Monday, March 31, 2014

Apr 3 The stock market is extremely-extremely illiquid. The danger now is that a crash could wipe out many hedge funds that have run up stock prices because they are no longer hedging. Many stopped hedging about two years ago. This is an entirely new type of bubble we are facing now. The idea of hedging one’s bet was based on the assumption that we cannot predict the markets but we can differentiate between the stock leaders and losers in each industry. So the hedge funds computed alphas for each stock category and bought the high alpha stocks and shorted the low alpha stocks. That worked well in a normal market. But last year the bubble boosted even the stocks that were dogs, and many hedge funds did poorly because in a bubble even dogs can fly.

Therefore, starting last year the funds also threw good judgment out the window and jumped into the market with both feet.  The economy has been a dog for seven years and Europe is seeing new signs of a depression coming.  It has already hit the emerging countries.  We can no more believe Obama than we can believe Putin.  Obama and Putin keep putting out fake economic data.
 
The middle class conjures images of self-sufficient people with stable jobs and pleasant homes working toward prosperity.  Yet nearly five years after Obama said his Great Recession ended, more people are coming to the painful realization that they're no longer part of the middle class.  Former professionals now stock shelves at grocery stores, retirees struggle with rising costs and people working part-time jobs are desperate for full-time pay.  Since Obama was elected, the number of people who call themselves middle class has fallen by nearly 20%, according to a survey in January by the Pew Research Center, to just 44 percent of Americans.   Now forty percent identify themselves as either just lower class or lower-middle class compared with only 25 percent before Obama (BO).
 
Since Obama BCE has replaced BC.  BCE means before the current era.
 
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. posted a 13 percent drop in attendance at its theme parks.
 
Mar 31    Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA)'s General Manager Kingston Chang in China has left the company as the electric carmaker gears up to enter in the world's most expensive car to produce in the worlds largest auto market for inexpensive cars.  Tesla will not be able to mass produce the cars until it can cut the cost of batteries 75% and develop a way to fix the leaks and fires, and to recycle all the toxic chemicals used in the batteries.  Tesla will be one of the investment disasters of this year’s pump and dump technological nonsense that has reached all time highs.  The Tesla cars have all the acceleration characteristics of the electric bumper cars at the Coney Island and other amusement parks.  That technology is what amusement parks are built on.  “There ain’t nuttin new about dem” as Jimmy Durante would say.  Walt Disney Co has been using the technology for years.   Amusement rides are based on the acceleration you get with electric motors.  What has made Tesla investors so dumb?  Probably they listen to the same investment advisors that made Bitcom a hit on Wall Street.
 
60 Minutes said yesterday, “The Stock Market is rigged by Wall Street and high speed trading that jacks up the stock price before we buy and that sells before we sell. “  They make pennies off of each of the trillions of shares sold.
 
California is now #1 in national poverty and taxes.  It is now 24th in education and close to last in new jobs.  It has $500 Billion in unfunded liabilities according to Squawk Box.
 
World Economies
April 3
China has outlined a new stimulus package after signs its economy is slowing at a faster pace.
 
IMF warned Wednesday that the world faces “years of slow and subpar growth”, highlighting the contrast between the stock market bubble and economic reality.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26861903
Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, KKR & Co., and TPG Capital, the firms that acquired Energy Future Holdings Corp. in the biggest-ever leveraged buyout, would have their investment all but wiped out in a reorganization plan being discussed.
Putin’s standoff with the U.S. and the European Union over Ukraine poses a threat to the weak global economy said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
 
Mar 31
The economic hype is getting quite intense as many countries are trying to ward off the deepening Obama depression.  The previous administration had a $700 Billion stimulation package but the lack of the current administration leadership has reduced world confidence in anything this socialist American administration does.
 
Almost half of Ukrainians say they desire Ikea products from Sweden more than any other global brand, yet the largest home-furnishings retailer hasn’t been able to crack the market in a decade of trying. The reason: it won’t pay a Russian Oligarchs bribes.  The Ukrainians were part of the Swedish kingdom before Peter the Great conquered them.  Putin's government is almost entirely financed by bribes which are one of the hidden taxes in socialist countries.  That is the reason Obama has gotten three times the business contributions of any honest Democrat before him and beat the Republicans who help businesses to create jobs.    Obama is a socialist and expects all businessmen to be corrupt and pay the Obama oligarchy to avoid harassment by the gun running Attorney General.   Standard and Poors is the first company to stand up to this most corrupt government in American history.
 
The French market has continued to decline since year 2000. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing.
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2003. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past. The Obama socialists are trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Ambassadorships and $billions in contracts for inept management of socialized medicine.  Look for world economies to soar when the socialists are no longer running America.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy 
Mar 31
Chicago PMI Mar 55.9 down from 59.8---
Apr 1
ISM Index Mar 53.7 slow growth 53.2 -- (50=no growth at all)
Construction Spending Feb 0.1% low and flat 0.1% --
Apr 2
MBA Mortgage Index 03/29 -1.2% terrible again -3.5% ----
ADP Employment Change Mar 191K down from 178K --- needs to be at least 300
Factory Orders Feb 1.6% 1.1% improved from -0.7% + but erratic
Crude Inventories 03/29 -2.379M down 6.619M – means higher prices
 
The Markets
April 3
The bigger the bubble, the deeper the collapse, and the greater momentum and damage that occurs.
 
Mar 31 
60 Minutes said currently the market manipulation that is going on is legal because there is no law against front running with insider high speed transaction information.  
Stocks like Tesla and many 3D printing companies and drug companies are enormously overvalued.  
The Obama government data is manufactured the same way all communist countries manufacture the data.  New hiring is down around 200,000 and needs to be twice as high for a recovery.  No good businessman in his right mind trusts this socialist administration.  The markets are churning and paper profits are no longer covering commission expenses.  That is what happens when there are hardly any individual investors willing to buy above the highs of the yr2000 DOTCOM bubble and the Obama/Frank Liar Loan Bubble yr2007 and where the current markets lost steam yr2014.  Note there was 7 years between the bubbles.
 
World bulk trade is still an Obama socialist economic poverty redistribution disaster. 
Look at the last 1+ years! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was five times higher than today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
 
Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This is not a good moment in time for holding equities other than depressed commodities.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
 

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