Aug 1 Prepare for us announcing a possible bear market signal in about a week which actually will likely be a short term buying opportunity followed by up to a +10% bounce before getting completely out of stocks (or short) for a period of anywhere from one to eighteen months. The stock market is a house of cards now. The equities have been hollowed out because the analysts like Jim Cramer beat up on companies that did not fudge revenues, income, and earnings projections by playing balance and income sheet games. The 65 day moving averages have been breached but we are not at panic stage.

In 2000 the game was to hide debts and losses in a separate set of books.  Even Greece did it and suddenly they were all in over their head.  Next the crooks came up with a new asset class called derivatives and the one that brought that house of cards down were the Countrywide type mortgage derivatives based on Obama-Frank liar loans. Poor minorities were allowed to buy homes with low initial adjustable rate mortgages.  Home ownership went from 64% to 66% of all Americans until the interest rates popped up three years later and everyone tried to sell their homes at once.  Now American home ownership is under 63%.  Obama made it worse than ever. It is estimated that 30% of all mortgages are still underwater and not foreclosed on because the banks are hollowed out and falsely carrying those houses at full value when in fact they would depress the housing market 30% if they all went on the market at one time.  The losses that would then have to be recognized by the banks would be staggering.  There are many rocks hidden beneath the $4.5+ trillions of QE flowing through the economy.  As that QE cash flow dries up and the QE cash flow turns more and more negative we will see many sectors of the economy going aground.

 

Tesla posted a 2^nd Q loss.

 

Former IRS head Lois Lerner claims she was completely unbiased and never harassed any of the conservative assholes even if they deserved it.  That apparently was the only email that was civil enough not to have to be accidentally deleted.

 

July 29   Consumer confidence is finally back where it was just after 9-11 in 2001 and again shortly after Obama was nominated in January 2008.  For Obama’s entire two terms American confidence has been below the confidence level at those two times.  The Obama-Frank effort to give low income people mortgages for unaffordable homes grew to be called the Liar-Loan Scandal because banks who did not comply and give loans to the Obama-Frank deadbeats were framed in setups where people who could definitely afford a home would go to the bank and not show the bank any evidence that they could afford the home.   If the banks denied their mortgages the Federal government sued the banks because the banks could have done a credit check at the bank’s own expense and would have seen the applicants were only deceiving the banks by pretending to be poor to entrap the bank and then make a small fortune suing the bank with the Federal governments backing.  Yes, that is just how corrupt the Obama-Holder government is and that is exactly what Obama’s Attorney General has continued doing to this day. 

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

 

Remember also the Obama-Holder gun running to Mexican cartels was supposed to incriminate the American gun shops and American licensed gun holders.  That backfired and the guns Obama and Holder sold to the Drug Cartels were traced to the deaths of one American border guard and over 30,000 Mexicans.  And never forget the more than 30,000 Americans harassed by the IRS and private corrupt insurance firm managers working with the Obama administration to jack up the rates on Americans who thought Obama-Frank-Holder were the most corrupt triumvirate to take power in America.  Yes, Obama is a twin brother of Putin.

 

July 28   Obama with his executive orders is beginning to transition America to something closer to the Putin oligarchy where the president puts powerful czars as heads of multiple departments.  Corporations which contribute to the oligarchy get special favors but those who do not, or who are linked to political opponents and independent thinkers get special investigations and indictments to sully their names.  So far Donald Trump and Standard and Poors have pushed back on Obama’s authoritarian attacks on American constitutional freedoms.   Obama increased IRS staff by over 20,000 so that they could harass over 30,000 Americans from 2011 to 2013.  The IRS this year mysteriously erased all their records back to 2011.  

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/jun/25/chain-email/obama-appointed-45-czars-replace-elected-officials/

 

Moms’ marijuana-for-kids campaign seeks to legalize marijuana laws for children for medical use as advocates previously did to open the door completely for adult recreational use.

