Friday, September 23, 2011

Jack Welch this morning described how Obama continues to embarrass America. Jack Welch says Obama ignorantly has allowed

Jack Welch this morning described how Obama continues to embarrass America. Jack Welch says Obama ignorantly has allowed a $300,000 penalty per unemployed person to be inserted in his jobs bill, for corporations found discriminating against the unemployed by not providing jobs they can afford to provide. Obama will spend goes the pile of wealth the corporations could use to spur growth on making trial lawyers millionaires. . There goes the pile of wealth the corporations could use to spur growth. World distress rises as investors see the futility of government planners and the burden of government paid socialist supporting freeloaders weighing down all national economies.

The United Nation’s carbon market will be allowed to slowly die on the vine when the Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas-reduction goals for developed nations expire in 2012 the European Union climate chief said. Europeans avoid being hurt by the system by using the credits that the developing countries get to purchase the European polluting industries and transferring them to the developing countries. “The CDM will continue more or less as it is now,” Hedegaard said in an interview during a visit to New York. China will continue to pollute China’s rivers making solar panels for Obama’s shell corporations that get stimulation money to contribute to Obama’s record $1Billion presidential campaign war chest.

The Fed $400Billion plan is to use principal payments from its holdings of short term debt and reinvest them into agency mortgage-backed securities from government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That “Twist” is indicative that the central bank is intent on stimulating the housing market as well as liquidating mortgage defaults with new refinancing at affordable rates. That will break up the housing market log jamb and create homeowner wealth across America and thus result in consumer sales growth.

The positive intent is clearly fourfold.
1. First by selling longer term, the turnover of current debt is pushed into the future. That is one reason for wanting lower longer rates. It would have been good for Greece if a few years ago they could have taken on 30-year debt at 3% interest because they would not have to turn over at 15% or higher short term interest rates as they do today.
2. The second benefit is that although the cost of long-term debt is higher than short term, having less short-term debt reduces the susceptibility of the economy to the kind of seasonal attacks by speculators that we have seen in Europe. It enhances economic stability.
3. The third benefit is the FED will loosen up the log jamb of housing defaults so sales will jump and the American labor force will become fluid again so people can move freely to where the jobs are and real estate values will rise and the resulting consumer wealth creation can fuel economic recovery again.
4. Pushing debt into the future by lowering future rates also has an anti-inflationary effect in the future.

The FED will still need a strategy to stabilize and prevent the next bubble from forming. The bubble keeps changing form and the FED never seems to recognize it coming.


World markets
China may be tipping now into recession. Land sales are dropping fast, developers are losing access to bank financing, and housing prices seem to have peaked. This can be the beginning of a major recession in China.

Greek socialists and Communists continue to embarrass the EU with striking freeloaders. Athen’s shares are down 6.35% this morning at this moment.

The European Central Bank may act to address risks to growth as soon as next month should economic data disappoint, Governing Council member Luc Coene said. The plan is to lower long-term rates as the USA has done.

The socialists commit crimes against their children with indoctrination. The Nationalist Socialists, the International Socialists, and the Moslem Socialists all do it. It is not the American Way. It is sick, it is corrupt, it is hate unleashed, and it is taught to our children. Was the $2.3Billion loss by corrupt London based ignoramus Kweku Adoboli at UBS anything compared to what Washington based Barrack Hussein Obama (mmm mmm mmm) is getting away with $trillions of funds going to his political supporters and stimulating contributions to this political campaign “War Chest?” Will the socialists be stopped? It worked in 2010 but needs to be done again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3TKMKbifgQ&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=449Qm9YSOLU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gzyeo1Z1I4&feature=related


China sliding into recession? http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#chart3:symbol=000001.ss;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Has Germany bottomed yet? Choose 2 or 5 years. We would say yes.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


The Swiss market has bottomed. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^SSMI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


Emerging markets are in recovery.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


American Economy-
Last week summary
MBA Mortgage listing Index 09/03 -4.9% up considerably from last month’s -9.6%. This is the first of the good news we predicted starting for housing.
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 09/10 up +6.3% after being down -4.9% last month. Great news again for housing.
Core CPI Aug remained constant at 0.2%… no inflation
Sep 16 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Sep 57.8 up from 55.7 but still very low.
Building Permits Aug of 620K while down to 597K they exceed for the first time the houses built in each of the previous two months. Since most permits generate houses this seems to be a turning point.
FOMC Rate Decision Sep unchanged (0.25%) from August.
We need to see Home Sales pick up next
MBA Mortgage Index 09/17 up 0.6% after up +6.3% last month. Very good for housing.
Existing Home Sales Aug up to 5.03M from 4.67M last month. Very good for housing.
AM Crude Inventories 09/17 down -7.336M after down -6.704M last week. Higher prices coming.
FOMC Rate Decision Sep 0.25% no change. The twist will help liquidate defaults and help housing.

Yesterday
Initial Claims 09/17 were 423K down from 428K. Good news
Continuing Claims 09/10 were 3727K flat from 3726K
FHFA Housing Price Index Jul rose 0.8% following a 0.9% improvement. Great news.
Leading Indicators Aug rose 0.3 following a 0.5% improvement in July still a good 6 month forward indicator.


Market Outlook September 23 2011
Sharp stock market sell-offs are occurring now. The longer Greece holds off default the worse it becomes. Greece needs to get kicked out of the EU ASAP..

It is good news that housing starts are moving up, construction spending appears to have bottomed out, and sales are rising now. We need to see Home prices pick up today.

The trading range of equities tested the resistance levels. We still expect a normal advance of up to at least 50% of the total August decline. See:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^NYA&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50%2Ce100&a=&c=

We see a pick up in bulk trade which seems to have bottomed and is finally improving. See 1yr chart at:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND


Stock market update:

Asian Stocks were down again last night. China down –0.4%, Hong Kong down –1.4%, India down –1.2%, Seoul down –5.7%, and Japan closed.

European markets are down again in a range -1% to –4.5% half way through their day.
.
American markets futures are down about –0.3% to –3.7% at 7AM EST.

Obama, the creator of American socialist corruption and the Obama mediocracy, still runs wild. We predict a gradual recovery but with high Obama caused unemployment until the stupid Obama socialists are all voted out of office. When Obama leaves, corporations can safely grow jobs again and unemployment will drop. Right now the Obama socialists are just too stupid to see how their corrupt government meddling to get contributions and kickbacks creates widespread uncertainty and kills jobs everywhere.

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