http://www.bobbyjindal.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=45&Itemid=65
Recent reports of increased US exports are not born out by the Bulk Trade reports. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Pavlovian conditioning is going on every day now as we near the likely dramatic end of this bull market. Free enterprise has a very natural way of assuring the survival of the fittest and the evolution of more and more intelligent and inventive business practices. Creative destruction is as far as humans have evolved and that was understood even at the time of Karl Marx and his followers who threw their wooden shoes (sabots) into the French knitting machines and invented the form of labor resistance called sabotage.
The stock price swings get bigger so that some unwary get conditioned because we always seem to recover most of the decline each day. Each day the hedge funds let the market creep up and then sell and sweep out most who are waiting to buy, but leave small gains to lure more the next day until the volume is too low. Sometimes when volume is low they stop selling and let the buyers come in so that the market recovers.
This is an important fact. The sign of the end of a bull market is when the volume picks up on declines and drops on advances. The opposite is true at the end of a bear market.
The market mavens may even cover some shorts where the market is very thin to jack the price back up to keep the public complacent. That is part of their art of short selling.
Then suddenly the hedge funds sense investor fear is setting in. That is the time they strike. They dump a load and cover some of it at the end of the day to take a profit because they want the lambs to keep coming and to only capitulate when they have already been skinned. And that could take a 50% to 60% drop in valuation before uninitiated give up completely having lost most of their savings. And the hedge funds then begin to tell their horrible stories and predictions of disaster because that is how they make their fortunes. That is the current state of the law of the stock market jungle. This behavior actually over time evolves a stronger economy and greater prosperity and is an important lesson to learn. To survive we need to educate ourselves and become fit.
For the past six months they had been spreading optimistic misinformation about Apple, HP, JCP, and other stocks and spread nice rumors that the companies would give holders massive dividends or buy back the shares of stock driving up the price. But that is turning negative. HP, JCP and soon uneducated Apple stockowners will likely begin capitulating again. This is the very last stage where stocks are so overpriced that the hedge funds seem to destroy the credibility of one entire market sector after they have sold it and pump up the sector they just bought into. There just is not enough cash available anymore to float all ships. And as the market declines the wealth of shareholders declines and they move to the sidelines. It is the opposite of what we have seen since 2009. The contraction has already hit China and the emerging markets and it exposes the excesses of too much debt, too high spending, quantitative easing, and vastly expanded entitlements for those only taking, incessantly complaining, and contributing nothing to society.
Aug 29 It appears the Obama administration erred again and compared unadjusted GDP this month with adjusted GDP last month. The inflation adjusted quarterly GDP level reported this month remained at a 1.7% annual rate.
How President Obama handles Syria will certainly affect the American safety and the economy. If Ronald Reagan had been President he would not have allowed Americans fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan for a full year much less much more than four years. The American Revolution only lasted from July 4, 1776 to August 19, 1780 when Cornwallis surrendered at Yorktown, VA. President Reagan pulled us out of Lebanon when our marines were bombed at their hotel. He sent F111 bombers into Libya personally attacking Kadaffi sleeping in his tent and scared the shit out of him. Then Kadaffi calmed down and stopped his terrorism. Obama should personally bomb the president of Syria but know full well that President Obama himself will always need personal protection if he saves American lives that way.
The main cause of poverty, any race, ethnic group, religion, or nationality, is the breakdown of the traditional core man-wife family dedicated to their children. Not one black Conservative or black member of the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln was invited to speak at the 50th Anniversary of the march on Washington. That exclusionary attitude (or bigotry) may also be a precursor to, or indicator of the type of mental attitude that prevents people from being personally successful… because most black Conservative and black members of the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln are successful and they are systematically excluded and given no voice. It seems that Martin Luther King was fighting for inclusion of all people not exclusion. It is interesting that the event was funded by the Teacher’s Unions and none of the speakers said anything about the need for charter schools or standardized teaching standards and teacher competency tests all of which the unions oppose. Ignorance, negativism, and bigotry also correlate highly with poverty across all racial, religious, and ethnic groups.
Obama’s IRS continues to harass anti-Communist dissidents by not giving non-profit status to Tea Party non-profit corporations.
Aug 28 Now is the time when taking profits is drawing to a close. Many high fliers are already down 10% from their highs and people may soon start having to take losses. Soon the short sellers will begin again in earnest. Then all the advisors and news media will be fashionably negative and say they warned you. Then the panic begins stock by stock. Then when the rebound a bit you know the short sellers took their first profit and now they have a lot more money so they jump on another stock and drive that down. It takes a while because some stocks are heavily held long by institutions and they hold out longer and don’t decline as much. The stocks bounce each time shorts cover themselves but it is not over until the shorts liquidate and begin to buy the bargains again. A correction can take a month but the end of a long run-up could take over a year to run all the way back down.
Look at what happened after 9-11 and again in Obama’s first term. The bull market highs and bear market lows seem to be range limited and we are at the bull market range limit and seem to be declining. If that continues this decline or the next one could be 50% not 10%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
Did Iraq ship their poison gas to Syria? Is that where the poison gas went that Saddam Hussein produced to kill his minority tribes? If not, who gave Syria that internationally forbidden weapon?
LDK Solar Co., the second-largest maker of solar wafers, declined 11% after announcing that sales fell 51 percent and the company announced it wouldn’t make a payment due on its bond today
.
Based on what people say Warren Buffet has in his portfolio he is up significantly for the last six months but he is down about 4% over the last three months.
If you want to preserve your country and its culture of liberty and the opportunity for honest people to use their full potential… then you may be called a racist in Britain and elsewhere.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/RWcVguB0GaY
Aug 27 Bloomberg warned on Monday that stock valuations last climbed this fast in the final year of the 1990s technology bubble, just before the index began a 49 percent tumble. The rally that started in March 2009 has now outlasted the average gain since 1946. We now have had a run up in prices for a period longer than average. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square announced it sold its entire stake, 39.1 million shares, in J.C. Penney, seeing the broader markets poised for a breakdown of lower resistance levels. They chose the loss of about $470 million now rather risk a potential 15% to 40% decline of the entire market. J.C. Penney shares dropped 5 percent in after-hours trade before paring some losses.
Volume on all the exchanges has been declining sharply as sky high prices are demanded for shares. A PE of 15.7 means you may see 6% per annum appreciation if the stock consistently goes up and the earnings continually grow at 6% per annum. But if the economy is going nowhere for seven years as is the case under Obama, and we are told the true PE is only 15.7 we are obviously being deceived. The reason their logic is wrong when they say the PE has a long way to increase before the bull market is over is because average corporate earnings go negative as well as positive. And when it switches from negative to positive we see the rate of change in earnings accelerating and earnings must overshoot by as much as they undershoot during the contractions. That is why you cannot use projected earnings when there is no economic growth because average earnings cannot grow when there is no economic growth and therefore there is no overshooting of a zero net increase. Therefore we can only see overshoots and undershoots due to manipulation of the balance sheets and with write-offs and preposterous non-recurring exclusions of losses.
Or in the case of China, there is virtually no world bulk trade and that means there has been no real growth of China for more than two years so their 7% growth is entirely inflated money supply and fake sales and export data. And in addition to fake economic reports they produce fake or counterfeit products. This is a socialist fact of life and has been going on for years and is only getting worse.
http://futuremoneytrends.com/blog/?p=5146
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/03/14/the-10-most-counterfeited-products-sold-in-america/
And so the NYSE sits at the highs of 2000 and 2007 because the American economy today at its highest point since Obama took office is no better than it was under Bush or when Obama took office. We are in Obama’s lost decade. In fact personal income has peaked and most middle class Americans are now becoming poorer. Yes the population is growing but the poor are reproducing faster with 70% or more out of wedlock and more likely to drop out of high school than to complete it.
And fewer than 50% of mostly average middle class students who start college complete it.
Remember that if a company pays out all income in dividends then it is not reinvesting in itself. They cannot have their cake and eat it too. The reason stock prices are so high is because the cost of debt was so low that essentially companies have been borrowing against their future to make payouts to shareholders and putting the corporations at default risks if money market rates hit 16% as they did under Jimmy Carter. Because then corporations will go broke just as Detroit and Cyprus did.
Beware of large international banks. Obama is in the process of suing the big banks to break them up.
Aug 26 One technique that technical analysts use to confirm the direction of the trend is to determine whether the MACD indicator is making higher highs or lower lows in conjunction with the price. David Keller said "We saw a bearish divergence between the S&P 500 and the MACD indicator, with higher highs in the S&P and lower peaks in the MACD," observes. Many traders wait for a "trigger," or some sort of confirmation of the divergence. Keller notes that, "S&P's breaking down through recent swing lows, a lower high in price, and the MACD's breaking the zero level all could serve as valid sell triggers." This actually just occurred on both the weekly and daily charts.
David Keller, CMT, president of the Market Technicians Association will be speaking live at the Seattle Traders' Summit on Tuesday.
Goldman Sacks last week erroneously sent thousands of orders for options contracts to exchanges operated by NYSE Euronet, Nasdaq OMX and the CBOE. The faulty orders roiled options markets in the opening 17 minutes of the day's trading and sparked an investigation.
Google unveiled its Chromecast dongle that promises to make streaming Internet video a cinch. And at about $35 it's significantly cheaper than the Apple TV with its AirPlay feature at about $100.
A few years ago Donald Trump tried to start a Donald Trump University but was politically harassed so much but regulators opposed to a university based on free enterprise while he was trying to be certified that he gave up and shut it down. Today, years later, it was announced that Donald Trump is being harassed further. Besides his losses, the elected democrat NY prosecutor is now suing for the amount of money students paid while the school was pursuing certification. This means the taxpayers of New York will have to pay the cost of socialist harassment of one of America’s well known entrepreneurs who is an outspoken critic of the corrupt national political machine. The socialist principles of spying on and the socialist injustice of harassing political dissidents are now out in the open. Now they are using taxpayer money to harass dissidents like Donald Trump who support the principles of American liberty and pursuit of justice with a proposed new university to teach free enterprise principles.
Jim Cramer finally is saying we have to wake up and smell the coffee.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Inflation and higher interest rates started two months ago in Brazil and Indonesia. Inflation in Brazil rose about 1.5% from the lows to 6.5% and in Indonesia it has risen about 4.5% to 9%. The higher rates coincide with the steep declines in their markets.
Bad loans in China are beginning to create a crisis.
Syria’s leaders need to be crushed and tried for the worst example of genocide since Pol Pot of Cambodia.
The Chinese and the Obama administration have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth anywhere in the world. Corporate cannibalism has passed as growth. And temps and part time workers are replacing full time workers.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
Economists are expecting to see the 10-year Treasury yield go over 3 percent before September is over. That in turn would push mortgage rates higher. Interest rates are now rising at a rate of 1% every three months.
Aug 26
Durable Orders Jul -7.3% sharply lower than last month’s 4.2% ----
This means exports of commercial aircraft, trucking, boat and rail equipment is down sharply. That hurts the balance of trade and indicates an international slowdown is gaining momentum again.
Durable Goods -ex transportation Jul -0.6% lower as well from -0.1% --
Aug 27
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jun 12.1% unchanged from 12.2% -
Consumer Confidence Aug 81.5 up slightly 81.0----
It was 60% higher ten years ago.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment
Aug 28
MBA Mortgage Index 08/24 -2.5% down more again -4.6% ---
Pending Home Sales Jul -1.3% down much more again -0.4% ----
Crude Inventories 08/24 2.986M good increase -1.428M
Aug 29
Initial Claims 08/24 331K down slightly from 336K ++
Continuing Claims 08/17 2989K down slightly from 2999K ++
GDP - Second Estimate Q2 2.5% another error or outlier 1.7% -
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q2 0.8% close to the last time’s 0.7%. That wipes out a third of the GDP leaving it at 1.7% (2.5 –0.8). It appears they compared unadjusted GDP this month with adjusted GDP last month.
Aug 30
Personal Income Jul 0.1% declined from 0.3% ---
Personal Spending Jul 0.1% declined from 0.6% ----
PCE Prices - Core Jul 0.1% inflation slowed from 0.2% --
The Markets Aug 30, 2013
The WSJ reported, "Here Comes the Unaffordable Careless Act. Small businesses won't grow, and more employees will work fewer hours. That's just for starters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324009304579040800967897382.html
The WSJ reported Thursday that small business car repair shop owners are more optimistic now. They report that customers are now more receptive to major repairs than in the past. This may not be a good indicator for the American economy as the WSJ writer suggests. The greater repairs may just mean the owners are holding their old cars even longer.
The large jump in GDP estimate looks like a problem with the competency of the government report generators. It appears they compared unadjusted GDP this month with adjusted GDP last month… possibly intentionally because it looks pretty obviously an outlier that should have been caught. We have to see how they make the next report.
It is time to re-think your strategy and to be wary.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/time-to-buy-the-dip-in-stocks-be-wary-cm269925
The lows are being tested and soon we think the selling will cascade as big investors like Bill Ackman first dump their holdings and then when the selling really starts they begin to sell stocks short. The stocks drop like falling knives then bounce when the shorts are covered. But bullish investor wealth declines so fast, the stocks fall again even further and finally the short sellers begin to buy again. Remember that from the day Obama won the nomination in October 2008 until the low point was a drop of more than 50%.
The stock market decline slowly accelerates as short sellers grow profits, and cover, and then short a different stock that has not declined much. During a decline much of the shorting is automated to rotate out of the stocks that meet target declines and into shorting the stocks with a longer way to go. It becomes a frenzy but many stocks will be bargains again when they are 20% to 40% cheaper. The real threat is that Obama’s socialist waste will cause an economic depression. We need to remember that the end product of socialism is that everyone shares poverty and misery. If you do something good like try to start a Trump seminar school to teach people to be entrepreneurs your head sticks out above the crowd and the socialists attack and try to destroy you.
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Massive-wealth-destruction-economy/2013/06/20/id/511043/?promo_code=13E5C-1&utm_source=taboola
The Dow and NYSE hit a peaks shortly after our sell signal. The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. Jimmy Carter had a sideways market movement with his lost decade of in the 1970’s. We are now in Obama’s lost decade.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s peak so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Monday, August 26, 2013
Aug 30 Eric Holder is trying to stop a school vouchers program in Louisiana that helps studious blacks with free vouchers to charter schools. To that, the WSJ reported that as we celebrate the 50th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech this week the irony is tragic. Governor Bobby Jindal said on Wednesday, “Whether due to their incompetence or ideology,” Holder and Obama would hurt minorities if they stop the charter school voucher system for minorities in Louisiana as the teacher’s union demand (apparently in return for their campaign contributions). This is another indication of government corruption as those in power loot America and make themselves and their families millionaires until they get caught like Jackson JR.
Monday, August 19, 2013
Aug 23 It is clear that some group is testing America’s computers for either criminal or terrorist reasons to destabilize American economic systems. A clear and evident attempt of organized criminals or terrorists to destabilize the entire USA of stock market system spoofed the NASDAQ for three hours on Thursday. The crime was apparently isolated to one system inputting data that was so out of bounds that it resembled static but wasn’t static. They had uncanny ability to make changes and anticipate how NASDAQ would respond. This can only be done by criminals systematically testing the NASDAQ system for instabilities and then using that information to attack and overwhelm the NASDAQ system. The criminal market participants should be identified and prosecuted and in the future any high-speed clients abusing the system should automatically be cut out. That would force clients to stay honest to do business rather than lie to regulators and say they were also spoofed. (alert July new home sales plummet 20%)
In other words all clients should have systems that monitor their own system just as NASDAQ does and other major market makers have. It appears that the criminal behavior originated with a single client system and the FBI with the help of the NSA should investigate the owners of that system. One method they used was to make many thousands of buy orders and then cancel them and make sell orders before any orders could be executed. That would appear almost like static to slow systems but could manipulate the NASDAQ, which then could corrupt the other indices.
The private clinic medical system in America is already beginning to evolve. It is the competent private alternative system that private doctors created to compete with slow incompetent socialized medicine. Clinics are private hospitals where the best USA doctors will set up practice. It will not deal with socialized medicine, the costs will be negotiated. They accept good private insurance but will not deal with the socialized system. You will not need insurance because the true cost of medicine before insurance companies and the national regulators runs in the EU at about 25% the cost of socialized medicine. You will be able to use private insurance or pay cash up front and get the lower negotiated rate. Doctors love to help people and they absolutely hate government regulations and harassing bickering which requires a large business office and an attorney to avoid bankruptcy.
Gold jewelry demand in Indonesia is at a four-year high as consumers in Southeast Asia’s biggest buyer join India to China in increasing purchases as their middle class expands. Consumption of necklaces, bracelets and rings will probably climb to 40 metric tons this year, according to the secretary-general of the Indonesian Goldsmiths and Jewelers Association. That’s a 30 percent increase from 2012.
Aug 22 Many short squeeze experts have been squeezed. And many individual investors are out of the market completely because it is so overpriced and based on fraudulent government statistics that would have you believe things are much better now than five years ago. The real threat is that Obama’s socialist waste will cause an economic depression. The WSJ today reported that over 6000 cases of disability fraud involving a few doctors and one federal employee have just been identified on the little island of Puerto Rico alone. Municipal bankruptcies loom large and residents in Detroit wonder how many people does it take each day to feed 50,000 stray dogs. It is hard to believe Detroit’s GM was claimed to be an Obama socialist success when the American automobile industry has been nuked by Obama and the only beneficiaries are the unions and the rich people who make over $100,000 per year and can afford a pricey subsidized Tesla vehicle that runs on toxic batteries that the USA dumps in China for recycling.
Free enterprise with private capital built an American canal and then a rail mass transportation system between cities. Then states created departments of transportation to regulate free enterprise so that every train car needed its own ticket agent/conductor and union featherbedding began to destroy mass transit profitability. So the railroad unions demanded socialistic transportation subsidies. Then Detroit got its automobile lobby going to push for socialist subsidized highways to handle more cars. So a socialist subsidized highway lobby took control of American transportation and soon the dream was for every American to have a private home in the country with a dog and a few chickens to keep the bugs down. Socialists lobbying for unions and regulation killed both rail mass transit and affordable city housing. Now free enterprise is back rebuilding the cities.
But modern socialist dream is where you don’t burn hydrocarbons in your car to generate mechanical motion. Instead you buy a highly subsidized car and make someone else burn the hydrocarbons in a new power plant in someone else’s back yard to create electricity, transform the electricity to high voltage, transmit the electricity on high voltage lines for hundreds of miles, transform the electricity back to low voltage, and finally charge up your newly designed car battery that is guaranteed for three years but is lucky to last two years. Then dump your dead battery in China.
