Friday, October 26, 2012

This election is extremely important for America if we are going to remain in a free and prosperous world. Socialism is a chronic and terminal disease. Our Constitutional right to own guns is not there just for hunting or protecting ourselves from criminals. It is a Constitutional right to rebel against any future dictatorship that tries to take away our American Constitutional protections including our right to own guns and have our form of Republic that uses an electoral college to impede a Hugo Rafael Chávez type dictatorship like they have had for 13 years in Venezuela. America has remained great because our founding fathers knew that a dictatorship of the proletariat (the majority) is the greatest evil. It hides the fact that it is run by a Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, or Hugo Chávez, etc that imprisons or kills their opponents.

Apple is going down the failed litigation path of Microsoft and opening itself to EU and World Court law suits for unfair competition. "Apple Inc delivered a second straight quarter of disappointing results and iPad sales fell well short of Wall Street's targets, marring its record of consistently blowing past investors' expectations." "Apple fails to impress markets with the launch of 'iPad mini'." "But the much-heralded launch left Wall Street underwhelmed," "Apple shares closing down 3.3pc, wiping about $15bn from the company's market value." "Apple Inc must defend against a lawsuits accusing it of letting advertisers secretly track the location and every activity of millions of mobile device users." A US District Judge has delayed Apple's plans to block the US launch of Samsung's Galaxy S III." But far more serious is the failure of Apple to maintain a rate of growth to support its PEG ratio of 0.6 that Steve Jobs maintained.

Obama has made Social Security into a welfare system for the poor and the disabled and while Senior Citizens are entitled to welfare he says the  current seniors did not earn their SocialSecurity and it is not guaranteed to them. Social Security pays for hearing aids, wheelchairs and Ritalin to control disruptive children in schools. Over the years socialists have transformed Social Security into an entitlement for everyone not just for people who contributed to it. And that is how they bankrupted Social Security. When 51% of voters are on socialist welfare entitlements the working people of America will be taxed and will be the slaves keeping socialism alive until they go on strike. It is time to quote the wisdom our American founding fathers again.

The American Constitution was the first in the world to protect the rights of individuals, minorities, and states by limiting the power of the federal government. It was well understood from earlier democracies that in a democracy of three persons, two persons could create and pass laws to legally expropriate and redistribute the wealth or labor of any third person. Thomas Jefferson to P. Dupont in 1816 wrote; "The majority oppressing an individual, is guilty of a crime, abuses its strength, and by acting on the law of the strongest breaks up the foundation of society."

James Madison in the Federalist Papers, Feb 5, 1788 wrote to the Massachusetts Convention, "but as a just government protects all alike, it is necessary that the sober and industrious part of the community should be defended from the rapacity and violence of the vicious and idle. A bill of rights, therefore, ought to set forth the purposes for which the compact is made, and serves to secure the minority against the usurpation and tyranny of the majority."

In 1824 Thomas Jefferson the founder the Democratic Party also wrote (note in Tracy's Political Economy, 1816), "To take from one, because it is thought that his own industry and that of his fathers has acquired too much, in order to spare to others, who, or whose fathers have not exercised equal industry and skill, is to violate arbitrarily the first principle of association, the guarantee to every one of a free exercise of his industry, and the fruits acquired by it." In fact under English colonial law the ruling majority had already democratically classified some minority peoples as goods to be bought, used, and sold. Slavery is a democratic choice in N. Korea. As long as everyone is a slave to a dictator, no one is a slave. We pledge allegiance to a Republic (not a democracy) because that is what the Founding Fathers intended. The American Constitution was designed for a Republic specifically to limit federal government power. The government is divided into three branches of power, each completely unique with differing election terms, checks and balances. In the Senate, small states have the same power as populous states. In the electorate the smaller states also get more weight. That is why an American President is elected by the Electoral College not the majority of Americans and that was different in year 2000 and on other occasions. These impediments to strong centralized majority power were included in the American Constitution because every pure democracy before America was short lived and often ended in a bloodbath.

If current forecasts are correct, hurricane Sandy will grow into a "Frankenstorm" and may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years.

Shares in the world's most valuable technology company briefly dipped to levels not seen since the start of August, after it delivered a 27 percent rise in revenue for its fourth quarter while earnings rose 24 percent.  The numbers, while in line with expectations, lacked the positive surprises that investors had grown used to and came after Apple undershot revenue targets in the previous quarter.

Colgate will cut 6 percent of jobs in their restructuring program.

Obama did not mention "Human caused climate change" once in his campaign and he is a big disappointment to his Lunatic Fringe.  Good for him.

Wednesday, Warren Buffet attributed the Obama economic malaise to the business uncertainties of his policies and deficits.

Bloomberg reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advised President Barack Obama last month to back off, saying the U.S. had "no moral right" to stop Israel from attacking Iran in a bid to cripple its nuclear program. In turn, Obama decided not to meet the Israeli leader again on his next visit to the U.S. Obama compounded the snub when he said in a "60 Minutes" interview that he would "block out the noise" of Netanyahu.

When Mitt Romney is elected we can expect that John Gault will likely say it is time for free enterprise and American creativity to engage the world again. The world with Obama has become a world of mayhem. He has destabilized the entire Mid-East, and a state of Obama mayhem exists now in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Somalia, and Afghanistan.

GM sells a few thousand Volt cars at a huge loss to American taxpayers that still own most of GM because Obama can’t sell the stock we taxpayers own without bankrupting other investors a second time by making the stock worthless. No one in his or her right mind buys GM stock these days after his or her experience with government management at GM. That is what socialists do, they destroy private enterprise by bankrupting investors so investors join John Galt on strike.

Obama is using the EPA to destroy American auto industry. He brags about car sales being up but if you look at the numbers, foreign auto sales have been growing twice as fast as American sales in America since Obama was elected. Romney made it clear that Obama is either a liar, a fear monger, or just ignorant for not knowing that bankruptcy is a standard American free enterprise process for restructuring corporations in exchange for forgiving their debt. It is only after several bankruptcies that an Airline or other corporation is driven to finally fail by their powerful unions. Then bankruptcy finally shuts them down. Powerful unions have destroyed our auto industry, our American public educational system, and State worker’s unions are now destroying our state governments and they are financing socialist candidates. They are the main reason the cost of government, education, and health care are out of control.

When quantitative easing runs out of steam interest rates will rise. Treasuries just fell, pushing 10-year yields to the highest in five weeks, before a $29 billion sale of seven-year notes. Perhaps this is the end of the road for QE.

Boeing disclosed a 6% dip in third-quarter profits due to higher pension expenses.

Colgate will cut 6 percent of jobs in restructuring program.

The U.S. said Wednesday it is suing Bank of America for $1 billion on allegations that Countrywide engaged in a scheme to defraud' Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac between 2007 and 2009 before Goldman Sack’s Paulson forced BOA to take over Countrywide because everyone knew Countrywide was engaged in fraud. BOA was America’s greatest bank before they stood up to the Socialists and tried to get out of that countrywide acquisition.  

3M sales were down and forecast it will hit profits next time.

Xerox net income was down 12%.

Xerox is indicating very weak sales.

Presidential candidate Mitt Romney began this final full month of the 2012 campaign with $178 million to spend Bloomberg compared with $111 million for befuddled Obama.

The White House still hasn’t even agreed to direct talks with Iran’s government on its maniacal nuclear program, even as Iran remains open to such negotiations, National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

Apple plans to announce the little iPad that is what they said their big iPad was supposed to make obsolete.

The Rasmussen Reports Thurdsay Presidential Tracking poll shows; Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote while President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide. The Obama Great Depression would get a lot deeper if he wins.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

World Economies
Meyer Burger Technology, Europe’s biggest provider of equipment to the solar industry, fell 6 percent to the lowest intraday value in 2 1/2 years low as analysts see that demand is the product of corrupt socialist environmental science. Gradually the West is waking up to the fact that the bad science of the USSR is the model for "socialist global warming science." There is a failure of Western schools to teach "critical thinking" as socialist teachers unions run western schools. Intelligent Scientists says there has been a global warming and cooling cycle for a million years before there were humans and the amount of CO2 liberated by burning fossil fuels is insignificant compared to how much was in the atmosphere when it was laid down in the earth.

Unemployment in Spain sets a new record exceeding 25% While Italian business confidence fell this month fueled pessimism among manufacturers (manufacturing-sentiment index) declined this month from a 88.3 in September to 87.6.

Seasonal oil retail prices are now sliding rapidly as the northern hemisphere finishes filling their heating fuel tanks and vacations in the northern hemisphere decline rapidly.

South Africa’s debt-service costs and falling tax receipts from the poor who once had jobs, are threatening to undermine spending on police, housing and schools adding to deepening strains on the socialist welfare state. They have been following Obama’s ideas for four years.

Japan had a record trade deficit for the April to September period, as sovereign debt troubles in Europe and rising tensions with China caused Japanese exports to decline.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority continues to manipulate their currency downward to control the exchange rate which has climbed to HK$7.75 an upper limit for manipulation.

Ford Motor Co. will shut three European plants and will cut about 5,700 jobs to stem losses that the company predicts will exceed $1 billion in 2012.

Britain exited their double-dip recession in the third quarter as Olympic ticket sales and a surge in services provided the strongest growth in five years.

Russia’s largest retirement funds are being scuttled by the corrupt Putin government. Putin wants to steal their $70 billion in pensions saved by frugal Russians to pay current expenses of the socialist demagogues.

China’s output decline is now decelerating and appears to be bottoming as the Obama depression looks to be voted out of office in two weeks.

World oil is at a three month low.

The Ifo institute in Munich said the computer business climate index dropped to 100.0 from 101.4 in September That’s the sixth straight decline and the lowest reading since February 2010.

Euro-area services and manufacturing contracted more than economists forecast in October and German business confidence dropped to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years as Europe’s recession deepened. Themposite index of purchasing managers in services and manufacturing fell to 45.8, the lowest in more than four years, from 46.1 in September. Economists had forecast an improvement to 46.5, according to Bloomberg. In Germany, the Ifo institute’s business climate index dropped to 100.0 from 101.4 in September.

EU Quantitative Easing has another court challenge from Ireland on Tuesday.

Spanish junk debt was downgraded by Moody again.

The 17 nation EU debt climbed to 87.3 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 from 85.4 percent the previous year, the EU’s statistics office in Luxembourg said Monday. That’s a new record high since the euro was introduced in 1999. Greece topped the list with debt at 170.6 percent of GDP, followed by Italy and Portugal at 120.7 percent and 108.1 percent. The EU’s debt-to-GDP limit is supposed to be 60 percent.

Canada has rejected the takeover of its gas energy resources by an Asian company and that worries China.

Europe has a plan to do something for Spain… tomorrow or next year, whichever comes last.

Oil traded near the lowest close in two weeks on speculation that global demand may weaken. But speculators had been using empty barges to hide the oil and drive prices higher. That is why the swings in prices are so great.

China’s stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to the greatest loss in weeks, on concern corporate earnings are worsening and local governments will take further steps to cool the property market.

Japanese exporters dropped as shipments slid 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of $7 billion.

Credit Suisse, UBS expects to cut 7,000 jobs.

China’s funds are looking more attractive.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.ss;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

Emerging markets seem to be forming a market bottom. We are selective buyers. The rising tide of a Romney presidency will carry the world markets higher too if he wins.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^BVSP+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^bvsp;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefine

Emerging market composite indicates it may be forming a market bottom or a low.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPTSE+Interactive#symbol=^gsptse;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

German stocks gave a sell signal in 2011 and have to rise a few more percent to give a buy signal again. Choose 2 or 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

The Swiss Market is also testing moving averages. It gave a sell signal last year. It is at a new high for 2012 and closing in on a new buy signal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ESSMI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^ssmi;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

American Economy
Bank of America is fairly optimistic, with a 1,450 price target on the Standard & Poor's 500 (^GSPC) through year's end and a 1,600 target for 2013.

There is a fiscal cliff ahead and if Romney wins will Obama spitefully push America over the cliff as his last presidential act? The cliff comes January 1 and Mitt Romney would not be president then and Obama would still have his Lame Duck democrat Senate.

MBA Mortgage Index 10/20 -12.0% down further from -4.2%. This includes both existing and new housing and it is down.

New Home Sales Sep 389K up from 373K. This says new housing sales are up 4.2% over the previous month and the previous statistic said the total was down another 12%. That means existing home sales fell 16.2%. That means the Obama/Bernanke housing policy continues at a high level of incompetence.

FHFA Housing Price Index Aug 0.7% increased from 0.2%

Crude Inventories 10/20 5.896M increased from 2.860M as speculators dump on the market the oil they hid in tankers.

FOMC Rate Decision Oct 0.25% no change from 0.25%

Today

Initial Claims 10/20 369K down from 388K

Continuing Claims 10/13 3254K up from 3252K

Durable Orders Sep 9.9% a good increase from -13.2%

Durable Orders -ex Transportation Sep 2.0% also a good improvement from -1.6%

Pending Home Sales Sep 0.3% up significantly from -2.6%

This Week

Oct 26 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q3

Oct 26 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3

Oct 26 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Oct

Market outlook Oct 26, 2012
This election is extremely important for America if we are going to remain in a free and prosperous world. Socialism is a chronic and terminal disease and Obama is a hard-boiled socialist who is insane enough to run guns and kill 30,000 innocent Mexicans to try to make guns illegal in America.

Many stocks continue near their lows and are good investments. But unless Mitt Romney wins, the world will have a worsening four years. Mitt Romney continues to advance in the Rasmussen polls. If Obama wins re-election, America and the world will be in deep trouble because he is a Greek style socialist that is usually ignorant, quarrelsome, and lazy.

The fiscal cliff is still an unpleasant uncertainty unless Romney wins Congress as well as the presidency.

The DJRails must still confirm the DJIndustrials for there to be a new DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. But evidence is that the two are now converging and it is a matter of there being another rally.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The NYSE is much more representative of the US economy than are the DOW indices. Examine the last 5 years of the NYSE. The one-year cycle is still sell but the three months now gives hope for a future buy signal. While it shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows if he is re-elected we have hope of an anticipated recovery if Obama is thrown out.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed to meet even the last 3-month shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal. But bulk trade is rising and October looks like a turn around beginning. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=1m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The rise of the stock market was the effects of the Ponzi QE3 scheme. In Japan it led to their 22-year recession and a market that eventually declined for the last 22 years. We have get Obama out and stop his QE Ponzi scheme.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=2y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

The USA VIX is flat lined. It appears to be manipulated. A low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. The driving force this year is the election and whether the Obama loses.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Well the Baltic Dry Index dropped again but is in an upward trend. China probably hit bottom and has begun to bounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
Asian markets followed were down sharply last night with China down -1.7%, Hong Kong down -1.2%, India down -0.7%, S. Japan up 1.4%.

European markets are down half way through their day an average of about 0% to 0.9%

American market futures are down about -0.4 % again in after-hour trading at 9:00 AM EST. This indicator does not correlate with anything.

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