Tuesday, January 7, 2014

January 10, 2014 The Dow was down 106 points the first week and down 139 points by the end of the second week. That indicates the bulls are either impotent and cannot control this leading indicator or they want a selloff and plan to come on strong in two weeks to rescue this leading indicator for the year. The stock market volume is half of what is was when Obama was elected and millions of more Americans are unemployed now and yet prices of stocks are about the same as they were before the Obama-Frank liar loan collapse of the American banking system. The liar-loans were to improve equality in housing and it did just that it made everyone in the world poorer. Even little fishing villages in Norway had their pensions invested in Obama-Frank liar loan derivatives that the banks were selling. What the liar loans did was not compassionate or very smart. Obama should redistribute some of his own money and help his Aunt and Uncle get off of welfare.


 
Uncle Sam’s Plantation shows how Obama’s present socialist government manipulates, controls, and ultimately devastates the lives of the poor—and what Americans must do to stop it. Once a hustler and welfare addict who was chewed up and spit out by the ruthless welfare system, Star Parker sheds much needed light on the bungled bureaucratic attempts to end poverty and reveals the insidious deceptions perpetrated by self-serving politicians like Obama.
http://www.amazon.com/Uncle-Sams-Plantation-Government-Enslaves/dp/B00AK3YKKS
 
Jan 9    This investigation of Christy must be part of a broader investigation of Obama, Rahm Emanuel, and the IRS.  Christy may have sabotaged the presidential campaign of Romney by inviting Obama for a pre-election publicity tour, but Christy’s petty sabotage is no match for Obama’s unconstitutional tapping in to all Americans (including Christy’s) phones and email. 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nsa-surveillance-row-us-phonetapping-revealed-by-edward-snowden-surely-runs-counter-to-constitution-says-judge-9009038.html
 
Romney had pulled out 1% ahead of Obama the weekend before Christy sabotaged Romney.  By the election a week later, Romney was 2% behind.  This is the first time in American history we are seeing evil emerge.  Nixon was not as bad.  Nixon did not authorize spying on Americans; he was impeached for a cover-up of Watergate.  Stolen top secret Vietnam War information was the reason the FBI broke in to the psychiatrist’s office.  The Obama administration spying on Christy was a Federal offense and it has happened recently to many patriotic Americans.  Obama and Christy are special cases of evil because they have been harassing little patriotic Americans.  This investigation of Christy must now be part of a broader investigation of Obama, Rahm Emanuel, and the IRS.  A very nasty form of corruption is now becoming virulent in America.
It has come out that poor judgment, no-bid corruption (nepotism) and incompetence is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy in 2014.  Incompetent friends of the Whitehouse influenced the decision to go with an unqualified corporation to build the failed Obamacare website.
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2013/10/29/hannity-krauthammer-michelle-obamas-connection-obamacare-no-bid-contract
 
Extending unemployment just makes the unemployment number look lower so Obama continues to expand socialism and destroy job creation.
 
Jan 8  You never hear socialists say they want equality of prosperity because the entire world would die laughing.  No socialization has ever delivered anything but equality of poverty and genocide.
Why is this bull run over?  This bull run is quite unique.  It is the first bull market where individual investors have kept leaving the market the entire time.  Volume on the NYSE and other exchanges fell starting as soon as Obama won the Democrat primary and has never stopped falling since.  The volume has even fallen through the entire market rally which was made by institutions leveraging up with QE and bidding up stock prices so they look good on paper.  Low QE rates made high debt cheap and helped distorted the balance sheets by making debt look cheap.
 
The market valuation took six years to get back where it was when Obama won the Democrat primary in the Fall of 2007 but the market volume has declined the entire time.  We have never seen that happen this way since Jimmy Carter.  American investors have been bailing out in every correction and the Funds can’t make money without the public investing.  The funds could now survive by cannibalizing other funds that are now valued more than the assets they hold.  But how can they do that without massive shorting of stocks and fleecing the public again when there are only half as many private investors to fleece?  This is about as bad as things got under Jimmy Carter when the market was locked into a trading range because Jimmy believed the environmentalists who said the world would run out of oil by 2010 so Jimmy and the other liberal geniuses stopped America looking for any more oil and America became dependent on Moslem oil and made the Jihadists rich.   It was during Jimmy Carter that seniors were so poor they were filmed by the news media buying dog food to eat and it was during Jimmy’s term that the liberals started letting all the lunatics out of state mental institutions.  It took a conservative like Ronald Regan to return sanity to American Government and we had an excellent economy until Bush tried to help the Moslem nations become real free nations.  That was as smart as it was for Democrats to let the lunatics out of the mental institutions.  So now we have Obama and now poor people are eating dog food again, homelessness is at a new high, poverty is at a new high and investors have lost confidence and have once again abandoned Wall Street which has been borrowing money to leverage up and pump up stock prices to these ridiculous levels.   Interest rates are starting to rise again and soon Wall Street will be forced to deleverage.  Then if America elects another Ronald Regan we can start with layoffs of all the IRS doing Obama’s harassment tasks and those in Obama health website consulting jobs.
 
Jan 7  Why is Obama buying $1 billion  of Russian helicopters for Afghan military when the Chinook built by Boeing is a better fit?  Is that the promise he made Putin which he said would happen if he was re-elected?
 
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2013/1207/Why-is-US-buying-Russian-helicopters-for-Afghan-military
 
World Economies
January 10, 2014  China appears to be reeling now from bad loans.  There is no soft landing possible.  While a Great Depression is possible it is more likely China is in for a very poor year ahead.
Angela Merkle was raised under communism and knows how stupid and evil socialist leaders can be.  She is just ignoring Obama who keeps criticizing Germany for having a trade surplus s.
The secret to Germany’s success is that they live within their means.  If every American saved 25% of their income they would be living within 75% of their means.  The Chinese immigrants to America saved more than 50% of income.  Obama’s relatives are on welfare because they spend more than they earn.  If Obama was smart enough to learn from Angela Merkle he could help this supporters achieve greater incomes by doing like the Chinese and Germans and just live within their means by saving 25% for a rainy day.  Easier said than done!  Obama should save his economic advice for his family and listen to Angela’s advice.
 
Jan 9  Europe’s rally in bonds is making the region’s sovereign debt crisis a fading memory and is relieving debt financing costs in the short run.  However to solve their debt problem they must use this opportunity to pay down debt not increase spending and get into an even more critical condition.
 
Jan 8, Venezuelan’s are now starving under socialism and are willing to drive four hours through army checkpoints every week from the city of Maracaibo to buy rice in Colombia for 10 times the government-set price back home.
Euro-Area Unemployment is still above 12% as their economy struggles.
 
Jan 7 
Emerging stocks fell for a fifth day as China let insurers invest in stocks of high risk Chinese startups and then tightened lending controls on banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forcing them to sell other developing-nation assets. Polish shares also slid and Turkey’s lira weakened.
..
The German market is topping out.  The best of the foreign markets is about 15% above the 2007 high which was about 7% above the 2000 high. It however failed to break out from its upper resistance level defined by 2000 and 2007. http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
 http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007.  It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003.  Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by destroying the Swiss confidentiality that protected people from the Hitlers. Stalins and the current socialists trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Obamcare inept management of $billions.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jan 6
Factory Orders Nov 1.8% back to normal from-0.5% after a poor
Services industry Dec 53.0 down sharply from54.6
Jan 7
Trade Balance Nov -$34.3B somewhat better due to shale gas and oil energy -$39.3B 
Jan 8
MBA Mortgage Index 01/04 2.6% NA NA NA –
ADP Employment Change Dec 238K up slightly from 215K---
But they are spinning this as good news on MSNBC/Pravda because they say they expected it to be worse.  That is just how bad things are that they intentionally lie and say they had expected things to get worse when all they ever do is hype the economy as recovering.  Under socialism everyone pretends they have work and the government pretends the people can earn a living.  It is true equality of poverty, the very thing Obama strives for because misery loves company.  Under socialism you never hear them say equality of prosperity because the entire world would die laughing.
Jan 9
Challenger Job Cuts Dec -5.9% improved from-20.6% due to high post XMAS cuts ending.  Challenger Job-Cut Report could be used as a leading indicator for new jobless claims,
Initial Claims 01/04 330K down slightly from 339K +
Continuing Claims 12/28 2865K up sharply from 2833K – More reason not to extend unemployment compensation beyond a year.  Welfare is available to those in need and gives a social impetus for people to look for a job rather than look like they have no skills.  Cutting unemployment extensions forces Obama to do something to help the economy.  Extending unemployment just makes the unemployment number look lower so Obama continues to expand socialism and destroy job creation.
Jan 10
Nonfarm Payrolls Dec 74K down sharply from 203K -------
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Dec down sharply from 196K ------
Unemployment Rate Dec 6.7% absurd drop from7.0%, Absolute incompetence of the Obama people doing the calculation -----
Hourly Earnings Dec 0.1% down from 0.2% -
Average Workweek Dec 34.4 down from 34.5 --
Wholesale Inventories Nov 0.5% down from1.4% ++
 
The Markets
January 10, 2014  How is it possible that Continuing Claims went up sharply yet the unemployment Rate is down sharply when the unemployment rate is the continuing unemployment claims divided by the number in the labor force.  This incompetent Obama administration must have used an incorrect employed labor force number that is too high by (7-6.3)/7=10%.  This is a huge 10% error.  America would be a lot better off if the next administration lays off every incompetent person the Obama administration has hired.  They are also hopelessly evil for using the IRS to harass Americans and use the NSA to spy on Republicans to bully and smear Christy, and for killing 30,000 Mexicans with guns sold to drug cartels to smear Americans who own guns.  The Obama people shamelessly blame everyone else for their complete incompetence in every aspect of American government that the Founding Fathers conceived.  
 
Jan 9
It has come out that corruption (helping incompetent friends) is the cause of the failure to get Socialized Medicine up and running.  Socialized Medicine will likely be the largest drag on the American economy I 2014. 
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/cgi-federal-scrutiny-obama-fundraising/2013/10/27/id/533310
 
Jan 8  We can expect no economic recovery of any significant amount while we have socialism expanding in America.
 
Jan 7   The biggest drag this year is going to be the increased size of government and a sharp drop in productivity as high paying/low performing government jobs replace high paying high performing private jobs in medicine and Obama takes America one step backward toward poverty and poor medical care.  The second major drag will be 50 million more people suddenly eligible for orthopedic and other expensive surgery of which 50 million do not pay taxes and 20 million of those have welfare income based on their number of fatherless children.
http://www.tmz.com/person/octomom/
 
The second blip in world trade is fading and world trade is still down about 75% from when Obama was elected but it looks like a bottom has formed. Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option.  Unfortunately they do not show back to 2007 when trade was five times higher than the current year highs.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
 
Based on history the  best time to buy stocks was when the VIX was above 30.  The best time to sell stocks was when the VIX is below 20.  It is now near 15.

World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

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