Brazils 3Q GDP surprises with 9 percent growth and beats USA 3% growth.

Market Outlook
Brazil, China, and India now lead the world in growth but also in the greatest disparity between the rich and poor. Disparity there as well as in the USA is not due to unequal opportunity but because many people chose to keep their old ways and not even learn to speak correctly.

It sounds as though China may allow their currency to appreciate and help equalize the trade deficit with America and that would be a threat to China's exports and recovery and would begin the inflation of the prices of USA imports from China.

This week
This is an important week. We expected retail sales rebounded in October, production to climb and more work on more houses.

Oct Retail Sales were a 1.4%.
NY Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in November, but at a somewhat slower pace than in October.
Bernanke spoke in NYC and would like to avoid the 1994-type bond market carnage of higher interest rates. It was interpreted positive.
September Business Inventories Fell 0.4%, another positive factor for increasing production
Home Depot sales were better than predicted
The USA markets continued to rally.

Tuesday, Nov 17:
Industrial Production & capacity
Producer Price Index
Sept Trade balance
Richmond Fed

Wednesday, Nov 18:
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts

Thursday, Nov 19:
Unemployment Claims
Leading Indicators


Market forces November 17
While the USA stock markets have advanced China's stock market has been sputtering and has not exceeded July-August levels. We must use the broader market of the NYSE for the analysis of the same risk for American Markets. While the NYSE has hit a new high it has suffered until yesterday with low upside volume. We estimate it must still rise another 1.6% from yesterday's high to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining shoulder. If that occurs then we may see a small correction and another new high by the end of the year. Otherwise we would be in cash. We used yesterday to take profits and go 30% into cash already because either way there will likely be a correction in the next few weeks.

Asian markets were mixed last night; China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.1%, India up 0.1%, Japan down 0.6%, Seoul down -0.4%and Taiwan down -0.8%.

European markets are down with the average in a range from -0.3% to -0.5% this morning about half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are down 0.4% today at 8:00 AM EST. The broader NYSE set a new high but until yesterday had little supporting trade volume. It is important to be able to get out of stocks quickly and possibly completely if the NYSE does not set a new high at least 1.6% above yesterday's high and on above average volume.