World Outlook
When the best students in Iran support any candidate other than the ruling leftist party candidate they are now considered dangerous radicals and are given a star by their name. That star means they are no longer permitted to have an education or hold a government job in Iran. They can be farmers instead. It is political correctness carried to an extreme. In Quebec the French leftists go around forcing the stores to have their signage written in French. In the USA the leftists picket news commentators who speak against giving illegal aliens drivers licenses or amnesty. Leftists force Americans to have signage in Spanish the language of most illegal aliens. The leftist culture in general despises competition and free enterprise.
In France yesterday the courts threw out the French tax on CO2 emissions. It seems sunlight causes tree rings to grow larger, and temperatures to rise not CO2 as the leftists decree. It is known that heating the oceans causes the dissolved CO2 to come out of solution and into the atmosphere too. So sunlight causes more CO2 and higher temperatures. CO2 and temperature rise together due to the sun and that is the reason for the corelation.
JAL is headed for bankruptcy! This is quite incredible as it was once considered the most successful airline (at least by the Japanese). It was said that the flight line mechanics are under such cultural pressure to report "perfect" results that problems are sometimes signed off on as though they do not exist.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly. Retail Sales in U.S. Increased 2.3% Christmas Week on Last-Minute Shopping.
Treasury bill auction Demand held strong at the weekly 3- and 6-month auctions, posting solid coverage at 3.39 and 3.57 with the 3-Month Bill Treasury Rate at only 0.110%.
Consumer Confidence rose slightly to 52% but appears to be relatively flat and uninspiring. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
Jim Cramer likes to quote the Baltic Index of international sea trade in goods carried by ships. But with Jim he is a broken clock and only quotes it when it is good. But now it is showing another dip.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer PMI rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. But remember Chicago is Obama's hometown and is being flooded with stimulus funds.
Underscoring the continued weakness of the nation’s housing market, new home sales declined 11.3% in November 2009 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000 units, according to figures released by the U.S. Commerce Department.
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 31
During the past week the news came out that investors all year were leaving stocks in droves moving to corporate bonds driving up the bond market thus relieving the pressure on interest rates. That bubble will burst as interest rates begin to reflect the trillion-dollar infusion of stimulus in the US alone. Interest rates will then rise independent of the FED and gold and other commodities will rise. Higher interest and inflation historically neuter the overall stock market.
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, India up 0.8%, and Japan down -0.9%.
European markets are declining with the average in a range from -0.9% to 0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures flat at about 0.1% today at 9:00 AM EST.
We are now 66% Money Market preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the old high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Market stagnation becoming evident
World Outlook
Cameras are a major deterrent to crime and terrorism. In Europe they are used even for issuing speeding tickets. But leftists in the USA who hate America are the vocal opposition to cameras. The self loathing leftist-communist-socialists in America see no problem in issuing American drivers licenses to illegal aliens and terrorists. Yes, and visa's too so they can bomb Americans. Presidents Clinton and Obama have had many leftists infiltrate the FBI, CIA, and Homeland Security that they have put the lives of good American agents in danger by disclosing their identities and by disclosing American anti-terrorist activities. And when one leftist CIA agent was outted for sending her husband on a boondoggle mission to intentionally corrupt CIA intelligence concerning African uranium shipments to radical Arab states… the entire leftist-communist-socialist world had a tizzy and attacked President Bush. The leftists have infiltrated our national security but Obama administration incompetence, not conspiracy is still the major security threat America faces today.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly. Retail Sales in U.S. Increased 2.3% Christmas Week on Last-Minute Shopping.
Treasury bill auction Demand held strong at the weekly 3- and 6-month auctions, posting solid coverage at 3.39 and 3.57 with the 3-Month Bill Treasury Rate at only 0.110%.
Consumer Confidence rose slightly to 52% but appears to be relatively flat and uninspiring. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
Jim Cramer likes to quote the Baltic Index of international sea trade in goods carried by ships. But with Jim he is a broken clock and only quotes it when it is good. But now it is showing another dip.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Wednesday, Dec 30
Chicago PMI
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 30
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were down slightly over night; China up 1.6%, Hong Kong down -0.0%, India down -0.3%, and Japan down -0.9%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.4% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down by about 0.5% today at 8:00 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the old high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Cameras are a major deterrent to crime and terrorism. In Europe they are used even for issuing speeding tickets. But leftists in the USA who hate America are the vocal opposition to cameras. The self loathing leftist-communist-socialists in America see no problem in issuing American drivers licenses to illegal aliens and terrorists. Yes, and visa's too so they can bomb Americans. Presidents Clinton and Obama have had many leftists infiltrate the FBI, CIA, and Homeland Security that they have put the lives of good American agents in danger by disclosing their identities and by disclosing American anti-terrorist activities. And when one leftist CIA agent was outted for sending her husband on a boondoggle mission to intentionally corrupt CIA intelligence concerning African uranium shipments to radical Arab states… the entire leftist-communist-socialist world had a tizzy and attacked President Bush. The leftists have infiltrated our national security but Obama administration incompetence, not conspiracy is still the major security threat America faces today.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly. Retail Sales in U.S. Increased 2.3% Christmas Week on Last-Minute Shopping.
Treasury bill auction Demand held strong at the weekly 3- and 6-month auctions, posting solid coverage at 3.39 and 3.57 with the 3-Month Bill Treasury Rate at only 0.110%.
Consumer Confidence rose slightly to 52% but appears to be relatively flat and uninspiring. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
Jim Cramer likes to quote the Baltic Index of international sea trade in goods carried by ships. But with Jim he is a broken clock and only quotes it when it is good. But now it is showing another dip.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Wednesday, Dec 30
Chicago PMI
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 30
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were down slightly over night; China up 1.6%, Hong Kong down -0.0%, India down -0.3%, and Japan down -0.9%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.4% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down by about 0.5% today at 8:00 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the old high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Santa rally unbroken six days so far
World Outlook
Fortunately terrorists are even less competent than our homeland security. Homeland security still prefers searching you and I and our grandmothers than terrorists trained in Yemen because that shows they are politically correct and not discriminating against terrorists. This particular a Moslem terrorist had a degree in engineering from a college in London but fortunately was too ignorant to know that plastic explosives only burn (they do not detonate) when lit with a match.
Market Outlook:
Advice.
Go to:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI
See the two year plot of the Shanghai Composite vs. the USA from when this market downturn began. Observe how China led the US markets down and then up as we have been saying all year. Notice China has not set a new high. When we correct for volume on up and down days the NYSE is forming a head and shoulder sell signal that looks like what is happening to China. Our Market Cash Flow index has been calling for going to the security of the sidelines since the beginning of November. Notice that the US markets have done better overall in this down market. But over five years the US market has gone nowhere and China is up about 150%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI
This Week
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly. Retail Sales in U.S. Increased 2.3% Christmas Week on Last-Minute Shopping.
Treasury bill auction Demand held strong at the weekly 3- and 6-month auctions, posting solid coverage at 3.39 and 3.57 with the 3-Month Bill Treasury Rate at only 0.110%.
Tuesday, Dec. 29
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Dec 30
Chicago PMI
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 29
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China up 0.7%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.2% , and Japan up 0.1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.2% to 0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.3% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Fortunately terrorists are even less competent than our homeland security. Homeland security still prefers searching you and I and our grandmothers than terrorists trained in Yemen because that shows they are politically correct and not discriminating against terrorists. This particular a Moslem terrorist had a degree in engineering from a college in London but fortunately was too ignorant to know that plastic explosives only burn (they do not detonate) when lit with a match.
Market Outlook:
Advice.
Go to:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI
See the two year plot of the Shanghai Composite vs. the USA from when this market downturn began. Observe how China led the US markets down and then up as we have been saying all year. Notice China has not set a new high. When we correct for volume on up and down days the NYSE is forming a head and shoulder sell signal that looks like what is happening to China. Our Market Cash Flow index has been calling for going to the security of the sidelines since the beginning of November. Notice that the US markets have done better overall in this down market. But over five years the US market has gone nowhere and China is up about 150%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5EDJI
This Week
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly. Retail Sales in U.S. Increased 2.3% Christmas Week on Last-Minute Shopping.
Treasury bill auction Demand held strong at the weekly 3- and 6-month auctions, posting solid coverage at 3.39 and 3.57 with the 3-Month Bill Treasury Rate at only 0.110%.
Tuesday, Dec. 29
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Dec 30
Chicago PMI
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 29
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up slightly over night; China up 0.7%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, India up 0.2% , and Japan up 0.1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.2% to 0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.3% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Happy New Year
Late posting today
World Outlook
Britain will tax the obscene bonuses the bakers paid themselves this year.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. Treasury Department said today it would remove the caps on assistance to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the next three years to alleviate market concern about the effect of a double dip recession and new record foreclosures. The two government bureaucracies have been noted for corruption and waste. They are the largest sources of mortgage zero down financing in the U.S. for inner city housing scams. Previously the taxpayers were only liable for caps of $200 billion each in backstop capital from the Treasury. Under the new agreement, these caps can rise as needed to cover net continued use of scams involving "the don't ask if they don't tell" policy Senator's Rangle and Dodd still not stopped. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have already given away $111 billion in assistance to people who should not have been permitted to purchase real estate. Another market panic could occur at any time. The Wall Street Journal today showed the history of the DOW with and without adjustment for inflation. The current malaise began during Bill Clinton's last term and shows no sign of abatement.
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly.
This Week
Monday, Dec. 28
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Dec. 29
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Dec 30
Chicago PMI
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 28
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.73% from friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up over night; China up 1.5%, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India holiday, and Japan up 1.3%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 5% to 0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.4% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
World Outlook
Britain will tax the obscene bonuses the bakers paid themselves this year.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. Treasury Department said today it would remove the caps on assistance to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the next three years to alleviate market concern about the effect of a double dip recession and new record foreclosures. The two government bureaucracies have been noted for corruption and waste. They are the largest sources of mortgage zero down financing in the U.S. for inner city housing scams. Previously the taxpayers were only liable for caps of $200 billion each in backstop capital from the Treasury. Under the new agreement, these caps can rise as needed to cover net continued use of scams involving "the don't ask if they don't tell" policy Senator's Rangle and Dodd still not stopped. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have already given away $111 billion in assistance to people who should not have been permitted to purchase real estate. Another market panic could occur at any time. The Wall Street Journal today showed the history of the DOW with and without adjustment for inflation. The current malaise began during Bill Clinton's last term and shows no sign of abatement.
Seasonal retail sales are up 3.6% and newly unemployed were down slightly.
This Week
Monday, Dec. 28
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Dec. 29
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Dec 30
Chicago PMI
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 31
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jan.1:
Markets closed for New Year's Day
Market forces December 28
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.73% from friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up over night; China up 1.5%, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India holiday, and Japan up 1.3%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 5% to 0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.4% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Silent night and a merry Christmas
The holiday season brings a calming effect to the financial markets and the world of good and rational people.
World Outlook
The struggle between world good and evil continues as the US Senate is expected to pass another insidious health care bill on the eve of Christmas. This type of evil is hardly noticeable to Chinese, Russia, or Japanese cultures. Homogeneous nations where the people share the same values are less likely to see segments of the population misuse government social and health services. The evil is only slightly noticeable in European and British cultures. But the injustice and evil is clear to every rational person in America because America is a conglomeration of very diverse cultures.
In American we have Moslems with strong work ethics who happen to hate Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus (all other religions and western culture to boot) to such an extent that they travel to Pakistan to be trained to kill other Americans.
In America we have destitute illiterates from Haiti and other places that come from hell holes that lack work ethics and have drug and crime cultures. Third world work ethics are virtually "don't worry be happy type" dysfunctional work ethics that produce extreme poverty.
From Mexico we are invaded by drug cartels that have even been discovered growing illegal cocaine and marijuana in America's national forests!
In America we have South Americans who refuse to assimilate or even speak the national language that was once established to be English. This means that gradually the Americans who love America and have a strong work ethic are becoming a minority.
