Friday, April 15, 2011

Who is John Galt? America apparently is being destroyed with leftist propaganda in universities.

Who is John Galt? America apparently is being destroyed with leftist propaganda in universities. Atlas Shrugged opens at theaters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1RxKW-P5V8&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTf6NK0wsiA&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uHSv1asFvU&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7CjdJ1QyxI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tNheAEHprI&feature=related
http://www.atlasshruggedpart1.com/atlas-shrugged-movie-scene-dagny-confronts-union
http://www.atlasshruggedpart1.com/?gclid=CMy-kfPDnKgCFUff4AodBROUHg

QE1/2 temporarily improved the corporate balance sheets and by raising stock prices created a wealth effect by raising values of bank and individual investment portfolio’s. It ended the deflationary spiral and temporarily stimulated the economy but a continuation will accelerate temporary inflation as it already has started to do. The USA could not absorb all the money QE2 created and the USA is starting to cause temporary worldwide inflation via the temporary stockpiling of gold and commodities. QE2 will phase out soon. It is now highly likely that the Obama’s communist style fraudulent moving of bad news backwards is likely to result in a surprise that will shock the stock market. The FED will have to announce that the 4% improvement they predicted for the first quarter is now lower than the last 4th quarter and it could be as low as 2%. Recently they have dropped the 4th quarter numbers so they can quickly inflate the 1st quarter numbers. Again Obama deceives the world pretending today’s bad news happened in the past and thus thing look better now. We are entering a triple dip now primarily because Obama has ignored the housing sector because to him anyone who makes $50K/yr and owns a home is wealthy compared to his homelands of Nigeria and Indonesia. Obama is psychologically an illegal immigrant. He knows he is not a real American and that is why he sides with Ortega and other socialist tyrants who criticize America.

The House passed legislation 260-167 on Thursday to finance the federal government through the end of the fiscal year in September. The deal calls for $38 billion in spending cuts over the next 5 months. The next fiscal year begins in October.

World Markets:
The world needs to make room for China if China is going to be able to continue to grow. That will cause stresses in other world economies. China and Japan re-liquefy their banking systems on the backs of their people. Highly intelligent poor people have enormous savings rates. In the USA the Chinese immigrants rose rapidly because the USA gave them the market interest rates. But China is following the Japanese technique of keeping internal interest rates low and exploiting the high savings rate of their people to finance new projects.

Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on China’s AA- long-term local-currency rating to “negative” from “stable,” citing a “high likelihood of a significant deterioration” in banks’ asset quality within three years. Bad loans could rise to 15 percent to 30 percent of the total, with concern at the quality of lending compounded by growth in off-balance-sheet credit, Fitch said. Chinese banks extended 7.95 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) of new loans last year, while the government claimed they were tightening credit.

The yen weakened against all 16 of its major peers, while China’s yuan climbed to a 17-year high versus the dollar. The interest the US pays in on the five-year Treasury debt jumped three basis points.

Lisbon asks $116 Billion Portuguese Bailout.
Under Jimmy Carter, gold rose to over $800/oz. But by 1999 gold fell back below $290/oz again. Now it is about $1470/oz. We need to warn you now to liquidate gold and silver when it has run up, not after it drops quickly back to about $400 and $8 respectively. Ending QE2 will deflate all metals prices.
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Canadian job hiring took a pause.
Ireland's ratings were lowered again. Inflation in China and India is not yet in control.
Inflation in India and China is getting out of limits. Gasoline and fuel oil prices doubled under Obama but he and Bernacke say inflation is less than 2.5%. Only morons still believe that.

US Market Highlights
Latest reports
Trade Balance Feb -$45.8B relative holding from last months -$46.3
Export Prices ex-ag. Mar rose 1.3% up from last month’s 0.9%
Import Prices ex-oil Mar inflation doubled to 0.6 from last month’s 0.3% rise.
Treasury Budget Mar -$188.2B triple the Obama deficit growth rate from -$65.4B last month
MBA Mortgage Index 04/08 fell -6.7% three times as bad as last week.
Retail Sales Mar were up 0.1% compared to 1.0% last month because gas prices ate up 0.3%.
Retail Sales ex-auto Mar up 0.5% compared to 0.7% last month correcting for gasoline prices.
Business Inventories Feb increased another 0.5% on last months increase of % 0.9%.
Crude Inventories 04/09 were at 1.627M down slightly from 1.952M last week.
Fed's Beige Book Apr indicates QE2 will slowly be phased out.

Yesterday
Initial Claims 04/09 rose dramatically to 415K this week from 382K (corrected for Obama manipulation of 3K)
Continuing Claims 04/02 3695K almost unchanged from 3723K (corrected for Obama manipulation of 15K
ProducerPriceIndex Mar rose 0.7% not as inflationary as last month’s 1.6%
Core PPI Mar rose 0.3% on target and similar to last month’s 0.2%

This week
Apr 15 8:30 AM CPI Mar
Apr 15 8:30 AM Core CPI Mar
Apr 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Apr
Apr 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Feb
Apr 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Mar
Apr 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Mar
Apr 15 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Apr


Market Outlook April 15, 2011
Market volume dropped on yesterday’s slight advance but there was still little change in the VIX.
Structural imbalances continue in the economy. The third economic dip is beginning but likely will only slow growth and not go negative.

The job market and housing problems are growing again. Oil prices are rising again.

QE2 is destroying the incentive for Americans to save and should be ended now before we have 20-30 years of Japanese style stagnation.

The stock market is continuing to test its head and shoulders now. The markets all appear to be topping out. To us it looks like the 47dma is no longer a support level but instead has become the resistance level for a topping trend (head and shoulders) line. A drop now below 1305 (-0.4%) will be a sell signal for traders to sell.

S&P
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50&a=m26-12-9&c=

We think the next stock market support level will be down at Nov 4, 2010 levels.

World Markets
International trade shows that the world economy has only revived about 25% not the 60% shown by the stock and commodities markets. That means more than half of the stock market rise from the 2009 lows is unsupportable and could evaporate. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Asian markets were down last night. China up -0.3%, India down –1.6%, Taiwan down -1%, and Japan down -0.7%.

European markets are flat this morning in a range of about –0.3% to +0.5% half way through their day.

US pre-market futures are down about -0.2 % at 6:30 AM EST.

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