 

NASDAQ is now near 2000yr highs.  QE3 is still flowing into the economy but is scheduled to go to zero by October.  Then they plan to begin contracting but it is likely the socialists will balk as it could swing the election even further against them.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIXIC+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

The way to help the bottom 20% of Americans in annual income is not a minimum wage but  with an earnings multiplier (negative tax rate) that would be 25% of income below the poverty level of about $20000/yr and decline to zero credit near the a median income of about $40,000/yr.  That would provide a real incentive to work.

 

World Economy

Aug 1  Socialist Argentina is facing its second default in 13 years. 

Obama continues his quest to follow Castro and Hugo Chavez and make the USA the third greatest banana republic in the western hemisphere.  We will soon have to be reporting Obama’s world vision in this section.

Asian stocks dropped, extending a global selloff that erased this year’s gains and halted a five-month rally in world equities.

 

July 29   On Friday, 09 May, 2014, a repulsive conductor, who just happens to be Muslim, proceeded to give Queen Beatrix of Holland an unsolicited lecture on the "beauty" of Islam at a Dutch Orchestral Concert he was conducting. The members of the Orchestra staged a walkout on their conductor!

http://www.safeshare.tv/w/cqjiYhtiXs

 

An international court in Hague on Monday ordered Russia to pay $50 billion in compensation to the former majority shareholder of now-defunct oil producer Yukos over the expropriation of the company by Putin.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/28/uk-russia-yukos-idUKKBN0FX08M20140728

 

Euro-area inflation so low it looks like an impending depression.  The European Central Bank unleashed a stimulus campaign in June, which has had no benefit and is testing Europe’s patience.

 

Orban, in his second consecutive four-year term as president of Hungary, has clashed with the EU and amassed more executive power than any of his predecessors since the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 by replacing the heads of independent institutions including the courts with communist cronies, taking control over media and changing election rules to help him retain a constitutional majority in Parliament.  Orban has championed relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of China, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan since 2010 to boost trade and seeks to ally Hungry with all five of them plus Turkey to build a socialist state closer to communism than free enterprise.

 

The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy and by-by.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

 

The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

American Economy

Jul 28

Pending Home Sales Jun slumped -1.1% after and outlier +6.1% reported last month.---

Case-Shiller 20-city Index May fell to 9.3% from 10.8%  --

July 29  

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

Jul 30

 MBA Mortgage Index 07/26 -2.2% down from 2.4% ---

ADP Employment Change Jul 218K down from 281K ---

GDP-Adv. Q2 4.0% 3.7%  up from -2.9%  more Obama nonsense

Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 2.0% up from 1.3% --

FOMC Rate Decision Jul 0.25% unchanged

Jul 31

Challenger Job Cuts Jul 24.4% rose from -20.2% ---

Initial Claims 07/26 302K up from 279K --

Continuing Claims 07/19 2539K up from 2500K --

Employment Cost Index Q2 0.7% sharply higher 0.3% ---

Chicago PMI Jul 52.6 sharply lower from 62.6 ---

Aug 1

 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 209K down from 288K ---

Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul 198K down from 262K ---

Unemployment Rate Jul 6.2% up from 6.1% --

Hourly Earnings Jul 0.0% stagnant 0.2% -

Average Workweek Jul 34.5 flat 34.5 -

Personal Income Jun 0.4% flat 0.4% -

Personal Spending Jun 0.4% up slightly from 0.2% +

PCE Prices - Core Jun 0.1% flat 0.2% -

Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul 81.8 up slightly from 81.3 +

ISM Index Jul 57.1 up from 55.3 +++

Construction Spending Jun -1.8% down sharply from 0.1% ---

The Markets

Aug 1  The market drop yesterday was sharp and brought it to its first resistance level.  The cash outflow more than doubled and the momentum could take the market 10% lower sometime next week.  If it does the market will hit the bull market resistance level for the past two years the declines stopped near or just below that level and the cash outflow was never quite enough to  give an all out sell and go short signal.  Even if it does give a sell signal that resistance level will very likely be followed by the market bouncing up about 10% before it plummets below the resistance level and the selling gets heavy.  That scenario is very possible this time. 

 

Jul 29  Beware that volume in all financial securities is at record lows and therefore it takes only a few fools to drive prices higher and then drain all the value out of the company’s cash.  At one time Apple had a stock price floor under it because it had a pot of gold in the bank.  Even the pot of gold Apple had is now gone and when its stock  price drops the stock will be worth much, much less.  And when the FED raises interest rates, all the companies that sold their  stock to raise cash will find interest expense eating up all the future profits.  This artificial profitability is from the ability to borrow a lot of money at 0.25% interest and if you only make 0.5% interest you have 100% return on investment and look like a very smartly run corporation.  In the Obama economy the idiots who have nothing to lose have everything to gain.  It is wealth redistribution, Obama’s socialist style.  When the market collapses we will see volume triple for a few days in the first sell-off.

 

Jul 28  Communism is a power grab that takes all legitimately acquired wealth and gives it to the few communists in power to redistribute to their friends creating an oligopoly similar to Russia’s.   Since the oligarchs got special favors to begin with they are under Putin’s control.  Russia begins to resemble the power structure of the old aristocracy before all the princes and princesses intermarried and created a broad alliance.   All socialist dictators rise out of humanitarian and economic crisis.  And coincidentally the dictators do their best to create crisis after crisis.  Look how Obama undermines Israel, the Ukraine, American borders, the Mid East, Northern Africa, and political opponents etc.  A world depression is what Obama needs to accomplish his goal of equality.  Unfortunately Obama’s socialism means equality of poverty.  Obama seems to want the next economic bust to take down all the free societies.

 

Now the volatility index below is starting to rise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Volume and volatility indicators are also increasing on market declines.  The sharpest declines during the Obama Administration since his election occurred during summers and the worst was in August 2011.

 

China’s Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd. said it expects losses in the first half to widen after customers canceling orders forced it to cut production.

World trade is now down 68% for the year to date and down 38% in the last year and at a 15 year low.  It is down 88% since 2007 before Obama.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

This is how American Free Enterprise has the solution.

First, here is how the solution of the Obama leftists always makes things worse.

The leftists complain that fat cat corporations are making too much profit and paying the executives too much so they have to tax the corporations more. 

The corporations respond by keeping money in banks overseas since they only pay taxes when profit is returned to American shores.   This hurts reinvestment in American jobs.  The leftist responded by planning to tax profits kept overseas. 

The corporations responded instantly by moving their headquarters overseas, registering their corporation overseas and dissolving the American corporation.  They lay off American workers.

The leftist responded by changing the rules and saying overseas corporations still have to pay American taxes if more than 50% of their business if done in America.

Now the American corporations are planning to sell off or shut down their American facilities raising American unemployment further and helping American hating leftists destroy the American economy.  That is the stupid America hating leftist economic planner’s scenario.  

 

But the solution of American Free Enterprise works as follows.The American Free Enterprise people complain that fat cat corporations are making too much and paying the executives too much because they are not paying dividends or expanding production and are instead robbing the share holders blind while they are cheating other Americans by paying little or no taxes at all.

The American Free Enterprise people respond limiting executive pay to no more than 100 times the higher of; the average wage of any American employed by the company or USA company supplier or, 200 times the average wage of any foreigner employed by the company or company supplier.  This is fair for Americans and limits the exploitation of sweat shop workers. 

In addition the American Free Enterprise people respond replacing the corporate income tax with a more appropriate value added Federal tax on all American Corporations similar to the EU amount of 20% but only on the value added by the corporation above and beyond the costs of all the materials and labor used the supply chain.  In addition it is managed the way the EU manages theirs.  It is built into the product purchaser’s cost.  Foreign trade improves because foreign individuals and corporations do not pay the tax.  The American trade balance would benefit enormously and American jobs would grow tremendously.   

 The problem with Obama, Kerry and Hillary and others such as Putin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, and all the national religious dictators or nationalist socialists, internationalist socialists, or religious dictators or other want-to-be dictators is they hate the free enterprise economy or are just stupid socialists who failed Economics 101.  Most never even attended Economics 101.

Jul 25 Russia's middle-class increasingly made up of government employees not business leaders. Communist studies show that the majority of Russians approve of Putin's annexation of Crimea, and management of the Ukraine land grab. Yet state statistics show that five times more Russians are emigrating in Putin's third term. They need to throw the bum out!

Jul 23  Stock market 'Black Swan' fear is at record high now says Anthony Mirhaydari of the Fiscal Times.  Small Cap stocks are the market to peak at highs.  Komal Sri-Kumar, President of Sri-Kumal Global Strategies and a senior fellow at the Milken Institute says Yellen and the FED are not just making up the data, they are useless as far as stimulating economic growth.  They have only created a stock market bubble that will blow away $4Trillion in American wealth.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-economy-is-worse-than-you-think-185727383.html

 

Jul 22  Obama is rapidly making America into a chaotic third world country unable to lead and unwilling to follow anyone else.  It is becoming highly probable that Iran’s nuclear program will be bombed into oblivion within the next twelve months as the Obama administration and the Putin administration become irrelevant and the EU isolationists gather strength.

 

We see hope in a new generation who understand how unfairly the socialist welfare state is treating them.  They are being radicalized.

 

NASDAQ is now near 2000yr highs.  QE3 is still flowing into the economy but is scheduled to go to zero by October.  Then they plan to begin contracting but it is likely the socialists will balk as it could swing the election even further against them.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EIXIC+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

The way to help the bottom 20% of Americans in annual income is not a minimum wage but  with an earnings multiplier (negative tax rate) that would be 25% of income below the poverty level of about $20000/yr and decline to zero credit near the a median income of about $40,000/yr.  That would provide a real incentive to work.

 

World Economy

Jul 25 

Gold is low in price given the instability descending on the world as Moslem terrorists run amuck across the oil rich countries trying to create a Caliphate empire ruled by psychopathic killers.  It is no longer considered appropriate to gloss over Moslem’s mutilation of women and their preying on boys and girls once they reach the age of nine and can marry or join a harem. 

 

Jul 23  A Hamas rocket exploded Tuesday near Israel's main airport, prompting a ban on flights.  European political leaders warned against a rise in Moslem immigrant anti-Semitism after supporters of Hamas terrorism used racist slogans and rioted.

.

Jul 22  Putin was responsible for the death of 298 innocent travelers last week.  Putin gave Russian terrorists in the eastern Ukraine missiles capable of shooting down commercial aircraft above 15000 feet.  Then Russia tried to deny the fact and to blame the Ukrainian government.

 

The world is now in complete Obama chaos and Israel could now completely destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities once the Hamas missiles are all destroyed and the Iron Dome rockets are restocked.  Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey now see Iran and ISIS as the greatest threats to Mid East security and are beginning to realize that Israel is an oasis of sanity in a terrorist Moslem zone of human slaughter and abuse of women and all children from age of nine and up to maturity.

 

The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy and by-by.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

 

 

The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

American Economy

Jul 18

Mich Sentiment Jul 81.3 declined from 82.5 -

Leading Indicators Jun 0.3% declined from 0.5%

Jul 22

CPI Jun 0.3% flat 0.4% -

Core CPI Jun 0.1% deflationary 0.3% ---

FHFA Housing Price Index May 0.4% limping along 0.1%

Existing Home Sales Jun 5.04M limping along from4.91M

MBA Mortgage Index 07/19 2.4% wild scatter in data -3.6% 

Jul 23

The economic indicators under Obama socialism are almost as useless and those put out by China and Russia.  The economic growth corrected for inflation is nil.

Jul 24

Initial Claims 07/19 284K down from 302K  still too high compared to job openings.---

Continuing Claims 07/12 2500K flat from 2507K
New Home Sales Jun 406K sharply lower from 504K shows that the previous good news was an Obama administration fabrication. --
Jul 25 
Durable Orders Jun 0.7% up from -1.0% + high scatter
Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun 0.8% up from 0.0%+
 

The Markets

Jul 25  The US government will no longer guarantee that Money Market Funds do not break the buck.  That old guarantee protected cautious investors who invest in low interest short term debt so that they do not lose their shirts when a panic occurs and everyone tries to get into cash at one time.  Most “Great Depressions” are caused by panic selling not by economic catastrophes.  When the next stock market panic occurs volume will rise by a factor of three or four times the current average volume.  Stocks will plummet but typically within a few weeks they recover most of the losses. 

But soon after on the second plummet most people get the message and money flows out of the market for many months.  On average bear markets equities decline more than 50% in price.  This current market punished short sellers over the last two years so there are few shorting the market and that is why it is so overprices. 

We also no longer have short sellers as a cushion when they cover shorts because there are few shorts to cover.  So the next stock market panic will likely be sharper than recent panics.  That is good in a way if it is like the summer of 2011 and recovers almost as fast as it falls.  It is more in line with what one would expect with a meandering do-nothing, inept president like Jimmy Carter was when his policies cut off energy development like the current President did by stopping pipe line construction and offshore drilling.  The Jimmy Carter administration was also a foreign policy disaster like the current president.  We need a courageous forward looking president like Ronald Regan was to clean up Obama’s mess and bring peace to the troubled world Obama facilitated.

 

Jul 23

Insiders are now hunkering down for a period of turmoil on a scale that on the Skew measure, has never been seen before.  This can be seen with the S&P 500 SKEW index.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-black-swan-fear-record-182900100.html

 

Jul 22    Now the volatility index below is starting to rise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Volume and volatility indicators are also increasing on market declines.  The sharpest declines during the Obama Administration since his election occurred during summers and the worst was in August 2011.

 

World trade is now down 68% for the year to date and down 38% in the last year and at a 15 year low.  It is down 88% since 2007 before Obama.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Jul 18 Originally Putin gave the Russian terrorists in Ukrainian missiles that could shoot down low flying military aircraft up to 8000 feet above the ground. Then stupid Putin gave them missiles that could shoot down aircraft up to 60000 feet. Russian controlled stupid Ukrainian separatist terrorists shot down a commercial airliner using the Russian anti-aircraft rockets killing 295 adults and three babies. The Russians and their stupid Russian terrorists think they can blame it on the legal Ukrainian government by having Russian agents do the investigation. This is the third airplane the stupid Russian terrorists shot down this way but the last two were Ukrainian aircraft and 50 Ukrainians were killed in one of them. The stupid Russian terrorists first bragged that they shot down another Ukrainian aircraft just before they discovered it was a Malaysian commercial aircraft. Putin is very stupid if he thinks he will cover up his latest mess. He should pull out all his stupid Russian terrorists out of the Ukraine.

Puerto Rico heading toward default and must raise cash by Sept. 30.

 

Twitter reported abruptly slowing user growth and signs of a less-engaged audience, indicating growth has peaked before reaching profitability.

 

Microsoft planning massive job cuts.

American corporations are becoming foreign based companies at record numbers to avoid Obama tax harassment and costly harassing investigations.

 

Jul 15 Bank of America Corp reported a 43 percent drop in second-quarter profit, falling short of Wall Street estimates, as revenue from mortgages fell and government harassment costs continue because the CEO had resisted accepting the Country Wide Barney Obama liar loans in 2008.

 

M. Zukerman said, "There has been a distinctive odor of Obama administration hype lately about the national jobs report for June."  Last month full time jobs fell but Obama said we had excellent job growth (part time that is).  Since Obama took office full time employment has shrunk to less than 50% of the American labor force and 2.4 million Americans have left the labor force.  Most people will have the impression that the 288,000 jobs created last month were full-time. Not so. The Obama administration and much of the media trumpeting the figure overlooked that the government numbers didn't distinguish between new part-time and full-time jobs. Full-time jobs last month plunged by 523,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What has increased are part-time that soared by about 800,000.  You can see the full story by doing a search on date, author, and part of the article title.

 

The misery and instability throughout the world with President Husein Obama has not been this bad since the 70’s with President Jimmy.   See “An Arc of Instability Unseen Since the 70’s.” by Solomon.   A convergence of security crises is playing out around the globe, from the Palestinian territories and Iraq to Ukraine and the South China Sea, posing a serious challenge to President Barack Obama's foreign policy and reflecting a world in which U.S. global power seems increasingly tenuous. The breadth of global instability now unfolding hasn't been seen since the late 1970s, U.S. security strategists say, when the Soviet... You can see the full stories by doing a search on date, author, and part of the article title.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB20001424052702303984304580027431991682508?mod=itp_wsj&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB20001424052702303984304580027431991682508.html%3Fmod%3Ditp_wsj

 

Holder warns that terrorist emboldened by the Obama administration will attack America soon. Attorney General Eric Holder said he is concerned that Islamist fighters eventually would try to attack the U.S.   Epstein

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB20001424052702304668604580027533755139568?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB20001424052702304668604580027533755139568.html

 

Corruption (especially by environmentalists) is seriously harming scientific credibility said Hank Campbell.  The Corruption of Peer Review Is Harming Scientific Credibility.  Academic publishing was rocked by the news on July 8 that a company called Sage Publications is retracting 60 papers from its Journal said a researcher had exploited peer review so that certain papers were sure to get a positive review for placement in the journal. In one case, a paper's author gave glowing reviews to his own work using phony names.

 

Migrants flood the American boarders and Obama signs them up to vote for more welfare socialism.  Backlash is coming. The British have a new catchy popular song about open border injustice and jihad.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/wq_lhlIn1e0

 

World Economy

Jul 18  A Russian-made air-defense missile hit the Malaysian Airline plane that crashed in stupid Russian terrorist controlled Ukraine killing 295 adults and three babies.

China’s new-home prices fell in a record number of cities tracked by the government as developers cut prices to try to boost sales volume, signaling a continued economic slowdown in China.

Greek bonds have rallied since Greece undertook the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history. That allowed the government to raise 4.5 billion Euros in three- and five-year bonds.

 

Jul 15  Ukraine has accused Russia of violating its air space, once again allowing weapons and fighters to cross its border to aid Russian rebels and massing Russian troops on the frontier.

 

The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy and by-by.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

 

 

The French market is only about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 

The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

American Economy

US home building and sales have dropped sharply.

 

Jul 15

Retail Sales Jun 0.2% down sharply from 0.5% ---

Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.4% flat from 0.4% -

Empire Manufacturing Jul 25.6 up from 19.3 +

Export Prices ex-ag. Jun -0.3% down from 0.1% --

Import Prices ex-oil Jun -0.1% flat from 0.0% -

Business Inventories May 0.5% flat from 0.6%

Jul 16

MBA Mortgage Index 07/12 -3.6% down sharply from 1.9%---

PPI Jun 0.4% inflation up from-0.2% -

Core PPI Jun 0.2% inflation up from-0.1% -

Net Long-Term TIC Flows May $19.4B up from -$24.2B +++

Industrial Production Jun 0.2% down from 0.6% ---

Capacity Utilization Jun 79.1% flat 79.1% 

Jul 17

Initial Claims 07/12 302K flat 304K

Housing Starts Jun 893K sharply lower from 1001K -----

Building Permits Jun 963K sharply lover 991K -----

The peak housing season is a disaster

 

The Markets

Jul 18  Volume and volatility indicators are increasing on market declines.  The sharpest declines during the Obama Administration since his election occurred in summer.

 

Jul 16  QE doubled the price of stocks making takeovers easy with inflated borrowing against inflated valuations.  With a normal leverage of 20 the FED inflated the equities and other markets by over $80 trillion dollars.  That money has been moving off shore and has inflated equities and real estate around the world.  Now the FED realizes that if they start withdrawing the QE cash from the system it will cause a contraction.  This is the same dilemma Japan had in 1990 when they decided to not withdraw their QE.  The result has been a 24year recession for Japan as indicated by the chart below.  This is why Obama’s economics is such a losing situation.  Quantitative Easing did not rescue the American economy any more than this administration spreading drug addition and welcoming illegal immigrants helps America.  Obama is destroying America from the Oval Office.

 

Jul 15  About $100 billion has been added to equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past year, 10 times more than the previous 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Investment Company Institute.  The stock market is in uncharted territory as it was seven and fourteen years ago just before it plunged each time in excess of 50%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-13/individuals-pile-into-stocks-as-pros-say-bull-is-spent.html

 

World trade is now down 63.3% for the year to date and at a 15 year low.  It is down 85% since 2007 before Obama.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

The Obama administration has spied on and harassed many American allies as well as Americans. In fact the Obama administration assumes you are an enemy until you toe up to the line and pay a fine, support him, or make a large political contribution. He has already alienated more than half the American population and our allies Israel, and now Germany. He has completely destabilized the Mid East and is now in the process of destabilizing South and North America with his escalating immigration crisis. His worldwide destabilization could ultimately lead to another world war at worst or an economic meltdown.

The Obama administration with the support of teachers unions continues to harass private schools that are good enough to not require government support.  Any college good enough to balance its budget can expect to be sued by the Obama administration.

 

Don’t ever forget the 30,000 Mexicans that were criminally slaughtered during the Obama/Holder gun running scam that they ran to try to criminally implicate American gun owners

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2013/dgreenfield/obama-smuggles-guns-to-mexico-blames-2nd-amendment-for-mexican-gun-violence/

 

http://capoliticalnews.com/2012/04/27/eric-holder-gun-runner-to-mexican-drug-cartels/

 

World Economy

China’s economy continues to slow with a glut in vacant housing that will take away years of potential building.

Indian stocks are still at a record high but declined again, with the benchmark index posting its steepest weekly loss since December 2011.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

The momentum in U.K. economic growth has started to slow.

 

Ebola has killed 540 people in a West African outbreak according to the World Health Organization

 

The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy-by-by.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

The French market is about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

 

The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

American Economy

Jul 8

JOLTS - Job Openings May 4.635M down from 4.464M--

Consumer Credit May $19.6B $15.0B $16.3B $26.1B $26.8B

MBA Mortgage Index 07/05 1.9% up from -0.2% +

Jul 9

Quantitative easing to end in three months

Jul 10

Initial Claims 07/05 304K down from 315K but too high-

Continuing Claims 6/28 2584K up from 2574K ---- an extreme underestimate

Wholesale Inventories May 0.5 decline from 1.0% - 

On average the glacial cycle runs about 100000 years. Yes, there is global warming during this 50,000 yr period and then there is global cooling the next 50000 yr period. The Washington Post article from 1922 shows the climate was hotter 92 years ago than today and the Wall Street Journal has a confession of one of the EPA climate modelers. The reason why the EPA does not know this is because in 1991 the environmentalists in the UN decided to declare all the data during the industrial revolution inaccurate because with all that well known history pollution and thousands of people in London being asphyxiated the global temperature went down. So the threw out all the data that showed just how stupid EPA scientists are and only kept the data back to the year the temperature was lowest in the last century. Temperature data in the USA actually goes back to the 1700’s and the coldest year on the North American content occurred during in the middle of the Industrial Revolution.

 

November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post 91+ years ago show environmentalists were predicting the same things in 1922 that they are now and nothing has change in 92 years.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/science/globalwarming1922.asp

 

The Wall Street Journal prints confession that EPA Climate Change models are not run by scientists they are run by computer modelers to give the EPA every prediction they request.  This is the confession of one of their modelers.  Every model, including those predicting climate doom, can and are corruptly tweaked to yield a desired result by the EPA’s Junk scientists. 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/confessions-of-a-computer-modeler-1404861351

 

That is why more than 20000 intelligent scientists and engineers signed atomic physicist Edward Tellers petition.  Environmental scientists have all the competence of Tarot card readers.  Liberals hated Edward Teller for shutting down the traitors leaking the US atomic bomb secrets to the USSR and China.  Teller testified, "I feel I would prefer to see the vital interests of this country in hands that I understand better and therefore trust more." The clearance was taken away because of evidence that Oppenheimer had many associations with communists, and had lied about them.

July 5 Things will not get better until the number of people joining the labor force is greater than the number joining the unemployment line. Only 264K joined the labor force while 315K signed up for unemployment this week and this incompetent administration and some stock market shysters declared this to be another sign of recovery.

World Economy

July 5   Things are stable in Greece and Turkey but are now shaky in Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. 

