months earlier or next month in June. But with the current economic forecast (especially the several months next year when they now predict the economy will not grow at all), the earliest forecast possible stock market bottom has now slipped to August 2009. And because the economic forecast recovery keeps slipping we can expect the stock market bottom to slip further as well. In fact the stock market bottom could be as late as February 2010 now and the economic recovery could now start as late as August 2010.
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were mostly lower. China down -0.9%, Hong Kong down - 0.4%, India down -1.8%, and Japan's market up +0.6%.
European markets are mixed in the range of -0.3% to +0.6% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start up about 0.3% today.
Cramer admits NBC/Pravda make "Big Lies" because he believes it is their duty to spin a positive rather than an honest forecast of financial markets.
They are lying as much now as they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to match Pravda expectations. Now every piece of news suspiciously beats expectations and inflection points are announced as though they are turning points. Hewett Packard was punished 4% yesterday for telling the truth and not going along with the NBC/Pravda "Big Lie."
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around and about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their complete control of the three branches of American government.
Jim Cramer yesterday announced a soon to be published report that indicates Jim Cramer's picks are sometimes profitable. Jim Cramer is not sure it is correct. Neither is anyone else. But Jim Cramer admitted much more. He admitted he believes it is NBC/GE/Pravda's duty to lie by spinning everything to be positive so more investors can be lured prematurely into a fake NBC/Pravda/Cramer bull market. He did so in examples as to why the Wall Street Journal and other media hurt his fake bull market by reporting the plain truth without spin. By NBC/GE/Pravda's lying in this manner it is possible for insiders to profit because the insiders can then bet against the public and profit by getting out before the public catches on, simply by saying they changed their mind… "Tough luck to us peon individual and pension fund investors."
There were actually three examples of truth telling yesterday but Cramer chose to condemn just the Wall Street Journal's audacity to report the record low housing starts rejecting the pressure to join NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda in spinning big lies. First, Hewlett-Packard Co CEO Mark Hurd said he’s basing the latest company forecast on the expectation that the economy won’t improve in coming months. Such bold straight talk from the world’s largest maker of personal computers and printers was punished as much as 5.1 percent in late trading for admitting that sales haven’t shown any signs of rebounding. HP said that projected annual revenue will drop 4 percent to 5 percent, to the lower end of a forecast range they had given in February. In other words the truth was the sales situation got worse since February.
Second, The S&P 500 Banks Index slumped 4.4 percent after the Moody’s report that U.S. commercial property prices are now down almost 23 percent from the October 2007 peak and transactions have dropped as much as 80 percent, according to Moody’s/REAL Indices issued today. Commercial property prices fell another 1.7 percent (a 20.4% annual rate) in March from February showing no let up in the slope of the decline. "Moody’s expects continued weakness and possibly further declines in volume in the coming months,” the ratings company said in a statement.
Third, record low construction starts stirred honest concerns about the economy and Cramer's big "bull market" lie. Data showing that housing construction fell to a record low in April dashed hopes that the housing market has hit bottom because it exposed there wasn't even a hint of an inflection point yet much less a bottom. You see the NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda big lie has been to claim that evidence of any inflection point (slow down in the rate of the indicator's free fall collapse) was a sign of a bottom). Many analysts see a recovery in housing from its three-year slide as necessary before the economy can begin to rebound and an inflection point indicates the slide is 50% over not 100% over as a bottom would indicate. The Commerce Department reported that construction of homes and apartments fell 12.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units, the lowest pace on records going back a half-century to when they started the records. It was 510K last month and analysts had expected it to increase by 3% to 527K this month but it declined 12.8% more instead.
Jim Cramer suggested the Wall Street Journal could have supported his NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda "bull market big lie" by spinning the accelerating housing price collapse as something good because housing inventories would decline faster. But falling home prices not only pinch consumers but also increase the toxic assets of the banks that hold the mortgages that are losing value.
The recent "Stress Test" was to assess the need for banks to increase their capital to cover the remainder of the residential and commercial property value slide. Obviously Geihtner and Bernacke do not believe the NBC/GE/Cramer/Pravda "bull market lie."
Market Outlook
The Fear Index (VIX) is below 30 for first time since Sept. 19, 2008 indicating we are near a stock market top. The Volatility Index, which traces the prices at which investors are willing to buy and sell options on the Standard and Poor’s 500-stock index, tends to move down when investors are overconfident, just before a sharp stock market decline. Before the credit crisis hit VIX typically floated between 10 and 20. In May 2008, it was below 20 but during the worst of the economic crisis in October and November during the sharp sell-off it jumped to more than 80. Now once again investors appear to be overconfident and vulnerable to another sell-off.
In addition a comparison of current FED recovery forecasts with the February forecasts shows the forecast economic turn around slipped from Nov 2009 (forecast in Feb) to Jan 2010 (now being forecast) or a slip of two months over the elapsed period of just three months. Why is this important? It is important because that is how we estimate when the stock market will bottom. Typically the stock market bottoms up to six months before the economy bottoms. So in February when they forecast the economy would bottom in November we would then estimate that the stock market would bottom six months earlier or next month in June. But with the current economic forecast (especially the several months next year when they now predict the economy will not grow at all), the earliest forecast possible stock market bottom has now slipped to August 2009. And because the economic forecast recovery keeps slipping we can expect the stock market bottom to slip further as well. In fact the stock market bottom could be as late as February 2010 now and the economic recovery could now start as late as August 2010.
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were mostly lower. China down -0.9%, Hong Kong down - 0.4%, India down -1.8%, and Japan's market up +0.6%.
European markets are mixed in the range of -0.3% to +0.6% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start up about 0.3% today.
Cramer admits NBC/Pravda make "Big Lies" because he believes it is their duty to spin a positive rather than an honest forecast of financial markets.
They are lying as much now as they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to match Pravda expectations. Now every piece of news suspiciously beats expectations and inflection points are announced as though they are turning points. Hewett Packard was punished 4% yesterday for telling the truth and not going along with the NBC/Pravda "Big Lie."
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around and about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from future American innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their complete control of the three branches of American government.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Danger, Socialists now run roughshod, the three branches of American Government.
How does one know when to sell, sell, and sell?
It is usually when NBC/GE/Pravda/Mad Money tells you buy, buy, buy. Lately it has also been when Warren Buffet is buying it. What a shame it is when we grow old and feeble minded and chase wind mills rather than build nuclear powerplants.
Market forces May 19,
German Investor confidence is at a three-year high as their economy dives. Sounds like they caught NBC/GE/Pravda Mad Money pig fever too. Despite investor over exuberance, Germany's financial markets regulator BaFin said today that it is highly likely that the worst is yet to come for the banks.
"It's highly probable that the banks will feel the full fury of the worst recession we've ever seen on their credit portfolios," Jochen Sanio, BaFin's president said Tuesday. Sanio further suggested German banks stock up their own capital to survive the "coming difficult economic phase."
Yet, Fast Money had a clown on yesterday saying how wonderful our banks will be under new socialist regulators taking from the rich and giving to the poor.
Investor confidence has not been this high in three years! Wasn't it about three years ago that investors now wish they had sold their stocks and their homes and moved into a nice apartment?
Market Outlook
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were up. China up 0.9%, Hong Kong up 3%, India up 0.1%, and Japan's market up 2.8%.
European markets are up in the range of +0.9% to +2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start up about 0.5% today. Pundits are doing their best to have the market top the January highs. That would make the next decline look less ominous. They are whipping the news to froth feeding investors false information much like they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to exceed expectations by about one penny. Now every piece of news suspiciously beats expectations and inflection points are announced as though they are turning points. For example, excluding non-recurring items, Home Depot revenue decreased 9.7% to $16.18 billion, earnings fell to 16% to 35 cents and same-store sales fell 10%. Yet the NBC/GE/Pravda sleeze spin this terrible news as unexpected proof that we are in a bull market!
If you go into a HD or LOW store today you will see that their selection is way down and their prices are non-competitive. You can now buy most of what HD and LOW sell for half their price by buying direct on the internet and get it delivered directly to the site. Most Home Depot merchandise is now made overseas and distribution centers now deliver kitchens, bedrooms, baths, appliances, and even the tools and hardware directly. Home Depot does not carry the stuff into your house any more. Only when you have HD and LOW deliver direct do you get that kind of help. But you can do that yourself at half the cost buying direct. Many companies like HD and LOW are becoming showrooms and more contractors and soon more shoppers will be buying direct. The showroom business model is a model of failure.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around and about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their complete control of the three branches of American government.
It is usually when NBC/GE/Pravda/Mad Money tells you buy, buy, buy. Lately it has also been when Warren Buffet is buying it. What a shame it is when we grow old and feeble minded and chase wind mills rather than build nuclear powerplants.
Market forces May 19,
German Investor confidence is at a three-year high as their economy dives. Sounds like they caught NBC/GE/Pravda Mad Money pig fever too. Despite investor over exuberance, Germany's financial markets regulator BaFin said today that it is highly likely that the worst is yet to come for the banks.
"It's highly probable that the banks will feel the full fury of the worst recession we've ever seen on their credit portfolios," Jochen Sanio, BaFin's president said Tuesday. Sanio further suggested German banks stock up their own capital to survive the "coming difficult economic phase."
Yet, Fast Money had a clown on yesterday saying how wonderful our banks will be under new socialist regulators taking from the rich and giving to the poor.
Investor confidence has not been this high in three years! Wasn't it about three years ago that investors now wish they had sold their stocks and their homes and moved into a nice apartment?
Market Outlook
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were up. China up 0.9%, Hong Kong up 3%, India up 0.1%, and Japan's market up 2.8%.
