55% of polled Americans wanted the U.S. Supreme Court to uphold Arizona’s tough immigration law as it just did this past week. Obama, said on Tuesday that he will not enforce that law of the land that he is obliged by the American Constitution to enforce. States constitutionally depend on the Federal government to defend their borders. Obama now refuses to deport illegal immigrants until after the November elections. Up until now, Obama bragged his deportation rate was more than twice the rate of any President before him.

The Rasmussen Presidential Poll for Saturday showed Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote, while President Obama earns 43%. Romney led by 11% among men, and the candidates are even among women. Currently only 23% of the nation's voters strongly approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) strongly disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of –22.

52% Want U.S. Supreme Court to Overturn Obama’s Health Scare Law

54% Still Favor Repeal of Obama’s Health Scare Law

51% See Federal Government As Threat to Their Rights

63% Say Obama is wrong, U.S. Society is Fair and Decent

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama Backers Use Race as their Alibi for Ebbing Support
As he falls in the polls, and his presumed fundraising advantage seems about to become a disadvantage, it's alibi time for his backers. No one wants to admit Obama is even dumber than his V-P Biden and Obama used race to get into Harvard but got such low grades he chose to hide them from the public. So if you don't like Obama-scare, it's not because it threatens to take away your health insurance, or to bankrupt the country. It's because you don't like black people. See:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/obama_backers_use_race_as_alibi_for_ebbing_support



World market this week

Germany’s economic strength is not infinite and should not be tested. China’s economic strength is crumbling and America’s economy has flat-lined and is expected to go nowhere unless Obama is thrown out on his socialist derrière. If the EU bankrupts Germany (and it could) the “Obama Great Depression malignancy” will spread rapidly in the world... and America will be too weak to send troops to stop the spread of socialist government totalitarianism this time.

France and Italy are becoming like two pestering economic ticks urging Germany to give them a little more blood to suck. German Chancellor Angela Merkel hardened her resistance to euro-area debt sharing, raising concern the summit this week will fail to tame the region’s crisis.

Gold is falling because in “Obama’s declared Great Depression,” cash will be king again in America. That is how J.P. Morgan became the richest man in history when he had the cash to buy assets. Because when the Obama Great Depression takes hold, all gold will be confiscated by socialist governments to prevent hyper-inflation. The world must realize by now that Obama's redistribution of wealth from the “hard workers” and entrepreneurs to the stupid, the drug lords, the scam artists, and the lazy is the recipe for all Great Depressions and for totalitarianism.

China’s economy will probably stay in the “doldrums” in coming months, preventing a second-half rally for the nation’s equities, according to the country’s best-performing fund manager of the Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co.

The smartest and most sound government in Europe is Switzerland. Switzerland issues every household a gun! Switzerland's government trains every adult and they issue each a rifle. Switzerland has the lowest gun related crime rate of any civilized country in the world! The American Constitution allows the population to be armed not just to hunt but for armed insurrection against any political demagogue who tries to take away our rights under the American Constitution. Every demagogue tries to change their constitution to take away the citizens arms and to give themselves perpetual terms of office.

The euro fell to the lowest level in more than a week against the yen as Spanish and Italian borrowing costs rose at debt sales amid concern a European Union summit this week will fail to solve the sovereign debt crisis.

It is time to begin buying emerging markets on bad news. The emerging markets, whose economies grew more than four-fold in the past decade, have posted their biggest declines since at 1998. The real, ruble and rupee have weakened the most among developing-nation currencies and the yuan has depreciated more than in any other period since its 1994 devaluation. International corporation profit forecasts are falling due to the exchange rates.

Bloomberg belatedly reports that investors have been fleeing the four biggest emerging markets, and Brazil’s consumer default rate rose to the highest level since the recession began in 2009. Prices for Russian oil exports hit an 18-month low, India’s budget deficit widened and Chinese home prices have slumped. But this has happened over the last two years while many advised that the BRICs were good investments. Just look at China the one everyone else said to buy two years ago:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


Now we say that it is time to selectively invest a small amount in the Emerging markets again as others panic and react to what we have seen and told you for two years. While other markets peaked and then slumped this year we see China may have bottomed out (though still to be confirmed):

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#symbol=000001.ss;range=6m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Emerging markets.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Germany is showing strength: Choose 2 or 5 years

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss are showing strength. Choose 2 or 5 years http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

The world crisis will continue as long as a socialist and a former member of small communist leftist groups is the president of the USA.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/does-george-soros-see-a-united-states-of-europe-O6rxR8S9RrGD9_H67ivGEg.html



American Economy

Generally the USA economic indicators were poor the last two weeks. The polls indicate that while Mitt Romney is the leading presidential candidate, most voters still think Obama will be re-elected and hence they think the economy will not recover in the next four years.

Monday’s more new homes in a housing glut was terrible news. New home Sales in May was at 369K up from 343K last month. New home building is causing the housing market to stay depressed. With more than a full year’s worth of existing new homes in inventory and few new young employed buyers why does Obama think more new house building is a sign of recovery? It is a sign of morons running the American government. Stupid Obama needs to stop government financing incentives for new homes until there is no longer an overhang of vacant houses burning in American cities. Socialists always get things ass-backwards.



Yesterday

Case-Shiller 20-city Index Apr down -1.9% but not as bad as the -2.6% last month. But look how leftist CNBC spun this to make it seem like Obama has a recovery going on. CNBC.com -yesterday said, “US single-family home prices picked up for a third month in a row in April, suggesting the recovery in the housing market is gaining traction, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday. So it only went down -1.9% not –2.6% so the leftists see it as a rise in prices. Socialist and their supporters are by definition stupid or lazy, or both stupid and lazy. They are not compassionate. Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, and Pol Pot were all prominent and popular socialists. Every one of them was a relatively ignorant, evil, opportunist.

Consumer Confidence Jun 62.0 down again from 64.9

This Week

Jun 27 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 06/23

Jun 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders May

Jun 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation May

Jun 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May

Jun 27 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/23

Jun 28 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/23

Jun 28 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/16

Jun 28 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q1

Jun 28 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q1

Jun 29 8:30 AM Personal Income May

Jun 29 8:30 AM Personal Spending May

Jun 29 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core May

Jun 29 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jun

Jun 29 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jun



Market outlook June 27, 2012

A sharp decline may continue and test the lows. If the markets break out, then a much larger move could occur. Caution is advised, as it could be a bear or bull trap when it occurs.

The imminent US Supreme Court decision on Obama's health care morass is expected this week. At the heart of the “Unaffordable Care Act,” dubbed "Obama-scares US" lies the individual mandate that requires every US citizen to take out health insurance or be subject to a fine. Constitutionists argue that Congress overstepped its constitutional prerogatives in requiring individuals to buy insurance, while the Obama administration contends that the move is vital to finally destroy the American insurance industry and federalizie healthcare. “Genius” Obama lies or is just plain stupid whenever he says Europe has nationalized medicine. Britain, France, Germany, etc all have their own medical systems just as California, Massachusetts and New York have their own systems. Likewise “Genius Obama” lies or is just plain stupid when he says Europe has a nationalized educational system. The states of the EU can’t even agree on one language. Of course the elite liberal proletariat like “Genius Obama” are too stupid to know any facts about the real world of socialism like Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, Mao, Castro, Chavez, and the other “liberal geniuses” that have preceded Obama. Obama is the best socialists have to offer...  a dope, a Nigerian/Indonesian tribal ignoramus leader who has had everything handed to him on a silver plattrer including the dogs he said he ate.

It is likely that the high Court will be split and will throw “Obama-scare” back to Congress where nothing will get done until Obama is out of office.  In such a case we expect a flat economy until November. We are taking opportunities but quickly taking profits. We are short-term investing, not long-term investing right now. The market is poised to quickly drop as much as 10%. There could even be a panic sell-off soon.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=ytd;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The second shoulder intermediate 1-year cycle rally did not even approach the previous 1-year cycle high. The Dow Theory uses the 3-mont cycles to predict the 1-year cycles that then predict the 20+-year business cycles. Obama has put the world on a course towards an FDR type full-blown socialist depression. FDR was the socialist who gave us the last Great Depression and it took World War II to end the grip of the European socialists. It took 80 years for the USSR’s socialism to collapse and for China to introduce “free enterprise” as an economic experiment.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=5y;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Obama is such an incompetent boob; a deep depression can only be prevented if this “proletariat genius” is ejected, not elected. The sell signal is seen in 3-month cyclic data.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The VIX says the market is again complacent and dangerous.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Baltic Dry Index is flat-lined. The emerging markets may advance if trade rebounds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:

Asian markets were up slightly last night. China down –0.2%, Hong Kong up 1%, Taiwan up 0.6%, Japan up 0.8%.

European markets were up half way through their day in a range of +0.4% to –0.2%

American market futures are flat at about 0% in after hour trading at 6:30 AM EST.