Qatar is now the world capital for identity theft of senior citizens in America.  They now have merchants in America who first prey on senior Americans and then go out of business so they cannot be traced.  Then they call the seniors they cheated and claim they discovered that these wonderful seniors have been mistreated and the mother company wants to refund their money, say $300.  But they need some information.  Once the senior is hooked they launder some money (say 2000) through the senior’s bank account and ask the senior to return the $1700 that was not the senior’s money.  They make up any story the senior is willing to believe such as their bank could not make transactions less than $2000 but would they please FEDEX the $1700 they owe back to Qatar.  The senior is now $300 ahead and thinks the thieves are honest.  Next they say they have clients who would like US dollars and offer the same exchange where for every $2000 the senior accepts he can keep $300 but the criminals need a little more information for security purposes.  This looks like a good deal because the senior will make $300 every time they transfer $1700 back by Fedex.   (The ammounts can vary). By now the thieves have enough information to hack in and gradually transfer all the senior’s money to Qatar and close out the thieves Qatar accounts so they cannot be traced.  The Qatar government may even be aware this is happening. 

This happened to seniors we know and we called them and they could not believe it was identity theft so then we called their daughter and she took them to the bank the next morning and in three days the thieves had stolen their identity and already transferred $6000 out of their accounts directly to Qatar.  The bank then changed their account numbers and issued a warning to all their other clients.  It was a $6000 lesson in addition to be wary of local merchants who know very little English.  They were first overbilled and gave the foreigner access to all the names addresses and accounts on their computer.

  Remove all files that contain identity information before taking your computer to a computer repair store... or at minimum only keep coded acct names and passwords in a form leaving out certain numbers and letters that you always can remember eg.  parts of old telephone numbers joined with short names.  Keep a complete written list hidden at home for backup.  Computer store personnel are usually honest but they tend to be expert hackers just so they can get into and clean up a computer.  Go American.  If they can’t speak English correctly, that cannot be a sign of trouble.

 

The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy-by-by.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI+Basic+Chart&t=my

 

The French market is about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my

 

The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

American Economy

Jun 30

Chicago PMI Jun 62.6 down from 65.5 --

Pending Home Sales May 6.1% up from 0.4% +++

Jul 1

ISM Index Jun 55.3 down from 55.4 -

Construction Spending May 0.1% down from 0.8% ---

Jul 2

MBA Mortgage Index 06/28 -0.2% down again -1.0% --

Factory Orders May -0.5% down sharply from 0.8% ---

Jul 3

Challenger Job Cuts Jun -20.2% sharply lower 45.5% + outlier

Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 288K up from 224K - outlier plus government expansion

Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun 262K up from 224K ++ but initial claims was 315K

264K joined the labor force and 315K signed up for unemployment. 

Unemployment Rate Jun 6.1% meaningless vs. 6.3% -

Due to drop in weeks unemployment compensation from 99 to 52

Hourly Earnings Jun 0.2% flat 0.2% -

Average Workweek Jun 34.5 flat 34.5 -

Initial Claims 06/28 315K flat from 313K --- Also exceeds payroll growth

Continuing Claims 06/21 2579K increased 2571K ---

Trade Balance May -$44.4B deficit down slightly -$47.2B

ISM Services Jun 56.0 got worse from 56.3 --

 

The Markets

They are still in the stratosphere with QE still stimulating at $35Billion time a factor of 20 times higher leverage per month.  But that is first going to drop to zero they say this year.  And then they say it will sit there for a while and slowly go negative draining money out of the markets at a leveraged rate 20 times higher.   It is not possible to predict a market top when the government is throwing money at the economy and it is all going into financial markets that pay almost nothing and are inflated.  But it is unsound to buy at market highs when the economies are in the hands of incompetent people who throw money at every problem and accomplish nothing in the end.  The left wing keeps throwing money at teacher’s unions for pensions in order to get campaign contributions but our children have dropped from being #1 in the world in 1963 and we ranked only  #27 in 2013.

 

World trade is now down 60% for the year to date and at a 15 year low.  It is down 84% since 2007 before Obama.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

 

 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

 

 World market updates:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia