Friday, July 31, 2009
Countdown is seven business days
Either this rally will end soon (ie within 7 business days)or we may not get the usual summer decine. We will return Aug 10 after 5 business days and give you the score. The odds are that the summer bear will be out ravaging the stock market by August 13. This is the time to trade. Shorting is not safe but take profits and buy good trending stocks after the funds dump them.
GE declared alive and doing well
We will not post again until August 10.
Goldman Sachs just upgraded the industrial conglomerate to "Buy," saying it won't have to split off its financing arm, GE Capital. General Electric rose 85 cents at $13.11. That means they think GE is now completely solvent. If true GE could easily double in price within a month assuming the market holds up.
GE money also just announced it extended its consumer credit card program partnership with Walmart. GE Money Retail Consumer Finance, a consumer lending unit of General Electric Company announced the Walmart credit card program for Walmart stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, and on the web has just grown to include store and co-branded consumer credit cards and commercial and community cards.
“GE Money has been a valued partner in helping us provide more ways for our customers to save in our stores and online,” said Jane Thompson, president of Walmart Financial Services. “We look forward to working together to provide even better value and services for our customers.”
The Walmart consumer card program provides cardholders with convenience and security, including:
no annual fee
up to 1 percent cash back on the Walmart co-branded dual card
3 cents discount per gallon on gas at participating Walmart and Murphy gas stations
12-month special financing offers
$0 fraud liability
flexibility to choose the monthly payment due date
cash back at the register, up to $100
“We are excited to extend our 10-year relationship with Walmart for an additional six years and to continue providing credit to consumers, especially in these challenging economic times,” said Margaret Keane, president and CEO of GE Money Retail Consumer Finance. “We look forward to working with the entire Walmart team to help serve millions of customers across America.”
In addition to the Walmart consumer and commercial credit programs, GE is also the banking partner with Walmart on the Walmart MoneyCard, a leading co-branded prepaid reloadable Visa debit card in partnership with Green Dot Corporation.
GE Money’s Retail Consumer Finance is one of the most successful retail credit providers with more than $30 billion in assets and over 40 million account holders. The business unit provides private label credit card programs, bankcards, and financial services. GE serves customers in more than 100 countries and employs more than 300,000 people worldwide.
GE is in a particularly lucrative position as the owner of GE/MSNBC/Pravda which gives corrupt American politicians $billions in free continuous lobbing support and well as campaign attacks on anyone interested in American free enterprise or government fiscal responsibility. MSNBC ridicules those who expose Senate Banking Committee Socialists who bankrupted mortgage lenders and guarantee companies with their continuing policy of, "Everyone who wants a home deserves one so don't ask questions even if you think the applicant is on welfare." This corrupting socialist policy continues to this day and both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will get annual bailouts with taxpayer money as long as the corrupt politicians get re-elected. They gave non-taxpayers more than $100billion in mortgage default losses last year. But hey, that’s one way for GE to make a lot of money… in the collapse of the US economy! Money is made both in the rise and the fall of nations. GE stock is going to soar now as long as it controls the Nationalist Socialist Democratic Party (NSDP) propaganda machine GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels.
Market forces July 30
The communist and socialist nations support the bankruptcy of the USA as a way of destroying worldwide free enterprise and individual freedom and establishing a world socialist state without a war. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) will be accomplished without a launch of a single nuclear weapon. They are acting like a big credit card company extending credit until the debt payments are unmanageable and then they will raise the interest rates and bankrupt Obama's Socialist States of America and bring freedom all around the world to its knees.
The U.S. Treasury Department just sold $28 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday, with vast majority of the bonds sold coming in near the high price (good Communist China terms), a sign that Communist and Socialist support of American bankruptcy this record amount of government debt is holding up well.
Thursday’s auction culminates this week’s $117 billion in bond auctions. Foreign government and institutional participation in the auction was a record 62.5%, the Treasury Department said, the best participation by foreign parties.
The Treasury said it sold the notes with at a yield of 3.369%, with 91.73% being sold at the high price. The bid-to-cover ratio, a sign of demand for the security, was 2.63 -- better than the average 2.40 ratio for the product. The 91.73% shows that the Communists are now more organized that when we reported the earlier sales this week. When they reach 100% we will know the Communist coalition is in complete control of American debt.
Traders had expressed worry in recent months that the flood of debt being poured onto the market, with each auction increasing to a record amount, could push yields higher. But that will not happen until we have "debt critical mass" such that even the rate increase will be impossible to pay, much less the outstanding debt. At that point the American Obama Democrat Socialists can declare total victory for government controlling every aspect of America from cradle to the grave. When they have taxed everything you made and redistributed it you are just a political threat. Yes then they will tell you old folks when it is time to drink the cool aide and die quietly for your country to get rid of your vote. In Chicago all dead people vote for the Democrat Socialists and so will you.
Treasury will auction the 10-year notes and 30-year bonds in two weeks, which will be another key test of whether the communists are willing to buy more long-term debt, especially with chatter about inflation in coming years.
Today the GDP will be reported lower for the quarter for the third straight quarter. That means we are still in the recession. How far it falls will say whether or not the recession is slowing. Housing is not yet recovering. The defaulted housing is what is moving the sales upward.
In summary, the availability of this money stimulates the economy by inflating the debt bubble. All the loose cash will support stock prices. But the next day of reckoning will be when the socialists and communists call American debt.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time.
If you have been buying stocks like GE, real estate, energy, precious metals, etc when they were low you are finding you have some big profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were up: communist China up +2.7%, socialist Japan up +1.9%, and socialist India up +1.8%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are flat in a range of -1.1% to +0.7% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a lower USA market opening this morning.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. For instant stocks that have gapped up and rose sharply often drop down to close the gap. A gap is when a stock opens much higher than at any time the previous day.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite. Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan.
Goldman Sachs just upgraded the industrial conglomerate to "Buy," saying it won't have to split off its financing arm, GE Capital. General Electric rose 85 cents at $13.11. That means they think GE is now completely solvent. If true GE could easily double in price within a month assuming the market holds up.
GE money also just announced it extended its consumer credit card program partnership with Walmart. GE Money Retail Consumer Finance, a consumer lending unit of General Electric Company announced the Walmart credit card program for Walmart stores in the United States and Puerto Rico, and on the web has just grown to include store and co-branded consumer credit cards and commercial and community cards.
“GE Money has been a valued partner in helping us provide more ways for our customers to save in our stores and online,” said Jane Thompson, president of Walmart Financial Services. “We look forward to working together to provide even better value and services for our customers.”
The Walmart consumer card program provides cardholders with convenience and security, including:
no annual fee
up to 1 percent cash back on the Walmart co-branded dual card
3 cents discount per gallon on gas at participating Walmart and Murphy gas stations
12-month special financing offers
$0 fraud liability
flexibility to choose the monthly payment due date
cash back at the register, up to $100
“We are excited to extend our 10-year relationship with Walmart for an additional six years and to continue providing credit to consumers, especially in these challenging economic times,” said Margaret Keane, president and CEO of GE Money Retail Consumer Finance. “We look forward to working with the entire Walmart team to help serve millions of customers across America.”
In addition to the Walmart consumer and commercial credit programs, GE is also the banking partner with Walmart on the Walmart MoneyCard, a leading co-branded prepaid reloadable Visa debit card in partnership with Green Dot Corporation.
GE Money’s Retail Consumer Finance is one of the most successful retail credit providers with more than $30 billion in assets and over 40 million account holders. The business unit provides private label credit card programs, bankcards, and financial services. GE serves customers in more than 100 countries and employs more than 300,000 people worldwide.
GE is in a particularly lucrative position as the owner of GE/MSNBC/Pravda which gives corrupt American politicians $billions in free continuous lobbing support and well as campaign attacks on anyone interested in American free enterprise or government fiscal responsibility. MSNBC ridicules those who expose Senate Banking Committee Socialists who bankrupted mortgage lenders and guarantee companies with their continuing policy of, "Everyone who wants a home deserves one so don't ask questions even if you think the applicant is on welfare." This corrupting socialist policy continues to this day and both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will get annual bailouts with taxpayer money as long as the corrupt politicians get re-elected. They gave non-taxpayers more than $100billion in mortgage default losses last year. But hey, that’s one way for GE to make a lot of money… in the collapse of the US economy! Money is made both in the rise and the fall of nations. GE stock is going to soar now as long as it controls the Nationalist Socialist Democratic Party (NSDP) propaganda machine GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels.
Market forces July 30
The communist and socialist nations support the bankruptcy of the USA as a way of destroying worldwide free enterprise and individual freedom and establishing a world socialist state without a war. MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) will be accomplished without a launch of a single nuclear weapon. They are acting like a big credit card company extending credit until the debt payments are unmanageable and then they will raise the interest rates and bankrupt Obama's Socialist States of America and bring freedom all around the world to its knees.
The U.S. Treasury Department just sold $28 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday, with vast majority of the bonds sold coming in near the high price (good Communist China terms), a sign that Communist and Socialist support of American bankruptcy this record amount of government debt is holding up well.
Thursday’s auction culminates this week’s $117 billion in bond auctions. Foreign government and institutional participation in the auction was a record 62.5%, the Treasury Department said, the best participation by foreign parties.
The Treasury said it sold the notes with at a yield of 3.369%, with 91.73% being sold at the high price. The bid-to-cover ratio, a sign of demand for the security, was 2.63 -- better than the average 2.40 ratio for the product. The 91.73% shows that the Communists are now more organized that when we reported the earlier sales this week. When they reach 100% we will know the Communist coalition is in complete control of American debt.
Traders had expressed worry in recent months that the flood of debt being poured onto the market, with each auction increasing to a record amount, could push yields higher. But that will not happen until we have "debt critical mass" such that even the rate increase will be impossible to pay, much less the outstanding debt. At that point the American Obama Democrat Socialists can declare total victory for government controlling every aspect of America from cradle to the grave. When they have taxed everything you made and redistributed it you are just a political threat. Yes then they will tell you old folks when it is time to drink the cool aide and die quietly for your country to get rid of your vote. In Chicago all dead people vote for the Democrat Socialists and so will you.
Treasury will auction the 10-year notes and 30-year bonds in two weeks, which will be another key test of whether the communists are willing to buy more long-term debt, especially with chatter about inflation in coming years.
Today the GDP will be reported lower for the quarter for the third straight quarter. That means we are still in the recession. How far it falls will say whether or not the recession is slowing. Housing is not yet recovering. The defaulted housing is what is moving the sales upward.
In summary, the availability of this money stimulates the economy by inflating the debt bubble. All the loose cash will support stock prices. But the next day of reckoning will be when the socialists and communists call American debt.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it would be unusual not to have a sharp sell off panic from time to time.
If you have been buying stocks like GE, real estate, energy, precious metals, etc when they were low you are finding you have some big profits now. You need to consider selling them (or enough to capture just their costs) if you do not want to lose capital when the next market panic occurs.
Last night Asian markets were up: communist China up +2.7%, socialist Japan up +1.9%, and socialist India up +1.8%.
Today most of the socialist European markets are flat in a range of -1.1% to +0.7% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a lower USA market opening this morning.
Anticipate a panic spike down any time now as a buying opportunity. For instant stocks that have gapped up and rose sharply often drop down to close the gap. A gap is when a stock opens much higher than at any time the previous day.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and now also out of the market rotating before or when the funds rotate through the sectors. We expect the decline will be a typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. The advances will be similar but opposite. Investing time is now compressed and hence investing requires more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect health care stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Treasury auctions weaken
Healthcare will get the Obama kiss of death if congress passes the present bill. Look what Obama has already done to the solar, windmill, and automobile industries. In America they are dying but the socialist/communist nations are glad to pick up all the business Obama is sending them. Except they do not like Obama taking their money to give contracts to Obama supporters.
Market forces July 29
The auction for $39 billion in 5-year notes had unexpectedly weak results on Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Department sold $39 billion in 5-year notes with China demanding a high rate of 2.689%. Thirty one percent of the bidders submitted the high bid indicating they are uniting now to pressure the USA. The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, came in at a record weak level under 2.0. The 5-year note auction was the second of three auctions the Treasury Department is auctioning this week, culminating today with an auction of 7-year bonds. The $39 billion in notes was the largest auction of 5-years in the security's history, breaking last month’s record of $37 billion. This diverts billions from the productive private sector to the non-productive socialist programs.
“There was already nervousness going into today’s auction and with the poor result, tomorrow should be quite interesting,” said Dan Greenhaus yesterday, market strategist with the brokerage firm Miller Tabak.
Next week, the market may be tested again when the Treasury Department sets new records with auctions 10-year and 30-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Debt is unrelenting because as debt increases American risk of hyperinflation increases causing interest rates to rise thus raising the costs of doing business in America and the cost of the Federal debt. That alone raises the inflation rate and the spiral of increasing debt gets worse.
A quote for today:
"Biting A Bullet by John P. Hussman,
In recent weeks, the dominant view of investors and analysts has shifted clearly to the expectation that the U.S. economy is in recovery. Put another way, the case for an economic recovery is based largely on mean reversion from the early 2009 extremes (not on improvements in jobless claims or other measures to a level that is on par with prior recoveries). The recovery argument also relies strongly on the idea that this is a run-of-the-mill post-war recession.
That said, I can only describe our investment stance here as “uncomfortably defensive.”
Our defensive stance here is driven by a combination of poor price-volume sponsorship, moderate overvaluation, strenuous overbought conditions, Treasury yield and commodity price pressures, as well as a variety of other factors that have historically combined to produce a weak overall return-to-risk tradeoff. Moreover, from a fundamental standpoint, the ebullience about an economic recovery is based on what I've frequently called the “ebb and flow” of short-term economic information that very well can turn hostile again – particularly given that there is no reason to assume that deleveraging pressures have seriously abated. "
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it would be unusual not to have the typical summer sell off.
Instead of selling individual stocks, when stocks are fairly valued across a sector the hedge funds now tend to sell the most overbought sectors in the morning and then use that money buying the oversold sectors in the afternoon. Therefore the index does not change much but individual investors get clobbered. We think investors will do better if they trend the sectors now and buy after the hedge funds attack a sector not latter when optimistic investors push it to new highs. Also don't believe anyone (such as Cramer) who are tied to the hedge funds. They want you to drive up prices on their own investments so they can sell at a good profit. That is called, "pump and dump" in their trade. Instead we make a note of the sectors they say they do not like and buy them near their lower trend line.
Health care stocks are presently being pumped by GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels. We take as a warning that hedge fund shorting of that sector will soon begin. Jim Cramer is a hedge fund alumnus so he is good to watch as long as you know the roll he plays.
Last night Asian markets were up: Hong Kong up 0.5%, Japan up 0.5%, and India up 1.4%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of +0.7% to +1.4% half way through their session.
US futures indicate about a +0.7% USA market opening this morning.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and sometimes out of the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. It will be as though time was compressed and hence investing will require more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect those stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan.
Market forces July 29
The auction for $39 billion in 5-year notes had unexpectedly weak results on Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Department sold $39 billion in 5-year notes with China demanding a high rate of 2.689%. Thirty one percent of the bidders submitted the high bid indicating they are uniting now to pressure the USA. The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, came in at a record weak level under 2.0. The 5-year note auction was the second of three auctions the Treasury Department is auctioning this week, culminating today with an auction of 7-year bonds. The $39 billion in notes was the largest auction of 5-years in the security's history, breaking last month’s record of $37 billion. This diverts billions from the productive private sector to the non-productive socialist programs.
“There was already nervousness going into today’s auction and with the poor result, tomorrow should be quite interesting,” said Dan Greenhaus yesterday, market strategist with the brokerage firm Miller Tabak.
Next week, the market may be tested again when the Treasury Department sets new records with auctions 10-year and 30-year bonds on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Debt is unrelenting because as debt increases American risk of hyperinflation increases causing interest rates to rise thus raising the costs of doing business in America and the cost of the Federal debt. That alone raises the inflation rate and the spiral of increasing debt gets worse.
A quote for today:
"Biting A Bullet by John P. Hussman,
In recent weeks, the dominant view of investors and analysts has shifted clearly to the expectation that the U.S. economy is in recovery. Put another way, the case for an economic recovery is based largely on mean reversion from the early 2009 extremes (not on improvements in jobless claims or other measures to a level that is on par with prior recoveries). The recovery argument also relies strongly on the idea that this is a run-of-the-mill post-war recession.
That said, I can only describe our investment stance here as “uncomfortably defensive.”
Our defensive stance here is driven by a combination of poor price-volume sponsorship, moderate overvaluation, strenuous overbought conditions, Treasury yield and commodity price pressures, as well as a variety of other factors that have historically combined to produce a weak overall return-to-risk tradeoff. Moreover, from a fundamental standpoint, the ebullience about an economic recovery is based on what I've frequently called the “ebb and flow” of short-term economic information that very well can turn hostile again – particularly given that there is no reason to assume that deleveraging pressures have seriously abated. "
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits. This may very well be a consolidation period not a distribution period. That means that the sharp drops in some sectors may be funds cleaning out the sellers. But it would be unusual not to have the typical summer sell off.
Instead of selling individual stocks, when stocks are fairly valued across a sector the hedge funds now tend to sell the most overbought sectors in the morning and then use that money buying the oversold sectors in the afternoon. Therefore the index does not change much but individual investors get clobbered. We think investors will do better if they trend the sectors now and buy after the hedge funds attack a sector not latter when optimistic investors push it to new highs. Also don't believe anyone (such as Cramer) who are tied to the hedge funds. They want you to drive up prices on their own investments so they can sell at a good profit. That is called, "pump and dump" in their trade. Instead we make a note of the sectors they say they do not like and buy them near their lower trend line.
Health care stocks are presently being pumped by GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels. We take as a warning that hedge fund shorting of that sector will soon begin. Jim Cramer is a hedge fund alumnus so he is good to watch as long as you know the roll he plays.
Last night Asian markets were up: Hong Kong up 0.5%, Japan up 0.5%, and India up 1.4%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of +0.7% to +1.4% half way through their session.
US futures indicate about a +0.7% USA market opening this morning.
We will continue cherry picking mostly into and sometimes out of the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks/sectors while other stocks/sectors bottom out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. It will be as though time was compressed and hence investing will require more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration seemingly destroys every free market sector they touch. Hedge funds seem to be betting that the Obama bill fails. But if his socialized medicine passes in any form whatsoever we expect those stocks to implode as they did when Obama first announced his plan.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Socialist welfare healthcare to get the Obama kiss of death
Health care stocks have sky rocketed because investors think the Obama health care bill is dead. But that bill will rise again in congress in about a month. Then Obama welfare healthcare will not only be more expensive; it will destroy the current healthcare industry in America and stocks prices will react.
Market forces July 28
Summer is the prime house buying time for families because they can enroll in the new school system. So sales and prices normally go up in June and July. Therefore you are supposed to compare year to year changes for each month for the truth (seasonally adjusted). GE/MSNBC/Pravda compared month to month and said the gain was real. Then they lied and said that the correct way was the wrong way. So in reality the economic news continues to be grim but GE/MSNBC/Pravda lie and spin the news just as they lie and spin the news about the Obama administration.
Fannie and Ginnie May continue to provide the don't tell/don't ask fraudulent bad loans that the Senate Banking Committee (Rangel and Dodd) forced down the bank's throats that is the corrupt government practice that raise mortgage investment risks from under 1% to over 5% and broke all the world banks. With a 1% risk level a 20:1 bank leverage has 400% safety margin. With 5% risk a 20:1 bank leverage means financial collapse. Wall Street and the banks created cheap derivative mortgage products that did not consider the socialist entitlement that welfare recipients now have to houses. Reports are that those don't ask if they don't tell loans are still being made to unqualified mortgage applicants.
Therefore while a correction is in order, we have resumed the drunken binge of 2005 and we have a bubble already starting in this bear market. So we expect frequent and large market swings. However if you look at the data carefully you will see that the traders are selective and hit fewer stocks but much harder such that the index averages do not change as much. They are doing it by index sectors. Psychologically rotating index sector sell-offs hurt the long-term investor who is often devastated and sells at the wrong time. Right now it is the insiders vs. the investors and the insiders are winning.
But don't think you can profit by buying their funds. Those hedge fund managers report large gains but then take all the extra money for their own bonuses. You the shareholder get close to nothing. We need to understand what they do. It creates an investment opportunity to investors who can ignore GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels lies and use trending to buy in at the bottom just before the hedge funds switch from shorting a sector to buying the sector.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits. We think investors will do better if they trend sectors now and buy after the hedge funds attack a sector not when optimistic investors push it to new highs. That seems to be what the funds are doing.
Health care stocks are presently being pumped by GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels so that we take as a warning that hedge fund shorting of that sector will soon begin. Jim Cramer is a hedge fund stooge so he is good to watch as long as you know the roll he plays.
Last night Asian markets were down sharply: China down 5%, Hong Kong down 2.4%, Japan up 0.2%, and India down 1%.
Today most European markets are undecided in a range of -1% to +1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate about a -0.5% USA market opening this morning.
We will continue cherry picking into and out of the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks while other stocks flatten out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. It will be as though time was compressed and hence investing will require more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Why is it that congress and federal employees would get better health care than what they give the rest of us? They are going to entitle another 40 million people who pay little in taxes. Why don’t they get to use your congressman's doctors and plan instead? Entitlements are already bankrupting social security and Medicare.
Market forces July 28
Summer is the prime house buying time for families because they can enroll in the new school system. So sales and prices normally go up in June and July. Therefore you are supposed to compare year to year changes for each month for the truth (seasonally adjusted). GE/MSNBC/Pravda compared month to month and said the gain was real. Then they lied and said that the correct way was the wrong way. So in reality the economic news continues to be grim but GE/MSNBC/Pravda lie and spin the news just as they lie and spin the news about the Obama administration.
Fannie and Ginnie May continue to provide the don't tell/don't ask fraudulent bad loans that the Senate Banking Committee (Rangel and Dodd) forced down the bank's throats that is the corrupt government practice that raise mortgage investment risks from under 1% to over 5% and broke all the world banks. With a 1% risk level a 20:1 bank leverage has 400% safety margin. With 5% risk a 20:1 bank leverage means financial collapse. Wall Street and the banks created cheap derivative mortgage products that did not consider the socialist entitlement that welfare recipients now have to houses. Reports are that those don't ask if they don't tell loans are still being made to unqualified mortgage applicants.
Therefore while a correction is in order, we have resumed the drunken binge of 2005 and we have a bubble already starting in this bear market. So we expect frequent and large market swings. However if you look at the data carefully you will see that the traders are selective and hit fewer stocks but much harder such that the index averages do not change as much. They are doing it by index sectors. Psychologically rotating index sector sell-offs hurt the long-term investor who is often devastated and sells at the wrong time. Right now it is the insiders vs. the investors and the insiders are winning.
But don't think you can profit by buying their funds. Those hedge fund managers report large gains but then take all the extra money for their own bonuses. You the shareholder get close to nothing. We need to understand what they do. It creates an investment opportunity to investors who can ignore GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels lies and use trending to buy in at the bottom just before the hedge funds switch from shorting a sector to buying the sector.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits. We think investors will do better if they trend sectors now and buy after the hedge funds attack a sector not when optimistic investors push it to new highs. That seems to be what the funds are doing.
Health care stocks are presently being pumped by GE/MSNBC/Pravda/Goerbels so that we take as a warning that hedge fund shorting of that sector will soon begin. Jim Cramer is a hedge fund stooge so he is good to watch as long as you know the roll he plays.
Last night Asian markets were down sharply: China down 5%, Hong Kong down 2.4%, Japan up 0.2%, and India down 1%.
Today most European markets are undecided in a range of -1% to +1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate about a -0.5% USA market opening this morning.
We will continue cherry picking into and out of the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks while other stocks flatten out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much smaller. It will be as though time was compressed and hence investing will require more trading skill. We watch the sectors carefully because hedge funds seem to deflate one sector at a time and then let investors pump them back into overbought territory. They can do that best during the kind of rallies we see in this sideways market.
The new socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Why is it that congress and federal employees would get better health care than what they give the rest of us? They are going to entitle another 40 million people who pay little in taxes. Why don’t they get to use your congressman's doctors and plan instead? Entitlements are already bankrupting social security and Medicare.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
GE is hiding losses
We resume our discussions this week.
One way of buying time when things are very bad is to recognize losses later, rather than sooner. Normally when the market is down and a stock is highly undervalued the management discloses all the losses it has hidden from when the “good times” were rolling. But when the stocks are down the management typically unloads the hidden losses by writing down good will, delinquent/late receipts, off-book debts, and other losses as one time events hoping that investors are foolish enough to believe them that they were not instead the result of manipulating profits and manipulating their bonus payouts. Any company that does this each business cycle is almost certainly intentionally defrauding shareholders. But many do it.
GE is under pressure to separate its industrial unit from its GE Capital financial division, as the Obama administration made clear in a white paper on regulatory reform that it wants to "re-affirm and strengthen" existing policies of separating banking and commerce. GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA is the Obama propaganda machine and depends on its government contracts to survive at this point. China is killing GE's former money making machines. For instance GE is being forced out of the light bulb market and the appliance market.
The above is basically what Barclays Capital analyst Robert Cornell concluded "GE was up to, following the release of its second-quarter earnings on July 17. As a result, when GE Capital reported fewer write-downs than Cornell had in his 2009 estimates, he merely added those hidden losses to his 2010 loss estimates."
"GE has raised suspicions among investors and analysts as it has reported relatively small losses in areas like real estate and consumer lending that have stung banks like Citigroup (C Quote) Bank of America(BAC Quote) JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote) and Wells Fargo (JPM Quote)."
While GE’s nearer term strategy appears to be to delay taking losses as long as possible, "Sterne Agee analyst Nick Heymann thinks GE will ultimately have to find a large deposit-taking institution to take a substantial stake in GE Capital. That will be an easier sell for GE if it has succeeded in its plan of shrinking the business. Otherwise, it may be too big for any institution to take on" – and GE could go the nationalization route of GM with a big Obama government buy-out. That would mean great pensions for the unions, and new government jobs or the corrupt GE managers. Socialist government politicians are historically highly adept in hiding the truth about national finances, losses, abominable public health, and their faked support from their impoverished masses. Just look at North Korea as the last stop in socialist tyranny. It is true that N Korea government officials own no property; they just live in the palaces paid for by their enslaved people. They don't need to own property themselves when they live like kings off their enslaved populations.
Socialist reverse racism is growing
Today poorer large American families are grateful and polite because they get care at clinics and hospitals with our current system. If they cannot pay the full price they don't. American hospital emergency wards cannot turn people away.
A new health care bill entitlement for 40 million Americans who today politely ask for medical assistance will very likely subject doctors, nurses and other Americans to the same racism and slander that the Boston police force received last week. We think President Obama's remarks and those of the Harvard professor were racist and distasteful. That professor believed he had a right (or entitlement) to slander a police officer. We don't believe anyone has a right to maliciously slander a fellow American much less an officer of the law. We believe the socialist health care bill in Congress will lead to many more false, malicious, and obnoxious assaults on health care providers as well as other Americans sitting in health care office waiting rooms. The President sets that bad example and encouraged it with his recent Freudian slip where he said that a highly respected Boston officer "behaved stupidly" for requesting photo identity of a Harvard professor who “stupidly” forgot his key and was reported breaking into his own house. How was the officer to know he was the owner? And if he was not the owner, the officer would have been accused of racism and dereliction of duty for not request photo identification. It was not the officer who behaved stupidly it was the black Harvard professor who behaved stupidly, obnoxiously, and with racism dripping off his lips.
We know America currently has the best health care system in the world. No socialist country provides the good care Americans receive. Their costs are lower because they provide a lot less and depend on America to pay for most of the world's advancements in treatments and pharmaceuticals. The bill in congress will entitle and unleash 40 million more people to abuse doctors and nurses because they think it entitles them to do what that racist Harvard professor and Obama did last week.
Market forces July 27
The market has hit an overbought condition over the past week. The buying opportunity is continuing on market pull-backs. Energy/oil, and precious metal commodities recently had buying opportunities and their pro-shares are now up substantially. We are seeing evidence that the housing market is nearing its bottom so it is much more attractive on pull backs. However the big RE companies running the shopping malls are being killed by vacancies. They are currently at highly inflated prices.
The high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios create a situation where job losses can lead to further economic weakness. Well over 22% of U.S. homes, condominiums and other residential properties have negative equity now. The situations in commercial buildings and shopping malls are worse. These are the reasons for the periodic sharp stock pull backs that become buying opportunities. But when they surge ahead 30% or more it become time to get out of them again, at least until unemployment stabilizes next year.
In effect we are in a compressed market where there are substantial price swings that can occur in six weeks when in the past they may have taken twelve months. So investors must now be more alert and almost traders for the next year.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits.
Last night Asian markets were down slightly: China up 0.1%, Japan down 0.1%, and India down 0.3%.
Today most European markets are down in a range of -0.2% to -1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate about a -0.4% USA market opening this morning.
We will continue cherry picking into and out of the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks while other stocks flatten out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual. It will be as though time was compressed and hence investing will require more trading skill.
The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Why is it that congress and federal employees still get better health care than what they give the rest of us? Isn't that just another socialist government entitlement for the master elitists of the world?
One way of buying time when things are very bad is to recognize losses later, rather than sooner. Normally when the market is down and a stock is highly undervalued the management discloses all the losses it has hidden from when the “good times” were rolling. But when the stocks are down the management typically unloads the hidden losses by writing down good will, delinquent/late receipts, off-book debts, and other losses as one time events hoping that investors are foolish enough to believe them that they were not instead the result of manipulating profits and manipulating their bonus payouts. Any company that does this each business cycle is almost certainly intentionally defrauding shareholders. But many do it.
GE is under pressure to separate its industrial unit from its GE Capital financial division, as the Obama administration made clear in a white paper on regulatory reform that it wants to "re-affirm and strengthen" existing policies of separating banking and commerce. GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA is the Obama propaganda machine and depends on its government contracts to survive at this point. China is killing GE's former money making machines. For instance GE is being forced out of the light bulb market and the appliance market.
The above is basically what Barclays Capital analyst Robert Cornell concluded "GE was up to, following the release of its second-quarter earnings on July 17. As a result, when GE Capital reported fewer write-downs than Cornell had in his 2009 estimates, he merely added those hidden losses to his 2010 loss estimates."
"GE has raised suspicions among investors and analysts as it has reported relatively small losses in areas like real estate and consumer lending that have stung banks like Citigroup (C Quote) Bank of America(BAC Quote) JPMorgan Chase (JPM Quote) and Wells Fargo (JPM Quote)."
While GE’s nearer term strategy appears to be to delay taking losses as long as possible, "Sterne Agee analyst Nick Heymann thinks GE will ultimately have to find a large deposit-taking institution to take a substantial stake in GE Capital. That will be an easier sell for GE if it has succeeded in its plan of shrinking the business. Otherwise, it may be too big for any institution to take on" – and GE could go the nationalization route of GM with a big Obama government buy-out. That would mean great pensions for the unions, and new government jobs or the corrupt GE managers. Socialist government politicians are historically highly adept in hiding the truth about national finances, losses, abominable public health, and their faked support from their impoverished masses. Just look at North Korea as the last stop in socialist tyranny. It is true that N Korea government officials own no property; they just live in the palaces paid for by their enslaved people. They don't need to own property themselves when they live like kings off their enslaved populations.
Socialist reverse racism is growing
Today poorer large American families are grateful and polite because they get care at clinics and hospitals with our current system. If they cannot pay the full price they don't. American hospital emergency wards cannot turn people away.
A new health care bill entitlement for 40 million Americans who today politely ask for medical assistance will very likely subject doctors, nurses and other Americans to the same racism and slander that the Boston police force received last week. We think President Obama's remarks and those of the Harvard professor were racist and distasteful. That professor believed he had a right (or entitlement) to slander a police officer. We don't believe anyone has a right to maliciously slander a fellow American much less an officer of the law. We believe the socialist health care bill in Congress will lead to many more false, malicious, and obnoxious assaults on health care providers as well as other Americans sitting in health care office waiting rooms. The President sets that bad example and encouraged it with his recent Freudian slip where he said that a highly respected Boston officer "behaved stupidly" for requesting photo identity of a Harvard professor who “stupidly” forgot his key and was reported breaking into his own house. How was the officer to know he was the owner? And if he was not the owner, the officer would have been accused of racism and dereliction of duty for not request photo identification. It was not the officer who behaved stupidly it was the black Harvard professor who behaved stupidly, obnoxiously, and with racism dripping off his lips.
We know America currently has the best health care system in the world. No socialist country provides the good care Americans receive. Their costs are lower because they provide a lot less and depend on America to pay for most of the world's advancements in treatments and pharmaceuticals. The bill in congress will entitle and unleash 40 million more people to abuse doctors and nurses because they think it entitles them to do what that racist Harvard professor and Obama did last week.
Market forces July 27
The market has hit an overbought condition over the past week. The buying opportunity is continuing on market pull-backs. Energy/oil, and precious metal commodities recently had buying opportunities and their pro-shares are now up substantially. We are seeing evidence that the housing market is nearing its bottom so it is much more attractive on pull backs. However the big RE companies running the shopping malls are being killed by vacancies. They are currently at highly inflated prices.
The high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios create a situation where job losses can lead to further economic weakness. Well over 22% of U.S. homes, condominiums and other residential properties have negative equity now. The situations in commercial buildings and shopping malls are worse. These are the reasons for the periodic sharp stock pull backs that become buying opportunities. But when they surge ahead 30% or more it become time to get out of them again, at least until unemployment stabilizes next year.
In effect we are in a compressed market where there are substantial price swings that can occur in six weeks when in the past they may have taken twelve months. So investors must now be more alert and almost traders for the next year.
Market Outlook
The recent rally has the market in a highly overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to continue with slides that represent buying opportunities and then wild optimistic appreciation (as we have just had) that can be times to take profits.
Last night Asian markets were down slightly: China up 0.1%, Japan down 0.1%, and India down 0.3%.
Today most European markets are down in a range of -0.2% to -1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate about a -0.4% USA market opening this morning.
We will continue cherry picking into and out of the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in some individual stocks while other stocks flatten out or rise and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual. It will be as though time was compressed and hence investing will require more trading skill.
The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Why is it that congress and federal employees still get better health care than what they give the rest of us? Isn't that just another socialist government entitlement for the master elitists of the world?
Friday, July 17, 2009
Is GE on the same path as GM?
After today we will take a break and resume this blog July 28.
CIT likely will be allowed to fail. Some unconventional unregulated lenders like GE were given government loan guarantees so that they would not fail like CIT (CIT had no loan guarantees) but GE's guarantees are up on October 31. GE's second quarter profits slid 49% as credit defaults have mounted at Capital Finance, its finance arm. GE saw an 80% drop at Capital Finance and a 41% fall at NBC Universal during the last quarter. It seems nobody with any clue likes to watch the socialist GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA propaganda machine any more.
Market forces July 17
The market has cleared away the short-term oversold condition it established these past four weeks. On July 28 we will know if the window of buying opportunity is closing. We do not expect the economy to rebound this year but since many economists say it will we expect the possibility of a false rally this fall.
The FED supporters are already warning congress to expect interest rate increases because inflation is already starting a run on the dollar. The enormous second-wave of adjustable mortgage rate resets is due to in begin late 2009 and to continue through 2011, as well as the increasing upward pressure that unemployment is putting on delinquencies (mortgages, credit cards, and home equity loans). Smaller weekly additions to the unemployed do not mean unemployment is declining. We still have to find jobs for all the unemployed as well as the 8% or 9% who have already exhausted their benefits. The increasing unemployment rate comes when homeowners have a high ratio of household debt-to-income, and the high ratio of mortgage loan-to-value. This is not a normal downturn. The high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios create a situation where job losses can lead to economic weakness (actually becomes a leading indicator). Well over 22% of U.S. homes, condominiums and other residential properties have negative equity now.
Market Outlook
The Five-day rally has the market in an overbought position again. Options expirations this week could be part of the reason for the run in stocks as it is a method to manipulate options and futures. We expect U.S. stocks to resume the steeper slide after the realization that bank and other corporate earnings reports still do not reflect any write down of toxic and obsolete assets and as the run on the dollar gains momentum.
Last night Asian markets were up: China up 0.2%, Japan up 0.5%, Taiwan up 1%, and India up 3.5%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of 0.4% to 0.6% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a -0.5% USA market opening this morning.
The rally this week signals that this current decline will take at least a month longer to unwind. We will continue cherry picking into the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual.
The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Solar and energy sectors are still in decline. Health care is ready to plunge again as soon as congress passes the health care bill. Why is it that congress and federal employees would get better health care than what they give the rest of us? Is that another big government entitlement for the master elitists of the world?
CIT likely will be allowed to fail. Some unconventional unregulated lenders like GE were given government loan guarantees so that they would not fail like CIT (CIT had no loan guarantees) but GE's guarantees are up on October 31. GE's second quarter profits slid 49% as credit defaults have mounted at Capital Finance, its finance arm. GE saw an 80% drop at Capital Finance and a 41% fall at NBC Universal during the last quarter. It seems nobody with any clue likes to watch the socialist GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA propaganda machine any more.
Market forces July 17
The market has cleared away the short-term oversold condition it established these past four weeks. On July 28 we will know if the window of buying opportunity is closing. We do not expect the economy to rebound this year but since many economists say it will we expect the possibility of a false rally this fall.
The FED supporters are already warning congress to expect interest rate increases because inflation is already starting a run on the dollar. The enormous second-wave of adjustable mortgage rate resets is due to in begin late 2009 and to continue through 2011, as well as the increasing upward pressure that unemployment is putting on delinquencies (mortgages, credit cards, and home equity loans). Smaller weekly additions to the unemployed do not mean unemployment is declining. We still have to find jobs for all the unemployed as well as the 8% or 9% who have already exhausted their benefits. The increasing unemployment rate comes when homeowners have a high ratio of household debt-to-income, and the high ratio of mortgage loan-to-value. This is not a normal downturn. The high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios create a situation where job losses can lead to economic weakness (actually becomes a leading indicator). Well over 22% of U.S. homes, condominiums and other residential properties have negative equity now.
Market Outlook
The Five-day rally has the market in an overbought position again. Options expirations this week could be part of the reason for the run in stocks as it is a method to manipulate options and futures. We expect U.S. stocks to resume the steeper slide after the realization that bank and other corporate earnings reports still do not reflect any write down of toxic and obsolete assets and as the run on the dollar gains momentum.
Last night Asian markets were up: China up 0.2%, Japan up 0.5%, Taiwan up 1%, and India up 3.5%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of 0.4% to 0.6% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a -0.5% USA market opening this morning.
The rally this week signals that this current decline will take at least a month longer to unwind. We will continue cherry picking into the market. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual.
The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Solar and energy sectors are still in decline. Health care is ready to plunge again as soon as congress passes the health care bill. Why is it that congress and federal employees would get better health care than what they give the rest of us? Is that another big government entitlement for the master elitists of the world?
Thursday, July 16, 2009
CIT trading now halted.
Some unconventional unregulated lenders like GE and GMAC were given government loan guarantees so that they would not fail but their coverage is up on October 31. CIT stock trading was halted yesterday because CIT did not get the guarantees. Will some of the banks fail as soon as they lose their guarantees? Probably they will, but many of them should have been folded anyway. Japan's socialists did not want to let their miss-managed banks fail and they are still suffering the consequences since 1990. Will Obama socialists keep us in an extended depression as FDR socialists and Japanese socialists did? Placing incompetence in high positions becomes an entitlement that allows the incompetent bureaucrats control every aspect of our life as they still do in totalitarian states.
Market forces July 16
Well were we ready for a short technical correction or are the broker-banks channeling federal funds into stocks? In 1933 the Glass Steagall bank regulation act was passed to make sure that co-mingling of funds would not allow the risky stock market to benefit from federal funds. Could it be that the broker-banks couldn't resist throwing federal money into stocks when they are supposed to be making loans to small business? Will this be yet another Wall Street scandal? The volume yesterday was not above the average so it looks more like a short technical correction.
Typically inflation under Glass Steagall was bad for the market. But record 21.6% annual inflation hit producer prices, which usually is followed in six to nine months by consumer price inflation. Yet the market rallied 3% on high commodity price inflation news. Certainly INTL cannot explain the 3% market move because computer chip sales is a drop in the bucket of China trade.
Market Outlook
The four-day rally with a 3% rise yesterday puts the market in an overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to resume the steeper slide after the realization that bank and other corporate earnings reports still do not reflect any write down of toxic and obsolete assets.
Meanwhile, in June there was a 1.8 percent jump in the Producer Price Index (a 21.6% annual rate), which tracks the costs of goods before they reach store shelves, the Labor Department said. The gain was twice what analysts expected signals a reversal of a trend in the past 12 months that sent wholesale prices down 4.6 percent.
Last night Asian markets were mixed: China down -0.2%, Japan up 0.8%, Taiwan up 1.5%, and India down -0.1%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of 0.2% to 1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a flat market opening this morning.
The rally this week signals that this current decline will take at least a month longer to unwind than we had expected. We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be at least another two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual. The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Solar and energy sectors are still in decline. Retail clothing stores are incredibly overvalued. Health care is ready to plunge again as soon as congress passes the health care bill. Why is it that congress and federal employees will get better health care than what they give the rest of us with their bill? Is that another entitlement?
Market forces July 16
Well were we ready for a short technical correction or are the broker-banks channeling federal funds into stocks? In 1933 the Glass Steagall bank regulation act was passed to make sure that co-mingling of funds would not allow the risky stock market to benefit from federal funds. Could it be that the broker-banks couldn't resist throwing federal money into stocks when they are supposed to be making loans to small business? Will this be yet another Wall Street scandal? The volume yesterday was not above the average so it looks more like a short technical correction.
Typically inflation under Glass Steagall was bad for the market. But record 21.6% annual inflation hit producer prices, which usually is followed in six to nine months by consumer price inflation. Yet the market rallied 3% on high commodity price inflation news. Certainly INTL cannot explain the 3% market move because computer chip sales is a drop in the bucket of China trade.
Market Outlook
The four-day rally with a 3% rise yesterday puts the market in an overbought position again. We expect U.S. stocks to resume the steeper slide after the realization that bank and other corporate earnings reports still do not reflect any write down of toxic and obsolete assets.
Meanwhile, in June there was a 1.8 percent jump in the Producer Price Index (a 21.6% annual rate), which tracks the costs of goods before they reach store shelves, the Labor Department said. The gain was twice what analysts expected signals a reversal of a trend in the past 12 months that sent wholesale prices down 4.6 percent.
Last night Asian markets were mixed: China down -0.2%, Japan up 0.8%, Taiwan up 1.5%, and India down -0.1%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of 0.2% to 1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a flat market opening this morning.
The rally this week signals that this current decline will take at least a month longer to unwind than we had expected. We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be at least another two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual. The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Solar and energy sectors are still in decline. Retail clothing stores are incredibly overvalued. Health care is ready to plunge again as soon as congress passes the health care bill. Why is it that congress and federal employees will get better health care than what they give the rest of us with their bill? Is that another entitlement?
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
GE's situation will be the same as CIT on October 31
Unlike some corporate financial services such as GE that requested to be classified as banks to be able to get FED money and government guarantees on lending, CIT was strong enough to go it alone until now. CIT did not need to go directly to the FED window but now some of those financial organizations are in a similar situation to GE and are afraid to loan to CIT because they like CIT will loose their federal guarantees on October 31 when the program is set to expire. It is beginning to look like all the financial corporations including GE and Goldman will freeze up again come October 31 if the guarantees are not extended. That shows that the US banking system is now dependent on the FED life support system and they are getting weaker.
Market forces July 15
To socialist, profit is a dirty word. The socialists are throwing money down several rat holes creating disastrous entitlement programs that are unsustainable. They initially look good until people take advantage of the programs and run to the doctor for every scratch and runny nose. Then the waiting lines begins and we have the socialist system of equality of triage, wasted time, and euthanasia instead of finding new ways to extend life. Under socialism in Eastern Europe people were all guaranteed jobs but the socialists admitted the system was an unmitigated disaster and said,
"Government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work."
That is already the nature of state and federal union controlled jobs. The government workers are generally incompetent and arrogant and take out their frustrations on the people who need their services. But Americans do not know that unless they have lived abroad and needed services. Most Americans living abroad are there because they earn a good living. To the wealthy living abroad they tend to want to go to America for medical treatment even if they are not American. That is because they know America had the best medical services until the socialists took power this year.
We believe the socialists started this crisis when they took control of Congress in 2006 and the Senate Banking Commission (Rangel and Dodd) instituted corrupt mortgage practices and threatened to charge banks with racism if they asked questions about their loan applicant's ability to afford a mortgage. Then in 2008 the Obama campaign assailed the Bush economy as in a depression when just 60,000 people lost their jobs. Now under Obama's socialist system we are averaging a loss of 500,000 jobs a month. The Senate Banking Commission created the first depression bank runs in 2008 when Dodd revealed the names of some weak banks.
We believe the socialists started this depression and that it will not end until all the socialists are driven from power, all their programs and entitlements are terminated and there are massive eliminations of state and federal jobs. In the mean time it will become increasingly difficult to make a good living and anyone earning a good living will be attacked just as Goldman employees will be attacked if they are rewarded for making a profit. To socialist, profit is a dirty word.
Market Outlook
As long as there is still a free market there will be opportunities to profit even in a declining world economy. As long as profit is a dirty word the markets will be a difficult place to invest money. Ultimately the socialist will eliminate free markets again saying they are unstable and government central planning "Big Brother" will decide what products need to be produced. Ultimately under socialism America will experience starvation and massive migrations of indigent peoples who have cultures where people like to play, not compete, and want to have relaxed lives and enjoy the moment at someone else's expense. In effect productive people will be considered fools and will be allowed to work as voluntary slaves. The smart socialists want a government job where they get the best pay and benefits and pretend to work. Read Orwell's 1984 to get a glimpse of "Big Brother" who will care for our every need. The socialists have put America into very difficult times now and poverty not growth is what the free world faces with increasing American socialism.
The stock markets are testing their 65-day moving averages and still trending lower. We expect U.S. stocks to resume the steeper slide after the eventual realization that bank and other corporate earnings reports still do not reflect any write down of toxic and obsolete assets. The administration has proposed several ways to buy out toxic assets but has done nothing. Meanwhile residential and commercial real estate values continue to decline causing the toxic assets to grow more threatening. Corporations are shutting their doors. It is not hard to show a profit now by ignoring the write down of losses while charging Americans 4% to 5% interest and borrowing at almost no interest cost from the socialist government. But soon under socialism, profit will become a dirty word. Under socialism eventually no one will be able make a profit. Taxes will take care of that.
Last night most Asian markets were up: China up 1.4%, Japan also up 0.1%, Taiwan up 1.5%, and India is up 2.9%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of 1% to 2% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a 0.7% higher market opening this morning.
We believe the drop in international trade has hollowed out financial markets and emerging markets. We have been warning about this for a month now and even Jim Cramer has mentioned that weakness. International demand for their commodities and products has collapsed and their socialist governments are squandering their reserves on projects and internal consumption which helps the dollar but destroys the private sector which is the lifeblood of growing economies.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be at least another month of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual. The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Solar, energy, automotive, and medical sectors are all in decline.
Market forces July 15
To socialist, profit is a dirty word. The socialists are throwing money down several rat holes creating disastrous entitlement programs that are unsustainable. They initially look good until people take advantage of the programs and run to the doctor for every scratch and runny nose. Then the waiting lines begins and we have the socialist system of equality of triage, wasted time, and euthanasia instead of finding new ways to extend life. Under socialism in Eastern Europe people were all guaranteed jobs but the socialists admitted the system was an unmitigated disaster and said,
"Government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work."
That is already the nature of state and federal union controlled jobs. The government workers are generally incompetent and arrogant and take out their frustrations on the people who need their services. But Americans do not know that unless they have lived abroad and needed services. Most Americans living abroad are there because they earn a good living. To the wealthy living abroad they tend to want to go to America for medical treatment even if they are not American. That is because they know America had the best medical services until the socialists took power this year.
We believe the socialists started this crisis when they took control of Congress in 2006 and the Senate Banking Commission (Rangel and Dodd) instituted corrupt mortgage practices and threatened to charge banks with racism if they asked questions about their loan applicant's ability to afford a mortgage. Then in 2008 the Obama campaign assailed the Bush economy as in a depression when just 60,000 people lost their jobs. Now under Obama's socialist system we are averaging a loss of 500,000 jobs a month. The Senate Banking Commission created the first depression bank runs in 2008 when Dodd revealed the names of some weak banks.
We believe the socialists started this depression and that it will not end until all the socialists are driven from power, all their programs and entitlements are terminated and there are massive eliminations of state and federal jobs. In the mean time it will become increasingly difficult to make a good living and anyone earning a good living will be attacked just as Goldman employees will be attacked if they are rewarded for making a profit. To socialist, profit is a dirty word.
Market Outlook
As long as there is still a free market there will be opportunities to profit even in a declining world economy. As long as profit is a dirty word the markets will be a difficult place to invest money. Ultimately the socialist will eliminate free markets again saying they are unstable and government central planning "Big Brother" will decide what products need to be produced. Ultimately under socialism America will experience starvation and massive migrations of indigent peoples who have cultures where people like to play, not compete, and want to have relaxed lives and enjoy the moment at someone else's expense. In effect productive people will be considered fools and will be allowed to work as voluntary slaves. The smart socialists want a government job where they get the best pay and benefits and pretend to work. Read Orwell's 1984 to get a glimpse of "Big Brother" who will care for our every need. The socialists have put America into very difficult times now and poverty not growth is what the free world faces with increasing American socialism.
The stock markets are testing their 65-day moving averages and still trending lower. We expect U.S. stocks to resume the steeper slide after the eventual realization that bank and other corporate earnings reports still do not reflect any write down of toxic and obsolete assets. The administration has proposed several ways to buy out toxic assets but has done nothing. Meanwhile residential and commercial real estate values continue to decline causing the toxic assets to grow more threatening. Corporations are shutting their doors. It is not hard to show a profit now by ignoring the write down of losses while charging Americans 4% to 5% interest and borrowing at almost no interest cost from the socialist government. But soon under socialism, profit will become a dirty word. Under socialism eventually no one will be able make a profit. Taxes will take care of that.
Last night most Asian markets were up: China up 1.4%, Japan also up 0.1%, Taiwan up 1.5%, and India is up 2.9%.
Today most European markets are up in a range of 1% to 2% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a 0.7% higher market opening this morning.
We believe the drop in international trade has hollowed out financial markets and emerging markets. We have been warning about this for a month now and even Jim Cramer has mentioned that weakness. International demand for their commodities and products has collapsed and their socialist governments are squandering their reserves on projects and internal consumption which helps the dollar but destroys the private sector which is the lifeblood of growing economies.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be at least another month of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual. The new democrat-socialist administration destroys every free market sector they touch. Solar, energy, automotive, and medical sectors are all in decline.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Debt is a relentless adversary.
Debt never forgives or forgets. It gives no warning and has no preferred menu among the rich and poor. It sits there consuming everything it can. All are equally delicious. If inflation increases the interest rate, its appetite increases. If deflation get worse many victims weaken and each bite out of them is more lethal.
Last week AIG began a debt death spiral and we warned CIT was next.
CIT Group Inc., the century-old lender to 950,000 businesses that has been unable to persuade the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to guarantee its debt sales, hired bankruptcy specialist Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP as an adviser amid a plunge in CIT stock and bonds. The FDIC is concerned that standing behind CIT debt would put taxpayer money at risk because the company’s credit quality is worsening. The FDIC has backed $274 billion in bond sales under its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program since Nov. 25.
A failure of CIT would be the biggest bank collapse since regulators seized Washington Mutual Inc. in September. CIT reported $75.7 billion in assets and $68.2 billion in liabilities, including $3 billion in deposits, at the end of the first quarter.
CIT is floundering again and the GE/NBC/Pravda smoke is a clear sign that all the bank and financial stocks are vulnerable at this time. We would not be in banks at this time.
The commercial real estate market is also in collapse.
About 40% of the states can no longer balance their budgets.
CIT and also GE became banks last year to qualify for a government bailout. CIT and received $2.33 billion in bailout funds from the U.S. Treasury. CIT has reported more than $3 billion of losses in the past eight quarters, faces $10 billion of maturing debt through 2010 and hasn’t had access to the corporate bond market in more than a year. CIT may default as soon as April, when a $2.1 billion credit line matures.
“Skadden is one of the principal law firms representing CIT,” Curt Ritter, a spokesman for New York-based CIT, said in an e-mail. “They represent the firm on a wide variety of corporate matters. CIT will not comment on any specific aspect of their engagement.” New York-based Skadden advised Circuit City Stores Inc. in its bankruptcy.
CIT’s $500 million of floating-rate notes due in November 2010 fell 3.5 cents on the dollar yesterday to 70 cents, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
Credit-default swaps on CIT rose 2.5 percentage points to 37 percent upfront. That’s in addition to 5 percent a year, meaning it would cost $3.7 million initially and $500,000 annually to protect $10 million of CIT debt for five years. The upfront cost reached the highest since Oct. 17, when it reportedly climbed to a record 41.5 percent.
The FED opened the TLGP channel of funding for financial institutions unable to borrow in U.S. markets after the September collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. By paying the FDIC a fee to back their bonds, banks are able to sell debt with top credit ratings. The TLGP expires Oct. 31. Issuers must have applied by June 30.
Market forces July 13
General Electric Co. has access to the TLGP as GE’s credit situation worsens. GE was rated Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and AA+ by Standard & Poor’s. CIT was already slashed to speculative grade, or junk, in April. Moody’s cut CIT three levels to Ba2 from Baa2 on April 24. S&P downgraded CIT three grades to BB- on June 12.
The G8 meeting was as close to a complete failure as Obama could get. In a world that envies the power of American free enterprise Obama is a sobering reflection of the mediocrity and hopelessness of European socialism. With socialism rising in America, the world’s situation has become very grim. What nation will become the engine capable of giving the world a jump start now? Communist China? That’s a joke.
The debt crisis is truly unrelenting and Bernanke and Geihtner and other socialists do not seem to understand the gravity of the situation. Hoarding money in bank reserves to cover risk is the problem that is starving the economy and creating the risk. Likewise taxing people and corporations more to pay for a safety net is just the thing that causes economic failure.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to soon slide faster in this fifth week of this correction. Greater uncertainty abroad is still helping the dollar with a flight to safety.
Last night most Asian markets were down: Hong Kong down -2.6%, Japan also down -2.6%, both Taiwan and S. Korea down -3.5%, and India is down -0.8%.
Most European ended last week down sharply. Today most European markets are up in a range of 0.4% to 0.7% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a mixed opening this morning.
We believe the drop in international trade has hollowed out financial markets and emerging markets. International demand for their commodities and products has collapsed and their socialist governments are squandering their reserves on public projects and internal consumption which helps the dollar but destroys and competes with their productive entities.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual.
Last week AIG began a debt death spiral and we warned CIT was next.
CIT Group Inc., the century-old lender to 950,000 businesses that has been unable to persuade the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to guarantee its debt sales, hired bankruptcy specialist Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP as an adviser amid a plunge in CIT stock and bonds. The FDIC is concerned that standing behind CIT debt would put taxpayer money at risk because the company’s credit quality is worsening. The FDIC has backed $274 billion in bond sales under its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program since Nov. 25.
A failure of CIT would be the biggest bank collapse since regulators seized Washington Mutual Inc. in September. CIT reported $75.7 billion in assets and $68.2 billion in liabilities, including $3 billion in deposits, at the end of the first quarter.
CIT is floundering again and the GE/NBC/Pravda smoke is a clear sign that all the bank and financial stocks are vulnerable at this time. We would not be in banks at this time.
The commercial real estate market is also in collapse.
About 40% of the states can no longer balance their budgets.
CIT and also GE became banks last year to qualify for a government bailout. CIT and received $2.33 billion in bailout funds from the U.S. Treasury. CIT has reported more than $3 billion of losses in the past eight quarters, faces $10 billion of maturing debt through 2010 and hasn’t had access to the corporate bond market in more than a year. CIT may default as soon as April, when a $2.1 billion credit line matures.
“Skadden is one of the principal law firms representing CIT,” Curt Ritter, a spokesman for New York-based CIT, said in an e-mail. “They represent the firm on a wide variety of corporate matters. CIT will not comment on any specific aspect of their engagement.” New York-based Skadden advised Circuit City Stores Inc. in its bankruptcy.
CIT’s $500 million of floating-rate notes due in November 2010 fell 3.5 cents on the dollar yesterday to 70 cents, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
Credit-default swaps on CIT rose 2.5 percentage points to 37 percent upfront. That’s in addition to 5 percent a year, meaning it would cost $3.7 million initially and $500,000 annually to protect $10 million of CIT debt for five years. The upfront cost reached the highest since Oct. 17, when it reportedly climbed to a record 41.5 percent.
The FED opened the TLGP channel of funding for financial institutions unable to borrow in U.S. markets after the September collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. By paying the FDIC a fee to back their bonds, banks are able to sell debt with top credit ratings. The TLGP expires Oct. 31. Issuers must have applied by June 30.
Market forces July 13
General Electric Co. has access to the TLGP as GE’s credit situation worsens. GE was rated Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and AA+ by Standard & Poor’s. CIT was already slashed to speculative grade, or junk, in April. Moody’s cut CIT three levels to Ba2 from Baa2 on April 24. S&P downgraded CIT three grades to BB- on June 12.
The G8 meeting was as close to a complete failure as Obama could get. In a world that envies the power of American free enterprise Obama is a sobering reflection of the mediocrity and hopelessness of European socialism. With socialism rising in America, the world’s situation has become very grim. What nation will become the engine capable of giving the world a jump start now? Communist China? That’s a joke.
The debt crisis is truly unrelenting and Bernanke and Geihtner and other socialists do not seem to understand the gravity of the situation. Hoarding money in bank reserves to cover risk is the problem that is starving the economy and creating the risk. Likewise taxing people and corporations more to pay for a safety net is just the thing that causes economic failure.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to soon slide faster in this fifth week of this correction. Greater uncertainty abroad is still helping the dollar with a flight to safety.
Last night most Asian markets were down: Hong Kong down -2.6%, Japan also down -2.6%, both Taiwan and S. Korea down -3.5%, and India is down -0.8%.
Most European ended last week down sharply. Today most European markets are up in a range of 0.4% to 0.7% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a mixed opening this morning.
We believe the drop in international trade has hollowed out financial markets and emerging markets. International demand for their commodities and products has collapsed and their socialist governments are squandering their reserves on public projects and internal consumption which helps the dollar but destroys and competes with their productive entities.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline so the change in the market indices will be much more gradual.
Friday, July 10, 2009
When they blow smoke at you, there is fire
China is accusing some Austrailians of spying. That is blowing smoke and what that means is they are trying to gag someone who discovered just what a sorry state the Chinese economy is in. As we have been saying for over a month, the emerging market countries especially the socialists of China and India are hollowed out facades similar to Russia in the 90's when free enterprise collapsed there and the Russians returned to totalitarianism. If you believe power is transferring from west to east at this time you are experiencing the same smoke induced hallucinations that people had in 1989 when stock pushers were predicting that Japan would be #1. It was believable then because four of the ten largest world banks were Japanese. That was one of the reasons America was forced to deregulate. Japan had none of our bank liquidity and conflict-of-interest regulations so we deregulated to be able to compete with Japan and Europe. That is why pure American financial regulations will not work by themselves. The regulations must be international to prevent another bubble. Countries that do not comply with the banking regulations cannot be allowed to do business with any businesses in regulated countries. Our warning once again is to sell out of hollow emerging markets.
CIT is floundering again and that smoke is a clear sign that all the bank and financial stocks are vulnerable at this time. We would not be in banks at this time but would be interested 30% to 40% lower from current prices. The commercial real estate market is also in collapse. In addition, about 40% of the states refuse to balance their budgets. California and New York State legislatures are a complete disgrace and public jokes while eighteen other state legislatures suffer from the same socialist lunatic hallucinations and are becoming public jokes. The problem here is the Obama Administration has done nothing to eliminate toxic mortgages and derivatives. Obama suffers from the Japan syndrome of paralysis of analysis, talk, and their Zen Buddhist philosophy of "Ignor-ance." The lunatic left believes American taxpayers will be willing to bail out socialist lunatics everywhere. After all the Americans voted the socialists in and gave them a mandate to destroy free enterprise, a veto proof Congress, the presidency, and the power to install the lunatic left in the Supreme Court as well.
The socialist-democrat parties historically always accuses the free enterprise parties of corruption but it is always the socialist-democrats who run the corrupt cities, corrupt governments, and corrupt elections. Free enterprise and tyranny are mutually exclusive.
Market forces July 10
Obama still has done nothing to ease credit. The Abernanke de-leveraging of banks is consuming more than all the money the treasury can print. Mortgage failures are still occurring faster than toxic mortgages are being dissolved. The commercial real estate market is reeling in losses now and ready to collapse. Financials, emerging markets, and real estate are extremely vulnerable for a major correction at this time. That is why there is some much smoke right now. Mad Money and the traders love to pump up the pigs when they are selling them to the public. They call it "pump and dump" time. They are pumping financials and emerging markets like maniacs now.
Japan's wholesale prices dropped 6.6% last month typical of what happens during a socialist initiated Great Depression. Japan's socialists in the 1980's bragged about the superiority of their cradle to grave life-long socialist employment system. It ultimately has put them in a recession-depression cycle that started in 1990 and has gone on for 19 years now. The cradle to grave socialist system is what socialist Obama and democrat-socialists in congress are trying to force on America right now. FDR started as a socialist but although he returned to free enterprise, his socialist experiment cost America about 8 years of depression that America could have avoided in the 1930s.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, for the fourth week of this correction. Greater uncertainty abroad is helping the dollar. There is a flight to safety beginning again.
Last night most Asian markets were down slightly: Hong Kong down -0.5%, China down -0.3%, Japan down -0.1%, and India down -1.8%.
Most European markets were down more than -1% yesterday and this morning are down in a range of -0.7% to -1.1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a -0.7% opening this morning.
We believe the drop in international trade has hollowed out emerging markets. International demand for their commodities and products has collapsed and their socialist governments are squandering their reserves on public projects and internal consumption which helps the dollar but destroys and competes with their productive entities.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline. Therefore the change in the market indices will be much more gradual.
CIT is floundering again and that smoke is a clear sign that all the bank and financial stocks are vulnerable at this time. We would not be in banks at this time but would be interested 30% to 40% lower from current prices. The commercial real estate market is also in collapse. In addition, about 40% of the states refuse to balance their budgets. California and New York State legislatures are a complete disgrace and public jokes while eighteen other state legislatures suffer from the same socialist lunatic hallucinations and are becoming public jokes. The problem here is the Obama Administration has done nothing to eliminate toxic mortgages and derivatives. Obama suffers from the Japan syndrome of paralysis of analysis, talk, and their Zen Buddhist philosophy of "Ignor-ance." The lunatic left believes American taxpayers will be willing to bail out socialist lunatics everywhere. After all the Americans voted the socialists in and gave them a mandate to destroy free enterprise, a veto proof Congress, the presidency, and the power to install the lunatic left in the Supreme Court as well.
The socialist-democrat parties historically always accuses the free enterprise parties of corruption but it is always the socialist-democrats who run the corrupt cities, corrupt governments, and corrupt elections. Free enterprise and tyranny are mutually exclusive.
Market forces July 10
Obama still has done nothing to ease credit. The Abernanke de-leveraging of banks is consuming more than all the money the treasury can print. Mortgage failures are still occurring faster than toxic mortgages are being dissolved. The commercial real estate market is reeling in losses now and ready to collapse. Financials, emerging markets, and real estate are extremely vulnerable for a major correction at this time. That is why there is some much smoke right now. Mad Money and the traders love to pump up the pigs when they are selling them to the public. They call it "pump and dump" time. They are pumping financials and emerging markets like maniacs now.
Japan's wholesale prices dropped 6.6% last month typical of what happens during a socialist initiated Great Depression. Japan's socialists in the 1980's bragged about the superiority of their cradle to grave life-long socialist employment system. It ultimately has put them in a recession-depression cycle that started in 1990 and has gone on for 19 years now. The cradle to grave socialist system is what socialist Obama and democrat-socialists in congress are trying to force on America right now. FDR started as a socialist but although he returned to free enterprise, his socialist experiment cost America about 8 years of depression that America could have avoided in the 1930s.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, for the fourth week of this correction. Greater uncertainty abroad is helping the dollar. There is a flight to safety beginning again.
Last night most Asian markets were down slightly: Hong Kong down -0.5%, China down -0.3%, Japan down -0.1%, and India down -1.8%.
Most European markets were down more than -1% yesterday and this morning are down in a range of -0.7% to -1.1% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a -0.7% opening this morning.
We believe the drop in international trade has hollowed out emerging markets. International demand for their commodities and products has collapsed and their socialist governments are squandering their reserves on public projects and internal consumption which helps the dollar but destroys and competes with their productive entities.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline. Therefore the change in the market indices will be much more gradual.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Socialism is a system of hallucinogenic lunatic left ideas.
The jury verdict of the business and scientific world is that the socialist's lunatic left economics and science does not work because it is dishonest and dogmatic. Just as the whole world is beginning to realize that the lunatic left can't write a truthful paper or do an honest scientific experiment, Obama goes out and tries to convince the G-8 summit nations that we should all follow the lunatic left and commit hara-kiri together with emissions cap and trade. It turns out that New Zealand was one of the first countries to embrace the lunatic left and last year they gave up on the stupid lunatic left cap-n-trade hallucination. Just when the world comes to understand thatAmerica was right all along in vetoing the Kyoto Treaty… along comes Obama and the American lunatic left.
GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA got on board and announce it is a lunatic left green company. GE is that green company that still has not cleaned up the carcinogens it has deposited in our rivers. I guess the green refers to the green slime of leftist rhetoric and inept science. And of course the lunatics think they are god like and we should all believe their twaddle
Well the lunatic left will be the demise of the democrat socialists because their policies are failing the same way the socialist policies of FDR failed. FDR inadvertantly created the Great Depression because socialism was a popular hallucinogenic idea in Europe. But Americans forgave him because he reverted back to American free enterprise, fought the German National Socialists, and stood up to the Soviet International Socialists. FDR selected Harry Truman specifically to root out the corruption that comes with socialism.
Inspectors general serve as the primary investigator and auditor at American federal agencies. They have statutory powers to investigate internal fraud, waste, abuse and mismanagement as well as conduct oversight of the recipients of stimulus funds and contractors who work with the individual agencies.
Several inspectors general have recently been dismissed by Obama following the issuance of critical reports about the agencies they monitor. This shows that the Obama administration wants no oversight of the $trillions they are giving to ACORN and other criminal, pro left, and anti-American organizations.
"The mounting evidence that there might be political interference with the IGs is disturbing," said Pete Sepp, vice president for policy and communications at the National Taxpayers Union. "The IGs are being emasculated."
"When inspectors general across the administration have roadblocks placed in their way, American taxpayers should worry. A threat to one's independence is a threat to them all," said Rep. Jeb Hensarling.
Market forces July 9
If Obama continues to hallucinate economic policy with the lunatic left it is clear investors will get even more fearful and the market and commodity futures will spiral down into a depression. The March-June rally was the result of an early "recovery hallucination" that GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA was inducing.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, the number of people who filed the first time for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 4 fell by 9% to 565,000. Incredibly it is only the first time the figure has been below 600,000 this year. However, the jobless claims figures may have been affected by the big Fourth of July holiday that closed offices for a day.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. Only greater uncertainty abroad will help the dollar.
Last night most Asian markets were flat: Hong Kong up 0.4%, Japan down -1.4%, and India down -0.1%.
Most European markets were down more than 1% yesterday and this morning are up in a range of 0.7% to 1.4% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a positive beginning again this morning.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline. Therefore the change in the market indices will be more gradual.
GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA got on board and announce it is a lunatic left green company. GE is that green company that still has not cleaned up the carcinogens it has deposited in our rivers. I guess the green refers to the green slime of leftist rhetoric and inept science. And of course the lunatics think they are god like and we should all believe their twaddle
Well the lunatic left will be the demise of the democrat socialists because their policies are failing the same way the socialist policies of FDR failed. FDR inadvertantly created the Great Depression because socialism was a popular hallucinogenic idea in Europe. But Americans forgave him because he reverted back to American free enterprise, fought the German National Socialists, and stood up to the Soviet International Socialists. FDR selected Harry Truman specifically to root out the corruption that comes with socialism.
Inspectors general serve as the primary investigator and auditor at American federal agencies. They have statutory powers to investigate internal fraud, waste, abuse and mismanagement as well as conduct oversight of the recipients of stimulus funds and contractors who work with the individual agencies.
Several inspectors general have recently been dismissed by Obama following the issuance of critical reports about the agencies they monitor. This shows that the Obama administration wants no oversight of the $trillions they are giving to ACORN and other criminal, pro left, and anti-American organizations.
"The mounting evidence that there might be political interference with the IGs is disturbing," said Pete Sepp, vice president for policy and communications at the National Taxpayers Union. "The IGs are being emasculated."
"When inspectors general across the administration have roadblocks placed in their way, American taxpayers should worry. A threat to one's independence is a threat to them all," said Rep. Jeb Hensarling.
Market forces July 9
If Obama continues to hallucinate economic policy with the lunatic left it is clear investors will get even more fearful and the market and commodity futures will spiral down into a depression. The March-June rally was the result of an early "recovery hallucination" that GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA was inducing.
According to the U.S. Labor Department, the number of people who filed the first time for unemployment benefits for the week ending July 4 fell by 9% to 565,000. Incredibly it is only the first time the figure has been below 600,000 this year. However, the jobless claims figures may have been affected by the big Fourth of July holiday that closed offices for a day.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. Only greater uncertainty abroad will help the dollar.
Last night most Asian markets were flat: Hong Kong up 0.4%, Japan down -1.4%, and India down -0.1%.
Most European markets were down more than 1% yesterday and this morning are up in a range of 0.7% to 1.4% half way through their session.
US futures indicate a positive beginning again this morning.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline. We expect the decline will be the typical rotation with sharp drops in individual stocks while other stocks flatten out and then decline. Therefore the change in the market indices will be more gradual.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Financial racketeering is one reason for American distrust.
Jim Cramer still openly advocates racketeering, lying, deceiving the little guys, and robbing them blind. Is it any wonder that the disillusioned Americans are turning to socialists? That is why Germans turned to National Socialism and Russians turned to Lenin and Stalin. Jim Cramer thinks a CEO is a dunce unless he lies and gives a low ball earnings estimate a month or so before he announces earnings and then lies again and says that the next quarter will be much better. Jim Cramer thinks investors are stupid and need to be surprised with fabricated good news when earnings are announced.
GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA apparently believes deception is smart too. Jack Welch recently dunned GE CEO Immelt for being so stupid as to deceive Wall Street and announce great progress just a month before having to announce terrible earnings. You see Wall Street expected GE would lie and aim low but Immelt was too stupid to understand how Jack lied all the time to create low expectations in order to get upside surprises. The current GE CEO dunce got it all backwards according to Jack.
Jim Cramer duns the WSJ for trying to be honest and continue with traditional good journalism. That is one reason the WSJ survives and other newspapers and GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA are headed for the dustbin. Americans are disillusioned with financial dishonesty and corruption just as the Germans who turned to the socialists in the 1930s. That is what George Soros and GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA apparently have wanted all along. The people who are destroying American trust in free enterprise and the American financial system want Americans disillusioned and want Americans to turn to socialist lies instead.
But the irony is that even with Jim Cramer lying and getting small investors into the market at the top so they loose their shirts as he sells out his oil stocks, or as GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA rips to shreds Palin and others who see through the socialists, Americans are beginning to see that America is still the leader of the blind socialist serfs of the world and Americans are beginning to see that Socialism is not a cure. Socialism is a disease of the soul of liberty. Creeping socialist tyranny and control of our lives explains the Senate Banking Commission corruption that caused the mortgage crisis.
Americans now are beginning to see that dumb, dumb, and dumber refers to the socialists in the House, Senate, and the White House. The Obama administration finally admits the Bush administration was right that the legal basis for indefinite detention of aliens it considers dangerous is separate from war-crimes prosecutions. Officials say that the laws of war allow indefinite detention to prevent hostile aliens from committing warlike acts in future, while prosecution by a military commission aims to punish them for war crimes committed in the past. Obama may keep Gitmo open but with a different name in a different place.
Market forces July 8
The democrat socialists see now that their stimulation package was a waste and accomplished nothing but they want to throw some more money at it anyway. Other people's money of course!
The question is will investors be even more disillusioned now and will the market and commodity futures spiral down to a new low as it would in a depression?
Jim Cramer claims now that energy futures have too low a margin requirement and they are easy to manipulate. He should know! He said it only took about $10 million to drive oil futures higher which then drove oil prices higher and made many investors think the world economy was reviving and economic expansion was around the corner. Cramer was perhaps either the biggest sucker of that scam or else he used it to unload his charitable trust oil stocks near the top. He sold right after he told doubting investors like me, sitting on the side lines, that good investors admit when they are wrong and we should capitulate and get into the market before it is too late (right at the high). Well it turns out that yesterday Cramer admitted he capitulated and took his profits just after telling his audience to be "in the market"!
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. This could be the first week we see real pressure rising on the dollar. Only greater uncertainty abroad will help the dollar.
Emerging-markets from India to Dubai tumbled, the ruble dropped to seven-week low and bond yields climbed as a slide in Japanese machinery orders caused concern that the global recession abroad was getting worse.
Jim Cramer now says that oil prices were manipulated via their futures and the economy is not recovering. He still has not admitted that his housing market bottom did not really happen last month as he claimed.
It takes very little volume to move the market these days and that is an indication of instability. The volatility index, VIX, is low and that indicates overconfidence. That is how it was in September 2007 just before the market bottom fell out. Oil and other commodities fall when deflation is feared. The reason for the deflation is that the stimulus money is going to de-leveraging the banks (reserves in the bank vaults) and into the wasteful black hole called government spending. The socialists want a crisis because they think people will then accept government control of their lives and a doubling of America's tax rate like the socialists have done in Europe. But I think Americans are much smarter than that and that the socialists will be thrown out first.
Last night most Asian markets were down Hong Kong down -0.8%, China down -0.3%, Japan down -2.4%, and India down 2.8%.
Most European markets were down this morning in a range of 0% to -0.5% half way through their session.
US futures indicate fear and caution this morning.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA apparently believes deception is smart too. Jack Welch recently dunned GE CEO Immelt for being so stupid as to deceive Wall Street and announce great progress just a month before having to announce terrible earnings. You see Wall Street expected GE would lie and aim low but Immelt was too stupid to understand how Jack lied all the time to create low expectations in order to get upside surprises. The current GE CEO dunce got it all backwards according to Jack.