European markets are up in the range of +0.9% to +2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start up about 0.5% today. Pundits are doing their best to have the market top the January highs. That would make the next decline look less ominous. They are whipping the news to froth feeding investors false information much like they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to exceed expectations by about one penny. Now every piece of news suspiciously beats expectations and inflection points are announced as though they are turning points. For example, excluding non-recurring items, Home Depot revenue decreased 9.7% to $16.18 billion, earnings fell to 16% to 35 cents and same-store sales fell 10%. Yet the NBC/GE/Pravda sleeze spin this terrible news as unexpected proof that we are in a bull market!
If you go into a HD or LOW store today you will see that their selection is way down and their prices are non-competitive. You can now buy most of what HD and LOW sell for half their price by buying direct on the internet and get it delivered directly to the site. Most Home Depot merchandise is now made overseas and distribution centers now deliver kitchens, bedrooms, baths, appliances, and even the tools and hardware directly. Home Depot does not carry the stuff into your house any more. Only when you have HD and LOW deliver direct do you get that kind of help. But you can do that yourself at half the cost buying direct. Many companies like HD and LOW are becoming showrooms and more contractors and soon more shoppers will be buying direct. The showroom business model is a model of failure.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around and about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their complete control of the three branches of American government.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Germany's Obama type socialist market economy has failed.
Market forces May 18,
Germany, Europe's largest economy and the world's largest exporter (still ahead of China) has seen its industrial orders and production plunge this year, but nobody predicted that the German economy would hit a wall and fall 6.7% year to year. The experts are predicting a 6% slump for the remaining year as well. But the country is facing an even bigger shock next year. "After the export recession there will be a recession in the domestic economy," said Johannes Muller, an analyst with DWS. The drop in exports will have an impact on unemployment, which is expected to rise beyond 4 million.
Tax shortfalls and two stimulus packages have blown a $500billion hole in the budget for each of the next four years. The German general election will be a consensus vote on whether Germany's Obama type socialist market economy model that seeks to balance private enterprise and state intervention, has failed.
Muller told Die Welt there was an illusion that things will go back to how they were before the crisis, when Germany in effect benefited from excessive US consumption. “I fear it will not be as easy as that."
US retail sales drop put a crimp in NBC/GE/Pravda/Obama’s recovery claims. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.4 percent last month, much worse than the flat reading economists expected. The April weakness followed a 1.3 percent drop in March that was also much worse than first estimated.
Market Outlook
Robert Prechter says dividend payouts, the ratio of share prices to earnings and dwindling cash at mutual funds mean U.S. equities may be expected to plunge as much as another 80 percent before the bear market ends.
The 43 percent drop by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since October 2007 did not take prices to levels needed to begin a bull market, according to Prechter. Prechter, the advocate of a theory of market analysis developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression, first achieved fame in 1987 for predicting that year’s crash two weeks before it occurred. He’s published a monthly newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, since 1979. He advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the market peaked in lat 2007.
“We have a long way to go to where the market may be at bear-market-bottom yields,” he said. The price-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 was about 60 at the end of last year, based on 2008 profits, according to data compiled by S&P. In prior bear-market lows, the measure sank to 6 or 7, Prechter said. “That gives you a flavor for how much the market’s still going to have to come down,” he said.
There are different measures of the price-to-earnings ratio. Yale University Professor Robert Shiller tallies the figure using 10 years of profits to smooth out short-term fluctuations. His current reading is about 15.7, near the historic average of 16.3 going back over the past 128 years, according to data on his Web site. Shiller’s P/E ratio got as low as 5.6 during the Great Depression. That would imply only another 60% drop coming not the additional 80% drop Prechter predicts.
Elliott Wave Theory holds that market trends follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps, or waves, forward, two steps back. In addition, the waves share a variety of features. The current trend toward saving and avoidance of debt is still leading to an economic depression and deflation, he said. Gold and oil prices are still under longer term downward pressure. Mutual fund managers have less than 5.6 percent of their assets in cash, showing there isn’t enough buying power to sustain a bull market rally in stocks. We have not seen this bear-market bottom yet, Prechter said.
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were chaos. China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.4%, India's election market was up 17.4%, and Japan's market was down 2.5%.
European markets are up in the range of 0.9% to +1.1% mid way through their day again reflecting US market futures activity.
US futures indicate the US markets will start up about 1% today.
Socialists are hoping for further signs that the housing collapse is decelerating which Pravda will then spin as a turn around when in fact it means we are at an inflection point about half way to the housing bottom.
Germany, Europe's largest economy and the world's largest exporter (still ahead of China) has seen its industrial orders and production plunge this year, but nobody predicted that the German economy would hit a wall and fall 6.7% year to year. The experts are predicting a 6% slump for the remaining year as well. But the country is facing an even bigger shock next year. "After the export recession there will be a recession in the domestic economy," said Johannes Muller, an analyst with DWS. The drop in exports will have an impact on unemployment, which is expected to rise beyond 4 million.
Tax shortfalls and two stimulus packages have blown a $500billion hole in the budget for each of the next four years. The German general election will be a consensus vote on whether Germany's Obama type socialist market economy model that seeks to balance private enterprise and state intervention, has failed.
Muller told Die Welt there was an illusion that things will go back to how they were before the crisis, when Germany in effect benefited from excessive US consumption. “I fear it will not be as easy as that."
US retail sales drop put a crimp in NBC/GE/Pravda/Obama’s recovery claims. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.4 percent last month, much worse than the flat reading economists expected. The April weakness followed a 1.3 percent drop in March that was also much worse than first estimated.
Market Outlook
Robert Prechter says dividend payouts, the ratio of share prices to earnings and dwindling cash at mutual funds mean U.S. equities may be expected to plunge as much as another 80 percent before the bear market ends.
The 43 percent drop by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since October 2007 did not take prices to levels needed to begin a bull market, according to Prechter. Prechter, the advocate of a theory of market analysis developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression, first achieved fame in 1987 for predicting that year’s crash two weeks before it occurred. He’s published a monthly newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, since 1979. He advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the market peaked in lat 2007.
“We have a long way to go to where the market may be at bear-market-bottom yields,” he said. The price-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 was about 60 at the end of last year, based on 2008 profits, according to data compiled by S&P. In prior bear-market lows, the measure sank to 6 or 7, Prechter said. “That gives you a flavor for how much the market’s still going to have to come down,” he said.
There are different measures of the price-to-earnings ratio. Yale University Professor Robert Shiller tallies the figure using 10 years of profits to smooth out short-term fluctuations. His current reading is about 15.7, near the historic average of 16.3 going back over the past 128 years, according to data on his Web site. Shiller’s P/E ratio got as low as 5.6 during the Great Depression. That would imply only another 60% drop coming not the additional 80% drop Prechter predicts.
Elliott Wave Theory holds that market trends follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps, or waves, forward, two steps back. In addition, the waves share a variety of features. The current trend toward saving and avoidance of debt is still leading to an economic depression and deflation, he said. Gold and oil prices are still under longer term downward pressure. Mutual fund managers have less than 5.6 percent of their assets in cash, showing there isn’t enough buying power to sustain a bull market rally in stocks. We have not seen this bear-market bottom yet, Prechter said.
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were chaos. China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.4%, India's election market was up 17.4%, and Japan's market was down 2.5%.
European markets are up in the range of 0.9% to +1.1% mid way through their day again reflecting US market futures activity.
US futures indicate the US markets will start up about 1% today.
Socialists are hoping for further signs that the housing collapse is decelerating which Pravda will then spin as a turn around when in fact it means we are at an inflection point about half way to the housing bottom.
Friday, May 15, 2009
In a free country a free thinker is not shouted down and mocked by NBC/GE/Pravda
Market forces May 15,
Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who as we did, forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that US equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites. He says Oil and US Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets. "It's not the start of a new bull market," said Prechter, chief executive at his research company Elliott Wave International. "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize," he told Reuters in a wide-ranging interview. " He added, "I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety."
Right now the forces are deflationary because no matter how fast we increase our money supply, when due to enormouse personal debt, hardly anyone is spending the money the velocity of the money is zero. And when the velocity is zero the money in circulation is zero.
The seriousness of the contraction is due to Obama's advocacy of socialism. FDR had the same problem because in the 1920s and 1930's socialism and communism were all the rage around Europe and on the American college campuses. But socialism only works until they run out of other people's money. Every country that has had socialism for more than 40 years goes down hill and soon cannot even feed itself much less advance technologically. That is why America has been the technological engine of the world. The technological center of the world moved from Paris to London and then to Berlin before finally moving to New York, Boston, silicon valley, and now toward the more capitalist American states in the South. Harvard, the bastion of communism has long lost its way and its greatest present namesake is Edward Kennedy.
The Brain drain:
When most of the world went socialist or even communist in the last century, America benefited from the most enormous brain drain the world had ever seen. The best and brightest people in socialist countries were being taxed, shouted down, harassed, robbed, beaten, and killed because they had minds of their own, money, and an education. In Cambodia the communists killed you if you wore glasses because they assumed you were educated and corrupted by knowledge of the evil of "capitalism". And so the best minds came to America because America was free and productive people could freely think, speak, and prosper.
Obama's socialism brings an end to that era of American leadership in the world and he is going around the world apologizing for America's past successes. Productive people do not allow themselves to be shouted down and then enslaved by socialists like Obama. America is no longer a free country. In America today NBC/GE/Pravda mocks people who are free thinkers. In America today free thinkers are shouted down on college campuses.
Atlas is beginning to shrug now in America and to throw off the weight of the world. If you do not know what that means then read, "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. Greenspan was America's last Objectivist FED chairman. The productive people of the world will not support or allow themselves to be enslaved by communists or socialists. Therefore Obama's socialism will likely cause a German Weimar Republic type economic collapse in America like when the socialist took Berlin and the technological center of the world fled from Berlin in Europe to American freedom. FDR fortunately abandoned socialism and opposed and cracked down on the Nationalist Socialists and the Communists.
In "Atlas Shrugged" the final brain drain is the retirement from America of productive people to the countryside and their refusal to participate further in any economy because of the persecution of productive free thinking people in all the socialist states of the world. Ayn Rand foresaw this more than fifty years ago.
Market Outlook
We are on the market sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were positive. China is up 0.2%, Hong Kong up 1.5%, India up 2.5%, and Japan's market is up 1.9%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.3% to -1% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start about 0.5%lower today.
Obama's plans to quickly socialized medicine this year will be so disruptive that it will likely have the effect of bankrupting most government programs and throwing America into a deep depression. The only hope now is that in 2010 Americans will vote out all the members of Congress advocating socialism.
Longtime technical analyst Robert Prechter, who as we did, forecast the 1987 stock market crash, predicted this week that US equities may plunge to half their lows hit in March as a deflationary depression bites. He says Oil and US Treasury bonds are also locked in long term bear markets. "It's not the start of a new bull market," said Prechter, chief executive at his research company Elliott Wave International. "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize," he told Reuters in a wide-ranging interview. " He added, "I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety."
Right now the forces are deflationary because no matter how fast we increase our money supply, when due to enormouse personal debt, hardly anyone is spending the money the velocity of the money is zero. And when the velocity is zero the money in circulation is zero.
The seriousness of the contraction is due to Obama's advocacy of socialism. FDR had the same problem because in the 1920s and 1930's socialism and communism were all the rage around Europe and on the American college campuses. But socialism only works until they run out of other people's money. Every country that has had socialism for more than 40 years goes down hill and soon cannot even feed itself much less advance technologically. That is why America has been the technological engine of the world. The technological center of the world moved from Paris to London and then to Berlin before finally moving to New York, Boston, silicon valley, and now toward the more capitalist American states in the South. Harvard, the bastion of communism has long lost its way and its greatest present namesake is Edward Kennedy.
The Brain drain:
When most of the world went socialist or even communist in the last century, America benefited from the most enormous brain drain the world had ever seen. The best and brightest people in socialist countries were being taxed, shouted down, harassed, robbed, beaten, and killed because they had minds of their own, money, and an education. In Cambodia the communists killed you if you wore glasses because they assumed you were educated and corrupted by knowledge of the evil of "capitalism". And so the best minds came to America because America was free and productive people could freely think, speak, and prosper.
Obama's socialism brings an end to that era of American leadership in the world and he is going around the world apologizing for America's past successes. Productive people do not allow themselves to be shouted down and then enslaved by socialists like Obama. America is no longer a free country. In America today NBC/GE/Pravda mocks people who are free thinkers. In America today free thinkers are shouted down on college campuses.
Atlas is beginning to shrug now in America and to throw off the weight of the world. If you do not know what that means then read, "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. Greenspan was America's last Objectivist FED chairman. The productive people of the world will not support or allow themselves to be enslaved by communists or socialists. Therefore Obama's socialism will likely cause a German Weimar Republic type economic collapse in America like when the socialist took Berlin and the technological center of the world fled from Berlin in Europe to American freedom. FDR fortunately abandoned socialism and opposed and cracked down on the Nationalist Socialists and the Communists.
In "Atlas Shrugged" the final brain drain is the retirement from America of productive people to the countryside and their refusal to participate further in any economy because of the persecution of productive free thinking people in all the socialist states of the world. Ayn Rand foresaw this more than fifty years ago.
Market Outlook
We are on the market sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were positive. China is up 0.2%, Hong Kong up 1.5%, India up 2.5%, and Japan's market is up 1.9%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.3% to -1% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start about 0.5%lower today.
Obama's plans to quickly socialized medicine this year will be so disruptive that it will likely have the effect of bankrupting most government programs and throwing America into a deep depression. The only hope now is that in 2010 Americans will vote out all the members of Congress advocating socialism.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Obama's Socialist Tax Plan Kills Hope Of A Quick Recovery
Market forces May 14,
Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, is a professor at Harvard and a member of The Wall Street Journal's board of contributors. Yesterday he said,
"The barrage of tax increases proposed in President Barack Obama's budget could, if enacted by Congress, kill any chance of an early and sustained recovery.
Historians and economists who've studied the 1930s conclude that the tax increases passed during that decade derailed the recovery and slowed the decline in unemployment. That was true of the 1935 tax on corporate earnings and of the 1937 introduction of the payroll tax. Japan did the same destructive thing by raising its value-added tax rate in 1997.
The current outlook for an economic recovery remains precarious. This is no time for tax increases that will reduce spending by households and businesses. And despite the proposed tax increases, the government's new spending and transfer programs would cause the annual budget deficit in 2019 to exceed $1 trillion, or 5.7% of GDP (it is 12.3% this year).
CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf testified before the Senate Finance Committee on May 7 that the cap-and-trade price increases would cost the average household roughly $1,600 a year.
It's not too late for Mr. Obama to put these tax increases on hold. If he doesn't, Congress should protect the recovery and the longer-term health of the U.S. economy by voting down this enormous round of higher taxes."
Market Outlook
Last night's Asian results were negative. China is down 0.9%, Hong Kong down 3.1%, India is down 1.2%, and Japan's market is down 2.65%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.1% to -1% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start fractionally lower today.
The foreclosure tsunami caused by well meaning socialist intervention could mean the bear market does not end until next year. The backlog of foreclosures builds up like a huge wave as the socialist try to slow the settlement process. Our advice is now to cherry pick back into the market as the market declines 15% to 30% from recent highs.
Mr. Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan, is a professor at Harvard and a member of The Wall Street Journal's board of contributors. Yesterday he said,
"The barrage of tax increases proposed in President Barack Obama's budget could, if enacted by Congress, kill any chance of an early and sustained recovery.
Historians and economists who've studied the 1930s conclude that the tax increases passed during that decade derailed the recovery and slowed the decline in unemployment. That was true of the 1935 tax on corporate earnings and of the 1937 introduction of the payroll tax. Japan did the same destructive thing by raising its value-added tax rate in 1997.
The current outlook for an economic recovery remains precarious. This is no time for tax increases that will reduce spending by households and businesses. And despite the proposed tax increases, the government's new spending and transfer programs would cause the annual budget deficit in 2019 to exceed $1 trillion, or 5.7% of GDP (it is 12.3% this year).
CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf testified before the Senate Finance Committee on May 7 that the cap-and-trade price increases would cost the average household roughly $1,600 a year.
It's not too late for Mr. Obama to put these tax increases on hold. If he doesn't, Congress should protect the recovery and the longer-term health of the U.S. economy by voting down this enormous round of higher taxes."
Market Outlook
Last night's Asian results were negative. China is down 0.9%, Hong Kong down 3.1%, India is down 1.2%, and Japan's market is down 2.65%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.1% to -1% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start fractionally lower today.
The foreclosure tsunami caused by well meaning socialist intervention could mean the bear market does not end until next year. The backlog of foreclosures builds up like a huge wave as the socialist try to slow the settlement process. Our advice is now to cherry pick back into the market as the market declines 15% to 30% from recent highs.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Standard & Poor’s Index price/earnings reached its most expensive level in seven years relative to earnings.
While the market has recently risen earnings have declined and stocks are now the most expensive they have been in seven years based on earnings. We told you that weeks ago and the media is just reporting it.
See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_per.htm
Market forces May 12,
US stocks retreated yesterday. New shares will continue to flood the market dropping prices as Capital One Financial Corp., U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp. sell shares to repay government bailout funds. Ford plans to sell 300 million common shares to raise capital also. They all want to sell before the bear market crashes again.
The latest estimate of the deficit has it coming in at $1.84 trillion, representing a massive 13% of gross domestic product in the current 2009 fiscal year that ends on Sept. 30. Two dollars is being spent by big government for every dollar it taxes. The administration intends to raise taxes but plans to run $7 Billion in deficits or six times as much as President Bush went into the red in his two terms.
The lows in a bear market are usually associated with substantial negative developments in earnings, the economy, or in world events. They become capriciously variable and damaging to the long-term psychology and discipline of many investors. The failure of even the best advisors encourages investors to question the viability of the market economy itself. Consequently the fear and uncertainty causes massive withdrawal of many smaller investors. Those bear market lows are typically followed by powerful bear market rallies, which then sweep away the short sellers pulverizing even the most shrewd investors in time for fresh declines. That cycle of decline, followed by hope, followed by disillusionment, leads to aversion of quarterly statements, and ultimately leads to complete abandonment of the stock market by a large percentage of investors.
The final decline of a bear market tends to be a massive investor abandonment based on a conclusion that stocks are simply bad investments. Abandonment is beyond the stages of fear and panic and is rooted in despair and disillusionment. Investors abandon stocks at the end of a bear market because stock and investment pop stars such as Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow repeatedly prove themselves to be unreliable and disappointing. Half of the American investors abandoned stocks in the 1970s but they were followed by a fresh generation that has relied more on mutual funds. But the funds are now failing to perform as well.
Bear market lows can become enormously more and more oversold before recovering. Then the vigorous bear market rallies off of those lows further frustrate smaller investors because they don’t own the junk and high risk stocks that tend to be the meat and potatoes of bear market rallies. And then at the very top of the bear rally in junk, Jim Cramer says something like “the depression is over, the economy is improving, and this is a bull market not a bear rally” so that many investors buy in again at the market's top only to face yet another steep decline and a deep sense of personal failure an betrayal by all bullish market advisors. According to Warren Buffet this current bear market should be over within five years so he is buying as fast as investors continue to give him their money. He was down 38% for the year and he admits we are still in a bear market.
Market Outlook
Emerging-market stocks fell the most in two weeks after disappointing sales dragged down technology shares and lower oil reduced the earnings prospects for energy companies. The oilfield equipment industry cost increase from rising debt payments and falling oil prices has led to a quarterly profit slump.
Last night's Asian results were mixed. China is up 1.4%, Hong Kong is up 0.4%, and Japan's market was down 1.6%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.7% to +0.2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start flat today as corporations sell shares to raise capital and as stocks are now the most expensive they have been in seven years. Our advice is to cherry pick back into the market as the market declines 10% to 15% from recent highs.
