Friday, March 4, 2011

Alan Greenspan today said this recession will not end until home prices rise 10%.

Alan Greenspan today said this recession will not end until home prices rise 10%. He said conventional conforming home loans since 2005 are now all under water.

He said the world economic system is now very bleak and impossible to forecast.. We will not know if QE2 worked until after recovery and we see if it creates any inflation. He said the price of gold is an indication of concern about the economy and is not rising due to inflation. He said FED activism is now declining. He said the2500 page Dodd-Frank bill is internally contradictory bill of regulations that hampers expansion of the economy and has had to be suspended recently for Ford to get any financing. It is just the tip of the ice-burg and needs to be reversed. It is worse than Obamacare. He said the recent equities rise is due to balance sheet changes from easy QE2 money and those effects are now running out and real growth is needed. QE2 enhanced capital gains and margins in the short term for stocks. New real growth is now needed from the liquid cash being converted into illiquid assets but that is not possible to forecast.

Masaali Shirakawa said, "The so-called credit easing (QE2) adopted by the Federal Reserve is essentially the same thing we did." That means Obama and Bernanke lied to the American people when they said running up a USA deficit would prevent the Japan problem of two lost decades of stagnation. They are doing exactly what Japan did. Japan now owes more than 80% of their GDP. Obama and Bernanke lied to the American people and said we can spend our way out of the recession but Masaali Shirakawa said that is what Japan is still doing after more than 20 years of profligate socialist spending like Greece and Ireland. This is why we need to throw the lying corrupt socialists out. Obama's administration is stupid, incompetent or both.

GE formerly GE/MSNBC/Pravda is the US architect of crony capitalism. Socialist Imelted is now the chief Obama business advisor telling Obama how to bleed hard working Americans dry to pay off corrupt unions with tax revenue and reward crony capitalists with contracts.
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How to balance the USA budget:
1. Throw out every single Democrat-socialist politician: Federal, State, and Locally.
2. NASA should be cut sharply so they learn to get out of socialist politics and go back to real science. It is now the socialist junk science poster child of our be-happy schools were 40% of the Obama be-happy kids drop out and a work ethic and personal character are considered passe dinosaurs like Jefferson, Madison and Lincoln. Today Lincoln gets one paragraph in American history and Clinton gets two pages just for his gay rights.
3. State, city, teachers, and security/safety workers should not be allowed to have unions just as they did not have unions until the beatniks of the late 1960's. The USA had an excellent school system before 1970 and had no immigration problem from be-happy banana republics until the 1960-70 drug culture took over US education.
4. Lay off 20% of state and federal workers this year and another 20% next year.
5. Break up Goldman Sachs and AIG and return the cash to the American treasury that bailed them out.
6. Withdraw Obama care legislation.
7. Send all the ignorant/criminal be-happy illegal immigrants' back to their socialist banana republic drug cartels where they come from. They don't want to work, they want to sell Mexican drugs and take over Texas. Thousands come to Texas every year just to have their children born in America so they can claim the child as an American citizen and appeal to the lunatic democrat-socialists for their own citizenship plus grants so they can pretend to study but actually drop out and get into the US welfare system. They come to America to go on the welfare and sell drugs not to help America. The derelicts have already destroyed Mexico and Haiti that way.
8. Make it illegal for corporate officers and employee unions to influence their salary decisions other that through the economic performance for the taxpayers and other investors.
9. Since the Federal Energy department and the Education department were created the Federal Commissars have destroyed Energy and Education. Eliminate these to federal bureaucracies.
10. Fire all the Obama Czars and FED commissars and government employees involved in housing, Freddie, and Fannie.

World Markets this week:
The Monarchy of North Korea blocked South Korean citizens’ return home over four who want to stay in south. Communism is a socialist dinosaur and has to take hostages and build walls to keep their people in. How can Communist China not feel the shame of supporting a one family monarchy? It shows that Communism is nothing but a form of fascism. It is the end product of the failed system of socialism.

Spain uses a speed limit like America did in the late 70's and early 80s to reduce automobile gas consumption 15%.
But Obama maintains cuts of American oil production of gas and oil to make prices rise for American industrial production instead.

Jack Welch former GE president (before GE became a foreign stooge of socialist expansion) said Monday that Obama unionized 43,000 TSA workers in the stroke of his pen right after he said he would be more pro-business. He said it was a presidential card-check and was another union of government workers. He said the Wisconsin Democrats who fled their state are clueless and irresponsible.

Energy is now the highest tax on the American economy as it has been for years in socialist countries who use energy policy as political power just as Obama does by punishing Americans in the southern energy rich states for voting against his policies of socialism, racism (against people with a work ethic), and stupidity. Obama is punishing Americans in the south for their rejection of his socialism and welfare policies.


US Economy
This past week
Personal Income Jan up 1.0% better than last month's 0.4%
Personal Spending Jan advanced a weak 0.2% compared with 0.7% last month
PCE Prices - Core Jan up 0.1% after no increase last month
Chicago PMI Feb up to 71.2 from 68.8 last month, possible political manipulation going on again in Chicago.
Pending Home Sales Dec fell again -2.8%
Construction Spending Jan -0.7% vs. -2.5% last month. That is horrible because the spending is still getting lower after two years of declines. Obama is incredibly incompetent for allowing Freddie and Fannie to continue to destroy this American sector. All the Obama Czars and FED commissars involved should be fired.
ISM Index Feb 61.4 another area the socialists fudge to lie just as all socialist bureaucrats are required to do.
Auto Sales Mar - up relative to last year and on track for 12 million cars down from 16 million before the Obama depression.
Truck Sales Mar - Also up from last year but still down about 25%. High gasoline prices will now begin to hurt car and truck sales.
MBA Mortgage Index 02/25 fell -6.5%. This is terrible and Obama does nothing.
Challenger Job Cuts Feb improved 20.0% last month
ADP Employment Change Feb improved slightly to 217K from 187Kthe previous month. We need over 400K to recover
Crude Inventories 02/26 fell -0.364M after improving 0.822M last month
Mar 2 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Mar says they will stick with the failed Japanese style spending plan. The money from the FED is swamping financial markets and inflating the cost of investment. Corporations will not hire while QE2 goes on because it is better to buy up weak competitors with all the FED cash.

Yesterday
Initial Claims 02/26 368K down slightly (23K) from last week's 391K The euphoria yesterday was because it was under 400K again. But we need new jobs being created.
Continuing Claims 02/19 3774K down slightly (16K) from last week 3790K
Productivity-Revised Q4 2.6% no change from the last revision, 2.6%
Unit Labor Costs - Revised Q4 -0.6% no change from the last revision -0.6%
ISM Services Feb 59.7 slightly improved from last month's 59.4

Today
Nonfarm Payrolls Feb at 192K up from 63K last month.
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Feb at 222K up from 68K last month.
Unemployment Rate Feb quoted as 8.9% manipulated down from the manipulated 9.0% last time. This is socialist Obama phony baloney.
Average Workweek Feb was constant at 34.2 hours.
Hourly Earnings Feb increased 0.0% after increasing 0.4% last month
Factory Orders Jan 3.1% up from 1.4% last month


Read more: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm#ixzz1Fdh9yLZJ

Market Outlook March 4, 2011

Volume was low again yesterday on the first bounce from the 50dma. Net cash flow is again out of the market. The market broke through the first 20-dma resistance line last week but we need to watch for follow through with the 50-dma for an additional estimated 10% decline. It took a first bounce of support yesterday as we expected before the decline hits 16% total. The real problem is profligate socialist spending here and abroad. In America the current budget crisis will only grow until the city and state fiscal budgets are approved this summer. We think the next support level will be down to Nov 4 levels or lower.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#chart2:symbo yel=^nya;range=1y;indicator=ema(50,20)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

We are prepared to buy individual stocks on significant declines. Some stocks are already buying opportunities and worth taking. But we do not think this bottom is past. That could be another 6.5% lower. However we would buy stocks now on declines whenever opportunity knocks.

World Markets
Asian markets were up last night. China up 1.4%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, India down 0.1 %, and Japan up 1%,

European markets are up this morning in a range of about 0.0% to 1.1% half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are a flat 0% at 7:00 AM EST.

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