Monday, August 12, 2013

Aug 16 Fed-MSNBC economic statistics fraud becomes obvious and China has begun to phase out purchases of US debt! China is now beginning to face a credit crunch and recently cut their buying of American debt by over $40 billion per month. Obama’s QE is buying up $85 billion a month and may never end. Cutting QE would make it worse. Japan cut buying too and others will follow as the world sees that America has become a ship sinking under Obama’s welfare entitlements and that Americans are fleeing the repressive regime that is spying on and harassing Americans who historically have loved and fought for American freedom.

Reagan supporting democracy in Central America was a big scandal for the press in 1987 unlike the Obama government spying on Americans; the Obama IRS harassment of suspicious groups that like what liberty or the Founding Fathers or Patriots stood for; and the Obama government ran guns into Mexico causing over 30,000 civilian deaths. No, the liberal press wanted to impeach Reagan in 1987 for driving communists out of the jungles of Central, South America and Africa. After that attempt to impeach Reagan, Reagan went on to bring freedom to the Soviet Union and all of Eastern Europe. Finally the leftists then fell silent.

Aug 15 Baron’s and the WSJ reported that billionaire corporate raider Carl Icahn revealed that he has taken a "large position" in Apple at about $460-470/share. The 77-year-old is known for his often contentious black mail battles with big companies. Mr. Icahn now wants Apple borrow money at short term rates and buy back shares right now, likely starting around $525 a piece.   Mr. Icahn says it would send shares to $625, without taking into account any possible earnings growth. That would make him a quick 35% profit when he sells everything and leaves Apple in debt just as interest rates are beginning to rapidly rise. He says of his investment, "This is a no brainer." How is that behavior different from stock manipulation and fraud?
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/08/13/aapl-should-borrow-at-3-buy-more-shares-icahn-tells-wsj/

Aug 14 Rick on Squawk Box MSNBC is one of the few honest reporters they have and he went ballistic at the corruption and phony government statistics we get these days. Inflation is not being reported as high as it really is because they take out the high cost of living of food and energy and put in declining costs such as housing which investors benefit from but almost no consumers see. This stock market is beginning to look more like what preceded the Panic of 1987 when nothing seemed to be going right for the administration and stocks suddenly plunged 20% in its first dip due to a lack of upticks thus freezing some markets that were hitting trading limits on the way down. It was not a flash crash but still one where many investors could not even execute their orders fast enough. This is how the calm looks before the storm. A crackdown of the "Payola" corruption of the television networks is needed.
This Ronald Regan video has gone viral. Ronald Regan’s critics always claimed he was too old and senile. Yet he stood out as much brighter than the socialist alternatives and he still does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=wrRTau5jusU

Aug 12 America before Obama (ABO) was a wonderful time when immigrants with skills were lured to America by the possibility of better economic opportunity for their nurturing families. Each year, thousands of Americans now pack up and move permanently to stable coherent nations to escape Obama’s high taxes, government harassment, family/societal destruction, and the hard times that only hard working people face in America.
Obama is now creating a banana republic. People seldom go to jail for taking drugs they go to jail for pushing drugs. They get arrested for drug possession but they need to be a danger to themselves or others and have saleable quantities to go to jail because drug addicts get their money committing crimes like theft, burglary and mugging people. Obama now wants to release between 20,000 and 40,000 thieves who are in jail for pushing drugs.

They say the US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess. Now Americans leave to find better opportunity and immigrants with no education or skills come to America for quick enrolment in welfare entitlements plus free phone and texting devices that most working Americans still have not found a good reason to buy. The families of about 60% of the people on American welfare have been destroyed leaving single parent homes that are the factor that has the highest correlation with poverty, ignorance and crime in America.
http://rt.com/usa/us-tax-income-pay-244/

Last week the WSJ reported State Department statistics that showed in the first half of 2013 more Americans renounced their citizenship to leave America than recorded in the history of "America before Obama" (ABO). In those six months it was twice the number as in the previous year so the rate is still accelerating. It is in the thousands per year now. Atlas is apparently shrugging.
Last week the WSJ also reported that thousands of small-business owners have received harassing letters from the Internal Revenue Service suggesting they are underreporting their business income. It is a harbinger of a broader initiative aimed at boosting federal tax receipts with the use of fear to squeeze mom and pop corporations that are barely making a living.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323838204579003093483824248.html
U.S. and European utilities now struggle to cope with the competition caused by taxpayer subsidized renewable energy suppliers that don’t have to pay their own costs. So in addition to the US going deeper into debt, the money is wasted because the renewable energy business is not sustainable without subsidies.  
According to statistics from the US State Department, more Americans are now either working or studying overseas, which Gallup says is the largest number ever for such statistic.
http://rt.com/usa/leaving-us-america-country-289/

For some people, it is best to simply to pack up and leave.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303879604577410021186373802.html
Corporate earnings have now clearly peaked and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout
Major indexes finished Friday with their worst week since June, as investors found few reasons to buy with equity prices near record levels.
http://www.sify.com/finance/us-stocks-futures-slip-pointing-towards-worst-week-since-june-news-art+and+culture-nijrElhggga.html

The Wall Street Journal said Friday, "Stocks start to look overvalued."
http://worldnewsandwire.com/stocks-start-to-look-overvalued/
America’s opportunity to withdraw safely from QE may already have passed and pundits may still be talking about withdrawal long after Bernanke retires. Normally there is only two ways to withdraw from flooding the world with dollars: cold turkey or bankruptcy. A series of cascading stock market declines is on the horizon as long as socialist government officials think we can spend our way out of debt and into prosperity. We have not yet seen the bottom of Obama’s growing economic depression and will not see it until welfare and immigrant entitlements are solved. Japan has not been able to end their Quantitative easing since they started it in 1990.

It has been a few months since we pointed out the Hindenburg Omen that indicated the polarized pump and dump terminal phase of a bull market. In that phase the hedge funds select stocks that can be manipulated via large purchases to pump up price enough to give technical buy signals. They then dump those stocks when other investors get on board. Then they begin shorting other stocks that they know will result in technical sell signals. That is what causes the polarity at the end of a bull market because there are an abnormal number of stocks at new highs and new lows. Sometimes a Hindenburg Omen also occurs on the first market upturn after a bear market ends as it did after the last bear market, again when funds are very selective causing a sharp rise is certain stock while most are at new lows. That results in a polarization of the market at the end of the bear market.
Then on July 8 we pointed out that net cash was now flowing out of the stock market even though small investors were putting their money in. That is because the Obama pseudo-economist’s measure of cash flow does not account for all the cash being parked on the sidelines as risk increases.
It will take many years to unwind the Obama debt spree and his QE and Obama himself will go down in history for at least one or two lost decades with a shrinking middle class and growing poverty. Obama’s economic recovery has been pure poppycock. The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html
A 1% growth rate in Europe is the latest claim that their recession is over. China is girding itself now with cash as bank failures loom. They will have to dump USA debt to bail out their banks and that will trigger the next big increase in America’s interest rates. QE has become an impotent tool and will soon inflict an uncontrollable contraction that will last decades just as Japan experienced. The only difference is Obama and Bernanke knew about Japan’s experience when they stuck the QE knife into the American economy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel denounced tax increases as "poison" promising to remain in office for the full four-year legislative period if she wins another term.
Polish economic growth accelerated from a four-year low while Czech Republic recovered from a record- long recession in the second quarter boosted by increased demand for eastern European exports as the euro zone halted its slump.
Cathay Pacific Airways, Asia’s largest international carrier, reported cargo revenue dropped and yields declined in North Asia. The slump in world trade has become worse but that benefits the balance of trade for America which is running the largest deficit in the history of the world. The Obama administration could leave America with the highest taxes, owing more money than the debt of all the American Wars including the American Revolution, and with more Americans leaving than to find safer places to live in Asia and Central America than seeking entrance to the USA. The only thing working to reduce Obama deficits are the delays in implementing Obama programs.
Mushrooming Chinese non-performing local-government and corporate debt/equity exceeds the magnitude that tipped other Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost Quantitative Easing decades is putting pressure on top leaders to map out a strategy to tackle the threat. The Chinese and American governments have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth. Corporate cannibalism appears like growth when in fact the big fish are eating the little fish to grow and finally there is one dead fish remaining. That one mouth is communism where all the data is fabricated.
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline rapidly. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI

The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

American Economy
It wasn’t enough that our socialists in government now manipulate America’s economic statistics almost as much as they do in socialist China, but MSNBC has been literally openly lying about almost every statistic. The actually said initial unemployment claims were at a 4-month low when it was up 2% from the previous week!
Aug 8
Initial Claims 08/03 333K up from 326K -
Continuing Claims 07/27 3018K up from 2951K --
Then Monday the monthly budget increased almost 50% and they said the deficit was decreasing.
Aug 12
Treasury Budget Jul -$97.6B deficit increased from -$69.6B ---
Aug 13
Retail Sales Jul 0.2% down from 0.4%
Export Prices ex-ag. Jul 0.0% flat after -0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil Jul -0.4% dropped again from -0.3% --
Business Inventories Jun 0.0% flat from 0.1% ++
Aug 14
MBA Mortgage Index 08/10 -4.7% fell sharply from 0.2% ---
PPI Jul 0.0% erratic 0.8% -- manipulated
Core PPI Jul 0.1% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Crude Inventories 08/10 -2.812M down again -1.320M –
Aug 15
Initial Claims 08/10 320K down from 333K ++ This news was leaked out by Jim Cramer of MSNBC last week and we called him out last week as lying because the public numbers were actually poorer. This week we got the numbers he knew already last week and obvious case of government-MSNBC corruption.
Continuing Claims 08/03 2969K meaningless data 3018K
CPI Jul 0.2% erratic 0.5% -- manipulated
Core CPI Jul 0.2% unrealistic 0.2% -- manipulated
Empire Manufacturing Aug 8.6 down from 9.46 --
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun -$66.9B trade deficit doubled -$27.2B ---
Industrial Production Jul 0.0% sharply lower 0.3% --
Capacity Utilization Jul 77.6% down 77.8%
Philadelphia Fed Aug 9.3 sharp drop 19.8 ---
NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 59 dropped 57 --
Natural Gas Inventories 08/10 65 bcf down 96 bcf –
Housing stocks soared Thursday on an obvious leak Thursday of the government statistics released Friday. Also this week’s unemployment numbers were leaked last week when MSNBC mistakenly gave them out. Last week the unemployment news was bad and we called them out as lying. It turns out that MSNBC accidentally gave out this week’s numbers last week before they were made public. The Obama Administration is cooking the books.
Aug 16
Housing Starts Jul 896K up from 836K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Building Permits Jul 943K up from 911K Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% up from 0.5% Government-MSNBC crony fraud payola
Unit Labor Costs Q2 1.4% up from -4.3% sloppy Government-MSNBC crony fraud
Mich Sentiment Aug 85.1 no change 85.1

The Markets Aug 16, 2013
The Obama government economic statistic fraud is getting very sloppy. Last week Cramer accidentally gave out this week’s unemployment statistics that are much better than the ones the Fed actually issued last week. We caught him on that. In the mean time "Big Brother" quibbles about the sentiment figures that some people pay $2,000000 for just one-day advance notice. Yesterday housing stocks surged and the rest of the stock market tanked obviously because they corrupt Obama government Fed gave them today’s numbers. Yesterday, Cramer also accidentally leaked that the mineral numbers were being fraudulently manipulated higher and he hesitated to push them seeing the whole market is now beginning to collapse.
A new round of layoffs at UTC and other major companies is beginning. The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. It may not be a sharp drop but more like a sideways movement similar to the lost decade of Jimmy Carter in the 1970’s.
In the 1960s there was a crackdown with "Payola" corruption of the radio networks. Record companies were paying announcers and radio stations to play their records to increase sales. It is becoming increasingly obvious that favorable stock market reports on MSNBC are being bought. No announcers could be so corrupt twisting the news and financial statics on their own with no financial incentive. I can remember when Jim Cramer said the single family housing market turned up in July of 2008 almost a full business cycle before it bottomed out. Television and in particular MSNBC and certain announcers like Cramer seem to be taking money to twist the financial and perhaps even the political news. Why would the also turn a blind eye to the administration’s gun running in Mexico to get people to want government to disarm patriots and spy on them. Why do they say nothing unless it is because they are getting political payoffs? How can this inept government possibly own so many people at one company like MSNBC?
The USA has three manipulated indices with the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which also are at what looks to be the end of this bull market run-up. The broader US NYSE is more difficult to manipulate and is indicating that American industry is no better positioned than the dismal European indices which say we are in an economic malaise.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.
World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

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