Dubai stands as international Arab mockery of Al Quaeda.
World Outlook
US treasury rates fall as Dubai continues to shake the world's banking system. But the United Arab Emirates’ central bank now said it would back the state’s lenders as they face losses from Dubai World’s possible default. While the Moslem terrorists bomb and terrorize infidel night spots around the world, gambling, alcohol and sex for "devout" Moslems leaders continues on Spain's coast de sol and closer to home in Dubai. Dubai stands high in international Arab mockery and dismissal of Al Quaeda and other Moslem religious fanatics.
Market Outlook:
The hedge funds that missed this year's bull market are now buying everything they can before the year end quarterly reports are closed out. Investors who caught the bull market have been taking profits and raising cash. Real estate is down on average close to 30% and bargain hunting for high-end properties is just beginning. Many Chinese billionaires are internationally mobile and are looking abroad. This is a harbinger of a potential brain drain of Chinese entrepreneurs and billionaire retirees.
This week's economic calendar
Tuesday, Dec. 1:
November ISM manufacturing index
Corporate Profits
Construction Spending
Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, Dec. 2:
Challenger Layoff Report
ADP Jobs Report
Fed's Beige Book minutes of the last meeting
Thursday, Dec. 3:
Unemployment Claims
Productivity
ISM non-Manufacture Index
Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders
Today, Monday, Nov 30,
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
Market forces November 30
We estimate the NYSE must now rise 3.7% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. Today may be the last opportunity to avoid an outright sell signal. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets recovered some of last week's losses from Dubai news; China up 3.2%, Hong Kong up 3.3%, India up 1.8%, Japan up 2.9%, Seoul up 2.0% and Taiwan up 1.2%.
European markets are drifting lower with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are just now declining about today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.7% above Friday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW is up but the DOW is where stock money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
Lack of confidence in Obama and other world leaders is shaking the world.
World Outlook
U.S. stock-index futures slump. Bank of America declines and U.S. stock futures plunged, indicating the US market will join a global slump, as Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt rattled investors and drove banks lower. How could an oil rich Muslim society be bankrupt? Maybe they spend too much money on terrorism? Maybe they behead the wrong people? How could Muslim theocratic socialism be a failure even with all their oil?
Market Outlook:
Solar and alternative energy is a good idea even if nature and not man is the cause of global warming because Muslim theocratic socialism and terrorism makes oil a very dirty business.
This week:
Existing Home Sales were up over 10%.
The government revised its estimate of third quarter GDP to 2.8% growth from its initial 3.5% figure. The Conference Board's November consumer confidence index was up slightly but not as much as investors hoped. The final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index was improved. Home Price Index in 20 U.S. cities indicated it probably has bottomed.
Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October and new U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to by 30,000 to the lowest since September 2008.
Orders for goods meant to last several years unexpectedly fell in October, restrained by a drop in demand for defense equipment and a reminder the economic recovery will be slow to gain speed.
New Home Sales were up!!
Today, Friday, Nov 27, the Muslim theocratic socialists and terrorists of the world can't manage their wealth and could endanger world oil supplies. This new Muslim economic terror of pending default may just raise oil and gas prices for them.
Market forces November 27
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.2% from Wednesday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The Dubai surprise may precipitate a new worldwide economic crisis. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%. Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same. Corruption and leftist loony incompetence is driving the popularity of the Obama administration lower by the day. Having the socialists and loony left in power in America is a constant threat to American freedoms, scientific integrity, free enterprise, and world stability.
Asian markets were down sharply due to Dubai last night; China down -2.4%, Hong Kong down -4.8%, India down -1.3%, Japan down -3.2%, Seoul down -4.7%and Taiwan down -3.2%.
European markets were down more than 3% Thursday but are recovering today with the average in a range from 0.3% to 0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -2%% today at 9:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.2% above Wednesday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW is up but the DOW is where money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions. Will the Muslim world be forced to sell gold now or will uncertainty drive gold prices higher still? It is more likely gold prices will continue to rise.
U.S. stock-index futures slump. Bank of America declines and U.S. stock futures plunged, indicating the US market will join a global slump, as Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt rattled investors and drove banks lower. How could an oil rich Muslim society be bankrupt? Maybe they spend too much money on terrorism? Maybe they behead the wrong people? How could Muslim theocratic socialism be a failure even with all their oil?
Market Outlook:
Solar and alternative energy is a good idea even if nature and not man is the cause of global warming because Muslim theocratic socialism and terrorism makes oil a very dirty business.
This week:
Existing Home Sales were up over 10%.
The government revised its estimate of third quarter GDP to 2.8% growth from its initial 3.5% figure. The Conference Board's November consumer confidence index was up slightly but not as much as investors hoped. The final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index was improved. Home Price Index in 20 U.S. cities indicated it probably has bottomed.
Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October and new U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to by 30,000 to the lowest since September 2008.
Orders for goods meant to last several years unexpectedly fell in October, restrained by a drop in demand for defense equipment and a reminder the economic recovery will be slow to gain speed.
New Home Sales were up!!
Today, Friday, Nov 27, the Muslim theocratic socialists and terrorists of the world can't manage their wealth and could endanger world oil supplies. This new Muslim economic terror of pending default may just raise oil and gas prices for them.
Market forces November 27
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.2% from Wednesday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. The Dubai surprise may precipitate a new worldwide economic crisis. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%. Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same. Corruption and leftist loony incompetence is driving the popularity of the Obama administration lower by the day. Having the socialists and loony left in power in America is a constant threat to American freedoms, scientific integrity, free enterprise, and world stability.
Asian markets were down sharply due to Dubai last night; China down -2.4%, Hong Kong down -4.8%, India down -1.3%, Japan down -3.2%, Seoul down -4.7%and Taiwan down -3.2%.
European markets were down more than 3% Thursday but are recovering today with the average in a range from 0.3% to 0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down about -2%% today at 9:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.2% above Wednesday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW is up but the DOW is where money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions. Will the Muslim world be forced to sell gold now or will uncertainty drive gold prices higher still? It is more likely gold prices will continue to rise.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Obama will have three Navy SEALs face court marshal for capturing most-wanted Iraq Muslim terrorist
World Outlook
The Obama administration incompetence and leftist agenda seen around the world is difficult to understand. Remember the four Americans transporting supplies for a catering company when they were ambushed and killed by terrorists in Fallujah? You know... the ones the Iraq insurgents burned and dragged through Fallujah? Remember they hanged two of the bodies on a bridge over the Euphrates River for the world press to photograph? That Fallujah atrocity came to symbolize the sadistic brutality of the Muslim terrorists in Iraq. Well the Muslim terrorist ring leader in charge, Ahmed Hashim Abed, whom the military code-named "Objective Amber", was finally captured in September. He told investigators his captors, three American Navy Seals, bloodied his lip. Obama now has the three Navy Seals up for court marshal.
The Obama administration has delayed the Afghan deployment decision but has already released the information on the U.S. troop surge target area in the Afghan Muslim Taliban bastion around Kandahar. That is to be considerate and allow the Muslim Taliban sadists to move out in time and kill and terrorize someplace else.
Where has Obama left his mind? Can anybody find it for him?
Market Outlook:
Russians hacking into a British University and exposing the data manipulation of the corrupt environmental scientists have exposed the European leftist cap-n-trade fraud. The corrupt scientists claim it is man and not the normal warming after each ice age that is the cause the warming after the last ice age 15000 years ago. But if that were true why did it warm up and the ocean rise after the previous nine ice ages known to have occurred before man existed? Duhhhh. Until the leftist Obama Administration came into power, America, Russia, and China tried to keep science uncorrupted. The democrat administration of President Clinton was actually the first to reject the corrupt environmental Kyoto agreement, and President Bush then tried to keep American science free of corruption. But the EPA and some in NASA are destroying science in America with this Euro-leftist scam by going along and corrupting the data they collect.
For that reason solar and alternative energy corporations of today are likely to eventually go bankrupt when this singular leftist administration leaves office. And that is a shame because most people know it is important to preserve the environment and conserve energy. But our argument for conservation has been tarnished and discredited now by Obama's loony socialist left supporters.
This week:
Existing Home Sales were up over 10%.
The government revised its estimate of third quarter GDP to 2.8% growth from its initial 3.5% figure. The Conference Board's November consumer confidence index was up slightly but not as much as investors hoped. The final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index is due next. Home Price Index in 20 U.S. cities probably indicated it might have bottomed.
Today, Wednesday, Nov 25:
Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October more than anticipated an indication that mounting unemployment has yet to stifle American’s willingness to buy.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 466,000, the lowest since September 2008.
Orders for goods meant to last several years unexpectedly fell in October, restrained by a drop in demand for defense equipment and a reminder the economic recovery will be slow to gain speed.
New Home Sales ??
Thursday, Closed
Market forces November 25
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders formation is confirmed then the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%. Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same. Corruption and leftist incompetence is driving the popularity of the Obama administration lower by the day. Having the socialists and loony left in power in America is a constant threat to American freedoms, scientific integrity, and free enterprise.
Asian markets were up last night; China up 2.1%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India up 0.4%, Japan up 0.4%, Seoul up 0.3%and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from +0.9% to +1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up about +0.4% today at 9:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.9% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW is up but the DOW is where money goes when the market is shaky. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
The Obama administration incompetence and leftist agenda seen around the world is difficult to understand. Remember the four Americans transporting supplies for a catering company when they were ambushed and killed by terrorists in Fallujah? You know... the ones the Iraq insurgents burned and dragged through Fallujah? Remember they hanged two of the bodies on a bridge over the Euphrates River for the world press to photograph? That Fallujah atrocity came to symbolize the sadistic brutality of the Muslim terrorists in Iraq. Well the Muslim terrorist ring leader in charge, Ahmed Hashim Abed, whom the military code-named "Objective Amber", was finally captured in September. He told investigators his captors, three American Navy Seals, bloodied his lip. Obama now has the three Navy Seals up for court marshal.
The Obama administration has delayed the Afghan deployment decision but has already released the information on the U.S. troop surge target area in the Afghan Muslim Taliban bastion around Kandahar. That is to be considerate and allow the Muslim Taliban sadists to move out in time and kill and terrorize someplace else.
Where has Obama left his mind? Can anybody find it for him?
Market Outlook:
Russians hacking into a British University and exposing the data manipulation of the corrupt environmental scientists have exposed the European leftist cap-n-trade fraud. The corrupt scientists claim it is man and not the normal warming after each ice age that is the cause the warming after the last ice age 15000 years ago. But if that were true why did it warm up and the ocean rise after the previous nine ice ages known to have occurred before man existed? Duhhhh. Until the leftist Obama Administration came into power, America, Russia, and China tried to keep science uncorrupted. The democrat administration of President Clinton was actually the first to reject the corrupt environmental Kyoto agreement, and President Bush then tried to keep American science free of corruption. But the EPA and some in NASA are destroying science in America with this Euro-leftist scam by going along and corrupting the data they collect.
For that reason solar and alternative energy corporations of today are likely to eventually go bankrupt when this singular leftist administration leaves office. And that is a shame because most people know it is important to preserve the environment and conserve energy. But our argument for conservation has been tarnished and discredited now by Obama's loony socialist left supporters.
This week:
Existing Home Sales were up over 10%.
The government revised its estimate of third quarter GDP to 2.8% growth from its initial 3.5% figure. The Conference Board's November consumer confidence index was up slightly but not as much as investors hoped. The final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index is due next. Home Price Index in 20 U.S. cities probably indicated it might have bottomed.
Today, Wednesday, Nov 25:
Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October more than anticipated an indication that mounting unemployment has yet to stifle American’s willingness to buy.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 466,000, the lowest since September 2008.
Orders for goods meant to last several years unexpectedly fell in October, restrained by a drop in demand for defense equipment and a reminder the economic recovery will be slow to gain speed.
New Home Sales ??
Thursday, Closed
Market forces November 25
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.9% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders formation is confirmed then the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%. Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same. Corruption and leftist incompetence is driving the popularity of the Obama administration lower by the day. Having the socialists and loony left in power in America is a constant threat to American freedoms, scientific integrity, and free enterprise.
Asian markets were up last night; China up 2.1%, Hong Kong up 0.8%, India up 0.4%, Japan up 0.4%, Seoul up 0.3%and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from +0.9% to +1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up about +0.4% today at 9:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.9% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW is up but the DOW is where money goes when the market is shaky. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
The Bomber still enjoys his election honeymoon but his rating is now below Sarah Palin's
Will the GE/MSNBC/Pravda socialist network abandon Obama now that his election honeymoon period is about to end?
World Outlook
The world begins to reel in horror at the ineptness of the lunatic leftists of the Obama administration. Soldiers die while Obama can't make up his mind on what to do. Now he thinks Americans need a specific National Defense tax of 1% on every taxpayer. Fortunately for Obama most of his supporters are not taxpayers and those that are, happen to be experienced tax cheats and liars. But if Obama imposes a National Defense Tax the next congress may just propose a Welfare Tax on leftists and quickly end Obama's socialist welfare state. Leftists only spend other people's money because they produce so little of any value themselves.
