Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Mad Money’s Cramer said buy Google instead of Apple. Apple already is missing sales goals and they unloaded quite a bit on Wall Mart, which is not their customer market. Jim Cramer thinks Apple made very big mistake taking the free Google map application off I5 and compared it to when Microsoft pushed their own inferior products on their customers and was slammed with anti-trust suits. Apple will not beat I4 sales with inferior I5 applications and will face anti-trust action because they are abusing the court system with their anti-competitive lawsuits. Attorneys not technologists now run Apple. The lawyers will get a lot richer than the shareholders. Japanese companies are struggling to reduce defects in I5 screens that include the new technology and were unable to fill shipments before the iPhone debut. Apple, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard all fell Monday, leading Wall Street lower. Apple, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard all have made the same types of mistakes. They cut off their noses to spite their face.

Former Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich endorsed Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin, saying other Americans must "in good conscience" do the same. Todd Akin is the Senate candidate who does not think abortions should be subsidized by taxpayers.

See letter to the president
http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/haroldestes.asp

Christians are going to come out in droves in this election. They are worth a 9% last minute swing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=zqncQ85Q1qA

Obama election hype is pure economic manipulation and fakery. Housing prices have not recovered and existing home sales have gone nowhere, see below for the truth. There is no wealth effect except the sickening feeling of wealth being drained away to help ACORN redistribute wealth with free cell phones and food stamps to buy votes. Obama claimed Mitt Romney is taking more PAC money but Obama is lying there too. The Federal Election Commission Thursday showed that in total, Obama so far taken a total of $441.3 million from his intimidated Wall Street robber Barons versus the $283.6 million Romney has raised for his re-election.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=case

http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=existing

We can see repeatedly that where Obama announces things as improving, he later shuts his door and revises the old number lower by removing the improvement to adds it to the next report. This is one of the data falsifications we try to remove when we can. He does that so after the news is out the number is corrected so the accumulated error does not grow over time.

Obama kills the showing of 2016 on Fox news. In fact some say Obama started the rumor. HEADS UP FOR THIS SUNDAY NIGHT 9:00 PM…THE DOCUMENTARY OBAMA 2016 will not be on FOX at 9PM EST this Sunday. Obama doesn’t like it.

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/08/17/2016-obamas-america-movie-is-disturbingly-necessary/

Photos of recent presidents
http://www.presidentsinuniform.com/

Caterpillar, the world's largest construction equipment maker slashed its 2015 economic forecast Monday, citing weak economic conditions worldwide.

More corporations are revealing whom they make political contributions to. Target Corp. faced a boycott by gay rights groups in 2010 after the company donated $150,000 to a business group supporting Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer who did not support gay marriage. Chick-fil-A faced is boycotted and was condemned by a bi-sexual mayor simply because the entrepreneur did not support gay marriage. No state referendum ever supported gay marriage but the legislators are easily threatened so that is how it is spreading.

People who pay income taxes are slowly beginning to realize that Obama has targeted them to pay for all the "hair brained socialist experiments (like free cell phones), and cozy crony capitalism he is encouraging. Not a single bank president, who bet against his or her own clients, went to prison. Goldman Sacks was given a clean bill of health by Obama after they made a few large contributions to the corrupt gun running Obama administration.

According to the latest data available from the Treasury Department Government, debt securities held by Americans, excluding Ben Bernanke, rose 10.7 percent in the first seven months of this year to $3.61 trillion, compared with a 6.9 percent increase for foreign countries.

To be presidential, Obama must first try to be truthful. Elizabeth Warren, a Mass candidate for Senate, is withholding records that show she claimed Native American ancestry in job applications to get special treatment. This falsification is similar to Obama’s problem. Now Obama’s ATF people claim Bush gave Obama the idea to do the gun running because some of the ATF men who pushed it said it was nothing new for them to catch criminals. The only difference is that Obama-Holden recklessly increased gun running by 100 fold from a tiny sting operation. Market risk has risen enormously as the FED increase in liquidity that helps avoid a downturn makes risk grow because when there is a downturn there will be nothing left to prevent a complete world economic collapse… said Mohamed El-Erian on Squawk Box Friday. All the central banks are in lock step now and that is much more dangerous. Bank of America, the second largest US bank aims to cut 16000 jobs by year's end. Yes, Obama blames Bush for that too because Bush hired Bernanke.

Socialists are too stupid to realize people with money are already establishing residences in other countries to get out of socialist systems. They don’t like socialist dictatorships. Many of them originally came to America to escape socialist robber-morons in the first place. Now for the first time Americans are fleeing Obama’s socialist America and 26 successful people gave up their US citizenship last year. Charlie Chaplan did that in the last century.

The "D" word refers to economic "depression" as when Obama said Bush put us into a "Depression" well before the run on the bank that Senator Dodd started by announcing that a California bank was going to fail. Together Obama and Dodd (on the Senate Banking Commission) did something that no others in the history of America were stupid enough to do. They deliberately undermined confidence in American banks after they both had deliberately undermined the housing industry and the banks by requiring that real estate companies and banks give and have Fannie and Freddie underwrite "Liar Loans" to indigents who could not get home mortgages unless they lied about their income and savings. That is right, if the bank denied a loan because the applicant supplied no proof of income, and the applicant was a minority the bank and realtors became vulnerable to being sued for racial discrimination by the justice Department (now under Obama-Holder). These worthless loans were made into "financial derivatives" that people and institutions invested in. "Liar Loan Obama-Dodd derivatives are what caused the collapse of the American Banks in 2007.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows; Mitt Romney earns 46% of the vote while President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide. The Obama Great Depression would get a lot deeper if he wins.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World market this week

China with the world’s fastest economic growth isn’t helping Asia’s hedge funds. The average gain for 395 Asian hedge funds was only 1.6 percent this year through August, the worst of all regions and about half the 3.2 percent average global gain. Something does not compute there. How can that be when they grow at 7.8% even in the worst of time. It implies that China’s economic information is not worth as much as Obama’s.