See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_per.htm
Market forces May 12,
US stocks retreated yesterday. New shares will continue to flood the market dropping prices as Capital One Financial Corp., U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp. sell shares to repay government bailout funds. Ford plans to sell 300 million common shares to raise capital also. They all want to sell before the bear market crashes again.
The latest estimate of the deficit has it coming in at $1.84 trillion, representing a massive 13% of gross domestic product in the current 2009 fiscal year that ends on Sept. 30. Two dollars is being spent by big government for every dollar it taxes. The administration intends to raise taxes but plans to run $7 Billion in deficits or six times as much as President Bush went into the red in his two terms.
The lows in a bear market are usually associated with substantial negative developments in earnings, the economy, or in world events. They become capriciously variable and damaging to the long-term psychology and discipline of many investors. The failure of even the best advisors encourages investors to question the viability of the market economy itself. Consequently the fear and uncertainty causes massive withdrawal of many smaller investors. Those bear market lows are typically followed by powerful bear market rallies, which then sweep away the short sellers pulverizing even the most shrewd investors in time for fresh declines. That cycle of decline, followed by hope, followed by disillusionment, leads to aversion of quarterly statements, and ultimately leads to complete abandonment of the stock market by a large percentage of investors.
The final decline of a bear market tends to be a massive investor abandonment based on a conclusion that stocks are simply bad investments. Abandonment is beyond the stages of fear and panic and is rooted in despair and disillusionment. Investors abandon stocks at the end of a bear market because stock and investment pop stars such as Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow repeatedly prove themselves to be unreliable and disappointing. Half of the American investors abandoned stocks in the 1970s but they were followed by a fresh generation that has relied more on mutual funds. But the funds are now failing to perform as well.
Bear market lows can become enormously more and more oversold before recovering. Then the vigorous bear market rallies off of those lows further frustrate smaller investors because they don’t own the junk and high risk stocks that tend to be the meat and potatoes of bear market rallies. And then at the very top of the bear rally in junk, Jim Cramer says something like “the depression is over, the economy is improving, and this is a bull market not a bear rally” so that many investors buy in again at the market's top only to face yet another steep decline and a deep sense of personal failure an betrayal by all bullish market advisors. According to Warren Buffet this current bear market should be over within five years so he is buying as fast as investors continue to give him their money. He was down 38% for the year and he admits we are still in a bear market.
Market Outlook
Emerging-market stocks fell the most in two weeks after disappointing sales dragged down technology shares and lower oil reduced the earnings prospects for energy companies. The oilfield equipment industry cost increase from rising debt payments and falling oil prices has led to a quarterly profit slump.
Last night's Asian results were mixed. China is up 1.4%, Hong Kong is up 0.4%, and Japan's market was down 1.6%.
European markets are down in the range of -0.7% to +0.2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start flat today as corporations sell shares to raise capital and as stocks are now the most expensive they have been in seven years. Our advice is to cherry pick back into the market as the market declines 10% to 15% from recent highs.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Market peaked last week near January highs.
Market forces May 11,
The recent market rally was good news because the market last week was almost on pare with the January peak indicating that the next decline could be the classic double bottom as opposed to a new record low. However Warren Buffet is not so certain. He said in an interview this weekend that he was fairly confident now that within five years the US economy will recover.
Signs of Deflation in China
Consumer prices in China fell 1.5 percent in the year to April, marking the third consecutive month of deflation after a 1.2 percent fall in the 12 months to March according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Factory-gate prices in China fell 6.6 percent in the year to April, the rate of decline accelerated from the 6.0 percent drop in the 12 months to March. China accepts the deflation as normal after price rises for shortages last year. It will help their trade balance.
Jim Cramer was right:
He said the recent rally was focussed on "junk stocks", stocks that were doing terrible but had survived and could rise the quickest in the bear market rally. Coffee stocks like DDRX have made 3000% gains since Jim Cramer proclaimed this a junk stock rally. To date they have had less than 0.3% short selling so this is no short squeeze. Americans are now drinking less coffee and the fad is declining so it is likely that a many investors who bought DDRX and other coffee stocks are in for a rude awakening. Jim Cramer calls such people pigs that deserve to be crushed.
Treasury debt dilemma:
Poor demand for Treasury debt could raise the cost of capital and cause a relapse into U.S. banking crises. That actually has begun to happen. The treasuries had been a safe haven for investors getting out of the stock market. As the market rallies those investors sell their treasuries and buy stocks causing the US cost of debt to rise thereby putting strain on interest rates and causing stagflation. Recently, U.S. debt prices slid, sending the 30-year Treasury bond yield to its highest since November. When the cost of capital for the US becomes more expensive, the cost of the $trillions of new federal debt comes crushing down upon the economy.
US Jobless Rate Climbs to 8.9%
The economy lost 539,000 jobs in April not the much lower amounts reported in earlier Pollyanna Wall Street estimates, sending the jobless rate to a 25-year high.
Market Outlook
Us stock index futures pointed to a lower open on wall street on early Monday, with futures for the S&P 500 down 1.3 percent, Dow Jones futures down 1.2 percent and NASDAQ futures down 1.9 percent, as investors were poised to take recent gains. European shares were also down in early trading.
Last night's results: China is down 1.7%, Hong Kong is down 1.8%, India is down 1.6%, and Japan's market was flat.
European markets are down in the range of 0% to -1.8% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start lower today as wiser investors turn their imaginary paper gains into real profits and avoid being crushed as Jim Cramer forecasted for pigs. Jim Cramer had suggested the correction could be 10% or about 33% of the previous rally. However typically as markets bounce along a bottom the corrections are half to all of the earlier rally gains.
The recent market rally was good news because the market last week was almost on pare with the January peak indicating that the next decline could be the classic double bottom as opposed to a new record low. However Warren Buffet is not so certain. He said in an interview this weekend that he was fairly confident now that within five years the US economy will recover.
Signs of Deflation in China
Consumer prices in China fell 1.5 percent in the year to April, marking the third consecutive month of deflation after a 1.2 percent fall in the 12 months to March according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Factory-gate prices in China fell 6.6 percent in the year to April, the rate of decline accelerated from the 6.0 percent drop in the 12 months to March. China accepts the deflation as normal after price rises for shortages last year. It will help their trade balance.
Jim Cramer was right:
He said the recent rally was focussed on "junk stocks", stocks that were doing terrible but had survived and could rise the quickest in the bear market rally. Coffee stocks like DDRX have made 3000% gains since Jim Cramer proclaimed this a junk stock rally. To date they have had less than 0.3% short selling so this is no short squeeze. Americans are now drinking less coffee and the fad is declining so it is likely that a many investors who bought DDRX and other coffee stocks are in for a rude awakening. Jim Cramer calls such people pigs that deserve to be crushed.
Treasury debt dilemma:
Poor demand for Treasury debt could raise the cost of capital and cause a relapse into U.S. banking crises. That actually has begun to happen. The treasuries had been a safe haven for investors getting out of the stock market. As the market rallies those investors sell their treasuries and buy stocks causing the US cost of debt to rise thereby putting strain on interest rates and causing stagflation. Recently, U.S. debt prices slid, sending the 30-year Treasury bond yield to its highest since November. When the cost of capital for the US becomes more expensive, the cost of the $trillions of new federal debt comes crushing down upon the economy.
US Jobless Rate Climbs to 8.9%
The economy lost 539,000 jobs in April not the much lower amounts reported in earlier Pollyanna Wall Street estimates, sending the jobless rate to a 25-year high.
Market Outlook
Us stock index futures pointed to a lower open on wall street on early Monday, with futures for the S&P 500 down 1.3 percent, Dow Jones futures down 1.2 percent and NASDAQ futures down 1.9 percent, as investors were poised to take recent gains. European shares were also down in early trading.
Last night's results: China is down 1.7%, Hong Kong is down 1.8%, India is down 1.6%, and Japan's market was flat.
European markets are down in the range of 0% to -1.8% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start lower today as wiser investors turn their imaginary paper gains into real profits and avoid being crushed as Jim Cramer forecasted for pigs. Jim Cramer had suggested the correction could be 10% or about 33% of the previous rally. However typically as markets bounce along a bottom the corrections are half to all of the earlier rally gains.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Put all shares up over 10% in the sell block
Market forces May 8,
Signs of market peaking:
Yesterday the market declined on an increase (36%)over average volume. Jim Cramer likes to say that bulls and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. It is clear the pigs that refused to take their profits will lose all their gains if they hold on in this next decline. The last market bottom was lower than the one before that. And this current rally peaked 9% short of giving a Dow Theory bull market signal. Even the S&P's last market bottom was lower than the one before that and its current rally peaked lower than the last rally. There has been no bull market signal. At this point there is no evidence that the stock market has bottomed yet. The Obama rally we hoped for never happened. This week the Tech slide and the poor Treasury bond auction began to sink Wall Steet. The bank managers are reporting that Obama's stress tests were "feather tests." The situation is still very serious
Hedge Fund shorting is once again encouraged:
The mark to market rule avoided the valuation fraud that was going on in the hedge funds but lowered bank equity and thus increased bank leverage, valuation volatility, and instability. Obama has re-instituted the old fraud so banks can pretend to have more equity. It would have been better to just tolerate the higher bank leverage volatility but keep mark to market everywhere. So now Obama has condoned stock market valuation fraud. That means the funds can use valuation fraud once again to increase margin above FED margin rules. That combined with the failure to impose the up-tick rule for shorting stocks means Obama now condones massive hedge fund stock shorting as well.
Jim Cramer was right:
He said the recent rally was focussed on "junk stocks", stocks that were doing terribly but had survived and could rise the quickest in the bear market rally. Coffee stocks like DDRX have made 3000% gains since Jim Cramer proclaimed this rally in junk stocks. To date they have had less than 0.3% short selling so this is no short squeeze. Americans are now drinking less coffee and the fad is declining so it is likely that a many investors who bough DDRX and other coffee stocks are in for a rude awakening. Jim Cramer calls such people pigs that deserve to be crushed. Yes, Jim Cramer said that junk stocks with little future are what would gain in this rally. He was right about that. One Canadian stock VTNC doubled in just four weeks. But the junk prices may drop like a rock when the market declines. And junk is what hedge funds love to short. These stocks could be closed down for good. All of Jim Cramer's huffing and puffing cannot sell anymore junk to pigs when this stock rally ends.
Treasury debt dilemma:
To afford debt the interest rate has to be low. When there is a crisis people flee to safety so the interest rate of treasuries is indeed low. Lots of debt is being taken on by Obama to slow the world economic collapse. But if the world economy is stabilized then there is no risk and no need to own treasuries. Treasuries are then sold and the cost of the US debt skyrockets. High debt and high interest rates then pop the economic bubble. So that is the dilemma for the socialists.
They cannot afford debt at high interest rates. They want debt to make the economy safe. But a safe economy means no one will own treasuries unless their interest rate is high and unaffordable.
We pointed out yesterday that investors worried that poor demand for government debt could raise the cost of capital and hamper chances of a U.S. economic recovery. That actually has begun to happen. The treasuries were a safe haven for investors getting out of the stock market. As the market rallies those investors sell their treasuries causing the US cost of debt to rise thereby putting strain on interest rates and causing stagflation. Yesterday U.S. debt prices slid, sending the 30-year Treasury bond yield to its highest since November. This confuses the media and they suggest that maybe the Chinese don't want US bonds any more. Either way, if the cost of capital for the US becomes more expensive, then the recession is going to last much longer.
Market Outlook
Bonds tumbled and U.S. stocks slid yesterday from a four-month high as declines in technology shares snuffed out an early rally. Treasury 30-year bonds fell the most since February, as investors demanded higher yields at an auction of $14 billion of the securities.
Last night's results: China is up 1%, Hong Kong is up 1%, India is down 2%, and Japan's market is up 0.5%. That is half a good as yesterday.
European markets are up in the range of +1.9% to +2.8% mid way through their day. That is very similar to yesterday.
US futures indicate the markets will start higher today similar to the start yesterday.
Signs of market peaking:
Yesterday the market declined on an increase (36%)over average volume. Jim Cramer likes to say that bulls and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. It is clear the pigs that refused to take their profits will lose all their gains if they hold on in this next decline. The last market bottom was lower than the one before that. And this current rally peaked 9% short of giving a Dow Theory bull market signal. Even the S&P's last market bottom was lower than the one before that and its current rally peaked lower than the last rally. There has been no bull market signal. At this point there is no evidence that the stock market has bottomed yet. The Obama rally we hoped for never happened. This week the Tech slide and the poor Treasury bond auction began to sink Wall Steet. The bank managers are reporting that Obama's stress tests were "feather tests." The situation is still very serious
Hedge Fund shorting is once again encouraged:
The mark to market rule avoided the valuation fraud that was going on in the hedge funds but lowered bank equity and thus increased bank leverage, valuation volatility, and instability. Obama has re-instituted the old fraud so banks can pretend to have more equity. It would have been better to just tolerate the higher bank leverage volatility but keep mark to market everywhere. So now Obama has condoned stock market valuation fraud. That means the funds can use valuation fraud once again to increase margin above FED margin rules. That combined with the failure to impose the up-tick rule for shorting stocks means Obama now condones massive hedge fund stock shorting as well.
Jim Cramer was right:
He said the recent rally was focussed on "junk stocks", stocks that were doing terribly but had survived and could rise the quickest in the bear market rally. Coffee stocks like DDRX have made 3000% gains since Jim Cramer proclaimed this rally in junk stocks. To date they have had less than 0.3% short selling so this is no short squeeze. Americans are now drinking less coffee and the fad is declining so it is likely that a many investors who bough DDRX and other coffee stocks are in for a rude awakening. Jim Cramer calls such people pigs that deserve to be crushed. Yes, Jim Cramer said that junk stocks with little future are what would gain in this rally. He was right about that. One Canadian stock VTNC doubled in just four weeks. But the junk prices may drop like a rock when the market declines. And junk is what hedge funds love to short. These stocks could be closed down for good. All of Jim Cramer's huffing and puffing cannot sell anymore junk to pigs when this stock rally ends.
Treasury debt dilemma:
To afford debt the interest rate has to be low. When there is a crisis people flee to safety so the interest rate of treasuries is indeed low. Lots of debt is being taken on by Obama to slow the world economic collapse. But if the world economy is stabilized then there is no risk and no need to own treasuries. Treasuries are then sold and the cost of the US debt skyrockets. High debt and high interest rates then pop the economic bubble. So that is the dilemma for the socialists.
They cannot afford debt at high interest rates. They want debt to make the economy safe. But a safe economy means no one will own treasuries unless their interest rate is high and unaffordable.
We pointed out yesterday that investors worried that poor demand for government debt could raise the cost of capital and hamper chances of a U.S. economic recovery. That actually has begun to happen. The treasuries were a safe haven for investors getting out of the stock market. As the market rallies those investors sell their treasuries causing the US cost of debt to rise thereby putting strain on interest rates and causing stagflation. Yesterday U.S. debt prices slid, sending the 30-year Treasury bond yield to its highest since November. This confuses the media and they suggest that maybe the Chinese don't want US bonds any more. Either way, if the cost of capital for the US becomes more expensive, then the recession is going to last much longer.
Market Outlook
Bonds tumbled and U.S. stocks slid yesterday from a four-month high as declines in technology shares snuffed out an early rally. Treasury 30-year bonds fell the most since February, as investors demanded higher yields at an auction of $14 billion of the securities.
Last night's results: China is up 1%, Hong Kong is up 1%, India is down 2%, and Japan's market is up 0.5%. That is half a good as yesterday.
European markets are up in the range of +1.9% to +2.8% mid way through their day. That is very similar to yesterday.
US futures indicate the markets will start higher today similar to the start yesterday.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Dow hits new high of 8512.28. January high was 9034.69.
Market forces May 7,
The Dow Industrials Index is now within 523 points of breaking its January high of 9034.69.
Similarly the DJ Rails Index is at 3404.11 and only needs to break its January high of 3717.26.
That means with as little as a 9% rise in the DJR from current levels this rally could signal the end of the Obama depression as Jim Cramer has been predicting with a Dow Theory buy signal that a bull market has begun. That will be the shortest depression in history and perhaps will be called the Obama panic instead of the Obama depression. Even FOX news is bullish on the stock market now saying, “Stress-Free Markets Rally.”
Government bonds dipped on and 10-year yields edged up from one-month lows, as the rally in global equities this week has been supported by some investor selling of safe-haven government debt. That will raise all government debt interest payments. Sadly the people most concerned about safety began buying stocks after the market already rose 30% and is poised for a decline. The selling pressure on treasuries will make the expense of government debt rise rapidly because the interest rate had been close to zero for a few months now. That will sharply increase future deficits by increasing the cost of servicing many $trillions in world government debt.
Market Manipulation:
Yesterday the stock gains were primarily in the Banking sectors of the market indices. The Technology area stalled indicating a rotation out of the technology stocks may have started. We will have to wait and see. Coffee stocks also seem to be pumped up several hundred percent over the last month. How can some of those stocks now be two and three times higher in price than they were when before two years ago when Starbucks peaked? Is that the sign of the end of the rally that Jim Cramer warned about? No one seems to be able to explain why coffee bean stocks been favored like technology stocks. They are still losing money.
Economic signs:
The economic inflection point could have been passed in April or the April data could be just a scatter point in the normal data variation. If May confirms April then the bear market that began 17 months ago could be half over. An inflection point is when an advance or decline passed the point of its highest rate of change as when layoffs went from over 600,000 per month in February to under 500,000 per month in April. Yes, 500,000 is still an awful high number but still an improvement. If it holds in May it could mean this bear market only has less than 17 months to go. I remember when Bush was criticized for layoffs of 60,000 per month.
Market Outlook
Last night's results: China is up 0.2%, Hong Kong is up 2.2%, India is up 1.3%, and Japan's market is up 4.5%.
European markets are also up in the range of 1.6% to +2.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start higher today.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long-term investor's market. The markets could easily hit a new low in the next three months.
Ben Bernacke is a broken clock that always tells the same time. He is always saying the economy will recover six months from now. This past winter he said the economy would turn around by mid 2009 and now he says by the end of the year. To him the recovery is always around the next corner.
The Dow Industrials Index is now within 523 points of breaking its January high of 9034.69.
Similarly the DJ Rails Index is at 3404.11 and only needs to break its January high of 3717.26.
That means with as little as a 9% rise in the DJR from current levels this rally could signal the end of the Obama depression as Jim Cramer has been predicting with a Dow Theory buy signal that a bull market has begun. That will be the shortest depression in history and perhaps will be called the Obama panic instead of the Obama depression. Even FOX news is bullish on the stock market now saying, “Stress-Free Markets Rally.”
Government bonds dipped on and 10-year yields edged up from one-month lows, as the rally in global equities this week has been supported by some investor selling of safe-haven government debt. That will raise all government debt interest payments. Sadly the people most concerned about safety began buying stocks after the market already rose 30% and is poised for a decline. The selling pressure on treasuries will make the expense of government debt rise rapidly because the interest rate had been close to zero for a few months now. That will sharply increase future deficits by increasing the cost of servicing many $trillions in world government debt.
Market Manipulation:
Yesterday the stock gains were primarily in the Banking sectors of the market indices. The Technology area stalled indicating a rotation out of the technology stocks may have started. We will have to wait and see. Coffee stocks also seem to be pumped up several hundred percent over the last month. How can some of those stocks now be two and three times higher in price than they were when before two years ago when Starbucks peaked? Is that the sign of the end of the rally that Jim Cramer warned about? No one seems to be able to explain why coffee bean stocks been favored like technology stocks. They are still losing money.