Capable Americans who happen to hate America's culture have united with dysfunctional Americans who hate America's work ethic and together they are becoming a voting majority. They love government handouts and free government services and they are turning America into a dysfunctional socialist third world country. They voted in a veto proof democrat-socialist president and congress for the first time in American history and America under their leadership is making great strides towards becoming a self loathing, fractious, banana republic ripe with government tyranny, corruption, and totalitarianism.
Happy Holidays!
Market Outlook:
This Week
Monday, the Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.040 percent last week. An additional $31 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.170 percent, up from 0.160 percent last week. The three-month rate and six-month rate were the highest since October when the amounts auctioned were greater. The Fed held its final meeting of the year last week and once again voted to keep its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it's stood since last December.
Home resales rose by 7.4% to a 6.54 million annual rate from 6.09 million in October, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
Inventories kept shrinking. Prices fell -- but the decline was the smallest in two years.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a 3.3% increase in sales during November, to a rate of 6.30 million.
The report Tuesday was another positive for the housing market, recovering from a big bust. Year over year, resales were 44.1% higher last month than the level in November 2008. October existing-home sales rose a revised 9.9%; originally, NAR said sales surged 10.1%.
The average 30-year mortgage rate was 4.88% in November, down from 4.95% in October, Freddie Mac data showed. The NAR reported the median price for an existing home last month was $172,600, down 4.3% from $180,300 in November 2008. The decline was the smallest since a 4.1% drop in November 2007.
Inventories of previously owned homes decreased by 1.3% at the end of November to 3.52 million available for sale.
The US economy limped forward at a 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter, according to government figures Tuesday that showed a downward revision of gross domestic product (GDP). This is the second Obama government revision from the original Obama bogus 3.5% rate.
Corporate profits in the third quarter were revised down but were still up from the second quarter. Corporate profits were revised to $1.174 trillion from the earlier estimate of $1.181 trillion annualized. Profits in the third quarter were up 68.0 percent from a year earlier.
Sales of existing homes grew 7.4% in November compared with 10% in October to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index rose 0.2% in October, marking the first increase since August 2008. Consumer Income increased modestly.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales plummeted 11.3% to 355,000 in November compared to the prior month, a Census Bureau report said Wednesday.
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wants President Barack Obama to bail out their anticipated $21 billion deficit.
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
Merry Christmas!
Market forces December 24
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up over night; China up 2.6%, Hong Kong up 0.9%, India up 0.8%, and Japan up 1.5%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.2% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
World Outlook
The struggle between world good and evil continues as the US Senate is expected to pass another insidious health care bill on the eve of Christmas. This type of evil is hardly noticeable to Chinese, Russia, or Japanese cultures. Homogeneous nations where the people share the same values are less likely to see segments of the population misuse government social and health services. The evil is only slightly noticeable in European and British cultures. But the injustice and evil is clear to every rational person in America because America is a conglomeration of very diverse cultures.
In American we have Moslems with strong work ethics who happen to hate Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus (all other religions and western culture to boot) to such an extent that they travel to Pakistan to be trained to kill other Americans.
In America we have destitute illiterates from Haiti and other places that come from hell holes that lack work ethics and have drug and crime cultures. Third world work ethics are virtually "don't worry be happy type" dysfunctional work ethics that produce extreme poverty.
From Mexico we are invaded by drug cartels that have even been discovered growing illegal cocaine and marijuana in America's national forests!
In America we have South Americans who refuse to assimilate or even speak the national language that was once established to be English. This means that gradually the Americans who love America and have a strong work ethic are becoming a minority.
Capable Americans who happen to hate America's culture have united with dysfunctional Americans who hate America's work ethic and together they are becoming a voting majority. They love government handouts and free government services and they are turning America into a dysfunctional socialist third world country. They voted in a veto proof democrat-socialist president and congress for the first time in American history and America under their leadership is making great strides towards becoming a self loathing, fractious, banana republic ripe with government tyranny, corruption, and totalitarianism.
Happy Holidays!
Market Outlook:
This Week
Monday, the Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.040 percent last week. An additional $31 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.170 percent, up from 0.160 percent last week. The three-month rate and six-month rate were the highest since October when the amounts auctioned were greater. The Fed held its final meeting of the year last week and once again voted to keep its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it's stood since last December.
Home resales rose by 7.4% to a 6.54 million annual rate from 6.09 million in October, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
Inventories kept shrinking. Prices fell -- but the decline was the smallest in two years.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a 3.3% increase in sales during November, to a rate of 6.30 million.
The report Tuesday was another positive for the housing market, recovering from a big bust. Year over year, resales were 44.1% higher last month than the level in November 2008. October existing-home sales rose a revised 9.9%; originally, NAR said sales surged 10.1%.
The average 30-year mortgage rate was 4.88% in November, down from 4.95% in October, Freddie Mac data showed. The NAR reported the median price for an existing home last month was $172,600, down 4.3% from $180,300 in November 2008. The decline was the smallest since a 4.1% drop in November 2007.
Inventories of previously owned homes decreased by 1.3% at the end of November to 3.52 million available for sale.
The US economy limped forward at a 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter, according to government figures Tuesday that showed a downward revision of gross domestic product (GDP). This is the second Obama government revision from the original Obama bogus 3.5% rate.
Corporate profits in the third quarter were revised down but were still up from the second quarter. Corporate profits were revised to $1.174 trillion from the earlier estimate of $1.181 trillion annualized. Profits in the third quarter were up 68.0 percent from a year earlier.
Sales of existing homes grew 7.4% in November compared with 10% in October to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index rose 0.2% in October, marking the first increase since August 2008. Consumer Income increased modestly.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales plummeted 11.3% to 355,000 in November compared to the prior month, a Census Bureau report said Wednesday.
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wants President Barack Obama to bail out their anticipated $21 billion deficit.
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
Merry Christmas!
Market forces December 24
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. However the Spiral (Parabolic SAR) indicator and the MACD are now more optimistic.
Asian markets were up over night; China up 2.6%, Hong Kong up 0.9%, India up 0.8%, and Japan up 1.5%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.2% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a possible market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to the high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Obama administration made a record 38% error in the reported US 3rd quarter GDP
One way to continually mislead Americans is to provide bad data as the Obama administration and the UN global warming sycophants are doing. Global warming is another socialist wealth distribution system that accomplishes nothing but world injustice and the tyranny of the majority who envy productive people. Ultimately Atlas shrugs but not first without the terrible price and terror of communism and fascism. Prior to the fall of European communism the economic statistics of the communists were always fabricated the way the Obama administration is doing today.
For example Obama originally reported that the US economy leaped ahead 3.5% in the third quarter. That was to make the socialists look like their porkulus package was working. Then it was revised down to 2.8% and then on Dec 21 it was reduced to only 2.2 % indicating the number had been inflated by 38% socialist/communist spin. When the fourth Quarter GDP comes out the third quarter will be revised downward again so that the fourth quarter can be quoted even higher and Obama can take credit again. Socialists Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, and on down to Breznev and Saddam all believed the ends justify the means and that truth is whatever the people can be convinced to believe.
Administration corruption is at an all time high. We know it is corruption when someone uses political connections to facilitate the transfer of taxpayer or state worker retirement funds to a group that pays the facilitator for his political services. That is to say that we know it is corruption when a politician takes money from a hedge fund for services the politician renders by misappropriating taxpayer or state worker retirement funds. But we do not discover the corruption until the fund loses the money and it becomes public. Yet the American Congress and the Obama administration has become so corrupt they see nothing wrong with a congressman blackmailing congress for hundreds of millions of taxpayer funds for a socialize medicine vote when in return for that blackmailing, the congressman gets $400,000 a year in federal job benefits and $1million in eventual retirement benefits for getting his state an exemption from some of the consequences of socialized medicine. It is both corruptions of the legislative process and teaching the voting public that corruption is ok as long as some less favored electorate pays the price. The democrat-socialist congress is blatantly buying votes to pass socialized medicine. This is an outrage.
World Outlook
Investors who mistakenly bought bonds before are now buying stocks at their highs. There is evidence that long-term rates and inflation are now creeping up. That will devastate world-wide bond holders because the faster the rates rise the faster the face value of the bonds will decline. It will put tremendous pressure on socialist governments with large indigent political hack government job sectors such as Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Spain, New York City, and California.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Monday, the Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.040 percent last week. An additional $31 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.170 percent, up from 0.160 percent last week. The three-month rate and six-month rate were the highest since October when the amounts auctioned were greater. The Fed held its final meeting of the year last week and once again voted to keep its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it's stood since last December.
Home resales rose by 7.4% to a 6.54 million annual rate from 6.09 million in October, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
Inventories kept shrinking. Prices fell -- but the decline was the smallest in two years.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a 3.3% increase in sales during November, to a rate of 6.30 million.
The report Tuesday was another positive for the housing market, recovering from a big bust. Year over year, resales were 44.1% higher last month than the level in November 2008. October existing-home sales rose a revised 9.9%; originally, NAR said sales surged 10.1%.
The average 30-year mortgage rate was 4.88% in November, down from 4.95% in October, Freddie Mac data showed. The NAR reported the median price for an existing home last month was $172,600, down 4.3% from $180,300 in November 2008. The decline was the smallest since a 4.1% drop in November 2007.
Inventories of previously owned homes decreased by 1.3% at the end of November to 3.52 million available for sale.
The US economy limped forward at a 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter, according to government figures Tuesday that showed a downward revision of gross domestic product (GDP). This is the second Obama government revision from the original Obama bogus 3.5% rate.
Corporate profits in the third quarter were revised down but were still up from the second quarter. Corporate profits were revised to $1.174 trillion from the earlier estimate of $1.181 trillion annualized. Profits in the third quarter were up 68.0 percent from a year earlier.
Sales of existing homes grew 7.4% in November compared with 10% in October to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
Consumer Income
Consumer Sentiment
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day
Market forces December 23
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded.
Asian markets were up over night; China up 0.8%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, India up 3.2%, and Japan closed.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to 0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.2% today at 9:00 AM EST.
We are preparing for a market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
For example Obama originally reported that the US economy leaped ahead 3.5% in the third quarter. That was to make the socialists look like their porkulus package was working. Then it was revised down to 2.8% and then on Dec 21 it was reduced to only 2.2 % indicating the number had been inflated by 38% socialist/communist spin. When the fourth Quarter GDP comes out the third quarter will be revised downward again so that the fourth quarter can be quoted even higher and Obama can take credit again. Socialists Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, and on down to Breznev and Saddam all believed the ends justify the means and that truth is whatever the people can be convinced to believe.
Administration corruption is at an all time high. We know it is corruption when someone uses political connections to facilitate the transfer of taxpayer or state worker retirement funds to a group that pays the facilitator for his political services. That is to say that we know it is corruption when a politician takes money from a hedge fund for services the politician renders by misappropriating taxpayer or state worker retirement funds. But we do not discover the corruption until the fund loses the money and it becomes public. Yet the American Congress and the Obama administration has become so corrupt they see nothing wrong with a congressman blackmailing congress for hundreds of millions of taxpayer funds for a socialize medicine vote when in return for that blackmailing, the congressman gets $400,000 a year in federal job benefits and $1million in eventual retirement benefits for getting his state an exemption from some of the consequences of socialized medicine. It is both corruptions of the legislative process and teaching the voting public that corruption is ok as long as some less favored electorate pays the price. The democrat-socialist congress is blatantly buying votes to pass socialized medicine. This is an outrage.
World Outlook
Investors who mistakenly bought bonds before are now buying stocks at their highs. There is evidence that long-term rates and inflation are now creeping up. That will devastate world-wide bond holders because the faster the rates rise the faster the face value of the bonds will decline. It will put tremendous pressure on socialist governments with large indigent political hack government job sectors such as Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Spain, New York City, and California.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Monday, the Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.040 percent last week. An additional $31 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.170 percent, up from 0.160 percent last week. The three-month rate and six-month rate were the highest since October when the amounts auctioned were greater. The Fed held its final meeting of the year last week and once again voted to keep its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it's stood since last December.
Home resales rose by 7.4% to a 6.54 million annual rate from 6.09 million in October, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
Inventories kept shrinking. Prices fell -- but the decline was the smallest in two years.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a 3.3% increase in sales during November, to a rate of 6.30 million.
The report Tuesday was another positive for the housing market, recovering from a big bust. Year over year, resales were 44.1% higher last month than the level in November 2008. October existing-home sales rose a revised 9.9%; originally, NAR said sales surged 10.1%.
The average 30-year mortgage rate was 4.88% in November, down from 4.95% in October, Freddie Mac data showed. The NAR reported the median price for an existing home last month was $172,600, down 4.3% from $180,300 in November 2008. The decline was the smallest since a 4.1% drop in November 2007.
Inventories of previously owned homes decreased by 1.3% at the end of November to 3.52 million available for sale.
The US economy limped forward at a 2.2 percent pace in the third quarter, according to government figures Tuesday that showed a downward revision of gross domestic product (GDP). This is the second Obama government revision from the original Obama bogus 3.5% rate.
Corporate profits in the third quarter were revised down but were still up from the second quarter. Corporate profits were revised to $1.174 trillion from the earlier estimate of $1.181 trillion annualized. Profits in the third quarter were up 68.0 percent from a year earlier.
Sales of existing homes grew 7.4% in November compared with 10% in October to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
Consumer Income
Consumer Sentiment
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day
Market forces December 23
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded.
Asian markets were up over night; China up 0.8%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, India up 3.2%, and Japan closed.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to 0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.2% today at 9:00 AM EST.
We are preparing for a market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to high where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Investors who have profited from the early gains are taking their profits now
World Outlook
As Shanghai goes, so goes the world economy. Since its collapse in 2008, the Shanghai Index has been in recovery mode and the thermometer for predicting the level of world economic activity because it is now an engine of product production.
Two months ago this Middle Kingdom was the most active region of a country full of growth and investment potential. But then we pointed out that the Shanghai Index had plummeted more than 20% and had flat-lined at that level of activity. We suggested that the American markets were also beginning to flat-line especially when you looked at the declining level of volume activity. Unfortunately the correction does not seem to be over. The market peaked in August and has been unable to make a single new high since then.
For one thing the Chinese “Growth Enterprise Market” is now causing a liquidity squeeze for existing enterprises as capital is being reallocated to new investments. There’s a glut of public offerings. This isn’t a good time for the rush of IPOs as there just is not enough liquidity to accommodate the amount of planned new offerings.
It appears that China’s stimulus package has peaked and that the effects are starting to fade. The National Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday that profits at China’s major industrial companies fell 10.6% in the first eight months of 2009 compared to the same period last year. Premier Wen Jiabao said the country’s economic recovery is not stable. The near-term outlook is not optimistic, as there are significant and serious risks that need to be addressed. Investors who have profited from the early gains are taking their profits now as better buying opportunities will likely be presented in the coming weeks.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Monday, the Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.040 percent last week. An additional $31 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.170 percent, up from 0.160 percent last week. The three-month rate and six-month rate were the highest since October when the amounts auctioned were greater. The Fed held its final meeting of the year last week and once again voted to keep its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it's stood since last December. Most economists predict the Fed won't begin raising rates until the middle of 2010 when they are predicting that rate increases will be slow and gradual to ensure that inflation stays under control and do not derail the economy's tenuous recovery.
Tuesday, Dec. 22:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate profits
Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
Consumer Income
Consumer Sentiment
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day
Market forces December 22
The economy of the U.S. expanded in the third quarter at a slower pace than anticipated as companies curbed spending and cut inventories at an even faster pace. The 2.2 percent increase in gross domestic product from July through September compares with a 2.8 percent gain previously reported by the Commerce Department in Washington.
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China down -2.3%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India up 0.6%, and Japan up 1.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.3% to 0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.3% today at 9:00 AM EST.
We are preparing for a market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
As Shanghai goes, so goes the world economy. Since its collapse in 2008, the Shanghai Index has been in recovery mode and the thermometer for predicting the level of world economic activity because it is now an engine of product production.
Two months ago this Middle Kingdom was the most active region of a country full of growth and investment potential. But then we pointed out that the Shanghai Index had plummeted more than 20% and had flat-lined at that level of activity. We suggested that the American markets were also beginning to flat-line especially when you looked at the declining level of volume activity. Unfortunately the correction does not seem to be over. The market peaked in August and has been unable to make a single new high since then.
For one thing the Chinese “Growth Enterprise Market” is now causing a liquidity squeeze for existing enterprises as capital is being reallocated to new investments. There’s a glut of public offerings. This isn’t a good time for the rush of IPOs as there just is not enough liquidity to accommodate the amount of planned new offerings.
It appears that China’s stimulus package has peaked and that the effects are starting to fade. The National Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday that profits at China’s major industrial companies fell 10.6% in the first eight months of 2009 compared to the same period last year. Premier Wen Jiabao said the country’s economic recovery is not stable. The near-term outlook is not optimistic, as there are significant and serious risks that need to be addressed. Investors who have profited from the early gains are taking their profits now as better buying opportunities will likely be presented in the coming weeks.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Monday, the Treasury Department auctioned $30 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 0.070 percent, up from 0.040 percent last week. An additional $31 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 0.170 percent, up from 0.160 percent last week. The three-month rate and six-month rate were the highest since October when the amounts auctioned were greater. The Fed held its final meeting of the year last week and once again voted to keep its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent, where it's stood since last December. Most economists predict the Fed won't begin raising rates until the middle of 2010 when they are predicting that rate increases will be slow and gradual to ensure that inflation stays under control and do not derail the economy's tenuous recovery.
Tuesday, Dec. 22:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate profits
Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
Consumer Income
Consumer Sentiment
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day
Market forces December 22
The economy of the U.S. expanded in the third quarter at a slower pace than anticipated as companies curbed spending and cut inventories at an even faster pace. The 2.2 percent increase in gross domestic product from July through September compares with a 2.8 percent gain previously reported by the Commerce Department in Washington.
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China down -2.3%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India up 0.6%, and Japan up 1.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.3% to 0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.3% today at 9:00 AM EST.
We are preparing for a market decline in early 2010 that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Russia claims that the Global Warming cult massaged the data that Russian observatories provided.
While at least nine global warming (glacial) cycles occurred before modern man emerged we are in the tenth now and anyone with a brain and an honest disposition already admits global warming occurred long before mankind began burning fossil fuels and producing CO2. The only valid question is whether mankind is causing global warming to accelerate and get worse. To cause that result the anti-science global warming cult has been caught falsifying data to make it appear that the temperature rise is now hooking sharply upward. Now the Russians say the anti-science cult have been caught red handed. This is not the first time they have been caught but it is the first time an influential government has had the courage to speak up.
The hacking into the anti-science e-mail by Russians three weeks ago disclosed how the cult uses its influence on leftist in government to keep scientists from getting research grants or from publishing the truth in America and Britain.
World Outlook
The Christmas season is almost the exclusive custom of the advanced countries that enjoy western concepts of personal liberty, work ethic, personal integrity, love (charity), and tolerance of other beliefs systems. Because Christianity has fostered personal integrity and moral principles, the trust that is needed for free enterprise is present. When a people cannot trust their government's institutions, poverty and starvation persist. In America it is big news when leftists can find someone who claims they are hungry. At Christmas, the majority of the people in developed countries celebrate and therefore the market trading volume gets very low and the market tends to rise. Taking profits at the end of the year means there is very little use of the profits before they are taxed. Generally if the market is high it is better to take profits in January and use the profits for 14 months tax-free. Due to the run-up we saw from the March lows there is a higher probability that this year there will be a sell-off in January triggered by profit taking.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Today, Dec. 21:
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Dec. 22:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate profits
Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
Consumer Income
Consumer Sentiment
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day
Market forces December 21
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 4.4% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded.
Asian markets were down over night; China up 0.3%, Hong Kong down -1.1%, India down -0.7%, and Japan up 0.4%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.8% to 1.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.4% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a market decline that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
The hacking into the anti-science e-mail by Russians three weeks ago disclosed how the cult uses its influence on leftist in government to keep scientists from getting research grants or from publishing the truth in America and Britain.
World Outlook
The Christmas season is almost the exclusive custom of the advanced countries that enjoy western concepts of personal liberty, work ethic, personal integrity, love (charity), and tolerance of other beliefs systems. Because Christianity has fostered personal integrity and moral principles, the trust that is needed for free enterprise is present. When a people cannot trust their government's institutions, poverty and starvation persist. In America it is big news when leftists can find someone who claims they are hungry. At Christmas, the majority of the people in developed countries celebrate and therefore the market trading volume gets very low and the market tends to rise. Taking profits at the end of the year means there is very little use of the profits before they are taxed. Generally if the market is high it is better to take profits in January and use the profits for 14 months tax-free. Due to the run-up we saw from the March lows there is a higher probability that this year there will be a sell-off in January triggered by profit taking.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Today, Dec. 21:
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Dec. 22:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate profits
Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
Consumer Income
Consumer Sentiment
New Home Sales
Thursday, Dec. 24:
U.S. Market closes early
Unemployment Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, Dec. 25:
U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day
Market forces December 21
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 4.4% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded.
Asian markets were down over night; China up 0.3%, Hong Kong down -1.1%, India down -0.7%, and Japan up 0.4%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.8% to 1.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.4% today at 8:30 AM EST.
We are preparing for a market decline that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Friday, December 18, 2009
We are preparing for a market decline to a level seven months ago.
We are preparing for a market decline that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May, seven months ago.
Obama leftist radicals said, "No opportunity to damage free enterprise should be left unexploited."
There was no economic collapse until after a year of leftist campaign rhetoric saying that the economy was in shambles. That caused a collapse in confidence. No responsible people ever publicly claimed America was headed for a depression during the fifty years before Obama because every intelligent and responsible person knows that such stupid irresponsible remarks damage the confidence and trust needed for a free economic system to function.
America's economic system was built on honesty and earned the trust that true liberty thrives on. The Obama leftists deliberately shattered all of that to create the crises they needed to get a veto proof majority to eventually change the American Constitution and create another totalitarian socialist state where dishonest and unethical politicians band together with the necessary votes to expropriate wealth from the producers of national wealth who are the "true" minority in human society. Obama even had the "Soros" greed money flooding his campaign with cash. Boy, those greedy Wall Street folks sure wish they had not made that mistake now! Tyranny always comes clothed in promises of great things to come. But once they take power they try to silence dissidents who want to keep liberty alive. The dictators reward the thugs they attract to their government. That is what the stimulation package and the health care bill are all about. They are to redistribute wealth from hard working, liberty loving people to the thugs, the lazy, the illegal aliens who want amnesty, and all the other elements who could comprise a permanent voting block for the leftist radicals. Then with a super-majority they change the constitution to give themselves lifetime dictatorial power. If they survive long enough their psychotic children even succeed them like they have in North Korea.
ACORN and the Panthers still have faced no threat of court action for voter registration fraud and intimidation of election officials and voters at polling places, or for the terrorizing of AIG employees with bussed in leftist demonstrators earlier this year. The Obama administration is giving the 911 terrorists every opportunity to stack the jury and subvert American justice by trying war criminals in civilian court. The Obama leftist administration is doing everything possible to try to disgrace the previous administrations that fought for American liberty. The claim that Washington "had slaves", Jefferson had children with slaves, they were all militaristic killers, they slaughter indigenous peoples, they are Jew lovers, they created AIDS to kill Blacks and Homosexuals, they torture Moslems… etc, ets. All this socialist rhetoric is the tyrant's "Big Lie" wrapped in a small element of truth but mostly in self-loathing, envy, and hatred of enterprising people who love their work and American liberty.
World Outlook
The dollar suddenly looks good again as the socialist "PIIGS" promise more raises for government workers and drive their countries toward bankruptcy. This will damage the EU because the PIIGS think Germany and France can bail them out. But the socialist PIIGS are no different than states like California and New York that are being driven towards bankruptcy by unionized state employees. Only Ireland said they would cut the wages of their government workers to help balance their budget. If they follow through then the PIIGS will lose one of their eyes and everyone will then know those socialist EU states as just PIGS.
According to EPFR Global, emerging-market equity fund inflows slowed in the week to Dec. 16, with 2010 poised to be a more “testing year” amid waning stimulus measures worldwide.
CNN-Money this morning has the headline, "Global warming's biggest jerks." The article says they are all in Copenhagen this week.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Demand for the weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions continues to be very strong. Despite very large auction sizes, coverage for both auctions was over 3.60. Low bid for the 3-month bill was once again zero. The average rate was at the low rate of 0.4%. The dollar regained strength causing commodity prices to decline and stock averages to decline around the world.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. This increase followed a 0.6-percent decrease in September and a 0.3-percent advance in October. That is a rapid acceleration in wholesale inflation.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index plunged 21 points, from 23.6 to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments also fell close to zero.
Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, a sign of recovery taking root in some parts of the economy. The gain shows that businesses and consumers are spending more, clearing inventories and spurring factories to produce more goods.
The homebuilder's housing market index fell 1 point in December to 16, now 3 points below September which, though very weak, was the highest reading so far in the2009 housing recovery. The report says credit conditions remain very tight and that questions over job security are keeping potential buyers from taking advantage of government incentives. Today's results point to a decline in existing home sales which, had begun to recover. Existing home sales for November will be posted Tuesday next week.
Federal Reserve officials met and just declared financial markets healthy enough to remove most emergency aid without going as far on their support for the U.S. economy.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November or at a 4.8% annual rate up from the 1.8 percent rate over the previous 12 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It is the first time wholesale and now consumer prices show evidence together that inflation is beginning to kick in.
Construction of new homes rose to an annual rate of 574,000 during November-- a figure that is 8.9 percent higher than the October revised rate of 527,000. However, this rate still falls 12.4 percent below the rate reaching during November 2008. The Northeast saw the biggest increase in new construction, having experienced a 16.4 percent rise in the period examined. Meanwhile, housing starts rose 12.3 percent in the South, 3 percent in the Midwest and 1.9 percent in the West.
Yesterday:
The Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week to 480,000 initial job claims filed in the week ended Dec. 12, up 7,000 from the previous week's upward revised 473,000.
The New York-based Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators rose for an eighth consecutive month in November, a sign economic growth will extend into the first half of 2010. It rose 0.9 percent after climbing 0.3 percent in October.
The Philadelphia-area manufacturing index grew in December at the fastest pace since April 2005. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded for a fifth month as sales and employment grew. The general economic index rose to 20.4 this month, from 16.7 in November. Readings greater than zero indicate growth.
Today, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 18
Volume rose almost 60% yesterday precisely when we indicated a convergence of sell signals a week ago. The MACD and cash flow indices say sell and a spiral (parabolic SAR) signal is close in coming. This year through November, investors pulled an estimated $118 billion from hedge funds as investors have run to the false safety of bonds.
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 4.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market still looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -2%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India down -1%, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.2% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST after a high volume decline yesterday.
We are preparing for a market decline that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Obama leftist radicals said, "No opportunity to damage free enterprise should be left unexploited."
There was no economic collapse until after a year of leftist campaign rhetoric saying that the economy was in shambles. That caused a collapse in confidence. No responsible people ever publicly claimed America was headed for a depression during the fifty years before Obama because every intelligent and responsible person knows that such stupid irresponsible remarks damage the confidence and trust needed for a free economic system to function.
America's economic system was built on honesty and earned the trust that true liberty thrives on. The Obama leftists deliberately shattered all of that to create the crises they needed to get a veto proof majority to eventually change the American Constitution and create another totalitarian socialist state where dishonest and unethical politicians band together with the necessary votes to expropriate wealth from the producers of national wealth who are the "true" minority in human society. Obama even had the "Soros" greed money flooding his campaign with cash. Boy, those greedy Wall Street folks sure wish they had not made that mistake now! Tyranny always comes clothed in promises of great things to come. But once they take power they try to silence dissidents who want to keep liberty alive. The dictators reward the thugs they attract to their government. That is what the stimulation package and the health care bill are all about. They are to redistribute wealth from hard working, liberty loving people to the thugs, the lazy, the illegal aliens who want amnesty, and all the other elements who could comprise a permanent voting block for the leftist radicals. Then with a super-majority they change the constitution to give themselves lifetime dictatorial power. If they survive long enough their psychotic children even succeed them like they have in North Korea.
ACORN and the Panthers still have faced no threat of court action for voter registration fraud and intimidation of election officials and voters at polling places, or for the terrorizing of AIG employees with bussed in leftist demonstrators earlier this year. The Obama administration is giving the 911 terrorists every opportunity to stack the jury and subvert American justice by trying war criminals in civilian court. The Obama leftist administration is doing everything possible to try to disgrace the previous administrations that fought for American liberty. The claim that Washington "had slaves", Jefferson had children with slaves, they were all militaristic killers, they slaughter indigenous peoples, they are Jew lovers, they created AIDS to kill Blacks and Homosexuals, they torture Moslems… etc, ets. All this socialist rhetoric is the tyrant's "Big Lie" wrapped in a small element of truth but mostly in self-loathing, envy, and hatred of enterprising people who love their work and American liberty.
World Outlook
The dollar suddenly looks good again as the socialist "PIIGS" promise more raises for government workers and drive their countries toward bankruptcy. This will damage the EU because the PIIGS think Germany and France can bail them out. But the socialist PIIGS are no different than states like California and New York that are being driven towards bankruptcy by unionized state employees. Only Ireland said they would cut the wages of their government workers to help balance their budget. If they follow through then the PIIGS will lose one of their eyes and everyone will then know those socialist EU states as just PIGS.
According to EPFR Global, emerging-market equity fund inflows slowed in the week to Dec. 16, with 2010 poised to be a more “testing year” amid waning stimulus measures worldwide.
CNN-Money this morning has the headline, "Global warming's biggest jerks." The article says they are all in Copenhagen this week.
Market Outlook:
This Week
Demand for the weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions continues to be very strong. Despite very large auction sizes, coverage for both auctions was over 3.60. Low bid for the 3-month bill was once again zero. The average rate was at the low rate of 0.4%. The dollar regained strength causing commodity prices to decline and stock averages to decline around the world.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. This increase followed a 0.6-percent decrease in September and a 0.3-percent advance in October. That is a rapid acceleration in wholesale inflation.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index plunged 21 points, from 23.6 to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments also fell close to zero.
Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, a sign of recovery taking root in some parts of the economy. The gain shows that businesses and consumers are spending more, clearing inventories and spurring factories to produce more goods.
The homebuilder's housing market index fell 1 point in December to 16, now 3 points below September which, though very weak, was the highest reading so far in the2009 housing recovery. The report says credit conditions remain very tight and that questions over job security are keeping potential buyers from taking advantage of government incentives. Today's results point to a decline in existing home sales which, had begun to recover. Existing home sales for November will be posted Tuesday next week.
Federal Reserve officials met and just declared financial markets healthy enough to remove most emergency aid without going as far on their support for the U.S. economy.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November or at a 4.8% annual rate up from the 1.8 percent rate over the previous 12 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It is the first time wholesale and now consumer prices show evidence together that inflation is beginning to kick in.
Construction of new homes rose to an annual rate of 574,000 during November-- a figure that is 8.9 percent higher than the October revised rate of 527,000. However, this rate still falls 12.4 percent below the rate reaching during November 2008. The Northeast saw the biggest increase in new construction, having experienced a 16.4 percent rise in the period examined. Meanwhile, housing starts rose 12.3 percent in the South, 3 percent in the Midwest and 1.9 percent in the West.
Yesterday:
The Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week to 480,000 initial job claims filed in the week ended Dec. 12, up 7,000 from the previous week's upward revised 473,000.
The New York-based Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators rose for an eighth consecutive month in November, a sign economic growth will extend into the first half of 2010. It rose 0.9 percent after climbing 0.3 percent in October.
The Philadelphia-area manufacturing index grew in December at the fastest pace since April 2005. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded for a fifth month as sales and employment grew. The general economic index rose to 20.4 this month, from 16.7 in November. Readings greater than zero indicate growth.
Today, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 18
Volume rose almost 60% yesterday precisely when we indicated a convergence of sell signals a week ago. The MACD and cash flow indices say sell and a spiral (parabolic SAR) signal is close in coming. This year through November, investors pulled an estimated $118 billion from hedge funds as investors have run to the false safety of bonds.
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 4.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market still looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -2%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India down -1%, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.2% to 0.6% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST after a high volume decline yesterday.
We are preparing for a market decline that could take prices down to where they were at the end of May seven months ago.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Will profit taking factor into a decline in January?
World Outlook
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is trying to null an agreement to buy $7.5 billion of Citigroup Inc. stock at eight times today’s price, saying Citigroup misled it about the investment. Paying eight times today’s price after the market collapse certainly causes one to wonder about Abu Dhabi business sense.
Some of the central bank buyers of gold may be sending the strongest signal to sell it, if past performance is indicative of future results. The central banks tend to buy high and sell lower.
Market Outlook:
Most people and funds trade too frequently to care about long term gains vs. short term gains but with index investors they buy and hold unless they need to extract some of the gains to cover expenses. If they wait until January 4, 2010 to sell they can use or reinvest the gain tax-free until April 15, 2011 when taxes come due. Is that enough incentive for a January sell-off after 50% gains since March? While one may doubt that, studies do show that major higher market years tend to be followed by average lower market years and major down market years are followed by average up years. A DOW correction of 1000 points (25%) sometime in 2010 would be entirely typical of the market oscillations seen after rallies similar to 2009. The percentage swings in the S&P and NASDAQ are even greater. The fear of a market reaction could be an explanation of why so many people have moved into bond funds and short-term options hedging. Yet if inflation becomes a reality bonds will be the big losers. Inflation will however revive the real estate market.
This Week
Demand for the weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions continues to be strong. Despite very large auction sizes, coverage for both auctions was over 3.60. Low bid for the 3-month bill was once again zero. The average rate was at the low rate of 0.4%. The dollar regained strength causing commodity prices to decline and stock averages to decline around the world.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. This increase followed a 0.6-percent decrease in September and a 0.3-percent advance in October. That is a rapid acceleration in wholesale inflation.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index plunged 21 points, from 23.6 to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments also fell close to zero.
Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, a sign of recovery taking root in some parts of the economy. The gain shows that businesses and consumers are spending more, clearing inventories and spurring factories to produce more goods.
The homebuilder's housing market index fell 1 point in December to 16, now 3 points below September which, though very weak, was the highest reading so far in the2009 housing recovery. The report says credit conditions remain very tight and that questions over job security are keeping potential buyers from taking advantage of government incentives. Today's results point to a decline in existing home sales which, had begun to recover. Existing home sales for November will be posted Tuesday next week.
Wednesday, Dec. 16:
Consumer Price Index
New home starts
FOMC anncmnt
Thursday, Dec. 17:
Unemply Claims
Leading Econ Index
Phila Fed Index
Friday, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 16
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.8% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market still looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.9%, India up 0.2%, and Japan up 0.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.2% to 0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.4% today at 8:30 AM EST.
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is trying to null an agreement to buy $7.5 billion of Citigroup Inc. stock at eight times today’s price, saying Citigroup misled it about the investment. Paying eight times today’s price after the market collapse certainly causes one to wonder about Abu Dhabi business sense.
Some of the central bank buyers of gold may be sending the strongest signal to sell it, if past performance is indicative of future results. The central banks tend to buy high and sell lower.
Market Outlook:
Most people and funds trade too frequently to care about long term gains vs. short term gains but with index investors they buy and hold unless they need to extract some of the gains to cover expenses. If they wait until January 4, 2010 to sell they can use or reinvest the gain tax-free until April 15, 2011 when taxes come due. Is that enough incentive for a January sell-off after 50% gains since March? While one may doubt that, studies do show that major higher market years tend to be followed by average lower market years and major down market years are followed by average up years. A DOW correction of 1000 points (25%) sometime in 2010 would be entirely typical of the market oscillations seen after rallies similar to 2009. The percentage swings in the S&P and NASDAQ are even greater. The fear of a market reaction could be an explanation of why so many people have moved into bond funds and short-term options hedging. Yet if inflation becomes a reality bonds will be the big losers. Inflation will however revive the real estate market.
This Week
Demand for the weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions continues to be strong. Despite very large auction sizes, coverage for both auctions was over 3.60. Low bid for the 3-month bill was once again zero. The average rate was at the low rate of 0.4%. The dollar regained strength causing commodity prices to decline and stock averages to decline around the world.
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. This increase followed a 0.6-percent decrease in September and a 0.3-percent advance in October. That is a rapid acceleration in wholesale inflation.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index plunged 21 points, from 23.6 to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments also fell close to zero.
Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, a sign of recovery taking root in some parts of the economy. The gain shows that businesses and consumers are spending more, clearing inventories and spurring factories to produce more goods.
The homebuilder's housing market index fell 1 point in December to 16, now 3 points below September which, though very weak, was the highest reading so far in the2009 housing recovery. The report says credit conditions remain very tight and that questions over job security are keeping potential buyers from taking advantage of government incentives. Today's results point to a decline in existing home sales which, had begun to recover. Existing home sales for November will be posted Tuesday next week.
Wednesday, Dec. 16:
Consumer Price Index
New home starts
FOMC anncmnt
Thursday, Dec. 17:
Unemply Claims
Leading Econ Index
Phila Fed Index
Friday, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 16
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.8% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market still looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.9%, India up 0.2%, and Japan up 0.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.2% to 0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about 0.4% today at 8:30 AM EST.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Christmas Season is upon us. It is a season of hope and light.
World Outlook
According to a central bank survey of about 100 economists published yesterday, Brazil’s economy will contract 0.26 percent this year compared with a previous estimate for 0.21 percent growth. But then Brazil’s retail sales jumped in October twice as fast as forecast by economists as surging consumer demand drove the recovery of Latin America’s biggest economy. However B of A today said Brazil’s central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low through 2010 because concerns that inflation will accelerate are “exaggerated,” according to Bank of America Corp. Tenengauzer reportedly said,
“This desperation about inflation in Brazil is exaggerated.” “The central bank won’t need to raise rates until 2011. If they do, it’s going to be just a little.”
Brazils inflation is already 4.3% during the recession when deflation is usually a problem.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world remain near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s. Yesterday was the best market day in some time with money flowing back into stocks. The respiral indicator (modified parabolic SAR) turned positive again and the modified MACD indicator became somewhat less bearish. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index improved somewhat but still gives a sell signal and the volume adjusted NYSE index is still about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown (of the head and shoulders formation) occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It is now less likely that the market will correct before Christmas rather than in January as we have been expecting. The NYSE is now only 2.1% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder.
This Week
Demand for the weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions continues to be very strong. Despite very large auction sizes, coverage for both auctions was over 3.60. Low bid for the 3-month bill was once again zero. The average rate was at the low rate of 0.4%. The dollar regained strength causing commodity prices to decline and stock averages to decline around the world.
Tuesday, Dec. 15:
Prod. Price Index
NY State Mfg. Index
Industrial Production
Housing Market Index
Wednesday, Dec. 16:
Consumer Price Index
New home starts
FOMC anncmnt
Thursday, Dec. 17:
Unemply Claims
Leading Econ Index
Phila Fed Index
Friday, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 14
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.1% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market still looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -0.9%, Hong Kong down -1.2%, India down -1.3%, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.2% to -0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down by about -0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. It is more likely now that this first decline will not exceed 10% but the downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess national socialists are creating.
According to a central bank survey of about 100 economists published yesterday, Brazil’s economy will contract 0.26 percent this year compared with a previous estimate for 0.21 percent growth. But then Brazil’s retail sales jumped in October twice as fast as forecast by economists as surging consumer demand drove the recovery of Latin America’s biggest economy. However B of A today said Brazil’s central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low through 2010 because concerns that inflation will accelerate are “exaggerated,” according to Bank of America Corp. Tenengauzer reportedly said,
“This desperation about inflation in Brazil is exaggerated.” “The central bank won’t need to raise rates until 2011. If they do, it’s going to be just a little.”
Brazils inflation is already 4.3% during the recession when deflation is usually a problem.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world remain near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s. Yesterday was the best market day in some time with money flowing back into stocks. The respiral indicator (modified parabolic SAR) turned positive again and the modified MACD indicator became somewhat less bearish. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index improved somewhat but still gives a sell signal and the volume adjusted NYSE index is still about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown (of the head and shoulders formation) occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It is now less likely that the market will correct before Christmas rather than in January as we have been expecting. The NYSE is now only 2.1% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder.
This Week
Demand for the weekly 3- and 6-month bill auctions continues to be very strong. Despite very large auction sizes, coverage for both auctions was over 3.60. Low bid for the 3-month bill was once again zero. The average rate was at the low rate of 0.4%. The dollar regained strength causing commodity prices to decline and stock averages to decline around the world.
Tuesday, Dec. 15:
Prod. Price Index
NY State Mfg. Index
Industrial Production
Housing Market Index
Wednesday, Dec. 16:
Consumer Price Index
New home starts
FOMC anncmnt
Thursday, Dec. 17:
Unemply Claims
Leading Econ Index
Phila Fed Index
Friday, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 14
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.1% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market still looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -0.9%, Hong Kong down -1.2%, India down -1.3%, and Japan down -0.2%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.2% to -0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures down by about -0.3% today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. It is more likely now that this first decline will not exceed 10% but the downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess national socialists are creating.
Monday, December 14, 2009
How will corporations deal with the new Obama taxes needed to fund the new state and federal workers, union expansion and ACORN
How will corporations deal with the new Obama taxes needed to fund the new state and federal workers, union expansion and ACORN that were funded by the $800 billion stimulation package?
Dear Employees:
The board of directors of this organization and I our CEO have resigned ourselves to the fact that President Barrack Obama is our President and that our taxes and government fees are increasing to cover new state and federal government jobs, unions and other contributors to the presidents campaign, and political organizations like ACORN. To compensate for this government growth, our prices would have to increase by about 10%. But since we cannot increase our prices right now due to the dismal state of the economy, we will have to lay off sixty of our employees to cut costs. This is a great concern since we have been family here and it is difficult to choose who would have to go.
World Outlook
Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said industrial production fell by 0.6 percent in October from the previous month stoking fears that the recovery from recession in the eurozone will be slow. The decline was expected after figures last week showed German industrial output slid 1.8 percent during the month.
The data suggests that the eurozone economy will not expand as quickly in the fourth quarter as the third quarter's 0.4 percent gain, especially as separate Eurostat figures showed employment rose 0.5 percent in the third quarter, equal to the second quarter increase.
For the 27-country EU as a whole, which includes non-euro members such as Britain and Sweden, industrial production fell by 0.7 percent in October following a modest 0.1 percent increase in the previous month. Compared with October 2008, industrial output was 11.1 percent lower for the eurozone, slightly better than the 12.8 percent decline recorded in September. For the EU, the annual decline moderated to 10.2 percent from 12.2 percent.
According to a central bank survey of about 100 economists published today, Brazil’s economy will contract 0.26 percent this year compared with a previous estimate for 0.21 percent growth
Market Outlook:
U.S. stock-index futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised for a good start, after Abu Dhabi provided $10 billion to Dubai to help with debt repayments. Futures traders are reducing bets for gains in two-year Treasuries as Federal Reserve officials meet this week amid signs the tax and expanding government based economic recovery may be inflationary. The U.S. may have avoided the Japanese disease of prolonged stagnation only to end up with a dose of eurosclerosis: chronically high unemployment in a growing economy. In a survey, chief executive officers of more than a dozen U.S. companies said that President Barack Obama’s $1 trillion health-care overhaul won’t buy corporate America relief from medical costs that more than doubled in the last decade.
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Four more days like the last could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown (of the head and shoulders formation) occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. This year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.
The NYSE is now 3% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than two weeks remain in the Christmas season rally.
This Week
Monday, Dec. 14:
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Dec. 15:
Prod. Price Index
NY State Mfg. Index
Industrial Production
Housing Market Index
Wednesday, Dec. 16:
Consumer Price Index
New home starts
FOMC anncmnt
Thursday, Dec. 17:
Unemply Claims
Leading Econ Index
Phila Fed Index
Friday, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 14
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 1.7%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India down -0.3%, Japan down -0.1%, Seoul up 0.5% and Taiwan up 0.3%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from +0.5% to +0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about +0.5% today at 7:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. A deep market slide could begin as early as is four business days. This potential decline would indicate that the socialists in congress and the more radical Obama administration is setting us up for a worldwide depression in six to twelve months with high taxes kicking in during 2010.
Dear Employees:
The board of directors of this organization and I our CEO have resigned ourselves to the fact that President Barrack Obama is our President and that our taxes and government fees are increasing to cover new state and federal government jobs, unions and other contributors to the presidents campaign, and political organizations like ACORN. To compensate for this government growth, our prices would have to increase by about 10%. But since we cannot increase our prices right now due to the dismal state of the economy, we will have to lay off sixty of our employees to cut costs. This is a great concern since we have been family here and it is difficult to choose who would have to go.
World Outlook
Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said industrial production fell by 0.6 percent in October from the previous month stoking fears that the recovery from recession in the eurozone will be slow. The decline was expected after figures last week showed German industrial output slid 1.8 percent during the month.
The data suggests that the eurozone economy will not expand as quickly in the fourth quarter as the third quarter's 0.4 percent gain, especially as separate Eurostat figures showed employment rose 0.5 percent in the third quarter, equal to the second quarter increase.
For the 27-country EU as a whole, which includes non-euro members such as Britain and Sweden, industrial production fell by 0.7 percent in October following a modest 0.1 percent increase in the previous month. Compared with October 2008, industrial output was 11.1 percent lower for the eurozone, slightly better than the 12.8 percent decline recorded in September. For the EU, the annual decline moderated to 10.2 percent from 12.2 percent.
According to a central bank survey of about 100 economists published today, Brazil’s economy will contract 0.26 percent this year compared with a previous estimate for 0.21 percent growth
Market Outlook:
U.S. stock-index futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised for a good start, after Abu Dhabi provided $10 billion to Dubai to help with debt repayments. Futures traders are reducing bets for gains in two-year Treasuries as Federal Reserve officials meet this week amid signs the tax and expanding government based economic recovery may be inflationary. The U.S. may have avoided the Japanese disease of prolonged stagnation only to end up with a dose of eurosclerosis: chronically high unemployment in a growing economy. In a survey, chief executive officers of more than a dozen U.S. companies said that President Barack Obama’s $1 trillion health-care overhaul won’t buy corporate America relief from medical costs that more than doubled in the last decade.
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Four more days like the last could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown (of the head and shoulders formation) occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. This year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.
The NYSE is now 3% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than two weeks remain in the Christmas season rally.
This Week
Monday, Dec. 14:
Treasury bill auctions
Tuesday, Dec. 15:
Prod. Price Index
NY State Mfg. Index
Industrial Production
Housing Market Index
Wednesday, Dec. 16:
Consumer Price Index
New home starts
FOMC anncmnt
Thursday, Dec. 17:
Unemply Claims
Leading Econ Index
Phila Fed Index
Friday, Dec. 18:
Quadruple-witching expirations.
Market forces December 14
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 1.7%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India down -0.3%, Japan down -0.1%, Seoul up 0.5% and Taiwan up 0.3%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from +0.5% to +0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures up by about +0.5% today at 7:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. A deep market slide could begin as early as is four business days. This potential decline would indicate that the socialists in congress and the more radical Obama administration is setting us up for a worldwide depression in six to twelve months with high taxes kicking in during 2010.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Emerging Markets and Gold decline on Dubai cascading effect.
World Outlook
The dollar strengthens with increasing relative strength of the American economy to more socialist economies and Japan. Only Obama still has the power to spend America into another "Great Depression" as FDR's early socialism experiment did in the 1930's. Only WWII and the need for free enterprise to bail out the world got FDR to stop end socialism and that saved the world economy. But it took over ten years of depression to reverse the damaging effects of FDR's early socialism.
Brazil’s economy expanded less than expected in the third quarter the national statistics agency said today while Brazil's inflation quickened for third straight month in November. Brazil’s central bank signaled it would keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low in coming months as the government extends stimulus measures to bolster growth.
Mexico is said to be ready to default again.
The Argentine government issued a decree authorizing a partial default.
The world of socialism is bleak. The leftist Obama administration has turned out to be more dangerous to American liberty than anyone believed before his election. A 50% retracement now of this year's 60% stock market gain would not be unusual in this situation where Obama high point was nationalized and destruction of GM to save union votes and financial support. GM is now among the living dead; just another money pit until it gets liquidated. Instead of stimulating the economy with a tax break to Americans who have been successful in creating wealth, Obama has given $800 billion to his supporters who are expert only in creating envy and discontent and in dissipating other peoples money (OPM). He gave $300million in aid to buy one Congresswoman's vote just last week.
Socialism is legal government of, by, and for sycophants. Socialism does not have to be Stalinist or Nazi to be tyranny. Socialism is tyranny in any form even when it is just two people democratically voting to expropriate the fruit of a third person's labor. Now Obama wants to extend his same failed political give away program though 2010
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Five more days like the last could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It would be unusual, but this year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.
The NYSE is now 3.7% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
Business roundtable opposes health reform that has a public option, increases costs, or shifts costs to the private sector.
This week:
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims expected to decline as six hundred thousand workers are removed and join the ranks of those uncounted and thought to be permanently unemployed. There are now six Americans seeking work for every job available. But this is considered good news to socialists because unemployment claims should decline.
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment
Market forces December 10
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India up 0.4%, Japan down -1.4%, Seoul up 1.1% and Taiwan down -1.5%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to +0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures rising at the moment by about +0.2% today at 8 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.7% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. A deep market slide could begin as early as is five business days. This potential decline would indicate that the socialists in congress and the more radical Obama administration is setting us up for a worldwide depression in six to twelve months with high taxes kicking in during 2010.
The dollar strengthens with increasing relative strength of the American economy to more socialist economies and Japan. Only Obama still has the power to spend America into another "Great Depression" as FDR's early socialism experiment did in the 1930's. Only WWII and the need for free enterprise to bail out the world got FDR to stop end socialism and that saved the world economy. But it took over ten years of depression to reverse the damaging effects of FDR's early socialism.
Brazil’s economy expanded less than expected in the third quarter the national statistics agency said today while Brazil's inflation quickened for third straight month in November. Brazil’s central bank signaled it would keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low in coming months as the government extends stimulus measures to bolster growth.
Mexico is said to be ready to default again.
The Argentine government issued a decree authorizing a partial default.
The world of socialism is bleak. The leftist Obama administration has turned out to be more dangerous to American liberty than anyone believed before his election. A 50% retracement now of this year's 60% stock market gain would not be unusual in this situation where Obama high point was nationalized and destruction of GM to save union votes and financial support. GM is now among the living dead; just another money pit until it gets liquidated. Instead of stimulating the economy with a tax break to Americans who have been successful in creating wealth, Obama has given $800 billion to his supporters who are expert only in creating envy and discontent and in dissipating other peoples money (OPM). He gave $300million in aid to buy one Congresswoman's vote just last week.
Socialism is legal government of, by, and for sycophants. Socialism does not have to be Stalinist or Nazi to be tyranny. Socialism is tyranny in any form even when it is just two people democratically voting to expropriate the fruit of a third person's labor. Now Obama wants to extend his same failed political give away program though 2010
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Five more days like the last could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It would be unusual, but this year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.
The NYSE is now 3.7% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
Business roundtable opposes health reform that has a public option, increases costs, or shifts costs to the private sector.
This week:
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims expected to decline as six hundred thousand workers are removed and join the ranks of those uncounted and thought to be permanently unemployed. There are now six Americans seeking work for every job available. But this is considered good news to socialists because unemployment claims should decline.
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment
Market forces December 10
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.2%, India up 0.4%, Japan down -1.4%, Seoul up 1.1% and Taiwan down -1.5%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to +0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures rising at the moment by about +0.2% today at 8 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.7% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. A deep market slide could begin as early as is five business days. This potential decline would indicate that the socialists in congress and the more radical Obama administration is setting us up for a worldwide depression in six to twelve months with high taxes kicking in during 2010.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Obama leftists have at least 1000 ways to destroy American wealth.
A tax on securities transactions would collapse the stock market perhaps 50%.
Extreme heights of bubbles are possible from huge infusions of cash. But those infusions would be taxed every time cash traded hands. So if the market activity were high and the velocity of money were 30, the transaction tax would be applied 30 times for each cash infusion. So a small tax would substantially deplete cash flow. That would make equities investments less profitable by much more than just the tax. Smaller market differential transactions would have great losses and would cease to exist. Day trading would go back to what it was 40 years ago; virtually non-existent outside of professional market makers. Commission rates would rise to compensate for the business decline. The initial market decline would be substantial even before such a transaction tax took effect because smart investors would bail out quickly.
Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen has said he wants leaders to reach a “strong political agreement” by the end of the summit on Dec. 18, when U.S. President Barack Obama and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown come to Copenhagen. The Danish floated a paper that requires all nations to cut CO2 emissions, not just industrial nations. But many countries only support Kyoto because it would guarantee them financial aid so they could treat the "criminally" polluting USA with contempt and still get foreign aid from the USA in the form of the legally binding fines placed on the USA.
Comrade Martin Kaiser, Greenpeace International climate political adviser, said in an e-mail,
“Rasmussen needs to get serious and focus on solving the roadblocks that have been caused by the industrialized countries refusing to agree on deep cuts in emissions, long-term finance for the developing world and a legally binding outcome in Copenhagen,” Kaiser said.
Greenpeace wants to criminalize CO2 and then fine the "criminally" polluting USA and get that done while the USA has an inept leftist government that would like to go along with the UN sponsored worldwide socialist wealth distribution system. That is why the protection right now of America's liberties is so important. Poor socialists only know how to dissipate wealth from their wealthy relatives or countrymen. Poor socialists despise wealth producers because they tend not to want to support leftist sycophants of socialism. So the single most important objective of Greenpeace is to criminalize American wealt production so that American lawyers and World lawyers can descend like vultures on Uncle Sam and pick at his bones.
World Outlook
Brazil's Inflation Quickened for Third Straight Month in November to 0.41%.
Emerging-market spreads over U.S. Treasuries narrowed on speculation any default of state-owned companies in Dubai won’t affect the ability of Asian governments to meet their debt obligations.
The world of socialism is bleak. The leftist Obama administration has turned out to be more dangerous to American liberty than anyone believed before his election. A 50% retracement of this year's 60% stock market gain would not be unusual in this situation where Obama high point was nationalized and destruction of GM to save union votes and financial support. GM is now among the living dead; just another money pit until it gets liquidated. Instead of stimulating the economy with a tax break to Americans who have been successful in creating wealth Obama has given $800 billion for his supporters who are expert only in creating envy and discontent and in dissipating other peoples money (OPM). Socialism is legal government of, by, and for sycophants. Socialism does not have to be Stalinist or Nazi to be tyranny. Socialism is tyranny in any form even when it is just two people democratically voting to expropriate the fruit of a third person's labor.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest one year stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Six more days like the last six could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It would be unusual, but this year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.
The NYSE is now 3.9% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
Business roundtable opposes health reform that has a public option, increases costs, or shifts costs to the private sector.
This week:
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment
Market forces December 9
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -1.7%, Hong Kong down -1.4%, India down -0.6%, Japan down -1.3%, Seoul up 0.4% and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.7% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are falling again at the moment but still about +0.2% today at 9 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.9% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. The market slide could begin as early as is six business days.
Extreme heights of bubbles are possible from huge infusions of cash. But those infusions would be taxed every time cash traded hands. So if the market activity were high and the velocity of money were 30, the transaction tax would be applied 30 times for each cash infusion. So a small tax would substantially deplete cash flow. That would make equities investments less profitable by much more than just the tax. Smaller market differential transactions would have great losses and would cease to exist. Day trading would go back to what it was 40 years ago; virtually non-existent outside of professional market makers. Commission rates would rise to compensate for the business decline. The initial market decline would be substantial even before such a transaction tax took effect because smart investors would bail out quickly.
Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen has said he wants leaders to reach a “strong political agreement” by the end of the summit on Dec. 18, when U.S. President Barack Obama and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown come to Copenhagen. The Danish floated a paper that requires all nations to cut CO2 emissions, not just industrial nations. But many countries only support Kyoto because it would guarantee them financial aid so they could treat the "criminally" polluting USA with contempt and still get foreign aid from the USA in the form of the legally binding fines placed on the USA.
Comrade Martin Kaiser, Greenpeace International climate political adviser, said in an e-mail,
“Rasmussen needs to get serious and focus on solving the roadblocks that have been caused by the industrialized countries refusing to agree on deep cuts in emissions, long-term finance for the developing world and a legally binding outcome in Copenhagen,” Kaiser said.
Greenpeace wants to criminalize CO2 and then fine the "criminally" polluting USA and get that done while the USA has an inept leftist government that would like to go along with the UN sponsored worldwide socialist wealth distribution system. That is why the protection right now of America's liberties is so important. Poor socialists only know how to dissipate wealth from their wealthy relatives or countrymen. Poor socialists despise wealth producers because they tend not to want to support leftist sycophants of socialism. So the single most important objective of Greenpeace is to criminalize American wealt production so that American lawyers and World lawyers can descend like vultures on Uncle Sam and pick at his bones.
World Outlook
Brazil's Inflation Quickened for Third Straight Month in November to 0.41%.
Emerging-market spreads over U.S. Treasuries narrowed on speculation any default of state-owned companies in Dubai won’t affect the ability of Asian governments to meet their debt obligations.
The world of socialism is bleak. The leftist Obama administration has turned out to be more dangerous to American liberty than anyone believed before his election. A 50% retracement of this year's 60% stock market gain would not be unusual in this situation where Obama high point was nationalized and destruction of GM to save union votes and financial support. GM is now among the living dead; just another money pit until it gets liquidated. Instead of stimulating the economy with a tax break to Americans who have been successful in creating wealth Obama has given $800 billion for his supporters who are expert only in creating envy and discontent and in dissipating other peoples money (OPM). Socialism is legal government of, by, and for sycophants. Socialism does not have to be Stalinist or Nazi to be tyranny. Socialism is tyranny in any form even when it is just two people democratically voting to expropriate the fruit of a third person's labor.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest one year stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Six more days like the last six could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It would be unusual, but this year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.
The NYSE is now 3.9% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
Business roundtable opposes health reform that has a public option, increases costs, or shifts costs to the private sector.
This week:
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment
Market forces December 9
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -1.7%, Hong Kong down -1.4%, India down -0.6%, Japan down -1.3%, Seoul up 0.4% and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.7% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are falling again at the moment but still about +0.2% today at 9 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.9% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. The market slide could begin as early as is six business days.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Banks borrowing from taxpayers at 0% interest to buy USA taxpayer bonds that pay more than 4% increases the deficit.
The projected TARP costs were reduced by $200 billion as banks borrow from taxpayers at 0% interest to buy USA taxpayer bonds that pay more than 4%. Comrad Obama says that it reduces the deficit but obviously it does not. It only shifts the deficit from TARP to the Treasury. But the Obama administration apparently either hasn't got a clue or thinks Americans are not smart enough to understand what is going on.
