Thursday, November 24, 2011

both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton

Obama does not realize that what the EU is going through is what Obama is setting the USA up to do and that is to default on debt and hurt everyone with a 50% haircut who owns US Treasuries in about 7 years. The USA needs to throw out the socialist Democrats who believe in spending beyond our means.

Patrick Caddell, who was a pollster to former President Jimmy Carter, and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Bill Clinton, both said Obama should abandon his re-election effort in favor of Hilary Clinton, in an opinion piece in the Nov. 21 edition of the Wall Street Journal. They both said that Hillary Clinton is “the only leader capable of uniting the country.”

World markets

Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal’s government credit rating to junk bond status

European Banking Authority may ask German lenders to boost their capital level by more than $16 billion as the regulator reviews their ability to withstand losses from the sovereign-debt crisis.

India’s rupee fell to a record 14.6 percent the worst- performing among Asia-Pacific’s 10 most-traded currencies and will also spur inflation and increase gasoline subsidy costs in a nation that imports 80 percent of its fuel.

European banks are said to be swapping worthless assets at full value to keep the illusion that they have the real cash not the accumulated losses. The USA banks did the same thing before the implosion by swapping worthless defaulting mortgage based derivative paper. By trading worthless paper that way, they do not have to recognize the true loss.

China double bounced. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart1:symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Germany bounced: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The Swiss bounced. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Emerging markets double bounce.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

American Economy

This Week
Industrial Production Oct 0.7% up from 0.2% very positive
Capacity Utilization Oct 77.8% up 77.4% good sign
Initial Claims 11/12 388K dropped from 390K very good
Continuing Claims 11/05 3608K dropped from 3615K good
Building Permits Oct 653K up from 594K seasonal correction expected drop number but instead it went up. Very good
Leading Indicators Oct were up 0.9 from 0.2 last month very good, starting Christmas before Halloween seems to be working.
Existing Home Sales Oct was 4.97 M up from 4.91M, very good
GDP - Second Estimate Q3 2.0% dropped from 2.5%
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 2.5% unchanged from 2.5%
That means inflation adjusted GDP dropped from 0% to –0.5%
MBA Mortgage Index 11/19 -1.2% much improved from previous -10.0%
Initial Claims 11/19 393K up slightly from 388K
Continuing Claims 11/12 3691K up significantly from 3608K
Personal Income Oct 0.4% up from 0.1%
Personal Spending Oct 0.1% down sharply from 0.6%
PCE Prices - Core Oct 0.1% up slightly from 0.0%
Durable Orders Oct -0.7% down slightly from -0.6%
Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct 0.7% down sharply from 1.8%
Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov 64.1 down slightly from 64.2
Crude Inventories 11/19 -6.219M down sharply from -1.056M

Market outlook November 25, 2011

Stocks hover above recent lows. The US and the world economy will not likely slip back into a recession until early next year under current trends in Obama incompetence. Obama cannot apparently destroy America without outside assistance. Market vector is predicting the same type of rally we have been talking about: Select stock index data, then stock index daily, then the index you want.
http://marketvector.com/data/index.htm

The recent bear attack on the US markets yesterday was weak on low volume and we are well above this years low. The bounce was weak also.

The housing market has stabilized but is still near the bottom.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits_and_construction

Obama knows how to create corruption with his spending and is pushing for an obscene $1Billion Presidential campaign fund, but he is too dumb when it comes to creating new jobs such as building the oil pipeline from Canada that would create heavy industry jobs and cut American production costs making the USA more competitive. When it comes to jobs, Obama is a moron.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=unemployment

We are at the critical downside resistance level now and it needs to bounce before the advance resumes. Complacency has not set in. We are now climbing the well-known bull market wall of fear. There is still just not much short seller fear at this point. We have not had the shorts squeezed out of the market yet. Look how low the VIX has to go before the market top is hit! A level as low as 20 would indicate complacency and the end of the bull market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

We advanced over 60% of the total recent decline recently and predict we could possibly have as much as 90% recovery. Market Vector agrees with us. But realize that as the upside potential is approached, then the downside risk exceeds the upside potential and it is time to lighten up. View 6 mos. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^NYA+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^nya;range=6m;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Demand from Asia should be sufficient for increased volumes even if the Euro crisis leads to a collapse in European sales, per Bremerhaven BLG analysis: Insert into explorer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

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