Tuesday, June 17, 2014

June 20 Obama lost the smoking guns needed to try and convict the Obama appointees and IRS agents who were assigned by the Obama-Holder administration to illegally and unconstitutionally harass their American political opponents.

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/the-kelly-file/transcript/2014/06/18/cleta-mitchell-appaled-double-standard-over-lost-irs-e-mails
 
Bloomberg announced, “The two-year-old U.S. housing recovery is faltering.”
 
As unemployment insurance begins to end for thousands of people in California many counties fall below the 10% unemployed figure.  Unfortunately the labor force also has declined as people give up on looking for work and join the Obama welfare state.
 
It is apparent that the Mid East is afflicted with a religious problem just as Europe had in 1617-1647 with the Religious Wars.   Many say that this is not the time to get involved in a foreign religious matter especially with an incompetent administration.
 
June 17  The ambassador of Iraq claims Al Qaeda now has 1000 Bin Ladens thanks to America’s decision to abandon the Mid East.  But they all have been killing each other for 1200 years so perhaps Obama is right to leave them alone.  On the other hand some people say Obama is one of them and trying to destroy America.  That looks possible too with Obama allowing a surge of unsupervised South American youth to enter America through Texas and go on welfare and get citizenship and vote for democrat socialists.
 
This next market crash will be like none we have had in over twenty years because there is very little shorting going on.  If everyone is long when the crash comes everyone loses money in the decline and no one has money to make the market recover.  In the past the short sellers covered themselves and pumped their profits into the market.    That is twice the bang for the buck.
 
World Economy
June 20 The European Union’s discards its attempt to cap greenhouse-gas emissions over the next 16 years as the bloc’s biggest economies decide it was stupid not to burn cheap coal when the old USSR and the old Mid East terrorists are being set free by Obama to destroy the oil fields.  The current leader of the terrorists was a former prisoner of Obama’s a few years ago but irresponsibly released.
Colombia Lifts key rate to 4% and doubles dollar purchases as trade plummets.
June 17  Japanese shares fell the most in a month.
 
The European FTSE is at the highs of 2000 and 2007 but MSNBC/PRAVDA is still saying buy-by-by.
 
If you look at Germany where the people have perhaps the strongest work ethic in the world, their stock market has topped out too but their trend is upward only because the dollar is continually weakening.
 
The French market is about 60% of what it was fourteen years ago. At it most recent highs it is still is still down 50% from 2008 and down 60% from 2000.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFCHI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
Japan’s stock market appears to have topped and begun a new decline. It has declined since 1990 when it began Quantitative Easing because their Yen is dropping faster than the dollar.
 
The Swiss market still indicates stagnation since 2007. It has hit the highs of 2003 but could not make it to the highs of 2007. Obama has destroyed Swiss banking by attacking Swiss confidentiality that had protected people from the Hitlers and Stalins of the past.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESSMI&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 
American Economy
Jun 16
Empire Manufacturing Jun 19.3 14.0 down sharply from 19.0 ---
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr -$24.2B down sharply $4.0B---
Industrial Production May 0.6% outlier -0.3% +
Capacity Utilization May 79.1% flat 78.6%
Jun 17
Housing Starts May 1001K down sharply 1072K ---
Building Permits May 991K down sharply 1080K ---
CPI May 0.4% inflation up from 0.3% -
Core CPI May 0.3% core inflation up 0.2% -
Jun 18
Mortgage Index 06/14 -9.2% down sharply from +10.3% ---
Current Account Balance Q1 -$111.2B trade deficit up from -$81.1B
FOMC Rate Decision Jun 0.25% too low 0.25% -  does not encourage investment
Jun 19
Initial Claims 06/14 312K down slightly 317K
Continuing Claims 06/07 2561K increasing from 2614K ---
Philadelphia Fed Jun 17.8 13.0 falls from 15.4 -
The EU estimates that the US economy will rise less than 2% while the Obama administration is forecasting about 3%.
 
The Markets
June 20  If everyone followed the pundit’s advice to buy and hold for 5 or 10 years instead of twice a year, then stock market volume would drop to 80% to 90% off the already low volume.   Almost every hedge fund has a turnover of 100% to 400% each year.  Warren Buffet is perhaps the most successful but that is because so many people follow his lead and buy the stocks he holds.’
 
June 17  The stock market continues in the stratosphere on virtually non-existing buying but historically low hedging.  In the past hedging was a safety net for the market because it balanced the long and short side.  It allowed funds to profit in a balanced manner by selling the weak stocks in an industry short while buying the strong companies in the same industry.  Now the market is unbalanced.  The funds are also afraid to short or even hedge.
 
World trade is now down 59% for the year to date and near a 15 year low.  It is down 83% since 2007.  Look at the last 1+ years of world trade! Use the graph or snapshot option. Unfortunately they do not show back to 2008 when world trade was more than five times higher than it is today.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
 Look at the volatility index and you see that the market could fall much faster. This market has little volume or volatility.  So when volume picks up past history says the market will plunge.  This is not a good moment in time for holding equities.
 
 World market updates:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia http://in.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
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