Thursday, June 30, 2011

Former President Bill Clinton said Obama lacks not only hope and change but also common sense long-term budgeting and planning needed for success.

Former President Bill Clinton said Obama lacks not only hope and change but also common sense long-term budgeting and planning needed for success. “We’ve gotten ourselves in a position where we’re spending too much money on today and yesterday, and not money enough on tomorrow,” he said during the first panel discussion at the Clinton Global Initiative’s two-day conference in Chicago. “We’re borrowing too much, so that once the economy picks up, we’re creating tomorrow’s problem.”

Clinton said the nation needs to find a better mix for the proportion of the U.S. gross domestic product that is represented by federal spending and taxes.

“We can’t afford to spend 25 percent of GDP on government expenditures,” he said. “I don’t think we can afford to tax at only 15 percent of GDP, either, which is about where we are.”

If you bet on Obama you are betting on a Great Depression because he has no plan. Obama only criticizes other people’s plans because he is a coward and afraid to cut government spending.

QE2 ends today. The cash that helped the bottom line of companies without helping the economy will end. The problems with the American economy have nothing to do with liquidity. The problems are due to a frozen housing market and an inept president, who is a follower of the communist Bill Ayers, co-founded the Weather Underground, a self-described communist revolutionary group that conducted a campaign of bombing public buildings during the 1960s and 1970s. see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Ayers

Morgan Stanley suffered many $millions betting on U.S. inflation. Obama is dragging the world into a great depression by running up national debt when debt has already broken too many countries.

Bank of America was the nation’s best run bank until they were forced to buy Countrywide, the most corrupt company giving away mortgages to people who could not make mortgage payments (i.e. Obama’s support base).

World Markets:
China’s money supply has declined from 30 percent year-over-year in December 2009 to 15 percent year-over-year at the end of May. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in June fell to 50.1, its lowest level in 11 months. Bank loans fell 25 percent in May from April. China may be in for a hard landing.

Canadians’ confidence in the country’s economic prospects fell to its lowest in two years amid concern that the global recovery is stalling. The proportion of Canadians who predict a weaker economy in the next six months rose to 23.6 percent from 19.1 percent in March.


US Economic Highlights
Past Week
This time Obama had them drop last months first two statistics to make this month look better. We will use the original numbers.
Monday
Consumer spending stagnated in May as employment prospects dimmed and inflation rose to 3.6%/ year.
Personal Income May 0.2%, down from 0.4% reported last month.
Personal Spending May –0.1%, down from 0.4% last month
PCE Prices - Core inflation May 0.3% or 3.6%/yr, above the FED 2.5%/yr target level
Yesterday
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr showed new housing prices down -3.96% in April to an 11 month low. Prices decreased in the year ended April by the most in 17 months, showing genius Obama’s housing zero down payment policy for people who cannot afford a house remains a major obstacle for the U.S. recovery. Also the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4 percent from April 2010, the biggest drop since November 2009, the group said today in New York. A backlog of foreclosures and falling sales raise the risk that prices will decline further, discouraging builders from taking on new projects. The drop in property values and a jobless rate hovering around 9 percent are holding back consumer sentiment and spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June to a seven- month low, indicating that slowing employment gains are weighing on Americans’ outlooks, another report today showed. The Conference Board’s index decreased to 58.5 from a revised 61.7 reading in May that was worse than previously estimated.
http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/Pg_conco.htm
MBA Mortgage Index 06/25 -2.7% Vs -5.9% showing home prices are not dropping as fast as before.
Pending Home Sales May rose 8.2% Vs slowing last month -11.6%. At the Obama’s rate it will take over 60 years to liquidate all the homes in default.
Crude Inventories 06/25 dropped -4.375M this week and -1.711M last week. Selling the oil reserves is doing nothing so far for increasing oil available and prices are rising again.

This week’s coming reports
Jun 30 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/25
Jun 30 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/25
Jun 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jun
Jul 1 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jun
Jul 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jun
Jul 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending May
Jul 1 3:00 PM Auto Sales Jun
Jul 1 3:00 PM Truck Sales

Market Outlook June 30, 2011
Consensus forecast for USA 1st quarter GDP growth was 3.5%. It actually was only 1.9% growth. Consensus forecast for the 2nd quarter GDP growth is now also 3.5%. So 1.9% is probably the best Obama can do again by doing nothing again. America needs some hope and change.

U.S. stocks rose Wednesday and hit the 50 DMA and 100 DMA resistance lines at their crossover. Today we look to see how the market will test the rally. Will it break upward or resume the decline. The stock market again on the new bear market resistance trend line! On a cash flow (not price basis) it is a lot worse. Looks like the market will now follow the upper limit down in a continuing bear market. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=%2Ce50%2Ce100&a=m26-12-9&c=


The bear market bounce continued yesterday. We think it is a dead cat bounce because investors are complacent. The VIX is a measure of concern. Low VIX correlates with overconfidence and immanent decline and now fear must rise substantially before the current market sell-off can be considered over. Look how high the VIX has to go now before the bottom is hit in the past! The market typically bottoms with the VIX at 28 or higher. VIX now is only at 17 with 15 being complete investor complacency. It is up only 2 points and far from indicating a market bottom.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Obama and MSNBC/Pravda have been lying about recovery since Obama got elected. This was Cramer/Lenin/Pravda’s main chart for claiming growth until it showed world stagnation instead. Recovery is one of Obama’s big lies just like his campaign lie that we were in a depression one year before the leftists destroyed American real estate and banks by requiring US banks give mortgages to people of Obama’s ethnic heritage who had no visible source of income to make the mortgage payments. Click on the 5yr chart and see full effect of the slowdown in world dry shipments. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Asian Stocks were up last night. China up 1.2%, Hong Kong up 1.5%, India up 0.8%, and Japan up 0.2%.

European markets are flat this morning in a range of about –0.2% to 0.4% half way through their day.

American markets are up 0.2% this morning at 7 AM

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