Friday, June 4, 2010

China has now cut the real estate bubble by more than 50% which means China can now resume more rapid growth.

The USA is still a much bigger consumer than are the Chinese so the USA will once again pull up the rest of the world. China also has now cut their real estate bubble by more than 50% which means China can now resume more rapid growth.

How about Congress regulating or better yet abolishing Freddie and Fannie Mai? The new Obama financial reform legislation will not even touch these two socialist-corrupt agencies that qualified mortgages to thousands of people with no means to make any payments. Then they backed loans to the same people that allowed indigents to withdraw equity to stay in the house they could not afford and then declare bankruptcy. Socialism is corrupt and a socialist congress is absolutely bankrupting national ethics, values, and morality.

Oil service stocks brought down the stock market two days ago and GE/MSNBC/GeorgeSoros/Jim Cramer/Pravda advised avoiding them so their hedge fund friends could pick up the bargains. Then yesterday all the stocks that GE/MSNBC/GeorgeSoros/Jim Cramer/Pravda told listeners to avoid rose 2% to 8%. Cramer is exactly 180 degrees out of phase with the stock market. In two months when GE/MSNBC/GeorgeSoros/Jim Cramer/Pravda tells us the economy is recovering it will be the time to sell everything and short whatever they recommend.

Compare for yourself the two surveyed levels of consumer confidence at.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm

Plot the S&P 500 and you see the resistance level of the previous low on Feb 8, 2010 has not been broken.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#chart1:symbol=^gspc;range=6m;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
Feb 8 1056

The same is true for the New York Stock Exchange, NYA
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA

The same is true for the Power Shares, QQQQ
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=QQQQ

The same is true for the Dow Jones Industrials, DJI
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI
Feb 8 9908

Plot the NASDAQ and you see the resistance level of the previous low on Feb 8, 2010 has not been broken.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIXIC+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^ixic;range=1y;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off

GE/MSNBC/GeorgeSoros/Jim Cramer/Pravda want you to sell now. So that obviously means it is time to buy.


World Markets:

The Baltic Dry Index is showing resurgence in world trade. Demand for commodities is finally rising again just in time to cancel a double dip recession. Export growth has stimulated the American economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

We believe that for now the market decline is spent with multiple tests of the market resistance points.


Economic Calendar

USA personal income increased $54.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income increased $57.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $4.0 billion, or about 0.1 percent.

U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment May increased to 73.6 from 73.3 last month.

The economic recovery gained strength on the greatest rise in construction spending in a decade and the 10th straight month of expansion for the manufacturing sector. Industry spending rose 2.7 percent with gains in all major sectors, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. In the manufacturing report, the group's employment index, which measures employers' willingness to hire, rose 1.3-percentage points to 59.8. That was the highest level since May 2004. New orders, a gauge of future production, were unchanged at 65.7. "We haven't lost much in the way of momentum," said Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM's manufacturing survey on a conference call. "The manufacturing sector continues to move ahead."

In a separate report Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said that after a nearly six-year high in April the 59.7 reading for May was again well above the 50 level that indicates expansion. Export orders rose last month despite the debt crisis in Greece.

Government spending rose 2.4 percent aided by multi-trillion dollar boondoggle Congress passed in February 2009. State and local spending jumped 2.3 percent and federal spending rose 2.9 percent.

Residential construction spending surged 4.4 percent in April. The other major sector, nonresidential construction, climbed 1.7 percent. That marked the first advance in this category since March 2009. The strength in April came from gains in private sector work on communications projects and power generation facilities. Construction of office buildings and the category that includes shopping centers fell in April that is good to reduce the glut.

Homebuilders have expressed optimism that construction will keep improving even with the expiration of the homebuyer tax credits. Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. confirmed last week that it had a narrower loss in its latest quarter and had seen a surge in new home orders. The company said the strength in orders was holding up in May even though the homebuyer tax credits had come to end. Pulte Group Inc., the nation's largest homebuilder, reported in early May that it had been able to reduce its loss for the first quarter and expected to be profitable this year. That would mark a major turning point for the company, which has posted losses in 14 consecutive quarters.

Challenger reports job cuts announced by U.S. employers declined 65% in May, indicating the labor market is improving.

Pending home sales soared 6.0%, according to the National Association of Realtors. They hit a level not seen since October 2009.

Crude Inventories 05/29: Oil prices in Asia after U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected, suggesting consumer demand is growing. Crude supplies fell more than expected, dropping by 1.4 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday.

Auto Sales May, Ford sales up 20%, GM sales up 17%, Chrysler up 33%, Toyota down.

Truck Sales May, Ford sales up 22%, GM sales up 17%.

Service industries in the U.S. expanded for a fifth month and factory orders rose, pointing to a broadening economic recovery that’s generating more jobs.

Yesterday:
Jun 3 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change May improved 30% but the manipulated revision to last month made it look 18% poorer
Jun 3 Productivity-Rev. Q1 revised downward from 3.6% to 2.8%, still good.
Jun 3 Unit Labor Costs Q1 declined 1.3%, goodness
Jun 3 Initial Claims 05/29 declined slightly from 460K to 456K (manipulation removed).
Jun 3 Continuing Claims 05/22 up 1.7% (manipulation removed). Not good at all.
Jun 3 Factory Orders Apr improved more than 1.2% (manipulation removed). good
Jun 3 ISM Services May 55.4 (no change) but goodness

Today
Jun 4 8:30 AM Non farm Payrolls May rose 431K in may vs. 290K last month, a 45% rise in hiring.
Jun 4 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May dropped from 9.9% to 9.7% the second monthly drop in a row.
Jun 4 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May rose 0.3% after no increase last month
Jun 4 8:30 AM Average Workweek May rose to 34.2 days from 31.1 days
These are all excellent results.


Market Outlook June 4, 2010
The unemployment situation is improving because we can see 80% of graduating students are finding jobs before they graduate. Also, the number of people still eligible for 99 weeks of unemployment is peaking this month. That should subside by the end of June causing unemployment to fall even faster. So now is the time to buy in advance of improving employment opportunities in the USA.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_jobs.htm

The USA is still a much bigger consumer than is China so the USA will once again pull up the rest of the world. China also has now cut the real estate bubble by more than 50% which means China will now resume rapid growth.

We expect to see advancing stock markets here and abroad most of the next four to ten weeks


World Markets

Asian markets were waiting for American unemployment report (which probably will not be good) last night. Shanghai down -0.0%, Hong Kong up 0%, India up 0.6%, and Japan down -0.1%.

European markets are waiting for American unemployment report in the range from -0.5% to -1.1% this morning about half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are down before the start by about -0.6%. U.S. Futures are a snapshot of the moment and do not correlate with what happens by the end of the day.

No comments: