Uncertainty is an economic and jobs killer. Risk is something businesses and economies can hedge and deal with. But Obama’s Robin Hood redistribution and his coming January financial crisis are uncertainty. Obamascare is also a scary uncertainty because it puts 40 million indigents who squandered all they have in the doctor’s office demanding their entitlement to squander health care on their chosen lifestyle diseases. It places no limits whatsoever on how much healthcare they can also squander.

Independent voters are growing in numbers at the expense of Obama in battleground states most likely to determine this year’s presidential election. Mitt Romney is attracting more donations indicating that he is now leading in popularity.


Wall Street banks are increasingly choosing to hoard their U.S. bonds rather than sell them to the Federal Reserve as speculation grows that a slowing economy and global financial crisis will only make them more valuable. And when rates are small the %profit change is larger. The world’s biggest bond dealers offered an average of $7.2 billion in Treasuries a day to the central bank in June, down 40.5 percent from a high of $12.1 billion in October. While the amount of marketable U.S. government debt outstanding has risen to more than $10.5 trillion, Treasuries are in demand in a world where five nations in Europe have already had one or more bailouts, the U.S. economy is slowing and China is weakening.

We expect Apple stock prices to plummet after year-over-year profit plummets from the last quarter Steve Jobs announced at the end of July. The current management is putting up smoke screens with feeble dividend and buy-back plans. In March 2012, the Apple Company announced its plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 (today about 1.1% per year) per share of common stock beginning in the fourth quarter of 2012, subject to declaration by its Board of Directors. The Company further announced that the Board of Directors has authorized a program to repurchase up to $10 billion of the Company's common stock, commencing in 2013. Since Apple has 13,331,000,000 outstanding shares… $10 billion is worth a whopping $0.7 per share. But Apple is poised to easily lose $100 per share in face value when the disappointing quarterly earnings is reported vs. the record profits Steve Jobs reported last July before he passed away.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 45%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
China’s trade grew at about half the already reduced pace economists anticipated, fueling concern a slowdown is deepening in the world’s second-largest economy. Imports fell sharply as the economy contracted but that helped the trade surplus. While the Shanghai Composite Index has been up as much as 12 percent this year, it has fallen 13.6 percent since the high reversing the early gain due to concern the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy due to the Obama-Holder Depression.

U.K. manufacturing in May rose 1.2 percent from April; the Office for National Statistics said as the celebration of the Queen stimulated the sale of U.K. products. The U.K. Prepares plan to cut onshore wind subsidies which users complain provides unreliable and virtually useless power.

EU to spend $123 Billion more on failing Spanish Banks as the yield on Spain’s 10-year bond hits 7.07 % again in New York.

Japan’s machinery orders, an indication of capital spending, fell 14.8 percent in May from the previous month, the biggest drop since 2001. In a separate release, the Ministry of Finance said Japan’s current-account surplus was the smallest for the month of May since 1985.

Data showed Japan’s factory orders dropped, while Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said the nation’s economy faces “relatively large” downward pressure.
Emerging markets falter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering and 7% below the recent high but 20% higher than last year’s low: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Markets are becoming undecided.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
Yesterday
Consumer Credit in May more than doubled to $17.1B from $6.5B with little indication of any economic improvement.

This Week

Jul 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/07

Jul 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance May

Jul 11 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories May

Jul 11 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/07

Jul 11 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 6/20

Jul 12 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/07

Jul 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/30

Jul 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun

Jul 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun

Jul 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jun

Jul 13 8:30 AM PPI Jun

Jul 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Jun

Jul 13 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jul


Market outlook July 10, 2012
Bernanke is keeping interest rates low to make it easier for Obama to pay for increased American debt. To get out of the Obama socialist economic death spiral it is necessary to begin to raise interest rates and give businesses an incentive to find ways to increase profits. The US markets are likely to soon fall like a knife for at least a month with the coming worst profit quarter in a few years. If Obama is re-elected we predict a full-blown depression. Right now it is a dead heat in the race.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily be taking America into a profoundly deep bear market if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. It failed to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Obama is so inept; a deep depression can only be prevented if he is ejected, not elected. But Chief Justice John Roberts has assured that every stupid and lazy American will rally to re-elect Obama now because he provides the welfare for people who refuse to work for $10 or $15 per hour. The sell signal is seen in 3-month market cyclic data.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is again complacent and extremely dangerous.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and couldn’t get much worse.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart



Stock market update:
Asian markets were down last night. China down –0.3%, Hong Kong down –0.2%, Singapore down –1.7%, S.Korea down –0.4%, Taiwan down –0.8%, Japan down –0.4%.

European markets were up half way through their day in a range of –0.1% to +1.2%

American market futures are up at about 0.4% in after hour trading at 8:00AM EST.