Economic signs:
The economic inflection point could have been passed in April or the April data could be just a scatter point in the normal data variation. If May confirms April then the bear market that began 17 months ago could be half over. An inflection point is when an advance or decline passed the point of its highest rate of change as when layoffs went from over 600,000 per month in February to under 500,000 per month in April. Yes, 500,000 is still an awful high number but still an improvement. If it holds in May it could mean this bear market only has less than 17 months to go. I remember when Bush was criticized for layoffs of 60,000 per month.
Market Outlook
Last night's results: China is up 0.2%, Hong Kong is up 2.2%, India is up 1.3%, and Japan's market is up 4.5%.
European markets are also up in the range of 1.6% to +2.4% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start higher today.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long-term investor's market. The markets could easily hit a new low in the next three months.
Ben Bernacke is a broken clock that always tells the same time. He is always saying the economy will recover six months from now. This past winter he said the economy would turn around by mid 2009 and now he says by the end of the year. To him the recovery is always around the next corner.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Obama threatens to inform his thugs of bondholders who do not cave in. Pump and dump.
Market forces May 6,
Socialists:
Remember that Lenin, Stalin, then Hitler and Mussolini were highly popular people who started as unknowns with very little experience but never let a crisis go wasted. Their followers loved them as they exploited and eventually murdered wealthy minorities who were considered dangerous people. Smart and capable people are always a danger to totalitarianism. The greatest and most popular socialist dictators were men who turned out in the end to be psychopaths. They all won their dictatorial powers in free democratic elections.
Amazingly MSNBC/GE/Pravda last night started going after Obama for threatening those who resist his dictatorial nationalization with busloads of Acorn, Communists, and other community activists ready to protest at their homes and send death threats. GE/Immelt owing the MSNBC media is like Bellasconi owning the media in Italy with one difference. Bellasconi is not a socialist so he is criticized and Immelt is not. No doubt MSNBC wants to fire those capitalist conspirators but they suddenly noticed their ratings went up. Americans are opposed to nationalization but they still do not understand Obama's policies are left of socialism. Obama is like FDR in many ways. But like FDR he is leading America into a socialist depression. Africa and Latin America are socialist continents that are in one continuous socialist depression. Socialism is an "eat the elephant and then starve" syndrome. Socialism's redistribution of wealth is great when we can appropriate the wealth of the rich Jews, or the rich aristocrats, or the rich Wall Street gang, or those rich GM bondholders. It is simple: first declare their livelihood a social crime and demonize the rich and successful by saying they stole from the poor. Then legalize the stealing of the wealth of the rich and successful with new laws to tax them or by creating a crisis to destroy the market value of their wealth and then nationalizing their wealth at depression prices further depressed with threats of violence if they do not accept government expropriation. Giving out the names of the bond holders who resist this plan is like Hitler identifying all German Jews (criminalising them as thieves) so Hitler's Acorn (Brown Shirts) can then intimidate them at their homes.
That is what socialism is. It is the criminalization of the most productive people in society followed by the theft of the assets of the most productive people in society. It is a feast and a nationalization orgy until all the assets are consumed. When 2% hold 50% of the national wealth they can for a short period double the wealth of the lower 98% using this technique. It is like the African elephant kill where everyone feasts until the elephants go extinct. Then everyone starves and the incompetent ignorant socialists strip the land like locust looking for food. Global warming is not the reason for starvation. Global nationalism is the cause of the deserts and floods because socialists isolate and destroy all the most intelligent and productive people in socialist countries declaring them anti-socialist. Under socialism it is not integrity, what you know, or your abilities that count, it is only who you know that counts.
Market Manipulation:
This past Monday was mutual fund Monday when employees pour the money into their 401 plans. Usually it is a large cash flow at the beginning of the month and this month it was positive for a change. But now it is over and Jim Cramer thinks that the market will now drop unless the hedge funds continue cannibalism of food and other "wrong" stocks. What a clever thought. Could that be how funds create illusionary market rallies by buying the "right" stocks in the indices while selling the "wrong" stocks that do not affect the indices? That would explain why so many Americans lose money even in rallies like the current one. Then as the rally begins to fail the fund managers reverse the cannibalism and switch into the "wrong" stocks that do not affect the indices exaggerating the losses of the investing public.
If that is true then Jim Cramer and his fund friends first lure the public into the rally of "right" then they dump the "right" stocks and buy the "wrong" stocks at depressed prices. Now it all makes sense! That explains why Jim Cramer and his buddies recommend and pump the stocks after they have bought in and prices are in an upward trend. That is because they are already invested (i.e. their charitable trusts… baloney) and they want Joe Americans to take the high flyers off their hands. So Jim Cramer rightly pronounced that yesterday the "wrong" stocks went up and that could spell the end of this rally because they do not help raise the indices. It indicates that the funds have finished pumping the "right" index stocks and have begun dumping them and buying the "wrong" non-index stocks.
Disney profit is reported as down 43%, but Jim Cramer spun that as good news coming out today.
Economic signs:
The mutual funds have exhausted themselves before reaching the January index highs. Failure to meet the high is an indication that the market still could set a new low in the next three months.
Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 491,000 workers from payrolls in April, indicating the labor market is still weakening but at a 30% lower according to a private report showed today. That would again indicate an inflection point or that the recession is about half over and unemployment should level off at a lower level by the end of next year.
Market Outlook
Last night's results: China is up 1%, Hong Kong is up 2.5%, India is down 1.5%, and Japan's market was closed.
European markets are in the range of 0% to +0.9% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start flat today.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long-term investor's market. The markets could easily hit a new low in the next three months.
Ben Bernacke is a broken clock that always tells the same time. He is always saying the economy will recover six months from now. This past winter he said the economy would turn around mid year and now he says by the end of the year. Ben Bernacke is probably the most incompetent FED chairman in the history of the FED. Geithner is no better. Under socialism it is not integrity, what you know, or your abilities that count, it is only who you know that counts.
Market forces May 6,
Socialists:
Remember that Lenin, Stalin, then Hitler and Mussolini were highly popular people who started as unknowns with very little experience but never let a crisis go wasted. Their followers loved them as they exploited and eventually murdered wealthy minorities who were considered dangerous people. Smart and capable people are always a danger to totalitarianism. The greatest and most popular socialist dictators were men who turned out in the end to be psychopaths. They all won their dictatorial powers in free democratic elections.
Amazingly MSNBC/GE/Pravda last night started going after Obama for threatening those who resist his dictatorial nationalization with busloads of Acorn, Communists, and other community activists ready to protest at their homes and send death threats. GE/Immelt owing the MSNBC media is like Bellasconi owning the media in Italy with one difference. Bellasconi is not a socialist so he is criticized and Immelt is not. No doubt MSNBC wants to fire those capitalist conspirators but they suddenly noticed their ratings went up. Americans are opposed to nationalization but they still do not understand Obama's policies are left of socialism. Obama is like FDR in many ways. But like FDR he is leading America into a socialist depression. Africa and Latin America are socialist continents that are in one continuous socialist depression. Socialism is an "eat the elephant and then starve" syndrome. Socialism's redistribution of wealth is great when we can appropriate the wealth of the rich Jews, or the rich aristocrats, or the rich Wall Street gang, or those rich GM bondholders. It is simple: first declare their livelihood a social crime and demonize the rich and successful by saying they stole from the poor. Then legalize the stealing of the wealth of the rich and successful with new laws to tax them or by creating a crisis to destroy the market value of their wealth and then nationalizing their wealth at depression prices further depressed with threats of violence if they do not accept government expropriation. Giving out the names of the bond holders who resist this plan is like Hitler identifying all German Jews (criminalising them as thieves) so Hitler's Acorn (Brown Shirts) can then intimidate them at their homes.
That is what socialism is. It is the criminalization of the most productive people in society followed by the theft of the assets of the most productive people in society. It is a feast and a nationalization orgy until all the assets are consumed. When 2% hold 50% of the national wealth they can for a short period double the wealth of the lower 98% using this technique. It is like the African elephant kill where everyone feasts until the elephants go extinct. Then everyone starves and the incompetent ignorant socialists strip the land like locust looking for food. Global warming is not the reason for starvation. Global nationalism is the cause of the deserts and floods because socialists isolate and destroy all the most intelligent and productive people in socialist countries declaring them anti-socialist. Under socialism it is not integrity, what you know, or your abilities that count, it is only who you know that counts.
Market Manipulation:
This past Monday was mutual fund Monday when employees pour the money into their 401 plans. Usually it is a large cash flow at the beginning of the month and this month it was positive for a change. But now it is over and Jim Cramer thinks that the market will now drop unless the hedge funds continue cannibalism of food and other "wrong" stocks. What a clever thought. Could that be how funds create illusionary market rallies by buying the "right" stocks in the indices while selling the "wrong" stocks that do not affect the indices? That would explain why so many Americans lose money even in rallies like the current one. Then as the rally begins to fail the fund managers reverse the cannibalism and switch into the "wrong" stocks that do not affect the indices exaggerating the losses of the investing public.
If that is true then Jim Cramer and his fund friends first lure the public into the rally of "right" then they dump the "right" stocks and buy the "wrong" stocks at depressed prices. Now it all makes sense! That explains why Jim Cramer and his buddies recommend and pump the stocks after they have bought in and prices are in an upward trend. That is because they are already invested (i.e. their charitable trusts… baloney) and they want Joe Americans to take the high flyers off their hands. So Jim Cramer rightly pronounced that yesterday the "wrong" stocks went up and that could spell the end of this rally because they do not help raise the indices. It indicates that the funds have finished pumping the "right" index stocks and have begun dumping them and buying the "wrong" non-index stocks.
Disney profit is reported as down 43%, but Jim Cramer spun that as good news coming out today.
Economic signs:
The mutual funds have exhausted themselves before reaching the January index highs. Failure to meet the high is an indication that the market still could set a new low in the next three months.
Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 491,000 workers from payrolls in April, indicating the labor market is still weakening but at a 30% lower according to a private report showed today. That would again indicate an inflection point or that the recession is about half over and unemployment should level off at a lower level by the end of next year.
Market Outlook
Last night's results: China is up 1%, Hong Kong is up 2.5%, India is down 1.5%, and Japan's market was closed.
European markets are in the range of 0% to +0.9% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start flat today.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long-term investor's market. The markets could easily hit a new low in the next three months.
Ben Bernacke is a broken clock that always tells the same time. He is always saying the economy will recover six months from now. This past winter he said the economy would turn around mid year and now he says by the end of the year. Ben Bernacke is probably the most incompetent FED chairman in the history of the FED. Geithner is no better. Under socialism it is not integrity, what you know, or your abilities that count, it is only who you know that counts.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Obama Pravda spreads false market optimism. Obama wants to double taxation.
Market forces May 5,
Buyers have exhausted themselves before reaching their January highs. MSNBC/GE/Pravda and the press do their best to get people into the market as it peaks thinking that somehow MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make Americans believe the collapsing housing bubble is over. On Monday they claimed that housing sales rose. Housing sales did not rise they declined a little less steeply than last year and that is called an inflection point which mathematically usually occurs when a decline is about half over. What did go up over 2% was sales to first time buyers who are taking advantage of their new tax write-off. But that is a drop in the bucket. For house sales in Connecticut and most of the country they were actually worse than last year and housing prices in Connecticut fell 22% over the last 12 months. So it is clear that MSMBC/GE/Pravda/Jim Cramer are into the same scam they were in November 2007 advising investors to be fully invested at the market peak. Their new method is to set imaginary expectations so low that they can claim imaginary good news. It is common used car salesman sleaze. Fox news is the only bright spot as they still attempt to maintain objectivity and avoid political spinning of economic news.
Remember the peak in 2009 was between one and two weeks into January and we have not reached even that height yet. We need to exceed that peak to declare the market has probably bottomed the beginning of March. Remember back in January we said we had to exceed the early December 2008 peak to declare the bottom was in November and when we failed to set a new high then the market plummeted to an all new low in March. Even if we set a new high (above S&P of 935) this time we can expect a subsequent test of an S&P of 682. We are currently at an S&P closing price of 907. All the American markets have very similar patterns with successive lower lows and lower highs since mid 2008. Jim Cramer blatantly lies when he says we have a bull market signature. Cramer's advisor who picked the last low was likely correct two weeks ago when he said the market was peaking. That was the week Cramer was a bull once and a bear twice.
Obama is now proposing double taxation of international companies. Currently, international companies and their employees are taxed by the countries where the work is done. They have a division set up where ever they are taxed. When I worked in France my company paid my French income tax for me and I paid my American income taxes that were lower. I was therefore taxed fully by both France and the USA. That is already double taxation on USA employees. Similarly Obama wants to tax those overseas plants twice, once in the country they product and once by the USA. Obama should know that it is illegal to pretend a corporation's work was done somewhere where they pay no taxes or lower taxes. A law already exists against such fraud. But double taxing overseas production will make all USA international corporations less profitable and will likely cause them to sell off their foreign plants and result in not USA tax benefit. In effect Obama will then be redistributing USA international company wealth abroad and it will make the USA a poorer nation. Obama knows nothing! He knows nothing at all!
Market Outlook
Again don't look to MSNBC/GE/Pravda or Jim Cramer for any objective news or advice. GE should shed its media interests. Disney, an economic barometer, is expected to report poorer earnings.
Last night's results: China is up 0.3%, Hong Kong is up 0.3%, India is down 0.1%, and Japan closed.
European markets are in the range of -0.2% to +2.7% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start slightly lower today.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long-term investor's market. Sy Harding yesterday affirmed his original prediction that the market will not bottom until next year. When the Clinton March 2000 DOT Com bubble peaked and then burst. Then 911 occurred in 2001 and it was March 2003 before the stock market became bullish again. It was November 2007 when the mortgage bubble peaked and burst. It was in September that the banking crises hit. If this current Bush/Obama recession is no worse than the Clinton Dot Com/Bush911 recession then Sy Harding may be correct. But the effects of Obama's failure Democrat-Socialist policies could be similar to FDR's early failed socialist policies that created a ten-year Jimmy Carter type economic malaise.
Buyers have exhausted themselves before reaching their January highs. MSNBC/GE/Pravda and the press do their best to get people into the market as it peaks thinking that somehow MSNBC/GE/Pravda can make Americans believe the collapsing housing bubble is over. On Monday they claimed that housing sales rose. Housing sales did not rise they declined a little less steeply than last year and that is called an inflection point which mathematically usually occurs when a decline is about half over. What did go up over 2% was sales to first time buyers who are taking advantage of their new tax write-off. But that is a drop in the bucket. For house sales in Connecticut and most of the country they were actually worse than last year and housing prices in Connecticut fell 22% over the last 12 months. So it is clear that MSMBC/GE/Pravda/Jim Cramer are into the same scam they were in November 2007 advising investors to be fully invested at the market peak. Their new method is to set imaginary expectations so low that they can claim imaginary good news. It is common used car salesman sleaze. Fox news is the only bright spot as they still attempt to maintain objectivity and avoid political spinning of economic news.
Remember the peak in 2009 was between one and two weeks into January and we have not reached even that height yet. We need to exceed that peak to declare the market has probably bottomed the beginning of March. Remember back in January we said we had to exceed the early December 2008 peak to declare the bottom was in November and when we failed to set a new high then the market plummeted to an all new low in March. Even if we set a new high (above S&P of 935) this time we can expect a subsequent test of an S&P of 682. We are currently at an S&P closing price of 907. All the American markets have very similar patterns with successive lower lows and lower highs since mid 2008. Jim Cramer blatantly lies when he says we have a bull market signature. Cramer's advisor who picked the last low was likely correct two weeks ago when he said the market was peaking. That was the week Cramer was a bull once and a bear twice.
Obama is now proposing double taxation of international companies. Currently, international companies and their employees are taxed by the countries where the work is done. They have a division set up where ever they are taxed. When I worked in France my company paid my French income tax for me and I paid my American income taxes that were lower. I was therefore taxed fully by both France and the USA. That is already double taxation on USA employees. Similarly Obama wants to tax those overseas plants twice, once in the country they product and once by the USA. Obama should know that it is illegal to pretend a corporation's work was done somewhere where they pay no taxes or lower taxes. A law already exists against such fraud. But double taxing overseas production will make all USA international corporations less profitable and will likely cause them to sell off their foreign plants and result in not USA tax benefit. In effect Obama will then be redistributing USA international company wealth abroad and it will make the USA a poorer nation. Obama knows nothing! He knows nothing at all!
Market Outlook
Again don't look to MSNBC/GE/Pravda or Jim Cramer for any objective news or advice. GE should shed its media interests. Disney, an economic barometer, is expected to report poorer earnings.
Last night's results: China is up 0.3%, Hong Kong is up 0.3%, India is down 0.1%, and Japan closed.
European markets are in the range of -0.2% to +2.7% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start slightly lower today.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long-term investor's market. Sy Harding yesterday affirmed his original prediction that the market will not bottom until next year. When the Clinton March 2000 DOT Com bubble peaked and then burst. Then 911 occurred in 2001 and it was March 2003 before the stock market became bullish again. It was November 2007 when the mortgage bubble peaked and burst. It was in September that the banking crises hit. If this current Bush/Obama recession is no worse than the Clinton Dot Com/Bush911 recession then Sy Harding may be correct. But the effects of Obama's failure Democrat-Socialist policies could be similar to FDR's early failed socialist policies that created a ten-year Jimmy Carter type economic malaise.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Buying volume continues to be low but sellers seem afraid.
Market forces May 4,
Buyers have exhausted themselves. The buyers come in early each day and try to panic people into thinking they are missing the big move. Then the buyers slowly sell off at the higher prices leaving the day with a slight rise on low volume. Investors just take more profits and permanently get out of stocks or wait to buy after a decline in their target stocks.
Friday the market rose slightly but buying volume is near record lows. Fear had all but stopped both buying and selling in the USA. The expectation is a decline but there is the fear that somehow this time it is different as $trillions of funds make their way into the economy. Yet consumer spending was down again last month and big item purchases such as cars were down 30% to 40%.
Americans are actively looking at alternative investments to stocks and bonds. Unfortunately there are few available to investors now that are not derivatives. Young investors would do well to look at their lives and invest in their educational and their families. Roughly 50% of young people divorce and then lose half their potential wealth to lawyers, courts, councilors, and psychiatrists.
We expect Ford will be the only US automobile to survive the next ten years because they are the only one where unions made real concessions and the company seems viable without large infusions of taxpayer money. GM unions triumphed over investors, taxpayers, and consumers and that will not be forgotten. Chrysler was failing already under Daimler and Fiat does not compare with Daimler as an owner of Chrysler.
Credit Card defaults are rising and are becoming the greatest future bank risk. President Obama's attempt to get legislation to cripple bank credit policies would have destroyed several banks by taking away their ability to go after credit fraud which comes from massive numbers of dead beats trying to shake down the banks. There are no doubt some deceptive and corrupt bank policies such as late interest fees that appear a month later when a customer pays their account in full. Those interest fees of a few dollars then trigger $30+ late fees the next month. Those are deceptive because the fee appears after the customer is told the account is paid in full so the customer thinks it is a bank mistake and often neglects to pay the additional small amount which is already treated by the bank as late. But at the moment banks need support not a credit shake up.
Market Outlook
Don't look to MSNBC/GE/Pravda for any objective news or advice. The US WWII Commander in Chief and the leader of the Allied Forces in Europe warned Americans of the threat of the military-industrial complex. MSNBC/GE/Pravda is a military-industrial complex with a propaganda machine to crush its enemies in the market place. The US government is GE's best customer.