Market Outlook:
The profits of the banks are not the fruit of the labor of great minds in the banking business. The profit is an infusion of money loaned to the banks at a negative real interest rate complements of the American taxpayers, present and future. Excessive bonuses probably will be clawed back by the administration.
This week:
Economic data takes precedence over earnings this week. Home sales, gross domestic product, and personal income and spending will all be released early this week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
The government is likely to revise its estimate of third quarter GDP today to 3% growth, from its initial 3.5% figure. Also out today is the nonprofit Conference Board's November consumer confidence index and the final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Wednesday the government reports on October durable goods orders and October personal income and spending.
Monday Nov 23:
Existing Home Sales were up over 10%
Today, Nov 24:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate Profits
Home Price Index in 20 U.S. cities probably fell in September at the slowest pace in almost two years.
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Nov 25:
New Home Sales
Unemployment Claims
Consumer sentiment
Durable Goods Orders
Personal Income & Spending
Thursday, Friday Closed
Market forces November 24
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal 3% to 5% correction would be due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders formation is confirmed then the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%. Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets were down sharply last night; China down -3.5%, Hong Kong down -1.5%, India down -0.3%, Japan down -1%, Seoul down -0.8%and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from -0.1% to +0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are flat at about 0% today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.7% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
World Outlook
The world begins to reel in horror at the ineptness of the lunatic leftists of the Obama administration. Soldiers die while Obama can't make up his mind on what to do. Now he thinks Americans need a specific National Defense tax of 1% on every taxpayer. Fortunately for Obama most of his supporters are not taxpayers and those that are, happen to be experienced tax cheats and liars. But if Obama imposes a National Defense Tax the next congress may just propose a Welfare Tax on leftists and quickly end Obama's socialist welfare state. Leftists only spend other people's money because they produce so little of any value themselves.
Market Outlook:
The profits of the banks are not the fruit of the labor of great minds in the banking business. The profit is an infusion of money loaned to the banks at a negative real interest rate complements of the American taxpayers, present and future. Excessive bonuses probably will be clawed back by the administration.
This week:
Economic data takes precedence over earnings this week. Home sales, gross domestic product, and personal income and spending will all be released early this week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
The government is likely to revise its estimate of third quarter GDP today to 3% growth, from its initial 3.5% figure. Also out today is the nonprofit Conference Board's November consumer confidence index and the final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Wednesday the government reports on October durable goods orders and October personal income and spending.
Monday Nov 23:
Existing Home Sales were up over 10%
Today, Nov 24:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate Profits
Home Price Index in 20 U.S. cities probably fell in September at the slowest pace in almost two years.
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Nov 25:
New Home Sales
Unemployment Claims
Consumer sentiment
Durable Goods Orders
Personal Income & Spending
Thursday, Friday Closed
Market forces November 24
We estimate the NYSE must still rise 2.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal 3% to 5% correction would be due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders formation is confirmed then the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%. Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.
Asian markets were down sharply last night; China down -3.5%, Hong Kong down -1.5%, India down -0.3%, Japan down -1%, Seoul down -0.8%and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from -0.1% to +0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are flat at about 0% today at 8:00 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 2.7% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Russian hackers expose global warming fraud and academic corruption
World Outlook
One of the greatest impediments to the free economy and democracy in the future is cap-n-trade. The socialists of the world are united in this new method to fund, control, and grow international government.
The Wall Street Journal, NY Times, and other news carriers now proclaim the news that Global Warming research has been corrupted using fabricated data and by the exclusion of truthful publications by real scientists, all for the purpose of cap-n-trade international taxation of advanced nations. The vast majority of American, Chinese and Russian scientists continue to debunk the melodramatic nonsense and the junk science presented by Nobel Prize whiners Al Gore and President Jimmy. Hundreds of e-mail messages and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among scientists, who say they show that ethical morons conspired to overstate the case for a human influence on climate.
Officials at the University of East Anglia confirmed in a statement on Friday that files had been hacked from a university server and that the police had been brought in to investigate the breach. Several scientists and others contacted by The New York Times confirmed that they were the authors or recipients of specific e-mail messages included in the file. The revelations are bound to inflame the public as hundreds of socialists prepare to impose an international Copenhagen climate accord for new taxes that will fund foreign aid. No longer will advanced countries be able to use foreign aid as a tool for democracy or free trade.
Many e-mail messages, written by American and British climate buffs include discussions about excluding contradicting scientific data, exchanges about how best to suppress the arguments of true scientists, and derisive comments about scientists known for their opposing views.
Some scientists asserted Friday that the correspondence revealed an effort to withhold scientific information and manipulate opinions. “This is not a smoking gun; this is a mushroom cloud,” said Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist who has long faulted evidence pointing to human-driven warming and who is one of the serious scientists criticized in the documents.
Some of the correspondence portrays the Al Gore junk-scientists as feeling under siege by the skeptics’ camp and worried that any stray white lie or slightly fabricated data could be turned against them.
While hundreds of thousands of scientists acknowledge that climate change has impacted life on earth for more than 400 million years only about 10,000 have had the hubris to sign the well publicized petition claiming that man is altering the climate of earth. It was the Mians who originally sought to control the climate by using human sacrifice. And today it is primarily the less literate of the third world that believes cap-and-trade sacrifices could redistribute world wealth to the third world.
In several e-mail exchanges, Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other scientists discuss gaps in understanding of recent variations in temperature. Some junk science buffs want to fabricate even more data. Dr. Trenberth writes, “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Dr. Trenberth said Friday that he was appalled at the release of the e-mail messages. Some of the email shows the lack of integrity of the junk-scientists and many of the e-mails lend them to being interpreted as sinister.
The NY Times said that in a 1999 e-mail exchange about charts showing climate patterns over the last two millenniums, Phil Jones, a longtime climate junk-scientist at the East Anglia Climate Research Unit, said he had used a “trick” employed by another scientist, Michael Mann, to “hide the decline” in temperatures.
Dr. Mann, a professor at Pennsylvania State University, defined tricks in an interview. Very often the selection of the statistical averaging technique can be used to change the trend of the data. But the simplest method is to have several choices and select the one that gives the answer you want. At issue were sets of data, both employed in two studies. One data set showed long-term temperature effects on tree rings; the other, specially selected sets of thermometer readings for the past 100 years. Through the last century, tree rings and selected thermometers showed a consistent rise in temperature until 1960, when suddenly, for statistical reasons only certain selected thermometers show that temperature rise. Dr. Mann explained that the reliability of the tree-ring data and other thermometers was therefore called into question, and is no longer used to track temperature fluctuations. But he said dropping the use of the tree rings was never something that was hidden. “It sounds incriminating, but when you look at what you’re talking about, there’s nothing there,” Dr. Mann rationalizes.
Stephen McIntyre, a blogger who on his Web site, climateaudit.org, has for years been challenging data used to chart climate patterns, and who came in for heated criticism in some e-mail messages, called the revelations “quite breathtaking.”
Market Outlook:
The median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for policy makers to keep their target rate for overnight loans between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent until the third quarter of 2010.
Mexico’s economy contracted 6.2% in the third quarter. That is a 2.4% improvement from the previous three months but still indicating a deep recession.
This week:
Economic data will take precedence over earnings next week. Home sales, gross domestic product, and personal income and spending will all be released early this week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Economists predict reports on October existing and new home sales, to be released Monday and Wednesday, respectively, both will show growth from the previous month, continuing the general trend since late spring.
On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller index will detail September home sales prices in 20 major metropolitan areas.
The government is likely to revise its estimate of third-quarter GDP on Tuesday to 3% growth, from its initial 3.5% figure. Also out that day is the nonprofit Conference Board's November consumer confidence index and the final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index. The next day, the government reports on October durable goods orders and October personal income and spending.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from the recent meeting of its interest-rate panel Tuesday. Reports on regional manufacturing activities are due Monday from the Chicago Fed, Tuesday from the Richmond Fed and Wednesday from the Kansas City Fed.
Today Nov 23:
Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, Nov 24:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate Profits
Case Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Nov 25:
New Home Sales
Unemployment Claims
Consumer sentiment
Durable Goods Orders
Personal Income & Spending
Thursday, Friday Closed
Market forces November 23
We estimate the NYSE must now rise 3.6% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder sell signal. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal 3% to 5% correction is due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders formation is confirmed then the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were up last night; China up 0.9%, Hong Kong up 1.4%, India up 0.9%, Japan down -0.5%, Seoul flat 0.1%and Taiwan flat -0.1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from +1.2% to +1.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up at about 0.9% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.6% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
One of the greatest impediments to the free economy and democracy in the future is cap-n-trade. The socialists of the world are united in this new method to fund, control, and grow international government.
The Wall Street Journal, NY Times, and other news carriers now proclaim the news that Global Warming research has been corrupted using fabricated data and by the exclusion of truthful publications by real scientists, all for the purpose of cap-n-trade international taxation of advanced nations. The vast majority of American, Chinese and Russian scientists continue to debunk the melodramatic nonsense and the junk science presented by Nobel Prize whiners Al Gore and President Jimmy. Hundreds of e-mail messages and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among scientists, who say they show that ethical morons conspired to overstate the case for a human influence on climate.
Officials at the University of East Anglia confirmed in a statement on Friday that files had been hacked from a university server and that the police had been brought in to investigate the breach. Several scientists and others contacted by The New York Times confirmed that they were the authors or recipients of specific e-mail messages included in the file. The revelations are bound to inflame the public as hundreds of socialists prepare to impose an international Copenhagen climate accord for new taxes that will fund foreign aid. No longer will advanced countries be able to use foreign aid as a tool for democracy or free trade.
Many e-mail messages, written by American and British climate buffs include discussions about excluding contradicting scientific data, exchanges about how best to suppress the arguments of true scientists, and derisive comments about scientists known for their opposing views.
Some scientists asserted Friday that the correspondence revealed an effort to withhold scientific information and manipulate opinions. “This is not a smoking gun; this is a mushroom cloud,” said Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist who has long faulted evidence pointing to human-driven warming and who is one of the serious scientists criticized in the documents.
Some of the correspondence portrays the Al Gore junk-scientists as feeling under siege by the skeptics’ camp and worried that any stray white lie or slightly fabricated data could be turned against them.
While hundreds of thousands of scientists acknowledge that climate change has impacted life on earth for more than 400 million years only about 10,000 have had the hubris to sign the well publicized petition claiming that man is altering the climate of earth. It was the Mians who originally sought to control the climate by using human sacrifice. And today it is primarily the less literate of the third world that believes cap-and-trade sacrifices could redistribute world wealth to the third world.
In several e-mail exchanges, Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other scientists discuss gaps in understanding of recent variations in temperature. Some junk science buffs want to fabricate even more data. Dr. Trenberth writes, “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” Dr. Trenberth said Friday that he was appalled at the release of the e-mail messages. Some of the email shows the lack of integrity of the junk-scientists and many of the e-mails lend them to being interpreted as sinister.
The NY Times said that in a 1999 e-mail exchange about charts showing climate patterns over the last two millenniums, Phil Jones, a longtime climate junk-scientist at the East Anglia Climate Research Unit, said he had used a “trick” employed by another scientist, Michael Mann, to “hide the decline” in temperatures.
Dr. Mann, a professor at Pennsylvania State University, defined tricks in an interview. Very often the selection of the statistical averaging technique can be used to change the trend of the data. But the simplest method is to have several choices and select the one that gives the answer you want. At issue were sets of data, both employed in two studies. One data set showed long-term temperature effects on tree rings; the other, specially selected sets of thermometer readings for the past 100 years. Through the last century, tree rings and selected thermometers showed a consistent rise in temperature until 1960, when suddenly, for statistical reasons only certain selected thermometers show that temperature rise. Dr. Mann explained that the reliability of the tree-ring data and other thermometers was therefore called into question, and is no longer used to track temperature fluctuations. But he said dropping the use of the tree rings was never something that was hidden. “It sounds incriminating, but when you look at what you’re talking about, there’s nothing there,” Dr. Mann rationalizes.
Stephen McIntyre, a blogger who on his Web site, climateaudit.org, has for years been challenging data used to chart climate patterns, and who came in for heated criticism in some e-mail messages, called the revelations “quite breathtaking.”
Market Outlook:
The median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for policy makers to keep their target rate for overnight loans between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent until the third quarter of 2010.
Mexico’s economy contracted 6.2% in the third quarter. That is a 2.4% improvement from the previous three months but still indicating a deep recession.
This week:
Economic data will take precedence over earnings next week. Home sales, gross domestic product, and personal income and spending will all be released early this week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Economists predict reports on October existing and new home sales, to be released Monday and Wednesday, respectively, both will show growth from the previous month, continuing the general trend since late spring.
On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller index will detail September home sales prices in 20 major metropolitan areas.
The government is likely to revise its estimate of third-quarter GDP on Tuesday to 3% growth, from its initial 3.5% figure. Also out that day is the nonprofit Conference Board's November consumer confidence index and the final November figure of the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer confidence index. The next day, the government reports on October durable goods orders and October personal income and spending.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from the recent meeting of its interest-rate panel Tuesday. Reports on regional manufacturing activities are due Monday from the Chicago Fed, Tuesday from the Richmond Fed and Wednesday from the Kansas City Fed.
Today Nov 23:
Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, Nov 24:
Q3 GDP Revision
Corporate Profits
Case Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Nov 25:
New Home Sales
Unemployment Claims
Consumer sentiment
Durable Goods Orders
Personal Income & Spending
Thursday, Friday Closed
Market forces November 23
We estimate the NYSE must now rise 3.6% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder sell signal. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal 3% to 5% correction is due… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders formation is confirmed then the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.
Asian markets were up last night; China up 0.9%, Hong Kong up 1.4%, India up 0.9%, Japan down -0.5%, Seoul flat 0.1%and Taiwan flat -0.1%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from +1.2% to +1.7% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up at about 0.9% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.6% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
Friday, November 20, 2009
While China's linking the Huan to the dollar protects the dollar from attack it keeps the world in a deflationary spiral.
World Outlook
“Japan’s economy is in a mild deflationary phase,” Japan's government said in a monthly report in Tokyo yesterday, referring to prices in its evaluation. "The economy is “in a difficult situation,” the report continued.
China takes so much money out of the world's economy by selling goods under market value that it is sucking the economic life out of the world. When speculators attack the dollar, China devalues the Huan making China's products even cheaper, killing competition around the world, and driving down prices (deflation) thus supporting the dollar and defeating the $US speculators.
But if china were to abandon the dollar the dollar would fall, as would all the dollars China holds. Ultimately this is a no-win situation for China and the Chinese economy will collapse if it continues too long. In the mean time China is arming itself. China may be preparing to attack Taiwan, disputed territories in India, and mcould even invade disputed territories in Russia. I could also be preparing to suppressing any democratic revolution at home.
China must allow their currency to appreciate enough to help decrease the trade disconnect with America and that would stop world-wide deflation and yet that new link would continue to protect the dollar from a major attack for another year.
Market Outlook:
Unless the broader American stock market surges at least 3.2% on average volume over the next week we will have what looks to be a greater than 5% perhaps up to 20% drop in stock prices as the pessimists take over the market again. We can see the panic growing in Congress as unemployment grows. We expect the increase in newly unemployed will spike up this week as the unemployment extension kicks in unless they hide the increase with some sort of correction.
In the mean time Jim Cramer betrayed his followers yesterday by announcing that he got his followers out of natural gas (i.e. UNG) in time (which is a complete lie). Yesterday was the first time he went negative on natural gas and it has dropped 40% this year while he continually pumped the industry to his listeners. He also made fools of his followers yesterday by saying that just because he said the housing industry would bottom last July doesn't mean he meant his followers should have invested in that industry. He said he hated the housing industry where average prices in America have fallen 30% since 2006. Jim Cramer has a yellow streak down his back and he lies and backtracks once again after losing his followers another fortune. After once again pumping stocks at their height in prices Jim Cramer turns negative after the market declines instead of telling them to sell into the peak.
But on the positive side the market volume collapsed yesterday saying that the sellers were hesitating and pulling back as prices fell. There still is the possibility of that 3.2% rise in the broad market that is needed if a substantial correction (10% to 20%) is to be avoided and replaced by the 3% to 5% type corrections we have had since March.
This week recap:
This is an important week. We expected an improvement in housing markets.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production.
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
In September, the goods deficit increased $5.6 billion from August to $47.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $11.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $90.3 billion, and imports of goods increased $9.1 billion to $138.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $41.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $30.5 billion. This shows world trade is improving.
Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months.
Housing has bottomed and the economy should grow at a reasonable pace next year, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told state legislators Tuesday. In housing, Jeffrey M. Lacker said several indicators of sales and construction activity hit low points earlier this year and have already risen modestly.
"Housing is no longer a major drag on GDP growth," he said, referring to gross domestic product, which is the sum total of goods and service produced in the country.
"In fact, it should make positive contributions, in welcome contrast to the past three years."
Consumer Price Index showed that inflation has not yet started.
Housing Starts were down allowing the inventory of unsold homes to decrease so that prices of homes can stabilize and mortgage defaults can decline.
Yesterday:
Unemployment Claims- According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 505,000 new claims for unemployment insurance were filed last week, which is the same as the revised number for the week before. The four-week average - which is presented to even out volatility in data - decreased by 6,500 to 514,000 when compared to numbers from the previous week. That means the data was adjusted so that those who just got extensions were not counted as new claims but will be counted as unemployed rather than ignored altogether.
The index of leading economic indicators rose for the seventh consecutive month in October, showing that a recovery is "unfolding" in the U.S. economy, the private Conference Board said Thursday. The leading indicators rose 0.3% in October after a 1% gain in September, the private research group said. It was the smallest increase since March.
New home building permits were down meaning housing inventory could be reduced at a faster pace easing the downward pressure on prices.
Today there is little to look at except the market forces.
Market forces November 20
The market is now on its last legs. We estimate the NYSE must rise another 3.2% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder sell signal. But 3.2% would take two days and a new rally at this point may not be that long-lived. In any event even if the market surged 3.2% a normal 3% to 5% correction is due so it is still wise to take profits were possible.
Asian markets were slightly lower last night; China down -0.4%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India up 1.4%, Japan down -0.5%, Seoul flat 0.0%and Taiwan down -1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.4% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down at about -0.6% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits quickly if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.2% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume within the next few days. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
“Japan’s economy is in a mild deflationary phase,” Japan's government said in a monthly report in Tokyo yesterday, referring to prices in its evaluation. "The economy is “in a difficult situation,” the report continued.
China takes so much money out of the world's economy by selling goods under market value that it is sucking the economic life out of the world. When speculators attack the dollar, China devalues the Huan making China's products even cheaper, killing competition around the world, and driving down prices (deflation) thus supporting the dollar and defeating the $US speculators.
But if china were to abandon the dollar the dollar would fall, as would all the dollars China holds. Ultimately this is a no-win situation for China and the Chinese economy will collapse if it continues too long. In the mean time China is arming itself. China may be preparing to attack Taiwan, disputed territories in India, and mcould even invade disputed territories in Russia. I could also be preparing to suppressing any democratic revolution at home.
China must allow their currency to appreciate enough to help decrease the trade disconnect with America and that would stop world-wide deflation and yet that new link would continue to protect the dollar from a major attack for another year.
Market Outlook:
Unless the broader American stock market surges at least 3.2% on average volume over the next week we will have what looks to be a greater than 5% perhaps up to 20% drop in stock prices as the pessimists take over the market again. We can see the panic growing in Congress as unemployment grows. We expect the increase in newly unemployed will spike up this week as the unemployment extension kicks in unless they hide the increase with some sort of correction.
In the mean time Jim Cramer betrayed his followers yesterday by announcing that he got his followers out of natural gas (i.e. UNG) in time (which is a complete lie). Yesterday was the first time he went negative on natural gas and it has dropped 40% this year while he continually pumped the industry to his listeners. He also made fools of his followers yesterday by saying that just because he said the housing industry would bottom last July doesn't mean he meant his followers should have invested in that industry. He said he hated the housing industry where average prices in America have fallen 30% since 2006. Jim Cramer has a yellow streak down his back and he lies and backtracks once again after losing his followers another fortune. After once again pumping stocks at their height in prices Jim Cramer turns negative after the market declines instead of telling them to sell into the peak.
But on the positive side the market volume collapsed yesterday saying that the sellers were hesitating and pulling back as prices fell. There still is the possibility of that 3.2% rise in the broad market that is needed if a substantial correction (10% to 20%) is to be avoided and replaced by the 3% to 5% type corrections we have had since March.
This week recap:
This is an important week. We expected an improvement in housing markets.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production.
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
In September, the goods deficit increased $5.6 billion from August to $47.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $11.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $90.3 billion, and imports of goods increased $9.1 billion to $138.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $41.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $30.5 billion. This shows world trade is improving.
Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months.
Housing has bottomed and the economy should grow at a reasonable pace next year, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told state legislators Tuesday. In housing, Jeffrey M. Lacker said several indicators of sales and construction activity hit low points earlier this year and have already risen modestly.
"Housing is no longer a major drag on GDP growth," he said, referring to gross domestic product, which is the sum total of goods and service produced in the country.
"In fact, it should make positive contributions, in welcome contrast to the past three years."
Consumer Price Index showed that inflation has not yet started.
Housing Starts were down allowing the inventory of unsold homes to decrease so that prices of homes can stabilize and mortgage defaults can decline.
Yesterday:
Unemployment Claims- According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 505,000 new claims for unemployment insurance were filed last week, which is the same as the revised number for the week before. The four-week average - which is presented to even out volatility in data - decreased by 6,500 to 514,000 when compared to numbers from the previous week. That means the data was adjusted so that those who just got extensions were not counted as new claims but will be counted as unemployed rather than ignored altogether.
The index of leading economic indicators rose for the seventh consecutive month in October, showing that a recovery is "unfolding" in the U.S. economy, the private Conference Board said Thursday. The leading indicators rose 0.3% in October after a 1% gain in September, the private research group said. It was the smallest increase since March.
New home building permits were down meaning housing inventory could be reduced at a faster pace easing the downward pressure on prices.
Today there is little to look at except the market forces.
Market forces November 20
The market is now on its last legs. We estimate the NYSE must rise another 3.2% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder sell signal. But 3.2% would take two days and a new rally at this point may not be that long-lived. In any event even if the market surged 3.2% a normal 3% to 5% correction is due so it is still wise to take profits were possible.
Asian markets were slightly lower last night; China down -0.4%, Hong Kong down -0.8%, India up 1.4%, Japan down -0.5%, Seoul flat 0.0%and Taiwan down -1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.4% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down at about -0.6% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to take stock profits quickly if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.2% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume within the next few days. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
While Europe and Asia exploit available clean natural gas, Obama's gasbag advisers have America digging up high sulfur coal.
Obama lacks common sense, continued:
Obama thinks Al Gore is not only the creator of the Internet but also an American prodigy and spokesman for Climate Change.
Al Gore said this last Thursday on the Tonight Show, "People think about geothermal energy - when they think about it at all - in terms of the hot water bubbling up in some places, but two kilometers or so down in most places there are these incredibly hot rocks, 'cause the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees, and the crust of the earth is hot "
Al Gore is considered to be extremely stupid by knowledgeable people. The surface of the sun has been measured and found to only be about 6000 degrees centigrade! Al Gore confuses earth with the center of the Sun! What an idiot Al Gore is and Al Gore and Obama are believers that man must sacrifice to control natural climate just as the Inca Indians believed they had to sacrifice virgins so that the sun would rise each day and crops would grow. It is human hubris to claim man can control the climate when man can't predict much less control even the weather.
We have Obama administration lunatics and idiots destroying everything our founding fathers created. Obama doesn't like our Constitution and said it was written by old white men and needs corrections. We had an avowed communist who came up with the "junk Car" stimulus package that stimulated Japan more than America. We discover that the terrorist Ft. Hood murderer who just killed 13 people was an Obama advisor on "Homeland Security". See page 29:
http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/old/PTTF_ProceedingsReport_05.19.09.pdf
We now have the very same ethical moron who let the Puerto Rican terrorists go free after killing a Connecticut security guard now overseeing the sham trial of the 911 terrorists in NYC. Yesterday Obama was put on the spot because the 911 terrorists were not read their Miranda rights and that alone is grounds in civil court for dismissal. To that revelation, Obama said he was confident the 911 defendants would be found guilty and executed. His internationally proclaimed prejudicial statement alone could set the 911 terrorists free in a civil court. Judicial experts say it was unwise to move the 911 terrorists from military court to civil court and that it undermines the war on terrorism and trivializes and makes a sham of justice in America. Obama already has said the waterboarding that was done was torture so by definition the 911 defendants were tortured according to Obama. And in civil court none of the confessions may therefore be considered. To top it off the 911 terrorists don't even have to testify in civil court even though they previously freely admitted their terrorist activities to the world.
Market Outlook:
A 1.6% surge in utilities, boosted by apparent global cooling drove up production last month. Also, companies in the U.S. are slowing the liquidation of inventories and their buying now is helping manufacturers. Every time Al Gore makes a speech the temperature drops. Most scientists agree that there is global warming but it just is natural not human in origin. Now surveys show that 43% of Americans even doubt there is any global warming natural or otherwise thanks to Al Gore's negative credibility.
It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China. But still the link protects the dollar from a major attack.
This week recap:
This is an important week. We expected an improvement in housing markets.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production.
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
In September, the goods deficit increased $5.6 billion from August to $47.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $11.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $90.3 billion, and imports of goods increased $9.1 billion to $138.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $41.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $30.5 billion. This shows world trade is improving.
Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months.
Housing has bottomed and the economy should grow at a reasonable pace next year, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told state legislators Tuesday. In housing, Jeffrey M. Lacker said several indicators of sales and construction activity hit low points earlier this year and have already risen modestly.
"Housing is no longer a major drag on GDP growth," he said, referring to gross domestic product, which is the sum total of goods and service produced in the country.
"In fact, it should make positive contributions, in welcome contrast to the past three years."
Consumer Price Index showed that inflation has not yet started.
Housing Starts were down allowing the inventory of unsold homes to decrease so that prices of homes can stabilize and mortgage defaults can decline.
Today, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims- If they do not jump today they will most certainly jump next week because there was a two week delay in passing the extension of the coverage.
Leading Indicators should be positive
Market forces November 19
The market is now on its last legs. We estimate the NYSE must still rise another 1.8% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder.
Asian markets were mixed again last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.9%, India down -1.3%, Japan down -1.3%, Seoul up 1.0%and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.6% to -0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down at about -0.7% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.8% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume within a week. Typically an intermediate rally would last a few days longer and have another chance for a spike upwards but the unemployment numbers today could be worse because the extension of benefits lapsed a few weeks and then was restarted. That could cause a small spike down and then a large spike back up the following week.
Obama thinks Al Gore is not only the creator of the Internet but also an American prodigy and spokesman for Climate Change.
Al Gore said this last Thursday on the Tonight Show, "People think about geothermal energy - when they think about it at all - in terms of the hot water bubbling up in some places, but two kilometers or so down in most places there are these incredibly hot rocks, 'cause the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees, and the crust of the earth is hot "
Al Gore is considered to be extremely stupid by knowledgeable people. The surface of the sun has been measured and found to only be about 6000 degrees centigrade! Al Gore confuses earth with the center of the Sun! What an idiot Al Gore is and Al Gore and Obama are believers that man must sacrifice to control natural climate just as the Inca Indians believed they had to sacrifice virgins so that the sun would rise each day and crops would grow. It is human hubris to claim man can control the climate when man can't predict much less control even the weather.
We have Obama administration lunatics and idiots destroying everything our founding fathers created. Obama doesn't like our Constitution and said it was written by old white men and needs corrections. We had an avowed communist who came up with the "junk Car" stimulus package that stimulated Japan more than America. We discover that the terrorist Ft. Hood murderer who just killed 13 people was an Obama advisor on "Homeland Security". See page 29:
http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/old/PTTF_ProceedingsReport_05.19.09.pdf
We now have the very same ethical moron who let the Puerto Rican terrorists go free after killing a Connecticut security guard now overseeing the sham trial of the 911 terrorists in NYC. Yesterday Obama was put on the spot because the 911 terrorists were not read their Miranda rights and that alone is grounds in civil court for dismissal. To that revelation, Obama said he was confident the 911 defendants would be found guilty and executed. His internationally proclaimed prejudicial statement alone could set the 911 terrorists free in a civil court. Judicial experts say it was unwise to move the 911 terrorists from military court to civil court and that it undermines the war on terrorism and trivializes and makes a sham of justice in America. Obama already has said the waterboarding that was done was torture so by definition the 911 defendants were tortured according to Obama. And in civil court none of the confessions may therefore be considered. To top it off the 911 terrorists don't even have to testify in civil court even though they previously freely admitted their terrorist activities to the world.
Market Outlook:
A 1.6% surge in utilities, boosted by apparent global cooling drove up production last month. Also, companies in the U.S. are slowing the liquidation of inventories and their buying now is helping manufacturers. Every time Al Gore makes a speech the temperature drops. Most scientists agree that there is global warming but it just is natural not human in origin. Now surveys show that 43% of Americans even doubt there is any global warming natural or otherwise thanks to Al Gore's negative credibility.
It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China. But still the link protects the dollar from a major attack.
This week recap:
This is an important week. We expected an improvement in housing markets.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production.
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
In September, the goods deficit increased $5.6 billion from August to $47.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $11.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $90.3 billion, and imports of goods increased $9.1 billion to $138.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $41.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $30.5 billion. This shows world trade is improving.
Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months.
Housing has bottomed and the economy should grow at a reasonable pace next year, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told state legislators Tuesday. In housing, Jeffrey M. Lacker said several indicators of sales and construction activity hit low points earlier this year and have already risen modestly.
"Housing is no longer a major drag on GDP growth," he said, referring to gross domestic product, which is the sum total of goods and service produced in the country.
"In fact, it should make positive contributions, in welcome contrast to the past three years."
Consumer Price Index showed that inflation has not yet started.
Housing Starts were down allowing the inventory of unsold homes to decrease so that prices of homes can stabilize and mortgage defaults can decline.
Today, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims- If they do not jump today they will most certainly jump next week because there was a two week delay in passing the extension of the coverage.
Leading Indicators should be positive
Market forces November 19
The market is now on its last legs. We estimate the NYSE must still rise another 1.8% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder.
Asian markets were mixed again last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down -0.9%, India down -1.3%, Japan down -1.3%, Seoul up 1.0%and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.6% to -0.9% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down at about -0.7% today at 8:30 AM EST.
It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.8% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume within a week. Typically an intermediate rally would last a few days longer and have another chance for a spike upwards but the unemployment numbers today could be worse because the extension of benefits lapsed a few weeks and then was restarted. That could cause a small spike down and then a large spike back up the following week.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
China's Huan tied to the US Dollar is saving the US Dollar.
George Soros and other international socialists fail whenever they attack the dollar because now it is just like trying to attack the Chinese Huan and that destroys the $US speculators. The Huan is as strong as gold and attacking the dollar lowers the Huan and effectively is like trying to force down the price of gold. If China drops supporting the dollar, gold prices and other currencies could soar. That would destroy China's exports especially to the US, China's largest customer. That is why China has not abandoned the dollar yet.
Obama lacks common sense:
Now we have some insight into why Obama said not to jump to conclusions about Nidal Hasan. This murdering Muslim Terrorist who killed and wounded the soldiers and civilians at Ft Hood, Texas was actually an advisor to Obama's Homeland Security team. Look on page 29 of the Homeland Security Institute link below. Go to document's page number 29, scroll down toward the bottom on the Left Column.
http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/old/PTTF_ProceedingsReport_05.19.09.pdf
It is amazing that in addition to his lunatic left and former communist policy advisors Obama put a budding terrorist in as one of his homeland security advisors. Obama shows no common sense at all. That is not something one would expect from an American who loves his country unless he completely lacks any sense or good judgement.
Market Outlook:
A 1.6% surge in utilities, boosted by apparent global cooling drove production last month. Also, companies in the U.S. are slowing the liquidation of inventories and their buying now is helping manufacturers. Every time Al Gore makes a speech the temperature drops. Most scientists agree that there is global warming but it just is natural not human in origin. Now surveys show that 43% of Americans even doubt there is any global warming natural or otherwise thanks to Al Gore's negative credibility.
It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China. But still the relaxed link would still protect the dollar from a major attack.
This week
This is an important week. We expect an improvement in housing markets.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production.
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
In September, the goods deficit increased $5.6 billion from August to $47.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $11.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $90.3 billion, and imports of goods increased $9.1 billion to $138.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $41.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $30.5 billion. This shows world trade is improving.
Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months.
Housing has bottomed and the economy should grow at a reasonable pace next year, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told state legislators Tuesday. In housing, Jeffrey M. Lacker said several indicators of sales and construction activity hit low points earlier this year and have already risen modestly.
"Housing is no longer a major drag on GDP growth," he said, referring to gross domestic product, which is the sum total of goods and service produced in the country.
"In fact, it should make positive contributions, in welcome contrast to the past three years."
Today, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators
Market forces November 18
The broader market declined yesterday but on very low volume so that is good news. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for the analysis of the same risk for American Markets. We estimate it must still rise another 1.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder. If a bear market head-and-shoulder does not occur then we may see a small correction and another new high by the end of the year. Otherwise we want to be in cash. We used yesterday to take profits and go further into cash already because either way there will likely be a correction in the next few weeks. As the market tests highs there is a rapid rotation is stocks that can create upward spikes that are opportunities to sell. We remember that even in a flat market there are monthly cycles that can provide significant price declines and then potential gains in volatile stocks.
Asian markets were mixed again last night; China up 0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -0.3%, Japan down -0.6%, Seoul up 1.1%and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to 1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are flat at about -0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE was slightly lower yesterday but on very low volume. That was good. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.7% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume.
Obama lacks common sense:
Now we have some insight into why Obama said not to jump to conclusions about Nidal Hasan. This murdering Muslim Terrorist who killed and wounded the soldiers and civilians at Ft Hood, Texas was actually an advisor to Obama's Homeland Security team. Look on page 29 of the Homeland Security Institute link below. Go to document's page number 29, scroll down toward the bottom on the Left Column.
http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/old/PTTF_ProceedingsReport_05.19.09.pdf
It is amazing that in addition to his lunatic left and former communist policy advisors Obama put a budding terrorist in as one of his homeland security advisors. Obama shows no common sense at all. That is not something one would expect from an American who loves his country unless he completely lacks any sense or good judgement.
Market Outlook:
A 1.6% surge in utilities, boosted by apparent global cooling drove production last month. Also, companies in the U.S. are slowing the liquidation of inventories and their buying now is helping manufacturers. Every time Al Gore makes a speech the temperature drops. Most scientists agree that there is global warming but it just is natural not human in origin. Now surveys show that 43% of Americans even doubt there is any global warming natural or otherwise thanks to Al Gore's negative credibility.
It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China. But still the relaxed link would still protect the dollar from a major attack.
This week
This is an important week. We expect an improvement in housing markets.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production.
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
In September, the goods deficit increased $5.6 billion from August to $47.6 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $11.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.5 billion to $90.3 billion, and imports of goods increased $9.1 billion to $138.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $41.6 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $30.5 billion. This shows world trade is improving.
Industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October after having averaged monthly gains of about 0.9 percent over the previous three months.
Housing has bottomed and the economy should grow at a reasonable pace next year, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told state legislators Tuesday. In housing, Jeffrey M. Lacker said several indicators of sales and construction activity hit low points earlier this year and have already risen modestly.
"Housing is no longer a major drag on GDP growth," he said, referring to gross domestic product, which is the sum total of goods and service produced in the country.
"In fact, it should make positive contributions, in welcome contrast to the past three years."
Today, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators
Market forces November 18
The broader market declined yesterday but on very low volume so that is good news. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for the analysis of the same risk for American Markets. We estimate it must still rise another 1.7% from yesterday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder. If a bear market head-and-shoulder does not occur then we may see a small correction and another new high by the end of the year. Otherwise we want to be in cash. We used yesterday to take profits and go further into cash already because either way there will likely be a correction in the next few weeks. As the market tests highs there is a rapid rotation is stocks that can create upward spikes that are opportunities to sell. We remember that even in a flat market there are monthly cycles that can provide significant price declines and then potential gains in volatile stocks.
Asian markets were mixed again last night; China up 0.6%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -0.3%, Japan down -0.6%, Seoul up 1.1%and Taiwan up 0.4%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.4% to 1.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are flat at about -0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE was slightly lower yesterday but on very low volume. That was good. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.7% above yesterday's closing price and on above average volume.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Brazils 3Q GDP surprises with 9 percent growth and beats USA 3% growth.
Market Outlook
Brazil, China, and India now lead the world in growth but also in the greatest disparity between the rich and poor. Disparity there as well as in the USA is not due to unequal opportunity but because many people chose to keep their old ways and not even learn to speak correctly.
It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China.
This week
This is an important week. We expected retail sales rebounded in October, production to climb and more work on more houses.
Oct Retail Sales were a 1.4%.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
Tuesday, Nov 17:
Industrial Production & capacity
Producer Price Index
Sept Trade balance
Richmond Fed
Wednesday, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators
Market forces November 17
While the USA stock markets have advanced China's stock market has been sputtering and has not exceeded July-August levels. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for the analysis of the same risk for American Markets. While the NYSE has hit a new high it has suffered until yesterday with low upside volume. We estimate it must still rise another 1.6% from yesterday's high to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder. If that occurs then we may see a small correction and another new high by the end of the year. Otherwise we would be in cash. We used yesterday to take profits and go 30% into cash already because either way there will likely be a correction in the next few weeks.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1%, Japan down 0.6%, Seoul down -0.4%and Taiwan down -0.8%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.3% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down 0.4% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE set a new high but until yesterday had little supporting trade volume. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.6% above yesterday's high and on above average volume.
Brazil, China, and India now lead the world in growth but also in the greatest disparity between the rich and poor. Disparity there as well as in the USA is not due to unequal opportunity but because many people chose to keep their old ways and not even learn to speak correctly.
It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China.
This week
This is an important week. We expected retail sales rebounded in October, production to climb and more work on more houses.
Oct Retail Sales were a 1.4%.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.
Tuesday, Nov 17:
Industrial Production & capacity
Producer Price Index
Sept Trade balance
Richmond Fed
Wednesday, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators
Market forces November 17
While the USA stock markets have advanced China's stock market has been sputtering and has not exceeded July-August levels. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for the analysis of the same risk for American Markets. While the NYSE has hit a new high it has suffered until yesterday with low upside volume. We estimate it must still rise another 1.6% from yesterday's high to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder. If that occurs then we may see a small correction and another new high by the end of the year. Otherwise we would be in cash. We used yesterday to take profits and go 30% into cash already because either way there will likely be a correction in the next few weeks.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1%, Japan down 0.6%, Seoul down -0.4%and Taiwan down -0.8%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.3% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down 0.4% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE set a new high but until yesterday had little supporting trade volume. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.6% above yesterday's high and on above average volume.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Japans 3Q GDP surprises with 4.8 percent growth and beats USA 3% growth.
Market Outlook
But Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said, “The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation,”
Liu told reporters in Beijing that low rates and the dollar’s recent tumble have “seriously affected global asset prices, fuelled speculation in stock and property markets, and created new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging-market economies.” Liu spoke two days after Donald Tsang, the chief executive of Hong Kong, said the FED's policy of keeping rates near zero risks sparking the next financial crisis. This new criticism of the Fed and asset prices comes years after some analysts criticized the U.S. central bank for holding down borrowing costs for too long in 2003 and 2004 causing the bubble that collapsed and gave us the current crisis.
It all sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America which would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin inflation of export prices in the USA. Gold continues to rise in price. In Europe fuel and food price declines continue to cause deflation and a strengthening of the EURO.
This week
This is an important week. We expect retail sales rebounded in October, production climbed and work began on more houses.
Monday, Nov 16:
Oct Retail Sales
NY Fed Mfg
Bernanke speaks in NYC
Sept inventories
Tuesday, Nov 17:
Industrial Production & capacity
Producer Price Index
Sept Trade balance
Richmond Fed
Wednesday, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators
Market forces November 16
Many indications are that the economic situation in China is sputtering and China is not the world economic engine that American was before Obama. The anticipated spike upward began last week and is yet to determine if we have a continuing rally or a head and shoulders sell indication. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for this analysis not the Dow or S&P which easier for funds to manipulate. We will use the rally to get back into cash.
Asian markets were up last night; China up 2.7%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, India up 1.1%, Japan up 0.2%, Seoul up 1.3%and Taiwan up 1.7%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.9% to 1.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.8% today at 7:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE has not set a new high yet for this rally. The rally resumed last week. If the NYSE does not set a new high this week the mutual funds may start selling. If the new high is not almost 3.4% above the
This Obama malaise market is treacherous for stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now individual stocks often drop very sharply. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at lease 1.9% above the last high. That requires a 3.4% advance from where we closed Friday to avoid a head and shoulder bear market formation not the smaller 1.4% rally that would have been necessary if volume had held up.
While the DOW is at a 13-month high the broader American NYSE, has not yet reached new highs. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for over two months. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under the Jimmy Carter Malaise during the 1970s. The radical left also thought Jimmy was very smart and that Ronald Reagan was dumb. The opposite proved to be true. Reagan said, "Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."
It only takes one Obama to lose freedom and institute another socialist tyranny of government enforced mediocrity.
But Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said, “The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government’s indication that, in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won’t raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation,”
Liu told reporters in Beijing that low rates and the dollar’s recent tumble have “seriously affected global asset prices, fuelled speculation in stock and property markets, and created new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging-market economies.” Liu spoke two days after Donald Tsang, the chief executive of Hong Kong, said the FED's policy of keeping rates near zero risks sparking the next financial crisis. This new criticism of the Fed and asset prices comes years after some analysts criticized the U.S. central bank for holding down borrowing costs for too long in 2003 and 2004 causing the bubble that collapsed and gave us the current crisis.
It all sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America which would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin inflation of export prices in the USA. Gold continues to rise in price. In Europe fuel and food price declines continue to cause deflation and a strengthening of the EURO.
This week
This is an important week. We expect retail sales rebounded in October, production climbed and work began on more houses.
Monday, Nov 16:
Oct Retail Sales
NY Fed Mfg
Bernanke speaks in NYC
Sept inventories
Tuesday, Nov 17:
Industrial Production & capacity
Producer Price Index
Sept Trade balance
Richmond Fed
Wednesday, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators
Market forces November 16
Many indications are that the economic situation in China is sputtering and China is not the world economic engine that American was before Obama. The anticipated spike upward began last week and is yet to determine if we have a continuing rally or a head and shoulders sell indication. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for this analysis not the Dow or S&P which easier for funds to manipulate. We will use the rally to get back into cash.
Asian markets were up last night; China up 2.7%, Hong Kong up 1.7%, India up 1.1%, Japan up 0.2%, Seoul up 1.3%and Taiwan up 1.7%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.9% to 1.5% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.8% today at 7:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE has not set a new high yet for this rally. The rally resumed last week. If the NYSE does not set a new high this week the mutual funds may start selling. If the new high is not almost 3.4% above the
This Obama malaise market is treacherous for stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now individual stocks often drop very sharply. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at lease 1.9% above the last high. That requires a 3.4% advance from where we closed Friday to avoid a head and shoulder bear market formation not the smaller 1.4% rally that would have been necessary if volume had held up.
While the DOW is at a 13-month high the broader American NYSE, has not yet reached new highs. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for over two months. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under the Jimmy Carter Malaise during the 1970s. The radical left also thought Jimmy was very smart and that Ronald Reagan was dumb. The opposite proved to be true. Reagan said, "Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."
It only takes one Obama to lose freedom and institute another socialist tyranny of government enforced mediocrity.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Under Obama some lunatics think it is ok to kill their American daughters who refuse to wear a berka and to indiscriminately shoot Americans.
Obama should get the UN to condemn the one group in the world that thinks they have a god given right to kill Christians, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists, atheists, and gays, and to murder their daughters who refuse to wear a berka.
Today Brazil, South Korea and Russia seem to be losing the battle among developing nations to reduce gains in their currencies and keep exports competitive as the demand for their financial assets, driven by the slumping dollar, is proving more than their central banks can handle. The demand for gold now will rise independent of silver and other precious metals as nations build gold reserves. We are beginning to see inflation in building materials even though the sector has hardly revived. That is because that inflation has been hidden by the worldwide building recession simply because if you do not buy you don't know how much prices rose. But inflation of building prices will help real estate get its head above water again quickly next year.
The Obama that is beginning to settle on the USA just as a Jimmy Carter malaise did during his single term. Jimmy Carter was such a disappointment always fighting the last war. He was obsessed with human rights and the belief that we would run out of oil within twenty years. He left office with the world accusing the USA of human rights violations and with shortages of everything from energy to toilet paper. The discomfort index (inflation plus unemployment was over 20% when Jimmy was voted out of office and the American Nuclear program was destroyed by Jimmies lunatic left lead by Hanoi Jane Fonda who was seen by many as a traitor from the Kennedy and Johnson's Viet Nam War. Jimmy was also responsible for the Iran hostage situation that was a disaster because it could have been prevented and he had weakened the military so much that the rescue effort failed. The lunatic fringe thought Jimmy was the brightest president we ever had. Jimmy was professionally a nuclear engineer not an uneducated community activist like Obama who did not know what a PE ratio is and thought Wall Street was just an economic indicator like the price of wheat.
Market Outlook
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
Banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households.
The tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low. There were many planned Federal Reserve officials' speeches Monday that have been interpreted positively.
The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly small business optimism index grew for the third straight month, rising 0.3 points to 89.1 in October.
The Federal Reserve faces the biggest blows to its authority and independence in five decades under legislation championed by Senator Dodd
Unemployment Claims for last week were down because people fell off the unemployment roles because congress failed to extend their benefits before they expired. The bulls and bears were deceived and all the more reason these last few weeks are a good time to take profits and put something aside for the next more volatile decline. The sideways market movement during the president Jimmy years had much larger swings.
FED revealed a $175 billion monthly budget deficit and a $1.4 trillion federal deficit approach The 12.1 Trillion-dollar debt ceiling. Obama has tripled the USA deficit in just nine months with much wasted on bonuses and political and other corruption the depths yet to be plumed.
Today, Friday Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 13
Many indications are that the economic situation in China is sputtering and China is not the world economic engine that American was before Obama. Obama is failing miserably as president throwing money at his solidly indigent and lunatic left voting block, raising taxes on those who still have a work ethic, abandoning allies to eastern socialist theocratic tyrants and anti-Christian jihad. After a small pull back there is a chance of one more spike upward to determine if we have a head and shoulders sell indication. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for this analysis not the Dow or S&P which are manipulated by funds.
Asian markets were improved last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India up 0.9%, Japan down -0.4%, Seoul down -0.1%and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from 0.1% to -0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE has not set a new high yet for this rally. The rally faltered but could resume for a few days. If it does not the mutual funds may start selling.
This Obama malaise market is treacherous for stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now stocks often drop very sharply. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at lease 1.8% above the last high. Yesterday the market decline was on extremely low volume and that is why this improved form 2%. That requires a 5.3% advance from where we closed yesterday
While the DOW is at a 13-month high the broader American NYSE, has not yet reached new highs. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months. The NYSE now has to surpass the previous high by about 2% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we go into cash by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market until we know if this rally still has legs. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under similar conditions during the 1970s. Either the sidelines or active trading appear to be the equities market options at this time.
Today Brazil, South Korea and Russia seem to be losing the battle among developing nations to reduce gains in their currencies and keep exports competitive as the demand for their financial assets, driven by the slumping dollar, is proving more than their central banks can handle. The demand for gold now will rise independent of silver and other precious metals as nations build gold reserves. We are beginning to see inflation in building materials even though the sector has hardly revived. That is because that inflation has been hidden by the worldwide building recession simply because if you do not buy you don't know how much prices rose. But inflation of building prices will help real estate get its head above water again quickly next year.
The Obama that is beginning to settle on the USA just as a Jimmy Carter malaise did during his single term. Jimmy Carter was such a disappointment always fighting the last war. He was obsessed with human rights and the belief that we would run out of oil within twenty years. He left office with the world accusing the USA of human rights violations and with shortages of everything from energy to toilet paper. The discomfort index (inflation plus unemployment was over 20% when Jimmy was voted out of office and the American Nuclear program was destroyed by Jimmies lunatic left lead by Hanoi Jane Fonda who was seen by many as a traitor from the Kennedy and Johnson's Viet Nam War. Jimmy was also responsible for the Iran hostage situation that was a disaster because it could have been prevented and he had weakened the military so much that the rescue effort failed. The lunatic fringe thought Jimmy was the brightest president we ever had. Jimmy was professionally a nuclear engineer not an uneducated community activist like Obama who did not know what a PE ratio is and thought Wall Street was just an economic indicator like the price of wheat.
Market Outlook
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
Banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households.
The tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low. There were many planned Federal Reserve officials' speeches Monday that have been interpreted positively.
The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly small business optimism index grew for the third straight month, rising 0.3 points to 89.1 in October.
The Federal Reserve faces the biggest blows to its authority and independence in five decades under legislation championed by Senator Dodd
Unemployment Claims for last week were down because people fell off the unemployment roles because congress failed to extend their benefits before they expired. The bulls and bears were deceived and all the more reason these last few weeks are a good time to take profits and put something aside for the next more volatile decline. The sideways market movement during the president Jimmy years had much larger swings.
FED revealed a $175 billion monthly budget deficit and a $1.4 trillion federal deficit approach The 12.1 Trillion-dollar debt ceiling. Obama has tripled the USA deficit in just nine months with much wasted on bonuses and political and other corruption the depths yet to be plumed.
Today, Friday Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 13
Many indications are that the economic situation in China is sputtering and China is not the world economic engine that American was before Obama. Obama is failing miserably as president throwing money at his solidly indigent and lunatic left voting block, raising taxes on those who still have a work ethic, abandoning allies to eastern socialist theocratic tyrants and anti-Christian jihad. After a small pull back there is a chance of one more spike upward to determine if we have a head and shoulders sell indication. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for this analysis not the Dow or S&P which are manipulated by funds.
Asian markets were improved last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 0.7%, India up 0.9%, Japan down -0.4%, Seoul down -0.1%and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from 0.1% to -0.4% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE has not set a new high yet for this rally. The rally faltered but could resume for a few days. If it does not the mutual funds may start selling.
This Obama malaise market is treacherous for stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now stocks often drop very sharply. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at lease 1.8% above the last high. Yesterday the market decline was on extremely low volume and that is why this improved form 2%. That requires a 5.3% advance from where we closed yesterday
While the DOW is at a 13-month high the broader American NYSE, has not yet reached new highs. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months. The NYSE now has to surpass the previous high by about 2% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we go into cash by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market until we know if this rally still has legs. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under similar conditions during the 1970s. Either the sidelines or active trading appear to be the equities market options at this time.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Obama can't seem to make up his mind whether to fight Jihad in Moslem territory or on our own soil.
An Obama malaise is beginning to settle on the USA just as a Jimmy Carter malaise did during his single term. Jimmy Carter destroyed the American nuclear energy program and brought on the Iranian radical Islamic takeover and the Iranian hostage crisis. The lunatic left thought that Jimmy was the smartest president ever. But the lunatic left now thinks Obama is smarter. Obama's policies are making the situation far worse now and they seem geared towards the destruction of America both economically and militarily. The leftists say we must pretend the Ft Hood killings and the killings of Hindus, Buddhists, atheists, Christians and Jews around the world have nothing to do with the Moslem's institutionalized religions belief in hatred for and Jihad's against all infidels (i.e. all non Moslems).
Market Outlook
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
Banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households.
The tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low. There were many planned Federal Reserve officials' speeches Monday that have been interpreted positively.
The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly small business optimism index grew for the third straight month, rising 0.3 points to 89.1 in October.
The Federal Reserve faces the biggest blows to its authority and independence in five decades under legislation championed by Senator Dodd
Today, Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 12
Many indications are that the economic situation in China is sputtering and China is not the world economic engine that American was before Obama. Obama is failing miserably as president throwing money at his solidly indigent and lunatic left voting block, raising taxes on those who still have a work ethic, and abandoning allies to eastern socialist theocratic tyrants and anti-Christian jihadists.
Asian markets were faltering last night; China down -0.1%, Hong Kong down -1%, India down -0.9%, Japan down -0.7%, Seoul down -1.4%and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from 0% to -0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down 0.4% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE has not set a new high yet for this rally. The rally could falter and resume in a few days. If it does not the mutual funds may start selling. The WSJ had an article today on mutual fund timing entry and exits during this recession.
This Obama malaise market is treacherous for stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now stocks often drop very sharply. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at lease 2% above the last high.
While the DOW is at a 13-month high the broader American NYSE, has not yet reached new highs. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months. The NYSE now has to surpass the previous high by about 2% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we go into cash by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market until we know if this rally still has legs. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under similar conditions during the 1970s. Either the sidelines or active trading appear to be the equities market options at this time.
Market Outlook
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
Banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households.
The tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low. There were many planned Federal Reserve officials' speeches Monday that have been interpreted positively.
The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly small business optimism index grew for the third straight month, rising 0.3 points to 89.1 in October.
The Federal Reserve faces the biggest blows to its authority and independence in five decades under legislation championed by Senator Dodd
Today, Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 12
Many indications are that the economic situation in China is sputtering and China is not the world economic engine that American was before Obama. Obama is failing miserably as president throwing money at his solidly indigent and lunatic left voting block, raising taxes on those who still have a work ethic, and abandoning allies to eastern socialist theocratic tyrants and anti-Christian jihadists.
Asian markets were faltering last night; China down -0.1%, Hong Kong down -1%, India down -0.9%, Japan down -0.7%, Seoul down -1.4%and Taiwan down -0.1%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from 0% to -0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down 0.4% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE has not set a new high yet for this rally. The rally could falter and resume in a few days. If it does not the mutual funds may start selling. The WSJ had an article today on mutual fund timing entry and exits during this recession.
This Obama malaise market is treacherous for stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now stocks often drop very sharply. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at lease 2% above the last high.
While the DOW is at a 13-month high the broader American NYSE, has not yet reached new highs. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months. The NYSE now has to surpass the previous high by about 2% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we go into cash by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market until we know if this rally still has legs. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under similar conditions during the 1970s. Either the sidelines or active trading appear to be the equities market options at this time.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Administration and MSNBC/Pravda's loony leftists already excuse the hateful behavior of the murderer at Ft. Hood by fabricating a new stress reaction
Administration and MSNBC/Pravda's loony leftists have already excused Nidal Malik Hasan's murderous rampage at Ft. Hood by inventing a new stress reaction that one can develop from seeing other people's stress reactions. The lunatics say we must all continue to pretend these Ft Hood killings and the killings of Hindus, Buddhists, atheists, Christians and Jews around the world have nothing to do with the Moslem's institutionalized religions belief in hatred for and Jihad's against all infidels (i.e. all non Moslems).
The D.C. sniper mastermind John Allen Muhammad was executed last evening for the attacks that terrorized the Washington DC a few years ago.
Market Outlook
The Congress took two weeks beyond the expiration of the last unemployment extension to once again extend the unemployment compensation period. That means that many of the unemployed were no longer listed as unemployed when they exceeded the first extension. That could make the unemployment statistics optimistic and then pessimistic again as the unemployed are de-listed and then re-listed. Therefore if the figures become very good in the next week we would accelerate getting out of the market and into cash because they will only get much worse again.
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
FED released Nov 9 2009 quarterly loan officer survey results on Bank Lending Practices
The banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. Banks indicated that they expected to tighten many of the terms and conditions of credit card loans as a result of the recent legislation, with the notable exception of penalty fees and the length of the grace period for payments. The tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low. There were many planned Federal Reserve officials' speeches yesterday that have been interpreted positively as a green light to buying up dollar-denominated assets while selling the greenback.
Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly small business optimism index grew for the third straight month, rising 0.3 points to 89.1 in October.
The Federal Reserve faces the biggest blows to its authority and independence in five decades under legislation championed by its lead overseer in the U.S. Senate, Dodd of CT.
Today, Nov 11is Veterans Day and
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 11
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established at least 2 % higher than the last one we expect a few months of declines will follow. The new high must be higher because transaction volume is lower on advances than on declines indicating a weakness in this rally. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates as this market rallies. We surmise the time has come to lighten up on equities by taking profits and heading towards the sidelines. But we wait for investments to approach their resistance levels first.
Asian markets were higher last night; China down -0.1%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 2.5%, Japan flat at 0%, Seoul up 0.8%and Taiwan up 1%.
Two manufacturing reports out of Japan and China gave European markets and U.S. futures markets a lift this morning even though markets in China and Japan showed little enthusiasm. European markets are up with the average in a range from 1.2% to 1.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,200 again. However traders make the advance tenuous.
This new market is treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stocks often drop very sharply if they do not predict improve earnings. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within a week or two when this rally should be topping out.
While the DOW is at a 13-month high but the broader American NYSE, S&P, and the NASDAQ have not yet reached their highs and are going sideways. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 2% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under similar conditions during the 1970s. Either the sidelines or active trading appear to be the equities market options at this time. Many have also begun trading highly risky options.
The D.C. sniper mastermind John Allen Muhammad was executed last evening for the attacks that terrorized the Washington DC a few years ago.
Market Outlook
The Congress took two weeks beyond the expiration of the last unemployment extension to once again extend the unemployment compensation period. That means that many of the unemployed were no longer listed as unemployed when they exceeded the first extension. That could make the unemployment statistics optimistic and then pessimistic again as the unemployed are de-listed and then re-listed. Therefore if the figures become very good in the next week we would accelerate getting out of the market and into cash because they will only get much worse again.
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
FED released Nov 9 2009 quarterly loan officer survey results on Bank Lending Practices
The banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. Banks indicated that they expected to tighten many of the terms and conditions of credit card loans as a result of the recent legislation, with the notable exception of penalty fees and the length of the grace period for payments. The tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low. There were many planned Federal Reserve officials' speeches yesterday that have been interpreted positively as a green light to buying up dollar-denominated assets while selling the greenback.
Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly small business optimism index grew for the third straight month, rising 0.3 points to 89.1 in October.
The Federal Reserve faces the biggest blows to its authority and independence in five decades under legislation championed by its lead overseer in the U.S. Senate, Dodd of CT.
Today, Nov 11is Veterans Day and
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 11
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established at least 2 % higher than the last one we expect a few months of declines will follow. The new high must be higher because transaction volume is lower on advances than on declines indicating a weakness in this rally. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates as this market rallies. We surmise the time has come to lighten up on equities by taking profits and heading towards the sidelines. But we wait for investments to approach their resistance levels first.
Asian markets were higher last night; China down -0.1%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 2.5%, Japan flat at 0%, Seoul up 0.8%and Taiwan up 1%.
Two manufacturing reports out of Japan and China gave European markets and U.S. futures markets a lift this morning even though markets in China and Japan showed little enthusiasm. European markets are up with the average in a range from 1.2% to 1.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,200 again. However traders make the advance tenuous.
This new market is treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stocks often drop very sharply if they do not predict improve earnings. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within a week or two when this rally should be topping out.
While the DOW is at a 13-month high but the broader American NYSE, S&P, and the NASDAQ have not yet reached their highs and are going sideways. Our indicators say we are likely near the top of the USA market for 2009 and perhaps the next six months. That is to say that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 2% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs. The markets in China have stalled and have been moving sideways since August. A sideways volatile USA market also occurred under similar conditions during the 1970s. Either the sidelines or active trading appear to be the equities market options at this time. Many have also begun trading highly risky options.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Jack Welch blasts Obama and Barney on climate and economic policies.
Jack Welch, the former CEO of General Electric, blasted the Obama administration and Congressman Barney Frank telling a banking audience that the Democrats’ actions to restructure the entire economy are “insane.”
He said, “I hope that the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s race will put some realism into this administration,” Welch told an enthusiastic crowd at the Bank Administration Institute convention at Boston’s Convention and Exhibition Center. “I hope it will cause them to pause and not just jump into anything they encounter.”
Welch was referring to the races on Tuesday where two incumbent Democrats thrown out of office, a sign that Americans are fed up with President Barack Obama’s socialist policies.
“I desperately want more thought so we don’t throw out some of the great things we have in this country,” Welch said to more than 1,000 bankers. “Right now, Barney Frank has the floor. He can send us down paths that might be bad for us. That’s frightening. I hope the elections in those two states will slow the speed at which we are attacking climate change, financial regulations and health care. We can’t just pile up deficits and restructure the entire economy in 12-18 months. It’s not doable. It’s insane.”
Market Outlook
The Congress took two weeks beyond the expiration of the last unemployment extension to once again extend the unemployment compensation period. That means that many of the unemployed were no longer listed as unemployed when they exceeded the first extension. That could make the unemployment statistics optimistic and then pessimistic again as the unemployed are de-listed and then re-listed. Therefore if the figures become very good in the next week we would accelerate getting out of the market and into cash because they will only get worse again.
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
FED released Nov 9 2009 quarterly loan officer survey results on Bank Lending Practices
The survey also included three sets of special questions: The first asked banks about the reasons for the decline in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans over the first eight months of 2009, the second asked banks about the status of commercial real estate (CRE) loans on their books that were scheduled to mature by September of this year, and the third asked banks about potential changes in credit card lending due to implementation of the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (Credit CARD) Act.
The banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. In response to a special question on the sources of the decline in C&I lending this year, the two sources domestic banks cited most often as being "very" important were decreased originations of term loans and decreased draws on revolving credit lines. In response to a second special question, banks indicated that, of the CRE loans on their books that were scheduled to mature by September of this year, more loans had been extended than refinanced. In response to special questions concerning the Credit CARD legislation passed in May 2009, a majority of banks reported that they had yet to fully comply with the new law. Banks indicated that they expected to tighten many of the terms and conditions of credit card loans as a result of the legislation, with the notable exception of penalty fees and the length of the grace period for payments. These tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 10
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established at least 1.9 % higher than the last one we expect a few months of declines will follow. The new high must be higher because transaction volume is lower than normal indicating a weakness in this rally. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates as this market rallies.
Asian markets were slightly higher last night; China up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India down -0.4%, Japan up 0.6%, Seoul up 0.4%and Taiwan up 0.8%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from 0.2% to -0.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,200 again. The U.S. stock-index futures decline indicates the market six-day run may be broken today just when all the GE/MSNBC/Pravda/socialist bears turned bullish again last night.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stocks could drop very sharply if they do not improve earnings. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1.8% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
He said, “I hope that the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s race will put some realism into this administration,” Welch told an enthusiastic crowd at the Bank Administration Institute convention at Boston’s Convention and Exhibition Center. “I hope it will cause them to pause and not just jump into anything they encounter.”
Welch was referring to the races on Tuesday where two incumbent Democrats thrown out of office, a sign that Americans are fed up with President Barack Obama’s socialist policies.
“I desperately want more thought so we don’t throw out some of the great things we have in this country,” Welch said to more than 1,000 bankers. “Right now, Barney Frank has the floor. He can send us down paths that might be bad for us. That’s frightening. I hope the elections in those two states will slow the speed at which we are attacking climate change, financial regulations and health care. We can’t just pile up deficits and restructure the entire economy in 12-18 months. It’s not doable. It’s insane.”
Market Outlook
The Congress took two weeks beyond the expiration of the last unemployment extension to once again extend the unemployment compensation period. That means that many of the unemployed were no longer listed as unemployed when they exceeded the first extension. That could make the unemployment statistics optimistic and then pessimistic again as the unemployed are de-listed and then re-listed. Therefore if the figures become very good in the next week we would accelerate getting out of the market and into cash because they will only get worse again.
This week
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
FED released Nov 9 2009 quarterly loan officer survey results on Bank Lending Practices
The survey also included three sets of special questions: The first asked banks about the reasons for the decline in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans over the first eight months of 2009, the second asked banks about the status of commercial real estate (CRE) loans on their books that were scheduled to mature by September of this year, and the third asked banks about potential changes in credit card lending due to implementation of the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure (Credit CARD) Act.
The banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. In response to a special question on the sources of the decline in C&I lending this year, the two sources domestic banks cited most often as being "very" important were decreased originations of term loans and decreased draws on revolving credit lines. In response to a second special question, banks indicated that, of the CRE loans on their books that were scheduled to mature by September of this year, more loans had been extended than refinanced. In response to special questions concerning the Credit CARD legislation passed in May 2009, a majority of banks reported that they had yet to fully comply with the new law. Banks indicated that they expected to tighten many of the terms and conditions of credit card loans as a result of the legislation, with the notable exception of penalty fees and the length of the grace period for payments. These tighter bank lending standards reinforce the FED's decision to keep rates low.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 10
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established at least 1.9 % higher than the last one we expect a few months of declines will follow. The new high must be higher because transaction volume is lower than normal indicating a weakness in this rally. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates as this market rallies.
Asian markets were slightly higher last night; China up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India down -0.4%, Japan up 0.6%, Seoul up 0.4%and Taiwan up 0.8%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from 0.2% to -0.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,200 again. The U.S. stock-index futures decline indicates the market six-day run may be broken today just when all the GE/MSNBC/Pravda/socialist bears turned bullish again last night.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stocks could drop very sharply if they do not improve earnings. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1.8% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Investment risks will likely rise higher this month.
Market Outlook
Longer term:
Cash is now slowly draining out of the market even as it continues to rise. It appears to be in a quarterly topping phase yet the uncertainty of the Xmas season should protect the market until investors decide at the end of December if consumers are finally re-engaging and becoming more optimistic. If consumers are re-engaging even with the expected high unemployment figures, then the market consolidation could end early in January and the cyclical bull market will likely resume. If sales remain low while unemployment levels are peaking, then we expect a sharp selloff in early January and sideways movement for six to nine months before the cyclical bull market resumes.
Shorter term:
Stronger stocks should rally over the next few weeks and stocks with poor earnings will no longer be good even for speculation but will become poison. Many of Jim Cramer's recommended wireless revolution stocks and speculative pharma and health care stocks will likely tank just as the solar energy stocks tanked this past month. Strength is in, and weakness and doubt are out. We expect to be taking profits and put cash on the sidelines for at least a month. Even if the socialists pass nationalized health care this year we expect the socialists to be thrown out of office before the plan goes into effect.
Today,
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
This week,
Monday, Nov 9
FED releases quarterly loan officer survey results.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 9
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established that is at least 1% higher than the last one, then we expect a few months of declines will follow. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates and cash as the market rallies.
Asian markets were higher last night; China up 0.4%, Hong Kong up 1.7%,
India up 2.1%, Japan up 0.2%, Seoul up 0.3%and Taiwan up 1%.
European markets are up sharply with the average in a range from 1.6% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again. The U.S. stock-index futures advance indicates the market may rise for a sixth day.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stock could drop very sharply if they do not improve. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
Longer term:
Cash is now slowly draining out of the market even as it continues to rise. It appears to be in a quarterly topping phase yet the uncertainty of the Xmas season should protect the market until investors decide at the end of December if consumers are finally re-engaging and becoming more optimistic. If consumers are re-engaging even with the expected high unemployment figures, then the market consolidation could end early in January and the cyclical bull market will likely resume. If sales remain low while unemployment levels are peaking, then we expect a sharp selloff in early January and sideways movement for six to nine months before the cyclical bull market resumes.
Shorter term:
Stronger stocks should rally over the next few weeks and stocks with poor earnings will no longer be good even for speculation but will become poison. Many of Jim Cramer's recommended wireless revolution stocks and speculative pharma and health care stocks will likely tank just as the solar energy stocks tanked this past month. Strength is in, and weakness and doubt are out. We expect to be taking profits and put cash on the sidelines for at least a month. Even if the socialists pass nationalized health care this year we expect the socialists to be thrown out of office before the plan goes into effect.
Today,
The Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus efforts and metals prices rallied.
This week,
Monday, Nov 9
FED releases quarterly loan officer survey results.
Tuesday, Nov 10
October small business optimism index
Wednesday, Nov 11
Veterans Day
Thursday, Nov 12:
Unemployment Claims for last week
FED reveals monthly budget deficit
Friday, Nov. 13:
U.S. Trade Gap, import prices expected to rise.
Consumer Sentiment expected to improve
Market forces November 9
The market rally is under way but if a new high is not established that is at least 1% higher than the last one, then we expect a few months of declines will follow. We are prepared to diversify out of stocks or into fixed rates and cash as the market rallies.
Asian markets were higher last night; China up 0.4%, Hong Kong up 1.7%,
India up 2.1%, Japan up 0.2%, Seoul up 0.3%and Taiwan up 1%.
European markets are up sharply with the average in a range from 1.6% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.2% today at 8:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again. The U.S. stock-index futures advance indicates the market may rise for a sixth day.
This new market will be treacherous for weak stocks that had advanced sharply with previous optimism. Now those weak stock could drop very sharply if they do not improve. It is important to get out of weak stocks quickly and possibly all stocks within two weeks when this rally should be topping out.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 1% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs.
Friday, November 6, 2009
US stocks rise and put the DOW near the high point for 2009. Government socialists have lost their timing.
Some policy makers are concerned that the ECB’s emergency lending to banks could fuel inflation once the economic recovery gathers steam. Treasuries were mixed after the FOMC's decision Wednesday to leave rates unchanged at 0%-0.25% and maintain stimulus plans. The U.K. boosted its economic stimulus, while the European Central bank left rates unchanged.
The dollar index was lower. Gold futures were higher, pushing toward $1,100 an ounce. Crude oil futures were lower. Central banks around the world are starting to wind down some of the measures introduced to stave off a second Great Depression. The Bank of England said today it will slow the pace of bond purchases and the Federal Reserve yesterday outlined the conditions needed for it to raise interest rates. The phasing out of long-term loans is likely to be the first step in the ECB’s exit strategy by winding down liquidity operations. Some policy makers have expressed concern that the economy remains fragile and may want more evidence of a recovery.
This week,
U.S. stocks were higher Thursday following reports that weekly initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000 for the week ended Oct. 31, while continuing claims fell 68,000 to 5,749,000; and that third-quarter nonfarm productivity soared by a more than expected 9.5%. We are cautious though because the unemployment compensation bill has not passed and many unemployed have fallen off the records over the last two weeks. That makes the continuing claims deceptive and if the bill passes we will see a spike upward with the unemployed from two skipped weeks coming back on board. The socialist politicians have lost their timing touch. Their little unemployment deception effort was two days late and therefore two late to help their disaster in the elections this week. The figures should spike in two weeks or approximately one week and two days after they pass the Unemployment Compensation Extension bill.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Major retailers reported same-store sales for October benefited from the recovering economy.
Worker productivity improved again.
Today Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 6
The market rally started but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 0.6%, Japan up 0.7%, Seoul up 1.3%and Taiwan up 0.6%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% again today at 7:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 0.5% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs. The buying window has shut again for us but if a substantial new high is made and the next decline is less than 5% we will go long again. If however the next low show continued cash flow erosion we may stay in cash.
The dollar index was lower. Gold futures were higher, pushing toward $1,100 an ounce. Crude oil futures were lower. Central banks around the world are starting to wind down some of the measures introduced to stave off a second Great Depression. The Bank of England said today it will slow the pace of bond purchases and the Federal Reserve yesterday outlined the conditions needed for it to raise interest rates. The phasing out of long-term loans is likely to be the first step in the ECB’s exit strategy by winding down liquidity operations. Some policy makers have expressed concern that the economy remains fragile and may want more evidence of a recovery.
This week,
U.S. stocks were higher Thursday following reports that weekly initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000 for the week ended Oct. 31, while continuing claims fell 68,000 to 5,749,000; and that third-quarter nonfarm productivity soared by a more than expected 9.5%. We are cautious though because the unemployment compensation bill has not passed and many unemployed have fallen off the records over the last two weeks. That makes the continuing claims deceptive and if the bill passes we will see a spike upward with the unemployed from two skipped weeks coming back on board. The socialist politicians have lost their timing touch. Their little unemployment deception effort was two days late and therefore two late to help their disaster in the elections this week. The figures should spike in two weeks or approximately one week and two days after they pass the Unemployment Compensation Extension bill.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Major retailers reported same-store sales for October benefited from the recovering economy.
Worker productivity improved again.
Today Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 6
The market rally started but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.3%, Hong Kong up 1.6%, India up 0.6%, Japan up 0.7%, Seoul up 1.3%and Taiwan up 0.6%.
European markets are flat with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.2% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% again today at 7:00 AM EST with the DOW above 10,000 again.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Our indicators say we are near the top of the market for perhaps the next six months. That is to say we expect that although the averages may not show it, our cash flow index indicates that cash has been leaving the market for almost two months and that puts a spin on things. For instance, even if we slightly exceed the markets previous high of the last month it will still be a head and shoulders sell formation for us. The market now has to surpass the previous high by about 0.5% (at this time and still increasing) to maintain a bull market. For that reason we will be prepared to go into cash gradually now by just taking profits and not re-investing in the market over the next three weeks and by then we will know if this rally still has legs. The buying window has shut again for us but if a substantial new high is made and the next decline is less than 5% we will go long again. If however the next low show continued cash flow erosion we may stay in cash.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) plans a massive buy back of its stock now at a bargain price.
The maker of the popular BlackBerry email device, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM), will spend up to $1.2 billion to buy back about 21 million of its shares, or 3.6% of its total shares outstanding. The buyback starts Nov. 9 because the stock is so undervalued that it is now considered the best investment they can make. Currently RIMM has the greatest market share in hand held devices but Google and Verizon have recently entered the market along with Apple.
Federal Reserve officials signaled a return to economic growth alone does not warrant higher interest rates. An increase instead depends on when the labor market and inflation pick up. For the week the news has been quite good but the bears control as the market bottom was psychologically tested but has held each day.
The democrat-socialist party never was much for reality and denies that Americans are rejecting them and are beginning to think it is time to throw them all out. The wreckage they are trying to foist on health care does not take effect until 2013 so there is time to throw the socialists out and scrap their plan for socialized American health care. The administration does not speak truth-to-power but rather they speak lies-to-corruption. The come from Chicago the most corrupt city in America and just were thrown out of the governor's office in New Jersey the second most corrupt state. Corrupt unions drain the coffers in many states and large cutbacks of state workers are needed before the economy will prosper again.
This week,
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Today Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 5
Rimm is buying back its own stock showing confidence that it has a good growth plan and believes RIMM to be the best investment they can make at this time.
We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.9%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India up 1%, Japan down -1.3%, and Taiwan down -0.7%.
European markets are down slightly with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Federal Reserve officials signaled a return to economic growth alone does not warrant higher interest rates. An increase instead depends on when the labor market and inflation pick up. For the week the news has been quite good but the bears control as the market bottom was psychologically tested but has held each day.
The democrat-socialist party never was much for reality and denies that Americans are rejecting them and are beginning to think it is time to throw them all out. The wreckage they are trying to foist on health care does not take effect until 2013 so there is time to throw the socialists out and scrap their plan for socialized American health care. The administration does not speak truth-to-power but rather they speak lies-to-corruption. The come from Chicago the most corrupt city in America and just were thrown out of the governor's office in New Jersey the second most corrupt state. Corrupt unions drain the coffers in many states and large cutbacks of state workers are needed before the economy will prosper again.
This week,
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Ford reported a $billion profit last quarter.
Chrysler reported they stopped hemorrhaging this last quarter.
The FOMC did not raise interest rates at this time. Bank of England followed suit over night easing credit.