Zales was zapped but FedEx and Tiffany have just report better outlooks.
World Outlook
Banks face fresh Dubai debt fears and that is putting pressure on Emerging Countries such as China and India which could be the next bubbles to burst just as Japan did in 1990. Britain has greater percentage exposure to Dubai and could fall out of the world's top 10 economies. Moody's said the U.S. and U.K. socialists must prove they can reduce their ballooning deficits to avoid threats their triple-A credit ratings.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s.
The NYSE is now 2.4% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to slackers, featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
This week:
Tuesday, Dec. 8:
Business roundtable issues
Chain Store Sales
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment
Market forces December 8
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.4% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -1%, Hong Kong down -1.2%, India up 1.4%, Japan down -0.3%, Seoul down -0.3% and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.6% to -1.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are falling fast at the moment and are down about -0.6% today at 7:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.4% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride.
Zales was zapped but FedEx and Tiffany have just report better outlooks.
World Outlook
Banks face fresh Dubai debt fears and that is putting pressure on Emerging Countries such as China and India which could be the next bubbles to burst just as Japan did in 1990. Britain has greater percentage exposure to Dubai and could fall out of the world's top 10 economies. Moody's said the U.S. and U.K. socialists must prove they can reduce their ballooning deficits to avoid threats their triple-A credit ratings.
Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest stock market bubble since the 1930s.
The NYSE is now 2.4% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to slackers, featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
This week:
Tuesday, Dec. 8:
Business roundtable issues
Chain Store Sales
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment
Market forces December 8
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.4% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were down over night; China down -1%, Hong Kong down -1.2%, India up 1.4%, Japan down -0.3%, Seoul down -0.3% and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.6% to -1.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are falling fast at the moment and are down about -0.6% today at 7:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.4% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Market topping gets analysts looking for a reason that they can shoot down later
Rather than accept that the reality that the FED caused another bubble of irrationality which inflated the US market up about 60% from their lows for the year, the analysts are looking for something to blame for the market top that will be easy to shoot down in a few months when the bubble resumes. The democrat-socialists in power are already planning another stimulus package to expand their voter base and corruption with another welfare package for the socialists. The last stimulus did nothing to create jobs, and it is the FED's zero interest rates that are causing the equities bubble and a bonus welfare package for the rich. The only ones left out in the cold as usual are the middle class workers that are still struggling to pay off the last bubble.
World Outlook
Barrons had a good article this last weekend that pointed out that FDR, Ike, and Reagan each had more than 50% of their appointees with private sector experience. The socialist Obama administration has a national record low of only 8% who actually have worked in the American free market system. The rest are for the most part hacks who work for politicians and political organizations that lobby for welfare causes. And most of the 8% who actualy have real work experience are holdovers from the Bush administration. Obama does not even know many Americans who have had to work for a living and are not live on political handouts.
JFK and Reagan cut taxes to ward off recessions because they knew that it was not smart government policy to take money from smart taxpayers to give it to ignorant and stupid people who could care less about America. Charity is one thing but the current administration's socialistic stupidity is quite a different thing. Obama thinks American security is for the most part a waste of money. Obama would like to abandon the current military and just have a small Revolutionary Guard to protect himself. He at one time mentioned forming such a guard from a government work program simolar to the Peace Corp.
Market Outlook:
U.S. stock futures dropped as falling commodity prices caused concern that the nine-month rally in equities has outpaced prospects for economic growth. Crude prices dropped to $75 a barrel, reacting to the dollar hitting a five-week high. Forecasts for fast U.S. earnings growth are failing to convince options traders that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will further expand its biggest bubble since the 1930s.
The NYSE is now 2% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
This week:
Monday, Dec. 7:
Bernanke speech
NY Dudley speech
Obama joins the climate fraud socialists in Copenhagen
Tuesday, Dec. 8:
Business roundtable issues
Chain Store Sales
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemploy Claims
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consum sentiment
Market forces December 7
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India down -0.7%, Japan up 1.5%, Seoul up 0.5% and Taiwan up 1.6%.
European markets are ambiguous with the average in a range from -0.5% to +0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2% above Friday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride.
World Outlook
Barrons had a good article this last weekend that pointed out that FDR, Ike, and Reagan each had more than 50% of their appointees with private sector experience. The socialist Obama administration has a national record low of only 8% who actually have worked in the American free market system. The rest are for the most part hacks who work for politicians and political organizations that lobby for welfare causes. And most of the 8% who actualy have real work experience are holdovers from the Bush administration. Obama does not even know many Americans who have had to work for a living and are not live on political handouts.
JFK and Reagan cut taxes to ward off recessions because they knew that it was not smart government policy to take money from smart taxpayers to give it to ignorant and stupid people who could care less about America. Charity is one thing but the current administration's socialistic stupidity is quite a different thing. Obama thinks American security is for the most part a waste of money. Obama would like to abandon the current military and just have a small Revolutionary Guard to protect himself. He at one time mentioned forming such a guard from a government work program simolar to the Peace Corp.
Market Outlook:
U.S. stock futures dropped as falling commodity prices caused concern that the nine-month rally in equities has outpaced prospects for economic growth. Crude prices dropped to $75 a barrel, reacting to the dollar hitting a five-week high. Forecasts for fast U.S. earnings growth are failing to convince options traders that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will further expand its biggest bubble since the 1930s.
The NYSE is now 2% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
This week:
Monday, Dec. 7:
Bernanke speech
NY Dudley speech
Obama joins the climate fraud socialists in Copenhagen
Tuesday, Dec. 8:
Business roundtable issues
Chain Store Sales
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemploy Claims
US Trade Deficit
Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consum sentiment
Market forces December 7
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India down -0.7%, Japan up 1.5%, Seoul up 0.5% and Taiwan up 1.6%.
European markets are ambiguous with the average in a range from -0.5% to +0.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.3% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2% above Friday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Socialist human caused global warming scam continues to unravel.
One British university global warming huckster steps down and another huckster professor at Penn is under investigation for seeming to advocate false data. The global warming fraud that socialists created to push global wealth redistribution via "cap and trade" CO2 emission permits is beginning to finally unravel.
World Outlook
GM and communist China are planning a joint venture to sell cars in India.
Obama lacks the credibility of FDR who was well educated. Obama has zero education in finance. That was obvious when he showed he did not know that Wall Street is the market where capital is raised to expand industry and create jobs. Obama still thinks government creates jobs but government only spends other people's money and therefore can only redirect where the American invests. If the money is not spent more intelligently than the average American spends it then it is wasted.
John F Kennedy spent $3Trillion on the NASA project to put Americans on the moon. Many in Obama's administration apparently thought that the NASA funding was a waste and should have been spent on socialist education, and wealth redistribution. But NASA funding lead to new technologies that created the new markets for computers and electronics. John F Kennedy had enough intelligence to know that government wealth redistribution hurts job creation. Instead John F Kennedy knew a tax cut for conscientious hard working Americans would stimulated job creation. So that is how he got America out of his recession in 1962 just like Reagan got America out of the recession in 1982.
Both these presidents knew that it was not smart government policy to take money from smart taxpayers to give it to people who could care less about America.
Market Outlook:
The NYSE is now 2.5% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market. The $800Billion stimulation package has been spent but does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, did not know that one only buys votes that way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
This week:
The U.S. economy ended November on a 15 month high as the Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly rose to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced Monday. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. High-end housing prices and sales have now bottomed but low-end housing is still fraught with foreclosures.
Dec. 1:
The US manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth month running in November but at a slower pace than expected, a private survey showed Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.6 percent from 55.7 percent in October contradicting the more positive results yesterday in Obama's home city of Chicago which Obama showers with American taxpayer money.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September that is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
US construction spending surprisingly remained unchanged in October after September's drastically revised decline of 1.6%, the largest decline since January.
The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in November, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that 50,349 jobs were cut in November, 9.6% less than in October. It was the lowest total since December 2007, when 44,416 layoffs were announced.
Economic conditions are progressing 'modestly' amid signs of improvement in the troubled labor market, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey on Wednesday.
Unemployment Claims were down again for the third time in a row.
Productivity in the second quarter was revised down with the Labor Department's second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised down to an annualized 8.1 percent increase from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent surge.
ISM non-Manufacture Index yesterday
Business Activity Index at 49.6% down 5.6%
New Orders Index at 55.1% down 0.5%
Employment Index at 41.6% up 0.5%
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
"Capital markets remain very tight; lenders are not releasing funds for development projects, limiting expansion." (Accommodation & Food Services)
"Fourth quarter still looking grim, but potential upturn for Q1 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
"No one trusts that the recovery is real. Seems everything and everyone is in a holding pattern." (Public Administration)
"Business is still flat." (Wholesale Trade)
"U.S. business remains better than 2007 levels, although it's been through personnel and cost reductions that we are now profitable. Business continues to be about 8 percent below 2008 levels." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
Potential market movers. Today Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Market forces December 4
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 1.4% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 1.6%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -0.5%, Japan up 0.5%, Seoul up 0.6% and Taiwan down -0.4%.
European markets are lower with the average in a range from -0.5% to -0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up about 0.2% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.5% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride.
World Outlook
GM and communist China are planning a joint venture to sell cars in India.
Obama lacks the credibility of FDR who was well educated. Obama has zero education in finance. That was obvious when he showed he did not know that Wall Street is the market where capital is raised to expand industry and create jobs. Obama still thinks government creates jobs but government only spends other people's money and therefore can only redirect where the American invests. If the money is not spent more intelligently than the average American spends it then it is wasted.
John F Kennedy spent $3Trillion on the NASA project to put Americans on the moon. Many in Obama's administration apparently thought that the NASA funding was a waste and should have been spent on socialist education, and wealth redistribution. But NASA funding lead to new technologies that created the new markets for computers and electronics. John F Kennedy had enough intelligence to know that government wealth redistribution hurts job creation. Instead John F Kennedy knew a tax cut for conscientious hard working Americans would stimulated job creation. So that is how he got America out of his recession in 1962 just like Reagan got America out of the recession in 1982.
Both these presidents knew that it was not smart government policy to take money from smart taxpayers to give it to people who could care less about America.
Market Outlook:
The NYSE is now 2.5% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market. The $800Billion stimulation package has been spent but does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, did not know that one only buys votes that way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.
This week:
The U.S. economy ended November on a 15 month high as the Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly rose to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced Monday. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. High-end housing prices and sales have now bottomed but low-end housing is still fraught with foreclosures.
Dec. 1:
The US manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth month running in November but at a slower pace than expected, a private survey showed Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.6 percent from 55.7 percent in October contradicting the more positive results yesterday in Obama's home city of Chicago which Obama showers with American taxpayer money.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September that is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
US construction spending surprisingly remained unchanged in October after September's drastically revised decline of 1.6%, the largest decline since January.
The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in November, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that 50,349 jobs were cut in November, 9.6% less than in October. It was the lowest total since December 2007, when 44,416 layoffs were announced.
Economic conditions are progressing 'modestly' amid signs of improvement in the troubled labor market, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey on Wednesday.
Unemployment Claims were down again for the third time in a row.
Productivity in the second quarter was revised down with the Labor Department's second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised down to an annualized 8.1 percent increase from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent surge.
ISM non-Manufacture Index yesterday
Business Activity Index at 49.6% down 5.6%
New Orders Index at 55.1% down 0.5%
Employment Index at 41.6% up 0.5%
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
"Capital markets remain very tight; lenders are not releasing funds for development projects, limiting expansion." (Accommodation & Food Services)
"Fourth quarter still looking grim, but potential upturn for Q1 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
"No one trusts that the recovery is real. Seems everything and everyone is in a holding pattern." (Public Administration)
"Business is still flat." (Wholesale Trade)
"U.S. business remains better than 2007 levels, although it's been through personnel and cost reductions that we are now profitable. Business continues to be about 8 percent below 2008 levels." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
Potential market movers. Today Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Market forces December 4
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 1.4% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were mixed over night; China up 1.6%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -0.5%, Japan up 0.5%, Seoul up 0.6% and Taiwan down -0.4%.