It’s a wonderful life to have a socialist job where you vote for the socialist candidate who is corrupt and appoints your union arbitrator so you can retire from your state job after 10 years at 90% of salary and take another corrupt socialist state job. There are people who not only get multiple job pensions but also multiple social security pensions such as German, Swiss, and US social security and the corporate pensions from where they worked in each country. Another gets French, British, and Irish SS benefits plus three corporate pensions. This is a growing problem in the USA but a staggering expense for the even more corrupt and socialistic EU where it only takes 10 years to get social security.
Aug 21 The world economies loom on a precipice caused by legalized socialist looting. President Obama is not the only person that has problems understanding free enterprise. Socialists in general are socialists because they have no understanding of business, economics, or how to live within their means. They only know how to use governments to loot their country and others. And they work together under non-aggression treaties to squeeze out the free world’s economic engines of prosperity that still have leaders who do have understandings of business and economics. They end up like Stalin and Hitler did and divide the world up to loot all the non-socialist states first. Finally they try to loot each other as Hitler and Stalin did. President Roosevelt was enamored with the military success of the socialists and was sympathetic to the aims of socialism. At Yalta, President Roosevelt honored the Hitler-Stalin non-aggression pact and Roosevelt gave Stalin everything Hitler had promised Stalin in their secret pact’s "Secret Protocol".
At Yalta, Stalin got all of Eastern Europe and half of Poland. But that was not fair to Poland so Stalin suggested that President Roosevelt give Poland half of pre-war Germany to settle the displaced Polish Refugees that were driven out by Russians. Then Stalin insisted on controlling half of the half that remained of what had been Germany before the war. So Roosevelt agreed it would be occupied by the Soviet Army and under Stalin’s control. The remaining one third of the original Germany was then divided into three parts under French, British, and American control and at least 5 million starving German and Eastern European refugees fled socialism into Western Germany and Western Europe. President Truman was not happy having to execute the Yalta agreement.
http://history1900s.about.com/od/worldwarii/a/nonaggression.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference
Over 50,000 stray dogs roam the streets and vacant homes of bankrupt Detroit, replacing residents and menacing humans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/abandoned-dogs-roam-detroit-in-packs-as-humans-dwindle.html
Wednesday the WSJ reported that Obama has NSA spying on 75% of the American internet traffic. Could this explain the WSJ report that Holder now has a pile of new cases he can bring against corporations to keep the contributions to his socialist party coming in? Do Obama’s socialist policies explain why the America’s economy continues to sink endlessly regardless of how much money Obama throws at it? Will Obama ever realize that everything socialists do is a waste of the funds that are being taken away from smart American free enterprise? Jim Cramer finally is saying we have to wake up and smell the coffee.
Aug 20 The U.S. repurchase market where banks and investors borrow and lend Treasuries shrunk to only $4.6 trillion daily outstanding last month, down 35 % from when Obama took office. Investors are becoming alarmed that the USA is getting too deep in debt to be the common currency for the world. Obama said he is saving $2 Trillion by having American small and large businesses pay for health care or pay a fine. There is only one problem with that Obama claim, and that is that the EU countries do not saddle their competing companies with Health Care cost and they all already have lower corporation taxes than American companies. So what Obama has done is shift his $2Trillion dollar socialist government burden to American free enterprise companies and that will cost Americans more than $2Trillion in lost jobs and lost income while making American products unable to compete in the global markets. We are now in what will likely become known as Obama’s lost decade.
Everyone knows that Hugo Chavez, the deceased socialist president of Venezuela, was Obama’s hero. And everyone knows Obama hates the memory of Sir Winston Churchill and insulted Britain when he sent the White House bust of Churchill back to England. Here is what the WSJ reported Monday that Obama’s friend Hugo Chavez did for Venezuela. Before Chavez, the WSJ said Venezuela was self sufficient in steel, sugar, rice, oil, beef and coffee. Now thanks to Chavez’s socialism it imports steel, sugar, rice, beef and coffee and has nationalized the oil industry. And here is the reason that Obama hates Churchill. Churchill said, "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/w/winstonchu164131.html#HPwh5D3sQDgfTm7V.99
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323681904578640291651501034.html
http://blog.heritage.org/2012/07/12/morning-bell-obama-fails-to-see-serious-impact-of-hugo-chavez/
http://www.policymic.com/articles/15592/hugo-chavez-endorses-president-barack-obama-for-reelection
Aug 19 Barron’s this week says the EU has only kicked the debt problem down the road and Greece is getting ready to default again in a few months. Obama still refuses to bite the bullet on welfare entitlements like cell phones so the lazy can twitter their lives away and drop out of school instead of listening to their teachers in class.
The WSJ said Biden may run for president in 2016.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Syria needs to be crushed and its leaders tried for the worst example of genocide since Pol Pot of Cambodia.
Emerging markets are suddenly faced with capital being withdrawn and rising interest costs.
Economic woes in Italy and Spain persist, meaning banks will probably be forced to set aside more provisions as consumers and businesses fall into default since the sovereign debt is unsustainable because interest rates rise and southern European economies are not yet recovering.
Benchmark 10-year bund interest rates paid climbed to the highest level in 17 months indicating that higher rates are coming to Europe as well as North America.
India is facing financial instability as the U.S. Federal Reserve QE phase out contributes to the slide in the rupee. India’s Reserve Bank said that currency weakness could stoke higher consumer-price inflation. Also India has a current-account deficit that exceeds sustainable levels, slowing growth, budget-deficits and rising bad loans at banks.
Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to avoid a third Greek bail out until after her election.
Iceland’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 6%.
Britain posted its first July budget deficit since 2010.
Gold declined as the U.S. Federal Reserve gets ready to release minutes from its last meeting that may signal when policy makers will begin to phase out QE.
China is now facing a credit crunch and recently cut their buying of American debt by over $40 billion per month. Japan cut buying too as the world loses confidence in the rise of American socialism.
Barron’s reported that the EU has not outgrown the economic problems yet and another round of EU defaults is coming soon.
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s. The Chinese and American governments have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth anywhere in the world. Corporate cannibalism has passed as growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow and finally there is only one dead fish remaining.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
Jim Cramer said the US Justice Department was what did-in Microsoft. They were too successful so the Europeans and the US Justice Department attacked Microsoft to make sure they would lose influence in the PC business and Apple and others could come in and destroy the PC business. Microsoft will be looking for a new leader and has perhaps one more chance to re-invent themselves.
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, but MSNBC was literally openly lying about almost every statistic until this week.
Aug 21
MBA Mortgage Index 08/17 -4.6% down again after the last -4.7% ----
Existing Home Sales Jul 5.39M up slightly from 5.08M ++
Crude Inventories 08/17 -1.428M down again -2.812M -
FOMC Minutes 7/31 indicate QE3 phase out is starting -
Aug 22
Initial Claims 08/17 336K up from 320K --
Continuing Claims 08/10 2999K up from 2969K --
FHFA Housing Price Index Jun 0.7% held at 0.7% +
Leading Indicators Jul 0.6% up from 0.0% unbelievable reporting chaos
Natural Gas Inventories 08/17 57 bcf down from 65 bcf -
The Markets Aug 23, 2013
A flash crash was averted Thursday by containing it as a flash freeze. The exchanges are rigged against the small investors who are not even allowed to put in low-ball orders. But by rapidly dropping a stock price a high frequency trader can drop a price precipitously. Why not let the small investor put in high ball sell orders and low ball buy orders and absorb some profits while stabilizing the market instead of making the high frequency traders rich when they destabilize the market to get the same % profit and wipe out small investors who have stop loss orders.
Tight money is now putting pressure on emerging markets.
The stock market decline is slowly accelerating as short sellers grow profits, and cover, and then short a different stock that has not declined much. During a decline much of the shorting is automated to rotate out of the stocks that meet target declines and into shorting the stocks with the longest way to go. It becomes a frenzy but many stocks will be bargains again when they are 20% to 40% cheaper. The real threat is that Obama’s socialist waste will cause an economic depression.
On Monday the market broke the downside resistance levels for price and cash flow. On Tuesday it broke the fall. The last time it did that a few times about a month ago and the market subsequently dropped 5% before rising again. But this last time the cash flow did not break its previous high giving another indication that this bull market is over for now. But people will argue that no banks are failing yet. Those people should be reminded that the market peaked in the third quarter of 2007 and the panic took a year to materialize. We just heard the truth about Morgan Stanley and they were losing hundreds of millions on their "whale" when they were claiming only millions. The greatest threat now is a US market panic caused by a cash crunch in China which would dry up world purchases of USA treasuries and drive up USA debt costs quickly. Also according to the WSJ Greece is getting ready to announce their third default. The EU has made even less progress than the Obama administration. Obama openly admits he prefers the European for of socialism to American free enterprise. The worst thing Obama could cause is the world going off the US Dollar and to an international basket of currencies. Treasuries would plummet in value and interest on debt could drive the Obama administration towards bankruptcy along with many American cities and a few states.
The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. Jimmy Carter had a sideways market movement with his lost decade of in the 1970’s. We are now in Obama’s lost decade.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
The private clinic medical system in America is already beginning to evolve. It is the competent private alternative system that private doctors created to compete with slow incompetent socialized medicine. Clinics are private hospitals where the best USA doctors will set up practice. It will not deal with socialized medicine, the costs will be negotiated. They accept good private insurance but will not deal with the socialized system. You will not need insurance because the true cost of medicine before insurance companies and the national regulators runs in the EU at about 25% the cost of socialized medicine. You will be able to use private insurance or pay cash up front and get the lower negotiated rate. Doctors love to help people and they absolutely hate government regulations and harassing bickering which requires a large business office and an attorney to avoid bankruptcy.
Gold jewelry demand in Indonesia is at a four-year high as consumers in Southeast Asia’s biggest buyer join India to China in increasing purchases as their middle class expands. Consumption of necklaces, bracelets and rings will probably climb to 40 metric tons this year, according to the secretary-general of the Indonesian Goldsmiths and Jewelers Association. That’s a 30 percent increase from 2012.
Aug 22 Many short squeeze experts have been squeezed. And many individual investors are out of the market completely because it is so overpriced and based on fraudulent government statistics that would have you believe things are much better now than five years ago. The real threat is that Obama’s socialist waste will cause an economic depression. The WSJ today reported that over 6000 cases of disability fraud involving a few doctors and one federal employee have just been identified on the little island of Puerto Rico alone. Municipal bankruptcies loom large and residents in Detroit wonder how many people does it take each day to feed 50,000 stray dogs. It is hard to believe Detroit’s GM was claimed to be an Obama socialist success when the American automobile industry has been nuked by Obama and the only beneficiaries are the unions and the rich people who make over $100,000 per year and can afford a pricey subsidized Tesla vehicle that runs on toxic batteries that the USA dumps in China for recycling.
Free enterprise with private capital built an American canal and then a rail mass transportation system between cities. Then states created departments of transportation to regulate free enterprise so that every train car needed its own ticket agent/conductor and union featherbedding began to destroy mass transit profitability. So the railroad unions demanded socialistic transportation subsidies. Then Detroit got its automobile lobby going to push for socialist subsidized highways to handle more cars. So a socialist subsidized highway lobby took control of American transportation and soon the dream was for every American to have a private home in the country with a dog and a few chickens to keep the bugs down. Socialists lobbying for unions and regulation killed both rail mass transit and affordable city housing. Now free enterprise is back rebuilding the cities.
But modern socialist dream is where you don’t burn hydrocarbons in your car to generate mechanical motion. Instead you buy a highly subsidized car and make someone else burn the hydrocarbons in a new power plant in someone else’s back yard to create electricity, transform the electricity to high voltage, transmit the electricity on high voltage lines for hundreds of miles, transform the electricity back to low voltage, and finally charge up your newly designed car battery that is guaranteed for three years but is lucky to last two years. Then dump your dead battery in China.
It’s a wonderful life to have a socialist job where you vote for the socialist candidate who is corrupt and appoints your union arbitrator so you can retire from your state job after 10 years at 90% of salary and take another corrupt socialist state job. There are people who not only get multiple job pensions but also multiple social security pensions such as German, Swiss, and US social security and the corporate pensions from where they worked in each country. Another gets French, British, and Irish SS benefits plus three corporate pensions. This is a growing problem in the USA but a staggering expense for the even more corrupt and socialistic EU where it only takes 10 years to get social security.
Aug 21 The world economies loom on a precipice caused by legalized socialist looting. President Obama is not the only person that has problems understanding free enterprise. Socialists in general are socialists because they have no understanding of business, economics, or how to live within their means. They only know how to use governments to loot their country and others. And they work together under non-aggression treaties to squeeze out the free world’s economic engines of prosperity that still have leaders who do have understandings of business and economics. They end up like Stalin and Hitler did and divide the world up to loot all the non-socialist states first. Finally they try to loot each other as Hitler and Stalin did. President Roosevelt was enamored with the military success of the socialists and was sympathetic to the aims of socialism. At Yalta, President Roosevelt honored the Hitler-Stalin non-aggression pact and Roosevelt gave Stalin everything Hitler had promised Stalin in their secret pact’s "Secret Protocol".
At Yalta, Stalin got all of Eastern Europe and half of Poland. But that was not fair to Poland so Stalin suggested that President Roosevelt give Poland half of pre-war Germany to settle the displaced Polish Refugees that were driven out by Russians. Then Stalin insisted on controlling half of the half that remained of what had been Germany before the war. So Roosevelt agreed it would be occupied by the Soviet Army and under Stalin’s control. The remaining one third of the original Germany was then divided into three parts under French, British, and American control and at least 5 million starving German and Eastern European refugees fled socialism into Western Germany and Western Europe. President Truman was not happy having to execute the Yalta agreement.
http://history1900s.about.com/od/worldwarii/a/nonaggression.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference
Over 50,000 stray dogs roam the streets and vacant homes of bankrupt Detroit, replacing residents and menacing humans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/abandoned-dogs-roam-detroit-in-packs-as-humans-dwindle.html
Wednesday the WSJ reported that Obama has NSA spying on 75% of the American internet traffic. Could this explain the WSJ report that Holder now has a pile of new cases he can bring against corporations to keep the contributions to his socialist party coming in? Do Obama’s socialist policies explain why the America’s economy continues to sink endlessly regardless of how much money Obama throws at it? Will Obama ever realize that everything socialists do is a waste of the funds that are being taken away from smart American free enterprise? Jim Cramer finally is saying we have to wake up and smell the coffee.
Aug 20 The U.S. repurchase market where banks and investors borrow and lend Treasuries shrunk to only $4.6 trillion daily outstanding last month, down 35 % from when Obama took office. Investors are becoming alarmed that the USA is getting too deep in debt to be the common currency for the world. Obama said he is saving $2 Trillion by having American small and large businesses pay for health care or pay a fine. There is only one problem with that Obama claim, and that is that the EU countries do not saddle their competing companies with Health Care cost and they all already have lower corporation taxes than American companies. So what Obama has done is shift his $2Trillion dollar socialist government burden to American free enterprise companies and that will cost Americans more than $2Trillion in lost jobs and lost income while making American products unable to compete in the global markets. We are now in what will likely become known as Obama’s lost decade.
Everyone knows that Hugo Chavez, the deceased socialist president of Venezuela, was Obama’s hero. And everyone knows Obama hates the memory of Sir Winston Churchill and insulted Britain when he sent the White House bust of Churchill back to England. Here is what the WSJ reported Monday that Obama’s friend Hugo Chavez did for Venezuela. Before Chavez, the WSJ said Venezuela was self sufficient in steel, sugar, rice, oil, beef and coffee. Now thanks to Chavez’s socialism it imports steel, sugar, rice, beef and coffee and has nationalized the oil industry. And here is the reason that Obama hates Churchill. Churchill said, "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/w/winstonchu164131.html#HPwh5D3sQDgfTm7V.99
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323681904578640291651501034.html
http://blog.heritage.org/2012/07/12/morning-bell-obama-fails-to-see-serious-impact-of-hugo-chavez/
http://www.policymic.com/articles/15592/hugo-chavez-endorses-president-barack-obama-for-reelection
Aug 19 Barron’s this week says the EU has only kicked the debt problem down the road and Greece is getting ready to default again in a few months. Obama still refuses to bite the bullet on welfare entitlements like cell phones so the lazy can twitter their lives away and drop out of school instead of listening to their teachers in class.
The WSJ said Biden may run for president in 2016.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Syria needs to be crushed and its leaders tried for the worst example of genocide since Pol Pot of Cambodia.
Emerging markets are suddenly faced with capital being withdrawn and rising interest costs.
Economic woes in Italy and Spain persist, meaning banks will probably be forced to set aside more provisions as consumers and businesses fall into default since the sovereign debt is unsustainable because interest rates rise and southern European economies are not yet recovering.
Benchmark 10-year bund interest rates paid climbed to the highest level in 17 months indicating that higher rates are coming to Europe as well as North America.
India is facing financial instability as the U.S. Federal Reserve QE phase out contributes to the slide in the rupee. India’s Reserve Bank said that currency weakness could stoke higher consumer-price inflation. Also India has a current-account deficit that exceeds sustainable levels, slowing growth, budget-deficits and rising bad loans at banks.
Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to avoid a third Greek bail out until after her election.
Iceland’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 6%.
Britain posted its first July budget deficit since 2010.
Gold declined as the U.S. Federal Reserve gets ready to release minutes from its last meeting that may signal when policy makers will begin to phase out QE.
China is now facing a credit crunch and recently cut their buying of American debt by over $40 billion per month. Japan cut buying too as the world loses confidence in the rise of American socialism.
Barron’s reported that the EU has not outgrown the economic problems yet and another round of EU defaults is coming soon.
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s. The Chinese and American governments have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth anywhere in the world. Corporate cannibalism has passed as growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow and finally there is only one dead fish remaining.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
Jim Cramer said the US Justice Department was what did-in Microsoft. They were too successful so the Europeans and the US Justice Department attacked Microsoft to make sure they would lose influence in the PC business and Apple and others could come in and destroy the PC business. Microsoft will be looking for a new leader and has perhaps one more chance to re-invent themselves.
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, but MSNBC was literally openly lying about almost every statistic until this week.
Aug 21
MBA Mortgage Index 08/17 -4.6% down again after the last -4.7% ----
Existing Home Sales Jul 5.39M up slightly from 5.08M ++
Crude Inventories 08/17 -1.428M down again -2.812M -
FOMC Minutes 7/31 indicate QE3 phase out is starting -
Aug 22
Initial Claims 08/17 336K up from 320K --
Continuing Claims 08/10 2999K up from 2969K --
FHFA Housing Price Index Jun 0.7% held at 0.7% +
Leading Indicators Jul 0.6% up from 0.0% unbelievable reporting chaos
Natural Gas Inventories 08/17 57 bcf down from 65 bcf -
The Markets Aug 23, 2013
A flash crash was averted Thursday by containing it as a flash freeze. The exchanges are rigged against the small investors who are not even allowed to put in low-ball orders. But by rapidly dropping a stock price a high frequency trader can drop a price precipitously. Why not let the small investor put in high ball sell orders and low ball buy orders and absorb some profits while stabilizing the market instead of making the high frequency traders rich when they destabilize the market to get the same % profit and wipe out small investors who have stop loss orders.
Tight money is now putting pressure on emerging markets.
The stock market decline is slowly accelerating as short sellers grow profits, and cover, and then short a different stock that has not declined much. During a decline much of the shorting is automated to rotate out of the stocks that meet target declines and into shorting the stocks with the longest way to go. It becomes a frenzy but many stocks will be bargains again when they are 20% to 40% cheaper. The real threat is that Obama’s socialist waste will cause an economic depression.
On Monday the market broke the downside resistance levels for price and cash flow. On Tuesday it broke the fall. The last time it did that a few times about a month ago and the market subsequently dropped 5% before rising again. But this last time the cash flow did not break its previous high giving another indication that this bull market is over for now. But people will argue that no banks are failing yet. Those people should be reminded that the market peaked in the third quarter of 2007 and the panic took a year to materialize. We just heard the truth about Morgan Stanley and they were losing hundreds of millions on their "whale" when they were claiming only millions. The greatest threat now is a US market panic caused by a cash crunch in China which would dry up world purchases of USA treasuries and drive up USA debt costs quickly. Also according to the WSJ Greece is getting ready to announce their third default. The EU has made even less progress than the Obama administration. Obama openly admits he prefers the European for of socialism to American free enterprise. The worst thing Obama could cause is the world going off the US Dollar and to an international basket of currencies. Treasuries would plummet in value and interest on debt could drive the Obama administration towards bankruptcy along with many American cities and a few states.
The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. Jimmy Carter had a sideways market movement with his lost decade of in the 1970’s. We are now in Obama’s lost decade.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Monday, August 12, 2013
Aug 16 Fed-MSNBC economic statistics fraud becomes obvious and China has begun to phase out purchases of US debt! China is now beginning to face a credit crunch and recently cut their buying of American debt by over $40 billion per month. Obama’s QE is buying up $85 billion a month and may never end. Cutting QE would make it worse. Japan cut buying too and others will follow as the world sees that America has become a ship sinking under Obama’s welfare entitlements and that Americans are fleeing the repressive regime that is spying on and harassing Americans who historically have loved and fought for American freedom.
Reagan supporting democracy in Central America was a big scandal for the press in 1987 unlike the Obama government spying on Americans; the Obama IRS harassment of suspicious groups that like what liberty or the Founding Fathers or Patriots stood for; and the Obama government ran guns into Mexico causing over 30,000 civilian deaths. No, the liberal press wanted to impeach Reagan in 1987 for driving communists out of the jungles of Central, South America and Africa. After that attempt to impeach Reagan, Reagan went on to bring freedom to the Soviet Union and all of Eastern Europe. Finally the leftists then fell silent.
Aug 15 Baron’s and the WSJ reported that billionaire corporate raider Carl Icahn revealed that he has taken a "large position" in Apple at about $460-470/share. The 77-year-old is known for his often contentious black mail battles with big companies. Mr. Icahn now wants Apple borrow money at short term rates and buy back shares right now, likely starting around $525 a piece. Mr. Icahn says it would send shares to $625, without taking into account any possible earnings growth. That would make him a quick 35% profit when he sells everything and leaves Apple in debt just as interest rates are beginning to rapidly rise. He says of his investment, "This is a no brainer." How is that behavior different from stock manipulation and fraud?
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/08/13/aapl-should-borrow-at-3-buy-more-shares-icahn-tells-wsj/
Aug 14 Rick on Squawk Box MSNBC is one of the few honest reporters they have and he went ballistic at the corruption and phony government statistics we get these days. Inflation is not being reported as high as it really is because they take out the high cost of living of food and energy and put in declining costs such as housing which investors benefit from but almost no consumers see. This stock market is beginning to look more like what preceded the Panic of 1987 when nothing seemed to be going right for the administration and stocks suddenly plunged 20% in its first dip due to a lack of upticks thus freezing some markets that were hitting trading limits on the way down. It was not a flash crash but still one where many investors could not even execute their orders fast enough. This is how the calm looks before the storm. A crackdown of the "Payola" corruption of the television networks is needed.
This Ronald Regan video has gone viral. Ronald Regan’s critics always claimed he was too old and senile. Yet he stood out as much brighter than the socialist alternatives and he still does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=wrRTau5jusU
Aug 12 America before Obama (ABO) was a wonderful time when immigrants with skills were lured to America by the possibility of better economic opportunity for their nurturing families. Each year, thousands of Americans now pack up and move permanently to stable coherent nations to escape Obama’s high taxes, government harassment, family/societal destruction, and the hard times that only hard working people face in America.
Obama is now creating a banana republic. People seldom go to jail for taking drugs they go to jail for pushing drugs. They get arrested for drug possession but they need to be a danger to themselves or others and have saleable quantities to go to jail because drug addicts get their money committing crimes like theft, burglary and mugging people. Obama now wants to release between 20,000 and 40,000 thieves who are in jail for pushing drugs.
They say the US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess. Now Americans leave to find better opportunity and immigrants with no education or skills come to America for quick enrolment in welfare entitlements plus free phone and texting devices that most working Americans still have not found a good reason to buy. The families of about 60% of the people on American welfare have been destroyed leaving single parent homes that are the factor that has the highest correlation with poverty, ignorance and crime in America.
http://rt.com/usa/us-tax-income-pay-244/
Last week the WSJ reported State Department statistics that showed in the first half of 2013 more Americans renounced their citizenship to leave America than recorded in the history of "America before Obama" (ABO). In those six months it was twice the number as in the previous year so the rate is still accelerating. It is in the thousands per year now. Atlas is apparently shrugging.
Last week the WSJ also reported that thousands of small-business owners have received harassing letters from the Internal Revenue Service suggesting they are underreporting their business income. It is a harbinger of a broader initiative aimed at boosting federal tax receipts with the use of fear to squeeze mom and pop corporations that are barely making a living.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323838204579003093483824248.html
U.S. and European utilities now struggle to cope with the competition caused by taxpayer subsidized renewable energy suppliers that don’t have to pay their own costs. So in addition to the US going deeper into debt, the money is wasted because the renewable energy business is not sustainable without subsidies.
According to statistics from the US State Department, more Americans are now either working or studying overseas, which Gallup says is the largest number ever for such statistic.
http://rt.com/usa/leaving-us-america-country-289/
For some people, it is best to simply to pack up and leave.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303879604577410021186373802.html
Corporate earnings have now clearly peaked and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Major indexes finished Friday with their worst week since June, as investors found few reasons to buy with equity prices near record levels.
http://www.sify.com/finance/us-stocks-futures-slip-pointing-towards-worst-week-since-june-news-art+and+culture-nijrElhggga.html
The Wall Street Journal said Friday, "Stocks start to look overvalued."
http://worldnewsandwire.com/stocks-start-to-look-overvalued/
America’s opportunity to withdraw safely from QE may already have passed and pundits may still be talking about withdrawal long after Bernanke retires. Normally there is only two ways to withdraw from flooding the world with dollars: cold turkey or bankruptcy. A series of cascading stock market declines is on the horizon as long as socialist government officials think we can spend our way out of debt and into prosperity. We have not yet seen the bottom of Obama’s growing economic depression and will not see it until welfare and immigrant entitlements are solved. Japan has not been able to end their Quantitative easing since they started it in 1990.
It has been a few months since we pointed out the Hindenburg Omen that indicated the polarized pump and dump terminal phase of a bull market. In that phase the hedge funds select stocks that can be manipulated via large purchases to pump up price enough to give technical buy signals. They then dump those stocks when other investors get on board. Then they begin shorting other stocks that they know will result in technical sell signals. That is what causes the polarity at the end of a bull market because there are an abnormal number of stocks at new highs and new lows. Sometimes a Hindenburg Omen also occurs on the first market upturn after a bear market ends as it did after the last bear market, again when funds are very selective causing a sharp rise is certain stock while most are at new lows. That results in a polarization of the market at the end of the bear market.
Then on July 8 we pointed out that net cash was now flowing out of the stock market even though small investors were putting their money in. That is because the Obama pseudo-economist’s measure of cash flow does not account for all the cash being parked on the sidelines as risk increases.
It will take many years to unwind the Obama debt spree and his QE and Obama himself will go down in history for at least one or two lost decades with a shrinking middle class and growing poverty. Obama’s economic recovery has been pure poppycock. The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
A 1% growth rate in Europe is the latest claim that their recession is over. China is girding itself now with cash as bank failures loom. They will have to dump USA debt to bail out their banks and that will trigger the next big increase in America’s interest rates. QE has become an impotent tool and will soon inflict an uncontrollable contraction that will last decades just as Japan experienced. The only difference is Obama and Bernanke knew about Japan’s experience when they stuck the QE knife into the American economy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel denounced tax increases as "poison" promising to remain in office for the full four-year legislative period if she wins another term.
Polish economic growth accelerated from a four-year low while Czech Republic recovered from a record- long recession in the second quarter boosted by increased demand for eastern European exports as the euro zone halted its slump.
Cathay Pacific Airways, Asia’s largest international carrier, reported cargo revenue dropped and yields declined in North Asia. The slump in world trade has become worse but that benefits the balance of trade for America which is running the largest deficit in the history of the world. The Obama administration could leave America with the highest taxes, owing more money than the debt of all the American Wars including the American Revolution, and with more Americans leaving than to find safer places to live in Asia and Central America than seeking entrance to the USA. The only thing working to reduce Obama deficits are the delays in implementing Obama programs.
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt/equity exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost Quantitative Easing decades is putting pressure on top leaders to map out a strategy to tackle the threat. The Chinese and American governments have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth. Corporate cannibalism appears like growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow and finally there is one dead fish remaining. That one mouth is communism where all the data is fabricated.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline rapidly. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, but MSNBC has been literally openly lying about almost every statistic. The actually said initial unemployment claims were at a 4-month low when it was up 2% from the previous week!
Aug 8
Initial Claims 08/03 333K up from 326K -
Continuing Claims 07/27 3018K up from 2951K --
Then Monday the monthly budget increased almost 50% and they said the deficit was decreasing.
Aug 12
Treasury Budget Jul -$97.6B deficit increased from -$69.6B ---
Aug 13
Retail Sales Jul 0.2% down from 0.4%
Export Prices ex-ag. Jul 0.0% flat after -0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil Jul -0.4% dropped again from -0.3% --
Business Inventories Jun 0.0% flat from 0.1% ++
Aug 14
MBA Mortgage Index 08/10 -4.7% fell sharply from 0.2% ---
PPI Jul 0.0% erratic 0.8% -- manipulated
Core PPI Jul 0.1% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Crude Inventories 08/10 -2.812M down again -1.320M –
Aug 15
Initial Claims 08/10 320K down from 333K ++ This news was leaked out by Jim Cramer of MSNBC last week and we called him out last week as lying because the public numbers were actually poorer. This week we got the numbers he knew already last week and obvious case of government-MSNBC corruption.
Continuing Claims 08/03 2969K meaningless data 3018K
CPI Jul 0.2% erratic 0.5% -- manipulated
Core CPI Jul 0.2% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Empire Manufacturing Aug 8.6 down from 9.46 --
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun -$66.9B trade deficit doubled -$27.2B ---
Industrial Production Jul 0.0% sharply lower 0.3% --
Capacity Utilization Jul 77.6% down 77.8%
Philadelphia Fed Aug 9.3 sharp drop 19.8 ---
NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 59 dropped 57 --
Natural Gas Inventories 08/10 65 bcf down 96 bcf –
Housing stocks soared Thursday on an obvious leak Thursday of the government statistics released Friday. Also this week’s unemployment numbers were leaked last week when MSNBC mistakenly gave them out. Last week the unemployment news was bad and we called them out as lying. It turns out that MSNBC accidentally gave out this week’s numbers last week before they were made public. The Obama Administration is cooking the books.
Aug 16
Housing Starts Jul 896K up from 836K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Building Permits Jul 943K up from 911K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% up from 0.5% Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Unit Labor Costs Q2 1.4% up from -4.3% sloppy Government-MSNBC crony fraud
Mich Sentiment Aug 85.1 no change 85.1
The Markets Aug 16, 2013
The Obama government economic statistic fraud is getting very sloppy. Last week Cramer accidentally gave out this week’s unemployment statistics that are much better than the ones the Fed actually issued last week. We caught him on that. In the mean time "Big Brother" quibbles about the sentiment figures that some people pay $2,000000 for just one-day advance notice. Yesterday housing stocks surged and the rest of the stock market tanked obviously because they corrupt Obama government Fed gave them today’s numbers. Yesterday, Cramer also accidentally leaked that the mineral numbers were being fraudulently manipulated higher and he hesitated to push them seeing the whole market is now beginning to collapse.
A new round of layoffs at UTC and other major companies is beginning. The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. It may not be a sharp drop but more like a sideways movement similar to the lost decade of Jimmy Carter in the 1970’s.
In the 1960s there was a crackdown with "Payola" corruption of the radio networks. Record companies were paying announcers and radio stations to play their records to increase sales. It is becoming increasingly obvious that favorable stock market reports on MSNBC are being bought. No announcers could be so corrupt twisting the news and financial statics on their own with no financial incentive. I can remember when Jim Cramer said the single family housing market turned up in July of 2008 almost a full business cycle before it bottomed out. Television and in particular MSNBC and certain announcers like Cramer seem to be taking money to twist the financial and perhaps even the political news. Why would the also turn a blind eye to the administration’s gun running in Mexico to get people to want government to disarm patriots and spy on them. Why do they say nothing unless it is because they are getting political payoffs? How can this inept government possibly own so many people at one company like MSNBC?
The USA has three manipulated indices with the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which also are at what looks to be the end of this bull market run-up. The broader US NYSE is more difficult to manipulate and is indicating that American industry is no better positioned than the dismal European indices which say we are in an economic malaise.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Aug 15 Baron’s and the WSJ reported that billionaire corporate raider Carl Icahn revealed that he has taken a "large position" in Apple at about $460-470/share. The 77-year-old is known for his often contentious black mail battles with big companies. Mr. Icahn now wants Apple borrow money at short term rates and buy back shares right now, likely starting around $525 a piece. Mr. Icahn says it would send shares to $625, without taking into account any possible earnings growth. That would make him a quick 35% profit when he sells everything and leaves Apple in debt just as interest rates are beginning to rapidly rise. He says of his investment, "This is a no brainer." How is that behavior different from stock manipulation and fraud?
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/08/13/aapl-should-borrow-at-3-buy-more-shares-icahn-tells-wsj/
Aug 14 Rick on Squawk Box MSNBC is one of the few honest reporters they have and he went ballistic at the corruption and phony government statistics we get these days. Inflation is not being reported as high as it really is because they take out the high cost of living of food and energy and put in declining costs such as housing which investors benefit from but almost no consumers see. This stock market is beginning to look more like what preceded the Panic of 1987 when nothing seemed to be going right for the administration and stocks suddenly plunged 20% in its first dip due to a lack of upticks thus freezing some markets that were hitting trading limits on the way down. It was not a flash crash but still one where many investors could not even execute their orders fast enough. This is how the calm looks before the storm. A crackdown of the "Payola" corruption of the television networks is needed.
This Ronald Regan video has gone viral. Ronald Regan’s critics always claimed he was too old and senile. Yet he stood out as much brighter than the socialist alternatives and he still does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=wrRTau5jusU
Aug 12 America before Obama (ABO) was a wonderful time when immigrants with skills were lured to America by the possibility of better economic opportunity for their nurturing families. Each year, thousands of Americans now pack up and move permanently to stable coherent nations to escape Obama’s high taxes, government harassment, family/societal destruction, and the hard times that only hard working people face in America.
Obama is now creating a banana republic. People seldom go to jail for taking drugs they go to jail for pushing drugs. They get arrested for drug possession but they need to be a danger to themselves or others and have saleable quantities to go to jail because drug addicts get their money committing crimes like theft, burglary and mugging people. Obama now wants to release between 20,000 and 40,000 thieves who are in jail for pushing drugs.
They say the US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess. Now Americans leave to find better opportunity and immigrants with no education or skills come to America for quick enrolment in welfare entitlements plus free phone and texting devices that most working Americans still have not found a good reason to buy. The families of about 60% of the people on American welfare have been destroyed leaving single parent homes that are the factor that has the highest correlation with poverty, ignorance and crime in America.
http://rt.com/usa/us-tax-income-pay-244/
Last week the WSJ reported State Department statistics that showed in the first half of 2013 more Americans renounced their citizenship to leave America than recorded in the history of "America before Obama" (ABO). In those six months it was twice the number as in the previous year so the rate is still accelerating. It is in the thousands per year now. Atlas is apparently shrugging.
Last week the WSJ also reported that thousands of small-business owners have received harassing letters from the Internal Revenue Service suggesting they are underreporting their business income. It is a harbinger of a broader initiative aimed at boosting federal tax receipts with the use of fear to squeeze mom and pop corporations that are barely making a living.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323838204579003093483824248.html
U.S. and European utilities now struggle to cope with the competition caused by taxpayer subsidized renewable energy suppliers that don’t have to pay their own costs. So in addition to the US going deeper into debt, the money is wasted because the renewable energy business is not sustainable without subsidies.
According to statistics from the US State Department, more Americans are now either working or studying overseas, which Gallup says is the largest number ever for such statistic.
http://rt.com/usa/leaving-us-america-country-289/
For some people, it is best to simply to pack up and leave.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303879604577410021186373802.html
Corporate earnings have now clearly peaked and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Major indexes finished Friday with their worst week since June, as investors found few reasons to buy with equity prices near record levels.
http://www.sify.com/finance/us-stocks-futures-slip-pointing-towards-worst-week-since-june-news-art+and+culture-nijrElhggga.html
The Wall Street Journal said Friday, "Stocks start to look overvalued."
http://worldnewsandwire.com/stocks-start-to-look-overvalued/
America’s opportunity to withdraw safely from QE may already have passed and pundits may still be talking about withdrawal long after Bernanke retires. Normally there is only two ways to withdraw from flooding the world with dollars: cold turkey or bankruptcy. A series of cascading stock market declines is on the horizon as long as socialist government officials think we can spend our way out of debt and into prosperity. We have not yet seen the bottom of Obama’s growing economic depression and will not see it until welfare and immigrant entitlements are solved. Japan has not been able to end their Quantitative easing since they started it in 1990.
It has been a few months since we pointed out the Hindenburg Omen that indicated the polarized pump and dump terminal phase of a bull market. In that phase the hedge funds select stocks that can be manipulated via large purchases to pump up price enough to give technical buy signals. They then dump those stocks when other investors get on board. Then they begin shorting other stocks that they know will result in technical sell signals. That is what causes the polarity at the end of a bull market because there are an abnormal number of stocks at new highs and new lows. Sometimes a Hindenburg Omen also occurs on the first market upturn after a bear market ends as it did after the last bear market, again when funds are very selective causing a sharp rise is certain stock while most are at new lows. That results in a polarization of the market at the end of the bear market.
Then on July 8 we pointed out that net cash was now flowing out of the stock market even though small investors were putting their money in. That is because the Obama pseudo-economist’s measure of cash flow does not account for all the cash being parked on the sidelines as risk increases.
It will take many years to unwind the Obama debt spree and his QE and Obama himself will go down in history for at least one or two lost decades with a shrinking middle class and growing poverty. Obama’s economic recovery has been pure poppycock. The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
A 1% growth rate in Europe is the latest claim that their recession is over. China is girding itself now with cash as bank failures loom. They will have to dump USA debt to bail out their banks and that will trigger the next big increase in America’s interest rates. QE has become an impotent tool and will soon inflict an uncontrollable contraction that will last decades just as Japan experienced. The only difference is Obama and Bernanke knew about Japan’s experience when they stuck the QE knife into the American economy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel denounced tax increases as "poison" promising to remain in office for the full four-year legislative period if she wins another term.
Polish economic growth accelerated from a four-year low while Czech Republic recovered from a record- long recession in the second quarter boosted by increased demand for eastern European exports as the euro zone halted its slump.
Cathay Pacific Airways, Asia’s largest international carrier, reported cargo revenue dropped and yields declined in North Asia. The slump in world trade has become worse but that benefits the balance of trade for America which is running the largest deficit in the history of the world. The Obama administration could leave America with the highest taxes, owing more money than the debt of all the American Wars including the American Revolution, and with more Americans leaving than to find safer places to live in Asia and Central America than seeking entrance to the USA. The only thing working to reduce Obama deficits are the delays in implementing Obama programs.
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt/equity exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost Quantitative Easing decades is putting pressure on top leaders to map out a strategy to tackle the threat. The Chinese and American governments have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth. Corporate cannibalism appears like growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow and finally there is one dead fish remaining. That one mouth is communism where all the data is fabricated.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline rapidly. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, but MSNBC has been literally openly lying about almost every statistic. The actually said initial unemployment claims were at a 4-month low when it was up 2% from the previous week!
Aug 8
Initial Claims 08/03 333K up from 326K -
Continuing Claims 07/27 3018K up from 2951K --
Then Monday the monthly budget increased almost 50% and they said the deficit was decreasing.
Aug 12
Treasury Budget Jul -$97.6B deficit increased from -$69.6B ---
Aug 13
Retail Sales Jul 0.2% down from 0.4%
Export Prices ex-ag. Jul 0.0% flat after -0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil Jul -0.4% dropped again from -0.3% --
Business Inventories Jun 0.0% flat from 0.1% ++
Aug 14
MBA Mortgage Index 08/10 -4.7% fell sharply from 0.2% ---
PPI Jul 0.0% erratic 0.8% -- manipulated
Core PPI Jul 0.1% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Crude Inventories 08/10 -2.812M down again -1.320M –
Aug 15
Initial Claims 08/10 320K down from 333K ++ This news was leaked out by Jim Cramer of MSNBC last week and we called him out last week as lying because the public numbers were actually poorer. This week we got the numbers he knew already last week and obvious case of government-MSNBC corruption.
Continuing Claims 08/03 2969K meaningless data 3018K
CPI Jul 0.2% erratic 0.5% -- manipulated
Core CPI Jul 0.2% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Empire Manufacturing Aug 8.6 down from 9.46 --
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun -$66.9B trade deficit doubled -$27.2B ---
Industrial Production Jul 0.0% sharply lower 0.3% --
Capacity Utilization Jul 77.6% down 77.8%
Philadelphia Fed Aug 9.3 sharp drop 19.8 ---
NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 59 dropped 57 --
Natural Gas Inventories 08/10 65 bcf down 96 bcf –
Housing stocks soared Thursday on an obvious leak Thursday of the government statistics released Friday. Also this week’s unemployment numbers were leaked last week when MSNBC mistakenly gave them out. Last week the unemployment news was bad and we called them out as lying. It turns out that MSNBC accidentally gave out this week’s numbers last week before they were made public. The Obama Administration is cooking the books.
Aug 16
Housing Starts Jul 896K up from 836K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Building Permits Jul 943K up from 911K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% up from 0.5% Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Unit Labor Costs Q2 1.4% up from -4.3% sloppy Government-MSNBC crony fraud
Mich Sentiment Aug 85.1 no change 85.1
The Markets Aug 16, 2013
The Obama government economic statistic fraud is getting very sloppy. Last week Cramer accidentally gave out this week’s unemployment statistics that are much better than the ones the Fed actually issued last week. We caught him on that. In the mean time "Big Brother" quibbles about the sentiment figures that some people pay $2,000000 for just one-day advance notice. Yesterday housing stocks surged and the rest of the stock market tanked obviously because they corrupt Obama government Fed gave them today’s numbers. Yesterday, Cramer also accidentally leaked that the mineral numbers were being fraudulently manipulated higher and he hesitated to push them seeing the whole market is now beginning to collapse.
A new round of layoffs at UTC and other major companies is beginning. The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. It may not be a sharp drop but more like a sideways movement similar to the lost decade of Jimmy Carter in the 1970’s.
In the 1960s there was a crackdown with "Payola" corruption of the radio networks. Record companies were paying announcers and radio stations to play their records to increase sales. It is becoming increasingly obvious that favorable stock market reports on MSNBC are being bought. No announcers could be so corrupt twisting the news and financial statics on their own with no financial incentive. I can remember when Jim Cramer said the single family housing market turned up in July of 2008 almost a full business cycle before it bottomed out. Television and in particular MSNBC and certain announcers like Cramer seem to be taking money to twist the financial and perhaps even the political news. Why would the also turn a blind eye to the administration’s gun running in Mexico to get people to want government to disarm patriots and spy on them. Why do they say nothing unless it is because they are getting political payoffs? How can this inept government possibly own so many people at one company like MSNBC?
The USA has three manipulated indices with the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which also are at what looks to be the end of this bull market run-up. The broader US NYSE is more difficult to manipulate and is indicating that American industry is no better positioned than the dismal European indices which say we are in an economic malaise.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Aug 9 There is good news because Obama has proposed a “wind down” of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two gigantic socialistic crony government mortgage-finance companies were privileged and run by government appointees. Private enterprise banks were run out of the business. The Bush administration had tried to cork them in 2006 but the democrat controlled congress thought the lax credit rules would increase home ownership beyond the traditional 66%. Instead, home ownership has dropped to less than 62% and credit markets froze and bankruptcies surged. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged the liar loan business to boom when private enterprise firms were vigorously prosecuted because they did not approve loans to a few credit worthy minorities who did not give sufficient proof of being credit worthy. That trumped up harassment of anyone conducting due diligence forced all levels of the RE market to drop credit standards to avoid harassment by socialists.
The liar loans quickly ballooned and worked their way into
CDOs and other derivatives and insurance paper.
The discovery of worthless mortgage backed paper triggered the financial
freeze-up and the current seven year recession.
The socialist Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac agencies were then bailed out
by the government when they failed. The harassment
of prudent RE ventures and the concentration of the mortgage business in Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac had made a recovery almost impossible. The government appointees running them make
fantastic salaries, get great benefits, and retire like kings. It is good news if Obama truly ends these
socialistic quasi-government institutions that made mortgage fraud a government
policy.
Earnings have now clearly peaked and do not support current
prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Major indexes are on track for their worst week since June,
as investors found few reasons to buy with equity prices near record levels.
The Wall Street Journal today said, “Stocks start to look
overvalued.”
Aug 8 The Obama
Quantitative Easing (QE) addiction comes with a price. There is no such thing as a slow withdrawal
or phasing out of an addiction, even the addiction of over spending. It comes with a price, either the current slow
present death of the economy failing, or sudden economic heart failure from an
overdose with subsequent damaging collapse of the financial system. The traditional free enterprise quick recovery
requires that the nation bites the bullet and faces “cold turkey” in order to let
non profitable business and socialist concepts fail so there can be lasting
economic recovery. Japan
Aug 6 Obama’s
economic recovery has been pure poppycock.
It has been a few months since we pointed out the Hindenburg Omen which indicated
the polarized pump and dump ending phase of a bull market. In that phase the hedge funds select stocks
that can be manipulated via large purchases to pump up price enough to give
technical buy signals. They then dump those
stocks when other investors get on board.
Then they begin shorting other stocks that they know will result in
technical sell signals. That is what
causes the polarity at the end of a bull market because there are an abnormal
number of stocks at new highs and new lows.
Sometimes a Hindenburg Omen also occurs
on the first market upturn after a bear market ends as it did after the last
bear market. Then on July 8 we pointed
out that net cash was flowing out even though small investors were putting
their money in. That is because the Obama
pseudo-economist’s measure of cash flow does not account for all the cash being
parked on the sidelines as risk increases.
We have a proprietary market cash flow analysis (MCFA) and
found and fixed a problem so it can now handle long term variations in stock
market volume. It is not a service and
we give no advice but share our observations from time to time just as we do
for other indicators we watch, none of which are completely reliable. It often gives a month and sometimes longer
to pick a time to sell out. And
sometimes it gives very little warning at all to sell. Often it is too quick and inaccurate picking
the exact bottom. MCFA also finds
corrections that last only a year. But
the Hindenburg Omen would imply we are entering a long bear market not a short
one, and both stocks and bonds are about to cascade downwards causing loss of
equity and forced selling and panics. At
the same time industries that are irresponsibly leveraged with debt will
collapse when they are downgraded and their 30 day debt interest rate
skyrockets.
It will take years to unwind the Obama debt spree and his QE
and Obama himself will go down in history for at least one or two lost decades
with a shrinking middle class and growing poverty. Obama’s economic recovery has been pure
poppycock. The US
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt/equity now exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The German market has
begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after
failing to reach its last high. It also
failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
The French market has
continued to decline since year 2000. At
it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from
2000.
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar
to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of
15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too
big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
American Economy
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now
manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist
China, so MSNBC/Pravda this week has literally been openly lying and actually said
initial claims were at a 4 month low when it was up 2% from last week!
Aug 5
ISM Services Jul 56.0 53.1 53.2 52.2 -
Aug 6
Trade Balance Jun -$34.2B trading deficit continues -$45.0B
--
JOLTS - Job Openings Jun 3.936M flat and part time
increasing 3.828M --
Aug 7
MBA Mortgage Index 08/03 0.2% stagnant or worse -3.7% - -
Crude Inventories 08/03 -1.320M NA NA 0.431M -
Consumer Credit Jun $13.8B declined from $19.6B --
Aug 8
Initial Claims 08/03
333K up from 326K -
Continuing Claims 07/27 3018K up from 2951K --
Pravda/MSNBC was blatantly lying about these statistics this
morning.
Natural Gas Inventories 08/03 96 bcf up from 59 bcf +
The Markets Aug 9, 2013
The US
The broader US USA
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half
the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it
is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been
dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks
close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about
to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear
market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Aug 2 Privacy is at risk not just from the government. A new study from app analysis firm Appthority finds 95% of top free applications spy on users and can leak private Data. Such activity could be used to plant routines to shut down communication during a crisis similar to how Iranian nuclear centrifuges were sabotaged. It is conceivable that home and business security systems could also then be hacked and sabotaged allowing access to other equipment, assets, and files. It is conceivable that the Obama government could also exploit these private security breaches.
UPS CEO Scott Davis weighed in on the state of the U.S. economy Thursday saying that a lack of clarity on fiscal and tax policy from Washington, D.C. is still crippling the economy.
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Thursday, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi suggested the euro region is past the worst after euro-area manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in July for the first time in two years.
U.S. crude oil prices surged 2.8% on Thursday with no significant increase in demand. Banks are now speculating with investments in materials inventories as new tax avoidance loopholes are exploited.
While the Obama Depression started with a sharp market drop the day after he was elected in 2008 and has now gone on for five years the economic damage of socialism has advanced even faster in Western Europe with the exception of Germany and Switzerland.
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell formation after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Kenya is one of the strongest socialist countries in Africa and the situation is far worse. Kenya now has little room left to stimulate the economy further by cutting interest rates further this year as the inflation outlook for East Africa’s biggest economy further deteriorates, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said Monday. The benchmark interest rate has been cut by 9.5 percentage points since the easing cycle began last year and sits at 8.5 percent this month. "There is very little room if any left for more monetary easing because inflation is already picking up," Rotich said in an interview today in the capital, Nairobi. Annual inflation is already at 4.9 during the recession according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. New taxes only fan inflation, according to Deloitte.
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
American Economy
Jul 29
Pending Home Sales Jun -0.4% down sharply from 6.7% ----
Jul 30
Case-Shiller 20-city Index May 12.2% virtually unchanged from 12.1% -
Consumer Confidence Jul 80.3 down from 81.4 --
Jul 31
MBA Mortgage Index 07/27 -3.7% sharply lower from -1.2% --
ADP Employment Change Jul 200K up from188K --
GDP-Adv. Q2 1.7% -down from 1.8% -
Employment (*US labor) Cost Index Q2 0.5% inc from 0.3% --
Chicago PMI Jul 52.3 improved drom 51.6 +
Crude Inventories 07/27 0.431M improved from -2.825M +
FOMC Rate Decision Jul 0.25% 0no change from 0.25%
Aug 1
Challenger Job Cuts Jul 2.3% down from 4.8% +
Initial Claims 07/27 326K down from 343K +
Continuing Claims 07/20 2951K down from 2997K +
ISM Index Jul 55.4 up from 50.9 ++
Construction Spending Jun -0.6% down sharply from 0.5% ----
Natural Gas Inventories 07/27 59 bcf up from 41 bcf +
Aug 2
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 162K declinedfrom 195K ---
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul 161K down sharply from 202K ---
Unemployment Rate Jul 7.4% unchanged other than by excclusion of data 7.6% -
Hourly Earnings Jul fell -0.1% -
Average Workweek Jul 34.4 down from 34.5 -
Personal Income Jun 0.3% down from 0.5%
Personal Spending Jun 0.5% up from 0.3%
PCE Prices - Core Jun 0.2% up from0.1% -
Factory Orders Jun 1.5% down from 2.1% --
The Markets Aug 2, 2013
The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.
The broader US indices that are difficult to manipulate are no better positioned than the dismal European indices. The USA has three manipulated indices the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which is quoted now at what looks to be the end of this bull market. The NYSE is a broader and hence more difficult American index to manipulate.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
Thursday, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi suggested the euro region is past the worst after euro-area manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in July for the first time in two years.
U.S. crude oil prices surged 2.8% on Thursday with no significant increase in demand. Banks are now speculating with investments in materials inventories as new tax avoidance loopholes are exploited.
While the Obama Depression started with a sharp market drop the day after he was elected in 2008 and has now gone on for five years the economic damage of socialism has advanced even faster in Western Europe with the exception of Germany and Switzerland.
The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell formation after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Kenya is one of the strongest socialist countries in Africa and the situation is far worse. Kenya now has little room left to stimulate the economy further by cutting interest rates further this year as the inflation outlook for East Africa’s biggest economy further deteriorates, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said Monday. The benchmark interest rate has been cut by 9.5 percentage points since the easing cycle began last year and sits at 8.5 percent this month. "There is very little room if any left for more monetary easing because inflation is already picking up," Rotich said in an interview today in the capital, Nairobi. Annual inflation is already at 4.9 during the recession according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. New taxes only fan inflation, according to Deloitte.
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
American Economy
Jul 29
Pending Home Sales Jun -0.4% down sharply from 6.7% ----
Jul 30
Case-Shiller 20-city Index May 12.2% virtually unchanged from 12.1% -
Consumer Confidence Jul 80.3 down from 81.4 --
Jul 31
MBA Mortgage Index 07/27 -3.7% sharply lower from -1.2% --
ADP Employment Change Jul 200K up from188K --
GDP-Adv. Q2 1.7% -down from 1.8% -
Employment (*US labor) Cost Index Q2 0.5% inc from 0.3% --
Chicago PMI Jul 52.3 improved drom 51.6 +
Crude Inventories 07/27 0.431M improved from -2.825M +
FOMC Rate Decision Jul 0.25% 0no change from 0.25%
Aug 1
Challenger Job Cuts Jul 2.3% down from 4.8% +
Initial Claims 07/27 326K down from 343K +
Continuing Claims 07/20 2951K down from 2997K +
ISM Index Jul 55.4 up from 50.9 ++
Construction Spending Jun -0.6% down sharply from 0.5% ----
Natural Gas Inventories 07/27 59 bcf up from 41 bcf +
Aug 2
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 162K declinedfrom 195K ---
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul 161K down sharply from 202K ---
Unemployment Rate Jul 7.4% unchanged other than by excclusion of data 7.6% -
Hourly Earnings Jul fell -0.1% -
Average Workweek Jul 34.4 down from 34.5 -
Personal Income Jun 0.3% down from 0.5%
Personal Spending Jun 0.5% up from 0.3%
PCE Prices - Core Jun 0.2% up from0.1% -
Factory Orders Jun 1.5% down from 2.1% --
The Markets Aug 2, 2013
The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.
The broader US indices that are difficult to manipulate are no better positioned than the dismal European indices. The USA has three manipulated indices the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which is quoted now at what looks to be the end of this bull market. The NYSE is a broader and hence more difficult American index to manipulate.
We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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