Fitch Ratings said the US outlook remains negative as a result of the Obama’s inability to show leadership on how to cut the budget deficit. Uncertainty is an economic and jobs killer. Risk is something businesses and economies can hedge and deal with.

But Obama’s corruption, redistribution, and his coming January financial crisis are uncertainty. Obamascare is also a scary uncertainty because it puts 40 million indigents who squandered all they have in the doctor’s office demanding their entitlement to squander health care on their chosen lifestyle diseases and addictions. It places no limits whatsoever on how much healthcare they can also squander. San Bernardino’s City Council voted to become the third California city this year to file for bankruptcy, as it struggles with declining tax revenue, growing employee costs and accounting discrepancies in its ledgers.


Chief Justice John Roberts has dragged the Supreme Court down by betraying his duty to uphold the US Constitution. A Quinnipiac University poll just found that 54 percent of Republicans now disapproved the high court’s after it supported Obamascare while 35 percent approved. In April, Republicans approved of the court by 62 percent to 23 percent. The overall voter poll included those register liberals who are not likely to vote and without them the court's approval went down from 49% to 44% of all voters. The survey released today also shows single women favor Obama over Romney, 60 percent to 31 percent or roughly 2 to 1. Unmarried people overall favor Obama 54 percent to 34 percent, while married people back Romney 51 percent to 38 percent. Romney leads 54 percent to 35 percent among married men, and has a seven-point advantage among married women. Obama leads 47 percent to 38 percent among single men. The poll shows Obama with overwhelming support from black voters, 92 percent to 2 percent.

Independent voters who are growing in numbers at the expense of Democrats in swing battleground states will most likely to determine this year’s presidential election. Democrats just saw a net decline of about 480,000 in those six states but Republicans only added roughly 38,000 voters.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said the nation’s economy faces “relatively large” downward pressure and promoting investment growth is the key now to stabilizing China’s economy, signaling officials may boost spending to counter a slowdown that probably extended into a sixth quarter. Imports also fell as the economy contracted but that offset falling sales. While the Shanghai Composite Index has been up as much as 12 percent this year, it is now negative.

Portugal is considering giving foreign investors a haircut like Greece did. With Portugal’s 10-year bond yield above 10 percent, returning to the markets next year may be untenable, requiring more international aid despite the premier’s insistence he won’t seek further concessions.

Spanish miners are protesting against austerity now and Spain’s 10-year bond yield is now above 7 percent, which is considered unsustainable. EU to spend $123 Billion more on failing Spanish Banks as the yield on Spain’s 10-year bond hits 7.07 % again in New York.

Japan’s machinery orders, an indication of capital spending, fell 14.8 percent in May from the previous month, the biggest drop since 2001. Japan’s current-account surplus was the smallest since 1985 as factory orders dropped.

Emerging markets falter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany faltering and 7% below the recent high but 20% higher than last year’s low: Choose 2 or 5 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Markets are becoming undecided.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
Yesterday

Consumer Credit more than doubled in May to $17.1B from $6.5B with little indication of economic improvement.

This Week

Jul 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/07

Jul 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance May

Jul 11 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories May

Jul 11 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/07

Jul 11 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 6/20

Jul 12 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/07

Jul 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/30

Jul 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun

Jul 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun

Jul 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jun

Jul 13 8:30 AM PPI Jun

Jul 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Jun

Jul 13 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jul

Market outlook July 11, 2012
Bernanke is keeping interest rates low to make it easier for Obama to pay for increased American debt. To get out of the Obama socialist economic death spiral it is necessary to begin to raise interest rates and give businesses an incentive to find ways to increase profits. With the coming worst profit quarter in a few years the US markets are soon likely to fall like a knife for at least a month. If Obama is re-elected we predict a full-blown depression.

Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. Obama could easily be taking America into a profoundly deep bear market if he is re-elected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. It failed to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The market sell signal is also seen in 3-month market cyclic data.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is again complacent and extremely dangerous. The incompetent commentator on MSNBC this morning got this indicator completely backwards.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

The Baltic Dry Index is already anemic and couldn’t get much worse, but is turning worse again.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets were mixed last night. China up 0.5%, Hong Kong down –0.1%, S.Korea down –0.2%, Taiwan up 0.1%, Japan down –0.1%.

European markets were mixed half way through their day in a range of –0.4% to +0.6%

American market futures are up at about 0.4%