How does one know when to sell, sell, and sell?
It is usually when NBC/GE/Pravda/Mad Money tells you buy, buy, buy. Lately it has also been when Warren Buffet is buying it. What a shame it is when we grow old and feeble minded and chase wind mills rather than build nuclear powerplants.
Market forces May 19,
German Investor confidence is at a three-year high as their economy dives. Sounds like they caught NBC/GE/Pravda Mad Money pig fever too. Despite investor over exuberance, Germany's financial markets regulator BaFin said today that it is highly likely that the worst is yet to come for the banks.
"It's highly probable that the banks will feel the full fury of the worst recession we've ever seen on their credit portfolios," Jochen Sanio, BaFin's president said Tuesday. Sanio further suggested German banks stock up their own capital to survive the "coming difficult economic phase."
Yet, Fast Money had a clown on yesterday saying how wonderful our banks will be under new socialist regulators taking from the rich and giving to the poor.
Investor confidence has not been this high in three years! Wasn't it about three years ago that investors now wish they had sold their stocks and their homes and moved into a nice apartment?
Market Outlook
We are on the sidelines until the market re-tests its lows.
Last night's Asian results were up. China up 0.9%, Hong Kong up 3%, India up 0.1%, and Japan's market up 2.8%.
European markets are up in the range of +0.9% to +2% mid way through their day.
US futures indicate the markets will start up about 0.5% today. Pundits are doing their best to have the market top the January highs. That would make the next decline look less ominous. They are whipping the news to froth feeding investors false information much like they did during the DOT COM bubble when every announcement suspiciously seemed to exceed expectations by about one penny. Now every piece of news suspiciously beats expectations and inflection points are announced as though they are turning points. For example, excluding non-recurring items, Home Depot revenue decreased 9.7% to $16.18 billion, earnings fell to 16% to 35 cents and same-store sales fell 10%. Yet the NBC/GE/Pravda sleeze spin this terrible news as unexpected proof that we are in a bull market!
If you go into a HD or LOW store today you will see that their selection is way down and their prices are non-competitive. You can now buy most of what HD and LOW sell for half their price by buying direct on the internet and get it delivered directly to the site. Most Home Depot merchandise is now made overseas and distribution centers now deliver kitchens, bedrooms, baths, appliances, and even the tools and hardware directly. Home Depot does not carry the stuff into your house any more. Only when you have HD and LOW deliver direct do you get that kind of help. But you can do that yourself at half the cost buying direct. Many companies like HD and LOW are becoming showrooms and more contractors and soon more shoppers will be buying direct. The showroom business model is a model of failure.
We estimate we are about half way to a housing turn around and about a year to go to pass this economic crisis bottom. And after that we will enter uncharted territory where we can only hope that the creative destruction resulting from innovations can offset the socialist governmental quagmire the Democrat-Socialists are creating with their complete control of the three branches of American government.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment