Thursday, August 1, 2013

Aug 2 Privacy is at risk not just from the government. A new study from app analysis firm Appthority finds 95% of top free applications spy on users and can leak private Data. Such activity could be used to plant routines to shut down communication during a crisis similar to how Iranian nuclear centrifuges were sabotaged. It is conceivable that home and business security systems could also then be hacked and sabotaged allowing access to other equipment, assets, and files. It is conceivable that the Obama government could also exploit these private security breaches.

UPS CEO Scott Davis weighed in on the state of the U.S. economy Thursday saying that a lack of clarity on fiscal and tax policy from Washington, D.C. is still crippling the economy.

World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

Thursday, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi suggested the euro region is past the worst after euro-area manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in July for the first time in two years.

U.S. crude oil prices surged 2.8% on Thursday with no significant increase in demand. Banks are now speculating with investments in materials inventories as new tax avoidance loopholes are exploited.

While the Obama Depression started with a sharp market drop the day after he was elected in 2008 and has now gone on for five years the economic damage of socialism has advanced even faster in Western Europe with the exception of Germany and Switzerland.

The German market has begun to form the second shoulder of the Head and Shoulder sell formation after failing to reach its last high. It also failed its upper resistance level reached previously in 2000 and 2007.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFCHI#symbol=^fchi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Kenya is one of the strongest socialist countries in Africa and the situation is far worse. Kenya now has little room left to stimulate the economy further by cutting interest rates further this year as the inflation outlook for East Africa’s biggest economy further deteriorates, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said Monday. The benchmark interest rate has been cut by 9.5 percentage points since the easing cycle began last year and sits at 8.5 percent this month. "There is very little room if any left for more monetary easing because inflation is already picking up," Rotich said in an interview today in the capital, Nairobi. Annual inflation is already at 4.9 during the recession according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. New taxes only fan inflation, according to Deloitte.

The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#symbol=^ssmi;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The NYSE is similar to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of 15% inflation since then and no similar market advance. The NYSE index is too big to manipulate legally. It has 300 stocks just starting with the letter A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

American Economy
Jul 29
Pending Home Sales Jun -0.4% down sharply from 6.7% ----

Jul 30
Case-Shiller 20-city Index May 12.2% virtually unchanged from 12.1% -

Consumer Confidence Jul 80.3 down from 81.4 --

Jul 31
MBA Mortgage Index 07/27 -3.7% sharply lower from -1.2% --

ADP Employment Change Jul 200K up from188K --

GDP-Adv. Q2 1.7% -down from 1.8% -

Employment (*US labor) Cost Index Q2 0.5% inc from 0.3% --

Chicago PMI Jul 52.3 improved drom 51.6 +

Crude Inventories 07/27 0.431M improved from -2.825M +

FOMC Rate Decision Jul 0.25% 0no change from 0.25%

Aug 1
Challenger Job Cuts Jul 2.3% down from 4.8% +

Initial Claims 07/27 326K down from 343K +

Continuing Claims 07/20 2951K down from 2997K +

ISM Index Jul 55.4 up from 50.9 ++

Construction Spending Jun -0.6% down sharply from 0.5% ----

Natural Gas Inventories 07/27 59 bcf up from 41 bcf +

Aug 2
Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 162K declinedfrom 195K ---

Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul 161K down sharply from 202K ---

Unemployment Rate Jul 7.4% unchanged other than by excclusion of data 7.6% -

Hourly Earnings Jul fell -0.1% -

Average Workweek Jul 34.4 down from 34.5 -

Personal Income Jun 0.3% down from 0.5%

Personal Spending Jun 0.5% up from 0.3%

PCE Prices - Core Jun 0.2% up from0.1% -

Factory Orders Jun 1.5% down from 2.1% --

The Markets Aug 2, 2013
The US debt limit could be reached Oct. 11, the last day Congress is in session before a Columbus Day recess.

The broader US indices that are difficult to manipulate are no better positioned than the dismal European indices. The USA has three manipulated indices the worst being the DJI avg. which is based on only 60 carefully selected stocks which is quoted now at what looks to be the end of this bull market. The NYSE is a broader and hence more difficult American index to manipulate.

We got our market cash flow sell signal July 8. About half the time it happens near the start of the stock market’s last-gasp rally so it is possible to get out before the plunge.

World trade has been dead for four years (flat lined). Look at the last 5 years! It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Earnings have stagnated and do not support current prices.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=div_earns_payout

The VIX indicates the worst is about to come. The VIX would normally top out above 30 or even 70 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

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