Bob Brinker declared the US market bottom is behind us

Bob Brinker was on time when he first called the market top in 2000 but then equivocated giving a QQQ buy recommendation just before it plunged. He was four months late when he called the market bottom in 2003 but held firm with that decision and correctly said we were in a long secular bear market. However he equivocated again in early 2007 and said it was no longer a secular bear market but had become a bull market. He then failed to call the market top in November 2007 (13 months late). He recently called the bottom of the bear market Late January 2009 (two months late by our count).

So we see that Bob Brinker tends to be cautious and late on his market timing calls. But it is good to know he is back on board and we hope late once more. Implicitly when one has seen a market bottom it means the economy will bottom in three to nine months. So it is clear Brinker does not buy into any of the Obama Administration depression hysteria either.

Perhaps the Obama campaign hysteria was necessary to demonize Republicans and win the election but it is time for the Obama administration to drop it. If he continues Obama could eventually create a second "Great Depression" just like FDR's with the expansion of ineffective and inefficient government programs and with additional debt burden when there already is excessive national debt. Only in the case of FDR his administration there were no signs of corruption with taxpayer money going to groups that serve to register only democrats and to corrupt the census and to divert money to political hacks, handlers, and hoodlums.

According to our Re-spiral indicator the market now still has about three weeks of life left to rally. If the indicator tanked now it would have at least a week left to completely liquidate stocks. Cash flow wise, the market is still sound but when the market is so close to resistance levels and when the administration is hysterical and seems clueless they destroy hope, trust, and confidence and become an economic liability. President Obama himself is now the world's greatest liability of a Great Depression. Even if his hysteria does not cause an immediate depression his taxation and spending will leave us with a stagflation bubble much larger than the Jimmy Carter malaise left forever optimistic and greatly successful President Ronald Reagan.

China bottomed at the end of December and is now up 30%. Last night Asian markets were down with China down 2.9%, India down 2.9% and Japan down 1.4%. Hong Kong was down 3.8%. At this moment most European markets are down about 2.2% on average.

The world markets (excluding China) are waiting for the US markets to indicate that the Obama Administration is no threat to a recovery.The US market futures indicate a lower opening this morning and another test of the upward US market trend line.

There is a lot of headroom left for this market to rally. Geithner realizes there has to be a worldwide effort with uniform banking and stock market regulations on reporting and shorting. At home Geithner will likely propose the US invest 25% in failing mortgages with the money to be paid back from the profits on the eventual sale. That would put an end to the mortgage melt down. Commodities remain weak so inflation is no immediate threat.