Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Boone Pickens today on MSNBC said Obama people are the dumbest people who ever came to town and the Obama Energy director is an idiot saying we will h

Boone Pickens today on MSNBC said Obama people are the dumbest people who ever came to town and the Obama Energy director is an idiot saying we will have the energy plan in place within 30 yrs.

Boone Pitkins says Canada will sell it’s cheap oil to Red China because Obama and his administration are so stupid. We gave Obama a good opinion until his inauguration when Obama decided to do nothing and just blame others for his corrupt and stupid administration activities. Obama began his raids of corporations and his investigations this year to inform American free enterprise that they must buy Obama off or he will drive them into the ground like what used to be the fastest growing and best run bank in America, “Bank of America.” The money Obama is raising is an indication of the Obama Gestapo State corruption that uses government to intimidate corporations into funding the corrupt and moronic Obama administration.

We predict this will change rapidly next year when a Republican candidate is selected. The hatred of the Obama KGB will suddenly overwhelm the media. We predict 5% of the MSNBC staff ill be fired/reassigned before the 2012 elections. You can see the change has now occurred in the business Squawk Box show at 7AM. That is where they now discuss Obama objectively.

Newt Gingrich made consulting for mortgage company Freddie Mac and said he advised them against accepting mortgages that were given without ascertaining whether they could even be paid back. Obama supporters say the Obama administration paid Newt $1.6 million for the advice. This further informs the public ho stupid and corrupt the Obama administration is to hire and pay Newt for the advice at taxpayer expense so that it can now attempt to smear Newt. When asked at the debate what he did to earn a $300,000 payment in 2006, the former speaker said he “offered them advice on precisely what they didn’t do,” and warned the company that its lending practices were “insane.”

Gold and silver have peaked and volume of trading is fast falling. After reaching a high under Jimmy Carter gold fell 70% and silver fell over 84% and did not begin to recover for 29 years. Obama is a lot dumber than Jimmy was. See commodity prices:
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZG/C0

http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/SV_/C0


World markets

European shares slid into the red after the Bank of England raised the specter that Europe's debt crisis is spreading far outside the continent's periphery. The want a bail out from the smiling morons in the Obama administration.

EU finally makes a list of countries to be ejected from the 17-nation EURO bloc due to national immaturity and childlike socialist greed and selfishness. German and French politicians are already creating exit plans for the weakest members.

Unlike the USA the EU socialists decided to saddle the private investors with a 40% German haircut on Greek debt. That was a big mistake. That has set the stage for the withdrawal of private funds from the support of the EURO. In the USA the problem was not sovereign debt but the Democrat-Socialists giving away houses to people who could not afford the mortgage payments. Then the Socialist crony thieves like Soros and others started using private funds to speculate and give themselves $millions before their Ponzi scheme failed. American Social Security and Obama Care are also Ponzi schemes giving benefits now based on future earning power that will not exist unless the people on welfare come to realize they need to get a real life.

Oil hoarding is getting prices rising again. Peanut butter hoarding has tripled that price as USA crop damage takes a toll. A drought also hurt the USA corn crop this year. Selective shortages were also a characteristic of the “inept Jimmy Carter” years. It looks like Obama now will follow the Jimmy Carter defeat only Obama is a crook who will end up being a $billionaire. Obama can expect to be the first ex-president to serve a prison sentence.

China bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Germany rises: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The Swiss government and central bank has a target for the Swiss franc to halt its rise. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets show resiliency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


American Economy
Last week
Consumer Credit Sep grew 7.4B after declining 9.4B last month, good news since consumers are feeling better.
MBA Mortgage Index 11/05 +10.3% a big increase over the previous +0.2% meaning more houses to be sold.
Sales are up 15% year over year while inventories are up only 12%. That is great news.
Wholesale Inventories Sep down -0.1much better than the 0.4% last month point to need for higher production.
Crude Inventories 11/05 -1.370M down from 1.826M pointing to higher gas prices.
Initial Claims 11/05 390K continues to decline: from 397K good news
Continuing Claims 10/29 3615K down again 3683K
Export Prices ex-ag. Oct -1.5% down is good from 0.3%
Import Prices ex-oil Oct -0.2% low import hurts USA 0.2%
Trade Balance Sep -$43.1B slight improvement from -$45.6B
Treasury Budget Oct -$98.5 deficit still way too high though down from -$140.4B
Nov 11 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Nov 64.2 60.up from 60.9 last month, great news

Yesterday
PPI Oct -0.3% down sharply from 0.8% deflationary
Core PPI Oct 0.0% down from 0.2% deflationary
Retail Sales Oct 0.5% down from 1.1% not good
Retail Sales ex-auto Oct 0.6% flat from 0.6% not great
Empire Manufacturing Nov 0.61 up significantly from -8.48 very good
Business Inventories Sep 0.0% dropped from 0.5% very good

Today
Nov 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/12
Nov 16 8:30 AM CPI Oct
Nov 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Oct
Nov 16 9:00 AM Net long-term TIC Flows Sept
Nov 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct
Nov 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct
Nov 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Nov
Nov 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/12

This Week
Nov 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/12
Nov 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/05
Nov 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct
Nov 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct
Nov 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Nov
Nov 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct

Market Outlook November 16 2011
The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence.

Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential.
See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart3:symbol=^nya;range=5y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Demand from Asia should be sufficient for 6% increase volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Stock market update:
Asian Stocks were down last night. China down –2.51%, Hong Kong down -2%, India down –0.6%, Taiwan down –1.4% and Japan down –0.9%.

European markets are mixed today in a range 0.3% to -1.9 % half way through their day.

American market futures are down about –0.7% at 8 AM EST. They are an unreliable predictor.

If cash becomes king it will be because the world today runs on credit not cash. If the credit system goes bust there will not be enough cash to buy things and prices will fall. Nobody will want gold… they will want cash. That is why all the credit Bernanke has put into the system does not have the same effect as printing money. It is only credit that could dry up in a week.

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