Aug 30 Eric Holder is trying to stop a school vouchers program in Louisiana that helps studious blacks with free vouchers to charter schools. To that, the WSJ reported that as we celebrate the 50th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech this week the irony is tragic. Governor Bobby Jindal said on Wednesday, “Whether due to their incompetence or ideology,” Holder and Obama would hurt minorities if they stop the charter school voucher system for minorities in Louisiana as the teacher’s union demand (apparently in return for their campaign contributions). This is another indication of government corruption as those in power loot America and make themselves and their families millionaires until they get caught like Jackson JR.

http://www.bobbyjindal.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=45&Itemid=65

Recent reports of increased US exports are not born out by the Bulk Trade reports. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Pavlovian conditioning is going on every day now as we near the likely dramatic end of this bull market. Free enterprise has a very natural way of assuring the survival of the fittest and the evolution of more and more intelligent and inventive business practices. Creative destruction is as far as humans have evolved and that was understood even at the time of Karl Marx and his followers who threw their wooden shoes (sabots) into the French knitting machines and invented the form of labor resistance called sabotage.
The stock price swings get bigger so that some unwary get conditioned because we always seem to recover most of the decline each day. Each day the hedge funds let the market creep up and then sell and sweep out most who are waiting to buy, but leave small gains to lure more the next day until the volume is too low. Sometimes when volume is low they stop selling and let the buyers come in so that the market recovers.

This is an important fact. The sign of the end of a bull market is when the volume picks up on declines and drops on advances. The opposite is true at the end of a bear market.

The market mavens may even cover some shorts where the market is very thin to jack the price back up to keep the public complacent. That is part of their art of short selling.

Then suddenly the hedge funds sense investor fear is setting in. That is the time they strike. They dump a load and cover some of it at the end of the day to take a profit because they want the lambs to keep coming and to only capitulate when they have already been skinned. And that could take a 50% to 60% drop in valuation before uninitiated give up completely having lost most of their savings. And the hedge funds then begin to tell their horrible stories and predictions of disaster because that is how they make their fortunes. That is the current state of the law of the stock market jungle. This behavior actually over time evolves a stronger economy and greater prosperity and is an important lesson to learn. To survive we need to educate ourselves and become fit.

For the past six months they had been spreading optimistic misinformation about Apple, HP, JCP, and other stocks and spread nice rumors that the companies would give holders massive dividends or buy back the shares of stock driving up the price. But that is turning negative. HP, JCP and soon uneducated Apple stockowners will likely begin capitulating again. This is the very last stage where stocks are so overpriced that the hedge funds seem to destroy the credibility of one entire market sector after they have sold it and pump up the sector they just bought into. There just is not enough cash available anymore to float all ships. And as the market declines the wealth of shareholders declines and they move to the sidelines. It is the opposite of what we have seen since 2009. The contraction has already hit China and the emerging markets and it exposes the excesses of too much debt, too high spending, quantitative easing, and vastly expanded entitlements for those only taking, incessantly complaining, and contributing nothing to society.
Aug 29 It appears the Obama administration erred again and compared unadjusted GDP this month with adjusted GDP last month. The inflation adjusted quarterly GDP level reported this month remained at a 1.7% annual rate.

How President Obama handles Syria will certainly affect the American safety and the economy. If Ronald Reagan had been President he would not have allowed Americans fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan for a full year much less much more than four years. The American Revolution only lasted from July 4, 1776 to August 19, 1780 when Cornwallis surrendered at Yorktown, VA. President Reagan pulled us out of Lebanon when our marines were bombed at their hotel. He sent F111 bombers into Libya personally attacking Kadaffi sleeping in his tent and scared the shit out of him. Then Kadaffi calmed down and stopped his terrorism. Obama should personally bomb the president of Syria but know full well that President Obama himself will always need personal protection if he saves American lives that way.

The main cause of poverty, any race, ethnic group, religion, or nationality, is the breakdown of the traditional core man-wife family dedicated to their children. Not one black Conservative or black member of the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln was invited to speak at the 50^th Anniversary of the march on Washington. That exclusionary attitude (or bigotry) may also be a precursor to, or indicator of the type of mental attitude that prevents people from being personally successful… because most black Conservative and black members of the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln are successful and they are systematically excluded and given no voice. It seems that Martin Luther King was fighting for inclusion of all people not exclusion. It is interesting that the event was funded by the Teacher’s Unions and none of the speakers said anything about the need for charter schools or standardized teaching standards and teacher competency tests all of which the unions oppose. Ignorance, negativism, and bigotry also correlate highly with poverty across all racial, religious, and ethnic groups.
Obama’s IRS continues to harass anti-Communist dissidents by not giving non-profit status to Tea Party non-profit corporations.

Aug 28 Now is the time when taking profits is drawing to a close. Many high fliers are already down 10% from their highs and people may soon start having to take losses. Soon the short sellers will begin again in earnest. Then all the advisors and news media will be fashionably negative and say they warned you. Then the panic begins stock by stock. Then when the rebound a bit you know the short sellers took their first profit and now they have a lot more money so they jump on another stock and drive that down. It takes a while because some stocks are heavily held long by institutions and they hold out longer and don’t decline as much. The stocks bounce each time shorts cover themselves but it is not over until the shorts liquidate and begin to buy the bargains again. A correction can take a month but the end of a long run-up could take over a year to run all the way back down.
Look at what happened after 9-11 and again in Obama’s first term. The bull market highs and bear market lows seem to be range limited and we are at the bull market range limit and seem to be declining. If that continues this decline or the next one could be 50% not 10%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

Did Iraq ship their poison gas to Syria? Is that where the poison gas went that Saddam Hussein produced to kill his minority tribes? If not, who gave Syria that internationally forbidden weapon?

LDK Solar Co., the second-largest maker of solar wafers, declined 11% after announcing that sales fell 51 percent and the company announced it wouldn’t make a payment due on its bond today
.
Based on what people say Warren Buffet has in his portfolio he is up significantly for the last six months but he is down about 4% over the last three months.

If you want to preserve your country and its culture of liberty and the opportunity for honest people to use their full potential… then you may be called a racist in Britain and elsewhere.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/RWcVguB0GaY

Aug 27 Bloomberg warned on Monday that stock valuations last climbed this fast in the final year of the 1990s technology bubble, just before the index began a 49 percent tumble. The rally that started in March 2009 has now outlasted the average gain since 1946. We now have had a run up in prices for a period longer than average. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square announced it sold its entire stake, 39.1 million shares, in J.C. Penney, seeing the broader markets poised for a breakdown of lower resistance levels. They chose the loss of about $470 million now rather risk a potential 15% to 40% decline of the entire market. J.C. Penney shares dropped 5 percent in after-hours trade before paring some losses.

Volume on all the exchanges has been declining sharply as sky high prices are demanded for shares. A PE of 15.7 means you may see 6% per annum appreciation if the stock consistently goes up and the earnings continually grow at 6% per annum. But if the economy is going nowhere for seven years as is the case under Obama, and we are told the true PE is only 15.7 we are obviously being deceived. The reason their logic is wrong when they say the PE has a long way to increase before the bull market is over is because average corporate earnings go negative as well as positive. And when it switches from negative to positive we see the rate of change in earnings accelerating and earnings must overshoot by as much as they undershoot during the contractions. That is why you cannot use projected earnings when there is no economic growth because average earnings cannot grow when there is no economic growth and therefore there is no overshooting of a zero net increase. Therefore we can only see overshoots and undershoots due to manipulation of the balance sheets and with write-offs and preposterous non-recurring exclusions of losses.

Or in the case of China, there is virtually no world bulk trade and that means there has been no real growth of China for more than two years so their 7% growth is entirely inflated money supply and fake sales and export data. And in addition to fake economic reports they produce fake or counterfeit products. This is a socialist fact of life and has been going on for years and is only getting worse.
http://futuremoneytrends.com/blog/?p=5146
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/03/14/the-10-most-counterfeited-products-sold-in-america/

And so the NYSE sits at the highs of 2000 and 2007 because the American economy today at its highest point since Obama took office is no better than it was under Bush or when Obama took office. We are in Obama’s lost decade. In fact personal income has peaked and most middle class Americans are now becoming poorer. Yes the population is growing but the poor are reproducing faster with 70% or more out of wedlock and more likely to drop out of high school than to complete it.

And fewer than 50% of mostly average middle class students who start college complete it.

Remember that if a company pays out all income in dividends then it is not reinvesting in itself. They cannot have their cake and eat it too. The reason stock prices are so high is because the cost of debt was so low that essentially companies have been borrowing against their future to make payouts to shareholders and putting the corporations at default risks if money market rates hit 16% as they did under Jimmy Carter. Because then corporations will go broke just as Detroit and Cyprus did.

Beware of large international banks. Obama is in the process of suing the big banks to break them up.

Aug 26 One technique that technical analysts use to confirm the direction of the trend is to determine whether the MACD indicator is making higher highs or lower lows in conjunction with the price. David Keller said "We saw a bearish divergence between the S&P 500 and the MACD indicator, with higher highs in the S&P and lower peaks in the MACD," observes. Many traders wait for a "trigger," or some sort of confirmation of the divergence. Keller notes that, "S&P's breaking down through recent swing lows, a lower high in price, and the MACD's breaking the zero level all could serve as valid sell triggers." This actually just occurred on both the weekly and daily charts.

David Keller, CMT, president of the Market Technicians Association will be speaking live at the Seattle Traders' Summit on Tuesday.

Goldman Sacks last week erroneously sent thousands of orders for options contracts to exchanges operated by NYSE Euronet, Nasdaq OMX and the CBOE. The faulty orders roiled options markets in the opening 17 minutes of the day's trading and sparked an investigation.

Google unveiled its Chromecast dongle that promises to make streaming Internet video a cinch. And at about $35 it's significantly cheaper than the Apple TV with its AirPlay feature at about $100.

A few years ago Donald Trump tried to start a Donald Trump University but was politically harassed so much but regulators opposed to a university based on free enterprise while he was trying to be certified that he gave up and shut it down. Today, years later, it was announced that Donald Trump is being harassed further. Besides his losses, the elected democrat NY prosecutor is now suing for the amount of money students paid while the school was pursuing certification. This means the taxpayers of New York will have to pay the cost of socialist harassment of one of America’s well known entrepreneurs who is an outspoken critic of the corrupt national political machine. The socialist principles of spying on and the socialist injustice of harassing political dissidents are now out in the open. Now they are using taxpayer money to harass dissidents like Donald Trump who support the principles of American liberty and pursuit of justice with a proposed new university to teach free enterprise principles.

Jim Cramer finally is saying we have to wake up and smell the coffee.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

Inflation and higher interest rates started two months ago in Brazil and Indonesia. Inflation in Brazil rose about 1.5% from the lows to 6.5% and in Indonesia it has risen about 4.5% to 9%. The higher rates coincide with the steep declines in their markets.

Bad loans in China are beginning to create a crisis.
Syria’s leaders need to be crushed and tried for the worst example of genocide since Pol Pot of Cambodia.

The Chinese and the Obama administration have both been lying in order not to frighten people but world bulk trade and rail shipments show no sign of any recovery much less real growth anywhere in the world. Corporate cannibalism has passed as growth. And temps and part time workers are replacing full time workers.

Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing. Obama is the first American to use QE to suppress the interest rates on national debt to allow America to take on debt until the economy collapses when as Greenspan predicted the market will force up interest rates in spite of QE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell signal after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI

The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

　
American Economy
Economists are expecting to see the 10-year Treasury yield go over 3 percent before September is over. That in turn would push mortgage rates higher. Interest rates are now rising at a rate of 1% every three months.

Aug 26
Durable Orders Jul -7.3% sharply lower than last month’s 4.2% ----
This means exports of commercial aircraft, trucking, boat and rail equipment is down sharply. That hurts the balance of trade and indicates an international slowdown is gaining momentum again.
Durable Goods -ex transportation Jul -0.6% lower as well from -0.1% --

Aug 27
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jun 12.1% unchanged from 12.2% -
Consumer Confidence Aug 81.5 up slightly 81.0----
It was 60% higher ten years ago.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment

Aug 28
MBA Mortgage Index 08/24 -2.5% down more again -4.6% ---
Pending Home Sales Jul -1.3% down much more again -0.4% ----
Crude Inventories 08/24 2.986M good increase -1.428M

Aug 29
Initial Claims 08/24 331K down slightly from 336K ++
Continuing Claims 08/17 2989K down slightly from 2999K ++
GDP - Second Estimate Q2 2.5% another error or outlier 1.7% -
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q2 0.8% close to the last time’s 0.7%. That wipes out a third of the GDP leaving it at 1.7% (2.5 –0.8). It appears they compared unadjusted GDP this month with adjusted GDP last month.

Aug 30
Personal Income Jul 0.1% declined from 0.3% ---
Personal Spending Jul 0.1% declined from 0.6% ----
PCE Prices - Core Jul 0.1% inflation slowed from 0.2% --

The Markets Aug 30, 2013
The WSJ reported, "Here Comes the Unaffordable Careless Act. Small businesses won't grow, and more employees will work fewer hours. That's just for starters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324009304579040800967897382.html

The WSJ reported Thursday that small business car repair shop owners are more optimistic now. They report that customers are now more receptive to major repairs than in the past. This may not be a good indicator for the American economy as the WSJ writer suggests. The greater repairs may just mean the owners are holding their old cars even longer.

The large jump in GDP estimate looks like a problem with the competency of the government report generators. It appears they compared unadjusted GDP this month with adjusted GDP last month… possibly intentionally because it looks pretty obviously an outlier that should have been caught. We have to see how they make the next report.

It is time to re-think your strategy and to be wary.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/time-to-buy-the-dip-in-stocks-be-wary-cm269925

The lows are being tested and soon we think the selling will cascade as big investors like Bill Ackman first dump their holdings and then when the selling really starts they begin to sell stocks short. The stocks drop like falling knives then bounce when the shorts are covered. But bullish investor wealth declines so fast, the stocks fall again even further and finally the short sellers begin to buy again. Remember that from the day Obama won the nomination in October 2008 until the low point was a drop of more than 50%.

The stock market decline slowly accelerates as short sellers grow profits, and cover, and then short a different stock that has not declined much. During a decline much of the shorting is automated to rotate out of the stocks that meet target declines and into shorting the stocks with a longer way to go. It becomes a frenzy but many stocks will be bargains again when they are 20% to 40% cheaper. The real threat is that Obama’s socialist waste will cause an economic depression. We need to remember that the end product of socialism is that everyone shares poverty and misery. If you do something good like try to start a Trump seminar school to teach people to be entrepreneurs your head sticks out above the crowd and the socialists attack and try to destroy you.
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Massive-wealth-destruction-economy/2013/06/20/id/511043/?promo_code=13E5C-1&utm_source=taboola

The Dow and NYSE hit a peaks shortly after our sell signal. The probability is growing that the stock market probably will not see a significantly new high for about four to six years. Jimmy Carter had a sideways market movement with his lost decade of in the 1970’s. We are now in Obama’s lost decade.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s peak so it is possible to get out before the plunge.

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

The VIX indicates extreme complacency with the worst about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia