Monday, November 30, 2009

Dubai stands as international Arab mockery of Al Quaeda.

World Outlook
US treasury rates fall as Dubai continues to shake the world's banking system. But the United Arab Emirates’ central bank now said it would back the state’s lenders as they face losses from Dubai World’s possible default. While the Moslem terrorists bomb and terrorize infidel night spots around the world, gambling, alcohol and sex for "devout" Moslems leaders continues on Spain's coast de sol and closer to home in Dubai. Dubai stands high in international Arab mockery and dismissal of Al Quaeda and other Moslem religious fanatics.

Market Outlook:
The hedge funds that missed this year's bull market are now buying everything they can before the year end quarterly reports are closed out. Investors who caught the bull market have been taking profits and raising cash. Real estate is down on average close to 30% and bargain hunting for high-end properties is just beginning. Many Chinese billionaires are internationally mobile and are looking abroad. This is a harbinger of a potential brain drain of Chinese entrepreneurs and billionaire retirees.

This week's economic calendar

Tuesday, Dec. 1:
November ISM manufacturing index
Corporate Profits
Construction Spending
Pending Home Sales

Wednesday, Dec. 2:
Challenger Layoff Report
ADP Jobs Report
Fed's Beige Book minutes of the last meeting

Thursday, Dec. 3:
Unemployment Claims
Productivity
ISM non-Manufacture Index

Friday, Dec. 4:
Labor Dept. Jobs Report.
Factory Orders



Today, Monday, Nov 30,
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index


Market forces November 30
We estimate the NYSE must now rise 3.7% from Friday's close to be interpreted as a continuing rally not a declining head and shoulder sell signal. That reflects both the price change and volume of shares being traded. Today may be the last opportunity to avoid an outright sell signal. In any event after a possible Santa-Claus rally a normal -3% to -5% downward correction would be due anyway… so it is still wise to take profits were possible. If the head and shoulders sell signal occurs the correction could be closer to -10% to -15%.

Asian markets appear to have entered into a limited price range period and America may soon do the same.

Asian markets recovered some of last week's losses from Dubai news; China up 3.2%, Hong Kong up 3.3%, India up 1.8%, Japan up 2.9%, Seoul up 2.0% and Taiwan up 1.2%.

European markets are drifting lower with the average in a range from -0.1% to -0.9% this morning about half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are just now declining about today at 8:00 AM EST.

It is important to be able to take stock profits before January if the broader market of the NYSE does not set a new high at least 3.7% above Friday's closing price and on above average volume. The DOW is up but the DOW is where stock money goes when the market is shaky. That disparity itself is a concern. We would even consider getting retirement investments on the sidelines under those conditions.

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