Monday, July 11, 2011

Bloomberg today reported Europe’s debt crisis and China’s efforts to curb inflation signal the 99 percent rally in the S&P 500 has gone too far.

Bloomberg today reported Europe’s debt crisis and China’s efforts to curb inflation signal the 99 percent rally in the S&P 500 since March 2009 has gone too far. A report showing employers in the U.S. added 83 percent fewer jobs in June than economists projected heightened concern the economy is slowing.

Obama and Janet Napolitano appointed two devout Muslims to Homeland Security Posts
http://www.snopes.com/politics/religion/dhs.asp

Obama said when he was running for president. "We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set," he said Wednesday. "We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well funded." See 1998:
http://kathymendla.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-ready-to-subvert-posse-commitas.html



Hans Bader on July 8, 2011said: US employment growth ground to a halt in June, with employers hiring the fewest number of workers in nine months. Unemployment Rises, Driven Up By Failed Government Policies. U.S. Non-farm payrolls rose only 18,000, the weakest reading since September, the Labor Department said on Friday, well below economists’ expectations for a 90,000 rise. The unemployment rate climbed to a six-month high of 9.2 percent, even as jobseekers left the labor force in droves, from 9.1 percent in May. ‘The message on the economy is ongoing stagnation,’ said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision economics. . . . The government revised April and May payrolls to show 44,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. Our 9.2 percent unemployment rate is much higher than the Obama administration predicted it would be if Congress had refused to pass his $800 billion stimulus package. It claimed unemployment would rise to 8 percent without a stimulus. It argued that Obama’s $800 billion stimulus package would deliver a short-run “jolt” that would quickly lift the economy, but unemployment rose very rapidly after its passage, and the stimulus has actually destroyed thousands of jobs in America’s export sector, and also used taxpayer money to encourage the outsourcing of American jobs to create “green jobs” overseas. New EPA rules will wipe out at least another 800,00 jobs. And another 800,000 jobs will disappear due to Obamacare’s work disincentives. (The CBO noted in October that Obamacare contains disincentives to work that will shrink the labor force by hundreds of thousands of jobs.)

Caterpillar Inc. used offshore subsidiaries in Switzerland and Bermuda to avoid about $2 billion in U.S. taxes from 2000 to 2009, boosting its earnings through a “tax and financial statement fraud,” according to a Caterpillar executive’s lawsuit.

Taxpayers who paid (and their spouses) into Social Security for more than 30 years should not be penalized at all. Only the people who paid in nothing at all (after deducting welfare received) should be removed and then Social security would be solvent.


World Markets:

China’s economy probably grew the least in almost two years last quarter, contributing to a global weakening. Italian and Spanish bonds fell, sending borrowing costs relative to German bunds to euro-era records, while stocks and the common currency dropped on concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread. U.S. index futures slumped.
The “contagion” that has forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts from the rest of Europe now is threatening Italy, as investors demand ever-higher interest rates on Italian government bonds. China’s slowdown was underscored by the weakest import gain since 2009 in June, limiting the chance for Europe to export their way out of their own domestic challenges



US Economic Highlights
Past Week
Michigan Sentiment - June down to 71.5 from 71.8 last month.
Jul 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending May down -0.6% from initially reported 0.4% last month
Employers in the US announced more job cuts.

Nonfarm Payrolls Jun hiring dropped to only 18K from 54K last month. We need 250K to get back to normal
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jun fell to 57K from 83K last month indicating a 3K drop in government jobs.
Unemployment Rate Jun rose to 9.2% from 9.1% last month.
Wholesale Inventories May rose 1.8% vs. 0.8% last month which is not good

This Week
Jul 12 8:30 AM Trade Balance May
Jul 13 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/09
Jul 13 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 07/09
Jul 13 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
Jul 13 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun
Jul 13 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/09
Jul 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jun
Jul 13 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Jun 22
Jul 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/09
Jul 14 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/02
Jul 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM PPI Jun
Jul 14 8:30 AM Core PPI Jun
Jul 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories May
Jul 15 8:30 AM CPI Jun
Jul 15 8:30 AM Core CPI Jun
Jul 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jul
Jul 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jun
Jul 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jun
Jul 15 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jul


Market Outlook July 11, 2011
U.S. stocks were down Friday as investors continue back away just as the very old short-term hedge fund strategy said, ”exiting by the 4th trading day of the following month."
The stock market bubble remains near 2007 levels while real unemployment stands close to 20% and state and local governments have run up many $trillions in deficits that have to be paid back. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e50%2Ce100&a=m26-12-9&c=

Low VIX correlates with overconfidence and immanent decline.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Recovery is one of Obama’s big lies just like his campaign lie that we were in a depression one year before the leftists destroyed American real estate and banks by requiring US banks give mortgages to people of Obama’s ethnic heritage who had no visible source of income to make the mortgage payments. Click on the 5yr chart and see full effect of the slowdown in world dry shipments. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Asian Stocks were down last night. China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down –1.7%, India down –0.7%, Taiwan down -1%, and Japan down -0.7%.

European markets are down this morning in a range of about -0.6% to -2% half way through their day.

American markets are down near –0.9% this morning at 7 AM

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