Mosesdottir said. "Iceland is running out of time. There are parties and corporations like Deutsche Bank, whose market cap is double Iceland’s GDP, that will do anything they can to exchange their offshore kronur into foreign currencies." This is a high level admission that Iceland will continue irresponsible policies and eventually will not honor their debts and issue new currency.

The Ifo institute reported German business confidence unexpectedly fell in September for the fifth straight month in September.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande disagreed over the weekend on when to start joint oversight of the euro area’s banking industry. German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to go slowly into the whirlpool of quantitative easing because after 22 years Japan is still being sucked down.

China buys 28 percent of Australia’s mineral exports, and China’s slowdown has hurt Australia. The Aussie currency fell 1.6 percent in the past month even though the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities has risen about 18 percent from its low this year in June but are now falling as hedge funds reduce investments.

China’s stocks continue to decline.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Here is one that Obama will not touch and could stop in a second if it were not the truth. He does not believe in the American dream because it never was socialism.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=l-HqHSkYG-Y

Emerging markets. The other American markets are essential to the recovery of the world are showing some investor interest but no underlying economic improvement.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Emerging market composite indicates continued breaking down through the recent lows.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;



German stocks are faltering below the 2011 high. It gave a sell signal in 2011 and has to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 but below the 2011 high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
The market continues to test old resistance levels. Something has to break loose. This is the week Mitt Romney starts to campaign. Some states are already starting absentee balloting.

Precious metals ETF’s will likely retrace and close some of the large price gaps that occurred it the recent rapid rise.

Last week

Empire Manufacturing index Sep -10.4 collapsing from -5.9

Current Account Balance Q2 -$117.4B down from -$137.3B better trade balance

Net long-term TIC Flows Jul $67.0B up from $9.3B better investment flow

NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 40 up from 37 better housing index

Housing Starts Aug 750K up 4K from 746K

Building Permits Aug 803K down 9K 812K. Both the above are still down 66% under Obama. At Obama’s rate it will take 20 years to recover housing to before he and Senator Dodd said we were in a depression and tried to create a run on the banks. He has recovered less than 20% of what America lost to home liar mortgages that the leftists pushed and still push.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=permits

Existing Home Sales Aug 4.82M up from 4.47M but still down 40% under Obama. It will take Obama 16 years to recover housing prices at his current rate.
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=existing

Crude Inventories 09/15 8.534M up significantly from 1.994M some relief should be coming.

Initial Claims 09/15 385K bad up from 382K Obama distortion

Friday

Continuing Claims 09/8 3292K bad up from 3283K Obama distortion

Philadelphia Fed Sep -1.9 survey of manufacturing still tepid -7.1

Leading Indicators Aug -0.1% fell from 0.4%

This Week

Sep 25 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jul

Sep 25 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Sep

Sep 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jul

Sep 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/22

Sep 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug

Sep 26 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/22

Sep 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/22

Sep 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/15

Sep 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Aug

Sep 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Aug

Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q2

Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2

Sep 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Aug

Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Income Aug

Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Spending Aug

Sep 28 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Aug

Sep 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Sep

Sep 28 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep

Market outlook Sept 25, 2012
 The socialists would like to shut down Fox News completely, as they are one of the few who dare to exercise their free speech. In America the socialist-liberals say it is ok to paint the Madonna in dog feces and display it as art, but it is a hate crime in that recent Utube preview to point out that Mohammed took a wife who was only nine years old. The recent unrest is a hate crime against innocent Americans who stand up for the human rights of women and children who are violated and murdered even recently in Canada if they disagree with their husband or father. So far MSNBC still refuses to show the truth about what is going on in the Islamist world.

The DJT is beginning to converge with the DOW. This is more positive than before but not yet a buy signal. This could be the high for the year or the beginning of a breakout or a blowout.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

There still has been no stock market buy signal but if this run-up continues again it could happen within a few weeks. The NYSE did have a 3mo-cycle breakout but not a major 1yr-cycle breakout yet.

People forget that the DJI is not by itself the famous stock market indicator. The DJR must confirm the DJI for there to be a buy signal or sell signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. The DJI is the last "safe" place bulls go to reduce risk before the entire stock market collapses. Therefore the DJI is biased bullish and needs the DJR for balance. The DJ Rails continues to say sell even as people seek the false security of the DJ Industrials. The Divergence is now ending but there still is no DOW Buy Signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

12,000 Federal workers are reported getting government pensions exceeding $100,000/yr for life.

The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. It shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed again to meet even the last shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Resumption of the bull stock market is possible but it looks like the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession and a market that eventually declined for the last 22 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX back down in La-La Land. The low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the morons win or lose.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Well the Baltic Dry Index blip up just stopped. China may not have hit bottom yet. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets followed were mixed last night. China down -0.2%, Hong Kong up 0.0%, India up 0.1%, Seoul down -0.6%, Taiwan down -0.4%, Japan up 0.5%

European markets are down half way through their day in a range of 0.1% to –1.2%.

American market futures are up about 0.2% in after-hour trading at 8 AM EST. This indicator does not statistically correlate with anything.

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