Wednesday, January 19, 2011

China is in town to accelerate the rate at with American technology is pirated via joint ventures.

China is in town to accelerate the rate at with American technology is pirated via joint ventures. GE has already sold out the aviation industry giving China everything they need to build a Dreamliner.

GE/MSNBC/Pravda has gotten the Obama OK to sell MSNBC/Pravda to Comcast, which will soon become Comcast/MSNBC/Pravda. But there are rumors Comcast will fire the MSNBC socialists and try to compete with FOX News.

The dollar strengthens as the world discovers the best inflation adjusted returns are found in the USA.
The Net Long-Term TIC Flows for November show a sharp trend reversal as the world buys US dollars and treasuries for a safe higher rate of return like the USA banks have enjoyed at 0.25% cost for the last two years.
Treasury 10-year notes pay 1.88 percent after subtracting consumer price increases, compared with 1.41 percent for German bunds and 1.13 percent for Japanese government bonds. Gilts yield four basis points less than the U.K.’s inflation rate.

With a 0.25% cost and a guaranteed 1.88% return banks make $15.3 Billion for every $Trillion of USA debt they carry.

While investors are forcing European governments from Greece to Ireland to cut spending as governments prepare to sell $1.1 trillion of bonds this year, demand at Treasury auctions has been the highest on record.
The precious metals trend line is now down

World Markets:
Asian markets show caution. China's markets declined 3% Monday in a sharp selloff. European stimulation puts cash into the stock markets to try to improve asset values and make reserves appear larger than they otherwise would be.

Business trends

Yesterday
Empire Manufacturing Jan rose to 11.9 from 10.6 reported last month. Small improvement

Net long-term TIC Flows Nov: US Treasury reported that in November Net Long-term TIC Flows increased to $85.1B from 27.6B. This indicates that the dollar will likely strengthen significantly. See:
http://nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html#tic

NAHB Housing Market Index Jan remained unchanged. No improvement.

Today
Jan 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 01/14
Jan 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec
Jan 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Dec

This Week:
Jan 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/15 -
Jan 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/08
Jan 20 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Dec
Jan 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Dec
Jan 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jan
Jan 20 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 01/15

Market Outlook Jan 19, 2011

Currently investors remain at historic levels of optimism, although there were very few to be found actually investing in recent weeks. Most are already fully invested. Short Selling Against S&P 500 Companies is at a one-year low, lower than before the May Flash Crash.

By mid year we expect state and federal worker layoffs because the socialists have not put their government houses in order and the Tea Party wants smaller government. Raising taxes would allow states go even deeper in the hole with union contracts and tip into default. Many predict a major sell off at mid year when several individual states also are in budget crisis. But typically the stock market is six months ahead of economy. QE2 ends mid year but that is likely to be extended.
Foreclosures to Push Home Prices Down another 5% in 2011 according to RealtyTrac

World Markets
Asian markets were up last night. China's market was up 1.8%, Hong Kong up 1.1%, India down -0.6%, and Japan up 0.4%,

European markets are down this morning in a range of about 0.3% to 0.5% half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are down about -0.1 % at 7:00 AM EST.

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