Thursday, December 9, 2010

Mayor Bloomberg hinted today that he could be the next US Treasury Secretary.

Mayor Bloomberg hinted today that he could be the next US Treasury Secretary.

Mayor Bloomberg could be the next treasury secretary and thinks he could help restore confidence that we are coming out of the recession. He would like to help Obama get re-elected.

Goldman Sucks first moved all the multi million-dollar bonuses up to December 30, 2010, to avoid possible higher 2011 tax hits. But after the Obama compromise yesterday, Goldman Sucks will now allow them to take the money in January to defer the income if they wish. Of course they will do that because it delays the income only one day and delays the tax by one year. Who says crime does not pay? Goldman Sucks knew the mortgages were junk but kept that fact a secret and bet against the mortgages to make $billions while they continued to sell the junk colateralized debt to their clients. Who could ever trust them again?

The most corrupt country in Africa, which is the most corrupt continent in the world, failed in its attempt to force bribes from Halliburton even after threatening to claim Halliburton bribed Nigeria. The Nigerian claim is harder to believe than if the Moscow Mafia claimed Halliburton forced them to take bribes to get a piece of the Siberian oil drilling. Of course the Nigerian president of America, Barack Obama, claims he did not have anything to do with these ridiculous charges from his native land. Obama still has not helped his brother who lives in a mud hut in Nigeria. His brother is a good hygienic Moslem still eats with his right hand as the Koran instructs because he wipes his ass with his left hand. The Koran is filled with good advice like that.

Most Important Rule, By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
Since the early 1980's, I've examined and tested an enormous range of analytical techniques and investment rules, including various versions of "Don't fight the Fed," and "Don't fight the tape." If I had to choose between only these two, "Don't fight the tape" would win, hands down, as Fed-based investment approaches typically endure excruciating drawdowns - even those that succeed in slightly improving long-term returns. That said, there are numerous refinements that perform far better than these simple rules-of-thumb; especially those that reflect broader considerations such as valuation, sentiment, economic pressures, yield trends, market internals, and so forth. If I had to pull a single rule from these combinations, one particular admonition - "Don't take risk in overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield environments" - is one of the single most important in terms of avoiding major, sometimes catastrophic losses.
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
http://www.hussman.net/weeklyMarketComment.html

New unplanned consequence of overpaying executives is they have more money than they need in just two or three years so they retire like the Phizer executive. That just adds fuel to the myth that they are worth the money they get. Most of them are incompetent heirs and deserve as much as Henry the XV1 and his wife Marie got.

World Markets:
China is bringing forward the release of November economic data on inflation, retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset investments to Dec. 11, heightening speculation the People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates this weekend. China has a large bubble of unoccupied housing and office space that has been bid up by speculators who believe prices can only go higher.

Chinese economic data may be entirely fraudulent now. There is no way to know anymore. China imprisoned an American with an eight-year sentence because he was in China doing investor research to see if the balance sheets and income statements were truth or a fraud. Seeking truth is now apparently a criminal offense in China. That means that we can no longer trust any Chinese financial reports because fraud in China cannot be reported. That means any investing in China could result in 100% losses when their bubble of Ponzi schemes and other fraud breaks. We would advise getting out of the Chinese markets until all Wall Street reporters are freed from China's prisons.

If there is no transparency and no independent verification allowed in China that means their whole system may be based on fraud. China may now be in danger of a stock market collapse because they find it necessary to lock up the people who try to verify the corporation data. It could be the biggest scam ever perpetrated. China could walk away with much more than they would lose if Obama defaults on the treasury debt they hold.

Economic Calendar
The news is that our economy is still bouncing along the bottom except in manufacturing and retail sales that are nearly fully recovered. Planned layoff have risen sharply again.

This week's bad news
Yesterday
Consumer Credit Oct up 3.4B from 1.2B last month. Consumer debt not job income is behind higher sales.
MBA Mortgage Applications 12/03 down another 0.9% last month. Obama is a disaster case allowing Real Estate to fester this long.
Crude Inventories 12/04 down 3.8M as oil prices rise over $90 and this is with a stagnant world economy. Bad news-shortages are coming like they have in Obama's' favorite country Zimbabwe. Obama's favorite world leaders are Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Ortega of Venezuela, and Castro of Cuba all Socialist psychopaths.

Today
Initial Claims 12/04
Continuing Claims 11/27 -
Wholesale Inventories Oct

Friday
Trade Balance Oct
Export Prices ex-ag. Nov
Import Prices ex-oil Nov
Mich Sentiment Dec
Treasury Budget Nov

Market Outlook Dec 9, 2010
Most metals on the London Metal Exchange and crude oil futures fell again yesterday on year-end profit taking. Gold is up 26% and silver is up 33% this year. The fed wants 2.6% inflation. It will be 11 years before prices rise 33%. We have had moderate deflation these past two years and so far the FED has not been able to get any inflation much less their goal of 2.6%. The people who bought silver now will have to wait ten or more years before their investment pays off.

The stock market again hits the wall at the recent high resistance level. The U.S. market continues in a narrow trading range. Today we could test the upper range yet again.

Bonds have started taking a beating from the FED and that beating will go on through much of next year. Usually the first effect of a declining bond market is a rise in stock prices and then is followed with a collapse in stock prices. We expect a sharp collapse of the equities markets in January. The people who lost their shirts on stocks went into bonds after 2008. Now as they lose their pants in Bonds they will want stocks again. So later next year could be good for stocks after the bond losers get back into stocks near the highs this year.

World Markets
Asian markets were net down last night. China's market was down -1.3%, Hong Kong up 0.3%, India down -2.3%, and Japan up 0.5%.

European markets are up slightly this morning in a range of about -0.3% to +0.5% half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are up about +0.3% at 8 AM EST. The good new is that taxes will not rise for two more years, which means people may take profits and actually help reduce the deficit.

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