Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Bull market resistance levels have held despite GE/MSNBC/Pravda's propaganda attempts to destabilize our markets and shift attention from Obama's pres

Bull market resistance levels have held despite GE/MSNBC/Pravda's propaganda attempts to destabilize our markets and shift attention from Obama's presidential impotence.

The Obama leftists at GE/MSNBC/Pravda risk de-stabilizing world economies by spreading fear and deception about the EU and Greece when Obama's environmental lethargy and wasteful spending is the world's greatest threat. If Bush was responsible for the natural disaster Katrina, then Obama is doubly responsible for approving unsafe oil drilling a week before the greatest environmental disaster in the history of the United States. Obama is an environmental monster spending his time at re-election fundraisers when he should be acting like a president trying to understand and correct the problems the nation faces. Instead North Korea now joins the list of problems the Obama administration has exacerbated. Obama has the inverse Midas touch of turning everything he touches to merd.

The GE/MSNBC/Pravda leftist's fear mongers gave Obama the last election by turning the last recession into a crisis. The leftists are turning every normal issue they face into a new crisis so Obama can hide from the spotlight. Disaster follows Obama everywhere he goes. America should export Obama to N. Korea. He probably can prove he was born there too. He still has not explained how it is he applied to an American college claiming to be a foreign national not an American living in a foreign country. He can prove anything to his adoring loony cadre but Obama makes no sense at all.

The Euro has held its lows now for several days and we expect Euro buyers will drive the Euro back at least to 1.3 dollars within a few more weeks. China was buying Euro's at much higher prices. Europe is not a disaster. Obama is the world's greatest disaster and that is why GE/MSNBC/Pravda leftists are frantically trying to inflate other disasters to draw attention from the ineptitude of the whole Obama administration.

In spite the GE/MSNBC/Pravda leftist's attempt to distract Americans with Greek nickel and dime scare tactics, all the major American stock market indices remain above the resistance levels set on the Feb 8 close. As long as these levels hold we in America are by definition still in a bull market.

All the major indices bounced off of the lows of yesterday and closed above the Feb 8 close. Had this market been ready for a reversal of the bull market it would have plummeted through the lows of last Fall.

Plot the S&P 500 and you see the resistance level of the previous low on Feb 8, 2010 has not been broken.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#chart1:symbol=^gspc;range=6m;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
Feb 8 close 1056 May 25 close 1074

The same is true for the New York Stock Exchange, NYA
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA
Feb 8 6713 May 25 6667

The same is true for the Power Shares, QQQQ
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=QQQQ
Feb 8 42.62 May 25 44.7

The same is true for the Dow Jones Industrials, DJI
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI
Feb 8 9908 May 25 10043
10000 are not the Dow's last cyclic low close. The resistance level is 9908 not 10000

Plot the NASDAQ and you see the resistance level of the previous low on Feb 8, 2010 has not been broken.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIXIC+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^ixic;range=1y;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off
Feb 8 close 2125 May 25 close 2211

American's should not be afraid of Greek socialists. We need to get rid of our own leftists and cut government "pretend" jobs. When the East Germans were liberated from Communism they revealed that the communist government pretended to give them real jobs and they pretended to do real work. In the end production was so low under international socialism (communism) the stores were all empty and America had to send them food to prevent starvation.

World Markets:

The Baltic Dry Index is showing resurgence in world trade. Demand for commodities is finally rising again just in time to cancel a double dip recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

Brazil’s Bovespa stock index rallied, rising sharply as real-estate companies and commodity producers climbed after the measure fell to the cheapest level in more than a year. According to Bay Crest Partners LLC, Brazilian stocks are poised to rebound after a key momentum indicator gave the strongest buy signal since the bear- market low in May 2004.

We believe for now the worst of the current market decline is just about spent. Volume spiked up in the capitulation last Thursday. It looks like we had an intermediate double bottom and it is up from.


Economic Calendar
Last Week
Crude Inventories dropped significantly from 1.95M down to 1.62M and that should cause energy prices to continue rising. The WSJ thinks even 1.62M is a glut, but if that were true the glut is evaporating at a rate that it will be gone in six months. So it seems that even the WSJ had joined GE/OBAMA/MSNBC/Pravda on the negative side thus adding further contrarian evidence that now is the time to buy.

Payrolls increased in 38 states in April, led by Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York, indicating the recovery in the labor market is becoming more broad-based. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said that while the economic recovery is slower than desired he sees the start of substantial growth in employment.

This week:
The declining stock market has caused the leading indicators to turn down like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sales of previously owned US homes rose by 7.6% in April to a five-month high of 5.77 million, according to the industry body the National Association of Realtors. Continued extensions of the tax rebate appear to be working. This rebate was the most successful so far.

The economic news since last week has been good but GE/MSNBC/Pravda knuckleheads have been political and spin the news highly negative to take the Obama disaster out of the spotlight.

Yesterday
The Case-Shiller 20-city Index for Mar home prices leaped 2.4% after increasing 0.7% the month before.
Consumer Confidence for May rose to 63.3 from 57.7 the month before.
The FHFA (stressed) Housing Price Index Mar rose 0.3% showing that housing prices are increasing and more homeowners are getting their heads above water.

May 26
8:30 AM Durable Orders Apr
8:30 AM Durable Orders ex Transportation Apr
10:00 AM New Home Sales Apr
10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/22

May 27
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/22
8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q1
8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/22
8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q1
8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/22
8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/22

May 28
8:30 AM Personal Income Apr
8:30 AM Personal Spending Apr
8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Apr
9:45 AM Chicago PMI May
9:55 AM U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment May


Market Outlook May 26, 2010
Well if you followed this blog you probably got back into the market after the capitulation near the lows. We hope you are happy. For some reason all the comments we see are in computer symbols not the English language. That is why we do not respond.

Volume surged as the market lifted off its early hour low and all the indicator critical necklines held as evidenced by the fact that the financial institutions would have sold off if the levels had given out.

GE/MSNBC/Pravda reporting has reached absurd levels of irrational frenzied fear as they try to divert attention from Obama's spending spree, and his failure to take responsibility for the oil rig accident consistent with the way he said Bush had to take responsibility for the natural disaster Katrina. Obama and the democrat-socialists were of course absurd blaming bush for the ineptitude of the democrat-socialists who control that region. And the democrat-socialist civil servants that fled the city and left the people without bus drivers to get the people out. The only democrat-socialists who stayed were the ones stealing Cadillacs from the abandoned dealerships. Those are of course the Obama supporting majority, the permanent voting underclass majority Obama is trying to create.

The final market capitulation last Thursday was greater than the 3-9-09 capitulation, and more comparable to 9-17-08 or 10-9-08. Capitulations are such big disturbances that they render moving averages inaccurate for several weeks.

World Markets

Asian markets were up despite Hilary/Obama fighting with N. Korea. Shanghai up 0.1%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, India up 2.3%, and Japan up 0.7%.

European markets are up sharply as the Euro stabilized. Today the European markets are up in the range from 2.3% to 2.9% this morning about half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are up before the start by about 1%. U.S. Futures are a snapshot of the moment and do not correlate with what happens by the end of the day.

Panic selling at market lows is unfortunately the rule rather than the exception. That is why the capitulation occurs. Once those who panic are out of the market the next leg of the advance begins. We should finally see this next leg.

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