Today, Asian markets opened and played catch-up after their annual May Day holiday. China is up 3.3%, Hong Kong is up 5.5%, India is up 6.4%, and Japan up 1.7%. May Day is when the socialists and communists of the world have their big celebration. In the USA some turned out but were not reported.
European markets are flat in the range of -0.1% & 1.6% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start flat.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long term investor's market.
Buyers have exhausted themselves. The buyers come in early each day and try to panic people into thinking they are missing the big move. Then the buyers slowly sell off at the higher prices leaving the day with a slight rise on low volume. Investors just take more profits and permanently get out of stocks or wait to buy after a decline in their target stocks.
Friday the market rose slightly but buying volume is near record lows. Fear had all but stopped both buying and selling in the USA. The expectation is a decline but there is the fear that somehow this time it is different as $trillions of funds make their way into the economy. Yet consumer spending was down again last month and big item purchases such as cars were down 30% to 40%.
Americans are actively looking at alternative investments to stocks and bonds. Unfortunately there are few available to investors now that are not derivatives. Young investors would do well to look at their lives and invest in their educational and their families. Roughly 50% of young people divorce and then lose half their potential wealth to lawyers, courts, councilors, and psychiatrists.
We expect Ford will be the only US automobile to survive the next ten years because they are the only one where unions made real concessions and the company seems viable without large infusions of taxpayer money. GM unions triumphed over investors, taxpayers, and consumers and that will not be forgotten. Chrysler was failing already under Daimler and Fiat does not compare with Daimler as an owner of Chrysler.
Credit Card defaults are rising and are becoming the greatest future bank risk. President Obama's attempt to get legislation to cripple bank credit policies would have destroyed several banks by taking away their ability to go after credit fraud which comes from massive numbers of dead beats trying to shake down the banks. There are no doubt some deceptive and corrupt bank policies such as late interest fees that appear a month later when a customer pays their account in full. Those interest fees of a few dollars then trigger $30+ late fees the next month. Those are deceptive because the fee appears after the customer is told the account is paid in full so the customer thinks it is a bank mistake and often neglects to pay the additional small amount which is already treated by the bank as late. But at the moment banks need support not a credit shake up.
Market Outlook
Don't look to MSNBC/GE/Pravda for any objective news or advice. The US WWII Commander in Chief and the leader of the Allied Forces in Europe warned Americans of the threat of the military-industrial complex. MSNBC/GE/Pravda is a military-industrial complex with a propaganda machine to crush its enemies in the market place. The US government is GE's best customer.
Today, Asian markets opened and played catch-up after their annual May Day holiday. China is up 3.3%, Hong Kong is up 5.5%, India is up 6.4%, and Japan up 1.7%. May Day is when the socialists and communists of the world have their big celebration. In the USA some turned out but were not reported.
European markets are flat in the range of -0.1% & 1.6% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start flat.
We recommend cherry picking back into the market during retrenchments. This however still is not a long term investor's market.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Buyers have exhausted themselves. Investors take profits and permanently get out of stocks.
Market forces May 1, May Day
Yesterday the Bulls exhausted themselves and volume picked up as investors took profits. Lightly capitalized Cramer junk stocks continued to have short squeezes as sentiment turns against short selling. But even Jim Cramer can't predict which will double next and continues to rail against the high dividend and stable stocks he recommended just a month ago when Jim said we were in a depression. Last week Jim said we are in a recession and this week he thinks it is almost over. People who follow his advice have been jerked around relentlessly and suffer great losses. He is part of MSNBC/GE Pravda.
President Obama criticized Chrysler bondholders for not giving up their rights in favor of the unions that drove the American auto industry bankrupt with their high wages, high pensions, and strikes.
Small GM bondholders have objected to having the FED and the GM union confiscate their lifetime savings last week without due process. They plan to take their case to court too.
President Obama this week succeeded in destroying one of America's greatest banks, Bank of America, with socialist rhetoric, rumor, and community action group coercion. ACORN and American unions, communists, and democrat-socialists are ecstatic.
We are being destroyed by a danger that has sprung up from within. President Obama said he liked President Lincoln and President Lincoln in his Lyceum speech said that America's liberty and values could only be destroyed Obama's way… from within.
President Lincoln said,
"We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them--they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Theirs was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights;
" 'tis ours only, to transmit these, unprofaned by the foot of an invader, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform.
"At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
"They were the pillars of the temple of liberty; and now, that they have crumbled away, that temple must fall, unless we, their descendants, supply their places with other pillars, hewn from the solid quarry of sober reason. Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defense.-- Let those materials be molded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; (til) the last trump(et) shall awaken our WASHINGTON."
Market Outlook
MSNBC, a subsidiary of GE, continues to misinform and distort the news. They continue to mention the positive market events and set expectations so low that even negative market events are presented as positive. That misinformation is bad for average American's and their 401 plans. It makes it easier for Obama, Pelosi, the communists, and socialists to point out the irrationality of capitalism and the need for bigger government to run American banks and corporations. The higher the market goes the more investors will pull money out and cancel out any buying.
MSNBC/GE/Pravda are doing an excellent job destroying American's confidence in free speech, liberty, and the right to pursue happiness as they glorify socialism, homosexuality, narcissism, atheism, the corrupt U.S. Congress, pot heads or worse, unions, illegal aliens on the dole, community organizer thugs and of course their messiah Obama.
The argument that stocks appear to be “once in a lifetime bargains” ignores the reality that under socialism or communism stock investments are worthless. Look at what Obama has already done to the American banks, and the automobile industry while MSNBC/GE/Pravda claims we only have had a recession and it is almost over!
Many Americans will continue to take money out of the stock markets even with 401 plan penalties because it is better to invest in real estate outside the cities so they can plant gardens and not starve especially when Obama's hyperinflation wipes out the value of everyone's 401 plans and the food stores are empty like in Cuba and Zimbabwe. Obama is sending trade delegations to Africa next month. His delegations said we recently learned a lot from Cuba and have more to learn in Africa. This year Zimbabwe hit 231 million per cent inflation. Yes, we all need to study up on hyperinflation.
Today, Asian markets were mostly closed with Japan up 1.7%. May Day is when all the socialists and communists of the world have their big celebration.
European markets are mostly closed too with the London flat mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DOW will start the day flat lined… dead.
As the administration MSNBC/GE/Pravda deception becomes obvious then investment enthusiasm turns to disillusion and complete withdrawal from the market. The downturn could then set a new stock market low. Under socialism, even FDR's socialism experiment stock market low is once again achievable.
Yesterday the Bulls exhausted themselves and volume picked up as investors took profits. Lightly capitalized Cramer junk stocks continued to have short squeezes as sentiment turns against short selling. But even Jim Cramer can't predict which will double next and continues to rail against the high dividend and stable stocks he recommended just a month ago when Jim said we were in a depression. Last week Jim said we are in a recession and this week he thinks it is almost over. People who follow his advice have been jerked around relentlessly and suffer great losses. He is part of MSNBC/GE Pravda.
President Obama criticized Chrysler bondholders for not giving up their rights in favor of the unions that drove the American auto industry bankrupt with their high wages, high pensions, and strikes.
Small GM bondholders have objected to having the FED and the GM union confiscate their lifetime savings last week without due process. They plan to take their case to court too.
President Obama this week succeeded in destroying one of America's greatest banks, Bank of America, with socialist rhetoric, rumor, and community action group coercion. ACORN and American unions, communists, and democrat-socialists are ecstatic.
We are being destroyed by a danger that has sprung up from within. President Obama said he liked President Lincoln and President Lincoln in his Lyceum speech said that America's liberty and values could only be destroyed Obama's way… from within.
President Lincoln said,
"We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them--they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Theirs was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights;
" 'tis ours only, to transmit these, unprofaned by the foot of an invader, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform.
"At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
"They were the pillars of the temple of liberty; and now, that they have crumbled away, that temple must fall, unless we, their descendants, supply their places with other pillars, hewn from the solid quarry of sober reason. Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defense.-- Let those materials be molded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; (til) the last trump(et) shall awaken our WASHINGTON."
Market Outlook
MSNBC, a subsidiary of GE, continues to misinform and distort the news. They continue to mention the positive market events and set expectations so low that even negative market events are presented as positive. That misinformation is bad for average American's and their 401 plans. It makes it easier for Obama, Pelosi, the communists, and socialists to point out the irrationality of capitalism and the need for bigger government to run American banks and corporations. The higher the market goes the more investors will pull money out and cancel out any buying.
MSNBC/GE/Pravda are doing an excellent job destroying American's confidence in free speech, liberty, and the right to pursue happiness as they glorify socialism, homosexuality, narcissism, atheism, the corrupt U.S. Congress, pot heads or worse, unions, illegal aliens on the dole, community organizer thugs and of course their messiah Obama.
The argument that stocks appear to be “once in a lifetime bargains” ignores the reality that under socialism or communism stock investments are worthless. Look at what Obama has already done to the American banks, and the automobile industry while MSNBC/GE/Pravda claims we only have had a recession and it is almost over!
Many Americans will continue to take money out of the stock markets even with 401 plan penalties because it is better to invest in real estate outside the cities so they can plant gardens and not starve especially when Obama's hyperinflation wipes out the value of everyone's 401 plans and the food stores are empty like in Cuba and Zimbabwe. Obama is sending trade delegations to Africa next month. His delegations said we recently learned a lot from Cuba and have more to learn in Africa. This year Zimbabwe hit 231 million per cent inflation. Yes, we all need to study up on hyperinflation.
Today, Asian markets were mostly closed with Japan up 1.7%. May Day is when all the socialists and communists of the world have their big celebration.
European markets are mostly closed too with the London flat mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DOW will start the day flat lined… dead.
As the administration MSNBC/GE/Pravda deception becomes obvious then investment enthusiasm turns to disillusion and complete withdrawal from the market. The downturn could then set a new stock market low. Under socialism, even FDR's socialism experiment stock market low is once again achievable.
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