Thursday, August 4, 2011

The S&P 500 plunge of 2.6 percent Tuesday was the biggest one-day loss in a year and gave the index the longest losing streak since October 2008.

Concern that the World economies are faltering erased $1.07 trillion from American equities in less than two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 plunge of 2.6 percent Tuesday was the biggest one-day loss in a year and gave the index the longest losing streak since October 2008. But stocks plunged again and then recovered losses yesterday.

Obama raised rent subsidies for his chosen people; gave them a negative tax rate, increased their welfare stipends; still gives them houses for no money down, no questions asked; gave $billions of the money of hard working Americans for un-documented and false claims that the Farm Bureau did not subsidize his chosen people enough (all claims that were rejected by the courts prior to Obama). But at least Obama’s chosen people are happy as Obama forces hard working Americans out of jobs to join his chosen people for food and housing assistance.

Moody's Investors Service warned on Tuesday that the USA rating while safe for now has been assigned a negative outlook. Fitch Ratings warned the US rating could be downgraded because the action is insufficient.

Obama signs bill to start down austerity path as economy falters and as his racist trickle-up stimulation plan falls flat on its face. Corporations in fear of socialist confiscation refuse to have anything to do with Obama’s hair-brained socialist ideas. The federal government looks to be getting out of the business of trying to spur the economy just as the U.S. expansion shows increasing signs of faltering. Iran offers Obama advice on foreign policy and Somalia worries about loss of food aid if Obama environmentalists force farmers to stop fertilizing crops. The Obama en-viral-mental-cases have just come out now officially against windmills after condemning nuclear, hydrocarbon and fracked hydrocarbon energy sources. However bio fuels like Obama bullshit are still very popular with leftist hair-brain groups.

World Markets:
Corruption in India is one source of economic problems as more bribes and false corporate reporting has come to light.
Corruption in China appears to be government policy led by inferior fraudulent knock-off copies of American products including three government approved fake Apple stores selling discount knockoff copies of Apple products.

Stocks in Europe fell to another ugly 10-month low, Asia down sharply and the Franc and Yen hit highs. Italy, Spain, and Greece are having still more difficulty selling their government bonds.

More than 50% of the European companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index reporting earnings are missing analysts’ projections. That’s the most since 2006. The benchmark gauge lost 3.1 in July, the largest decline at the start of an earnings season since 2010.

Banks in the biggest emerging markets are losing the confidence of investors as loans turn sour after a two-year credit binge. The Swiss market plunged the most yesterday.

Bad goes to worse as Spain’s hair-brain communist People’s Party threatens to oust the Socialist Party in new election.

Emerging markets ready to plummet. Brazil http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EBVSP&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e100%2Ce200&a=&c=

Asian markets ready to plummet. China
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e100%2Ce200&a=&c=&s=^SSEC
India
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e100%2Ce200&a=&c=&s=^BSESN

Europe’s Swiss market is now plummeting down –4.1% yesterday. Swiss
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e100%2Ce200&a=&c=&s=^SSMI

American Economy-
Past Week
GDP-Adv. Q2 up only 1.3% and down from the previous estimate of 1.9%
GDP Deflator Q2 2.3% which means without inflation the economy contracted 0.3% the inflation last quarter was 2.0% which means without inflation the economy contracted only 0.1% last time. Therefore the economic contraction accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3%.
Employment Cost Index Q2 rose to be 0.7% from 0.6% last quarter.
Chicago PMI Jul shrank to 58.8 from 61.1 reported last time… at a depression level
Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul 63.7 continued show shrinkage of confidence from week level 63.8 last time…bottoming out
IS Manufacturing Index Jul declined to 50.9 from 55.3 last month… at a depression level
Construction Spending Jun rose 0.2% after declining -0.6% last month…good
Personal Income for Jun increased only 0.1% after increasing 0.3% last month.
Personal Spending in Jun fell -0.2% after stagnating at 0.0% last month.
PCE Prices ( Core) for Jun up 0.1% after increasing 0.3% last month.
Auto Sales Jul - NA , Truck Sales Jul – NA. the auto industry is in such a shambles they don’t report Obama-bull officially any more for fear of possible fraud accusations.

Yesterday
MBA Mortgage Index 07/30 up 7.1% compared to -5% last month. Very good for housing
Challenger Job Cuts Jul 59.4% compared to 5.2% last month. Obama job losses
ADP Employment Change Jul 114K compared to 157K. Obama job stagnation
Factory Orders Jun -0.8% compared to 0.8%. Obama economic stagnation
ISM Services Jul 52. compared to 53.3 Obama loss of service jobs
Crude Inventories 07/30 0.950M compared to 2.296M Obama energy shortages.

Today
Aug 4 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/30
Aug 4 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/23

This week
Aug 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jul
Aug 5 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul
Aug 5 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jul
Aug 5 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jul
Aug 5 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jul
Aug 5 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jun

Market Outlook August 4, 2011

While it may be too late for Europe and Asia, American markets probably will have yet another rally when this current debt crisis is over next week. Therefore we are buying stock of good companies that have been driven down in price. Such a rally could recover half the recent losses. But this is not for the faint hearted.
The future of the world is uncertain under Obama leadership vacuum.
The bargains may now continue as the recession is beginning to grip emerging markets and Europe. Some stocks have a long way to fall yet. You can see the VIX peaked a little low showing fear slowed its ascent. It normally peaks at 30 or 40 before a crisis is over. So the VIX implies this decline is going to last for a while.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


The May 2011 low was broken yesterday and that is a confirmation of a head and shoulder breakdown. If that is the case there could be a continued sharp sell off. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50%2Ce100&a=&c=

Recovery was one of Obama’s big lies as he continues to divide America. But now he does not talk about his great accomplishments very much. Click on the 5yr chart and see full effect of the slowdown in world dry shipments. Now most of his supporters are quietly admitting Obama has done nothing as president to help the economy. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Asian Stocks were mixed last night. China up 0.2%, Hong Kong down -0.5%, India down –1.3%, Seoul down –2.3%, and Japan up 0.2%.

European markets were down yesterday and down this morning are in a range of about –0.3% to –2.6% half way through their day.

American markets futures are down today about –1% this morning at 8:30 AM EST

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