With the ECB cutting its benchmark interest rate to a record
low Wednesday as the euro-area recession deepens, Draghi said policy makers
have an “open mind” on reducing their so- called deposit rate below zero for
the first time in history. That means
the Feds would literally pay you for going into debt! Isn’t that like another entitlement of the
kind that got the world in this socialist mess in the first place? With capitalism you have a single crash and
all the entitlements and big debtors fail and are quickly gone so that the economy can recover
quickly.
When they cut from 4% to 2% over a period of time older
treasuries doubled. Now when they cut
from 2% to 1% all the older treasuries doubled again. Then when they cut from 1% to 0.5% all the
older treasuries doubled again. Then
when they cut from 0.5% to 0.25% all the older treasuries doubled again. You can see this is an infinite progression.
But if the rates keep dropping the stock market will collapse periodically
because Treasuries keep doubling.
Companies added fewer workers than forecast in April; an
indication the labor market has cooled along with the rest of the U.S. America
has now joined Japan
United Steelworkers Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected a
proposed six-year contract with Caterpillar Inc. that would have stabilized
wages, increased contributions to cover higher Obama health care costs and
offered union employees a more secure retirement fund.
The Commerce Department reported construction spending in
the U.S.
Manufacturing expanded in April at the slowest pace this
year and companies took on the fewest workers in seven months, adding to
evidence America
The GDP has tanked again.
Consumer sentiment is still in the doldrums.
Factory orders year to year increases have become stuck near
zero %.
New home sales have finally risen to the very lowest levels
of previous recessions.
Housing permits and starts have been at the lowest levels
seen in thirty years.
Producer and Consumer price indices are declining again as
if we were slipping into another recession on top of Obama’s 5 year recession.
The two rallies before hardly felt a correction:
And the two rallies before those saw a 10% correction a 10% recovery
and then the sharp 20% selloff in 2011
Merck posted weaker quarterly revenue, sales, and income on
increased generic competition, sending shares of the biotech behemoth sliding
more than 2% in pre-market action.
Yahoo abandons French Dailymotion bid amid French socialist government
interference.
In an attempt to pare down the paperwork for insurance under
the Affordable Care Act, the Obama has reduced the 17 page application to a
three-page application (for illegal immigrants and those on welfare) shorter
than SEC and IRS government standards of paperwork.
Chrysler Group said Monday that its net income fell 65
percent in the first quarter
Notice that all the DJI continues to fail to break out and
set a new buy signal in the latest rally and the other markets showed no
breakout either even though they had not moved as far as the DJI. Market maker cheerleading can only do so
much. The same topping of markets is
occurring in all of Europe and Asia .
Also, you can see that the stocks in a selected index become
favorites (e.g. DJI) and consequently that portfolio of stocks rises faster and
gives the false impression that the whole market advances several extra percent
points each year giving doing much better than it actually is doing. And therefore almost no investor averages as
well as an index does. Investors have
the same gambler’s remorse and it has them thinking and saying they actually
had the gains of the index. It is an
illusion. But it is still the best way
to save for the future.
Terrorism will not end until Moslem Jihads are declared worldwide
to be crimes against humanity just as evil as anything Hitler did. Why doesn’t the International Court
World Economies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
Oil prices are down about 10% from the previous world wide
norm. Soon oil production will need to
be cut to sustain price levels and American technologies bring fracking of gas
on-line world wide.
Copper fell in London
Herbalife logged a profit of $1.27 a share, easily besting
estimates of $1.07. Herbalife hasn’t missed EPS estimates since the fourth
quarter of 2008. The nutrition marketing
company earned $118.86 million, or $1.10 a share, last quarter, compared with
$108.16 million, or 88 cents a share, a year earlier.
Guenter Schiffmann/Bloomberg. Daimler AG, the world's
third-largest maker of luxury vehicles, last week cut its 2013 profit forecast
after first- quarter earnings tumbled
In spite of the flooding of the world with US currency, the German
market has hit but has still failed to break out from the 2007. Remember since 2008 we had over 15% inflation
when we include food and energy so the market is still 15 off the real high
when the high is hit. The German market continues to hit resistance.
The Greek market indicates stagnation since year 2000.
The French market indicates stagnation since year 2000.
The Swiss market indicates stagnation since 2007. But once again look at the spike up in stock
prices with Bernanke’s $85,000,000,000/month gift from America
The NYSE is similar
to the British and Swiss and indicates stagnation since 2007 given in excess of
15% inflation but the market no similar market advance.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ENYA+Interactive#symbol=^nya;range=my;compare=;indicator=ema(200,100)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
American Economy
The DJI failed to break out.
Now that the Big Brother and the FED is inflating the money supply the
new highs don’t even Given the inflation exceeding 15% since the last high in
2008 it has a long way to go to break even in 2008 dollar value.
The DJA in 2013 is also now at a record high due to
inflation. Look at the spike up this year as $85,000,000,000 flows into markets
each month.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJA&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
This week
Apr 29
Personal Income Mar
0.2% sharply down from 1.1% -
Personal Spending Mar 0.2% also sharply down from 0.7% -
PCE Prices - Core Mar 0.0% deflationary down from 0.1% -
Pending Home Sales Mar 1.5% very low seasonal increase -0.4%
-
Apr 30
Employment Cost Index
Q1 0.3% little change 0.5%
Case-Shiller 20-city Index Feb 9.3% little change 8.1%
Chicago PMI Apr 49.0 6% decline 52.4 - --
Consumer Confidence Apr 68 going nowhere.-
http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=consumer_sentiment
May1
MBA Mortgage Index 04/27 1.8% seasonal increase 0.2% -
ADP Employment Change Apr 119K hiring down sharply from 158K---
ISM Index Apr 50.7 sharply down from 51.3 - --
Construction Spending Mar -1.7% sharply lower from 1.5% ---
Crude Inventories 04/27 6.696M up from 0.947M causing crude
prices and other commodities to plummet Wednesday
FOMC Rate Decision May 0.25% nothing new.
May 2
Challenger Job Cuts Apr -6.0% sharply lower from 30.0% -
Initial Claims 04/27 324K down slightly from 339K +
Continuing Claims 04/20 3019K Up from 3000K --
Productivity-Prel Q1 0.7% questionable data last time -1.7%
Unit Labor Costs Q1 0.5%
questionable data last time 4.6%
Trade Balance Mar -$38.8B
slight improvement -$43.0B
Natural Gas Inventories 04/27 43 bcf improved from 30 bcf
May 3
Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 165K up from 138K +
Nonfarm Private Payrolls Apr 176K up from 154K +
Unemployment Rate Apr 7.5% down from 7.6%
Hourly Earnings Apr 0.2% up from 0.0%
Average Workweek Apr 34.4 down from 34.6 - -
Factory Orders Mar fell -4% reversing the former growth of
3.0% ---
ISM Services Apr also dropped to 53.1 from 54.4 -
The Markets May 3, 2013
The over supply of materials, oil and gas is due to the
declines in the world economies and hides the underlying growth of inflation. Once the
economic decline levels off, inflation will surge. Gold is not in a bear market it is only
reacting to the current slowdown and the administration attempting to inflict
maximum damage for the sequester by making the most juvenile choices of what government programs to
cut. That infantile administration
strategy of spite is angering businessmen and their customers.
Bull markets once ran 3 years
then 4 years but rarely 5 years. Ours
has already run 4 years so far. Bear
markets follow for 1 to 2 years.
Look at the recent Bulls- Bears indicator. More bulls than bears means more exuberance
or topping. http://www.martincapital.com/index.php?page=graph&view=investors_intel
Can world trade go any lower or has it flat lined? Look at the last 5 years. It still looks close to zero growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Bernanke is pushing on a string. The FED has run out of leverage at close to
0% short term interest rates.
The VIX behaved this way in 2006 and 2007when the bubble
began to unravel but the market did not collapse until 2008. Again look at 5 years and you see the worst
is yet to come. The VIX would normally
top out above 30 before the bear market ends.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
No comments:
Post a Comment