Many market analysts believed the rally was fueled by the growing hope that an economic recovery would start this summer. After all it is common knowledge that the market typically bottoms approximately six months before the economy bottoms. That is why the stock market is considered a leading indicator of economic activity. In fact the Fed had previously forecast in January that GDP would start to recover in the second half of this year and that the economy would grow between 2.5% and 3.3% in 2010. So the FED itself gave Jim Cramer and other analysts the hope that a bull market had begun. Now the FED has retracted that hope.
According to the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting the FED said that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, is likely to expand only slowly starting next year not this summer. That means the recent rally is at least six months premature of the coming bull market. In fact the FED could postpone their recovery prediction every time they meet. The central bank had also projected in January that unemployment would peak at 8.5% to 8.8% this year and fall to a range of 8% to 8.3% in 2010. But now the FED says that it expects the unemployment rate to rise more steeply into early next year before "flattening out at a high level over the rest of the year." The unemployment rate hit 8.5% nationwide in March, up from 8.1% a month earlier.
The Treasury Secretary is refusing to comment on the much publicized bank stress tests because it is surmised that the results show the TARP program may need to be expanded another $2 Trillion to calm the banking system.
We still believe with the next pull back we will be near what will be the low for the next ten years but we caution that given this administration’s corruption, profligate spending and socialist leanings they could stagnate the American economy for the next ten years as Franklin D Roosevelt did through the 1930s and as the Japanese did to their economy through the 1990s.
Market forces
The market yesterday rose on very low volume indicating the rally was out of steam.
Investors now fear that the trillions of dollars the government will print to finance the stimulation package will have great negative currency and inflation repercussions starting in six months. FDR made the same mistake during the Great Depression. Corruption was so bad during the FDR administration that FDR chose Harry Truman to run as his last vice presidential running mate because Harry Truman was nationally known to be cleaning up corruption in Missouri. Truman had no other known qualifications other than his extreme honesty.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying it is time to cherry pick into a positive market position and the market retests its lows. All shorts should already be covered and profit taking should be done. Now it is time to look for the new bargains.
Asian shares were up last night with Shanghai (China) up 1.4%, India up 0.6%, Japan up 3.7% and Hong Kong up 1.4%.
European markets are currently up in the range of -.1% to +0.9% mid way through their day today. .
US futures indicate the American markets will start the day flat. All the American equities markets remain extremely over bought. The FED indicated that the recession is here at least to the end of this year and they will revise their prediction of the eventual bottom of the economy in another six weeks. The US market decline will present select opportunities to astute investors seeking value by catching individual stocks that are forced down into higher value ranges.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Time to finish your analysis of stocks to cherry pick back in.
Stocks are declining now due to profit taking and the realization that many stocks advanced too quickly with no credible evidence of value. Stocks tend to maintain their relative values. When any stock suddenly advances 50% with no supporting headlines while the market advances 24% we can expect the big movers to immediately be pressured to drop 20% to realign the values. But that causes the average to decline putting pressure on all the other stocks that may have risen justifiably. That equilibrium valuation pressure contributes to upward and then downward value variances which for the astute investor represent opportunities to place limit orders to buy on the downward overshoots of stocks.
Right now you should already have been cherry picked out of the market between Jan 20 and Feb 27 when Administration market ignorance sent the market down through previous lows and resistance points and just about every stock/financial analyst hammered clueless Obama into getting informed about how free world markets work. Until then the anti-capitalist Obama administration did not realize even the Communist Chinese used our capitalist free markets and sold stocks to raise capital. Had President Obama not recently educated himself on the importance of the stock market our 401 plans were about to take another 15% decline. Instead Obama stated the importance of the stock market and although he had already caused a new sixteen year stock market low, the market turned around and rallied 24%. We now expect a decline of from 11% to a maximum of 19%. Since the market was up 24% a decline of 19% from the recent high would bring the market to down to a double bottom of this market’s all time low. Yes we believe we are near what will be the low for the next ten years but we caution that given this administration’s corruption, profligate spending and socialist leanings they could stagnate the American economy for the next ten years as Franklin D Roosevelt did through the 1930s and as the Japanese did to their economy through the 1990s.
Market forces
The market yesterday showed buying volume was drying up faster than selling was increasing. Again that is characteristic of a region where people are able to take profits in anticipation of future panic selling.
Investors now fear that the trillions of dollars the government will print to finance the stimulation package will have great negative currency and inflation repercussions starting in six months.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying it is time to cherry pick into a positive market position. All shorts should already be covered and profit taking should be done. Now it is time to look for the new bargains.
Asian shares were down sharply last night with Shanghai (China) down -3.8%, India up 2%, Japan down -2.7% and Hong Kong down -3%. It is becoming obvious that the Communist Chinese have been falsifying economic and market data. They probably have been growing at a rate less than half of what they claim. Their recession could lead to the overthrow of socialism if it becomes severe. The emerging market funds certainly have been underperforming relative to the apparent corrupt socialist's statistics. Socialist corruption could have a negative impact on many ETFs. Why are the socialists always, always, always so corrupt, so controlling and such abusers of human rights? We should not say the word “always” except when it comes to acknowledging socialist state oppression of individual liberties.
European markets are currently mixed in the range of -0.3% to +0.6% mid way through their day today. The EU is contracting faster than seen in 40 years.
US futures indicate the American markets will start the day mixed. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years. The US markets declining and will present select opportunities to astute investors seeking value by catching individual stocks that are forced down into higher value ranges.
It is expected that earnings reports will now be dismal but the Pravda media spin will continue be positive. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is still accelerating slightly. We may see this bottom again in less than a year from now. George Soros made two investments in 2008. He invested heavily in Obama’s campaign and is betting on the collapse if America’s currency. He is seeking a basket of currencies and is buying the ones that will benefit and selling America short. American can still throw some of the corrupt bums out of congress in 2010 and Barron George Soros with them. Count Obama will have to wait until 2012.
Government corruption under the socialists is a cause of a growing crisis of confidence in Obama’s economic policy which seems to be the redistribution of wealth into Washington politician’s pocket books not the poor. Banking Committee Democrat-Socialist Senators are doing many property deals. To avoid the obvious corruption of buying expensive property and giving it to the Senators at an obvious illegal lower price than the purchase price, the corporations that want to bribe the Senators bought property five or ten years ago and now sell it to the corrupt officials at close to the original un inflated price. In that manner corrupt Senators profit from the five or ten years of inflation because they don’t pay for the inflation. But when they sell the property they reap the 60% to 100% accumulated inflation in price.
Why do the socialist take bribes and still force banks to give mortgages to undeserving people… when the socialists will not allow bonuses for the disgraced bankers who were forced to follow Senator Dodd’s and Rangel’s obviously inept and corrupt mortgage banking policies?
Right now you should already have been cherry picked out of the market between Jan 20 and Feb 27 when Administration market ignorance sent the market down through previous lows and resistance points and just about every stock/financial analyst hammered clueless Obama into getting informed about how free world markets work. Until then the anti-capitalist Obama administration did not realize even the Communist Chinese used our capitalist free markets and sold stocks to raise capital. Had President Obama not recently educated himself on the importance of the stock market our 401 plans were about to take another 15% decline. Instead Obama stated the importance of the stock market and although he had already caused a new sixteen year stock market low, the market turned around and rallied 24%. We now expect a decline of from 11% to a maximum of 19%. Since the market was up 24% a decline of 19% from the recent high would bring the market to down to a double bottom of this market’s all time low. Yes we believe we are near what will be the low for the next ten years but we caution that given this administration’s corruption, profligate spending and socialist leanings they could stagnate the American economy for the next ten years as Franklin D Roosevelt did through the 1930s and as the Japanese did to their economy through the 1990s.
Market forces
The market yesterday showed buying volume was drying up faster than selling was increasing. Again that is characteristic of a region where people are able to take profits in anticipation of future panic selling.
Investors now fear that the trillions of dollars the government will print to finance the stimulation package will have great negative currency and inflation repercussions starting in six months.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying it is time to cherry pick into a positive market position. All shorts should already be covered and profit taking should be done. Now it is time to look for the new bargains.
Asian shares were down sharply last night with Shanghai (China) down -3.8%, India up 2%, Japan down -2.7% and Hong Kong down -3%. It is becoming obvious that the Communist Chinese have been falsifying economic and market data. They probably have been growing at a rate less than half of what they claim. Their recession could lead to the overthrow of socialism if it becomes severe. The emerging market funds certainly have been underperforming relative to the apparent corrupt socialist's statistics. Socialist corruption could have a negative impact on many ETFs. Why are the socialists always, always, always so corrupt, so controlling and such abusers of human rights? We should not say the word “always” except when it comes to acknowledging socialist state oppression of individual liberties.
European markets are currently mixed in the range of -0.3% to +0.6% mid way through their day today. The EU is contracting faster than seen in 40 years.
US futures indicate the American markets will start the day mixed. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years. The US markets declining and will present select opportunities to astute investors seeking value by catching individual stocks that are forced down into higher value ranges.
It is expected that earnings reports will now be dismal but the Pravda media spin will continue be positive. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is still accelerating slightly. We may see this bottom again in less than a year from now. George Soros made two investments in 2008. He invested heavily in Obama’s campaign and is betting on the collapse if America’s currency. He is seeking a basket of currencies and is buying the ones that will benefit and selling America short. American can still throw some of the corrupt bums out of congress in 2010 and Barron George Soros with them. Count Obama will have to wait until 2012.
Government corruption under the socialists is a cause of a growing crisis of confidence in Obama’s economic policy which seems to be the redistribution of wealth into Washington politician’s pocket books not the poor. Banking Committee Democrat-Socialist Senators are doing many property deals. To avoid the obvious corruption of buying expensive property and giving it to the Senators at an obvious illegal lower price than the purchase price, the corporations that want to bribe the Senators bought property five or ten years ago and now sell it to the corrupt officials at close to the original un inflated price. In that manner corrupt Senators profit from the five or ten years of inflation because they don’t pay for the inflation. But when they sell the property they reap the 60% to 100% accumulated inflation in price.
Why do the socialist take bribes and still force banks to give mortgages to undeserving people… when the socialists will not allow bonuses for the disgraced bankers who were forced to follow Senator Dodd’s and Rangel’s obviously inept and corrupt mortgage banking policies?
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Two premature rallies so far.
If Senator Dodd had not leaked which banks were weak in mid 2008 there would have been no run on those American banks. If candidate Obama had not said we were in a depression as part of his blame game so that the public would vote out the Republicans…. there would have been no threat of a Depression and the media would not have pounded the markets last year with their pessimism. If Geithner had not recommended that Lehman Brothers be left to fail the financial markets would not have frozen. If Obama were not so ignorant of American history and economics, the market would not have plummeted on his election day and panicked again on his inauguration day.
The first Obama rally was predicated on the basis that the media would not let Obama fail and all Obama had to do was want the economy and the financial markets to recover quickly. That rally failed in January because Obama showed he was completely clueless, he thought that the stock market was just another economic barometer, and he continued his negative blame game instead of taking charge. In the mean time his popularity plummeted because he did not know that America’s retirement money is invested in American private enterprise. He was only familiar with the government handouts and corruption of Chicago community activism and Illinois politics. Five of his cabinet appointments were confessed tax cheaters and Geithner was appointed to the Treasury in spite of his falsifying information to the IRS which he now administers. Panic selling began again and the market dropped 20% quickly in February 2009.
The second Obama rally began after the financial press and especially Jim Cramer lambasted Obama for his ignorance and President Obama got briefed and then understood that the capital markets are where most capital is raised in a capitalist system and he said he did not want to destroy capitalism. After all, even China and Russia are trying capitalism and all the socialist states failed when they abandoned capitalism. That last rally has run its course now and the press is doing its best to put a positive spin on the markets and the Obama administration. The rally almost recovered the points it lost the month before and is now at the level of the first rally. A lot of people are fed up now and want to get out. The phony Obama Pravda press is now touting that “golly gee” there really never was a risk of a depression and the economy will recover this summer a full year before the stimulation package can take effect, and before Geithner has finished making the banks solvent. All the press is doing is showing that one cannot believe anything the Obama Administration says because it is all corrupt politics for personal gain and not one bit of truth. They want investors to believe it will be over this summer so investors will buy stocks right now and prove how smart the political hacks advising Obama are, and how dumb American investors really are. That is why the socialists want to take the money away from investors and give it to the government administration to invest. It is true; many individual investors believe anything their community activist tells them.
Market forces
Cash flow was out of the markets yesterday. Buying was drying up more than selling was increasing. That is characteristic of a region where people bought stocks before and are able to take profits now in anticipation of future panic selling. The trillions of dollars the government will print to spend the stimulation package will have great repercussions starting in six months and continuing to when America has a president with courage enough to end the inflation the spending will cause. The media is not reporting the truth when the truth shows the ineptness of the government. The American press has become Pravda.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying this rally is over and it failed to set a new high by margins of 2% to 11%. Market volume has dried up showing there is very little money left on the sidelines and we are at a market level where some investors can take profits before the next Obama panic. We will wait for a buying opportunity.
Asian shares were mixed last night with Shanghai (China) up 0.8%, India up 1.8%, Japan down 0.3% and Hong Kong down 0.3%.
European markets are currently down in the range of -1.3% to -2% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will be down sharply at the start today, over 100 points in the DOW. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years. All the US markets are near their January highs and strong resistance levels.
It is expected that earnings reports will now be dismal but the Pravda media spin will continue be positive. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is still accelerating slightly. We believe we have seen a local stock market bottom but this is still a trader’s market and we expect to see this bottom again and again at the most unpredictable times similar to as occurred between 1973 and 1982. We may see this bottom again even a year from now if Soros is successful in destroying the American dollar. George Soros made two investments in 2008. He invested heavily in Obama’s campaign and is betting on the collapse if America’s currency.
Government corruption under the socialists is a cause of a growing crisis of confidence in Obama’s economic policy which seems to be the redistribution of wealth into Washington politician’s pocket books not the poor. Banking Committee Democrat-Socialist Senators are doing many property deals. To avoid the obvious corruption of buying expensive property and giving it to the Senators at an obvious illegal lower price than the purchase price, the corporations that want to bribe the Senators bought property five or ten years ago and now sell it to the corrupt officials at close to the original un inflated price. In that manner corrupt Senators profit from the five or ten years of inflation because they don’t pay for the inflation. But when they sell the property they reap the 60% to 100% accumulated inflation in price.
Why do the socialist take bribes and still force banks to give mortgages to undeserving people… when the socialists will not allow bonuses for the disgraced bankers who were forced to follow Senator Dodd’s and Rangel’s obviously inept and corrupt mortgage banking policies?
The first Obama rally was predicated on the basis that the media would not let Obama fail and all Obama had to do was want the economy and the financial markets to recover quickly. That rally failed in January because Obama showed he was completely clueless, he thought that the stock market was just another economic barometer, and he continued his negative blame game instead of taking charge. In the mean time his popularity plummeted because he did not know that America’s retirement money is invested in American private enterprise. He was only familiar with the government handouts and corruption of Chicago community activism and Illinois politics. Five of his cabinet appointments were confessed tax cheaters and Geithner was appointed to the Treasury in spite of his falsifying information to the IRS which he now administers. Panic selling began again and the market dropped 20% quickly in February 2009.
The second Obama rally began after the financial press and especially Jim Cramer lambasted Obama for his ignorance and President Obama got briefed and then understood that the capital markets are where most capital is raised in a capitalist system and he said he did not want to destroy capitalism. After all, even China and Russia are trying capitalism and all the socialist states failed when they abandoned capitalism. That last rally has run its course now and the press is doing its best to put a positive spin on the markets and the Obama administration. The rally almost recovered the points it lost the month before and is now at the level of the first rally. A lot of people are fed up now and want to get out. The phony Obama Pravda press is now touting that “golly gee” there really never was a risk of a depression and the economy will recover this summer a full year before the stimulation package can take effect, and before Geithner has finished making the banks solvent. All the press is doing is showing that one cannot believe anything the Obama Administration says because it is all corrupt politics for personal gain and not one bit of truth. They want investors to believe it will be over this summer so investors will buy stocks right now and prove how smart the political hacks advising Obama are, and how dumb American investors really are. That is why the socialists want to take the money away from investors and give it to the government administration to invest. It is true; many individual investors believe anything their community activist tells them.
Market forces
Cash flow was out of the markets yesterday. Buying was drying up more than selling was increasing. That is characteristic of a region where people bought stocks before and are able to take profits now in anticipation of future panic selling. The trillions of dollars the government will print to spend the stimulation package will have great repercussions starting in six months and continuing to when America has a president with courage enough to end the inflation the spending will cause. The media is not reporting the truth when the truth shows the ineptness of the government. The American press has become Pravda.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying this rally is over and it failed to set a new high by margins of 2% to 11%. Market volume has dried up showing there is very little money left on the sidelines and we are at a market level where some investors can take profits before the next Obama panic. We will wait for a buying opportunity.
Asian shares were mixed last night with Shanghai (China) up 0.8%, India up 1.8%, Japan down 0.3% and Hong Kong down 0.3%.
European markets are currently down in the range of -1.3% to -2% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will be down sharply at the start today, over 100 points in the DOW. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years. All the US markets are near their January highs and strong resistance levels.
It is expected that earnings reports will now be dismal but the Pravda media spin will continue be positive. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is still accelerating slightly. We believe we have seen a local stock market bottom but this is still a trader’s market and we expect to see this bottom again and again at the most unpredictable times similar to as occurred between 1973 and 1982. We may see this bottom again even a year from now if Soros is successful in destroying the American dollar. George Soros made two investments in 2008. He invested heavily in Obama’s campaign and is betting on the collapse if America’s currency.
Government corruption under the socialists is a cause of a growing crisis of confidence in Obama’s economic policy which seems to be the redistribution of wealth into Washington politician’s pocket books not the poor. Banking Committee Democrat-Socialist Senators are doing many property deals. To avoid the obvious corruption of buying expensive property and giving it to the Senators at an obvious illegal lower price than the purchase price, the corporations that want to bribe the Senators bought property five or ten years ago and now sell it to the corrupt officials at close to the original un inflated price. In that manner corrupt Senators profit from the five or ten years of inflation because they don’t pay for the inflation. But when they sell the property they reap the 60% to 100% accumulated inflation in price.
Why do the socialist take bribes and still force banks to give mortgages to undeserving people… when the socialists will not allow bonuses for the disgraced bankers who were forced to follow Senator Dodd’s and Rangel’s obviously inept and corrupt mortgage banking policies?
Monday, April 6, 2009
Don’t buy now, buy after the pull back.
The Re spiral method that uses the MACD and the Parabolic SAR has indicated that the next pullback will be a buying opportunity.
This will not be a normal recovery. This recovery depends on fiscal spending for stimulation, FED monetary policy for anti-inflation measures, plus a new massive printing of money because China and Japan will not buy all debt the US needs to shed in the process. Zero FED interest rate will not stimulate purchases of US debt so they are now printing money to provide the additional money to spend. The Europeans refuse to do the same so that means US currency will come under repeated devastating attacks. Each attack will disrupt trade and cause unpredictable changes in exchange rates that will result is large destabilizing losses and gains that depend on when the exchanges occur. For the first time we will see large international companies brought to their knees as mistakes are made. There will be large swings in the values of equities, price inflation to hedge against currency losses and bonds will be under periodic and accelerating attack. A currency storm is brewing.
We believe we probably have seen the stock market lows but we will likely see them two or three more times before the world economies settle and recover. And when the recovery occurs we will see high taxes on hydrocarbons and a lot fewer automobiles on the road.
Market forces
Cash flow was again slightly positive into the markets Friday. The media is not reporting the truth on volume. As we have said before, three of the US market indices publish identical volumes which we have found to be fabricated and anybody who knows anything knows those volumes have been incorrect since early 2005. Volume is not high as they indicate. The actual volume during the recent rally has been average to disappointing. The rally volume and cash flow has been weak and over hyped.
