Monday, November 21, 2011

Republicans want to trim Federal government not give seniors a haircut. The first department to be eliminated would be the US Energy Starvation Dept

Republicans want to trim Federal government not give seniors a haircut. The first department to be eliminated would be the US Energy Starvation Department.
The Republican candidates suggested that three to five government agencies are run by morons and are keeping our economy mired. The Energy Department is the worst on the list because it has really become the US Energy Starvation Department.

There was a big difference between the FDR administration, the Truman administration and the Obama administration. They each said they faced a do-nothing Congresses but FDR and Truman were not corrupt. The Obama morons think the EU problem is like the USA problem and can be fixed by spending EU taxpayer earnings on new debt. The Obama morons do not realize Europe is ten years ahead of Obama in their debt run-up and Obama is doing the same stupid debt run-up the EU and Japan did that got them into their messes. Europe is going through what the USA will go through if Obama continues to flush the wealth of America down his toilet bowl. The current American problem consists of Obama deficits plus the overhang of defaulted mortgages from when Dodd and Frank introduced corruption through Fanny and Freddie.

Former Olympus Corp. (7733) President Michael C. Woodford admitted that hundreds of millions of dollars in forged advisory fees were paid by the Japanese company Gyrus Group Plc in 2008. Woodward was fired when he discovered the crimes. Olympus, then denied there was any wrongdoing involving $687 million in advisory fees paid on the $2,000 million (34%) acquisition but now admits it put inflated fees on the books to hide company losses and deceive investors. Olympus last week admitted that three executives colluded to hide losses from investors. Japanese officials are investigating whether Olympus worked with organized crime to hide billions of dollars of losses, the New York Times reported. At least $4.2 billion remains unaccounted for, according to the report. Sounds like the same socialist crowd the former Democrat Governor of NJ (Jon Corzine) hung around with when he
stole $700 million dollars from MF Global. It’s the mob. Socialists say they are smarter than anyone else and “What is mine is mine and what is yours is mine to parcel out to you if you shut up and do what you are told.

Cloud storage is the greatest threat of loss to free world technology. America should be requiring that corporate technology be kept on closed systems with notification to corporate security when employees attempt to put corporate secrets on USB drives. Communist and socialist hackers will be able to steal data and then corrupt the cloud files

William Shternfeld, who pleaded guilty to conspiring to cheat investors with a fake hedge fund, was sentenced today to five years and three months in prison. West End Financial Founder Landberg Pleads Guilty to U.S. Securities Fraud.

World markets

China's average home prices ticked lower in October for the first time this year, official data showed, a victory in Beijing's fight against inflation but also a challenge if prices continue to fall and pop the real estate bubble.

European banks are swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.

China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


American Economy

Last Week
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good
CPI Oct -0.1% down from 0.3% deflation
Core CPI Oct 0.1% constant at 0.1% no inflation
Net long-term TIC Flows Sep $68.6B up from $57.9B good foreign investment in US
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 20 18 flat 18 flat lined again
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.

Today
Nov 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct

This Week
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3
Nov 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Nov. 2

Nov 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/19
Nov 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/12
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct
Nov 23 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct
Nov 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment
Nov 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/19

Market outlook November 21, 2011

The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about:
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm

What we expect today is an initial bear attack on the US markets possibly driving prices to this years lows again. Then we expect a bounce with the close down slightly for the day.

The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction

Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –0.1%, Hong Kong down –1.4%, India down –2.6%, and Japan down -0.3%.

European markets are down big again today in a range –2% to –3.8% half way through their day.

American market futures are down about -1.4% at 7:30 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.

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