Today Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 5
Rimm is buying back its own stock showing confidence that it has a good growth plan and believes RIMM to be the best investment they can make at this time.
We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines will follow. We would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.9%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India up 1%, Japan down -1.3%, and Taiwan down -0.7%.
European markets are down slightly with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.1% today at 8:00 AM EST as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
The Obama socialists were thrown out in Virginia and New Jersey. This is good news for American liberty and for the world's economy.
For a week the news has been quite good but the bears held control as the market bottom was psychologically tested but has held.
The democrat-socialist party was unceremoniously thrown out of office in Virginia and New Jersey. Mayor Bloomberg won again in NYC. In upstate NY the republican socialist candidate abdicated her party and threw her support to the democrat socialist who then just managed to defeat a camera shy conservative new-by.
Ford showed American free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter while the nationalized GM and Chrysler are rotting on the vine. GM could not even sell its loser, Opel model.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
Warren Buffett just bought a large railroad for $23 Billion indicating his confidence in the American economy.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Hartford Financial Services Group reported quarter losses declined 90% showing insurance companies are recovering too. Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Today Nov 4
Officials today conclude their meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Cisco is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services. Allstate's report today is expected to swing to a profit. Prudential Financial results are expected to increase from a year earlier.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 4
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on the next advance and purchases should have been made on this bottom. This present bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines. In fact we would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, India up 3.3% again, Japan up -0.4%again, Taiwan up 2%, and Seoul up 1.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.7% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps a profit taking opportunity as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
The democrat-socialist party was unceremoniously thrown out of office in Virginia and New Jersey. Mayor Bloomberg won again in NYC. In upstate NY the republican socialist candidate abdicated her party and threw her support to the democrat socialist who then just managed to defeat a camera shy conservative new-by.
Ford showed American free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter while the nationalized GM and Chrysler are rotting on the vine. GM could not even sell its loser, Opel model.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity 55.7% up from 52.6% last month.
Warren Buffett just bought a large railroad for $23 Billion indicating his confidence in the American economy.
September factory orders up.
Kraft posted wider profit margins exceeding forecasts.
Time Warner profits exceeded forecast and gave an optimistic guidance.
Hartford Financial Services Group reported quarter losses declined 90% showing insurance companies are recovering too. Health insurer Humana reported higher profits and optimistic guidance.
Today Nov 4
Officials today conclude their meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Cisco is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services. Allstate's report today is expected to swing to a profit. Prudential Financial results are expected to increase from a year earlier.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Health insurers Cigna Corp. will report.
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
Market forces November 4
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on the next advance and purchases should have been made on this bottom. This present bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines. In fact we would be prepared to diversify more as the market rallies.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, India up 3.3% again, Japan up -0.4%again, Taiwan up 2%, and Seoul up 1.9%.
European markets are up with the average in a range from 0.7% to 1.8% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps a profit taking opportunity as the next monthly rally starts.
At the start of a rally, often buying in some stocks will vastly exceed selling resulting in a price spike. If you are lucky to have one of those spiking stocks you need to take advantage of it on the day it happens. By the next day the opportunity is lost.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
EU interferes with English banking causing stock prices to fall.
The EU wants two large English banks to sell off branches to shrink them because they have become too large to allow to fail. The English are up in arms because the socialists were planning to nationalize them to get their bailout money back. The early EU stock market turmoil caused a late Asian market selloff with the exception of China which is poised now to possibly break out and hit a new high.
The European sell-off today also caused US futures to drop. Usually it is the other way around.
Yesterday's news was good but profit taking reduced the market gains.
Ford showed free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity Monday. — PMI at 55.7% up from 52.6% last month. It shows that manufacturing continues to expand.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_ism.htm
Today Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Hartford Financial Services Group reports
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 3
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 1.2%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -3.1% again, Japan down -2.3%again, and Seoul down -0.6%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -1.7% to -2.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.8% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the next monthly rally starts.
The European sell-off today also caused US futures to drop. Usually it is the other way around.
Yesterday's news was good but profit taking reduced the market gains.
Ford showed free enterprise could still turn a profit… almost $1 billion in fact last quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on manufacturing activity Monday. — PMI at 55.7% up from 52.6% last month. It shows that manufacturing continues to expand.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_ism.htm
Today Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Hartford Financial Services Group reports
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 3
We expect the market to bounce soon. Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate earlier this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 1.2%, Hong Kong down -1.8%, India down -3.1% again, Japan down -2.3%again, and Seoul down -0.6%.
European markets are down with the average in a range from -1.7% to -2.1% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are down -0.8% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the next monthly rally starts.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Whiplash results for investors as record numbers of PUTs were bought last month by wanna-be stock manipulators.
Why doesn't the FED prosecute these stock market manipulators causing the whiplash in stock prices that gives them obscene profits while damaging world markets and confidence in free market economies? China does not allow this type of manipulation and had no sell-off.
The use of options as insurance is a way to guarantee that your hedge fund will under-perform. But buying millions of puts in the last month to dramatically profit from increasing volatility and pessimism is what we seem to be seeing now. Remember the surge in oil prices in 2008 could not be explained by demand and was blamed on buyers of oil futures. Options have a similar effect on stocks as futures have on commodities. Those who bought PUTs on specific stocks may be the very hedge funds dumping those stocks and willing to lose something to cash in on as the PUTs on their sold stocks skyrocket. Jim Cramer said he saw many sellers of PUTs bankrupted during the DOT-COM collapse. The sharper the decline the more obscene this type of stock manipulation becomes. Manipulators of commodity futures prices contributed to the massive equivalent energy tax the high oil cost levied on the world and probably contributed to the collapse of world economies in 2008.
Why doesn't the FED prosecute these stock market manipulators causing the whiplash in stock prices that gives them obscene profits while damaging world markets and confidence in the free market system? Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
New reports came out the morning of Oct. 30 and the DOW fell almost 250 points and 2% for the month. The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer recovered from the September stumble. But Consumer income & spending was down and Consumer Sentiment declined.
Then Ford Motor Co. unions have rejected contract concessions the automaker said it needed to remain competitive with its U.S. rivals. And all week Wall Street waited for CIT Group Inc., a 101-year-old commercial lender, to finally file for bankruptcy underwater by $10 billion. Market manipulators had pumped over 80% of the stocks to new 52 week highs on six months of Pollyanna news and now the manipulators own puts and are trying to depress the stock market as the manipulators succeeded last week.
This week has a very heavy business calendar of the same type of important potential market moving economic reports that have been roiling the market day-to-day in both directions over the last couple of weeks. Wall Street media is likely to describe a stabilizing advertising market after years of declines when they report third-quarter results next week. Viacom reports Tuesday followed a day later by Time Warner that owns the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. Broadcaster CBS Corp. reports Thursday.
Three major hedge-fund managers will post third-quarter results as their funds capture their high-water marks. Och-Ziff Capital Management LLC reports Tuesday, is likely to see improvement in all of its funds. Fortress Investment Group and Blackstone Group are expected to swing to the black when they report Friday.
Monday Nov 2
Economic reports out Monday are expected to show a small rise in pending home sales and a small decline in construction spending in September. The Institute for Supply Management reports on manufacturing activity Monday. The Institute for Supply Management reports on the service sector Wednesday.
Tuesday Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 2
Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 2.7%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India down -1% again, Japan down -2.3%, and Seoul down -1.4%. China does not allow manipulation of stock prices with heavy options trading. Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
European markets are up slightly with the average in a range from 0% to 0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the market makes a new high. That depends on whether most the PUT buyers cashed in last Friday.
Some companies apparently are big enough to manipulate the market with options now. This could be as dangerous to the US economy as the mortgage derivative market was. Futures and Options are derivatives of their respective markets and if a company buys enough stock on dips they drive the price higher and causing volatility on the down side to subside. Then they can buy out-of-the-money PUTs at lower stock price levels and then quickly dump their stock and subsequently profit enormously by cashing in their skyrocketing PUTs.
The use of options as insurance is a way to guarantee that your hedge fund will under-perform. But buying millions of puts in the last month to dramatically profit from increasing volatility and pessimism is what we seem to be seeing now. Remember the surge in oil prices in 2008 could not be explained by demand and was blamed on buyers of oil futures. Options have a similar effect on stocks as futures have on commodities. Those who bought PUTs on specific stocks may be the very hedge funds dumping those stocks and willing to lose something to cash in on as the PUTs on their sold stocks skyrocket. Jim Cramer said he saw many sellers of PUTs bankrupted during the DOT-COM collapse. The sharper the decline the more obscene this type of stock manipulation becomes. Manipulators of commodity futures prices contributed to the massive equivalent energy tax the high oil cost levied on the world and probably contributed to the collapse of world economies in 2008.
Why doesn't the FED prosecute these stock market manipulators causing the whiplash in stock prices that gives them obscene profits while damaging world markets and confidence in the free market system? Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
New reports came out the morning of Oct. 30 and the DOW fell almost 250 points and 2% for the month. The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer recovered from the September stumble. But Consumer income & spending was down and Consumer Sentiment declined.
Then Ford Motor Co. unions have rejected contract concessions the automaker said it needed to remain competitive with its U.S. rivals. And all week Wall Street waited for CIT Group Inc., a 101-year-old commercial lender, to finally file for bankruptcy underwater by $10 billion. Market manipulators had pumped over 80% of the stocks to new 52 week highs on six months of Pollyanna news and now the manipulators own puts and are trying to depress the stock market as the manipulators succeeded last week.
This week has a very heavy business calendar of the same type of important potential market moving economic reports that have been roiling the market day-to-day in both directions over the last couple of weeks. Wall Street media is likely to describe a stabilizing advertising market after years of declines when they report third-quarter results next week. Viacom reports Tuesday followed a day later by Time Warner that owns the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. Broadcaster CBS Corp. reports Thursday.
Three major hedge-fund managers will post third-quarter results as their funds capture their high-water marks. Och-Ziff Capital Management LLC reports Tuesday, is likely to see improvement in all of its funds. Fortress Investment Group and Blackstone Group are expected to swing to the black when they report Friday.
Monday Nov 2
Economic reports out Monday are expected to show a small rise in pending home sales and a small decline in construction spending in September. The Institute for Supply Management reports on manufacturing activity Monday. The Institute for Supply Management reports on the service sector Wednesday.
Tuesday Nov. 3
The government will release data on September factory orders in the morning.
Officials gather for the meeting of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest-rate policy, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The FOMC is not expected to move interest rates at this time.
Kraft is expected to post wider profit margins and possibly even exceed forecasts. The food company's earnings will be closely watched since its bid for Cadbury is in part in stock and it needs Cadbury shareholders to value its shares.
Wednesday Nov 4
Cisco reports Wednesday and is expected to post lower profit and sales but also affirm the anticipated comeback in corporate demand for high-tech products and services.
Jobs report AM
ISM index AM
FOMC PM
Thursday Nov 5 AM
Major retailers who will report same-store sales for October may benefit from the recovering economy as well as from cool weather that sparks sales of fall and winter clothing.
Unemployment claims AM
The government will release data on third-quarter productivity AM
Friday, Nov 6 AM
Investors will wait anxiously all week for a labor report to be released 8:30am Friday that will likely show U.S. unemployment topped 10% during October.
More insurers should report similar results to last week's reports saying business and rallying stock markets put an end to big investment losses. Hartford Financial Services Group reports Tuesday and Allstate which reports Wednesday are expected to swing to a profit, while Prudential Financial results Wednesday are expected to increase from a year earlier. Health insurers Humana and Cigna Corp. will report Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Market forces November 2
Profit taking continues to be advisable on advances and purchases should be made on declines each time we bottom. This last bottom was a little deeper and we appear to be entering a slower growth phase. The market appreciation rate this year could not be sustained. The new rate possibly will allow the bull market to last a little longer. We expect the market to rally again soon but if a new high is not established we expect a few months of declines.
Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 2.7%, Hong Kong down -0.6%, India down -1% again, Japan down -2.3%, and Seoul down -1.4%. China does not allow manipulation of stock prices with heavy options trading. Options and futures were invented to stabilize prices not to manipulate and destabilize them for obscene profits and the destabilization of the market economies.
European markets are up slightly with the average in a range from 0% to 0.3% this morning about half way through their day.
US pre-market futures are up 0.6% today at 7:00 AM EST with perhaps another buying opportunity before the market makes a new high. That depends on whether most the PUT buyers cashed in last Friday.
Some companies apparently are big enough to manipulate the market with options now. This could be as dangerous to the US economy as the mortgage derivative market was. Futures and Options are derivatives of their respective markets and if a company buys enough stock on dips they drive the price higher and causing volatility on the down side to subside. Then they can buy out-of-the-money PUTs at lower stock price levels and then quickly dump their stock and subsequently profit enormously by cashing in their skyrocketing PUTs.
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