European markets are lower with the average in a range from -0.5% to -0.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up about 0.2% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.5% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Proof that Obama had vengefully decapitated Bank of America
World Outlook
Ken Lewis told the truth about being forced to have BOA take TARP funds and was then forced out of his position as CEO of Bank of America for telling the world that truth. He had foolishly signed the one-sided socialist agreement giving the government the right to ultimately take over the Bank he was most instrumental in building into America's greatest bank. When he tried to pay back the government the government officials lied and publicly implied BOA was financially unsound. Democrat-socialist state treasurers using state funds and unions across America using union funds acted in socialist dictatorial lock step trying to oust him at the BOA annual meeting this year. That being unsuccessful, Obama had CEO Lewis' salary slashed to nada and threatened a harassing expensive investigation of BOA if he did not resign. Ken Lewis resigned and now BOA can pay back TARP and get out from under Obama's dictatorial socialist thumb. That is a blow to the effort of Obama socialists to nationalize the banks as well as General Motors. Of course GM has already lost more than $50Billion in less than a year to bail out the union supporters of Obama socialism and most good Americans will no longer buy a car that symbolizes socialist and union oppression of American liberties and right to work. The socialists don't believe in the right of free people to work only in the right of unionized people to work on government projects.
So Obama said nyett and drove out Ken Lewis for not even supporting temporary nationalization. Ultimately Obama may have succeeded in destroying the bank, and BOA may have to leave N. Carolina and move to NYC or Chicago if the socialists have their way. If it does move we will know Obama has infiltrated his socialist supporters into control of BOA.
Market Outlook:
The NYSE is still 1.4% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. The markets that represent a flight to safety are the last to indicate a market top but first to indicate a bottom. This time we are looking for the top not the bottom so we cannot use the Dow or S&P. Why, because the healthiest economies hit their highs already and are moving laterally.
This week:
The U.S. economy ended November on a 15 month high as the Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly rose to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced Monday. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. High-end housing prices and sales have now bottomed but low-end housing is still fraught with foreclosures.
Dec. 1:
The US manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth month running in November but at a slower pace than expected, a private survey showed Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.6 percent from 55.7 percent in October contradicting the more positive results yesterday in Obama's home city of Chicago which Obama showers with American taxpayer money.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September that is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
US construction spending surprisingly remained unchanged in October after September's drastically revised decline of 1.6%, the largest decline since January.
The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in November, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that 50,349 jobs were cut in November, 9.6% less than in October. It was the lowest total since December 2007, when 44,416 layoffs were announced.
Economic conditions are progressing 'modestly' amid signs of improvement in the troubled labor market, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey on Wednesday.
Potential market movers.
Today Thursday, Dec. 3:
Unemployment Claims
Productivity
ISM non-Manufacture Index
Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Market forces December 3
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 1.4% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets rose over night; China down -0.2%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.1%, Japan up 3.8%, Seoul up 1.5% and Taiwan up 0.1%.
European markets are mixed with the average in a range from -0.1% to +0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up about 0.3% today at 7:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.4% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW set a new high but the DOW is where stock money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. The NYSE also set a new high but on low market volume. But when market volume is considered the NYSE is still below its high for this year.
Ken Lewis told the truth about being forced to have BOA take TARP funds and was then forced out of his position as CEO of Bank of America for telling the world that truth. He had foolishly signed the one-sided socialist agreement giving the government the right to ultimately take over the Bank he was most instrumental in building into America's greatest bank. When he tried to pay back the government the government officials lied and publicly implied BOA was financially unsound. Democrat-socialist state treasurers using state funds and unions across America using union funds acted in socialist dictatorial lock step trying to oust him at the BOA annual meeting this year. That being unsuccessful, Obama had CEO Lewis' salary slashed to nada and threatened a harassing expensive investigation of BOA if he did not resign. Ken Lewis resigned and now BOA can pay back TARP and get out from under Obama's dictatorial socialist thumb. That is a blow to the effort of Obama socialists to nationalize the banks as well as General Motors. Of course GM has already lost more than $50Billion in less than a year to bail out the union supporters of Obama socialism and most good Americans will no longer buy a car that symbolizes socialist and union oppression of American liberties and right to work. The socialists don't believe in the right of free people to work only in the right of unionized people to work on government projects.
So Obama said nyett and drove out Ken Lewis for not even supporting temporary nationalization. Ultimately Obama may have succeeded in destroying the bank, and BOA may have to leave N. Carolina and move to NYC or Chicago if the socialists have their way. If it does move we will know Obama has infiltrated his socialist supporters into control of BOA.
Market Outlook:
The NYSE is still 1.4% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. The markets that represent a flight to safety are the last to indicate a market top but first to indicate a bottom. This time we are looking for the top not the bottom so we cannot use the Dow or S&P. Why, because the healthiest economies hit their highs already and are moving laterally.
This week:
The U.S. economy ended November on a 15 month high as the Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly rose to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced Monday. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. High-end housing prices and sales have now bottomed but low-end housing is still fraught with foreclosures.
Dec. 1:
The US manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth month running in November but at a slower pace than expected, a private survey showed Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.6 percent from 55.7 percent in October contradicting the more positive results yesterday in Obama's home city of Chicago which Obama showers with American taxpayer money.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September that is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
US construction spending surprisingly remained unchanged in October after September's drastically revised decline of 1.6%, the largest decline since January.
The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in November, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that 50,349 jobs were cut in November, 9.6% less than in October. It was the lowest total since December 2007, when 44,416 layoffs were announced.
Economic conditions are progressing 'modestly' amid signs of improvement in the troubled labor market, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey on Wednesday.
Potential market movers.
Today Thursday, Dec. 3:
Unemployment Claims
Productivity
ISM non-Manufacture Index
Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Market forces December 3
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 1.4% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets rose over night; China down -0.2%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India up 0.1%, Japan up 3.8%, Seoul up 1.5% and Taiwan up 0.1%.
European markets are mixed with the average in a range from -0.1% to +0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up about 0.3% today at 7:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.4% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW set a new high but the DOW is where stock money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. The NYSE also set a new high but on low market volume. But when market volume is considered the NYSE is still below its high for this year.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Obama is a failure again after throwing $50Billion down the socialized GM auto union hole. The Left's attention span is less than ten minutes.
World Outlook
Obama's first choice for General Motors CEO, Fritz Henderson, was thrown out after just 8 months by the socialist left's carefully selected Obama board. This is symptomatic of the incompetent lunatic leftists who can't hold a thought for more than ten minutes. Most Americans are boycotting Obama's socialized industries because it is pure government corruption to take money from productive taxpayers to fund corrupt unions that then in turn fund and actively campaign for incompetent socialist candidates so that the leftists can steal more from productive Americans and redistribute the wealth to indigent, lazy people who only vote for more corrupt, and incompetent socialists. That is how socialists steal liberty by creating a political majority of corrupt, incompetent, and lazy people. When socialist East Germany fell the world discovered that even in a formerly highly industrious free society the work ethic degenerated under socialism and the people would "pretend to work while the government pretended to pay them". Under socialism there is plenty of worthless money for party members but shortages of food and other things to buy. Productive people are heavily taxed, regarded with suspicion, and discriminated against just as Obama already is demonstrating.
Obama who has even less knowledge of military affairs than he does of banking and Wall Street... made it clear last night that he plans to lose the battle in Afghanistan by ignoring the advice of his generals. Thankfully, national socialist Adolf Hitler, a former corporal in his army ignored the advice of experienced German generals and fortunately overextended German forces and then blamed the generals for failure and abandoned the soldiers on the fields during WWII. Unfortunately our new socialists act the same way.
Market Outlook:
The market is topping again but the NYSE (adjusted for volume levels) is still 1.54% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. The markets that represent a flight to safety are the last to indicate a market top but first to indicate a bottom. This time we are looking for the top not the bottom. Why, because the healthiest economies hit their highs already and are moving laterally.
This week:
The U.S. economy ended November on a 15 month high as the Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly rose to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced Monday. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. High-end housing prices and sales have now bottomed but low-end housing is still fraught with foreclosures.
Dec. 1:
The US manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth month running in November but at a slower pace than expected, a private survey showed Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.6 percent from 55.7 percent in October contradicting the more positive results yesterday in Obama's home city of Chicago which Obama showers with American taxpayer money.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September that is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
US construction spending surprisingly remained unchanged in October after September's drastically revised decline of 1.6%, the largest decline since January.
Potential market movers.
Wednesday, Dec. 2:
Challenger Layoff Report
ADP Jobs Report
Fed's Beige Book minutes of the last meeting
Thursday, Dec. 3:
Unemployment Claims
Productivity
ISM non-Manufacture Index
Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Market forces December 1
We estimate the NYSE must now rise 1.5% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets rose over night; China up 1.1%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India down 0.2%, Japan up 0.4%, Seoul up 1.4% and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are mixed with the average in a range from -0.2% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.54% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW set a new high but the DOW is where stock money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. The NYSE also set a new high but on low market volume. When market volume is considered the NYSE is still below its high for this year.
Obama's first choice for General Motors CEO, Fritz Henderson, was thrown out after just 8 months by the socialist left's carefully selected Obama board. This is symptomatic of the incompetent lunatic leftists who can't hold a thought for more than ten minutes. Most Americans are boycotting Obama's socialized industries because it is pure government corruption to take money from productive taxpayers to fund corrupt unions that then in turn fund and actively campaign for incompetent socialist candidates so that the leftists can steal more from productive Americans and redistribute the wealth to indigent, lazy people who only vote for more corrupt, and incompetent socialists. That is how socialists steal liberty by creating a political majority of corrupt, incompetent, and lazy people. When socialist East Germany fell the world discovered that even in a formerly highly industrious free society the work ethic degenerated under socialism and the people would "pretend to work while the government pretended to pay them". Under socialism there is plenty of worthless money for party members but shortages of food and other things to buy. Productive people are heavily taxed, regarded with suspicion, and discriminated against just as Obama already is demonstrating.
Obama who has even less knowledge of military affairs than he does of banking and Wall Street... made it clear last night that he plans to lose the battle in Afghanistan by ignoring the advice of his generals. Thankfully, national socialist Adolf Hitler, a former corporal in his army ignored the advice of experienced German generals and fortunately overextended German forces and then blamed the generals for failure and abandoned the soldiers on the fields during WWII. Unfortunately our new socialists act the same way.
Market Outlook:
The market is topping again but the NYSE (adjusted for volume levels) is still 1.54% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. The markets that represent a flight to safety are the last to indicate a market top but first to indicate a bottom. This time we are looking for the top not the bottom. Why, because the healthiest economies hit their highs already and are moving laterally.
This week:
The U.S. economy ended November on a 15 month high as the Chicago purchasing managers index unexpectedly rose to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced Monday. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. High-end housing prices and sales have now bottomed but low-end housing is still fraught with foreclosures.
Dec. 1:
The US manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth month running in November but at a slower pace than expected, a private survey showed Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.6 percent from 55.7 percent in October contradicting the more positive results yesterday in Obama's home city of Chicago which Obama showers with American taxpayer money.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September that is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
US construction spending surprisingly remained unchanged in October after September's drastically revised decline of 1.6%, the largest decline since January.
Potential market movers.
Wednesday, Dec. 2:
Challenger Layoff Report
ADP Jobs Report
Fed's Beige Book minutes of the last meeting
Thursday, Dec. 3:
Unemployment Claims
Productivity
ISM non-Manufacture Index
Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Market forces December 1
We estimate the NYSE must now rise 1.5% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets rose over night; China up 1.1%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India down 0.2%, Japan up 0.4%, Seoul up 1.4% and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are mixed with the average in a range from -0.2% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.54% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW set a new high but the DOW is where stock money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. The NYSE also set a new high but on low market volume. When market volume is considered the NYSE is still below its high for this year.
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