Jim Cramer duns the WSJ for trying to be honest and continue with traditional good journalism. That is one reason the WSJ survives and other newspapers and GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA are headed for the dustbin. Americans are disillusioned with financial dishonesty and corruption just as the Germans who turned to the socialists in the 1930s. That is what George Soros and GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA apparently have wanted all along. The people who are destroying American trust in free enterprise and the American financial system want Americans disillusioned and want Americans to turn to socialist lies instead.
But the irony is that even with Jim Cramer lying and getting small investors into the market at the top so they loose their shirts as he sells out his oil stocks, or as GE/MSNBC/PRAVDA rips to shreds Palin and others who see through the socialists, Americans are beginning to see that America is still the leader of the blind socialist serfs of the world and Americans are beginning to see that Socialism is not a cure. Socialism is a disease of the soul of liberty. Creeping socialist tyranny and control of our lives explains the Senate Banking Commission corruption that caused the mortgage crisis.
Americans now are beginning to see that dumb, dumb, and dumber refers to the socialists in the House, Senate, and the White House. The Obama administration finally admits the Bush administration was right that the legal basis for indefinite detention of aliens it considers dangerous is separate from war-crimes prosecutions. Officials say that the laws of war allow indefinite detention to prevent hostile aliens from committing warlike acts in future, while prosecution by a military commission aims to punish them for war crimes committed in the past. Obama may keep Gitmo open but with a different name in a different place.
Market forces July 8
The democrat socialists see now that their stimulation package was a waste and accomplished nothing but they want to throw some more money at it anyway. Other people's money of course!
The question is will investors be even more disillusioned now and will the market and commodity futures spiral down to a new low as it would in a depression?
Jim Cramer claims now that energy futures have too low a margin requirement and they are easy to manipulate. He should know! He said it only took about $10 million to drive oil futures higher which then drove oil prices higher and made many investors think the world economy was reviving and economic expansion was around the corner. Cramer was perhaps either the biggest sucker of that scam or else he used it to unload his charitable trust oil stocks near the top. He sold right after he told doubting investors like me, sitting on the side lines, that good investors admit when they are wrong and we should capitulate and get into the market before it is too late (right at the high). Well it turns out that yesterday Cramer admitted he capitulated and took his profits just after telling his audience to be "in the market"!
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. This could be the first week we see real pressure rising on the dollar. Only greater uncertainty abroad will help the dollar.
Emerging-markets from India to Dubai tumbled, the ruble dropped to seven-week low and bond yields climbed as a slide in Japanese machinery orders caused concern that the global recession abroad was getting worse.
Jim Cramer now says that oil prices were manipulated via their futures and the economy is not recovering. He still has not admitted that his housing market bottom did not really happen last month as he claimed.
It takes very little volume to move the market these days and that is an indication of instability. The volatility index, VIX, is low and that indicates overconfidence. That is how it was in September 2007 just before the market bottom fell out. Oil and other commodities fall when deflation is feared. The reason for the deflation is that the stimulus money is going to de-leveraging the banks (reserves in the bank vaults) and into the wasteful black hole called government spending. The socialists want a crisis because they think people will then accept government control of their lives and a doubling of America's tax rate like the socialists have done in Europe. But I think Americans are much smarter than that and that the socialists will be thrown out first.
Last night most Asian markets were down Hong Kong down -0.8%, China down -0.3%, Japan down -2.4%, and India down 2.8%.
Most European markets were down this morning in a range of 0% to -0.5% half way through their session.
US futures indicate fear and caution this morning.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Again, “It’s the economy, stupid”! Said Clinton
Clueless in Washington
1) Government can only deliver healthcare at half the private sector cost by subsidizing it with taxes at twice the cost … stupid!
2) Stimulating the government sector stimulates unions, waste, and inflation... stupid!
Market forces July 7
The democrat socialists see now that their stimulation package was a complete waste and accomplished nothing. They do not understand that they need to stimulate private enterprise because the entrepreneurs create the new productive jobs.
The democrat socialists do not understand that lower taxes gives everyone more money to spend just like lower reserves gives the banks more money to loan.
Palin now says the democrat socialists are full of bull crap.
2) Raising reserve requirements contracts the supply of money available to loan… stupid.
3) Raising taxes contracts the supply of cash to invest in new jobs… stupid.
4) Smearing opponents and critics destroys your grass roots support... stupid.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. This could be the first week we see real pressure rising on the dollar.
It takes very little volume to move the market these days and the volatility index, VIX, is low indicating overconfidence in the belief that the previous market low in March will hold. That is how it was in September 2007 just before the market bottom fell out. Oil and other commodities fall when deflation is feared. The reason for the deflation is that the stimulus is mostly going to deleveraging the banks (reserves in the bank vaults) and to the wasteful black hole called government spending.
.
Last night most Asian markets were down Hong Kong down -0.7%, China down -1.1%, Japan down -0.7%, and India up 0.9%.
Most European markets were up this morning in a range of 0.3% to 0.8% half way through their session.
US futures are up slightly this morning.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
1) Government can only deliver healthcare at half the private sector cost by subsidizing it with taxes at twice the cost … stupid!
2) Stimulating the government sector stimulates unions, waste, and inflation... stupid!
Market forces July 7
The democrat socialists see now that their stimulation package was a complete waste and accomplished nothing. They do not understand that they need to stimulate private enterprise because the entrepreneurs create the new productive jobs.
The democrat socialists do not understand that lower taxes gives everyone more money to spend just like lower reserves gives the banks more money to loan.
Palin now says the democrat socialists are full of bull crap.
2) Raising reserve requirements contracts the supply of money available to loan… stupid.
3) Raising taxes contracts the supply of cash to invest in new jobs… stupid.
4) Smearing opponents and critics destroys your grass roots support... stupid.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. This could be the first week we see real pressure rising on the dollar.
It takes very little volume to move the market these days and the volatility index, VIX, is low indicating overconfidence in the belief that the previous market low in March will hold. That is how it was in September 2007 just before the market bottom fell out. Oil and other commodities fall when deflation is feared. The reason for the deflation is that the stimulus is mostly going to deleveraging the banks (reserves in the bank vaults) and to the wasteful black hole called government spending.
.
Last night most Asian markets were down Hong Kong down -0.7%, China down -1.1%, Japan down -0.7%, and India up 0.9%.
Most European markets were up this morning in a range of 0.3% to 0.8% half way through their session.
US futures are up slightly this morning.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
Monday, July 6, 2009
“It’s the economy, stupid”! Said Clinton. Does Obama listen?
Every deadbeat, every wino, every common thief has a sad story to tell you about this unfair world. The story is always the same: It wasn’t my fault, I inherited the problem! Usually they say it is their parent’s fault or their native country’s fault. Never do they take responsibility for their own situations in life much less really give a dam for the plight of others. They can't even take care of themselves.
Clueless in Washington
President Obama has had all the benefits of affirmative action. He got straight A’s at charm school, speech, acting, English, and teleprompter technology. But he obviously failed at economics, science, history, logic, and math.
1) The credit contraction accelerates, because the banks can not share their money or lower rates with stressed home owners all because Obama has their money going into vaults to raise their reserves to meet Obama’s bank stress tests… stupid!
2) The percent of unemployed actually getting unemployment insurance is now at 9.5% but there are another 7% unemployed now getting nothing while Obama said just four months ago unemployment would only be 7% now if congress passed the his spending bills… stupid.
Total US unemployment is 16.5% not 9.5%. Obama, Dodd, and Rangel created the mortgage crisis to get Obama elected. Their philosophy had been, “never waste a good crisis to introduce socialist policies” and totalitarian tactics to shut down critics. Rangel made it possible for people with no jobs or credit to buy 5% of America’s new housing. Dodd violated common sense and Banking Committee rules and announced a stressed American bank causing the first bank panic of the crisis Obama needed to get elected. Obama used the word "depression" when Bush was trying to avoid a crisis and maintain confidence in the US economy. Obama has already allocated $13.5 trillion and is now asking for more stimuli. The George Soros, the unions, government workers and ACORN just can’t get enough of Obama's largess.
Europe’s production declined 2.5 to 3.8% so far this year.
Market forces July 6
The Bear market rally ended three weeks ago and the market started its second leg down on Friday. We expect three or four down legs before we get another bear market rally. Fear and the underlying credit contraction are increasing. Obama may already have the whole world in an economic depression that probably will not bottom until 2012. Obama may very well be almost as bright as George W Bush but he obviously lacks the ability to select a competent staff and cabinet. He has appointed more than twenty socialist Czars with more power than his cabinet. The only thing we have to fear is Obama’s administration itself. The financial markets are beginning to more accurately reflect the deflationary credit contraction caused by deleveraging of financial institutions.
Emerging-market stocks dropped sharply last night as concern increased that the widest Indian budget deficit since 1994 will spur higher borrowing costs and Russian shares fell on lower commodity prices.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. Last week a 33% higher than expected pace in job losses added to concern that rising unemployment will cause the mortgage crisis to get out of control. Treasuries are rising, and oil and gold/silver prices began a downward correction as expected in an economic depression. Taxes under the democrat socialists are now anticipated to double in two years. Their energy bill will require old houses to meet new energy efficiency standards before they can be sold just like they now require radon free certificates today.
Did you ever wonder why spelunkers (cave explores) don’t all die young of lung cancer from the radon they must breathe that supposedly settles low spots along with CO2 when those two gases are claimed by the EPA to be lethal. Did you ever wonder if perhaps many supposed brain damaged kids in the city whose parents claimed suffered from lead poisoning were just genetically dumb kids like their parents who let them eat the chipped paint and the dirt on the floors? Did you ever wonder if it were true that CO2 is now at a record high today because we have burned 10% of the fossil fuels stored in the ground, then why wouldn’t the CO2 in the air have been ten times higher before any of that fossil fuel was laid down in the ground? Didn’t the plants take that CO2 out of the air originally and store it as bio-mass? In a socialist world it is politically incorrect for us to wonder much less think.
It takes very little volume to move the market these days and the volatility index, VIX, is low indicating overconfidence in the belief that the previous market low in March will hold. That is how it was in September 2007 just before the market collapse. Oil and other commodities fall when deflation is occurring. The reason for the deflation is that the stimulus is mostly going to deleveraging the banks and to the wasteful black hole called government spending.
Last Thursday most Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong down -1.1%, Japan down -0.6%, and India up 1.7%.
Last Thursday most European markets were down sharply this morning in a range of -2.3% to -3.3%
Last Friday most Asian markets were flat: Hong Kong up 0.1%, Japan down -0.6%, and India is up 0.1%.
Last Friday major European markets were flat in a range of -0.2% to +0.1% with no direction from the USA. Friday the US markets were closed.
.
Last night most Asian markets were down sharply: Hong Kong down -1.3%, Japan down -1.4%, and India down -5.8%... yes -5.8%.
Most European markets were down sharply this morning in a range of -1.3% to -2.4% half way through their session.
US futures are down again about 1% early today.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
Clueless in Washington
President Obama has had all the benefits of affirmative action. He got straight A’s at charm school, speech, acting, English, and teleprompter technology. But he obviously failed at economics, science, history, logic, and math.
1) The credit contraction accelerates, because the banks can not share their money or lower rates with stressed home owners all because Obama has their money going into vaults to raise their reserves to meet Obama’s bank stress tests… stupid!
2) The percent of unemployed actually getting unemployment insurance is now at 9.5% but there are another 7% unemployed now getting nothing while Obama said just four months ago unemployment would only be 7% now if congress passed the his spending bills… stupid.
Total US unemployment is 16.5% not 9.5%. Obama, Dodd, and Rangel created the mortgage crisis to get Obama elected. Their philosophy had been, “never waste a good crisis to introduce socialist policies” and totalitarian tactics to shut down critics. Rangel made it possible for people with no jobs or credit to buy 5% of America’s new housing. Dodd violated common sense and Banking Committee rules and announced a stressed American bank causing the first bank panic of the crisis Obama needed to get elected. Obama used the word "depression" when Bush was trying to avoid a crisis and maintain confidence in the US economy. Obama has already allocated $13.5 trillion and is now asking for more stimuli. The George Soros, the unions, government workers and ACORN just can’t get enough of Obama's largess.
Europe’s production declined 2.5 to 3.8% so far this year.
Market forces July 6
The Bear market rally ended three weeks ago and the market started its second leg down on Friday. We expect three or four down legs before we get another bear market rally. Fear and the underlying credit contraction are increasing. Obama may already have the whole world in an economic depression that probably will not bottom until 2012. Obama may very well be almost as bright as George W Bush but he obviously lacks the ability to select a competent staff and cabinet. He has appointed more than twenty socialist Czars with more power than his cabinet. The only thing we have to fear is Obama’s administration itself. The financial markets are beginning to more accurately reflect the deflationary credit contraction caused by deleveraging of financial institutions.
Emerging-market stocks dropped sharply last night as concern increased that the widest Indian budget deficit since 1994 will spur higher borrowing costs and Russian shares fell on lower commodity prices.
Market Outlook
We expect U.S. stocks to slide, sending the stock market into a fourth straight week of this correction. Last week a 33% higher than expected pace in job losses added to concern that rising unemployment will cause the mortgage crisis to get out of control. Treasuries are rising, and oil and gold/silver prices began a downward correction as expected in an economic depression. Taxes under the democrat socialists are now anticipated to double in two years. Their energy bill will require old houses to meet new energy efficiency standards before they can be sold just like they now require radon free certificates today.
Did you ever wonder why spelunkers (cave explores) don’t all die young of lung cancer from the radon they must breathe that supposedly settles low spots along with CO2 when those two gases are claimed by the EPA to be lethal. Did you ever wonder if perhaps many supposed brain damaged kids in the city whose parents claimed suffered from lead poisoning were just genetically dumb kids like their parents who let them eat the chipped paint and the dirt on the floors? Did you ever wonder if it were true that CO2 is now at a record high today because we have burned 10% of the fossil fuels stored in the ground, then why wouldn’t the CO2 in the air have been ten times higher before any of that fossil fuel was laid down in the ground? Didn’t the plants take that CO2 out of the air originally and store it as bio-mass? In a socialist world it is politically incorrect for us to wonder much less think.
It takes very little volume to move the market these days and the volatility index, VIX, is low indicating overconfidence in the belief that the previous market low in March will hold. That is how it was in September 2007 just before the market collapse. Oil and other commodities fall when deflation is occurring. The reason for the deflation is that the stimulus is mostly going to deleveraging the banks and to the wasteful black hole called government spending.
Last Thursday most Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong down -1.1%, Japan down -0.6%, and India up 1.7%.
Last Thursday most European markets were down sharply this morning in a range of -2.3% to -3.3%
Last Friday most Asian markets were flat: Hong Kong up 0.1%, Japan down -0.6%, and India is up 0.1%.
Last Friday major European markets were flat in a range of -0.2% to +0.1% with no direction from the USA. Friday the US markets were closed.
.
Last night most Asian markets were down sharply: Hong Kong down -1.3%, Japan down -1.4%, and India down -5.8%... yes -5.8%.
Most European markets were down sharply this morning in a range of -1.3% to -2.4% half way through their session.
US futures are down again about 1% early today.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Clueless in Washington as the credit contraction accelerates, and miserly banks do not share the money.
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. is publicizing the services of a foundation started by an economist named Dewey back in the Great Depression. It does Fourier type cycle analysis of trends in stocks, commodities, and national economies. It claims that in 2004 they predicted the top in the US stock market would be September 2007. This type of analysis is similar to artificial neural network solutions. Both predict that gold is currently in a correction.
This cycle analysis also predicts the US stock market has begun another downward correction that could take the market to a new low. But then it anticipates another Bear market rally. While this year may not be too bad, it predicts the stock market will not bottom until in 2012 after a series of declining bear market rallies. Basically they think the politicians and government regulators and economists are Clueless.
The WSJ reported that Congress international vacations (at taxpayer expense) are already up 50% since the socialist took control of Congress in 2006.
Market forces July 2
The Bear market rally is about to begin its second leg down. We expect three or four more small (<7%) down legs before we get another bear market rally. Fear and the underlying credit contraction are strengthening. The discount rate is close to zero so banks are making profits on their old loans. But still the new loans are not being made fast enough to replace old loans. Credit is contraction while the TARP funds are consumed on building a bigger reserve cushion for loan losses.
The money is not going where it was supposed to go… to make it easier to get a mortgage or to refinance. It is not that people do not want to refinance. The problem is that the miserly banks have such a profitable deal they think it is stupid to share it with mainstream taxpayers. The banks borrow at 0% interest and they want the homeowner to pay the bank 5.2% on the mortgage. To end mortgage defaults the mortgage rates have to fall to below 4%. But the socialist Obama administration seems clueless to this fact and the fact that the credit squeeze is getting worse and TARP is only building up reserves for a coming calamity that could be completely avoided. Obama is indeed turning this recession into a depression by stashing the money away in reserves for a depression when the money is needed right not to end the mortgage crisis and the recession.
Market Outlook
U.S. payrolls fell more than forecast in June; Unemployment rises to 9.5%. We expect U.S. stocks to slid now, sending the stock market into a third straight week of this correction. A worse-than-projected decrease in jobs added to concern that rising unemployment will grow the mortgage crisis until it is out of control. Treasuries are rising, while oil and gold/silver prices begin a correction as well.
Market volume collapsed 20% again on the market rise yesterday. It indicated the buying is still declining.
Last night most Asian markets were down: Hong Kong down -1.1%, Japan down -0.6%, and India is up 0.1%.
Most European markets were down sharply this morning in a range of -2.3% to -3.3% half way through their session.
US futures are down about 1.5% at the start today.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
This cycle analysis also predicts the US stock market has begun another downward correction that could take the market to a new low. But then it anticipates another Bear market rally. While this year may not be too bad, it predicts the stock market will not bottom until in 2012 after a series of declining bear market rallies. Basically they think the politicians and government regulators and economists are Clueless.
The WSJ reported that Congress international vacations (at taxpayer expense) are already up 50% since the socialist took control of Congress in 2006.
Market forces July 2
The Bear market rally is about to begin its second leg down. We expect three or four more small (<7%) down legs before we get another bear market rally. Fear and the underlying credit contraction are strengthening. The discount rate is close to zero so banks are making profits on their old loans. But still the new loans are not being made fast enough to replace old loans. Credit is contraction while the TARP funds are consumed on building a bigger reserve cushion for loan losses.
The money is not going where it was supposed to go… to make it easier to get a mortgage or to refinance. It is not that people do not want to refinance. The problem is that the miserly banks have such a profitable deal they think it is stupid to share it with mainstream taxpayers. The banks borrow at 0% interest and they want the homeowner to pay the bank 5.2% on the mortgage. To end mortgage defaults the mortgage rates have to fall to below 4%. But the socialist Obama administration seems clueless to this fact and the fact that the credit squeeze is getting worse and TARP is only building up reserves for a coming calamity that could be completely avoided. Obama is indeed turning this recession into a depression by stashing the money away in reserves for a depression when the money is needed right not to end the mortgage crisis and the recession.
Market Outlook
U.S. payrolls fell more than forecast in June; Unemployment rises to 9.5%. We expect U.S. stocks to slid now, sending the stock market into a third straight week of this correction. A worse-than-projected decrease in jobs added to concern that rising unemployment will grow the mortgage crisis until it is out of control. Treasuries are rising, while oil and gold/silver prices begin a correction as well.
Market volume collapsed 20% again on the market rise yesterday. It indicated the buying is still declining.
Last night most Asian markets were down: Hong Kong down -1.1%, Japan down -0.6%, and India is up 0.1%.
Most European markets were down sharply this morning in a range of -2.3% to -3.3% half way through their session.
US futures are down about 1.5% at the start today.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
A depression is a recession that is managed by socialists
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. exposes five economic lies of Wall Street and the Obama administration in:
The Great INVESTOR SWINDLE of 2009
http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/five-lies-2/the-great-investor-swindle/order/?sc=G100&ec=A96082
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Basically our democrat-socialists today are repeating the same mistakes socialists made when they caused the FDR depression. Socialism can take any normal recession and turn it into a 10 to 20 year fiasco. An example is Japan that wanted to guarantee its people one job for life where their job provided their fitness center, psychoanalist, medical center etc. Instead the Japanese got a life-long recession which free enterprise systems call a depression.
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D presents a graph that shows the next leg of the depression is about to begin and there will be several more down legs before his predicted 2013 bottom.
Janet Yellen seems to think we are in a great depression as well. Yesterday Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the prospect that policy makers will leave the benchmark U.S. interest rate near zero for the next several years is “not outside the realm of possibility.” That of course is exactly what will happen if Martin Weiss is correct.
Yesterday Mad Money had a strange call and Jim Cramer recommended the caller be 50% in US treasuries at these uncertain times. Weiss recommends 100% US treasuries and to sell your house as soon as possible. The Obama administration is an American Obamanation of socialist naivety. They believe that robbing the productive American workers to support welfare check entitlements for the ignorant the indolent and illegal immigrants is justice and progress. Most Americans will grow to see it as a form of slavery of entrepreneurs. Atlas will shrug it off no doubt by 2014 or 2010 if we throw the socialist bums out.
Market forces July 1
The portfolios for the second quarter are now tucked away. The decline may be as little as 12% or if Martin D. Weiss is correct it will set a new low.
Market Outlook
Today Bloomberg said that declines of more than 23 % in regional banks and 20% for homebuilders plus the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual losses may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about to fizzle. We recommended profit taking and correctly predicted the top three weeks ago.
Market volume recovered 20% in the market decline yesterday. It indicated more sellers willing to risk going up against the institutional owners who were putting their remaining cash into their existing portfolio to raise their quarterly performance just as the quarter closed. The funds have now exhausted their cash reserves buying to drive up their portfolio values. The sellers should begin to dominate the market now and through July and August if not longer.
The rapid decline in FED rates combined with the higher yields on bonds needed to entice investors during the tight credit period early this year was an excellent buying opportunity that is always the case when interest rates are lowered. That period was over months ago because the fed dropped their rate effectively to zero transiently raising the value of bonds. Short term bonds are still ok because you can liquidate them before rates change too much. Long term bonds are the ones to avoid because we believe Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen and Martin Weiss are probably correct in thinking this Obama depression could last until 2013
Last night most Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong down -0.8%, Japan down -0.2%, and India is up 1%.
Most European markets were up this morning in a range of 1.4% to 1.7% half way through their session.
US futures are flat-lined again at the start today.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
The Great INVESTOR SWINDLE of 2009
http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/five-lies-2/the-great-investor-swindle/order/?sc=G100&ec=A96082
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Basically our democrat-socialists today are repeating the same mistakes socialists made when they caused the FDR depression. Socialism can take any normal recession and turn it into a 10 to 20 year fiasco. An example is Japan that wanted to guarantee its people one job for life where their job provided their fitness center, psychoanalist, medical center etc. Instead the Japanese got a life-long recession which free enterprise systems call a depression.
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D presents a graph that shows the next leg of the depression is about to begin and there will be several more down legs before his predicted 2013 bottom.
Janet Yellen seems to think we are in a great depression as well. Yesterday Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the prospect that policy makers will leave the benchmark U.S. interest rate near zero for the next several years is “not outside the realm of possibility.” That of course is exactly what will happen if Martin Weiss is correct.
Yesterday Mad Money had a strange call and Jim Cramer recommended the caller be 50% in US treasuries at these uncertain times. Weiss recommends 100% US treasuries and to sell your house as soon as possible. The Obama administration is an American Obamanation of socialist naivety. They believe that robbing the productive American workers to support welfare check entitlements for the ignorant the indolent and illegal immigrants is justice and progress. Most Americans will grow to see it as a form of slavery of entrepreneurs. Atlas will shrug it off no doubt by 2014 or 2010 if we throw the socialist bums out.
Market forces July 1
The portfolios for the second quarter are now tucked away. The decline may be as little as 12% or if Martin D. Weiss is correct it will set a new low.
Market Outlook
Today Bloomberg said that declines of more than 23 % in regional banks and 20% for homebuilders plus the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual losses may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about to fizzle. We recommended profit taking and correctly predicted the top three weeks ago.
Market volume recovered 20% in the market decline yesterday. It indicated more sellers willing to risk going up against the institutional owners who were putting their remaining cash into their existing portfolio to raise their quarterly performance just as the quarter closed. The funds have now exhausted their cash reserves buying to drive up their portfolio values. The sellers should begin to dominate the market now and through July and August if not longer.
The rapid decline in FED rates combined with the higher yields on bonds needed to entice investors during the tight credit period early this year was an excellent buying opportunity that is always the case when interest rates are lowered. That period was over months ago because the fed dropped their rate effectively to zero transiently raising the value of bonds. Short term bonds are still ok because you can liquidate them before rates change too much. Long term bonds are the ones to avoid because we believe Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen and Martin Weiss are probably correct in thinking this Obama depression could last until 2013
Last night most Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong down -0.8%, Japan down -0.2%, and India is up 1%.
Most European markets were up this morning in a range of 1.4% to 1.7% half way through their session.
US futures are flat-lined again at the start today.
We will be cherry picking into the market during what we expect to be about two months of market decline.
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