Republicans should smarten up and propose schedules for 1)the allowable growth in the Federal Government expenditures and 2), allowable level of Federal debt. They should first show the graphs for what Obama predicts. If that is acceptable to the Republicans they should hold him to his predictions and set the Federal Debt ceiling to what Obama promises. If they disagree with Obama they should set the annual allowable Federal Debt ceiling to their own level but never compromise to a position above what Obama targeted. Talk of a recovery in China or the USA or Brazil is ignorance on the part of analysts. Look at the bulk world trade and see how it has just collapsed again!!! And the long-shore unions have just gone on strike because there is no work and they want a guaranteed job!

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

The FED is a manipulator of American financial markets. Currently the FED is buying near worthless mortgage and other asset basis debt and borrowing against it to buy treasuries to keep interest rates low and propping up American markets flush with cash so that investors and businesses will continue to invest. But the economy is no longer growing so investors are now buying equities  at market highs. We are witnessing the silent dissolution of small and medium businesses and the major market indicators do not show the damage being done because the large companies are buying up the pieces for the present moment. American industrial capacity is being hollowed out with Obama’s socialism and class warfare that is turning more and more violent. Socialism is equality of poverty as opposed to the inequality of hard work and striving for a better education and a good job. 
Socialism is reverse slavery.  The hard workers support the people who's life stile is the easy life.  That is why the entitlements of socialism always destroy the incentive to strive, to learn. and to contribute to society.

As we said before we think Apple is a slowly sinking ship without Steve Jobs. Apple sank well below MSNBC/Pravda/ Cramer’s $556 buy target price level so Crammer is saying buy again. Apple’s Tim Cook has a face-off coming with Steve Jobs best ever quarter and the new insecure Apple president has fired several of the founders hand picked executives to eliminate any threat to his position. Tim Cook put a half-baked Apple map application on their latest product line against the advice of his developer, just to try to harm Google. Then he fired the person who was developing the Apple map application and put Google back in. Soon all the executives Steve picked will realize they are on a sinking ship just like the time Steve himself was fired from Apple. Samsung will now counter-sue Apple to the US Supreme court if necessary to fight the suit Tim Cook brought that was meant to bully, intimidate and silence Samsung. This alone could cost Apple $1Billion. Apple’s etch-a-sketch screen is an excellent toy as long as you can throw it away and get a new one every year. The average buyer is said to be a fourteen year old boy and it is used primarily as a toy for games which seems to be what the next generation wants for amusement. Apple has no business-oriented line of products and Cramer is a fool if he thinks Apple toys will destroy the PC business application industry. Voice commands will replace touch screens.

Obama is supporting unions that shut down several American ports at a cost of $1Billion lost revenue per day per port. At each port about "$760 billion worth of goods are just idled each day." As they continue to negotiate, both sides say wages, pensions, vacations and other benefits are not an issue. The union says average clerical salaries are about $87,000 a year. When benefits are factored in, that raises annual compensation to $165,000. Management has offered a new contract that would raise that amount to about $195,000 by 2016, along with providing 11 weeks of paid vacation. These are clerks mind you not the high paid union workers. They have high a school education. They say they elected Obama and now Obama owes them a favor and they want him involved now and forget the fiscal cliff. The union members realize they are all obsolete so they are striking for the socialist dream of a high paying job for life where they only are required to pretend they work. When the USSR collapsed they pretended to pay the their workers who pretended to work. It took from 1917 to 1989 for the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and about 80million people imprisoned, tortured and executed for the USSR to disintegrate.

http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2012/12/04/los-angeles-port-union-striker-workers/

　

World Economies

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/

http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is stepping up scrutiny of Chinese companies for suspected "Enron" levels of accounting fraud. In a recent enforcement action, the commission accused affiliates of the four biggest Chinese accounting firms of refusing to produce documents needed for SEC investigations. Carson Block is shorting many stocks in China now and claims tattooed Chinese gangsters have threatened his people.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/carson-block-goes-short-unafraid-as-gangsters-in-china-chase-him.html

Chinese company won in an auction to purchase much of Obama’s failed bankrupt green crony socialist battery maker, A123 System Inc.'s business.

China’s market continues to fall but could be near a new bottom.

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Japan may finally be bottoming from their Quantitative easing they started in 1985 and collapsed their growth in 1990. It looks like the bottom has held for two years now.http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

No, not even Germany has confirmed a bull market. However it is testing the previous high and could have a breakout soon. This could be the top of the world stock markets until the USA and Greece get their acts together.http://in.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGDAXI#symbol=^gdaxi;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

American Economy

The National Federation of Independent Business’s monthly optimism survey index fell to 87.5, the lowest reading since March 2010, from 93.1 in October, and one of the largest monthly drops since records began in 1986. The "expect better economy" gauge fell to -35 from a positive reading of 2, an unprecedented swing, and its lowest ever reading. At the height of the US debt-ceiling debate in August 2011, this component fell to -26. Roughly half of owners feel certain that things will be much worse next year than they are now. Between the $1Trillion possible Obama cut to defense spending, the higher healthcare costs with 40 million indigents added and the endless new business regulations; owners have found themselves in a state of pessimism. We are forced to ask: is this Zimbabwe redistribution or what? If it is socialism’s redistribution then there is no place for new start-ups. It certainly is not free enterprise with the right to keep the products of one’s labor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe　

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

If we continue on the current path we expect the US dollar to fall under pressure before the end of 2013 as the tax revenue falls off and the 2014 projected deficit explodes.

Last week
Dec 11
Trade Balance Oct -$42.2B worsened from -$40.3B

Wholesale Inventories Oct 0.6% improved from 1.1%

Dec 12

MBA Mortgage Index 12/08 6.2% improved from 4.5%

Export Prices ex-ag. Nov -0.7% dangerously deflationary from 0.2%

Import Prices ex-oil Nov -0.2% dangerously deflationary from 0.4%

Crude Inventories 12/08 0.843M increasing from -2.357M

FOMC Rate Decision Dec 0.25% 0.no change from 0.25%

Treasury Budget Nov $172.1B makes no sense from -$137.3B Obama manipulation of government statistics

Dec 13

Initial Claims 12/08 348K down from 370K adjusting for Obama manipulation of moving bad news in after reporting it good.

Continuing Claims 12/01 3214K up from 3205K adjusting for Obama manipulation

Retail Sales Nov 0.3% improved from -0.3%

Retail Sales ex-auto Nov 0.0% same bad news as 0.0%

PPI Nov -0.8% dangerously deflationary from -0.2%

Core PPI Nov 0.1% not significant -0.2%

Business Inventories Oct 0.4% still bad from 0.7%

Dec 14

CPI Nov -0.3% deflationary from 0.1% -

Core CPI Nov 0.1% flat 0.2%

Industrial Production Nov 1.1% improved from-0.4%

Capacity Utilization Nov 78.4% improved from 77.8%
　

Dec 14, 2012
It they do nothing, we would prepare for a sell-off of unprecedented magnitude that shakes the foundation of Wall Street. Raising taxes on individuals will reduce consumer spending. Raising taxes on business will reduce business investment and American jobs and thus reduce consumer spending as well. Reduced consumer spending will further reduce jobs. Consumers are already spending most of their disposable income so higher taxes translates directly into reduced consumer consumption. We are already seeing deflationary pressure and are tip toeing around a great double dip Obama depression like the on the socialist FDR had. He is not considered a socialist today but was considered one in his time. It just shows the USA is slowly creeping toward socialism with its poverty, class warfare and its union violence.

But by April 15, tax revenue will be increasing because people are taking profits now before the tax increase. Taxes on those profits come due next year. So the benefits of the surge in tax revenue will sharply reduce deficits because it will be exaggerated two fold in 2013 mostly because people are taking profits before 2013 begins. But that extra tax in 2013 will not be available in future years and the extreme increase in taxes next year will cause people to try to postpone taking 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 profits. That will make 2014 a disaster in that deficits will rise sharply in a deeper 2013-16 recession. The USA will look much like Greece if Obama does not cut spending. But if he cuts spending the recession will initially be deeper. Still it will at least come to an end sooner.

At the moment there is heightened activity because investors are taking profits now because taxes will be higher next year. Not only will Fed taxes be higher but also city and state taxes will no longer be deductible for computing Federal Taxes. Cities in NY and CA will be in greater pain by 2014 than in states with lower taxes. The bulk of the next slowdown will be felt by the Stock Market by the end of the first quarter 2013 but hope will begin to spring back as revenues top expectations. We could have +_20% stock market swings. The market could take off at the moment the revenues rise sharply. So I would want to get invested before the good news is out and that could be just after the worst news is out.

So at present many are taking profits before the new taxes but it may not be advisable to re-invest profits right now as they are doing. We know that because volume is up but the market is just churning. What Obama is doing will make things progressively worse. He is not bright enough to know the revenue in 2013 is not his policy but the negative reaction to his negative policy (which is a positive tax windfall). That revenue will be wasted again and tax revenue will plummet in 2014 because there will be few corporate profits in 2013.
　

The DJ Rails continue to contradict the DJIndustrials and there still no DOW buy signal. The DJI and DJR confirmed a sell signal together in August 2011and the DJR remains confirming that sell signal today. But evidence is that the two are now converging and it is a matter of there being another rally.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=3m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

As we predicted the market shows that Obama may be taking America into a profoundly deeper depression breaking 2009 lows since he was re-elected and we have little hope of a recovery with Obama in office.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=5y;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The Dow Theory Industrials and Rails sell signal of August 2, 2011 still holds. The Rails failed to meet even the last 3-month shoulder of the head and shoulder sell signal. But bulk trade is rising and October looks like a turn around beginning. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJT+Interactive#symbol=^djt;range=1m;compare=^dji;indicator=;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

The USA VIX is flat lined. A low VIX normally precedes a sell-off. Once that starts the VIX needs to go up above 30 until bear markets normally end. Volume is so low it implies Americans are fleeing stocks again.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Is the Baltic Dry Index is dropping toward a new low. China probably hit bottom and has begun to bounce like a dead cat…unfortunately. And Obama stalling the American economy will compound the worldwide recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

Stock market update:
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe