Thursday, May 15, 2014

May 16 President Eisenhower wrote to his brother, Edgar Newton Eisenhower, on 8 November 1954: “I believe this country is following a dangerous trend when it permits too great a degree of centralization of governmental functions. I oppose this — in some instances the fight is a rather desperate one. But to attain any success it is quite clear that the Federal government cannot avoid or escape responsibilities which the mass of the people firmly believe should be undertaken by it. The political processes of our country are such that if a rule of reason is not applied in this effort, we will lose everything — even to a possible and drastic change in the Constitution. This is what I mean by my constant insistence upon "moderation" in government. Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are H. L. Hunt (you possibly know his background), a few other Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid.

With the exception of the use of the term “stupid,” This sounds a lot like Eisenhower and it is attributed to him by Snopes.   If that is the case, Eisenhower would warn against running any Tea Party candidates like at least three idiots that quickly destroyed themselves in the last two major elections.  The Hunt Brothers became multi-millionaires investing in gold and silver twenty years later when Nixon, was elected and created the EPA, opened up our first talks with Red China,  cracked down on anti-American internal spies, and took the US Dollar off the gold standard.  
 
May 15   The carnage in the Bubble Brain stocks of Twitter, Facebook, gambling, and juvenile computer games may have begun.  These products are becoming a major cause of internet congestion, scholastic failure, dropouts, youth unemployment, and ignorance rising rapidly in America.  The Bubble Brain economic model is a fraud.  It is based on advertizing hits.  It has spawned a business of clutter designed to cause unintentional hits and frustrate users that accidentally hit ad buttons and saddle advertisers with worthless charges.  It also is slowing down internet access.  The Bubble Brain industry plans to rip off the users more by just slowing down access to educational sites so they can speed up access to imbecilic games, gambling and big ad sites.  That is what they propose with two levels of internet access speeds.
 
May 12 Theodore Roosevelt on Immigrants and being an AMERICAN
"In the first place we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the man's becoming in very fact an American, and nothing but an American...There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag, and this excludes the red flag, which symbolizes all wars against liberty and civilization, just as much as it excludes any foreign flag of a nation to which we are hostile...We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language...and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."
Theodore Roosevelt 1907
 
Barack Obama’s controversial friend and pastor, Jeremiah Wright was found guilty of a fraud scheme that siphoned thousands of taxpayer dollars intended for a not-for-profit work and education program known as 'We Are Our Brother’s Keeper.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/crime-courts/daughter-jeremiah-wright-convicted-fraud-scheme-n47841
 
World Economy
May 16  The Gandhi party has finally lost power in India.  India is back in business based on its new conservative government comments on policy issues such as abuse  of young girls and women, foreign direct investment, the fiscal deficit, the use of gold to stabilize the economy.  They have a super majority giving them the power to make big changes to cut corruption and abuse of women and children.  The Moslem community is very concerned and India promises to be a stronger nation and to resist the Pakistani Taliban terrorists.  Afghanistan is headed towards disintegration caused by Taliban terrorists slowly taking control as Obama pulls all troops out this year.
 
A prolonged political crisis is raising the prospect that Thailand will be Southeast Asia’s biggest economy to slide into a recession this year.
May 15  Bank Of England Governor Mark Carney said yesterday that the currency’s appreciation reflected the strength of Britain’s recovery. The pound has gained about 10 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past 12 months, and England is considering raising interest rates now that the austerity program has been successful.  Higher interest rates will initially stimulate the economy by providing a greater incentive for people and corporations to invest and hire workers instead of hoarding cash.
 
Russia’s first-quarter economic growth is the weakest in over a year as Putin’s aggression against NATO over Ukraine causes investment in Russia to shrive.
 
The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy-by-by.
 
If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.
 
The French market is about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past. The Obama socialists are trying to legally confiscate everything people earn while lining the pockets of their friends with Ambassadorships and $billions in contracts for inept management of socialized medicine.  Look for world economies to soar when the socialists are no longer running America.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
The world is losing confidence in Obama’s economic statistics which are now about as truthful as Comrade Brezhnev’s USSR statistics were when the USSR started disintegrating.   We have had at least six years of Obama blaming Bush and reporting Obama’s economic recovery beginning every quarter and yet every Obama policy has failed.  This is the “equality of poverty” that comes with Obama’s redistribution of wealth.  Too much government money is going into electronics designed to pacify the uneducated.  America now has an unemployable class of people created by Obama’s socialist policies.  How many poor people have the latest 55” flat screen TV, stereo electronics, are addicted to their cell phones and games, and are up to their ears in debt paying between 19% and 26% interest on their debt?  If you don’t know any such people you obviously are a liberal racist and avoid associating with them because they are now our fastest growing population.  This is why socialists want art, music, twitter, and beach combing to be qualified jobs to receive government subsidies and grants (not degrading welfare).   The Bubble Brain is the Obama administrations most costly phenomena and could take down the economy like 1933.
 
May 12
Treasury Budget Apr +106.9B declined  +$112.9B -
May 13
 8:30 AM Retail Sales Apr 0.1% sharply lower from 1.5% ---
That was just a spike in auto sales last month after winter
Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.0% down from 1.0% --
Export Prices ex-ag. Apr -1.2% falling 0.5% -- deflation hurts American deficit
Import Prices ex-oil Apr 0.0% down from 0.3% - price competition hurts exports
Business Inventories Mar 0.4%  up once again 0.4% --- means America is producing more than it is selling and fore bodes a slowdown ahead
May 14
MBA Mortgage Index 05/10 3.6% down from 5.3% -- means home sales are declining
PPI Apr 0.6% up from 0.5% --- Production costs are rising faster
Core PPI Apr 0.5% still increasing 0.6% --- core inflation is the major share of the production cost increase.
Crude Inventories 05/10 0.947M NA NA -1.781M 
May 15
AM Initial Claims 05/10 297K down from 319K +
Continuing Claims 05/03 2667K down from 2685K – leaving the work force
CPI Apr 0.3% up from 0.2% -
Core CPI Apr 0.2% flat from 0.2%+  
Empire Manufacturing May 19.0 looks suspicious up from  1.3 -
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Mar $4.0B down from $85.7B
Industrial Production Apr -0.6% sharply lower 0.7%--- contradicts Empire manuf. above
Capacity Utilization Apr 78.6% down 79.2%-- contradicts Empire manuf. above
May 16 
Housing Starts Apr 1072K makes no sense at all from 946K  In order to have significant housing starts building permits should have risen significantly for at least two months before.
Building Permits Apr 1080K up 9% from 990K
Mich Sentiment in May was 81.8 down sharply from 84.1 and well below the 150% level under the previous free-enterprise government.
 
The Markets
May 16  The thinly supported stock market is again ready for a large correction.  The drop in bond interest rates was due to a massive movement of funds out of something into bonds which drove up bond prices and forced the rates temporarily lower.   It takes 5 business days for investors to settle accounts so within a week there should be a significant reaction in the markets that lost all the cash flowing into the bonds.  So far the stock market volume is extremely thin making stocks vulnerable to large swings when investors move funds.
May 15  The stock market continues extremely thin and the flight to safety in the DOW stocks and in US Treasury Bonds has begun.  The carnage in the Bubble Brain stocks of Twitter, Facebook, gambling, and juvenile computer games has only begun.  These products are becoming a major cause of internet congestion, scholastic failure, dropouts, and ignorance rising rapidly in America.  The Bubble Brain stock economic model is a fraud.  It is based on advertizing hits.  It has spawned a business of clutter designed to cause unintentional hits and frustrate users that accidentally hit ad buttons and punish the advertisers who are slowing down user access.  They plan to rip off the users more by slowing down access to educational sites so they can speed up access to imbecilic games, gambling and productive ad sites.
 
This poetic video explains why the social business model is a stock market bubble about to pop as the boom box mania popped.  The children addicted to social media are the next generation of ego-centric unemployables like the Boom-Box zombies of the last generation.   Social Media is creating a generation of unemployable mental midgets.  They have near-zero useful content being stored between their ears.  Look how Obama gives this free mind numbing stuff to people on welfare the same market for the boom box and then the 54 inch TV screen was the status symbol.
 
May 7  The market is in the stratosphere and has no breadth.  Sell in May and stay away may be the best advice around.
May 5  Throwing money at the stock market no longer makes it go up relative to the highs of 2000 and 2007.  And here we are at the same relative highs seven years later at the end of another business cycle in 2014.
 
World trade is down 55.3% for the year to date and near a 15 year low.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.
 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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