Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Obama leftists have at least 1000 ways to destroy American wealth.

A tax on securities transactions would collapse the stock market perhaps 50%.
Extreme heights of bubbles are possible from huge infusions of cash. But those infusions would be taxed every time cash traded hands. So if the market activity were high and the velocity of money were 30, the transaction tax would be applied 30 times for each cash infusion. So a small tax would substantially deplete cash flow. That would make equities investments less profitable by much more than just the tax. Smaller market differential transactions would have great losses and would cease to exist. Day trading would go back to what it was 40 years ago; virtually non-existent outside of professional market makers. Commission rates would rise to compensate for the business decline. The initial market decline would be substantial even before such a transaction tax took effect because smart investors would bail out quickly.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen has said he wants leaders to reach a “strong political agreement” by the end of the summit on Dec. 18, when U.S. President Barack Obama and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown come to Copenhagen. The Danish floated a paper that requires all nations to cut CO2 emissions, not just industrial nations. But many countries only support Kyoto because it would guarantee them financial aid so they could treat the "criminally" polluting USA with contempt and still get foreign aid from the USA in the form of the legally binding fines placed on the USA.

Comrade Martin Kaiser, Greenpeace International climate political adviser, said in an e-mail,
“Rasmussen needs to get serious and focus on solving the roadblocks that have been caused by the industrialized countries refusing to agree on deep cuts in emissions, long-term finance for the developing world and a legally binding outcome in Copenhagen,” Kaiser said.

Greenpeace wants to criminalize CO2 and then fine the "criminally" polluting USA and get that done while the USA has an inept leftist government that would like to go along with the UN sponsored worldwide socialist wealth distribution system. That is why the protection right now of America's liberties is so important. Poor socialists only know how to dissipate wealth from their wealthy relatives or countrymen. Poor socialists despise wealth producers because they tend not to want to support leftist sycophants of socialism. So the single most important objective of Greenpeace is to criminalize American wealt production so that American lawyers and World lawyers can descend like vultures on Uncle Sam and pick at his bones.

World Outlook
Brazil's Inflation Quickened for Third Straight Month in November to 0.41%.
Emerging-market spreads over U.S. Treasuries narrowed on speculation any default of state-owned companies in Dubai won’t affect the ability of Asian governments to meet their debt obligations.

The world of socialism is bleak. The leftist Obama administration has turned out to be more dangerous to American liberty than anyone believed before his election. A 50% retracement of this year's 60% stock market gain would not be unusual in this situation where Obama high point was nationalized and destruction of GM to save union votes and financial support. GM is now among the living dead; just another money pit until it gets liquidated. Instead of stimulating the economy with a tax break to Americans who have been successful in creating wealth Obama has given $800 billion for his supporters who are expert only in creating envy and discontent and in dissipating other peoples money (OPM). Socialism is legal government of, by, and for sycophants. Socialism does not have to be Stalinist or Nazi to be tyranny. Socialism is tyranny in any form even when it is just two people democratically voting to expropriate the fruit of a third person's labor.

Market Outlook:
The U.S. and the world are near the top of the biggest one year stock market bubble since the 1930s. We have given precise calls in the past of interim tops and bottoms. Six more days like the last six could cause simultaneous respiral (modified parabolic SAR) and the modified MACD indicator sell signals. The MCF (Market Cash Flow) index gave a sell signal some time ago and the volume adjusted NYSE index is about ready to show its second shoulder sell signal. Some people would wait until the neckline breakdown occurs to confirm the head and shoulders sell signal. It would be unusual, but this year the way things are going right now, this market could correct before Christmas rather than in January as we were expecting.

The NYSE is now 3.9% below the required sustainable cyclical bull market's head level and thus is still a declining shoulder. It is not looking good for a continuation of the current market bubble as less than three weeks remain in the Christmas season rally. The $800Billion union/welfare stimulation package has been spent but when one gives cash to featherbeders, shirkers, socialist comrades, and lazy people one does not create jobs. Obama, the community activist, would like us to believe he did not know that one only buys votes his way. Americans are increasingly unhappy with Obama's socialism.

Bernanke and NY Fed president Dudley affirmed low rates would continue into next year easing fears of a rate hike.
Copenhagen welcomed Obama administration climate fraud as the EPA declared that animal breath is a toxic planet gas.
Business roundtable opposes health reform that has a public option, increases costs, or shifts costs to the private sector.


This week:
Thursday, Dec. 10:
Weekly unemployed Claims
US Trade Deficit

Friday, Dec. 11
Nov Retail Sales
UM consumer sentiment


Market forces December 9
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 3.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The market already looks like it is topping out. In any event after a possible year end rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -25%.

Asian markets were down over night; China down -1.7%, Hong Kong down -1.4%, India down -0.6%, Japan down -1.3%, Seoul up 0.4% and Taiwan up 0.4%.

European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.7% to +0.2% this morning about half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are falling again at the moment but still about +0.2% today at 9 AM EST.

It is important to be able to take stock profits soon if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.9% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. Continuation with the current market bubble looks like it now will be a bumpy lateral ride. The downside risk could be as great as 25% now given the mess leftists in Congress and Obama are creating. The market slide could begin as early as is six business days.

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