Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Markets continue a high risk, low reward situation.

It is a fact that socialists individually contribute the least toward charity at home. They think that is not their job it is government's job. In northern European socialist countries the government collects a stipend from every member of the church and gives it to the churches. That is like automatic tithing and is doing wonders to get people not to go to Christian Churches. Socialists also tend to be atheists and are the biggest cheaters to avoid paying taxes. Even Obama's Treasury Secretary had to come clean on his tax evasions when he was advised he would not pay any penalties if he cleaned up before he was audited. Socialism leads to corruption and underground economies as honest people find themselves taxed to starvation. Greece and southern Italy are perfect examples of underground economies and Mafia like local justice.

The Euro fell as Germany announced production had stalled in February. Even so the cost of Greek debt rose sharply against the cost of selling German debt as socialist government workers continue to demonstrate against government spending reductions.

World Outlook
A 20% improvement in sales after an 80% drop still leaves a company 76% lower this year. But the market prices the stocks much higher because the growth rate makes the stocks PEG seem like a great buy. It can be a very slow growth company that looks good only because the investors are short sighted and believe the stock hype Jim Cramer and others give them. The Baltic Dry index measures the health of world trade. It has shown a serious decline in the last few months and that no doubt is why Jim Cramer has been ignoring it of late. It means world trade is slowing,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND


Economic Calendar
Finally American jobs are being created faster than they are being lost. See:
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_jobs.htm

However, below that chart is another chart that shows the high unemployment rate. What is not shown is that there are a greater percentage of Americans who have been unemployed now for more than a year than in any period since the Great Depression. That block of unemployed Americans will take a long time to re-absorb into the economy.
ISM non manufacturing index rose to 55.4% from 53% last month indicating services are expanding at an increased pace.
US Treasury prices slid on Monday with benchmark yields touching 4 percent for the first time in 10 months as inflation is anticipated. Inflation is better now than deflation.
Pending home sales- the National Association of Realtors said Monday its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements rose 8.2 percent from January to a February reading of 97.6. January's reading was revised slightly downward to 90.2 to make the current month look better. This is still a good sign.
FOMC minutes were once again positive. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has been closing the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the liquidity meltdown. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close June 30.


Yesterday
Markets are skeptical over Greek ability to repay bonds they continue to sell more of to pay off debt and go ever deeper into debt as welfare recipients and government workers demand a free lunch and put it on the tab of private workers.
Buyers have returned in force to Treasury 10-yr note auction. The $21 billion auction stopped out at 3.900 percent just under recent highs of 4%. Retail demand was very strong with direct and indirect bidders taking down 59 percent of the auction vs. an average of 51 percent. The continuing trouble in socialist Greece has increased the value of the dollar and is giving a boost to U.S. Treasuries. Treasury prices are extending gains.

Thursday, April 8:
Unemployment claims
BOE rate announcement
ECB announcement
Treasury auctions $13 billion of 30-year bonds.

Friday, April 9:
Wholesale Trade Report



Market Outlook April 8
The market closed down on sharply increased volume confirming the topping of the American stock markets. We do not expect more than a 10% decline in this first round but it is likely to cascade downward until the socialists in Congress are thrown out of office so that spending on unions and state and federal loafing lifers can be cut.

Obama and the democrat-socialists have set the stage for short sellers of every breed to sweep in and attack American markets. It is very hazardous right now because individual popular stocks like PALM show just how badly an investor in Jim Cramer's favorite growth sector can be savaged. Other stocks such as Boom are being savaged internally with management literally buying Boom stock at 0$ per share and selling it to hide mushrooming Administrative salary increases by diluting the value of the stock. The management of BOOM is milking that company dry.

The fact that George Soros funded the Obama campaign should have been enough cause for every American to vote against the Obama regime. The new chairman of the Republican Nat. Comm. Is another big spender and is destroying the Republicans from the inside as contributors are turned off by GOP big spending on nude bar scenes.

World Markets
Asian markets were down over night; Shanghai down -0.9%, Hong Kong down -0.3%, India down -1.4%, and Japan down -1.1%.

European markets are currently down in the range from -0.9% to -1.5 % this morning about half way through their day.

Today US pre-market futures are down in a range -0.2% to -0.4% at 7:30 AM EST.

We have noticed that the greatest impediment to stock market profits is a portfolio under $100,000. Beyond $100,000 the investor costs go down and diversification begins to work. Below $6000 it is almost impossible for an investor to make money other than in an index fund (at best) and that has performed close to a net zero for the last ten years (even ignoring trading commissions).

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