Obama socialist threaten publicly to replace many bank executives with Democrat Socialist political hacks to channel more taxpayer cash handouts into Democrat-socialist campaign coffers.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying this rally is over and it failed to set a new high by margins of 2% to 11%
Friday’s surge was again on average volume. It did however put the Parabolic SAR and MACD back in a countdown towards a buying opportunity on the next decline. The last decline was preceded by an outright sell because as Jim Cramer pointed out… the Obama administration had been ignorant of economics. Now the Obama administration is more knowledgeable so the Obama market collapse seems to be over for the moment. However the battle for a recovery has not even started. The stimulation package hasn’t even started and will not be up to full speed until the next election year in 2010. That is when the currency crisis will be getting up to full disruption too.
Asian shares were positive last night with Shanghai (China) closed, India up 1.8%, Japan up 1.2% and Hong Kong up 3.1%. Asian markets did not have as severe a collapse in February as US markets had due to Administration exhibitions of ignorance. Therefore the Asian rallies have set new highs above their January highs. They continue to lead the world markets. But they will become erratic when the currency storm arrives.
European markets are currently up in the range of 0.3% to 0.7% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will be flat at the start today. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years. All the US markets are near their January highs and strong resistance levels.
It is expected that earnings reports will now be dismal but the media spin will be positive. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is still accelerating. We believe we have seen the stock market bottom but this is still a trader’s market and we expect to see this bottom again and again at the most unpredictable times similar to as occurred between 1973 and 1982.
Government corruption under the socialists is a cause of a growing crisis of confidence in Obama’s economic policy which seems to be the redistribution of wealth into Washington politician’s pocket books not the poor.
This will not be a normal recovery. This recovery depends on fiscal spending for stimulation, FED monetary policy for anti-inflation measures, plus a new massive printing of money because China and Japan will not buy all debt the US needs to shed in the process. Zero FED interest rate will not stimulate purchases of US debt so they are now printing money to provide the additional money to spend. The Europeans refuse to do the same so that means US currency will come under repeated devastating attacks. Each attack will disrupt trade and cause unpredictable changes in exchange rates that will result is large destabilizing losses and gains that depend on when the exchanges occur. For the first time we will see large international companies brought to their knees as mistakes are made. There will be large swings in the values of equities, price inflation to hedge against currency losses and bonds will be under periodic and accelerating attack. A currency storm is brewing.
We believe we probably have seen the stock market lows but we will likely see them two or three more times before the world economies settle and recover. And when the recovery occurs we will see high taxes on hydrocarbons and a lot fewer automobiles on the road.
Market forces
Cash flow was again slightly positive into the markets Friday. The media is not reporting the truth on volume. As we have said before, three of the US market indices publish identical volumes which we have found to be fabricated and anybody who knows anything knows those volumes have been incorrect since early 2005. Volume is not high as they indicate. The actual volume during the recent rally has been average to disappointing. The rally volume and cash flow has been weak and over hyped.
Obama socialist threaten publicly to replace many bank executives with Democrat Socialist political hacks to channel more taxpayer cash handouts into Democrat-socialist campaign coffers.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying this rally is over and it failed to set a new high by margins of 2% to 11%
Friday’s surge was again on average volume. It did however put the Parabolic SAR and MACD back in a countdown towards a buying opportunity on the next decline. The last decline was preceded by an outright sell because as Jim Cramer pointed out… the Obama administration had been ignorant of economics. Now the Obama administration is more knowledgeable so the Obama market collapse seems to be over for the moment. However the battle for a recovery has not even started. The stimulation package hasn’t even started and will not be up to full speed until the next election year in 2010. That is when the currency crisis will be getting up to full disruption too.
Asian shares were positive last night with Shanghai (China) closed, India up 1.8%, Japan up 1.2% and Hong Kong up 3.1%. Asian markets did not have as severe a collapse in February as US markets had due to Administration exhibitions of ignorance. Therefore the Asian rallies have set new highs above their January highs. They continue to lead the world markets. But they will become erratic when the currency storm arrives.
European markets are currently up in the range of 0.3% to 0.7% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will be flat at the start today. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years. All the US markets are near their January highs and strong resistance levels.
It is expected that earnings reports will now be dismal but the media spin will be positive. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is still accelerating. We believe we have seen the stock market bottom but this is still a trader’s market and we expect to see this bottom again and again at the most unpredictable times similar to as occurred between 1973 and 1982.
Government corruption under the socialists is a cause of a growing crisis of confidence in Obama’s economic policy which seems to be the redistribution of wealth into Washington politician’s pocket books not the poor.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Jim Cramer said, “Don’t buy now, buy after the pull back.”
We believe the rally will now falter and estimate the pullback will be between 15% and 25%.
If you look at the market highs of early January, the lows of early March and the highs now in early April you realize that not only was the March decline the worst since the 1990s but the current highs are still 4% to 13% lower than the previous January highs. Declining lows and declining highs is not bullish despite the last gain of over 24%.
................H.........L.........H........Loss......Gain......PtoP Loss
DJI.........9175...6440...7978...-29.8%..23.9%.....-13.0%
S&P..........944.....667.....834....-29.3%...25.0%....-11.7%
NASDAQ.1666....1266....1603...-24.0%...26.6%.....-3.8%
The table shows the previous DJI high in early January and the March low in early march compared to yesterday. It shows the loss from January to March was 29.8% and the gain from March to April was 23.9%.
The recent peak to peak DJI loss is still 1197 points or 13%.
The peak to peak S&P loss is still 110 points or 11.7%.
The peak to peak NASDAQ loss is still 63 points or 3.8%
A bull market is not defined as a greater than 20% upward move. But that is nonsense because the move was preceded by a 30% decline the month before. The unprecedented chaos just means the market is volatile. A bull market requires there be a new high and ascending lows. The DJI will not produce a DOW buy signal until it rises more than 1197 more points. The market will probably test its bottom again before it is time to buy.
The recent rally put the re-spiral/MACD indicators back on track for a countdown to a buy signal. But remember the best time to buy is between when the first buy signal occurs and the re-spiral second buy signal (the confirmation signal) occurs. But it is not time to buy yet.
Market forces
Cash flow was slightly positive into the markets yesterday even though half the gains were whipped out by the end of the session. Volume during this most recent rally was barely more than the 50 day moving average. That is not good. This current high is significantly lower than the previous high… and that is not good. The last low was lower than the previous low… and that is not good. Finally the monthly market swings are now greater than + or - 20%... and that is chaos.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying this rally is over and it failed to set a new high by margins of 4% to 13%
Yesterdays surge was again on low volume. It did however alter the recently negative Parabolic SAR and MACD trading trends and put them back in a countdown towards a buy signal. This is still a trader's market not a long-term investors market but after the next major decline it may be time to buy again.
Asian shares were flat last night with Shanghai (China) down 0.2%, India up 0.2%, Japan up 0.3% and Hong Kong up 0.2%.
European markets are currently mixed in the range of -0.4% to 0.8% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will be down about slightly at the start today. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years.
It is expected that today it will be reported that layoffs are accelerating indicating that the recession is still accelerating. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is worse now than ever before in 60 years. But America has always come through in the past. We hope that this next market decline will finally show that the stock market has passed the low for this recession.
If you look at the market highs of early January, the lows of early March and the highs now in early April you realize that not only was the March decline the worst since the 1990s but the current highs are still 4% to 13% lower than the previous January highs. Declining lows and declining highs is not bullish despite the last gain of over 24%.
................H.........L.........H........Loss......Gain......PtoP Loss
DJI.........9175...6440...7978...-29.8%..23.9%.....-13.0%
S&P..........944.....667.....834....-29.3%...25.0%....-11.7%
NASDAQ.1666....1266....1603...-24.0%...26.6%.....-3.8%
The table shows the previous DJI high in early January and the March low in early march compared to yesterday. It shows the loss from January to March was 29.8% and the gain from March to April was 23.9%.
The recent peak to peak DJI loss is still 1197 points or 13%.
The peak to peak S&P loss is still 110 points or 11.7%.
The peak to peak NASDAQ loss is still 63 points or 3.8%
A bull market is not defined as a greater than 20% upward move. But that is nonsense because the move was preceded by a 30% decline the month before. The unprecedented chaos just means the market is volatile. A bull market requires there be a new high and ascending lows. The DJI will not produce a DOW buy signal until it rises more than 1197 more points. The market will probably test its bottom again before it is time to buy.
The recent rally put the re-spiral/MACD indicators back on track for a countdown to a buy signal. But remember the best time to buy is between when the first buy signal occurs and the re-spiral second buy signal (the confirmation signal) occurs. But it is not time to buy yet.
Market forces
Cash flow was slightly positive into the markets yesterday even though half the gains were whipped out by the end of the session. Volume during this most recent rally was barely more than the 50 day moving average. That is not good. This current high is significantly lower than the previous high… and that is not good. The last low was lower than the previous low… and that is not good. Finally the monthly market swings are now greater than + or - 20%... and that is chaos.
Market Outlook
All the signs are saying this rally is over and it failed to set a new high by margins of 4% to 13%
Yesterdays surge was again on low volume. It did however alter the recently negative Parabolic SAR and MACD trading trends and put them back in a countdown towards a buy signal. This is still a trader's market not a long-term investors market but after the next major decline it may be time to buy again.
Asian shares were flat last night with Shanghai (China) down 0.2%, India up 0.2%, Japan up 0.3% and Hong Kong up 0.2%.
European markets are currently mixed in the range of -0.4% to 0.8% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will be down about slightly at the start today. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years.
It is expected that today it will be reported that layoffs are accelerating indicating that the recession is still accelerating. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is worse now than ever before in 60 years. But America has always come through in the past. We hope that this next market decline will finally show that the stock market has passed the low for this recession.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Yesterday was April bull's day. Will we look back and say it was April foolish bull's day?
The end of neo-socialist economic fear mongering has lifted the market psychology and we are now in an extreme overbought market condition. The negatives of socialist national debt, higher taxes, and a high "Misery Index" have not started to sink in yet. Americans are now being laid off at the highest rate in history but now that the trillion dollar spending bills have been passed the socialists are euphoric.
Market forces
Cash flow was again out of the markets yesterday. But the first day of the fund’s second quarter got off to a good start. MSNBC continues to apply lipstick to the stock market. Asian and European markets have soared as the dour socialists have become happy with the $billions they can redistribute to ACORN and other friends back home. They will be creating many millionaires and putting incompetent socialists on the boards of all the banks and corporations that take any government assistance.
It is expected that the new socialist GM board members will ensure that if GM goes under the USA will guarantee all the 90% pensions that union members have and will get when they retire at age 55 or older. It is the unions who are driving the US automobile industry out of business and who have refused to compromise even now. Now the auto companies can go out of business and taxpayers will pay the union members for doing nothing. So what is new? What a great rich benevolent country we have. And yesterday Obama told the world economic summit that we must redistribute American wealth to the whole world. God bless the socialists! They don't like to pay their own taxes but they know how to have a good party and they do take care of the indolent voters. The poorer Americans become... the greater the number of socialist leaning voters. Socialism grows as countries get poorer and the indolent slowly become the voting majority. And so socialists have an incentive to screw up every economy in the world.
Market Outlook
Yesterdays surge was again on low volume but apparently caused by a slowing of the rate people are leaving the market. It did not alter the recently negative Parabolic SAR and MACD trading trends but a continued buying surge could make those trends positive again. This is a trader's market not a long-term investors market and cash was still flowing out of the market yesterday.
Asian shares were up last night with Shanghai (China) up 0.7%, India up 4.5%, Japan up 4.4% and Hong Kong up 7.4%.
European markets are up in the range of 3.3% to 4.8% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will up about 200 points at the start today. That is 50 points more than the market rose yesterday. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years.
Euphoria is a sign of a market peaking. The volume was low yesterday and cash flowed out of the market for the second day in a row. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is worse now than ever before in US history. But America has always come through in the past.
Market forces
Cash flow was again out of the markets yesterday. But the first day of the fund’s second quarter got off to a good start. MSNBC continues to apply lipstick to the stock market. Asian and European markets have soared as the dour socialists have become happy with the $billions they can redistribute to ACORN and other friends back home. They will be creating many millionaires and putting incompetent socialists on the boards of all the banks and corporations that take any government assistance.
It is expected that the new socialist GM board members will ensure that if GM goes under the USA will guarantee all the 90% pensions that union members have and will get when they retire at age 55 or older. It is the unions who are driving the US automobile industry out of business and who have refused to compromise even now. Now the auto companies can go out of business and taxpayers will pay the union members for doing nothing. So what is new? What a great rich benevolent country we have. And yesterday Obama told the world economic summit that we must redistribute American wealth to the whole world. God bless the socialists! They don't like to pay their own taxes but they know how to have a good party and they do take care of the indolent voters. The poorer Americans become... the greater the number of socialist leaning voters. Socialism grows as countries get poorer and the indolent slowly become the voting majority. And so socialists have an incentive to screw up every economy in the world.
Market Outlook
Yesterdays surge was again on low volume but apparently caused by a slowing of the rate people are leaving the market. It did not alter the recently negative Parabolic SAR and MACD trading trends but a continued buying surge could make those trends positive again. This is a trader's market not a long-term investors market and cash was still flowing out of the market yesterday.
Asian shares were up last night with Shanghai (China) up 0.7%, India up 4.5%, Japan up 4.4% and Hong Kong up 7.4%.
European markets are up in the range of 3.3% to 4.8% mid way through their day today.
US futures indicate the DJI will up about 200 points at the start today. That is 50 points more than the market rose yesterday. All the American equities markets are extremely over bought... as overbought now as they were oversold four weeks ago at the lowest point in twelve years.
Euphoria is a sign of a market peaking. The volume was low yesterday and cash flowed out of the market for the second day in a row. The economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010 but it is clear that the market psychology is improving even though the economic news of the rate of economic decline is worse now than ever before in US history. But America has always come through in the past.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Rate of economic decline is still too steep for a market bottom to form.
The economy is not in a depression type accelerating downward spiral as socialists hoped for, but their fear mongering last year and up through February of this year did come close to creating the depression spiral collapse they seemingly wanted. But too many people understood what damage the “democrat socialists” were doing and bankers and corporations learned quickly to resist. Unfortunately some auto companies and bankers took the socialist's poisoned bait and they are now failing or already no longer with us. A few like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America were poisoned but are pumping their stomachs as fast as possible and probably will recover by returning the TARP nationalization cyanide.
The rally in March occurred because the pressure caused by so many “democrat socialist” tax cheats being appointed to cabinet and economic czar positions, ACORN voter registration fraud, Al Gore solar investment fraud schemes, obvious voter fraud by Al Franken supporters, Congress voting $millions for AIG bonuses in their pork bankruptcy stimulation package (and then denying the fact), and outrage with ACORN and White House attempts to silence the free speech of American airwaves (fairness doctrine) and the secret election ballot (card check)... all forced the Obama Administration to stop its extreme fear mongering.
The rally that just ended is the recovered future cost of Obama’s past fear mongering. If he starts up again the bottom will fall out of the stock market again. We have one of those suicide Japanese pilots at the wheel of the American economic flying machine and this ride he is giving the American economy could be very bumpy. The good thing is the entire “democrat congress” will likely be voted out of office in 2010 and then we can fly then on autopilot until 2012.
Market forces
Cash flow was out of the markets yesterday for the first time in over a week. The last day of the fund’s quarter report gains was yesterday and will be negative but much better than expected. MSNBC continues to put lipstick on the stock market. But the technical indicators now are aligned with the negative economic fundamentals and not even “Mad Money” spin can make a purse out of this sow’s ear.
Market Outlook
U.S. stocks fell sharply 2/3 after Tuesday morning’s end of the quarter fund repositioning buying binge. Obama as president of the American electric car industry is an improbable success story especially since Obama does not support nuclear industry expansion that is the only way to ever get electric energy cheaper than fossil fuel energy. So the “democrat socialist” unrealistic anti nuclear policy would require more deficit spending to slant the playing field in favor of electric cars. More deficit incentives will not help since America is already being spent into bankruptcy. The auto unions are now refusing to make further concessions to make GM viable. Chrysler will only survive now as a subsidiary of the Italian FIAT company. Henry Ford’s company may be the only American auto company to survive Obama through the next three months.
The inevitable Obama bankruptcy of America will make this decade another FDR type “lost decade” of socialist experimentation and fumbling of economic issues. Let us hope it does not end with a world war. This rally appears to be over and yesterdays afternoon decline confirmed the end of what had been positive Parabolic SAR and MACD trading trends. This is a trader's market not a long-term investors market and cash began flowing out of the market again yesterday.
Asian shares were mixed last night with Shanghai up 1.5%, India up 2%, Japan down 0.8% and Hong Kong down 0.4% after a mixed day on Monday.
European markets are mixed in the range of 0% to 0.2% mid way through their day. France threatens to walk out on Obama at the G20 conference. So what else is new!
US futures indicate the DJI will open the day down about 50 points at the start. All the American equities markets are still over bought. All of the American markets have had successively declining lows that indicate a bottomless money pit. But those lows have been decelerating declining lows which give us hope that this next equities decline will be the true and final bottom for this recession. That would be a reasonable assumption since the economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010.
The rally in March occurred because the pressure caused by so many “democrat socialist” tax cheats being appointed to cabinet and economic czar positions, ACORN voter registration fraud, Al Gore solar investment fraud schemes, obvious voter fraud by Al Franken supporters, Congress voting $millions for AIG bonuses in their pork bankruptcy stimulation package (and then denying the fact), and outrage with ACORN and White House attempts to silence the free speech of American airwaves (fairness doctrine) and the secret election ballot (card check)... all forced the Obama Administration to stop its extreme fear mongering.
The rally that just ended is the recovered future cost of Obama’s past fear mongering. If he starts up again the bottom will fall out of the stock market again. We have one of those suicide Japanese pilots at the wheel of the American economic flying machine and this ride he is giving the American economy could be very bumpy. The good thing is the entire “democrat congress” will likely be voted out of office in 2010 and then we can fly then on autopilot until 2012.
Market forces
Cash flow was out of the markets yesterday for the first time in over a week. The last day of the fund’s quarter report gains was yesterday and will be negative but much better than expected. MSNBC continues to put lipstick on the stock market. But the technical indicators now are aligned with the negative economic fundamentals and not even “Mad Money” spin can make a purse out of this sow’s ear.
Market Outlook
U.S. stocks fell sharply 2/3 after Tuesday morning’s end of the quarter fund repositioning buying binge. Obama as president of the American electric car industry is an improbable success story especially since Obama does not support nuclear industry expansion that is the only way to ever get electric energy cheaper than fossil fuel energy. So the “democrat socialist” unrealistic anti nuclear policy would require more deficit spending to slant the playing field in favor of electric cars. More deficit incentives will not help since America is already being spent into bankruptcy. The auto unions are now refusing to make further concessions to make GM viable. Chrysler will only survive now as a subsidiary of the Italian FIAT company. Henry Ford’s company may be the only American auto company to survive Obama through the next three months.
The inevitable Obama bankruptcy of America will make this decade another FDR type “lost decade” of socialist experimentation and fumbling of economic issues. Let us hope it does not end with a world war. This rally appears to be over and yesterdays afternoon decline confirmed the end of what had been positive Parabolic SAR and MACD trading trends. This is a trader's market not a long-term investors market and cash began flowing out of the market again yesterday.
Asian shares were mixed last night with Shanghai up 1.5%, India up 2%, Japan down 0.8% and Hong Kong down 0.4% after a mixed day on Monday.
European markets are mixed in the range of 0% to 0.2% mid way through their day. France threatens to walk out on Obama at the G20 conference. So what else is new!
US futures indicate the DJI will open the day down about 50 points at the start. All the American equities markets are still over bought. All of the American markets have had successively declining lows that indicate a bottomless money pit. But those lows have been decelerating declining lows which give us hope that this next equities decline will be the true and final bottom for this recession. That would be a reasonable assumption since the economy is now expected to decline well into early 2010.
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